World Population Year

THE POPULATION OF YUGOSLAV!

CI.CR.Ê.D. Series 1974 WORLD POPULATION YEAR

THE POPULATION OF YUGOSLAVIA

DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH CENTER

Institute of Social Sciences

Belgrade, 1974

FOREWORD

At its Twenty-fifth Jubilee Session, the General Assembly of the United Nations decided that 1974 would be de,voted to population problems, under the general appellation "World Population Year, 1974'. At the end of August 1974. the World Population Conference was held in Bucharest and numerous other gatherings given over to population problems are being held in various countries in connection with World Population Year. Furthermore, the Secretariat of the United Nations has drawn up a program of activities for this year. Similarly, in many countries special committees were set up to prepare for participation in the World Population Conference and to stimulate activity that will help draw fitting attention to population, as a crucial but neglected problem. In Yugoslavia, the Federal Executive Council set up a Federal Committee for World Population Year to supervise preparations for Yugoslavia's participation in the Bucharest conference and to promote activities in the domain of population study in this country. In 1972, the International Committee for Coordination of Demographic Research (CICRED) was established to coordinate demographic research. Its membership is almost a complete catalogue of world demographic institutes and other institutions dealing with matters related to population. The Committee has organized a number of meetings of its members and seminars on the most diverse population problems, defined priority areas of research and coordinated the compilation of national monographs on population. It is expected that more than sixty such monographs will be published in the course of 1974. With financial assistance from the Population Department of the United Nations, and the UN Trust Fund for Population Activity, CICRED has supported the publication of these monographs, which has certainly helped to make their number so large. Preparation of this English-language monograph on the population of Yugoslavia was coordinated by the Center for Demographic Research of the Institute for Social Sciences in Belgrade. The authors of its individual sections were: Dolfe Vogelnik: 'Population Growth' and 'Components of Growth'; Milica Sentie: 'Composition of+he Yugoslav Population'; Mladen Friganovic: 'Population Distribution, Internal Migration, Agricultural and Non-Agricultural, Rural and Urban Population'; Lazar Sokolov: 'Labor Force (Economically Active Population)'; Gordana Todorovic: 'Projections of the Population'; Milos Macura: 'Socio—Economic Conditions and Policy Related to Develo- pment and Population'. The appendix to the monograph contains certain detailed tables on population trends (fertility and mortality) and demographic structures. Presented there also is certain basic information on the sources of the statistical data and a bibliography of the works employed by the several authors of the monograph. It must also be mentioned that Jovan Ilic contributed a brief survey of the socio-political system, economic characteristics, and the like, of Yugoslavia, which has been incorporated into this foreword, below. It has been the intention of the authors and the editor of the monograph to keep its exposition simple and thereby accessible to a broad spectrum of readers, and not just specialized demographers. In view of the great regional variation in Yugoslavia in population trends and demographic structures, an effort has been made to make regional analyses all—pervasive. The editing of the mongraph was entrusted to Dusan Breznik. Translation into English was done by Nada Kronja—Stanic. To illuminate demographic processes, and especially the interdependencies of population development(_more fully, we present here the broad contours of social and economic development in Yugoslavia and regional differences in economic and other characteristics. Before the Second World War, Yugoslavia bore all the features of an . undeveloped agrarian country. More than 75% of the working population was engaged in agriculture — characterized by low productivity and low yields. Industry and other non-agricultural activities were poorly-developed and the rate of growth of the national income, around 2%, was hardly greater than the rate of population growth. As a consequence of the very, different historical backgrounds of the individual regions there was great regional differentiation in economic and social development, which was particularly reflected in the components of natural population trends and in the economic, educational and other structures of the populations. In the aftermath of the Second World War, development was even further retarded. Firstly and foremostly," Yugoslavia suffered enormous human losses (1,700,000 wat victims, (constituting 11% of its population) while in terms ot material losses its; war—devastation was amongst the heaviest in the world. After the close of the war, despite the very bad situation inherited, the nations and nationalities of Yugoslavia began to build their socialist" community. First the war—ravaged country had to be rebuilt and then a path chosen that would allow economic backwardness to be overcome as quickly as possible and promote the fastest possible advance in other fields: in health, education, standard of living, etc. The path of socialist industrialization was elected as the only way to resolve the accumulated problems. Yugoslavia is a federal state with social ownership of the means of production and social self—management as the fundamentals of its socio-economic system. As behoves the interests of all the nations and nationalities living in the country, it has a unified socio-political and economic system. Yugoslavia is composed of six socialist republics: Bosnia—Hercegovina (51,129 km2, 3,746,000 population), Montenegro (13,812 km2 530,000 population), Croatia (56,538 km2, 4,426,000 population), Macedonia (25,713 km2. 1,647,000 population), Slovenia (20,251 km2, 1,727,000 population) and Serbia (88,361 km2, 8,447,000 population). Within the framework of the Republic of Serbia there are the Socialist Autonomous Provinces of Vojvodina (21,506 km2, 1,953,000 population) and Kosovo (10,887 km2, 1,244,000 population). The Provinces participate directly in all federal forums and organs, that is, in the operation and advancement of the Yugoslav federative system. The economic development of the country since the Second World War has been dynamic in every respect. In pace of economic growth and depth of changes in the socio-economic structure, Yugoslavia is outstanding in the world. From 1947 to 1972 the social product multiplied 4.8 times (according to 1966 prices). The annual rate of growth of the social product in this period was 6.6% (or 5.3% per capita). The structure of the social product has undergone considerable changes. In 1947, agriculture accounted for 43% and industry 18% of the social product. In 1972 the situation was reversed, and industry accounted for 38% and agriculture for 19%. The socialist sector accounts for 80% of the social product today. Yugoslavia's transformation from an agrarian to an industrial-agrarian country is patent from the data cited. Indeed, the rapid development of industry has been the basic feature of the economic development of the country in the postwar period. Agriculture is the second most important economic sector. Before the last war it was. likewise, poorly developed even though it acounted for around 80% of the population. Agriculture developed slower than industry after the war because less was invested in it. Moreover, for a long time, it was the main source of car'tal formation for the development of industry and other activities. Only in 1957 did the situation begin to get better as more began to be invested in agriculture. In relation to pre-war levels, agricultural output has risen 1.9 times. The greatest part of output comes from the private sector since it holds 85% of the arable land. The remaining 15% belongs to the social sector. However, the social sector provides 24% of the social product earned in agriculture and 45% of the agricultural commodity trade. Productivity, then, is far greater on the socialist than on private farms, which are characterized by great fragmentation, poor organization and low productivity. As a fundamental system of spatial interlinking and integration, transport and communications have been paid considerable attention since liberation, and there has been rapid growth in this sector, especially in certain of its branches. The annual rate of growth in volume of services has been: 26% in air transport, 23% in motor transport, 13% in maritime, 10% in river and 4% in rail transport. At present, Yugoslavia has 10,417 km of railway tracks (almost 2,000 km electrified), 96,160 km of roads (nearly 30,000 km with modern surfaces), 1,522 million DWT mercantile shipping fleet, a million passenger cars (113,000 in 1963), around 350,000 other motor vehicles, 911,000 telephones, etc. Throughout the entire postwar period, commerce, together with hotels and catering and the tourist industry, has recorded a constantly high and stable growth in social product. The average annual growth rate over the period 1948—1972 was 8.7%, which has permitted continual expansion and modernization of capacities, the introduction of contemporary methods of operation and the like. The growth in commerce has contributed considerably to the advance of the rest of the economy and improvement in the standard of living. At present there are around 72,000 retail shops which means that there is one shop per 290 population (in 1952 there was one per 506 population). There has been especially fast growth in hotels and catering and tourism over the past 15 years. In that time the number of beds has increased 5.7 times, the number of employed 2.7 times. In 1972 there were 606,000 beds available, 440,000 of them in the social sector. From 1963 to 1972 the number of tourists swelled from 6 to 13 million. At the same time the number of foreign tourists has doubled. Foreign trade has also grown rather strongly since the Second World War. Namely, with the rapid development and modernization of industry, improvements in productivity, the introduction of new products, etc., it has gradually become possible for Yugoslavia to take part in the international division of labor. Commercial relations are now maintained with over 100 countries. There have been crucial changes in the structure of exports. The share of industry in commodity exports has increased from 59% in 1952 to 85% in 1972. From what has already been said'regarding the Yugoslav economy, it may be concluded that the material basis of the standard of living in the country is much better now than it was before the Second World War and in the initial postwar years. It is constantly improving. The population now has considerably more electric power available, a much greater assortment of industrial goods, more modern roads, commercial and catering establishments, more apartments, etc. than before. In 1951 there was 8.7 m2 of residential space per capita, in 1971 12.2 m2 In the 1971/72 school year there were 13,900 primary and around 2,370 secondary schools of various types in the country, and around 302,000 students enrolled. There are now around 145 students per 10,000 population, which puts this country amongst the world leaders. In 1972 a total of 9,715 books and brochures were published (circulation 53,800,000) of which 1,152 were printed in the languages of the national minorities (5.86 million). In 1971 there were 277 hospitals in the country with 113,000 beds, and around 11,400 other health institutions. In the same year there were over 19,000 doctors and dentists employed in the country. For each 10,000 inhabitants there are 13 doctors. The quality of the nutrition habits of the population has also improved. The proportion of cereals has diminished while the proportion of high—value animal products, fruit, vegetables, sugar, etc. has risen. From 1952 to 1972 per capita flour consumption declined by 21 kg, and the consumption of meat and fish rose by 17 kg, plant and animal fats and oil by 11 kg, fresh fruits and grapes by 15 kg, sugar by 18 kg. eggs by 90 pieces, etc. But still, it must be noted that the nutrition patterns of a considerable number of inhabitants is still unsatisfactory, for only 20% of the circa 3,185 calories consumed are of animal origin. Now, around 39% of personal income is spent on food (1952 : 54%). Parallel with the improvement in nutrition patterns, there has been a great jump in the consumption of industrial goods. Thus, over the period 1952—1972 per capita consumption of electric power rose from 5 to 381 kwh, soap and soap powders from 1 to 7 kg, textiles from 12 to 23 m, footwear from 0.5 to 2.4 pairs, etc. There has been especially strong growth in the consumption.of durable consumer goods. Certain characteristics of regional development. Natural conditions for econo- mic development vary in the different regions of the country. Furthermore, in the past 1

the different regions were subject to different political and socio-economic conditions of development. The northern and northwestern parts of present-day Yugoslavia, as integral parts of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, a developed capitalist state, attained a higher level of socio-economic development than regions that until 1912 were under Turkish control. Some differences date back to much earlier situations. For centuries the frontier between East and West lay on the territory of present—day Yugoslavia. At first this was the border between the Eastern and Western Roman Empires, then between Turkey and Christian Europe. In the pre-Turkish era the eastern part of the state was under the cultural sway of Byzantium and Istanbul, and the western under the influence of Rome and Western civilization. In Turkish times forceful Turkish—Moslem influences prevailed. In the 19th Century and later, influences from capitalistic central Europe began to gain sway. However, at the same time domestic, local, autochthonous intellectual creation, various forms of material production and specific forms (patriarchal system) of socio-economic organization developed in all regions. As the resultant of all these various influences, in 1918 (and to this day) there were considerable regional differences in the level of economic development, in the mode of life and work, in the physionomy of settlements and houses, in cultural level, etc. These differences did not diminish much in the between-war period. After the Second World War, the factor unifying all the diverse nations and nationalities was the construction of self—management socialist society. The members of six nations, several national minorities and many religions live in Yugoslavia; the country is multi—lingual, there are two scripts, etc. Precisely because of this complexity, the state is organised on a federative basis. Present—day.socialist Yugoslavia seeks to eliminate, or at least lessen the inherited socio—économie differences between individual regions. A Federal Fund for the Development of the Less-Developed Republics (Bosnia—Hercegovina, Montenegro, Macedonia) and the Province of Kosovo has been set up to this end. But, it must be admitted that so far the economic differences between the developed and the undeveloped regions of the country have not been narrowed successfully. Certain other differences (in schooling, health services, etc.) are however lessening. The highest level of development has been achieved by Slovenia, and the lowest by Kosovo. In 1972 per capita income amounted to 11,760 dinars in Slovenia and 1,945 dinars in Kosovo, that is, six times lower. Classed amongst the more-developed regions also are Croatia, Serbia Proper, Vojvodina; and amongst the less-developed Bosnia—Her- cegovina, Macedonia and Montenegro. The unevenness in socio-economic development after the Second World War is understandable because this dynamic growth started from a low level of development with insufficient capital formation, with unexplored natural conditions for development, with extensive areas lacking any industrial traditions, and without any real means of mobilizing the potentials of all the regions with equal intensity at the same time. The present differences would assuredly be greater had an active policy of promoting the development of the less-developed regions not been included in the program of socialist Yugoslavia. Current long-term plans envisage stronger reduction of regional differences in level of socio-economic development.

Dusan BREZNIK I. POPULATION GROWTH

Historical Overview

The cardinal event in the history of the peoples on the present—day territory of Yugoslavia, that which set its stamp on the whole of demographic development up to recent times, was the Turkish invasion of the Balkans in the 14th Century, and the enslavement during the 16th and succeeding centuries of a great part of these peoples. Turks settled throughout the area under Turkish rule - which at its apex encompassed the territory of all the present republics apart from Slovenia, the western part of Croatia and the southern Adriatic belt of Croatia and Istria — especially in towns, as officials, soldiers, craftsmen, and above all, as feudal landowners. The local, native population either, converted to Islam to better their hard economic and social lot, or lived" in total economic, social and religious subjugation, while a large segment began to migrate en masse with all their belongings, in the face of the Turkish tyranny. From the very beginning of the 15th Century the populace of Macedonia and Serbia began to flee to the southern and even northern regions of the Pannonian Plain, or even further, to Hungary whencefrom the Croatian and Hungarian population was in flight. As the Turks conquered all the central and southern parts of one—time Hungary, migratory streams shifted towards the northwest, to the remaining parts of the Austro-Hungarian Empire and the Adriatic littoral still outside the Turkish realm. When Hapsburg Austria began to organize the frontiers into special military administrative territories (military border zones) as bulwarks against Turkish expansion in the 16th Century, these abandoned regions were resettled, and in part returned to by peasants and their families, the male members of which had military duties. Similarly, inside, the regions held by the Turks there were continual mass evacuations.and resettlements. Once Turkish control was consolidated, frontier regions that had been devastated by border campaigns and marauding raids were repopulated by peasants from further south, for the Turkish feudalists needed serfs to work their land. At the same time there, was heavy evacuation from the Dinaric mountain regions, where the size of the population had climbed so high in the interim that land began to run too short to feed the people and.livestock — particularly in Montenegro, Hercegovina, Dalmatia, Southern Bosnia and Albania. Here the migratory flow led in part to the Venetian, Dalmatian and Istrian coasts, where the population had thinned out greatly and, in' far greater part, to the valleys and plains of the Morava in Serbia, Sumadija ; especially. Albanians moved out of the Albanian highlands and as pronounced herdsmen settled down on alpine pastures, or close by them. They also descended towards the ) northeast, onto the plains oí Metohia and Kosovo and the upper Morava valley, and also came down into western Macedonia. i Having reached a culmination geographically on the Balkans and along the Danube at the end of the 16th Century, the Turks began to pull back. But Turkish forays into the north and Austrian forays to the south continued on in waves after this and Vojvodina and northern Serbia remained empty as a result. The treaty of 1739 set the Turko-Austrian borders along the Danube, Sava and Una rivers, with Vojvodina changing hands and passing to the Austrians. A new wave of resettlement and immigration began, but now in reverse. All the Turkish and other Islamic population vacated the territories that had transferred to the Austrians, who then began a massive infusion of peasants from Germany, then Slovaks, and later Hungarians and other nationalities. At the same time, Serbs fleeing from Turk-held regions also moved in. This extensive colonization was concentrated in particular in Vojvodina, giving it a very heterogeneous ethnic structure. A similar process took place in the Venetian—Dalmatian border region, where the Turks were pushed back to the tops of the Dinaric mountains, and Serbs and Croats, together with Italians in the towns, settled the freed lands as the Turks retreated. It is characteristic of all the internal migrations of the 15th - 18th Century that they proceeded in stages and in various directions. Successive migrations from the southeast to the northwest of Yugoslavia (metanastasic movements'according to Jovan Cvijic) predominated. During this span of time there was a significant spatial redistribution of the ethnic structure. The Serbian and Croatian populations were commingled in the central and southwestern, and partly in the northern areas of the country. In the course of Turkish domination from the end of the 15th to the beginning of the 20th Century the Moslem population component was also formed in the central sections of the country (Bosnia—Hercegovina), while the Albanian population was preserved most compactly in the province of Kosovo. In the 19th Century the gradual liberation of present-day Yugoslav territory continued. The later a given region was freed the longer and more enduringly did it retain backward economic, cultural and social characteristics. The first to free themselves of the Turkish yoke were the provinces of Vojvodina and Slavonia. These have almost completely lost the features of the Turkish way of life, but the sequelae of the massive migrations, provoked by the arrival and departure of the Turks, are still evident ethnically. Through constant struggle Serbia gradually liberated itself, first its central areas, Sumadija, and later its southern parts, which were only united with Serbia in 1878. As Turkish control receded, the entire Turkish and Islamic population pulled out of Serbia, moving to other parts still under Turkish dominion: Bosnia, Kosovo, Macedonia and Bulgaria. On the other hand, when Serbia won its freedom, it became attractive to neighboring populations and there was intensive immigration from Bosnia—Hercegovina. Montenegro, Vojvodina and Croatia, as well as from Macedonia and even Slovenia (mostly to urban centers, Belgrade). Developments in Montenegro, which had managed to preserve its independence through ceaseless battle, were different. With its naturally limited living conditions, inaccessible mountains and infertile soil, it did not draw the surrounding populations. Bosnia— Hercegovina was occupied and annexed in 1878 by Austro-Hungary which left its Turkish feudal social structure intact and exploited it as a colonial' territory. One-time Raska (Sandzak), Kosovo and Macedonia remained under Turkish rule the longest, to 1912, and consequently there were no major migratory movements during that time. In conclusion, it must also be noted that there was massive emigration (foremostly 3f peasants) in the latter half of the 19th Century and right up to World War I (and even later") from Slovenia and Croatia (and other parts of the country after the war). This was brought about by the widespread impoverishment of the farm population in the middle of the l()th Century. After feudalism was abolished the peasants fell prey to banks and usurers in Iheir efforts to pay for land allotted them by their feudal lords, while the inroads made by capital from developed, central Austria (importation of cheaper industrial goods, railway lines, etc.) ruined the local, artisan—type economy, especially in the sphere of transportation. This migration, whose volume could already be documented numerically, .was initially directed towards the USA and then (after the USA imposed restrictions) towards western Europe, South America and Australia. The outcome of this briefly-described development is that the different parts of Yugoslavia are today at diverse levels of economic as well as cultural and social development, which has far—reaching consequences from the demographic standpoint. Using criteria such as indices of per capita national income, and the percentage of employed in industry and in agriculture, Croatia, Slovenia, Serbia Proper and Vojvodina may be classed as more developed regions, and Bosnia—Hercegovina, Montenegro, Macedonia and Kosovo as less developed.

Population Trends since the End of the 19th Century On certain parts of the territory of present—day Yugoslavia, population size can be followed through from the middle of the 19th Century, the time of the first population censuses taken in the Kingdom of Serbia and in the Austro—Hungarian Empire. For the entire territory, however, the earliest reliable population estimates relate to the period around 1880 (with the exception of regions under Turkish rule, for which retrogressive estimates based on 1910 data are necessary in the absence of direct data). At that time the population of today's Yugoslavia lived under diverse political formations: there were two independent states, the Kingdom of Serbia (its confines approximating the borders of 'Serbia Proper') and the Kingdom of Montenegro; Vojvodina (excluding Srem) was under direct Hungarian administration; politically, Croatia and Slovenia were parts of the Austro-Hungarian Empire; Bosnia-Hercegovina was annexed by Austro—Hungary; while the remaining parts (the southern regions of Serbia, Kosovo and Macedonia) were still subject to Turkish rule. After World War 1, in 1918. a united state, at first called the 'Kingdom of Serbs, Croats and Slovenians' and then renamed subsequently the 'Kingdom of Yugoslavia', was created by the unification of the greater part of what is now Yugoslavia. In the

10 between—war period, that is, during the lifetime of the 'Kingdom of Yugoslavia', two censuses were taken, in 1921 and 1931. A third was readied for 1941 but with the eruption of World War II did not take place. Four censuses were conducted after World War II, in 1948. 1953, 1961 and 1971. on the present territory of Yugoslavia, which was extended by the regions of istria and the Slovenian Littoral, totalling 8,262 km2 and 600,000 inhabitants (according to the 1931 census). Today, the Socialist Federated Republic of Yugoslavia coadunates six socialist republics: Bosnia—Hercegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Slovenia, and two autonomous provinces, the Autonomous Province of Vojvodina and the Autonomous Province of Kosovo, comprised within the Republic of Serbia, the remaining parts of which constitute 'Serbia Proper'. The dynamics of the population within the present borders of Yugoslavia from 1880 to 1971 is presented in Tables 1 and 2.

TABLE 1. - POPULATION OF YUGOSLAVIA, 1880-1971 (in 000)

Bosnia Monte- Croa- Mace- Slove- Serbia Year SFRY Herce- negro tia donia nia Total Proper Vojvo- Kosovo govina dina 1880 8877 1158 (207) 2479 (528) 1182 3323 1896 1187 (240) 1910 12962 1898 344 3375 876 1321 5148 3147 1526 475 1921 12545 1890 311 3427 809 1288 4819 2843 1537 439 1931 14534 2324 360 3789 950 1386 5726 3550 1624 552 1948 15842 2564 377 3780 1153 1440 6528 4154 1641 733 1953 16991 2843 420 3936 1305 1504 6979 4464 1699 816 1961 18549 3278 472 4160 1406 1592 7642 4823 1855 964 1971 20523 3746 530 4426 1647 1727 8447 5250 1953 1244 Growth index 1880- 1971 231.2 323.5 256.0 178.5 311.9 146.1 254.2 276.9 164.5 518.3 1921- 1971 163.6 198.2 170.4 129.2 203.6 134.1 175.3 184.7 127.1 283.4

The population of Yugoslavia has more than doubled over the past 90 years (growth index for 1971 in relation to 1880 is 231.2). However, this growth was very uneven in regard to regional distribution. On the basis of absolute data and relative indices of the rate of growth for the periods 1880-1971 and 1921-1971, the following growth types may be distinguished: Low—growth regions: which include Vojvodina, Croatia and Slovenia (growth indices range from 146.1 to 178.5 for the period 1880-1971, and from 127.1 to 134.1 for 1921-1971). These regions are characterized by low fertility today, inception of decline in fertility by the end of the 19th Century or beginning of the 20th, and a negative net migration in many periods.

II TABLE 2. — AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH OF THE POPULATION OF YUGOSLAVIA IN THE PERIOD 1880—1971 (per 1000)

Bosnia Monte- Croa- Mace- Slove-, Serbia Year SFRY Herce- negro tia donia nia Total Proper Vojvo-Kosovo govina dina 1880- 1910 13 17 17 10 17 4 16 17 8 23 1910 — 1 -2 -6 1 -7 1921 - 3 -0.5 -9 .-7 -9 1921 — 8 6 1931 15 21 15 10 16 17 23 23 1931 - 1948 5 6 3 -0.1 12 2 8 9 1 17 1948- 1953 14 21 22 8 25 9 13 15 7 22 1953- 1961 11 18 15 7 9 7 11 10 11 21 1961 - 5 1971 10 13 12 6 16 8 10 9 26

Note: Data refers to the present territory of Yugoslavia. Estimates are u.sed for Montenegro Macedonia and Kosovo in 1880. High—growth regions, including Montenegro, Serbia Proper, Macedonia and Bosnia—Hercegovina (growth indices range from 256.0 to 323.5 for 1880—1971, and • from 170.4 to 203.6 for 1921-1971). With the exception of Serbia Proper, these arc characterized by moderately high fertility, the beginning of an appreciable decline in fertility after World War II, and a net migration that has practically always been negative. For Serbia Proper, however, it must be noted that in fertility it properly belongs to the preceding group, and that for almost the whole period immigration was greater than emigration. A very high—growth region, namely Kosovo (growth index 518.3 for 1880-1971, and 283.4 for 1921-1971). To this day fertility is very high in this region although a slight decline set in after 1960. Migration has not had any appreciable effect when the whole period is considered. In all regions the two world wars were of great importance because of the direct and indirect losses incurred. Because of the regional differences in rate of growth, the regional distribution I>I ilie total population altered in the period examined. A clearer idea of the differences in population growth may be gained from the average annual growth rates per 1000 inhabitants in different periods, as presented in Table 2. The past 90-year period has been punctuated by events and the demographic

12 repercussions of the First (along with the Balkan Wars) and Second World Wars, and from this aspect can be divided into three sub-periods. The first spans the period up to the First World War (1880-1910), the second the interval between the wars, and the third the period after the Second World War. Up to World War I (1880-1910) the population grew at an annual rate of 13""" . Only three regions had low (Slovenia and Vojvodina) to moderately high (Croatia) growth. From 1910-1921 the population was falling. Population dynamics over the last 50 years, since the inception of a unified sta- te of Yugoslavia, has been characterized by a constant fall in the rate of growth. Average annual growth dropped from 15 to 14, and then to 11 and 10 pro mille. The rate of growth over 1931-1948 was heavily affected by war losses (around 1,700,000 dead). In general, population dynamics in Yugoslavia may be said to mirror trends in the developed countries of the world. In level today, the average annual growth rate is close to the rate in developed countries. For an entire 90 years annual growth in less developed Kosovo was sustained at the same very high pace (from 21 of 23 pro mille), and even rose in the last decade to 26 pro mille — a level found in many developing countries today. A regional breakdown of annual population growth, however, reveals certain essential differences. It must be remembered that apart from the two basic factors (fertility and mortality) internal and external migration have a significant effect on the rate of growth. These factors explain, for example, why Vojvodina, a more developed region, recorded a rise in annual growth in contrast to the general trend in the interval 1953—1961 (immigration from other regions was significant). On the other hand, there was a sharo fall in Macedonia during the same period, as a consequence of heavy Turk emigration from there (and the country in gênerai) at that time. Finally, in concluding this overview, when global trends ol population growth in Yugoslavia are broken down by economic development category, differences in growth are seen to be correlated to the phase of demographic transition, which is completed or in process of completion in four regions (Slovenia, Croatia, Vojvodina and Serbia Proper), only at the very beginning in Kosovo, and fully underway, around mid—course, in the moderately developed regions. This matter will be taken up in greater detail in the discussion of fertility dynamics.

13 II. COMPONENTS OF POPULATION GROWTH

Long-term Changes in Fertility

Three periods may be distinguished in the dynamics of the crude birth rate in Yugoslavia, presented in Table 3, on the basis of political system and economic and social conditions governing demographic processes. TABLE 3. — FERTILITY OF THE YUGOSLAV POPULATION, 1880—1973

Livebirths per 1000 inhabitants

Bosnia Monte- Croa- Mace- Slove- Serbia SFRY Herce- negro tia donia nia Total Proper Vojvo- Kosovo govina dina

1880-85 43.2 45.0 45.0 42.9 45.0 35.13) 45.5 45.7 45.0^ 45.0 1886-90 42.5 45.0 45.0 42.8 45.0 35.13) 43.5 43.2 43.71) 45.0^ 1891-95 42.1 45.0 45.0 41.9 45.0 34.8 43.0 42.4 41.71) 45.0 1896-1900 40.4 44.04 43.05 40.7 43.06 34.8 39.8 39.2 . 39.9 43.06 1901-05 39.8 44.04 43.05 39.3 43.06 34.07 39.0 38.0 39.9 43.06 1906-10 39.9 44.04 43.05 39.6 43.06 31.3s 39.2 38.5 39.4 43.06 1926-309) 34.2 44.3 37.3 32.6 43.1 '27.8 34.7 35.2 25.1 43.2 1931-34 32.6 40.0 31.2 30.0 38.6 25.7 31.6 33.5 25.4 37.6 1935-39 27.9 37.0 29.4 25.8 34.9 22.5 25.2 25.7 20.5 36.6 1950 30.3 38.6 30.0 24.8' 40.3 24.4 29.5 28.0 25.5 46.1 1950-54 28.8 38.2 32.1 23.2 38.4 22.8 27.4 26.1 23.3 43.5 1955-59 24.8 35.4 30.1 203 34.0 19.4 22.8 19.6 18.4 42.3 1960^64 22.1 31.8 26.9 17.2 29.4 17.9 19.7 16.6 163 41.7 1965-69 19.8 26.2 22.9 15.6 26.4 17.6 18.3 15.0 14.5 39.1 1970-73 18.0 21.1 19.4 14.6 22.8 16.7 17.7 15.0 13.0 36.4 Note: URatc in Hungary at the time; 2) The 45.0

Age—specific Female Fertility

Table 4 presents the age-specific female fertility rates in Yugoslavia by quinquennial groups in 1950, 1960 and 1970*: With the exception of the youngest age, which has actually shown a rise in most regions, in all age groups these rates are falling. Furthermore, the decrease is increasingly sharp with each succeeding age group, pointing to the presence and spread of conscious birth control, which is more intensive in the older age groups than among young females. The rise in the fertility of the 15-19 year olds is partly due to earlier marriage (a lowering of the average age at entry into marriage), and likewise to an absolute and relative increase in the number of marriages of young females, as well as a rise in illegitimate fertility.

* The data is also broken down by republic and province in the appendix.

15 TABLE 4. — AGE-SPECIFIC FERTILITY, TOTAL FERTILITY AND NET REPRODUCTION OF THE FEMALE POPULATION OF YUGOSLAVIA IN 1950, 1960 AND 1970 1950 1960 1970 Livebirths per 1000 females by age

General fertility rate (ages 15-49) 111.7 91.9 66.2 15-19 38.7 51.2 51.0 20-24 198.4 178.5 160.4 25-29 201.2 155.8 124.0 30-34 160.4 94.2 71.6 35-39 92.3 51.8 34.0 40-44 46.1 26.4 10.8 45-49 10.8 4.4 1.5

Total fertility rate per 1000 females 3740 2814 2267

Net reproduction rate (Ro) 1.49 1.19 1.00

Regional comparisons bring out essential differences between the developed and less developed regions, testifying to a close correlation between the level of economic development and age-specific female fertility. From this standpoint the 20-24 year group is especially important, showing maximum fertility in all regions except Kosovo, where the mode is shifted one group higher. It is outstanding that whereas in the more developed regions (Slovenia, Vojvodina, Croatia and Serbia Proper) maximal fertility occurred in this age group throughout the entire 20 years (1950—70), in the moderately developed regions (Bosnia—Hercegovina, Montenegro, Macedonia) there was a shift down during this period from the 25-29 to the 20-24 year group. This shift was accompanied by a marked drop in fertility in ages 25-29 and only a mild decrease in ages 20-24. The Slovenian population is characterized by a rise in the fertility rate of females aged 20-24 during the period examined. The influence of earlier marriages is evident. Since there was an appreciable drop in the fertility of the very next highest age group, the shift down of fertility to the younger group constitutes the effect of an organized and developed family planning system. Although female fertility in Kosovo was still high even at the end of the period examined, there was a downtrend in all age groups over the last two decades. This decline was of practically the same intensity in both of the most fertile age groups (ages 21-24 and 25-29; the index of decline was around 80 for 1970 as against 1950), considerably more intensive in the next two age groups (index around 60), and most intensive at ages over 40. It may be assumed that these changes reflect a trend towards the adoption of birth control amongst the female population of this region too, which is

16 otherwise distinguished by the highest fertility in Yugoslavia. In three regions (Serbia Proper, Croatia and Vojvodina) female fertility is very low. The total fertility and net reproduction rates indicate that female reproduction in.these regions is too low. The fact that their natural increase is actually positive is attributable to current age distribution and migratory movements, for generally younger people tend to migrate. Net reproduction is around unity in Slovenia, and above unity in the other regions (Bosnia-Hercegovina, Macedonia, Montenegro). In Kosovo it is high.

Legitimate and Illegitimate Fertility

Legitimate fertility (Table 5), after a slight rise in the youngest female age group and a mild decline in the 20-24 year group, begins to drop very rapidly after age 25, indicating that once they have achieved the desired number of children married couples opt for birth control. By contrast, with few exceptions, illegitimate fertility shows a slight uptrend in all ages.

TABLE 5. — LEGITIMATE AND ILLEGITIMATE FEMALE FERTILITY BY AGE IN YUGOSLAVIA; 1953 AND 1961

Livebirths.per 1000 females Total 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45^9 (15-49) Legitimate fertility

1953 160.6 280.9 307.4 234.2 161.7 98.9 45.9 10.0 1961 122.5 295.2 287.2 181.1 101.2 54.4 29.8 53 Illegitimate fertility

1953 19.6 10.7 35.9 41.6 33.6 16.3 4.4 1.4 1961 23.2 15.4 37.1 45.4 31.7 17.2 7.2 0.9

Just as in total female fertility, there are very significant regional differences in regard to legitimate and illegitimate fertility. Whilst legitimate fertility is highest in Kosovo, in the more developed regions it goes into sharp decline after the most fertile age (20-24 years), reflecting the spread of conscious birth control by married couples, i.e. the acceptance of family planning as a principle in line with their other aims and desires. As far as illegitimate fertility is concerned, it is also rising gradually in the less developed regions.

17 Female Fertility according to Socio-economic, and Educational Characteristics

The fertility of the population displays regional variations that are a function of Lhe complex interplay of socio-economic, socio—cultural, demographic and other factors related to the diverse histories of the several republics and provinces and their varying levels of economic and social development. However, demographic analyses in both this and other countries have demonstrated that fertility also varies to a considerable extent as a function of socio-economic and educational categories of the population. To bring this out, différente! female fertility is presented here in respect of economic category (agricultural versus non-agricultural population) and educational level (Table 6). Fertility v/as lowest amongst females with nonVagricultural occupations, those receiving incomes (family, old age or invalid pensions, welfare aid), followed by those actively engaged in agriculture, and those dependent on non-agricultural workers. It was highest amongst females dependent on agricultural workers. This ranking was the same for female cohorts age 50-54 in 1961 and 1971 (i.e. with birthdates from 1906 to 1911 and from 1'916 to 1921). The cumulative fertility of women passing beyond their fertile period declined in all these economic categories. This is in line with earlier observations on birth rate dynamics in Yugoslavia over the long—term period. There is a very clear correlation between fertility and educational level. The higher the education the lower the fertility. Studies of this correlation have shown that these differences in fertility are of less significance when the fertility of the population generally is high, that they are accentuated during secular decline in fertility when women with no or little schooling have far greater fertility than those with more. With time, the fertility of the low education groups also lowers and after demographic transition the differences fade. It can even happen that the lowest education group (when constituting a very low percentage) has lower fertility than the next highest educational group as a consequence of the interplay of social and economic factors, these women deciding for a small family because of either housing or income difficulties. The very low fertility of women with the highest level of education should gradually rise as broader strata of the female population attain this educational level and it is no longer pre-empted by women dedicated to their professional activities alone. Birth control and family planning developed spontaneously in Yugoslavia, as in other European countries. An expanding portion of the population, or married couples, decided for planning their families according to their desires regarding the number and spacing of children. Because birth control was in large measure achieved by means of abortion (prohibited at the time, except for medical reasons) and this frequently had a tragic outcome (illness and even fatalities due to inexpert conduct of the abortion), it was decided to liberalize the attitude of the Yugoslav legislation towards abortion. Now it is permitted on the basis of social as well as medical indications, in the hope of doing away with illegal, unprofessional abortions that often have fatal consequences for the woman. The commissions empowered to grant permission for abortion are obliged to take care that all the conditions necessary to postwar undesirable consequences are fulfilled (that the abortion is performed in a medical institution, only in the first three

18 TABLE 6. — CUMULATIVE FERTILITY AT AGES 50—54 BY ECONOMIC CATEGORY AND EDUCATIONAL LEVEL, YUGOSLAVIA, 1961 AND 1971

No. of females Average livebirths per female aged 50-54 in 1961 1971 1971°

Total 3.82 3.30 398976 a) Economic category

Active 3.07 2.60 139954 agricultural 3.46 3.01 96085 non-agricultural 1.73 1.70 42799 Dependents 4.38 3.93 208562 agricultural 4.85 4.56 89456 non-agricultural 3.73 3.55 119106 Income-recipients 2.52 2.38 41830

b) Educational level No schooling 4.77 4.46 159785 1-3 primary grades 337 3.10 21789 4 primary grades 3.00 2.77 122612 5—7 primary grades 2.63 2.43 38648 Primary school . 2.00 2.26 35676 Schools for skilled : workers 1.68 1.82 16178 Schools for highly skilled workers 1.36 1.60 227 Gymnasium 1.21 1.36 4076

Secondary vocational schools 1.42 1.39 5,466 Higher schools 1.10 1.20 1199 University 1.15 1.04 2632 months after conception, under medical supervision and with check-ups after the abortion, etc.). Abortion itself is considered the most undesirable form of birth control and constitutes only a last resort in enabling a woman to break off an undesired

1) The ' total ' figures include females for whom the appropriate economic category is not known, those working temporarily abroad, and those of unknown educational level.

19 pregnancy once it has occurred. The legislation is of the view that it is a basic human right and obligation of parents to freely determine the number of their children and their spacing. Article 191 of the Yugoslav Constitution determines that amongst the other freedoms, rights and obligations of man and citizen... "It is a human right freely to decide on. family planning. This right may only be restricted for reasons of health". To realize this right society must make the necessary information and means for family planning available to parents so that family size and birth spacing can be decided before the conception of a child. The emphasis is on prevention of undesired conception as the basic form of birth control. Paying full attention to the popularization of contraception and encouraging activities to this end, have proved the most rewarding approaches to family planning. The legal regulations, that is, the "Resolution on Family Planning" also formulate the duties of the social services (health, education, etc.), scientific institutions, social and other organizations and institutions in the field of family planning. Demographic surveys of fertility and family planning have shown that over 75% of married couples in Yugoslavia plan or opt for planning of family size. In the greatest number of cases relatively ineffective methods are employed (e.g. coitus interruptus) and consequently abortion is resorted to to regulate family size as desired. The number of abortions is starting to drop or stagnate in only a few regions. But it can be safely said that the number of illegal, most often inexpert abortions, which are the most dangerous healthwise, is decreasing. The frequency of abortion is one of the significant medico-social, demographic and educational problems of the moment. Many social . organizations (family planning councils), and social services (health'education, welfare services) have undertaken important actions in this field with the aim of eliminating abortion as a method of birth control to the greatest possible extent.

Mortality The dynamics of the general death rate since 1921 is presented in Table 7. Up to 1880, it is supposed that the general death rate was around 3O°/oo in the more developed regions of Yugoslavia (Slovenia, Croatia, Serbia Proper, Vojvodina) and that there were over 35 deaths per 1,000 population in the less developed regions (Bosnia-Hercegovina, Macedonia, Montenegro and Kosovo). A gradual decrease in mortality began around the middle of the 19th Century in the more developed regions, but it was only towards the end of that century and particularly during the first decade of the 20th that this process started up in the less developed regions. The earliest reliable mortality data for the entire territory of present-day Yugoslavia dates from 1921. but for the individual republics and provinces only from 1930, so that only estimates are possible for them in 1921.1) * A central legal document on family planning in Yugoslavia is the "Resolution on Family Planning of the Federal Assembly, passed on 26th April, 1969 (Sluzbeni List SFRJ, No.29, 8th May, 1969). It clearly enunciates the attitude of the legislation on family planning. Principles in relation to abortion are set down in the 'General Law on Abortion' (Sluzbeni List SFRJ, No.20, 1969). The new Constitution relegates this matter to the republics and provinces who pass special bills and regulations in the spirit of the generally adopted principles.

1) Statistical data on mortality is available for certain regions in the period prior to the First World War and in particular periods of the 19th Century.

20 TABLE 7. — MORTALITY IN YUGOSLAVIA FROM 1921 TO 1970

Bosnia Monte- Croa- Mace- Slove- Serbia SFRY Herce- negro tia donia nia Total Pro- Vojvo- Koso- govina per dina vo

Deaths per 1000

1921 20,9 (21) (17) (20) . (27) (17) (23) (22) (22) (27)

1930-342) 18.5 19.9 13.1 18.9 20.1 15.6 18.2 17.1 19.1 22.1 1935—392) 15.9 16.9 13.5 16.6 19.3 14.5 14.7 13.6 16.7 18.5 19392) 14.9 15.1 13.4 15.8 19.0 14.0 14.0 12.6 16.2 17.6 1947 12.8 12.8 6.9 13.5 13.7 13.5 12.3 11.1 15.2 13.0 1950-54 12.5 13.9 10.0 11.7 14.5 10.9 12.4 11,4 12.4 18.0 1955-59 10.5 11.6 8.5 10.1 11.7 9.7 10.2 9.3 10.3 15.7 1960-64 9.6 9.2 7.4 9.7 9.8 9.6 9.5 8.7 9.7 13.2 1965-69 8.7 7.4 6.6 9.7 8.1 10.0 9.8 8.4 9.6 9.7 1970-73 8.9 6.7 6.1 10.4 7.6 10.4 9.3 9.2 10.3 8.2

1) Mortality rates by republic and province tor 1921 estimated from the ratio of the general death rate for Slovenia and the other regions in 1931 /34. Over the past five decades the general death rate in Yugoslavia has fallen from over 20"w>to less than Wbo.lïie decrease was more intensive in the less rather than the more developed regions because of the age composition of the populations. Today, its level in the country as a whole and the republics and provinces individually, approximates that in developed countries. Following World War II the decline was steeper in the less developed regions, whereas in the more developed there was actually a gradual upturn as a result of the effects of demographic ageing processes. Mortality of the Montengrin population had already been low earlier. Mean life expectancy at birth is functionally dependent on the intensity of mortality, but the effects of the age structure on this index are excluded. As Table 8 shows, it has grown fastest in regions in which it was previously low, that is, where infant mortality and the mortality of other age categories were high. This process is continuing, parallel with the decline in infant and small child mortality since differential mortality in the other ages has already evened out. The sex differential in mean life expectancy is wide in the more developed regions. In Slovenia and Vojvodina it amounts to 7 years, one of the highest sex-differentials in the world. In the developed regions, mean life expectancy of males is either stagnating or even in gentle decline. This is due to a rise in the mortality of certain age groups of the male population. Mortality by Age and Sex

Age and sex-specific mortality in Yugoslavia is presented in Table 9 }. Since there are substantial trend differences between the more and the less developed regions, the regional aspect must be taken into consideration. * A republican and provincial breakdown of this data is given in the appendix. 21 TABLE 8. — MEAN LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH IN YUGOSLAVIA FROM 1952/54 TO 1968/70

Bosnia Monte- Croa- Mace- Slo- Serbia SFRY Herce- negro tia donia venia Total Pro- Vojvo- Koso- goviria per dina vo

1952/1954 • males 56.9 52.6 58.4 59.1 55.0 63.0 57.1 •59.1 58.3 48.6 females 59.3 54.8 59.9 63.2 55.1 68.1 58.8 61.1 62.1 45.3 1960/1962 males 62.2 58.6 63.9 63.9 59.9 66.1 62.7 64.3 63.6 57.0 females 65.3 61.5 619 68.8 62.1 72.0 63.7 66.7 68.5 55.8

1968/1970 males 64.8 62.9 70.4 65.2 65.5 65.0 65.5 67.2 65.8 63.6 females 69.2 66.5 73.0 71.3 67.3 72.4 69.0 70.8 71.4 64r6

TABLE 9. —AGE AND SEX-SPECIFIC MORTALITY IN YUGOSLAVIA, 1953, 1961 AND 1971 Age Deaths per 1000 population

1953 1961 1971 1971 male female m f m f f-xlOO

Total 12.8 12.0' 9.2 8.8 9.3 8.1 114.8 0 129.4 129.6 92.9 84.6 533 49.8 107.0 1-4 10.6 11.2 43 4.7 2.1 2,2 95,5 5-9 1.9 1.8 0.8 0,7 0.6 0.5 120.0 10-14 1.2 i.O 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 125.0 15-19 1.6 1.6 1.1 0.8 1.0 0i5 200.0 20-24 2.1 23 1.4 1.2 1.6 Ó.7 228.6 25-29 2.5 2.5 1.7 1.5 1.9 0.9 211.1 30-34 2.8 2.9 2.0 1.7 2,1 1.0 210.0 35-39 3.5 3,7 2.5 2.0 2,9 1.6 181.3 40-44 4.7 4.1 3.6 2.8 4.4 2.2 200.0 45-49 7.4 5.4 5.6 3.9 63 3.4 185.3 50-54 11.7 8.4 9.0 6.3 9,6 5.4 177.8 55-59 18.7 13.3 13.3 9.6 15.6 8.7 1793. 60-64 29.1 22.0 243 16.4 24.2 143 169.2 65-69 46.1 35.6 38.5 27.6 38.8 23.9 1623 70-74 68.9 57.5 59.3 48.0 60.6 43T5 139.3 75-79 1083 91.0 86,6 72.5 100.1 79.9 125.3 80-84 160.2 134.0 127.0 115.4 147.9 129.4 1143 85 + 240.1 198.8 171.5 149.6 2173 189.9 114.4 The data for 1953 and 1971 shows a decrease in mortality at all ages for both males and females in Yugoslavia as a whole, in Bosnia-Hercegovina and Kosovo. In Slovenia this was the case only for females; male mortality in this republic showed a decrease only amongst youth up to age 20. In all ages over 20 years it shov/s an uptrend. Comparison ofthe first (1953-1961) and second periods(1961—1971) shov/s that in Kosovo there was a steady decline in both male and female mortality in both periods (with some exceptions in the highest age group). By contrast, in Bosnia—Hercegovina, Macedonia and Montenegro there was a decrease in all age groups of both sexes only in the first period, while in the second, males from ages 20-50 showed rising mortality. In the Slovenian population (and, similarly, in the other more developed regions, namely Croatia, Vojvodina and Serbia Proper) the mortality of females of ail ages dropped in the first period, but the mortality of males over 55 years increased (with some exceptions). In the second period there was a slight uptrend in female mortality as well, while male mortality rose in all ages over 20. In Yugoslavia excessive male mortality is particularly marked in the populations of the more developed regions. In Kosovo, female mortaiity in 1953 (particularly infants and youth, and right up to age 54) was still the higher, as is typical of high-mortality populations. However, this female disadvantage had virtually been erased by 1971. It will be seen from the foregoing that during the postwar period there have been radical changes in age-specific mortality. The mosr significant drop occurred in infant and small child mortality, and then in the mortality of youth and the young middle-aged population. Generally, it may be said that, infants aside, mortality in Yugoslavia is low. Nevertheless, comparisons with countries with the lowest mortality rates underscores just how much room there is for improvement under contemporary conditions. Curative and preventive medical services cannot accomplish this alone (although their role is. decisive), rather the entire population must take part (elevating health and hygiene culture, nutrition habits, etc.). The earlier regional mortality differentials are now evident only amongst the youngest groups (children to 10 years of age) and only slightly so amongst females in the reproductive period. Otherwise, these regional differences have virtually vanished, or else the balance has swung to the disadvantage of the more developed regions (particularly their male populations). Research into excessive male mortality should promote efforts in the fields of medicine and education, and further, regarding nutrition habits and the eradication of harmful habits that may be influential in the higher mortality of males (smoking, alcoholism, etc.;. The considerably higher incidence of suicides and accidents among the male population is another factor affecting the level of male mortality. Research has shown this to be decisive when sex differentials for ages 20—39 are examined. The extent to which biological factors are operative in raising male mortality has not yet been sufficiently clarified.

Infant Mortality

Over the last 20 years infant mortality in Yugoslavia (Table 10) has dropped by over 50% on average, signifying substantial improvements in medical services and post-natal care for the mother and child. The decline, however, has not been uniform

23 TABLE 10. — INFANT MORTALITY IN YUGOSLAVIA, 1931—1973

Serbia SFRY He ce ^onte" Croa- Mace- Slove- - * neero tia donia nia Voivo- govina ^ Total Proper ¿¿n Kosovo Infant deaths per 1000 livebirths Infant mortality rate

1931 164.7 160.1 118.6 203.6 175.9 138.3 149.7 121.6 208.1 196.5 1934/37 143.0 139.3 122.6 172.4 137.3 116.3 135.8 110.4 194.8 161.7 1950/54 116.3 135.5 89.0 110.8 139.2 69.6 112.1 96.4 119.6 155.6 1955/59 98.2 118.2 77.6 83.1 126.1 45.1 96.1 79.0 89.2 145.0 1960/64 81.4 95.9 61.5 6Ö.5 117.9 30.4 82.5 63.2 65.6 132.3 1965/69 62.4 73.0 45.0 42.3 96.5 27.0 63.9 46.0 46.4 106.0 1970/73 48.2 55.0 29.4 29,5 79.4 22.1 51.2 36.6 30.8 86.9

Neonatal imortality rate Deaths of infants aged 0-29 days per 1000 livebirths

1950 44.9 37.3 29.4 51.1 56.0 35.0 46.0 44.1 63.3 41.4 1960 43.2 32.8 23.9 35.1 41.4 20.4 37.1 30.7 40.0 44.2 1970 23.3 23.8 17.8 20.6 29.5 16.5 24.9 21.8 23.0 29-8 Post—neonatal mortality rate Deaths of infants aged 1 to 11 months per 1000 livebirths

1950 73.7 88.3 72.5 67.2 80.7 47,2 72.1 60.1 81.8 100.0 1960 53.5 74.2 42.5 35.4 73.1 14.7 49.0 38.0 33.5 88.3 1970 32.2 45.3 11.2 13.6 58.5 8.0 31.4 18.1 12.7 66.5

regionally. It was greatest in the more developed regions (Slovenia, Croatia, Vojvodina and Serbia Proper) and in Montenegro, while advances in the others (Kosovo, Macedonia and Bosnia—Hercegovina) have been smaller, and in 1970 regional differences were still considerable. The reduction in the developed regions came primarily with a sharp drop in post-neonatal mortality that was more meager in the other regions. Obviously, the less favorable economic and social conditions, primary factors in post-neonatal mortality are the main stumbling-block to faster reduction of infant mortality in these regions. It must be pointed out that although in the more developed regions 80-99% of all births take place in medical institutions under professional supervision, only 50-60% do in the moderately developed regions, and less than 30% in Kosovo.

24 Mortality according to Marital Status

In all ages, the unmarried population has higher mortality than the married (Table 11). The mortality of divorced males is higher than that of divorced females. Widows and widowers have the highest mortality rates at all ages, and widowers a third higher than widows, presumably because they have greater difficulty in adjusting to their new life situation after the death of their spouse. TABLE 11. — MORTALITY ACCORDING TO MARITAL STATUS AND AGE IN YUGOSLAVIA IN 1961

Deaths per 1000 population by age Marital 65 and 35-49 status Total 15-19 20-34 50-64 over Total 9.7 1.0 1.6 3.2 12.2 65.7 Single males 3.4 1.1 2.2 6.9 18.6 69.5 females 3.9 0.8 2.1 . 4.7 11.8 57.2 Married males 9.6 0.5 1.5 3.4 13.8 60.2 females 5.2 0.7 1.2 2.6 8.8 39.7 Widowed males 64.5 _ 4.0 8.8 22.5 104.5 females 37.2 _ 2.3 3.5 12.5 74.2 Divorced males 14.1 — 3.2 7.4 26.1 63.3 females 5.8 - 2.5 3.3 9.4 49.2

Cause: Mortality

With the improvement of the health services, the advance of the medical sciences and the greater health culture of the population as a whole, there have been significant shifts in the causes of deaths. The proportion of deaths due to infectious diseases, tuberculosis and respiratory and intestinal diseases has diminished significantly and the incidence of such causes as coronary diseases, cancer and cerebro-vascular diseases, thai is, the causes of death of older age groups, has grown. Shifts in age structure of ilu1 population, that is demographic ageing, lie behind these changes. There are considerable differences between the more and the less developed regions in the cause structure ol deaths, which are a function of the high level of infant mortality on the one hand, and the high incidence of deaths due to infectious diseases, tuberculosis, and respiratory and digestive diseases on the other, especially in Bosnia—Hercegovina, Kosovo and Macedonia. Over the last decade, accident mortality in Yugoslavia has soared, particularly amongst the young and middle-aged. Accident-prevention measures by the relevant public services have not kept pace with the rapid motorization of the population, and nor is prevailing traffic conduct conducive to reducing deaths due to traffic accidents to the lowest possible level (observance of traffic rules, avoidance of driving under the influence of alcohol, etc.).

25 The problem of differential mortality according to various characteristics (social and occupational, rural versus urban sub-groups, etc.) is evident in the Yugoslav population. This matter deserves more attention, but it may be pointed out here that as mortality declines, that is, as health- services and the health culture of the population advance — there is a trend for these sub-group mortality differentials to diminish.

Natural Increase of the Yugoslav Population

It is apparent from the foregoing that both components, fertility and mortality, have had very varied effects on the natural increase of the Yugoslav population. Throughout the 19th Century it was a function of both high fertility and high mortality. Only towards the end of the century and the beginning of the 20th did a decline set in in mortality and, in the more developed regions, in fertility. These processes gained momentum somewhat in the between-war period, when the rate of natural increase ranged between 16.O°/oo (1921) and 11.0%o(1939). Nevertheless, in this period, too — particularly in some regions - natural increase was significantly influenced by the relatively high mortality rate. Directly after the war, natural increase was very high (around 17.O°/oo) due to a fertility rise in the compensatory period, coupled with the already low mortality. Over the last 20 years, there has been a constant downtrend (9.O°/oo!n the period 1970-1973 on average annually) to a level on a par with the average for developed countries of the world. Today, natural increase is largely a function of the fertility component, although, due to the action of demographic ageing processes, the mortality component is gaining in importance, particularly when the more developed regions with their older populations are compared with the more youthful, less developed regions. The regional differences in natural increase are very accentuated. They are enhanced by differences in mortality rate. In the more developed regions (Vojvodina. Croatia, Serbia Proper and Slovenia) the rate today (1970—1973) ranges from 3 to W\v, in tho less developed (Montenegro. Bosnia—Hercegovina and Macedonia) from 13 i<> 15"™. and in the ieast developed (Kosovo) it is very high, around ZS'i'.w (on average for the period).

External Migration

The balance of migration in Yugoslavia has affected the population dynamics of the country for more than 100 years. In relation to other countries, Yugoslavia as a whole is an emigratory region. In the past there have virtually always been more emigrants. Economic motives have in the main been the primary reason for migration of tho population to other countries. Prior to World War I (particularly from 1880 to 1910) overseas migration (to the USA and elsewhere) tended to predominate, especially from agriculturally depressed parts of the country. Subsequently, in the between—war period, European migration was the heavier, while in the period following the Second World War these preferences were more blurred. Over the last 50 years Yugoslavia has lost 1 0-20";«nf its natural increase, that is to say. net migration amounted to 1 to 2%> of the total population, and was negative. Accordingly, population trends, as the resultant of natural (fertility and mortality) and mechanical (immigration and emigration) components of population movement, as noted, were 10 to 20% lower than natural increase. Estimates of external migration are only partly based on direct statistical data, and are partly derived by various methods. For the period between the two wars data is available on external migration to European and non—European countries from 1930 to 1939. These show that the annual number of emigrants was around 18,000 (13,200 to European and 4,800 to non—European countries), and the annual number of »migrants around 12,000 (8,200 from European and 3,700 from non—European countries), giving a net migration of -6000 each year. For the period up to 1930 the only data is for non-European migration. This was slightly less intensive after 1920, began to rise and then, after the Depression, dropped sharply. During the Depression return migration from non-European countries was considerable, and in 1938 and 1939 from European countries. Between the 1948 and 1953 population censuses there are only unofficial estimates of external migration. According to one such estimate, annual net migration was then around -30,000, while according to another it was around —20,000. Yet, according to data published in the Federal Statistical Yearbook, total annual immigrants over the period 1953—1961 amounted to just over 1,500, and emigrants to around 35,000. The number of emigrants is considered to be considerably underestimated, most probably by somewhere around 12,000-17,000 per year. It follows, then, that annual net migration over this period ranged from —45,000 to —50,000. The statistical records are also believed to be incomplete regarding the volume of emigrants (persons requesting migration passports) in the period 1961-1971. These put the annual number of emigrants at 8,300 and immigrants around 900. Verification by means of the census (persons declaring that they settled in Yugoslavia over 1961-1971) indicates that the number of immigrants amounted to over 2,600, while from the vital statistics (data on population growth, natural increase and the number of immigrants) the number of emigrants is computed as around 25,400 per year. Accordingly, there was a negative annual net migration of around -22,000 per year. This estimate is probably slightly inflated. By way of summary, then: — negative net migration increased up to 1961, and then declined; - in the period examined, the rate of negative net migration ranged from 1-2 °/oo, immigrants equalling around one—tenth of emigrants. The motives for external migration were largely economic in the period between . the two wars and, due to the readjustments of the Yugoslav borders and the radical social changes, largely political in the period between 1948 and 1953. From 1953 to 1961 the flow of emigrants comprised mostly Turkish nationals. In the last decade economic motives have once again taken ascendancy. In the period of the Second World War, or rather, towards the end of the war, there was heavy emigration of German nationals. More recently, especially since 1964, a new form of external migration has assumed particular importance, namely the temporary departure of Yugoslav citizens to work in other, usually more developed, European countries. The 1971 population census

27 recorded a total of around 672,000 Yugoslavs temporarily working abroad, mainly in developed European countries. The greatest percentage were situated in the Federal Republic of Germany (61.2%), followed by Austria (12.3%) and elsewhere. Job-seeking ;ibroad has developed as a consequence of an over-supply of labor in the country. an increased demand for labor in the developed countries,and furthermore,higher earnings abroad. Moreover, it must be pointed out that there were no restrictions whatsoever in regard to the departure of Yugoslav citizens to seek work abroad. It is estimated that the •number working temporarily abroad has stagnated since 1973, but that it is nonetheless higher today than in 1971. With due recognition of the short and long-term effects of this migration, and the great importance of these problems, the following issues are being examined in Yugoslavia: protection of the rights of Yugoslav workers abroad, control of the volume of emigration, finding jobs for returning workers, and efforts to reduce the number of Yugoslavs temporarily working abroad in the foreseeable future.

28 Ill COMPOSITION OF THE YUGOSLAV POPULATION

From the standpoint of demographic (age and sex), educational, economic and other characteristics, the composition of the Yugoslav population differs in many respects from that in neighboring countries, and even other countries in Europe. This has been conditioned by numerous factors: historical, geographical and socio-economic.

Sex and Age Structure

The Yugoslav population as a whole is characterized by an excess of females (Table 12), with regional differentials in sex structure as a function of the levels and trends of fertility, sex—specific mortality, and to some extent, migratory movements.

TABLE 12. — SEX STRUCTURE OF THE YUGOSLAV POPULATION, 1921—1971

Census Number in 000's Percentage Year Total Males Females Total Males Females 1921 12545 6154 6391 100.0 49.06 50.94 1931 14534 7188 7346 100.0 49.46 50.54 1948 15842 76 ! 5 8227 100.0 48.07 51.93 1953 16991 8232 8760 100.0 48.45 51.55 1961 18549 9043 9506 100.0 48.75 51.25 1971 20523 10077 10446 100.0 49.10 50.90

The sex structure has been affected considerably over the past 45-50 years b\ wartime events. The highest surpluses of females occurred directly after the wars. Then, as a consequence of the sex composition of the liveborn, the masculinity rate of the overall population began to rise and to show a tendency towards balancing out of the sexes. Analysis of the age-specific masculinity rates shows that the masculinity coefficients are over 1000 up to age 30-35, when balance is achieved (1971), and that

29 they then go into a decline, the greatest female excess occurring amongst the elderly. High-fertility regions have an excess of males (in certain periods female mortality was also the higher), while the situation is reversed in low-fertility regions. Kosovo and Macedonia are the only regions in Yugoslavia that have consistently had a higher number of males at all censuses (Table 13). As shown in earlier sections, the mortality sex differential is particularly pronounced in the developed regions (Slovenia, Croatia, Vojvodina, Serbia Proper). These same regions also have a positive net migration over long distances, and males take the lead in these migrations.

TABLE 13. — MASCULINITY BATIOS IN YUGOSLAVIA, 1921—1971

Bosnia Mont Croat-Mace Slov- Serbia SFRY Herce- enegro ia -donia enia Total Proper Voj- Kosovo govina vodina 1921 966 1045 995 961 986 937 943 925 958 1007 1931 981 1040. 997 955 1015 953 976 972 964 1036 1948 926 931 894 881 1026 882 944 940 917 1040 1953 940 947 925 897 1023 899 956 953 926 1043 1961 951 953 945 914 1020 916 967 959 949 1045 1971 965 960 959 935 1027 938 . 977 970 950 1050

The age structure of the population, under the influence of secular fertility dynamics, shows trends typical of demographic ageing (Table 14, Graph 1). As a consequence of regional differences in fertility dynamics in the past and today, the age distribution of the populations display regional differences that are similar to those found on a world scale (Table 15).

TABLE 14. — AGE DISTRIBUTION OF THE YUGOSLAV POPULATION, 1921—1971

Years of age Total 0-19 20-39 40-59 60 and over

1921 100.0 45.3 28.3 17.7 8.7 1931 100.0 43.7 30.9 17.0 8.4 1948 100.0 43 A 28.1 19.8 8.7 1953 100.0 40.8 29.4 20.9 8.9 1961 100.0 38.5 32.5 19.0 10.0 1971 100.0 36.5 30.1 20.8 12.6

30 SEX AND AGE STRUCTURE OF THE POPULATION OF YUGOSLAVIA, 31. MARCH 1953, 1961 AND 1971.

•« ljo loo . 50 oo jo loo 150 zoo 25a 230 aoo 110 w 50 « o 30 iw 150" aw 250

31 TABLE 15. — AGE DISTRIBUTION OF THE POPULATIONS OF THE REPUBLICS AND PROVINCES, 1971

Age Bosnia Mont- Croat Mace Slov Serbia group —Herce enegro ia donia enia Total Proper Voj- Kosovo govina vodina Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 0-19 45.4 42.8 31.5 43.0 33.2 34.2 31.3 30.0 52.8 20-39 29.8 29.0 30.0 30.2 30.1 30.2 31.0 30.6 26.2 40-59 16.7 16.7 23.0 17.7 21.9 22.2 23.6 23.2 13.1 60 + 7.7 11.0 14.9 8.8 14.8 12.9 13.6 14.8 7.1

.Note: Differences to 100.0 are accounted for by the unknown'group.

In contrast to most other European populations, the age structure in Yugoslavia is still distinguished by a relatively high proportion of youth and a contingent of the aged that is still small, comparatively speaking. The youngest age contingent decreased throughout the period examined and there was an upturn in the proportion of the middle-aged (20-59). Only in the period after 1961 was there a downtrend in the lower middle-age group (20-39), as a consequence of the depressed fertility of the Second World War, while the decline in the proportion of upper middle-aged (40-59) in 1961 may be ascribed to the effects of World Wars I and II (lowered fertility in 1912-1918, and heavy war casualties in these and other age groups in the Second World War). The percentage of the elderly mounted throughout the period. Great differences are found when shifts in age distribution are analyzed regionally. Regions with a high to very high relative fertility have a high proportion of youth and a lower proportion of the middle—aged and elderly (Kosovo, Bosnia-Herce- govina, Macedonia and Montenegro). Tlic cither regions are characterized by demogra- phic ageng processes of a higher ordci. It is noteworthy that in Kosovo there has been no tendency for the elderly population to increase and that the proportion of youth is actually on the rise. Namely, the gradual downturn in fertility that began after 1960 did not lower the proportion of the young because it was offset by a significant decrease in infant mortality, which has tended towards rejuvenation of the population. For practically 50 years, there has been no change in the age structure of the Kosovo population because a high level of fertility has been maintained throughout. Outstanding in the current age distribution of the Yugoslav population is the slight rise in the working—age contingent (in 1971 15—64 year old males and 15—59 year old females made up 62.6% of the total population as against 61.9% in 1953). In the more developed regions the working—age contingent makes up 63 — 66% of the population, and in the other regions 58—60%, with the exception of Kosovo where it comprised around 51% in 1971. It follows then, that the demographic circumstances of the formation of the labor force differ very widely regionally, as a function of the relative size of the working-age population.

32 The shifts in age structure are even more pronounced in the agricultural population - due to the drain-off of the agricultural labor force to other economic sectors and the specific age composition of the population lost in this way. There ¡s, therefore, a marked trend to ageing of the labor force in this population category. The age structure of the urban population is similarly distinctive. This is especially the case in those towns or cities in which over half of the population are immigrants. Namely, migrants are predominantly between ages 20-35. As a consequence, the urban age structure is favorable from the standpoint of the formation of the labor force, especially where the population is being swollen by immigration. The age cohorts entering the working contingent of the population are significant from the employment standpoint. Since the birth rate was high in Yugoslavia in the compensatory period (1948-1954), the contingents of 20 year olds have been very strong over the period 1968-1974, exerting demographic pressures on employment which will continue into the forthcoming period because of the upward shift of the age • of entry into economic activity with the prolongation of schooling, and because there was a significant drop in birth rate only after 1958-1960.

Distribution by Marital Status

In those countries in which fertility is tied mainly to legal unions (in Yugoslavia over 91% of liveborn children are legitimate) the marital status distribution of the population plays a very crucial role in population replacement. In these countries population replacement is determined to a large extent by the proportion of the fertile population that is married, the age at entry into marriage, and of course, the fertility of marriage. Formal criteria of marital status are employed in Yugoslav population censuses and other demographic investigations conducted by official statistical services. There have been considerable swings in the distribution of the population according to marital status since the foundation of Yugoslavia (1918) up to the present time, mostly as a result of the wars which disrupted nuptiality on the one hand, and on the other left a great mass of war widows. The percentage of single males and females was high immediately after the wars and subsequently decreased (Table 16). TABLE 16. — PERCENTAGE OF SINGLE MALES AND FEMALES AGED 15—59, YUGOSLAVIA

Population %of %of census bachelors spinsters 1921 35.1 26.0 1931 34.0 24.1 1948 35.6 28.0 1953 34.6 27.5^ 1961 30.7 23.1 1971 34.7 25.6

33 TABLE 17. — PERCENTAGE OF WIDOWS IN THE IS—59 AGE GROUP, YUGOSLAVIA Population %of census widows

1921 12.7 1931 9.6 1948 11.0 1953 9.4 1961 7.0 1971 6.1

As a result of male war casualties and the higher mortality of males in general, and compounded also by the low frequency of remarriage by females, the percentage of widows is very high — four to five times higher than the percentage of widowers. As the data shows, the percentage of widows climbed immediately after the First and Second World Wars. With the liberalization of legislation on divorce after the Second World War there has been a constant rise in the incidence of divorced persons in Yugoslavia (Table 18). TABLE 13. — PERCENTAGE OF DIVORCED PERSONS IN THE 15—59 AGE GROUP, YUGOSLAVIA

%of %of Population divorced divorced census males females

1921 0.30 0.41 1931 0.42 0.63 1948 0.46 0.77 1953 0.77 1.35 1961 0.90 2.05 1971 1.07 2.60 Both absolutely and relatively, the frequency of divorced females is greater than than of divorced males because of their slimmer chances for remarriage. In absolute terms, there were twice as many divorced females as males at the 1971 census which recorded 189,515 divorced females and 80,102 divorced males. An idea of the situation in regard to celibates in Yugoslavia may be gained by examining the number of bachelors and spinsters in the 40—59 age group as recorded by the last census, in 1971. At that time there were 81,667 bachelors, or 4.0%, and 138,897 spinsters, or 5.9% of the age group (Table 19). The frequency of bachelors of this age .was highest in Slovenia followed by Montenegro and Vojvodina, and lowest in Macedonia and Serbia Proper. As regards spinsters, the situation is a little different in that their frequency was greatest in Slovenia, followed by Montenegro and Croatia, and lowest in Macedonia and Kosovo.

34 TABLE 19. — FREQUENCY OF BACHELORS AND SPINSTERS IN THE 40—50 AGE GROUP, 1971 CENSUS

Absolute number % Bach- Spin- Bach- Spinsters elors sters elors Yugoslavia 81.667 138.897 4.00 5.94 Bosnia—Herceg. 9.597 22.721 3.31 6.39 Montenegro 2.219 4.611 5.38 -9:32 Croatia 23.140 43.626 4.90 7.72 . Macedonia 3.230 2.683 2.18 1.77 Slovenia 12.870 27.891 7.43 13,19 Serbia 30.611 37.365 3.34 3.72 Proper 16.314 21.311 2.69 3.19 Vojvodina 11.695 14.298 5.8 5.62 Kosovo 2.602 1.756 3.12 2.10

Educational Structure of the Population

Literacy and educational status are certainly two primary variables in any examination of the educational structure of a population. What is more,*they are the only two variables for which data is available from the censuses. Illiteracy is still a major social problem in Yugoslavia. According to the .last population census in 1971, the percentage of illiterates (amongst the population aged 10 years and over) was 15.1%, with 7.5% of the male population illiterate, and 22.2% of the female population. Nonetheless, great strides have been taken in overcoming illiteracy in the postwar period (Table 20), for as the respective censuses show, 44.6% of the population was illiterate in 1931 and as much as 50.5% in 1921. This problem, then, is a legacy of the past that cannot be eradicated so very fast.

TABLE 20. — PERCENTAGE OF ILLITERATES OVER AGE 10 IN YUGOSLAVIA

1948 1953 1961 1971

Total 25.4 25.4 21.0 15.1 Males 15.4 14.1 11.0 7.5 Females 34.4 35.8 30.2 22.2

Bearing this in mind, such global illiteracy figures cannot suffice. The problem must be viewed in relation to the age structure of the population (Table 21). The very low percentage of illiterates in the group aged up to 35 years, particularly amongst the males, speaks of the advances made after the war with respect to compulsory education and, accordingly, literacy,- because this group was given the opportunity to have regular

35 TABLE 21. — AGE AND SEX DISTRIBUTION OF ILLITERATES IN YUGOSLAVIA IN 1971

% of illiterates Age group Total Males Females Total 15.1 7.5 22.2 10-19 3.1 2.3 4.0 20-34 5.2 1.9 8.6 35-64 21.6 9.8 32.3 65 + 42.8 29.7 52.7

schooling. The higher percentage over age 35, and especially over 65 years, constitute the legacy of the past. It is particularly drastic as far as the female population is concerned. To bring out more clearly how much has been done in this field, the results of the first postwar census conducted in 1948. are presented below (Table 22).

TABLE 22. — AGE AND SEX DISTRIBUTION OF ILLITERATES IN YUGOSLAVIA IN 1948

% of illiterates Age group Total Males Females Total 25.4 15.4 34.4 10-19 14.0 9.5 18.7 20-34 16.3 7.1 24.1 35-64 34.6 21.1 46.5 65 + 55.7 43.1 65.3

There are pronounced regional differences in the level of literacy. Thus, whereas illiteracy has practically been eliminated in Slovenia, it continues to be a serious problem in the other regions. It is lowest in Croatia and Vojvodina and highest in Kosovo and Bosnia—Hercegovina (Table 23). These regional differentials are even more glaring when viewed by age. Thus the proportion of illiterates in ages 35-64 was 1.1% in Slovenia and 56.7% in Kosovo. In the 65 and over age group the corresponding percentages were 3.9% and 83.7%. The male population, as the data presented shows, is considerably more literate than the female, because of the inferior status of the female in the past. The 1971 figures show that every thirteenth male was illiterate at that time, and every fourth female. Amongst educational characteristics, educational status takes an outstanding place. According to the census, in 1971 there were almost 17 million persons over age 10, and of these over 11 million either had had no schooling or had not finished primary (eight—year) school, that is, had not gained even the basic compulsory schooling. This amounts to almost 67% of the population, and means that almost 7 of every 10 people

36 TABLE 23. — PERCENTAGE OF ILLITERATES IN YUGOSLAVIA, THE REPUBLICS AND PROVINCES, IN 1971

% Yugoslavia 15.1 Bosnia—Hercegovina 23.2 Montenegro 16.7 Croatia 9.0 Macedonia 18.1 Slovenia 1.2 Serbia 17.2 Proper . 17.6 Vojvodina 9.1 Kosovo 31.6

TABLE 24. — EDUCATIONAL STATUS OP THE YUGOSLAV POPULATION AGE 10 AND OVER, ACCORDING TO THE 1953, 1961 AND 1971 CENSUSES

1953 1961 1971 1953 1961 1971 in 000. in% Total 13381 14611 16 896 100.0 100.0 100.0 No school, or 1-3 primary grades 5632 4864 4091 42.0 33.3 24.2 4-7 grades of primary school 6161 7093 7146 46.1 48.5 42.3 Primary school 556 1069 2548 4.2 7.3 15.1 Schools for skilled and highly-skilled workers 531 878 1515 4.0 6.0 8.9 Secondary, vocational schools 191 312 727 1.4 2.1 4.3 Gymnasium 154 176 334 1.2 1.2 2.0 University and higher schools 8i 197 474 0.6 1.4 2.8 Unknown 75 24 62 0.5 0.2 .0.4 over age 10 either had not finished primary school or had no schooling whatsoever (Table 24). Progress has been great over the last two decades but the level necessary for the overall development of Yugoslavia, especially economic, and its specific manpower needs has not yet been attained. There are differences in educational level from one region to another. Thus, the

37 percentage with no schooling or oníy 1-3 grades of primary school ranges from 6.8% in Slovenia to 36.2% in Bosnia-Hercegavina and 39.8% in Kosovo. But, the pace of change has been the faster in the less developed regions. For example, in Slovenia in 1953, 16,5% of the population over age 10 had finished primary school or had a higher level of education (secondary and higher) and in 1971, 63,2. The respective percentages for Kosovo were 4.3% in 1953 and 23.1% in 1971. Although these changes are partly a function of the age structure of the population, it is nevertheless indisputable that they have taken place much faster in Kosovo, where the phase of faster attainment of educational qualifications only began in 1953. The percentage with higher education has grown more rapidly amongst the female than the male population, e.g. the number of females with secondary education in Yugoslavia swelled from 247,000 (3.5% of the population over age 10) in 1953, to 867,000 (10.0%) in 1971. The corresponding figures for males were 9.8% in 1953 and 21.8% in 1971. The pattern of growth in the number with higher and university training was similar (in 1953 only 29,000 females, and in 1971 around 130,000), etc.

Nationality Structure of the Population

Any examination of the ethnic structure of the Yugoslav population, must certainly give a central place to nationality. Mother tongue and religion can also be ranked alongside nationality here, although today religion does riot have the same significance by far as it had in Yugoslavia in the past. The ethnic groups of multi-national Yugoslavia have been subjected to influences from different centers (economic, cultural, religious, political and others), and to this day there are great differences between them in socio-economic development, as well as considerable disproportions in regard to basic demographic characteristics. In all four postwar population censuses, information on the nationality structure has been obtained exclusively through direct questions on nationality. Each respondent is completely free to declare his nationality subjectively, in line with his sentiments on the matter. This is a reflection of the national rights enjoyed by the peoples of Yugoslavia, including the right to free determination of nationality. Information was collected in all the postv/ar censuses on mother tongue, and in the 1953 census on religion as well. The nationality composition of ihe Yugoslav population that emerges from the 1971 census (Table 25) shows the major nations of the country to comprise 86.7% of the total population, the national minorities 10.6% and other nationalities 0.8%, while 1.9% of the total population did not declare any specific nationality. Demographic studies of the development of the population according to nationality have shown that the differences in demographic characteristics are unquestionably the outcome of long—term historical development. Existing differences are in greatest part the product of the effects of past socio-economic development, the level of economic development now attained in the region inhabited by the members of the given nationality, the cultural and educational level, etc. On many demographic variables (eg. mortality) there are pronounced trends towards a diminution of these

38 TABLE 25. — NATIONALITY STRUCTURE OF THE YUGOSLAV POPULATION, 1971

Number 0/ inDOO %

Total 20523 100 Nations of Yugoslavia Montenegrins 509 2.5 Croatians 4527 22.1 Macedonians 1195 5.8 Moslems (as a nationality) Slovenians 1678 8.2 Serbians 8143 39.7

National Minorities Albanians 1310 6.4 Bulgarians 59 0.3 Czechs 25 0.1 Italians 22 0.1 Hungarians 477 2.3 Rumanians 59 0.3 Ruthenians 25 0.1 Slovaks 84 0.4 Turks 129 0.6 Other Nations, Nationalities and Ethnic Groups Gypsies 78 0.4 Ukrainians 14 0.1 Waîlachians 22 0.1 Others 51 0.2 Undeclared Nationality Or. the basis of Art, 14 of the Constitution of SFRY 33 0.2 'Yugoslavs' . 273 Î.3 Regional identification 15 0.1 Unknown 47 0.3 differentials, although on some traits (eg. fertility) they remain sharp. The socio-econo- mic, educational and other structures of the populations are modifying in line with and according io the tendencies observed with the overall Yugoslav population, although the rate of these changes is greater in those previously less developed. All'in all, the equality of the different nationalities in Yugoslavia favors the attainment of general goals in the demographic development of all the nationalities. i) Citizens have the right nol to declare themselves at all. 2)-,Citizens are permitted to declare themselves 'Yugoslavs' oven though this is not considered a declaration of nationality or ethnic membership. These persons are treated as a separate group in the results. 3) Citizens replying in terms of regional membership (eg. as a Sumadinian. Dalmatian, Herccgovinian, etc.) instead of nationality. Historical circumstances have also in a sense determined the spatial distribution of the individual nations and nationalities. This distribution, in fact, influenced the location of the borders of the republics within Yugoslavia. The compactness of the population of each nationality in its given republic is undeniable. This is clearly evidenced by the findings of each of the four postwar censuses. Thus, according to the last, in 1971 Serbs made up 71.2% of the population in Serbia, Croats 79.4% of the population in Croatia, Slovenians 94.0% of the population in Slovenia, Macedonians 69.3% of the population in Macedonia, and Montenegrins 67.2% of the population in Montenegro, while 37.2% of the population in Bosnia—Hercegovina were Serbs, 20.6% Croats, and 39.6% Moslems (as a nationality). In Kosovo, 73.7% of the population were Albanians, 18.4% Serbs, 2.5% Montenegrins, and 2.1% Moslems. In Vojvodina, according to the last census, 55.8% were Serbs, 21.7% Hungarians, 3.7% Slovaks, 2.7% Rumanians, etc. Religious affiliation was investigated only during the 1953 population census. Respondents declared their religion according to strictly subjective criteria. According to the findings,. 12.6% of the population had no religion, 41.2% were Orthodox, 31.7% Catholic, 12.3% Moslem and 0.9% Protestant. The ethnic structure emerging from the data on nationality and on mother tongue in the main coincide. However, specific questions regarding mother tongue (defined as the language used in early childhood) have proven very valuable in clarifying ethnic structure, particularly with children of mixed marriages and respondents failing to declare a specific nationality (1.9% in the 1971 census), as well as with the members of nationalities and ethnic groups in which awareness of a distinctness is only just becoming.

Households and Families

All the censuses conducted on the territory of Yugoslavia since 1921 have collected information on households, with the household at the same time being treated as a separate statistical unit. The problem of the family, so to speak, was not investigated until the 1953 census, although data on families was derived from the information on households, so that until that date, the family appeared as a derived statistical unit. The household is defined on the basis of objective criteria such as common residence and pooled earnings and expenditures. Defined in this way, the household may be considered a single socio-economic category. The family is conceived of as a sociological—biological category, that is, as ¡i community based on legal bonds of marriage and blood relationship, or adoption, and residing within a household. • It is characteristic of the Yugoslav population that growth in households has outpaced growth in the population, as a result of a decrease in average household size (Table 26). In the period since the last war the size of the household has shrunk from one census to the next. Apart from purely demographic factors (fertility, mortality, natural increase, marriage and divorce rates) the reduction in average household size has been contributed to by population migrations, foremostly on a rural-urban scale, which have .

40 TABLE 26. — HOUSEHOLDS IN YUGOSLAVIA, 1921—1971

Census Number of Persons households per (000) household 1921 2 460 5.10 1931 2 848 5.14 1948 3 627 . 4;37 1953 3 963 4.29 1961 4 649 3.99 1971 5 375 3.82 been very strong during this period. Moreover, changes have also taken place in the rural population which, in addition to a general trend of change in the family composition of households, has also been a contributing factor. The distribution of households by size class in 1961 and 1971 (Table 27)*shows a rise in the relative proportion of 3 and 4-person households, and to some extent of 2—person households, along with a decline in frequency of the other size classes. TABLE 27. — PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OP HOUSEHOLDS BY SIZE CLASS

Persons per 1961 1971 household

Total 100.0 100.0 1 13.6 12.9 2 15.4 16.3 3 17.2 19.0 4 18.6 21.3 5 13.6 12:9 6 9.3 8.0 7 5.4 4.3 8 and over 7.0 5.3

Rural and urban differences in average household size are very pronounced, and are the product of the level of fertility and the marriage and divorce rates, as well as the family composition of the households. Thus, in 1971, average household size in urban settlements was 3.2, and in rural settlements 4.3. Similarly, interregional differences in average household size are appreciable (Table 28). In all regions, except for Kosovo, average household size diminished over the period observed. In the more developed regions (Slovenia, Croatia, Serbia Proper and Vojvodina), household size was low (from 3.2 to 3.6 persons), in Montenegro, Bosnia—Hercegovina and Macedonia, somewhat higher (4.3 to 4.7), and in Kosovo, very

41 TABLE 28. — AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD SIZE BY REPUBLIC AND PROVINCE. 1948 AND 1971

Serbia Bosnia Mont- —Herceg- ene- Croat- Mace- Slov- ovina gro ia donia enia Total SnaKosovo 1948 3.1 4.5 3.9 5.3 3.8 4.4 4.5 3.6 6.4 1971 4.4 4.3 3.4 4.7 3.3 3.8 3.6 3.2 6.6 high (6.6). In Kosovo the slight downturn in fertility did not have any effects because it was offset by a simultaneous downturn in infant mortality and, furthermore, changes taking place in family composition had but little effect. in the 1961 and 1971 censuses, households were classified as agricultural or non—agricultural on the basis of the source of the household income. The following three categories were obtained: households earning income a) solely from agriculture; b) from both agriculture and non—agricultural activities; and c) solely from non—agricultu- ral activities. TATJLE 29. — HOUSEHOLDS ACCORDING TO SOURCE OF INCOME, 1971

Total Number of households % of households by source of income by source of income Total house- Non- holds Agri- aprj. Agri- Non- cult- Mixed cult- Mixed agricult- ural CUlxU" ural ural ral SFRY 5 375 1373 754 3248 25.6 14.0 50.4 Bosnia— Hercegovina 849 234 128 487 27.6 . 15.0 57.4 Montenegro 122 29 15 78 23.5 12.4 64.1 Croatia 1 289 278 187 825 21.6 14.5 63.9 Macedonia 352 96 47 209 27.2 13.4 59.4 •Slovenica 516 53 70 392 10.3 13.7 76.0 Serbia 2 248 684 307 1257 30.5 13.6 55.9 Proper 1446 430 2110 806 29.7 14.6 55.7 Vojvodina 613 189 65 359 30.9 10.6 58.5 Kosovo 188 65 31 82 34.7 16.3 49.0

Comparisons show that over the decade from 1961 to 1971 there was a sizeable drop in the proportion of purely agricultural households in all regions, and a decline in 'mixed' households, while there was a considerable upsurge in the proportion of 'non—agrieultural' households (from 43.4 to 60.3%). The concept of the family is narrower than that of the household, and the

42 following data gives a picture of the family composition of households in 1953 and 1961 (Table 30). TABLE 30. — FAMILY COMPOSITION OF HOUSEHOLDS, 1953 AND 1961

Family composition 1953 1961

Total 100.0 100.0 One—person 12.2 14.0 Nuclear family 53.9 69.6 Extended family 28.2 25.7 Others 5.7 1.7

Households consisting of extended families decreased in frequency during this period, while those mads up of nuclear families increased. This process is understandable in this country because the heavy now from rural to urban settlements is breaking down the multi-family rural household. On the other hand, there is a mounting inclination amongst the young to found their own households to avoid likely generation conflicts. For these reasons, the incidence of aged households is growing from one day to the next, as is the need for the construction of homes for the care of the aged. . The category of 'nuclear families' is very numerous and especially interesting, not only in Yugoslavia, but in other countries as well (Table 31).

TABLE 31. — COMPOSITION OF NUCLEAR FAMILIES IN YUGOSLAVIA, 1953 AND 1961

1953 1961

Total 100.0 100.0 Married couples without children 22.1 22.9 Married couples with children 61.4 64.1 Mothers with children 14.0 11.1 Fathers with children 2.5 1.9

The incidence of complete families (married couples with or without children) rose from 1953 to 1961 in all regions, both absolutely and relatively, while the reverse is true of incomplete families. This is understandable because incomplete families were exceptionally frequent directly after the war, due either to direct war casualties, or because the disruption of conjugal life led to an increase in the number of divorces. At the same time, however, numerous other factors have been operative in the increase in this category during this period, such as: emancipation of the woman, reform of marital and family legislation in Yugoslavia, the growth of industry, urbanization, etc.

43 IV POPULATION DISTRIBUTION, INTERNAL MIGRATION AND THE AGRICULTURAL, NON-AGRICULTURAL, URBAN AND RURAL POPULATIONS

Population Distribution and Internal Migration

The density and regional distribution of the population of Yugoslavia has developed under the influence of multifarious natural factors and social, economic, demographic and political developments in the past. The presently more developed regions (Slovenia, Vojvodina, Croatia, Serbia Proper) were much more densely populated in 1880 than the other regions. This state of affairs continued up to 1921, and to some extent 1948 when the effect of demographic factors became stronger. Namely, as a consequence of fertility and mortality dynamics, natural increase became more regionally differentiated, while internal migration only partially mitigated the effects of natural increase on total population trends. Particularly outstanding in this respect is Kosovo, where the high natural increase, sustained an entire 90 years, and particularly over the last two and a half decades, has made this the most densely populated region in the country. Shifts in population density in Yugoslavia are presented in Table 32.

TABLE 32. — POPULATION DENSITY IN YUGOSLAVIA BY REGION, 1880—1971 Population per km

- 1880 1921 1948 1961 1971

SFRY 34.7 49.0 61.9 72.5 80.2 Bosnia-Hercegovina 22.6 37.0 50.1 64.1 73.2 Montenegro 15.0 22.5 27.3 32.2 38.4 Croatia 44.1 60.6 66.9 73.6 78.2 Macedonia 20.5 31.4 44.8 54.7 64.1 Slovenia. 58.2 63.6 71.4 78.6 85.2 Serbia 37.5 54.5 73.9 86.5 95.5 Serbia Proper 33.9 . 50.8 74.2 89.2 93.7 Vojvodina 55.2 71.5 74.3 86.3 90.7 Kosovo 22.0 40.3 67.3 88.5 114.3

44 Natural factors have had a great influence on population density in certain regions. Broadly speaking, the lowland areas are more densely settled. Themost sparselyjsettled are areas in the central highland belt of the country. Settlements there are generally small and scattered. Along the coast, density is lower than on the northern plains, but greater than in the central highlands. The influence of regional economic development on population density is also manifest throughout the period, although the very great significance of demographic factors must be stressed. Right up to the end of the fifth decade of this century only Serbia Proper and Vojvodina had positive net migration in relation to the other regions, but they were subsequently joined in this respect by Slovenia and Croatia. In the interval from 1921 to 1971, population density increased the most in Kosovo, followed by the other less developed regions with relatively high fertility and natural increase rates (Macedonia, Bosnia—Hercegovina and Montenegro) and Serbia Proper, which had a positive net migration throughout this span of time. In the remaining regions (Slovenia, Croatia and Vojvodina) density grew at a much lower rate. During this period there was a strong spatial redistribution and flow of the population from the south to the north, from the Dinaric karst to the Pannonian Plain. But, in spite of this, a relatively higher rise in density was recorded in the southeastern parts of the country, where agricultural density is higher and urbanization lower. In the south, then, there was demographic expansion powered by the high rate of natural increase, and in the north an increase in population density that may be ascribed in considerable degree to immigration. These processes are a function of the respective differences in natural factors and the level of socio-economic development in the various parts of the country (the given phase of demographic transition). Areas with a general population density of over 100 include northern Serbia Proper, southwestern Vojvodina. Kosovo, northwestern Macedonia, northeastern Bosnia, northwestern Croatia and central and eastern Slovenia. Sparsely settled regions (up to 25)are considerably frequent in Montenegro and liosnia-Hercegovina. They make up the greater part of the highland and karst region of Yugoslavia. Such areas are less common in Macedonia and Slovenia and virtually absent from Serbia, except in karstic eastern Serbia. As a whole then, an outstanding feature is the great differentiation of the territory of Yugoslavia and its constituent republics according to population density. This is an indicator sui generis, of the Yugoslav social, economic and demographic mosaic. Internal migration has had an even greater effect in recent times on the population dynamics of smaller and larger regions than in the past . After the formation of a unified state in 1918, spontaneous and organized internal migration over long and short distances resurged. After the Second World War and the People's Revolution of 1941-1945, internal migration became even more intensive. In organized migratory movements (agrarian colonization after the war) the population abandoned depressed farming-herding regions of the Dinaric karst and settled on the Pannonian Plain. Subsequently, parallel with the industrialization of the country and the development of

* An historical account of internal migration in the country is presented in the introductory chapter.

45 other non-agricultural economic activities, a transfer began to take place from agricultural to non—agricultural activities (deagrarianization) which very often also entailed spatial mobility as rural—to-urban migration (the rural exodus). Therefore, even though the spatial mobility of the population within the country itself had been appreciable between the wars, both absolutely and relatively it does not compare with the volume of migration during the war and in the period of postwar socialist construction. The tumultuous war years and the new social relations that sprang up from the social revolution accelerated the disintegration of the patriarchal structure of the population. Village traditions dissipated and the thirst for land abated while deagrarianization impulses led tö strong internal migration. By 1948 31% of the total population was domiciled away from their place of birth (allochthonous population). In 1953 this figure had risen to 35%, in 1961 to 37% and in 1971 it reached 40%. This gives a clear indication of the degree of internal spatial : mobility of the Yugoslav population, which was a function of the rapid and radical socio-economic transformation of the country. Amongst the individual republics, the highest relative proportion of internal migration is found in Slovenia (46%), Croatia (43%) and Serbia (42% allochthonous population), that is. in the more developed republics. The proportions in the other republics, which are at the same time less developed, are lower (Bosnia—Hercegovina 30%, Macedonia 38% and Montenegro 39%). Of the two autonomous provinces, component parts of the Republic of Serbia, more developed, agricultural-industrial Vojvodina has a high proportion of migrants (47%), while less developed Kosovo has only 31% (69%. then, live in their place of birth). The acceleration of internal migration and its positive correlation with general socio-economic development of the country is lawful and clear. Of the total number of the population not domiciled in their place of birth today only 16% migrated before 1941 and only 5% during the war (1941—1945), while 36% migrated betv/een 1946 and 1960, and as many as 42% during the last decade (1961-1971).* Characteristically, short-range migrations predominate, that is, migrations over small distances (36% have migrated from one settlement to another in the same district, 47% from one district to another in the same republic or province, and 15% from one republic or province to another, 2% are unknown.) Of the total number of migrants registered at the 1971 census (8,236,000), 4,584,000 resided in towns (55.7%) and 3,652,000 (44.3%) in other settlements. Rural—to—urban migration is the most significant type of urban immigration. However, inter—rural and inter—urban migrations have also been important (Table 33). Long-distance internal migration (inter-republican or inter-provincial) in the postwar period bears the following characteristics: - All the more developed regions (Slovenia, Croatia, Serbia Proper, Vojvodina) have a positive balance in respect to internal migration. This was only the case in Serbia Proper and Vojvodina until around 1956/57, but after this the trend appeared in Slovenia and Croatia as well. In Macedonia the balance of migration is at an equilibrium, * In interpreting the 1971 census data, account must be taken of the tact that the distribution of persons that have migrated is influenced to a great extent by mortality and re-migration. The greater the lapse of time since the census was taken, the greater is the likelihood of repeated migration, and that the total number has been affected by mortality. Nevertheless, detailed analyses show that spatial mobility has grown, parallel with economic and social development. 46 TABLE 33. — MIGRANT POPULATION IN YUGOSLAVIA BY TYPE OF PLACE OF ORIGIN AND DESTINATION, 1971 Domiciled in urban settlements other settlements inOOO's % in 000's Vo Total 4584 100 3652 100 Migrated from urban 1546 33.7 364 10.0 mixed 499 10.9 265 7.3 rural 2428 53.0 2963 81.1 From abroad 2428 1.4 32 0.9 Unknown 45 1.0 28 0.8 while in all the other, less developed regions throughout the postwar period there has been an excess of emigrants over immigrants from other parts of the country. . - Whereas migration from the developed to the less developed regions (above all, migration of highly-trained workers) was still strong up to 196Ü, over the succeeding decade this type of migration virtually disappeared. — In the past period, migration of labor from the less developed to the more developed (especially Slovenia) regions has been growing, though it is noteworthy that these migrants leave their families at home in their place ot origin. To give a clearer picture of inter—regional migration, average annual net migration is presented in Table 34 for the period 1953-1971. TABLE 34. — ANNUAL NET INTER-REPUBLICAN (INTER-PROVINCIAL) MIGRATION, 1953—1971 Annual average 1953-1961 1961-1971 No. No. Bosnia—Hercegoviaa -13220 -18328 Montenegro -1629 -1534 Croatia +2126 +6368 Macedonia + 2164 -162 Slovenia + 1765f +3266 Serbia Proper +440 +7328 Vojvodina +11730 +6815 Kosovo -3720 -3913 Under the conditions of insufficient development coupled with very rapid transformation of the country, daily and weekly commuting (of the labor force, students and pupils, etc.) is important. Migrants of this kind constituted as much as 36% of all employed in the country on 31st March 1961 and although there has been a downtrend over the last decade their incidence is still relatively high today. For this reason, then, this is a significant form of spatial (horizontal) and economic (vertical) mobility of the

47 population, and a bridge between the city and its surroundings. The heavy commuting of the 1950's was influenced by the following factors: — the fast but spatially and temporally uneven development and location of production in small and large territorial units; — the pressures exerted by the latent surplus labor released from the previously insular and over-populated village; - the drive of the young for social and economic restructuring (reinforced by the revolution); - the diminished importance of natural factors in determining the economic opportunities of individual parts of the country; — the inability of the society to absorb all deagrarianized workers and provide housing for them near their place of work; - the commuting worker's low skills and earnings both from his property and his job (forcing the need to double up occupationally in order to temporarily bolster his social and economic position). The decline in commuting since 1960 has been brought about by the following factors: — the introduction of thé social and economic reforms (with consequent reduction in the rate of employment of unskilled and semi-skilled workers, the majority of which are commuters); - liberalization of the labor market and departure to work in other countries; - a rise in family home-building in the suburban belts (construction, generally unlicensed, of family homes has made it possible for some of the commuters to move closer to their place of work); - retirement of a part of the generation of mixed peasant-workers (crossbreeds that usually stay on in the village as a source of supplementary income and goods).

Agricultural and Non-agricultural Population

Whereas before World War II Yugoslavia had an outstandingly agrarian structure with the agricultural population making up over 70% of the total, after the war, with accelerated development of industry and other non—agricultural activities, there was a marked tendency to decline in the agricultural population (Table 35).

TABLE 35. — AGRICULTURAL AND NON-AGRICULTURAL POPULATION IN YUGOSLAVIA, 1948—1971

Total Agricultural Non—agricultural in OOO's in OOO's % in OOO's % 1948 15842 10646 57.2 5196 32.8 1953 16991 10348 60.9 6643 39.1 1961 18549 9198 49.6 9351 50.1 1971 20524 7 840 38.2 12683 61.8

48 From 1948-1953 not only did the relative proportion of the agricultural population decrease, but its absolute number as well, and from then on the annual transfer of the agricultural population to non-agricultural activities surpassed its natural increase. While estimated average annual transfer in the period 1948-1953 was around 203,000, and over 1953-1961 around 229,000, in the period 1961-1971 it ranged around 217,000. When compared with urban population trends (in 1971 the urban population accounted for slightly over 38%), the process of deagrarianization of the population has been considerably faster than the process of urbanization. That is, a sizeable portion of the population dwelling in mixed and rural settlements is non-agricultural. Occupational mobility is often but not always linked to spatial (geographical) mobility. According to the findings of an agricultural census, in 1969 there were 1,420,000 economically active persons living on farms but holding jobs outside, mainly in non-agricultural fields. Such a significant number of persons living on farms and holding outside jobs, which together with their dependents are categorized as non-agricultural, shows that there are considerable mixed groups earning part of their income from non-agricultural employment and part from agricultural work, for they also do a fair amount of farm work on their own properties. On the other hand, some agricultural workers themselves gain part of their income from non-agricultural work, for example through seasonal (e.g. construction) and other employment. During the immediate postwar period, the transfer of agricultural population to the non-agricultural sector was largely direct, but today this proceeds predominantly via training. The high level of this transfer created additional difficulties, particularly just after the economic reform (1964) when the policy of intensive employment was adopted, mainly in providing employment for the contingents just entering their economically active period of life. This was compounded by the fact that there was strong demographic pressure on employment at the same time. In this period departures to take up temporary employment abroad also became significant, and unemployment was higher. The shifts in the relative proportion of the agricultural population, and the level attained in 1971, differed regionally. The most developed region (Slovenia) had the lowest percentage of agricultural population (20.4%), and Kosovo, as the least developed, the highest percentage (51-5%) in 1971 (Table 36).

TABLE 36 - PROPORTION OF AGRICULTURAL POPULATION (Percentage)

Serbia Bosnia Mont- n , w c, Croat— Mace— Slov—

1948 71.8 71.6 62.4 70.6 44.1 72.3 72.4 68.Í 80.9 1971 40.0 35.0 32.4 32.9 20.4 44.0 44.1 39.0 41.3

The decrease in relative proportion of agricultural population has been very fast in all regions (from 26 to over 35 percentage points). But it must be noted that the rank ordering of regions according to development does not coincide completely with the

49 ranking according to the relative size of the agricultural population. Certain less developed regions have a lower percentage of agricultural population than some of the more developed. This inconsistency is partly due to the age distribution of the population, or the dependency coefficients (the number of dependents per economically active person in the agricultural and non-agricultural category), and partly to the fact that Yugoslavia's richest agricultural land lies in Vojvodina, Serbia Proper and in part of Croatia (Slavonia). Settlements, Rural and Urban Population

The population of Yugoslavia dwells in 27,568 settlements with an average of 744 inhabitants per settlement (Table 37). Different parts of the country differ widely in the average size, type and location of settlements. Generally, a redistribution of the population is underway, with a tendency for the population to concentrate in the bigger settlements. Thus, according to the 1948 population census, 48,1% of the population lived in settlements with over 1,200 inhabitants, and in 1971,60.2%. TABLE 37. — NUMBER OF SETTLEMENTS AND POPULATION DISTRIBUTION BY SETTLEMENT SIZE

Bosnia Mont-Cro-Mace-Slov- Serbia SFRY Her- enegro atia donia enia „,.„ Voi- ^ r-ponvina Total Proper voj. Kosovo cegovina c vodina a) Number of settlements k 1971 27568 5872 1259 6666 1695 6001 6075 4189 451 1435

Av. inhabitants. per settlement 744 638 421 664 972 288 13901253 4330 867 b) Population distribution by settlement size class (%)

up to 299 pop. 96 117 23.8 11,8 6.8 30.2 2.9 3.3 0.2 5.5

300-599 12.6 16.5 18.4 14.8 11.4 16.7 8.8 10.1 0.8 16.1 600-1199 17.6 22.4 17.4 16.3 16.8 10.6 17.7 21.0 3.2 26.9 1200-4999 29.9 25.91 11.3 18.8 18.3 13.0 27.4 25.7 32.6 26.3 5000-14999 9.4 7.4 7.4 13.4 6.5 4.7 7.5 12.8 9.4 3.6 15000 and over 27.9 16:1 15.7 31.7 42.0 22.0 30.4 30.5 35.6 21.6

On average, the largest rural settlements lie on the plains (Vojvodina, Pannonian parts of Serbia Proper and Croatia), and along the Adriatic coast. The smallest are located in the central highlands of the country (the mountain area of Croatia, Bosnia,. Hercegovina and Montenegro). In appearance they are orthogonal in Vojvodina, shoe-string in the peri-Pannonian zone,-scattered and irregular in the central highlands and compacted and meandering on the coast.

50 Yugoslavia as a whole is characterized by the considerable vestiges of rurality. Accordingly, urbanization is low although great changes have been wrought since the war, particularly in the past fifteen years. A pre-eminently primary producing country with a traditional and poly-cultura! heritage before the Second World War, Yugoslavia has since then gone through great and . rapid changes. Nevertheless, despite the appreciable attainments in industrialization and the development of the tertiary sector, in 1971 61% of the population still lived in rural and mixed settlements (Table 38).

TABLE 38. — PERCENTAGE OF URBAN POPULATION*

Serbia Bosnia Mont- Croat- Mace— Slov- SFEYHerce en- ia donia enia Total Proper Voj: Kosovo govina egro vodina 1953 21.7 15.0 14.2 24.3 26.1 22.0 22.5 21.2 29.5 14.6 1961 28.3 19.5 21.6 30.3 24.9 29.0 29.8 28.6 38.3 19.5 .197138.6 21.9 34.2 41.0 48.0 48.1 37.7 40.6 40.8 26.9

The percentage of urban population rose from 21.7. to 38.6% in the period 1953-1971. The process was very rapid even though the general level of urbanization is still rather low. Outstanding in Yugoslavia is the fact that a sizeable portion of the population lives in mixed settlements. These are settlements that are losing their rural features and structure, but which have not yet grown into urban centers in terms of population size and economic activities. The percentage of the population dwelling in mixed settlements in 1953 (statistics are available only for 1953 and 1961) was small (1.6% for the country as a whole) but had jumped by 1961 (around 11%). Regionally, in 1961 the percentage of the population living in mixed settlements was low in Kosovo (4.1%) and in Serbia Proper (5.7%), and high in Slovenia (21.0%), while in the other regions it ranged from 12-14%.

The classification into urban, rural and mixed settlements is based on analytic criteria, namely, the number of inhabitants and the percentaec ot" non-agricultural population in the total population of the settlement. According to this criteria, tiic following arc reierrcd to as urban: a) settlements with 2000-3000 inhabitants, at least 90% non-agricultural; b) settlements with 3000-10,000 inhabitants, at least 70% non-agricultural; c) settlements with 10,000-15,000 inhabitants, at least 40% non-agricultural; d) settlements with 15,000 inhabitants and more and at least 30% non—agricultural. The following are classified as mixed settlements a) settlements with 300-1000 inhabitants and at least 70% non-agricultural; b) settlements with 1000-2000 inhabitants, and at least 60% non-agricultural; c) settlements with 2000-3000 inhabitants, and from 50-90% or more non-agricultural; d) settlements with 3000-10,000 inhabitants, 40 to 70% non-agricultural; e) settlements with 10,000-15,000 inhabitants, 30 to 40% non-agricultural; f) settlements with 15,000 and more inhabitants, with less than 30% non-agricultural population.

51 Further regional comparisons show that urbanization is lowest in Bosnia- -Hercegovina, Montenegro and in Kosovo, and strongest in Vojvodina, Serbia Proper. Croatia and Slovenia, Macedonia is rather idiosyncratic in that it has a relatively high proportion of the population in urban type settlements that are partly agrarian. All in all there is a very clearly pronounced difference in the urbanization of the population and settlements in the northwestern regions of the country on the one hand, and the southeastern regions on the other. The extremes in this respect are Kosovo, which is still the most rural, most agrarian and most tradition-bound, and Slovenia which is the most urbanized in regard to urban, mixed and rural settlements. Slovenia does not on average have bigger urban and mixed settlements than other parts of Yugoslavia but rural urbanization there has reached a very high level. Throughout the period 1953-1971 there was strong spatial redistribution of the population. The rural exodus was exceptionally heavy and urbanization swift under the additional- effects of return streams of workers from abroad that are largely deagrarianized and opt for urban and mixed settlements. This changed not only the residential structure of the population, but its economic structure as well. In view of the data presented above and certain estimates, it must be mentioned that the greatest shifts were recorded in Slovenia, the coastal area of Croatia, around big towns and cities on the Pannonian Plain and in the industrial-mining heartlands of Bosnia, eastern Serbia and central Macedonia. The village, in this way, and through the otherwise diminishing natural increase of the population over recent years, is becoming emptier and demographically older. The situation is quite different in this regard in the central and southeastern parts of Yugoslavia (eastern Bosnia, Kosovo, Macedonia) where the rates of natural increase are very high. Of the 27.568 settlements in Yugoslavia, 127 are cities with more than 10.000 population. There are few big cities because by European standards and considering the level of urbanization, population density is low. Only 21 cities have more than 50,000 population (1971), 9 more than 100,000 and only 2 over 500,000 population. Nevertheless, metropolitanization has been relatively fast where the concentration of population in the capital city of the Federation and of Serbia is concerned (Belgrade, 770,000 inhabitants in 1971). However, it is checked by the polycentric urban network and the growth of the capital cities of the several republics and provinces (Zagreb, Ljubljana, Sarajevo, Skopje, Titograd, Novi Sad and Pristina). Polycentrism is also strengthening leading regional industrial and port-shipping centers (Rijeka, Split and Osijek in Croatia, Maribor in Slovenia, Nis and Kragujevac in Serbia, Banja Luka, Zenica and Mostar in Bosnia-Hercegovina. etc.). In 1948 the total population of the capital cities of the republics and provinces was 1,065,000, or 6.7% of the total population of the country. In 1953 this figure had risen to 1,247,000, or 7.3%; in 1961 to around 1,629,000 or 8.8%, and in 1971 to 2,382,000 or 11.0% of the Yugoslav population. Obviously the trend towards concentration of the population in these centers has been growing in recent years. In comparison with the increase in the total population of the country, the population in these capital cities virtually doubled over the period 1948-1971 (growth index for the total population, 1948-1971 was 129, and for the capital cities 224). Titograd, otherwise the smallest of the republican centers, had the highest growth index (550). while the second-largest center, Zagreb (population 556,000 in 1971) had the lowest (180). 52 The index of growth of the population in the capital cities and in the country as a whole over the period 1921—1971 likewise show an increasing rate of growth of the population of the capital cities from the first to the last intercensal interval (Table 39).

TABLE 39. - POPULATION GROWTH INDICES OF THE CAPITAL CITIES AND TOR YUGOSLAVIA AS A WHOLE 1921 1971 (1921=100)

1921 1931 1948 1953 1961 1971

Yugoslavia 100.0 115.6 126.0 135.1 147.4 162.5 Capital cities 100.0 163.0 240.5 281.7 368.3 538.5

Belgrade, the capital city of Yugoslavia and of the Republic of Serbia increased its population from 112,000 (1921) to 770,000 (1971; index 1921 = 100, 1971 =689). In the same span of time the population of Yugoslavia grew by only 63%. The process of cmetropolitanization' which began after the First World War, was continued in socialist Yugoslavia. The greatest expansion, both absolutely and relatively was recorded in the last intercensal interval, 1961-1971 (Table 40).

TABLE 40. - POPULATION GROWTH INDICES FOR BELGRADE AND THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA, 1923-1971 (1921=100)

1921 1931 1948 1953 1961 1971

Serbia 100.0 118,1 134.9 144.2 148.0 173.8 Belgrade 100.0 213.7 327.3 391.7 523.8 689.1

Zagreb, as the capital of the Republic of Croatia, is also its biggest urban agglomeration (and second biggest in the country). Population growth in Zagreb is a function of its very favorable geographical position and its role as a republican center. From a city of 109,000 inhabitants in 1921 it has grown into a big agglomeration of 566,000 (1971; index 1921 = 100, 1971 = 521). In half a century, then, its population has multiplied more than five times over, while the population of Croatia has grown by only 29%. TABLE 41. — POPULATION GROWTH INDICES FOR ZAGREB AND THE REPUBLIC OF CROATIA, 1921—1971 (1971 = 100)

1921 1931 1948 1953 1961 1971

Croatia 100.0 110.4 110.1 114.6 121.0 128.5 Zagreb 100.0 170.8 289.6 322.8 396.4 520.8

53 These differences may be ascribed to Zagreb's exceptionally strong dynamics, and its gravitational pull which far surpasses the borders of its republic (the strongest industrial center in the country). Ljubljana is the capital of the most developed and most urbanized republic (Slovenia). However, its population growth dynamics lags far behind Belgrade's and Zagreb's. Most probably this is because Slovenia has a more even population distribution, a high level of urbanization of rural and mixed settlements, a small area and a more uniform urban network than any other republic in the country. As a result, the process has unfolded more slowly, smoothly and painlessly, particularly after the Second World War. Ljubljana-has grown from a city of 53,000 inhabitants (1921) to one of 213,000 (1971; index 1921 = 100, 1971 =400). TABLE 42. — POPULATION GROWTH INDICES FOR LJUBLJANA AND THE REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIA, 1921—1971 (1921 = 100)

1921 1931 1948 1953 1961 1971

Slovenia 100.0 107Í4 111.7 116.7 123.2 133.5 Ljubljana 100.0 112.1 183.6 211.5 251.8 399.6

Sarajevo, the capital of the Republic of Bosnia- Herzegovina has undergone relatively fast population growth only since the Second World War. Prior to that conditions were not favorable for rapid urbanization. Only after the war were its central functions consolidated (earlier it had shared the functions of regional center with Mostar, Tuzla and Banja Luka to a greater extent than at present). Its growth index for the period 1921-1971 is the lowest of all the capitals. In 1921 Sarajevo had a population of only 66,000, and in 1971 244,000, with an appreciably altered appearance and structure (index 1921 = 100, 1971 = 367.9).

TABLE 43. — POPULATION GROWTH INDICES FOR SARAJEVO AND THE REPUBLIC OF BOSNIA — HERCEGOVINA, 1921—1971 (1921 = 100)

1921 1931 1948 1953 1961 1971 Bosnia- Hercegovina 100.0 122.5 135.8 150.2 173.0 196.4 Sarajevo 100.0 117.9 148.6 165.2 215.8 367.9

Skopje, the capital city of the Republic of Macedonia, has the highest growth .index of all the republican and provincial centers over the period 1921-1971 (and the same goes for the Republic as a whole). From a city of 41,000 in 1921 it has evolved, especially after the disastrous earthquake of 1963, into a modern city of 312.000 (1971 : index 1921 = 100, 1971 =767:2).

54 TABLE 44. — POPULATION GROWTH INDICES FOR SKOPJE AND THE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA, 1921—1971 (1921=100)

192Í 1931 1948 1953 1961 1971

Macedonia 100.0 117.2 142.8 160.9 173.1 202.0 Skopje 100.0 168.0 215.5 293.0 407.0 767.2

This rate of growth indicates a more highly accentuated urban and migratory monocentrism in this than in the other republics. Titograd is the capital of the Republic of Montenegro. From a town of 8,000 in 1921 it has developed into a city of 55,000 in 1971 (index 1921 = 100, 1971 = 669.8). Despite the fact that it performs the functions of republican center, population-wise it cannot grow significantly because its gravitational belt is narrow and sparsely settled and Apart from this, it shares economic functions with Niksic and Cetinje. It must also be mentioned that Montenegro is the most sparsely populated republic in Yugoslavia, mentioned that Montenegro is the most sparsely populated republic in Yugoslavia. Novi Sad is the capital of the Province of Vojvodina, and its population has risen from 39,000 in 1921 to 152,000 in 1971 (index 388.5). Vojvodina is agriculturally developed and has a uniform urban network. Pristina, is the capital of the Province of Kosovo and its population has grown from 14,000 to 70,000 over 1921-1971 (index 488.2). In Kosovo, the percentage of urban population is still relatively low, which also holds for the level of urbanization.

55 V. LABOR FORCE (ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE POPULATION)

From the economic aspect, the population may be differentiated into producers — the labor force (economically active population) and consumers (the whole population). The size of the labor force in Yugoslavia and its dynamics over the last few decades ha;, been determined in great measure by demographic factors — shifts in the age and sc.\ composition of the total population, economic (economic development) and other factors (educational coverage of the young, female employment, pension schemes, etc.). Since the action of these demographic, economic and other factors has differed widely in the different parts of the country, regional differentials in the relative size of the labor force have been very pronounced.

Working—age Contingent of the Population

The working-age contingent, as the demographic framework within which the labor force is formed, made up 62.6% of the total population of Yugoslavia in 1971. Regional differences were very sharp and were conditioned by variations in age composition of the populations (Table 45).

TABLE 45. — SHARE OF THE WORKING—AGE CONTINGENT IN THE TOTAL POPULATION (Percentage;

1953 1961 1971

Yugoslavia 61.7 60.6 62.6 Bosnia-Hercegovina 58.3 56.5 58.9 Montenegro 55.5 54.7 58.1 Croatia 63.7 62.8 64.2 Macedonia 55.9 56.1 60.0 ¡Slovenia 61.2 62.2 63.1 Serbia 63.5 62.0 64.1 Serbia Proper 64.8 63.5 66.5 Vojvodina 65.4 63.4 66.1 Kosovo 52.7 51.7 50.8

•" The working—age contingent includes all males aged 15-64, and all females aged 15-59

56 The less developed regions (Kosovo. Bosnia—Hercegovina and Macedonia) have relatively smaller working-age contingents than the more developed (Slovenia, Croatia. Vojvodina, Serbia Proper). The pattern of changes in the relative size of the working-age contingent has paralleled the fertility pattern. In addition, the two wars had a heavy impact on these changes. The last census (1971) shows absolutely and relatively faster growth in the working-age contingent due to the influx of those born during the compensatory period when fertility rates were high.Thus, for Yugoslavia as a whole, the working—age contingent increased annually by around 93.000 in the period 1953—1961, and by around 161.000 in the period 196! 1971. The sex composition of the working-age population has shown the same trends as the total population, which means that there has been a tendency towards equilibrium, though the fact that this population category covers males aged from 15 to 64 years and females from 15 to 59 years must be kept in mind. Namely up to age 35 there is an excess of males, a balance of the sexes around this age, followed by an excess of females that rises with increasing age, as was shown in the age and sex structure of the total population of Yugoslavia. The age composition of the working-age contingent has been characterized by a decline in the relative proportion of the younger age groups. Whereas, for example, in 1961 15-34 year olds accounted for 57.1% of the total Yugoslav working-age contingent, in 1971 they accounted for around 54.9%, etc. The more developed regions (Slovenia, Croatia. Vojvodina and Serbia Proper) have a generally older working-age contingent and the less developed (Bosnia—Hercegovina, Macedonia. Montenegro and Kosovo) a younger. Regionally, the percentage of 15-34 year olds in the total working-age contingent ranged from 47% (Vojvodina) to 6 i% (Kosovo) in 1971.

Total Population by Economic Activity Category

The activity rate (percentage of active population in the total population) in Yugoslavia shows a tendency to gradual decrease, while the percentage of income—reci- pients (old age, invalid and family pensions, welfare aid) has been rising CT;ible 46). In the period examined, the percentage of dependents has remained level. The gradual downtrend in activity rate has been brought about by the faster decline in the percentage of youth in the working population, due to rising educational requirements, and by the decline in the activity rate amongst the older population with

TABLE 46. - STRUCTURE OF THE POPULATION BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, 1953-1971 Percentage Total population Active income- dependents (000's) population recipients

1953 16991 46.3 3.2 50.5 1961 18549 45.0 3.7 51.3 1971 20523 43.3 6.0 50.1

57 the increasing compass of pension insurance. These changes are closely correlated to the economic structure of the population, namely the rapid decrease in the share of the agricultural population in the total population. Schooling of the young is considerably greater amongst the non—agricultural population, but it must be noted that in recent years the proportion of the agricultural youth attending secondary, vocational and higher schools has been rising quickly. On the other hand, the activity rate of the female population, both agricultural and non—agricultural, aged 25—49 years, has also increased; Amongst the aged population, however, there is a decline in activity rate, particularly in relation to economic sector, agricultural-non-agricultural. Namely, aged persons previously engaged in non—agricultural economic activity move to the income—recipients group in accordance with pension provisions, while those in the agricultural population continue to be designated as economically active. All these factors have acted to produce a decline in the activity rate of the male population in Yugoslavia, from 63.0% in 1953 to 56.4% in 1971, while the activity rate of the female population has stayed at the same level (around 31%). However, the activity rate of females aged 25—34 has risen from 45.0 to 53.6% and of females aged 35-49 from 34.9 to 46.2%. The proportion and number of income—recipients grew rapidly in the period observed, particularly from 1961 to 1971. Namely, in the postwar period there was a high rate of employment in practically all age categories. Since all employed persons (and many persons engaged in other non-agricultural occupations, irrespective of employment status) have pension insurance, a considerable number have become eligible for old age pensions. Moreover, the invalidity rate has been relatively high, and has influenced the growth in the number of invalid pensioners, etc. Growth in the labor force and the activity rate has differed widely in the various republics and provinces (Table 47). For the country as a whole, over the period 1953—1971, average annual increase in the labor force amounted to around 58,000, and of the total population around 196,000. The 7 %„ growth rate of the labor force is considerably below the 10'!lw rate of the total population. With the exception of only Slovenia, in all regions the labor force has grown more slowly than the total population. The activity rate in the developed regions ranged from 42.7 (Vojvodina), 45.5 (Croatia), 48.4 (Slovenia) to 51.5% (Serbia Proper) in 1971. All of these regions show advanced processes of demographic ageing, but in Slovenia and Serbia Proper the activity rates are raised by the very high level of female employment: in both the agricultural and non—agricultural sector in Slovenia, and in the agricultural in Serbia Proper. Activity rates in the less developed regions are lower: from 32.7 to 38.3% in Montenegro, Bosnia—Hercegovina and Macedonia, and in Kosovo 26.0%. These low rates are due in large measure to the age structure, especially of the population in Kosovo where around 527' are under 20 years of age (1971). In addition, female activity rates are very low in Montenegro and Kosovo. The trends of change in activity rates in the republics and provinces have in the main been similar to those for the country as a whole, i.e. the proportion of the labor force in the population has dropped (except in Slovenia). Whereas everywhere the male activity rate has declined, the female activity rate has risen in Slovenia, Croatia and Serbia Proper, and flattened out or declined slightly in the other regions.

58 TABLE 47. — LABOR FORCE (ACTIVE POPULATION) AND ACTIVITY RATES BY SEX IN YUGOSLAVIA AND REGIONALLY*

1953 1971 Total Male Female Total Male Female a) Active population in ooo's SFRY 7849 5169 2680 8890 5686 3204 Bosnia-Herce- govina 1210 816 394 1374 940 434 Montenegro 153 109 44 173 119 54. Croatia 1870 1212 658 2016 1239 Ill Macedonia 532 384 148 630 440 190 Slovenia 704 429 275 837 473 364 Serbia 3381 2218 1163 3859 2474 1385 Serbia Proper 2334 1452 882 2703 1635 3068 Vojvodina 778 541 237 833 567 266 Kosovo 268 225 43 323 272 51

b) Activity rate SFRY 46.3 63.0 30.7 43.3 56.4 30.7 Bosnia- Hercegovina 42.5 58.9 26.9 36.7 51.3 22.7 Montenegro 35.4 53.8 20.3 32.7 4S.1 19.9 Croatia 47.7 65.4 31.8 45.5 57.'9 34.0 Macedonia 40.8 58.3 22.9 33.3 52.7 23.4 Slovenia 48.0 61.9 35.5 48.4 56.6 40.8 Serbia 48.4 65.0 32.6 45.7 59.3 32.'4 Serbia Propei 52.4 66.7 38.6 51.5 63.2 40.1 Vojvodina 45.4 65.7 26.7 42.7 59.7 26.5 Kosovo 33.2 54.6 10.9 26.0 42.7 8.4

* In 1971,7.0% of the Yugoslav labor force was working temporarily abroad. Excluding these would considerably lower the activity rates, namely to: 40% for Yugoslavia, 40.0 -49.0% in the more developed regions, and 24.0 — 35.0% in the less developed regions.

Activity Rates by Age

The action of various factors (education of the young, pension insurance for the non—agricultural employed, female employment, etc.) on the rate of activity may be appreciated by an examination of age—specific activity rates in the tota], agricultural and non-agricultural populations (Tables 48 and 49).

59 TABLE 48. — AGE—SPECIFIC MALE AND FEMALE ACTIVITY RATES YUGOSLAVIA, 1953, 1961 AND 1971

Age Male Female

group 1953 1961 1971 1953 1961 1971

Total 63.0 59.6 56.4 30.7 31.1 30.9 10-14 20.0 7.7 2.9 20.3 11.7 4.9 15-24 87.6 79.0 60.4 63.0 60.0 46.3 25-34 -96.8 96.9 96.5 45.0 50.5 53.6 35-49 97.7 96.7 94.1 34.9 42.7 46.2 50-64 87.5 86.3 72.9 23.0 28.1 28.5 65 and over 60.3 56.3 50.9 11.8 14.3 15.5

TABLE 49. — AGE AND SEX—SPECIFIC ACTIVITY RATE OF THF, AGRICULTURAL AND NON—AGRICULTURAL POPULATION, YUGOSLAVIA, 1971

Age Agricultural Non-agricultural group Male Female Male Female

Total 65.5 42.9 51.1 22.6 10-14 7.4 12.4 0.3 0.3 15-24 70.5 64.4 54.8 35.5 25-34 97.6 63.2 96.1 48.7 35-49 99.2 60.0 96.6 36.6 50-64 98.4 46.9 49.6 10.8 65 and over 88.2 32.8 6.8 1.2

The percentage of economically active in the youngest age group (10—14) is insignificant today. Similarly, there has been a great drop in the activity rate of the age 15—24 group of both sexes during the period observed because of the increasing percentage of youth extending schooling, particularly those under age 20, though the same holds to a considerable extent for the age 20—24 group in view of the rise in the number of students at universities and higher, schools. In the 25—49 year^ group there have been only slight changes in the male population rate, while the female rate has been rising. The activity rate of males over 50 has declined as a result of the increase in the proportion of the non—agricultural population in this age group as well, while the low rate of females of this age shows a slight upturn influenced by the rise in females active in the agricultural sector. The activity rate is considerably higher in the agricultural than the non—agricultu- ral population. According to the 1971 census in the age 10-14 group it was 7.4% for

60 males and 12.4% for females, and in the age 15-24 groups the rates for both sexes were much higher than in the non—agricultural population. In both populations the male activity rates in the 25—49 year group were high, though non—agricultural males aged 35-49 had a slightly lower rate than the agricultural due to the effects of invalidity. Namely, the agricultural population is not covered by the invalid pension scheme. A high rate of activity is sustained in the oldest age group of the agricultural population. Amongst females, too, the activity rate is considerably higher in the agricultural population. The effects of the pension system are marked on the activity rate of age 50-64 non-agricultural females. Females are eligible for old age pensions five years earlier than males.

Sex and Age Structure of the Labor Force

In the postwar period there has been a trend to a gradual increase in the proportion of females in the overall Yugoslav labor force. This trend is evident in most of the republics and provinces as well (Table 50). TABLE 50. — PERCENTAGE OF FEMALES IN THE TOTAL LABOR FORCE

1953 1971 Yugoslavia 34.1 36.0 Bosnia-Hercegovina 32.5 31.3 Montenegro 29.0 31.3 Croatia 35.3 38.4 Macedonia 27.7 31.3 Slovenia 39.0 43.3 Serbia 34.4 35.8 Serbia Proper 37.8 39.4 Vojvodina 30.5 31.8 Kosovo 16.0 16.3

The more developed regions (with the exception of Vojvodina) have a higher proportion of females in the labor force (38—43%) than the less developed, together with Vojvodina (31-32%), while in Kosovo it is only around 16%. due to the high fertility (females tend the family and household) and traditional attitudes. towards female employment (amongst the Moslem population). In Kosovo, namely, even females in agricultural households declare themselves at census as housewives (dependents) even though they perform some agricultural work, although to a lesser extent than in other regions. Like the total population, the age structure of the labor force has changed greatly over the last few decades (Table 51). With the growing range of children covered by compulsory education, the relative weight of the youngest age group in the labor force has dropped rapidly. Similarly, the increasing number of the young attending secondary and higher schools has also brought

61 TABLE 51. — AGE STRUCTURE OF THE LABOR FORCE, YUGOSLAVIA, 1953, 1961 AND 1971 (Percentage)

Age group 1953 1961 1971

100.0 100.0 p 100.0 10-14 4.9 2.3 ' 0.8 15-19 16.5 10.2 8.9 20-24 16.9 14.5 13.6 25-34 21.9 28.3 23.8 35-^9 23.3 23.5 33.6 50—64 males and 50-59 females 12.4 15.9 12.2 65 + males and 60 +females 4.9 5.3 6.8

a decrease in the relative weight of the 15—19 and 20-24 year groups. The lower percentage of 25—34 year olds in 1971 was conditioned by the low birth rate during the Second World War. The percentage of the labor force aged 35-49 has grown strongly, while the decline in ages 50—64 (males) and 50—59 (females) is attributable in part to low fertility during the First World War and in part to the rise in the proportion of non-agricultural population in this age group as well (eligibility for old age and invalid pensions). All in all, there has been a shift in the age structure of the labor force towards a higher average age. The ageing of the labor force is much more pronounced in regions in which demographic ageing processes are advanced (Vojvodina, Croatia, Slovenia. ' Serbia Proper) and in the agricultural population because of the high transfer of predominantly younger age groups to non-agricultural employment.

Labor Force by Economic Sector

Of the total labor force in the country in 1953, 70.9% were engaged in the primary sector, 16.3% in the secondary and 12.8% in the tertiary. After 1953 this distribution began to change. By 1971 the relative weight of the primary sector had dropped to 48.7% and conversely, the relative weights of the secondary and tertiary sectors had risen to 29.5 and 21.8% respectively (Table 52). Similar changes in the structure of the labor force took place in all regions over the period 1953-1971, due to the rapid growth of industry and other non—agricultural activities. The rise in the secondary sector has been greater than the rise in the tertiary. Although relative growth in the tertiary labor force is a function of the productivity and the proportional level of the work force in the secondary sector - which is still relatively low in Yugoslavia — nonetheless the present level of the labor force in the .tertiary sector may be considered low.

62 TABLE 52. — LABOR FORCE BY ECONOMIC SECTOR (Percentage)

1953 1961 1971 Prim- Secon- Terti- Prima- Secon- Terti- Prima- Secon- Terti- ary dary ary ry dary ary ry dary ary

Yugoslavia 70.9 16.1 13.0 59.7 23.0 17.3 48.7 28.7 21.6 Bosnia-Her- cegovina 73.0 15.9 11.1 63.8 21.3 14.9 52.6 28.2 19.2 Montenegro 70.6 14.4 15.0 58.0 21.5 20.5 46.5 26.2 27.4 Croatia 67.2 18.2 14.6 53.8 26.0 20.1 42.4 31.7 25.9 Macedonia 72.4 14.9 12.7 62.4 20.9 16.7 49.9 29.0 21.1 Slovenia 53.6 . 28.7 17.7 39.5 37.9 22.6 27.2 46.0 26.7 Serbia 75.6 12.8 11.6 65.2 19.3 15.5 55.1 25.6- 19.3 Serbia Proper.76.6 12.2 11.2 66.2 18.4 15.4 56;.9 24.5 18.6 Vojvodina 71.4 14.9 13.7 58.6 23.8 17.5 48.0 30.1 21.9 Kosovo 78.6 11.7 9.7 74.5 15.0 10.5 58.8 23.9 17.3

* The primary sector includes agriculture and forestry; the secondary: manufacturing, trades and crafts, mining and construction; the tertiary: transport and communications, commerce, hotels and catering, services, housing-sanitary services and non-economic activities. The following categories have been excluded from the total labor force: unemployed and unknown, and in 1971, workers temporarily employed abroad.

Status Composition of the Labor Force

Over the last twenty years the status composition of the Yugoslav labor force has altered greatly. The number of employees has shown a constant rise and the number of own-account workers, unpaid family workers and employers a constant decline. This is the product of economic development and the growth of socialist relations. Employees accounted for 31.67o of the total labor force in 1953, and 49.5% in 1971. The percentage of own-account workers has dropped steadily, from 32.0% in 1953 to 22.3% in 1971. The same has happened with unpaid family workers (Table 53). The classification 'temporarily employed abroad' appears for the first time in i 971. Regional differences are still strong in respect to the status composition of the labor force. The percentage of employees ranges over an interval from 39.6% (Kosovo) to 69.6% (Slovenia). These differentials are in great degree a function of the share of the non—agricultural work force in the total, since more than 90% of the agricultural labor force are own—account workers and unpaid family workers.

Employment

Employed persons ('employees' in the terms of the economic status classification) made up 49.5% of the total labor force in. Yugoslavia, according to the 1971 census.

63 TABLE 53. STATUS COMPOSITION OF THE LABOR FORCE, YUGOSLAVIA, 1961 AND 1971

1953 1961 1971

Total in 000's 7849 8340 8890 Percent composition Employees 31.6 43.6 49.5 Own-account workers 32.0 26.4 22.3 Employers 0.7 0.4 0.4 Unpaid family workers 35.7 29.3 21.1 Unknown 0.0 0.3 0.1 Temporarily employed abroad — — 6.6

Around 98% of these were employed in the social sector. It is important to note here that the social sector of the economy produced 81.8% of the total social product. Employment in the social sector lias Had a decisive effect in the socio-economic transformation of the working and total population in the postwar period. With a total population of 15.6 million in 1939 there were 920,000 employed persons, and in 1972. when total population was 20.7 million, 4,210,000 employed. Detailed figures for the postwar period are presented in Table 54.

TABLE 54. — EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS

Popul- Average employed per year atinn "^—^ Z '•, '• ~, Percent auon Totaj Females % insocial „f, . sector °f labor force employed a) Number in 000's 1952 16798 1734 421 24.3 1684 22.2 1962 18819 3318 959 28.9 3250 37.2 1964 19222 3608 1053 29.2 3535 42!5 1972 20722 4210 1372 32.6 4115 48.2

b) Average annual growth rate in percentage

1953-1972 1.1 . 4.5 6.1 - - 4.6 1953-1962 1.1 6.7 8.6 - 6.8 1963-1967 1.1 1.4 2.7 - 1.3 1968-1972 0.9 2.0 3.4 - 1.9

64 Employment rose quickest in the period from 1953 to 1962 (6.7%), slowed down to a very low rate from 1963 to 1967 (1.4%) and then rose again to over 2% after 1968. During the period of low growth in employment there was a large rise in the working-age contingent due to the fertility trends of the earlier period, and this demographic pressure compounded difficulties in providing employment for the up-coming generations. At the same time the transfer to non-agricultural employment remained at the same high level, generated especially by the propensity ol the young for non—agricultural occupations. In view of the current age composition of the population, the relatively high numbers seeking employment and the added problem of finding employment for workers returning from abroad, as well as the age composition of the employed segment of the labor force (crude annual reproduction rate of this segment is estimated at around 2.1 to 2.2% for Yugoslavia as a whole), the employment growth rate which was around 2.0% over 1968-1972 should be raised to around 3.0% over the forthcoming long-term period. Over the next ten years or so an average annual rate of around 3% would in the main meet demand, though in the initial years the rate would have to be higher than this and then drop subsequently, giving a ten-year average of 3%. Female employment in the country as a whole has risen faster than total and male employment. The female population .is increasingly entering the ranks of the economically active, which leads to greater involvement in other activities as well (political and social). The large numbers of females attending secondary vocational schools and university have influenced the growth in employment. In view of the findings presented earlier on differential female fertility, and the greater geographic mobility of the employed population, etc., evidently with the rise in female employment there is an increase in the number opting for family planning in order to coordinate procreation with their other goals and desires. Accompanying this is a growing need for more intensive social support, particularly by the working organizations în which the female is employed, to help coordinate her reproductive and other functions. Legislation is important in this regard, but the implementation of this legislation is the crucial factor. In Yugoslavia, although much has been done in this field, the low rate of reproduction, especially in some categories of the employed, points to the need for even greater social involvement. Further, as Table 54 reveals, the significance of the employed segment of the labor force is increasing, namely, the percentage of the labor force employed rose from 22% in 1952 to around 47% in 1972.* In the latter year, regional differences ranged from 36.0% (Kosovo) to 53.0% (Croatia), and to as much as 71.0% (Slovenia). The percentage of females in the total employed was very high in Slovenia (around 42%) and low in Kosovo (17%), ranging in the other regions from 25 to 27% (Bosnia—Hercegovina, Montenegro and Macedonia) and 30 to 36% (Serbia Proper, Vojvodina and Croatia). Comparison of indices of fertility and birth rate with the share of females in the total employed shows a very marked correlation between them. Regions with lower female employment have higher fertility. The rate of growth of employment was high over 1953—1962 in all regions and then — after the economic reform and implementation of the intensive—employment * Excluding those temporarily employed abroad from the total labor force would put this percentage at 51%.

65 TABLE 55. — EMPLOYMENT IN YUGOSLAVIA, THE REPUBLICS AND PROVINCES (1952—1972)

Bosnia Mont- Croat Mace- Slov- Serbia SFRY -Herceg en- -ia donia enia Total Proper Voy Kos- ovina egro vodí ovo _ .—•— na 1. Average annual rate of growth of employment 1953-1972 4.5 3.9 5.7 4.0 6.1 4.1 5.0 5,0 4.9 5.7 1963-1972 2.4 2.5 2.5 1.8 3.3 2.4 2.6 32 0.9 4.2 1953-1962 6.7 5.2 9.0 6.2 8.9 5.9 7.5 6.9 9.0 7.3

2. Number employed per 1000 population 1952 103 96 72 122 70 178 87 90 99 48 1962 176 133 148 208 148 292 lfrl 158 213 77 1972 203 150 169 235 174 341 189 200 223' 90

3. Number seeking employment per 1000 employed 1952 26 16 17 29 66 18 26 24~~ 30 18 1952 71 63 62 66 153 20 84 83 60 225 1972 75 66 70 45 205 22 94 90 72 216 policy - dropped appreciably (Table 55). Over the entire period the average rate of growth varied regionally from 4-6%. The employment rate per 1000 population was considerably lower in the less developed regions than in the more developed, namely ranging from 90 (Kosovo), to 150 (Bosnia-Hercegovina), 169 (Montenegro) and 174 (Macedonia) in 1972. Growth in the number of employed per 1000 population is a function of both the employment growth rate and total population trends. These regions had a considerably higher rate of population growth during this period. In the more developed regions, however, the number of employed per 1000 population ranged from 200 (Serbia Proper), 223 (Vojvodina), 235 (Croatia) to as high as 341 (Slovenia). The share of industry in the total employed rose in all regions, increasing at a faster rate than, the proportionate shares of the employed in other economic branches. The shares of the employed in non-economic activities (education-culture, social activities, social and state services) have either remained unchanged or dropped slightly. The number seeking employment (temporarily out of work) was on the rise in all regions in the period observed, but was considerably higher in Macedonia and Kosovo, that is, in the less developed, high population growth, regions.

Skills Structure of the Employed

With the expansion of education and the acquisition of skills in other ways, the skills structure of the employed in Yugoslavia is improving rapidly. Whereas in 1961. 10.2% of the total employed were highly-trained or highly—skilled, by 1971 this

66 •percentage had risen to 16.7%. The percentage of skilled or trained increased from 34.5% to 40.8% over the same period. The remainder were semi-skilled and unskilled. Because of the interdependency between demographic processes and the socio-o.ccupational structure of the employed and their dependents (housewives), changes in the skills structure of the employed are also reflected in demographic development.

Manpower Reserves

Only a part of the working—age contingent of the population (males aged 15—64 and females aged 15-59) are economically active (62.6% in Yugoslavia in 1971). The remainder belong to various categories of dependents (secondary school and university students, housewives, occupationaJly unfit) or income-recipients (old age, invalid or family pensioners, etc.). As pointed out earlier, the category of pupils and students is growing, causing a decline in the percentage of economically active in the working—age contingent, but the increasing number of female youth being schooled will raise the activity rate of the female population. The absolute number of housewives and their relative share in the working—age contingent depends on many factors but primarily on the level of economic development, the qualifications and educational structure of the female population, and on the action of demographic (number of children in the family), social (possibility of placing children in pre—school care centers, scnools etc. during working hours) and psycho—social factors (attitude towards female employment, etc.) Current development, economically and socially, in Yugoslavia favors greater inclusion of the working—age female population in the labor force. Determining manpower reserves would in the main amount to examination of the category of dependents mentioned, especially in regard to the housewives group, were all those registered by the census as economically active actually fully employed. Some economically active persons, however, are not fully employed, that is, are only partially employed. In (his, as in other countries, there are considerable so-called latent manpower reserves in the private agricultural sector, when the available labor supply is calculated on the basis of the economically active aged 16—64 years and labor demand is calculated on the basis of the present level of development of the production forces. These reserves are greater in the less developed and depressed agricultural regions, and -vary as a function of the organization of agricultural production or the development of the productive forces, and the age and other distributions of the agricultural labor force. In the past period these reserves were at a high level but with changes in the socio-economic structure of the population they are diminishing. Latent manpower reserves in agriculture have been depleted by the transfer of the farm population to non-agricultural activities, which has been very significant throughout the postwar period, that is during the industrialization of the country. Although there are certain manpower reserves in other economic branches as well, they are of tar less significance, specially since the economic reform of 1964, when the intensive-employment policy was adopted.

67 VI. PROJECTIONS OF THE YUGOSLAV POPULATION TO THE YEAR 2000

According to population projections prepared in Yugoslavia, a slackening is expected in population growth over the coming period. This will be influenced, above all, by a continuing gradual decline in natural increase. It is assumed that in the coming • period the number of emigrants will outweigh the number of immigrants as before. As a consequence of net migration, total growth of the population will be lower than natural increase*.

Total Population

Taking only the components of natural increase into consideration, the total population of Yugoslavia is expected to increase from 20,371,000 in 1970 to 23,236,000 in 1985 and 25,653,000 in 2000. With the migration component, expected growth would be lower, and the estimated total population in 1985 is 22,896,000 inhabitants. Anticipating an unchanged trend in regard to external migration, by the end of the millenium there would be around 24,900,000 inhabitants in Yugoslavia. Specific projections for the republics and provinces are presented in Table 56. Un the assumed fertility variants** (gradual rise in low-fertility regions, i.e. in Vojvodina, Serbia Proper, Croatia and Slovenia, and further decreases in the medium to high-fertility regions, i.e. Bosnia-Hercegovina, Macedonia, Montenegro and Kosovo) a decline may be expected in the crude birthrate from 18 (around 1970) to about 16%« in the year 2000. There should be no substantial change in the level of the crude birth rate in the low-fertility regions, while in the presently medium to high-fertility regions this rate should be at around 16 to 18ftó» at ilie end of the millenium (Bosnia-Hercego- vina, Montenegro and Macedonia). In Kosovo, luwever, the birth rate may be expected to drop from 36*«, , (around 1970) to around 26 '•;><, at that time. Crude 'female reproduction in Yugoslavia as a whole may be expected to be at a * Population projections have been prepared in Yugoslavia up to the year 2000. These have taken only the natural components of population dynamics (fertility and mortality) into account. As in other countries, four different variants were used to estimate future fertility (high, medium, low and constant fertility), and here the ' medium' variant is employed as the most plausible. Only one variant of age-specific mortality was used in the projection. Migration (external and internal, amongst the republics and provinces) has been estimated only up to 1985, on the basis of past long-term trends. •

** Age-specific fertility rates were used in defining all the fertility assumptions.

68 TABLE 56. — TOTAL. POPULATION PROJECTIONS TO THE YEAR 2000

Bosnia Mont-CroaMoCroatt MacMce Slov- SFRY -Herce-en- -ia donia enia Total Proper Voj- Kosovo govina egro vodina

a) based on natural increase (OOP's) 1970 20371 3703 523 4412 1626 1720 8387 5226 1948 1213 1985 23236 4523 630 4662 2053 1876 9492 5645 2031 1816 2000 25653 5258 725 4829 2413 2015 10414 5830 2055 2529 b) based on natural increase and migration (OOP's) 1985 22896 4194 591 4679 2005 1908 9516 5726 2082 1707 rate of around 1.11 in the year 2000, and between 1.00 and 1.16 in the republics and the province of Vojvodina. The rate in Kosovo, however, should drop from 2.61 in 1970 to 1.56 in 2000. Mean life expectancy at birth in Yugoslavia should rise, for males from 66.4 in 1970 to 68.6 in 2000, and for females from 69.7 to 72.1 years over the same period. Regional differences in this respect are expected to decrease considerably. It is assumed that there will be a substantial drop in the still rather high level of infant mortality. Under the infuence ot demographic ageing processes, a mild uptrend is expected in the crude death rate (from 9.2 in 1970 to 10.2 %i at the end offne millenium). Regional differences will be conditioned by the particular age distribution of the populations. Regions with low fertility today .md ;i higher proportion of the aged in their total populations should have an 11 to 12"«» crude death rate by the end of the millenium; the other regions characterized at present by medium to high fertility and a younger age structure, from 6 to 8.5"Sw Whereas natural increase in Yugoslavia in the first five-year projection (1970-1975) is estimated at 9"¡m. (rather close to the actual natural increase in the period 1970-1973), by the end of the niilienium it is expected to decrease to around 6"¡m . Regional differences at the beginning and end of the projection period are indicated below:

Natural increase per 1000 population per year Bosnia Mont- Croat Mace- Slov Serbia Herce ene- -ia donia enia Total Proper Voj- Kosovo govina gro vodina 1970-1975 13.7 12.2 3.8 16.3 5.6 8.6 6.1 2.3 27.0 1995-2000 8.7 8.4 2.1 9.3 4.5 5.8 1.8 0.5 19.6

69 Accordingly, considerable differences in level of natural increase may be expected to be sustained over the coming period between regions that presently have low, medium and high fertility. Namely, in view of the trends in crude death rate resulting from the different age structures of the population, over the coming period the mortality component may be expected to have a somewhai greater effect on natural increase than • is the case today. The masculinity rate should increase gradually from 966 to 993 males per 1000 females over the period 1970—2000. In Macedonia and Kosovo it may be expected to remain over 1000. Migration is expected to have substantial effects on total population dynamics. They have been projected only up to 1985. In some regions inter-republican and inter—provincial migration will be more significant than external migration. Migration out of less developed regions distinguished by a high rate of natural increase could even continue to rise after 1985. Taking into consideration both external migration and internal migration and the effects of migration on natural increase, the differences between projections for 1985 based only on natural increase, under (a) in Table 56. and based on migration as well, are as follows (in thousands);

Yugoslavia -340 Croatia +17 Serbia (Total)+24 Vojvodina +51 Bosnia-Herce- govina -326 Macedonia -4S Serbia Proper +g[ Kosovo . -109 Montenegro — 39 Slovenia -32 The balance of migration (internal and external), then, should in the coming period have a sizeable effect on population trends in Yugoslavia as a whole, and in • Bosnia—Hercegovina, Montenegro, Kosovo and Macedonia (negative net migration). ' Although the more developed regions (Slovenia, Croatia, Vojvodina and Serbia Proper) will have a more significant positive balance of migration in relation to the other, less developed regions, this balance will be considerably diminished because of external migration. It must be pointed out that migration may be expected to have an even greater effect on the composition of the population (age, economic, etc.) than on the total size of the population.

Changes in the Age Composition and Age Contingents of the Population

Changes in the age structure of the Yugoslav population produced by the secular decline in fertility will continue in the coming period. Demographic ageing of the population will be more marked in the populations of Bosnia-Hercegovina, Montenegro and Macedonia as well, but will be slower than over the past few decades in the more developed regions (Slovenia, Croatia, Vojvodina and Serbia Proper). The population ol' Kosovo, on the other hand will only have entered the first phase of demographic ageing by the year 2000. The most important changes expected in the age composition'of the population of Yugoslavia are presented in Table 57.

70 TABLE 57. — PROJECTED AGE COMPOSITION OF THE POPULATION OF YUGOSLAVIA BY MAIN AGE GROUPS (Percentage)

Bosnia Mont- Croat- Mace- Slew- . Serbia Age group !SFRY Herce- enegro ia donia enia Total Proper Voj- Koso- govina vodina vo

a) based on natural increase 0-19 37.2 46.2 43.5 32.3 43,6 33.5 34.8 32.1 30.7 53.3 1970 20-59 50.8 46.2 45.6 53.0 47.7 51.8 52.5 52.5 55.1 39.7 60 + 12.0 7.6 10.9 14.7 8.7 14.7 12.7 13.4 14.3 7.0

0-19 32.1 35.8 34.7 27.7 37.5 30.8 31.5 27.3 26.0 50.2 1985 20-59 55.5 56.2 54.8 57.0 52.8 55.0 55.2 58.1 57.9 43.7 60 + 12.4 8.0 10.5 15.3 9.7 14.2 13.3 14.6 16.1 6.1

0-19 30.4 32.3 31.1 27.0 33.ó 29.7 30.4 26.1 26.0 50.2 2000 20-59 53.2 54.9 54.5 53.4 54.1 53.2 52.0 53.1 53.3 48.2 60 + 16.4 12.8 14.4 19.6 12.3 17.1 17.6 20.8 21.3 7.1

b) based on natural increase and migration 0-19 32.1 35.8 34.6 27.7 37.6 30.9 31.5 27.6 26.3 51.1 1985 20-59 55.4 55.8 54.5 57.0 52.5 55.1 55.2 58.0 58.0 42.6 60 + 12.5 8.4 10.9 15.3 9.9 14.0 13,3 14.5 15.7 6.3

Over the period as a whole the population in the youngest age group (0-19) will increase by 234,000, but will decrease up to 1980. In relation to the total population, however this group will decline from 37.2 lo 30.4%, which together with an ageing index of 0.54 indicates that by the year 2000 the Yugoslav population will have moved to the older population group. A regional analysis shows thaï the rates of change in the mum age groups will differ. In the lo\v-feii¡liiy regions the proportion of the youngest age group in the total population may be expected to decline till 1985 and then flatten out till the end of the projection period, but at the low level of 26 to 30%. At the same time, as a consequence of the long-term fertility decline, the proportion of the aged population will rise appreciably (to 17-21% in the year 2000). In the medium-fertility regions the proportion of the youngest age group will drop throughout the projection period but this drop will be much steeper up to 1985. In these regions the process of ageing will continue, although their populations will not yet be old by 2000, The smallest changes in age composition are anticipated in Kosovo. As a consequence of the expected fertility decline there should be a relative drop in the youngest population group even though in absolute size it should practically double. As a function of earlier trends in fertility and mortality, up to the year 2000 the proportion (and absolute

71 number) of the middle-aged, especially the younger middle-aged group, should rise, while the proportion of the aged population (over 60 years) should remain constant. < The working-age contingent (15-64 year old males and 15-59 year old females) is of especial importance for economic and social planning. In Yugoslavia this contingent will undergo little change, relatively speaking, although in absolute size it will grow by 3,452,000 over the coming 30 years, which will create additional demands for employment and training in occupations capable of absorbing this surplus. Employment pressures will be greater throughout the period in the medium to high-ferility regions, while in the low-fertility regions this will hold only up to 1985, after which there should be a relative decline in this contingent. The number of pre-school children in Yugoslavia is expected to increase by 200,000, owing largely to increases in Kosovo (130,000) and in part in Macedonia (29,000). The number of school-age children in Yugoslavia will grow by only 83,000 to the end of this century. Increases are expected in Macedonia (41,000), Slovenia (16,000) and in Kosovo (214,000), while a decrease totalling 188,000 may be expected in the other republics. Especially interesting is the anticipated rise in the contingent of fertile females by 892,000 by the end of the century, because this increase will produce an absolute.. increase in births, regardless of the fact that a decline in fertility is expected in this period. As in the other contingents, differences between regions with medium and low fertility will be influenced by differences in past and future trends in fertility and mortality. Up to 1985 migration will not have a significant effect on age composition but ;ifter this date its effects could be greater should there be a rise in the intensity of internal fin ter—republican and inter—provincial) migration in response to heightened labor demands in the presently more developed regions which will have a mon' unfavorable age composition as demographic ageing processes become even more pronounced. ' Labor Force Trends to 1985

Further changes are expected in age—specific activity fates in the coming period. Amongst the young, this rate will be on a downtrend because of the increasing scale of secondary and higher education, amongst females aged 25 to 49 years it will rise, while amongst the upper middle—aged and especially the aged population it will decline with shifts in the economic structure of the population. In view of all this, and correlated with the age composition, the labor force will rise only gradually, stagnate or even go into decline in the more developed regions. However, in the less developed regions it will grow more rapidly (Table 58).

Projections of the Agricultural and Non—Agricultural Labor Forces

Trends in the total and active agricultural and non-agricultural populations have been estimated on the basis of an assumed annual rate of growth of 3% in employment

72 TABUE 58. — PROJECTIONS OF THE YUGOSLAV LABOR FORCE (in 000}

Year SFRJ Bosnia Monte- Croa- Mace- Slove- - Serbia Herce- negro tia donia nia Total Proper Voj- Kosovo govina • vodina

Excluding migration 1970 8848 1353 171 2012 622 835 3855 2710 829 316 1985 9645 1754 224 2044 776 850 3997 2611 871 515

Including migration 1985 9516 1615 209 2052 755" 867 4019 2650 894 475

in the non-agricultural sector, and estimated trends in the dependency coefficients in the agricultural and non-agricultural populations. According to the projections, the total agricultural population will drop in the coming period, from 38.2% in 1970 to 22.5% in 1985, while the agricultural labor force will decrease from 48.2% to 30.0% in the same period. Regional differentials in the proportionate weights of the total and active agricultural populations will diminish over the coming period.

Projections of the Number and Size of Households

The total p umber of households in Yugoslavia is expected to grow trom 5,343,000 in 1970 to 6,733,000 in 1985 (accounting for migration as well), which would entail an average increase of around 92,000 per year. As in the .preceeding period, the total number of households will have a faster trend of growth than the population since it is expected that average household size will drop from 3.8 persons in 1970 to 3.4 in 1985. Regional differences in average household size should diminish but will remain pronounced, particularly as concerns Kosovo, where average size of household is expected to shrink from 6.6 in 1970 to 5.2 in 1985.

Review of Changes in Other Population Distributions, Pattern of Settlement, etc.

Projections are not available for changes in other structures of the population. Nevertheless; present trends in respect of education of the young, social and occupational mobility, shifts in the skills structure of the employed, etc., suggest that

73 even faster changes can be expected in these characteristics in the coming period. The same holds for the general state of health of the population. Past trends in the level of urbanization should continue4possibly at an even quicker rate than to date since urbanization is lagging considerably behind deagrarianization. This should be facilitated by faster residential construction in urban—type settlements, which is slated in the long—term economic and social plan of development for Yugoslavia. This means that more accelerated changes must be expected in the regional distribution of the population,which will be characterized by greater concentration in settlements offering many—sided opportunities for development. However, the problem of excessively heavy concentration of the population in principal cities shall have to be given special attention in overall and regional, planning.

74 VII SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND POLICY RELATED TO DEVELOPMENT AND POPULATION

The nature of population change in Yugoslavia makes some, at least brief reference to economic and social circumstances in the past essential. Even despite great advances in the postwar period, regional differentials are still wide and the country today is a true demographic mosaic composed of many varieties of demographic transition, ranging all the way from those typical of Asian countries to those found in northwestern Europe. The roots of these disparities unquestionably stretch back into the distant past. Cultural factors have played an important role in creating this demographic diversity. The traditional influences of three religions - Orthodox, Catholic and Moslem — and the intercrossing of oriental philosophy with European rationalism have been compounded more recently by the influence of socialist thought and ideology. The ramifications of each of these have not been fully evaluated but they must be considerable. Finally, that set of many circumstances which, unable to identify, we call the historical factor, had of course a defínate influence on the current demographic situation. The situation is even more complex than may at first appear, and cannot be explained by any one group or combination of groups of factors. It is not quite clear, for example, why a one-child family system has been the custom for a long time in a large area of eastern Serbia and not in other parts of Serbia where the population has the same ethnic origins, the same agricultural and rural, educational and cultural characteristics, and even though they fought the same wars and shared the same political destiny. Or. similarly, why infant mortality was long far higher in Vojvodina than in certain other parts of the country despite its economic, social and educational advantage. Historical statistics are available for small regions only and do not allow generalization. For more recent periods there are inconsistencies that contemporary data cannot explain. In seeking answers, then, we can only speculate that behavior must have been subject to diverse pressures and heavy stresses to have led to such divergent attitudes toward birth, death and migration. Attempts to explain economic and social change, or the absence thereof, arc also hampered by the scant historical statistics. But we can accept the general proposition that the advance of industry, commerce and monetary economy in the 19tl: .ind 20th Century proceeded gradually from the northwest to the southeast, and :n •.•conomic dichotomy between the northwestern and southeastern parts of the countn . with marked transitional features in the interspace, was an obvious consequence. In tlu-

75 postwar period, as the more abundant statistics show, there was rapid economic development of the country as a whole, but even this could not erase the persistent regional differences. i There is a high level of agreement amongst Yugoslav investigators on the importance of the national liberation war and the adoption of a socialist model of society in the acceleration of economic development. The introduction of planning is associated with these crucial events, which allowed more direct social control to be exerted on the direction and intensity of economic and social change. However, the socio-political system has not remained static during the postwar period. As early as the beginning of the 1950's, Yugoslav socialism shifted away from the predominant role of the state and central decision-making, towards self-management and decentralization. There were a number of stages in this progressive development (which cannot be gone into here) and the outcome is a socialist model unique to Yugoslavia. This model is characterized by a reliance on self-management in all spheres of life, the federative system's protection of the rights of-the republics and provinces whilst simultaneously ensuring a uniformity in the basic elements of the socialist development of the entire country. Obviously, self-management socialism is not only an expression of the aspirations and social and ethnic realities of Yugoslav society, but also an important factor in the formulation and pursuit of developmental policy.

The Historical Legacy in Brief

The ramifications of the Turkish conquest of the Balkan countries, which has been discussed earlier, and the military campaigns in the north and south that went on for more than two centuries, were still vividly present in the 19th and early 20th Century. Regions south of- the Sava and Danube Rivers remainded predominantly agrarian with the very modest beginnings of commerce and industry. Serbia and the southern areas were only linked up by rail to the north and Europe after 1884. In the northern and western areas, manufacturing began to develop around the middle of the 19th Century, based on coal and mineral resources in Slovenia, for example, and on rich . agricultural resources in Vojvodina. Extension'of the railroads and abolition of customs barriers within Austro-Hungary gave strong impetus to transport and communications, trade and commerce. But, as a whole, industrial development was slow and lagged considerably behind Central Europe. The turn of the 20th Century seems to have given a spurt to economic growth, but this was cut short by the First World War anil the extensive war devastation, particularly in Serbia and parts of Macedonia. With the founding of the new, unified state in 1918 the centuries-long strivings of the Yugoslav peoples for national independence were realized. Economically, conditions on the new national territory improved: the enlarged market demanded new products while the large supply of cheap labor v/as a key factor in economic activity. Between 1918 and 1929 some 1200 new industrial plants were established and invested capital increased by about 35%. But numerous factors put a brake on growth, particularly the inadequate communications between regions, the agricultural crisis of the mid-1920's and the Depression of the early 1930's. Later, growth did not pick up adequately because of the difficult situation in agriculture and the absence of suitable state policies.

76 Understandably, under these circumstances, regional economic differences continued lo sharpen. A crucial characteristic of the between-vvars economic and demographic situation was sluggish structural change. From 1923/25 to 1939 the primary sector remained the most important sector of the economy, its share in national income only dropping from 58 to 51%. There was modest growth in tiie secondary sector, which rose from 21% to 30%, while the tertiary slipped from 21% to 19%. With such slow growth in the non-agricultural sector it was not possible to find employment for even the natural increase in the labor force let alone for a transfer of the population from agriculture. Actually, there was a decrease in the percentage of agricultural population, from 79% in 1921 to 75% in 1938, but the absolute number dependent on agriculture rose from 9 million to 11.5 million. Agricultural over-population grew and constituted an intricate process of degradation, in which extensive use of natural resources was accompanied by low yields and slow technological advance, and the massive under-employment by a low standard of living and fast reproduction of the poor population. As a conseguence. the average rate of economic growth from 1926 to 1939 was less than 2.2% yearly, barely more than the rate of population growth. Per capita national income in the prewar period is estimated at around 180 US dollars, one of the lowest in Europe. Meeting the cultural and social demands of a multi-national and multi-lingual community with divergent cultural backgrounds, as is the case with Yugoslavia, is in itself a difficult matter. It was especially difficult with a centralistic monarchy which, particularly after 1931, resorted to dictatorial methods to settle conflicts between hegemonistic and centifugal tendencies and at the same time.stjfle the aspirations of the poor classes. One of the far-reaching consequences of this political situation was the denial of various ethnical groups the right to the use of their mother tongues, which retarded the development of education. In the first ten of the between-war years the illiteracy rate declined from 51% to 45%, but illiteracy" continued to prevail amongst the young generations. In this respect, Yugoslavia was one of the most backward countries in Europe. Deficient education affected all spheres of human life and, moreover, constituted an enormous social problem. Similarly, health and sanitary conditions were unenviable. The high general and infant mortality mirrored not only the low standard of living but also the numerous diseases prevalent, such as tuberculosis, malaria and endemic syphilis which threatened not small regions. Labor and social welfare legislation was rudimentary and the legal system remained under the influence of earlier divisions of the land. Urban pauperism, unhealthy settlements (slums) and under-employment were ameliorated with great difficulty, slowly and not sufficiently thoroughly. However, in their magnitude and reprecussions on the populace, socio-economic conditions in the village were most likely even harder, because the general backwardess was reinforced by an obsolete agricultural system and the peasant's heavy indebtedness. Two agrarian reforms initiated in the between-war period were not carried through properly for a number of reasons, and as a whole did not bring the results anticipated. It can be said, at little risk, that the basic determinants of the population of Yugoslavia in the. between-war period rested in the backward economy and in the traditional peasant society which had only barely begun to be sloughed off with industrial progress. War operations from 1941 to 1945 dealt heavy blows to the Yugoslav population, economy and society. Direct war losses of human lives are estimated at 1.7

77 million, and the loss through diminished birth rate, between 400,000 and 600,000. Postwar assessments of war damages show that 36% of industrial plant was destroyed, 52% of normal-gauge and 33% of narrow-gauge railway lines, 61% of overseas and 67% of coastal shipping was sunk or confiscated, etc. Prewar livestock herds were halved, and nearly 300,000 hectares of forest destroyed. More than a fifth of residential units were either destroyed or severely damaged, as well as many schools, hospitals and public institutions. During the war economic activity was reduced to a minimum and the heavy war devastation hit the already poor and backward country even harder.

Postwar Reconstruction of the Society and Economy

For Yugoslavia,the end of the war and liberation meant the beginning of radical social and economic change. During the war the people's liberation movement, led by Marshal Tito, had won the great support of the populace, and with the new constitution of 1946, the country was reorganized into a federative republic with a direct socialist course. There is no need to go into political events of the time here, and only the economic and social reforms of direct relevance to the population will be discussed. In the immediate postwar years social legislation was changed profoundly, including laws pertaining to marriage and family, labor and employment, education, social insurance and the health services. Industry, banking, communications and transport, and commerce were nationalized and after the unsuccessful attempt at collectivization only agriculture and small crafts and trades remained in the private sector. One crucial measure was the agrarian reform, which entitled poor peasants to a necessary minimum of land and enabled formation of large social agricultural enterprises. It was accompanied by colonization of Vojvodina and part of Slavonia and represents the biggest, and last, organized migration of farm population. Rehabilitation and reconstruction of the economy started up in the last few months of the war in liberated parts of the country, but systematic work only began in mid—1945. Repatriation of prisoners of war, the compulsory mobilization of workers ;md former concentration camp internees created a large labor pool in search of employment and available for reconstruction. This was based mainly on labor-intensive methods and the participation of volunteer youth brigades. Owing to its status as an ally and as a founding member of the United Nations, in the reconstruction years Yugoslavia received considerable aid in food, transport and equipment, foremostly through UNRRA. Economic rehabilitation took from 1945 to 1947 and consisted of very diverse organized measures and spontaneous actions undertaken by the government and the populace to normalize economic conditions as far and fast as possible. Naturally systematic data on this effort does not exist because often it could not be measured statistically. Existing estimates suggest that reconstruction of the economy was basically achieved somewhere around 1948, with the prewar level of industrial output actually surpassed by 1947, while agricultural output was raised much more slowly. In 1948 Yugoslavia went over to planned development of the economy, based on the first five-year plan. Although the plan had to take the many demands of postwar reconstruction of the economy into account, it nevertheless put the main stress on

78 industrialization as a mode of economic development that ensures rapid advance of the entire economy. The development of agriculture, transport and communications, commerce and other branches was seen as functionally related to industrial advance, in the light of which the significance of labor, training and education was emphasized. Great attention was given to social problems, in keeping with the new conceptions. Later, in the early 1950's a new, important dimension was added to developmental policy - worker and social self-management — as an expression of the socialist and humanitarian demands of a society in the process of rapid social reconstruction. It is especially relevant to note here that initially, demographic aspects of development were not taken into consideration at all. This came much later, in the 1951 — 1961 plan, which paid particular attention to changes in employment and the socio-economic structure of the population. Subsequently, there was a gradual appreciation of the other components of population change as well, generally more in response to rather than in anticipation of these changes.

Economic Growth and Structural Changes

The orientation towards accelerated economic growth has on the long-run proven justified. Until the 1960's it called for considerable sacrifice because the high rate of investments dictated a high rate of saving and restricted consumption. But this policy has undeniably borne fruit. On average for the past 25 years, the social product has grown 6.6% annually. The socialist economy has grown appreciably faster, at a rate of 7.9%. With the steady decline in population growth, the increase in per capita social product has really been impressive. This progress has however been marred by wide annual oscillations in growth of social product and two substantial slowdowns. The former was the consequence of the economic blockade and serious difficulties in foreign trade which led to a 1.7% average annual growth rate from 1948 to 1952, and the latter was due to the introduction of the economic reform and stabilization measures which pulled the growth rate down to 2-3% between 1956 and 1967. Industry has contributed most to the growth of the social product, gaining at a rate of almost 10% per year on average. The lively growth of other non—agricultural activities basically followed the pace of the manufacturing industries. Right up to the mid-195O's, agricultural output was lower than the prewar level so that with the considerable population increase large quantities of foodstuffs had to be imported. Numerous measures to promote agriculture have had results and over the last few years it has been able to meet domestic demand as well as achieve a small net export. There are at least three aspects of Yugoslav economic growth that are of direct or indirect significance for demographic change. The first relates to structural changes in the economy, which have definately been favorable. From 1947 to 1972 the share of the primary industries in the social product dropped from 48% to 20%, notwithstanding an appreciable rise in agricultural output. The secondary industries' share increased from 29% to 47%, largely because of a tenfold rise in the volume of industrial output. The tertiary industries' share grew from 23% to 33%, although this figure does not reveal the full extent of growth in this sector since Yugoslav statistics do not include such activities as health, education, etc. here. The second aspect concerns the rapid proportional

79 growth of the socialist sector which accounted for 82% of the social product in 1972 as against 60% in 1947 (after nationalization). The third, regional aspect of development also reveals substantial advance, for all regions show a high rate of growth. However, even though policy has aimed throughout at speeding-up the growth of the less-developed regions, regional economic differences per capita have continued to heighten. Thus, despite substantial changes in the structure of the social product and in spite of an improvement in its sources, on the regional plane features of an unevenness in development have persevered and in their own way bolstered regional differences in reproduction and population growth. Essentially, the fast growth and diversification of the economy have been able to meet the rising demands of the population, particularly because at first agricultural shortfalls were compensated by imports and later rectified by raised production. The standard of living has improved very substantially, but with perceptible differences between individual strata and regions. The personal incomes of workers in the least—developed region is around 20% lower than in the most-developed, but their standard of living is considerably lower because of the large family size and low family employment rate. Social and regional differences in living standards arise, then, not only from production differentials bufalso differential demographic situations. Consequently, policies to raise these standards came up against a serious problem that could not be removed solely by accelerating economic growth. A serious stumbling-block in satisfying the material aspects of the standard of living was and still is the housing problem. Right up until the 1960's economic policy discouraged housing constuction because of the needs of direct production investments even in spite of the severe effects of the war on housing supply. For familiar reasons, the number of households grew faster than the population, so that the housing shortage became more and more critical. After the adoption of the new policy the rate of housing construction quickly caught up with the rate of increase in the number of households, and in a short time even overtook it. But the time lost has still not been made up, and at present the housing shortage runs at about 700,000 units. This shortage obviously arose from a failure to synchronize home construction with demographic change. It has certainly been a factor in the drop in birth rate, for senior workers with longer years of service have priority in the allocation of housing, which puts young couples in a difficult position. However, the actual extent of this influence cannot be precised.

Growth and Problems of Employment

In a society that suffers from high chronic under—employment in agriculture, which shows an upward trend because of the high population increase and inadequate employment opportunities, employment becomes a central political problem. This is the case in Yugoslavia, except that the tasks of employment policy are more complex than ia many other countries. As an undeveloped country, Yugoslavia has had to maximalize the employment growth rate; because of its socialist system it has had to attain high standards of employment and social security; its participation in world markets demands high productivity. With such ambitious, sometimes contradictory demands, Yugoslav policy, has concentrated on the formation of favorable economic and social conditions of

80 employment, respecting the individual as a worker and producer, and encouraging the rapid growth of non—farm employment as a component of the rapid growth of the economy as a whole. The arguments for rapid increase in non—farm employment lay in the growth o\ .general and sector productivity, in the transfer of the population from low incomes in agriculture to high incomes in the urban economy, i.e. in raising the standard of living, and in changes in the socio-economic composition of the labor force and the population. This policy has heen pursued implicitly or explicitly from the very first postwar years, and was formulated in detail in the mid—1950's in the 1957-1961 Plan. Over 1947-1972 around 3 million new joßs were opened up in the non-agricultural sector, and the total number of workers employed rose from 1.2 million to 4.2 million. The average annual rate of growth in employment has amounted to over 5% in the last two and a half decades. It has been fastest in the economy and a lot more gradual in non—economic activities. Industry and mining have been the propulsive sectors employment—wise, and the socialist enterprises and institutions have been the main source of new employment. Although growth rate has been higher in the less—developed regions* the absolute increase in the number of employed has been greater in the more-developed. The basic determinants of growth in the labor force and employment have been discussed elsewhere. But, it must be reiterated here that non—farm employment has grown much faster than the labor force. The non—farm sector, as a result, has been able to absorb not only the entire natural increase but also a significant portion of the relative labor surpluses in agriculture. This positive trend brought faster changes in the economic structure of the labor force and the population, which has been attributed special importance in Yugoslav policies. On the one hand this has diminished the relative proportion of traditional forms of employment, the work of children and the elderly, and considerably raised the proportion of women and skilled workers employed in the non—agricultural sector. On the other hand the total population dependent on agriculture was whittled down from 10.6 million in 1948 to 7.8 million in 1971, that is, by 2.8 million, while the non—farm population increased during the same period from 5.2 million to 12.7 million, that is, by 7.5 million. The share of the farm population in the total population has constantly decreased and by 1971 had fallen to 38%. This was one of the chief motives of the social transformation. The shifts in the economic structure of the labor force and the population stimulated economically—justified migration, the growth of towns and cities and the urban population. But this fundamentally very positive trend was not without its attendant drawbacks. By the beginning of the 1950's patent unemployment appeared as the combined resultant of the heavy pressures of the farm labor force on agricultural resources and the increasing opportunity for employment in industry. The first labor exchanges were established then, their scope and significance in the individual republics and provinces growing with the growth in labor supply. Adding considerably to the swell of people seeking employment were farm migrants, unskilled workers, and women. Although the number of unemployed gradually increased, the absorption capacities of the economy were high, so that the faster rise of employment constantly diminished the social importance of unemployment.

81 This was not the case, however, in the mid—1960's, when restrictive measures aimed at establishing an l'intensive model' of the economy produced stagnation and even a slight decline in the number of employed. Coinciding with high influx from the large poswar 'baby boom' generations, these measures caused a sharp jump in the number of unemployed, which exceeded 330,000 by 1969. This slowdown in employment and rise in unemployment coincided with high demands for labor in Western Europe v/hich, given the liberal passport conditions and cheap fares over the relatively short distances, could not but lead to heavy departures to take up temporary work abroad. The number of temporary emigrants from Yugoslavia climbed sharply and reached, according to the 1971 census, 672,000 and most probably even more. These were predominantly economically active (592,000) people, young and male. In response to this newly—arisen situation Yugoslav policy turned first towards protecting the labor and social rights of the workers and, then through bilateral contracts, to regulation of the volume and directions of this temporary emigration. At the end of the I960's employment policies were re—examined in this new light and stress was placed on the need to create better opportunities for employment and to raise living standards so as to gradually reduce the number of temporary emigrants. Elements of this policy were written into the 1971-1975 Social Plan of Development of Yugoslavia and are reckoned on in the program of long-term development. The paradoxical situation in which Yugoslavia has in the course of twenty—five years quadrupled non—farm employment and at the same time has over 300,000 unemployed, nearly 800,000 temporary emigrants and almost one—third surplus labor in agriculture, is the outcome of numerous factors in the distant and near past. It demonstrates that the problem of the labor force and employment is very intricate even given rapid economic growth, a decline in the rate of population growth and lowered labor force increase, because the excess population in agriculture has a decisive effect on the supply of labor. The structural aspect obviously makes the problem of employment far more complex than it is believed to be in even the most authoritative scientific works. Its complexity is the greater inasmuch as it also has a regional dimension which, as pointed out earlier, is weighed down in Yugoslavia with considerable economic, demographic and social differences.

Migration and Urbanization

The profound changes in the economy and society of Yugoslavia, condensed into a short span of. two and a half decades, necessarily led to a considerable rise in mobility. After the extensive and long—lasting pre—industrial migrations, the settlement of Yugoslavia in its present-day form took shape somewhere before the end of the 19th Century. In keeping with its predominantly agrarian character, the population lived in 28,000 settlements, in the great majority of cases, small villages. Postwar industrializa- tion began to change the- settlement pattern and heightened the propensity to migrate. With time, migration became more complicated, including very numerous migration flows over short distances, long distances and between large regions, together with flows abroad. At the same time there was an intensification of movement from the village into

82 towns and between urban centers. Wartime and postwar circumstances naturally affected migration on the Yugoslav part of the Balkan Peninsula. The withdrawal of the German national minority from the northern parts of Yugoslavia with the German occupation army took place in the last few months of the war. One of the first measures directly after the war was the colonization of Vojvodina which, coupled with the agrarian reform was the biggest organized migrationary undertaking. In the 1950's small groups of Italians, an insignificant number of Jews and large parties of Turks departed from Yugoslavia. At the same time small groups of former Yugoslav emigrants returned to the country from European and overseas countries. All these were, one—time migrations arising from postwar readjustments and carried out on the basis of ad hoc bilateral agreements between Yugoslavia and the relevant countries. It must be added here that at the time Yugoslav policy was not disposed towards external migration and restricted it by largely administrative measures. The evolution of policy during the 1960's led to complete liberalization in choice of place of abode and movement over the borders, and to a reform of the passport regime accompanied by agreements with numerous countries on the abolition of visas. Migration policy was thus also liberalized, but more out of respect for the constitutional rights of citizens than with the intention of encouraging or discouraging international migration. One of the consequences of this policy was a moderate volume of emigration, which in the 1960's slightly exceeded 200,000, or around 10% of the ten-year natural increase. Another consequence was temporary emigration for the purpose of employment abroad, which has been dealt with earlier. A third consequence, though much smaller in extent, was a rise in the number of Yugoslavs working abroad for Yugoslav enterprises (on construction sites, in commerce, etc.). It must be noted that in accordance with the recognition of the rights of citizens, Yugoslav policy is extremely tolerant towards external migration. This stand seems to have changed somewhat with time, above all because of the volume of temporary emigration, and could be qualified as 'concerned permissiveness'. Over the last few. years there have been endeavors to stem the flow, primarily by channelling it through organized labor exchanges, by averting the departure of persons with deficitary skills and to stimulate temporary migration from the less—developed regions. For a long time internal migration was treated as the individual's personal affair and, basically, as a labor exchange problem. By the 1960's however, the need came to be felt for a more organized balancing out of regional labor surpluses and labor demands. From then on the role played by republican and provincial employment institutions has grown with the increasing elaboration of positive measures in the sense of job training, labor exchange, and the. stimulation of migration. A niore complete policy towards internal migration was formulated in the 1971—1975 Plan, which emphasizes that internal migration should be regulated by agreements between the republics and provinces. This sound policy is expected to be supplemented by additional measures that more fully and suitably regulate the treatment of migrants as well as the rights and obligations of both the emigratory and the immigratory regions. An important component of internal migration has been the growth of thé towns and cities and the urban population, especially since Yugoslavia was a

83 ' predominantly rural country earlier. The primary déterminants of urbanization were the federative system and the decentralization of political, economic and cultural affairs. The Yugoslav urbanization model is exceptionally decentralized because it has taken shape through the growth of the eight republican and provincial capitals and a large number of sub-regional centers. Not only has administration been very substantially decentralized, but also the foundation of new industries, schools and universities, scientific, health and other institutions has tended towards the formation of middle—sized and smaller centers that have acquired increasing importance in regional development. These circumstances encouraged the dispersion of urban settlement and the gradual evolution of small settlements into urban centers. But this did not entirely • preclude centralization and hyperconcentration of economic activity and population in certain republican capitals, because inherited comparative advantages and the contemporary policies of local governments reinforced centralizing tendencies. The favoring of direct production investment at the expense of housing construction had the immediate effect, up to the beginning of the 1960's of seriously slowing urbanization down. In the early 1960's almost a million workers were commuting daily to work outside their place of domicile. Even at the start of the 1970's the number of commuters was at roughly the same level, notwithstanding the considerable rise in urban population growth. This fact made urbanization even more decentralized, and allowed the gradual urbanization of certain aspects of rural settlements. This trend seems to have been stimulated by the system of the formation of income of local communities, and was buttressed by substantial advances in local transport and communications and the decentralization of commerce and services. Yugoslav development plans do not directly regulate the process of urbanizati- on, although the growth of urban settlements is considered an important component of development. However, the Permanent Conference of Towns and Cities and the system of regional and local urban planning institutions have played and play a significant part in the development and organization of cities. It is interesting to observe that there is wide regional variation in the percentage of urban population (ranging from 27% of the total population in Kosovo in 1971 to 49% in Vojvodina, in comparison with 39% on average for the whole country). Moreover, the degree of urbanization is not markedly correlated to level of economic development. But nevertheless it does seem that the differences in quality of urbanization are considerably bigger and that the basic reason for these differences is inuch more directly related to the level of development. Health, Education and Social Services

Throughout the postwar period Yugoslav social policies have been confronted with the demands of a socialist society for maximalization of effects in the fields of health, education and social services, and with the meager funds that the insufficiently developed economy could set aside for this purpose. This contradiction has constantly been present — at all times, and in its regional aspects — but with visible oscillations from the period of forced production investments to the subsequent emphasis on the standard of living. The principle of the socialization of all social services was adopted directly after the war and was instituted in the first postwar reforms. However, numerous

84 economic and personnel limitations hampered its implementation. In addition, the growing role of the republics and provinces led to perceptible nuances in evaluations of needs and capabilities, which influenced the development of the individual social services and created regional differences in their availability. The reduction in general and specific mortality, which has already been discussed, cannot be separated from the influence of health policies. On the one hand, the health service in general, and especially the network of health institutions, was developed, and on the other, the compass of the health insurance scheme was broadened. Immediately after the war there were only a little over 4000 doctors in the country and in 1949. after repair of war damage, around 50,000 hospital beds. By 1971 the number of doctors had soared to over 25,000 and the number of hospital beds to over 120.000. Thus, at the beginning of the 1970's, there was one doctor per 814 population and one bed per 170. These indexes only partially reveal the magnitude and direction of expansion of the material and personnel training programs, the promotion of medical research and the construction of the necessary health institutions. On the other side, compulsory health insurance was a direct factor in the growth of requests for medical services.. Immediately after the war, health insurance was limited to small segments of the population, for which no statistical data is available. In 1952 health insurance covered almost 4.4 million persons, or 26% of the total population, and twenty years later it encompassed over 14.5 million persons, or 70%. Relevant for the development of the demographic situation was the fact that health policies were aimed at constantly expanding health services in the critical moments tied to birth and death. At thé beginning of the 1970's almost 70% of all births took place in medical institutions, and over 65% of persons dying received treatment prior to death. The successes of the policy of intensifying and expanding health services are, in the final instance, diminished by two phenomena related to Yugoslav mortality characteristics. The first refers to the high share of infant mortality in total mortality and to the unfavorable etiology specific to both the developed and the undeveloped regions. The second is related to the great regional differences in the availability of health services. As a result of these differences the chances that a child will be born in a medical institution is three times lower in the least than in the most developed region, while the chances of being treated for a fatal disease are twice as low. Though not the most important determinants, these unquestionably affect regional demographic differences and. consequently, obviously call for additional correctives. Reform of the educational system, instituted directly after the end of the war and resumed at the beginning of the I9607s in essence had two primary objectives: to democratize education and adapt instruction to the requirements of a society and economy in process of development. In view of the conditions prevailing in the country, policy in advancing education placed stress on a number of key aspects v/hich can be briefly summarized as follows. The prolongation of compulsory education from four to eight years was a prerequisite to modernization of the entire educational system. This was closely related to the expansion of the primary school network and more complete coverage of the school-age population. From 1938/39 to 1971/72 the number, of schools surged from

85 9,000 to 14,000, with contemporary schools being considerably larger than the prewar, much better-equipped and with a higher number of highly-trained teaching staff. Over the same period, the number of pupils grew from 1.5 million to 2.9 million, with 94% of all children aged 7-10 years and 84% of those aged 11-14 years enrolled in school. In the lower grades the sex differential in enrollments is minimal but amounts to around ten percentage points in the higher grades. The effects of educational policies are slightly poorer in the less than in the more-developed regions both in terms of the percentage enrolled and the sex composition. As a result, in Bosnia—Hercegovina for example, special measures have been undertaken to raise the educational level of the population, and have been given high priority. The succeeding group of educational measures was directed towards modifica- tion of the structure of the school system. Accompanying the consolidation of secondary schools was rapid expansion of vocational schools for skilled workers and the • foundation of new universities through the creation of a new type of tertiary school offering 2—3 years of post-secondary education. In comparison with prewar levels, the number of secondary schools was doubled, while the number of pupils climbed from 213,000 to 720,000. In addition, numerous adult education centers were also opened with over 100,000 enrolled. The number of students at universities and higher schools of education rose from 17,000 to 283,000. From 1935 to 1939 a total of just under 15,000 students graduated, and from 1965 to 1969 nearly 148,000. With such expansion of the educational system, by 1971/72 there were almost 4 million persons, or 19% of the total population, enrolled in schools of all levels. In view of the ethnic composition of the population and the federative system, educational policy has encouraged the development of all kinds of schools in all republics and in all the tongues of the Yugoslav nations and national minorities. At the beginning of the 1970's in addition to Serbo-Croatian, Slovenian and Macedonian, primary and secondary instruction was conducted in the following tongues: Albanian, Bulgarian, Czech, Italian, Hungarian, Rumanian, Ruthenian, Slovakian and Turkish. There were over 315,000 pupils receiving instruction in these languages at primary schools and over 45,000 at secondary schools. Full-rank universities have been founded in all republican and provincial capitals as well as certain other large centers. Together with the five academies of science, national libraries, publishing houses and other scientific and cultural institutions, this is considered a very significant factor in the development of science, art and culture in all the republics and provinces and in all ethnic groups in Yugoslavia. The enduring effects, as well as the weaknesses, of such rapid expansion of education are clearly evident from the educational characteristics of the population. The percentage of illiterate adults shrank from 25% in 1953 to 15% in 1971, but with wide regional variation, ranging from 1.2% in Slovenia to 23% in Bosnia-Hercegovina and 32% in Kosovo. The proportion of the population over age 10 with less than three grades of primary education dropped from 429? to 24r/r in the same interval, and with only 4—7 grades from 46% to 42%. Impressive advances have been made at the other educational levels: the proportion of the population with complete primary education rose from 4% to 15%, and complete secondary education from 6.6% to 15.2%, while those finishing the highest level of education rose from 0.6% to 2.8%. As in other domains, here too regional differences are- great, but also very complex in terms of causes, and especially consequences. 86 In other fields of social welfare and protection immediately after the war Yugoslavia was faced with the necessity of rehabilitating the severe human sequelae of war. In this regard, special attention was devoted to war invalids, war orphans and families that had lost their breadwinner. Of course no policy or social assistance can erase the consequences of human losses. But the value of policies in this field lay in the endeavor to minimize the adverse social and economic effects and to help those afflicted to adapt to their new situation. As the significance of this domain of social policy gradually narrowed, with the decline in the numbers and change in the status of persons eligible for social welfare, another domain, old age insurance, gained in importance. The Yugoslav system of old age insurance compulsorily includes all employed persons and their dependents. Certain other categories, such as for example, tradesmen, and in some regions private farmers, are also covered by the scheme. Decentralized in character into republican and provincial insurance communities, the system guarantees certain common rights and benefits to all pension-beneficiaries in all parts of the country. Before the war, the old age pension scheme had ensured pensions only to civil servants and certain categories of private contributors. The scheme was extended to all categories of the employed only after the end of the war. Initially, the number of persons drawing on this form of social insurance was small but from 1952 to 1972 it rose from 350,000 to over 1.3 million. The absolute increase in the number of beneficiaries was also accompanied by a relative increase, since in 1952 there were 19.3 beneficiaries per 100 active insurant and almost 26.3 in 1972. Liberal policy in this respect was introduced in the mid-1960's when the option of early retirement was allowed under very attractive conditions. The significance of old age insurance for the well-being of the population has grown with the increase in employment, and promises to continue to grow in the future. Obviously the differential ageing of individual social groups of the population has a bearing on this domain of social policy. The problem of supporting elderly farm workers who are no longer able to work, yet have not contributed to the scheme, will become more acute with time.

Fertility and Family Planning

The Yugoslav attitude towards fertility and reproduction is far less defined and.' to a certain extent, more involved than the attitude towards other components of human development. On the one hand, the Constitution proclaims the value of the family as the primary social unit, and all issues pertaining to marriage, parenthood and birth have been placed under civil jurisdiction. The importance of motherhood and child-rearing is emphasized, professional medical assistance at birth is assured with the health insurance system, and provisions have been made for financial assistance to the family. On the other hand, the equality of the woman entails her emancipation and active participation in economic, social and political life. Humani/atinn of marital and parent-child relations have been keynotes in the new policy. Naturally, it has not been easy to satisfy these high demands in a backward environment even though they have enjoyed the active support of political and social organizations. Somewhat removed, but still directly related to these considerations has been the work of the Conference for the Social 87 ; Activity of Women in the liberalization of abortion regulations and the adoption of family planning as a policy. /'• The sensitive matter of reproduction has been affected by the situation in other areas, such as the slow development of child day-care facilities, the housing shortage, prolonged and expensive schooling, and employment conditions. Nor must we forget the formative influence of the socio-political climate and social norms on individual reproductive behavior. This intricate and insufficiently understood complex involves a large spectrum of factors ranging from the maximalization of material consumption and modernism, up to obsolete customs, primitive beliefs, and religious ethics. Distilling out the essence of policies that have a bearing on rcprodution and birth rate, it will be seen that the common denominator is the humanistic orientation of socialist society, much more than demographic intentions. All those measures which are usually considered to be of direct relevance to reproduction and fertility have in fact been the outcome of this orientation no matter whether they were concerned with the family regime, economic assistance to the family, the woman's status in society, health insurance, family planning or induced abortion. In evaluating postwar shifts in fertility il is important to recognize two circumstances. Firstly, all these measures had vary in i; effects on fertility, some stimulating, some depressing and yet others having no eft'eci either way. Judging from the available demographic data and everything else, the second group seems to have had the decisive influence in many parts of Yugoslavia. Secondly, the intensity of individual measures, for example, the availability of health services or the level of child endowments, was differentiated regionally and, moreover, acted in a highly regionally-differentiated environment. Herein, it would seem, lie the common roots of the regional differences in reproduction which, together with differences in levels of economic development, education, employment and others explains at least in broad outline, the diversity of the demographic situation. In the postwar period Yugoslavia, as a whole at least, has not been under the pressures of hypo or hyperfertility and therefore forced to pursue particular policies. Given this, the orientation towards humanitarian measures and towards the individual's over-riding influence on- reproduction was not out of place, and moreover was the more acceptable since it involved less social intervention. One of the crucial questions of reproduction, namely its regulation, was taken up in the mid 1950's when provisions for induced termination of pregnancy were liberalized. With time, socio-economic and personal indications for abortion in medical institutions have become foremost and decisive. The great increase in the number of legal abortions impelled official policy to start propagating the use of contraceptives by the early 1960's. Later, in 1969, the Federal Assembly promulgated a resolution on family planning that stresses the humanitarian and health values of conscious birth control and the importance of responsible parenthood in rearing the young generation. Family planning was thereby made the responsibility of health, social and other institutions, the intention being to promote the use of modern contraceptive methods through educational and health actions and to curb the high incidence of abortion. It is typical of Yugoslav circumstances, that a central role in the implementation of this policy was accorded the Federal Council for Family Planning, a non-governmental body with representation of all relevant factors.

88 The values of family planning were re-affirmed in the new 1974 Constitution of •Yugoslavia, It defines the right of parents to decide the size of their families as one of the fundamental rights of man, which can be denied only under considerations of health. In the framework of this general policy, regional policies and measures are of great significance, not only because of the role played by the republics and provinces in shaping the social and economic conditions of procreation, but also because of the demographic differences that exist. In some low-fertility regions, recent measures are directed towards strengthening economic support of reproduction and minimizing the adverse effects of high female employment on maternity. In certain high-fertility regions it is hoped to pare fertility down by the spread of educational and health services in family planning. Although these trends are of recent date, it seems safe to say that in Yugoslavia the common goal is humanitarian and rational reproduction, and this on the basis of moderate fertility, while spe'cific regional measures seek to either raise or lower fertility as circumstances dictate.

Concluding Remarks

Viewed as a whole, developmental policy in Yugoslavia has gradually given more and more attention to the population, not just because of its productive functions, but also in order to create more favorable demographic conditions for development as well as for individual well-being. Indisputably, economic development and social policies have influenced changes in the population, mainly favorably. The incidence and increasing importance of measures designed to affect individual demographic variables are undeniable even though they have not yet been rounded-out into a consistent whole. It is characteristic that these measures have primarily been motivated by the interests of the individual and by humanistic considerations. Demographic arguments seem to have appeared more as correctives rather than as the inspiration of such policies. Lately, voices have been heard in scientific circles calling for a more thorough population policy and for energetic intervention in places where it seems indispensable. To what extent these demands will influence the fashioning of future policies is very difficult to say. However, whether implicitly or explicitly, this policy will undoubtedly assume increasing importance, because embarkation on a more mature phase of economic and social development of Yugoslavia obviously entails devoting more and more attention to tin- population.

89 STATISTICAL SOURCES

Statistical Yearbooks of Yugoslavia, 1939,1934-35, and 1940 Federal Institute of Statistics. Belgrade, yearbooks of vital (from 1950 to 1955) and demographic statistics (from 1956 to 1972). Federal Institute of Statistics, Belgrade, Statistical Yearbooks of Yugoslavia, from 1964 to 1974. Federal Institute of Statistics. Belgrade, Popis stanovnistva od 1948. godine (Population Census of 1948) - 10 volumes of final findings. Federal Institute of Statistics, Belgrade. Popis stanovnistva od 1953. godine (Population Census of 1953) — 16 volumes of final findings. Federal Institute of Statistics. Belgrade, Popis stanovnistva od 1961. godine (Population Census of 1961) - 16 volumes of final findings. Federal Institute of Statistics. Belgrade. Popis stanovnistva od 1971. godine (Population Census of 1971 ) - Statisticki bilten No. 738. Federal Institute of Statistics, Belgiude. 1965, Jugoslavia 1945-1964 (Yugoslavia 1945-1964). Federal Institute of Statistics, Belgrade, 1973, Máterijalni i dnistveni razvoj SFRJugoslavijc 1947-1972 (Material and Social Development of SFR Yugoslavia. 1947-1972). Federal Institute of Statistics and the Center for Demographic Research. Belgrade. 1973, Projekcije stanovnistva Jugoslavije 1970-2000. godine (Projections of the Population of Yugoslavia. 1970-2000).

90 Table 1. Age and sex distibution of the Yugoslav population, 1921—1971

1921 1931 • 1948 . 1953 . 1961 . 1971 Age group 1 TOTAL M F. TOTAL M F. TOTAL M F. TOTAL M F. TOTAL M F. TOTAL M . F. TOTAL 12545000 6164898 6380102 14534000 7198956 7335044 15841566 7615023 . 8226543 16991449 8231936 8759513 18549291 9043424 9505867 20522972 10077282 10445690 0—4 1276942 653134 623808 2034247 1031518 1002729 1653135 842495 810640 2053951 1048742 1005209 1936778 990036 946742 1795512 918100 877412 5—9 1465207 750577 714630 1822887 931168 891719 1692511 861049 831462 1513025 772303 740722 2001022 1023109 977913 1831567 938166 893401 10—14 1600188 822285 777903 1150216 592683 557533 1804699 917845 886853 1607862 819256 788606 183292) 2 935684 897238 1873176 959039 914137 15—19 1345801 671885 673916 1346122 676609 669513 1729740 869288 860452 1761722 893159 868563 1378092 694489 683603 1984944 1013455 971489 20—24 1130145 544525 585620 1440639 741795 698844 1456020 670493' 785527 1727466 875211 852255 1581536 797132 784404 1754327 900219 854108 25—29 836794 392223 444571 . 1220988 610018 610970 1068269 488499 587770 1440119 666592 773527 1647499 824722 822777 1291218 649334 641884 30—34 820986 362164 458822 1039591 503354 536237 789248 361873 427375 1071126 485788 585338 1558374 766675 791699 1522805 761738 761017 I 35—39 756768 350825 405943 791548 376105 415443 1142412 545541 596871 755409 342059 413350 1245471 563086 682385 1601852 802573 799279 40—44 696537 320293 376244 756286 340821 415465 1004583 501580 503003 1090487 523141 567346 756956 342767 414189 1505700 738203 767497 45—49 541383 265092 276291 667558 314170 353388 896269 426580 469689 981485 483033 498452 914639 42294b 491693 1203386 540228 663158 50—54 543230 262672 280558' 595935 272233 323702 657309 298478 358831 844475 403917 440558 997879 483287 514592 722020 322606 399414 55—59 435089 220172 214917 457163 220941 236222 572881 245453 327428 630750 281056 349694 851009 409233 441776 848281 383319 464962 60—64 426921 210503 216418 427956 203124 224832 487081 211473 275608 497512 212030 285482 683497 310965 372532 881003 413884 467119 65—69 255726 132872 122854 316844 157936 158908 388033 165092 222941 422632 178355 244277 430401 184170 246231 683705 314997 368708 70—74 201373 99322 102051 236888 114489 122399 235447 103746 131701 293372 123193 170179 338191 136335 201856 482448 206209 276239 75 and ovci 208111 104510 103601 226744 110626 116118 263078 113060 150018 298784 123626 175158 377260 149960 227300 448749 169573 279176 Unknown 3799 1844 1955 2388 1366 1022 852 478 374 1272 475 797 7765 8828 8937 92279 45589 46690

Source: Simeunovié V. The Population of Yugoslavia and the Socialist Republics 1921—1961, Belgrade, Savezni zavod za statistiku and Final Results of the 1971 Population Census, Statistiöki bitten, N* 738.

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Table 3. Labor force of Yugoslavia by activity and economic status in 1971

Emplo- Own ^ Employ- Unpaid | Total ycos account crs y J~ workers workers c

TOTAL 88901) 4399 1980 32 1879 11 Industry 1575 1575 — — . — — Agriculture and fishing 3903 •221 1818 3 1860 1 Construction 398 393 3 1 1 0.1 Transport and Communications 323 307 14 0.5 0.4 0.1 Commerce and hotels and catering 524 506 11 4 3 0.1 Trades and crafts and productive and service 434 279 119 23 12 1 Others 1M4 1118 15 0,5 3 . 8

') Difference is accounted for by persons working temporarily abroad Source: The Material and Social Development of Yugoslavia 1947—1972, Savezni zavod za statistiku, Belgrade, 1973, p. 85

Os CS —

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— in •vT sG ÇG sO OS fN fN rt -a- O r~ OO — O fN ^- fN fN ro rr OO 6477 7 4847 7 625.6 8 SO • 3346 7

o 90 8 > _^ o fN -a- O m Os ,23 3 182 5

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in OO -a- oo o in fN r~- oo O CO 9° in in o sO r~ a ro ro r- äo foN fN OO O in Or-s SO in Os CN o fN OS in •» ^ ro a _Q ? ** 3; OS OO o so O s a _o •-a- r* os CO OS SO OS CO os ro oo i—• r^ 2 S o fN Ss • •«a- T3 0 O\ •* ON OS < — fN fN ro r- C •_ 3 TÍ- io in a o in e*

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Table 5. Total population of Yugoslavia by bocio-occupational category and economic activity in 1971.

Total Ec. active1 Dependants in in in per 100 '".i OOO's OOO's OOO's active

1. Total 20523 100 10131' 100' 10392 100 102 2. Private farmers1 6602 32.2 3680 36.4 2922 28.1 79 3. Farm workers 425 2.1 141 " 1.4 285 2.7 203 4. Miners 224 1.1 64 0.6 160 1.5 249 5. Production-process and related workers 4930 24.0 2000 19.7 2930 28.2 146 6. Proprietors- produo . tion craft shops 435 2.1 158 1.6 277 2.7 175 7. Sales, catering and service workers 1162 5.7 616 6.1 546 5.3 89 8. Proprietors* of ca- tering, commercial and trade services concerns 74 0.4 33 0.3 40 0.4 121 9. Personnel speciali- zed in protection service 451 2.2 148 1.5 304 2.9 205 10. Clerical and rela- ted workers ¡060 5.2 532 5.2 528 5.1 99 11. Managerial -personneI 236 1.1 92 0.9 144 1.4 156 12. Professional and technical workers 1148 5.6 656 6.5 492 4.7 75 13. Artists 49 0.2 24 0.2 25 0.2 104 14. Unknown 357 1.7 156 1.5 20! 1.9 129 15. Persons with in- come of their own 2208 10,8 1239 12.2 970 9.3 78 16. Supported bylegal person 30 0.1 ' 30 0.3 17. Persons temporarily employed abroad 1131 5.5 592 5.8 539 5.2 91

Source: The Material and Social Development of Yugoslavia 1947—1972, Savezni zavod za «tatistiku, Belgrade, 1973, p. 84 1) Inclusive persons with income of their own. 2) Inclusive unpaid family workers

Table 6. Labor force of Yugoslavia, the republics and provinces according to socio-occupational category and economic status in 1971.

Serbia Bosnia- Monte- Croa- Mace- Slove- SFRY Herce- negro tia donia govina nia Vojvo- Ko- Total Proper dina sovo Labor force in 000's 8890 1374 173 2016 630 837 3859 2703 833 323 a) by socio-occupation category in %i Private farmers1 41.4 44.2 40.8 34.4 40.2 22.6 48.4 52.1 35.8 49.9 Farm workers 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.7 2.5 1.8 1.2 0.6 3.3 1.1 Miners 0.7 1.5 0.6 0.4 0.7 1.2 0.6 0.6 0.1 1.3 Production-process and related workers 22.5 21.3 21.4 24.5 21.1 36.5 19.2 17.9 24.8 14.8 Proprietors1 production craft shops 1.8 1.3 1.4 1.6 2.7 1.6 1.9 1.7 2.3 2.5 Sales, Catering and Service workers 6.9 5.8 8.4 8.3 5.7 9.9 6.1 5.9 7.8 3.7 Proprietors1 of catering commercial 0.4 0.3 0.3 and trade services concerns 0.4 0.3 . 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.4 Personnel specialized in protection service 1.7 1.5 2.4 1.9 2.1 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.9 1.7 Clerical and related workers 6.0 5.0 6.4 6.6 6.0 7.8 5.6 5.5 6.5 4.1 Managerial personnel 1.0 0.9 1.4 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.0 1.0 1,1 0.7 Professional and technical workers 7.3 6.1 8.8 7.8 7.2 8.5 7.3 7.3 7.8 6.8 Artists 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 Unknown 1.8 1.0 2.6 1.5 2.2 1.2 2.2 1.7 2.1 6.4 Persons temporarily employed abroad 6.6 9.2 3.9 '9.6 7.9 5.4 4.3 3.7 5.5 6.5 b) by economic status in '/• Employees 49.9 44.8 53.4 53.6 48.7 69.6 44.6 41.8 55.4 39.6 Own account workers 22.3 22.0 24.2 21.0 21.8 15.1 24.6 . 23.4 26.4 29.4 Employers 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2 Unpaid family workers 21.1 23.6 18.2 15.1 21.3 9.1 26.1 30.7 12.1 24.2 Unknown 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Persons temporarily employed abroad 6.6 9.2 3.9 9.6 7.9 5.4 4.3 3.7 5.5 6.5

1) Inclusive unpaid family workers Source: The Material and Social Development of Yugoslavia 1947—1972, Savezni zavod za statistiku, Belgrade, 1973, p. 234

•* —« s r*5 rr>

o o fi i in m ¡s I mm 1 vO in »-4 •o o. oo m «-- in oo ?i m •o t—t in 1—1 in -H in s;

Os 00 1 oin oio^ m O \O O vO —• rr, H O

S m r- 1 O çj oo oo

1 to m m r- co 1 oo m CM I oo o o o^ m. ^^ OO 00 ¡2 2 •a 2 CA es 00 eo in OO OO oo »N

in o» »-< fB s fsj in tn in s s 2 in rr> t» f CO ë Iet 1

"| I il I Ï £ WÄ

Table 8. Skills structure of the employed in the sooial sector at end 1970, Yugoslavia, republics and provinces ' " (percentage)

Serbia

3 Prope r SFR Y Bosni a Herce - negr o Croa - ni a Vojvo - govin a Monte - Mace - doni a Slove - din a Ko - t— sov o

(In OOO's) (3851) (530) (78) (947) (262) (540) (1493) (989) (404) (101) Total (in.%) 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 High qualification 5.1 4.2 5.9 5,2 5.3 3.7 5.7 6.4 4.5 4.0 Higher „ 3.8 3.7 5.0 3.7 4.1 2.8 4.2 4.2 4.0 5.6 Secondary „ 14.2 13.6 15.9 13.7 15.0 12.7 15.1 15.3 13.5 19.0 Lower 7.9 7.5 6.2 7.8 8.8 8.1 8.0 7.8 8.0 92 Highly skilled 6.6 7.2 7.3 5.6 8.1 4.7 7.4 7.6 6.8 7.8 Skilled 25,2 25.8 24.8 25,5 r23,9 26.2 24,8 24.7 25.6 21.9 Semi-skilled 12.7 13.0 12.2 13.2 14.0 15.6 11.0 11.2 10.4 11.3 Unskilled 24.5 25.0 22.7 25.3 20.8 26.2 23.8 22,8 27.2 21.2

Source: Statistical Yearbook of Yugoslavia 1972., Savezni zavod za statistiku. Belgrade, 1972f Table 9. Female age-specific rates irj. 1972, Yugoslavia, republics and provinces

Livebirths per 1000women by age Serbia Age ¿ group • Sa o Prope r Bosnia - Herce - govin a ti a Monte - Mace - doni a Vojvo - din a SFR Y negr o Croa - C/3'c H ái 15—49 68,7 80.6 78,4 55.9 88.1 63,2 66.8 53.6 49,7 168.9 15—19 55.8 49,7 323 .! 52,5 45,7 51.2 65.7 69.9 58.3 59,8 20—24 167.4 182.2 171.6 148.7 186.S 158.5 167.4 151.6 142.5 279,9 25—29 130.1 148.7 153.8 107.1 177.0 114.6 125,2 933 90.1 306.4 30—34 71.8 93.4 101.9 54.9 97.7 67.1 64.3 40.7 38.2' 233,2 35—39 33.1 49.8 45.8 22.5 4S.I 31.3 28.8 14.0 13,6 1S3.0 400—44 10.3 17.8 15.9 5.6 155 92 9.1 3.4 • 3.Î 67.7 45—49 1.1 1.9 1.3 0.4 1,8 0.5 1.3 0.4 0,3 13.7

Source: Statistical Yearbook 1974, Yugoslavia. Published by the Saveznl zavod za statistiku, Belgrade

Table 10. — Specific mortality rates of the Yugoslav population

Deaths per 1000 population by age Serbia

Age .2 è * i à -j a "3 o groupe L S S "o I tn mx su il 3-3 c/3"c H >-a âl a) males Total 9.7 7.6 6.6 11.6 8.2 11.5 9.9 9.7 11.8 7.9 0 47.6 54.0 33.9 31,7 78.3 24,3 49.0 36,5 36.5 77.4 1—4 1.8 1.9 0.7 I.I 2.9 1,0 2.0 1.2 1.1 3.9 5—9 0.6 0.7 0.3 0,7 0,7 0,7 0,6 0.6 0.6 0.6 10—14 0.5 0.6 05 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0,5 0.6 0.6 15—19 0.9 0.9 0.7 l.l 0.7 1.3 0,9 1.0 0.9 0.7 20—24 1.5 1.7 0.9 1.8 1.2 2.0 1.4 1.3 1.7 I.I 25—29 1.8 1.7 1.3 2.1 1.2 2.3 1.6 1.5 2.0 1.4 30—34 2.1 2.4 1.6 2.4 1.5 2.7 1.9 1.8 2.4 1.4 35—39 2.9 3.1 2,8 3.6 1.7 4.1 2.5 2.3 2.9 2,5 40—44 4.5 4.9 3.6 5.5 3.1 ' 5.6 4.0 3.7 4.8 3.8 45—49 6.7 7.3 •4.5 7.7 5.2 7.7 6.1 5.7 7.8 4.9 50—54 10.0 11.3 8.7 11.5 7.9 . 12.2 8.9 8.2 10.7 9.0 55—59 16.7 17.5 13.7 18.9 13.8 17.5 15.7 14.9 18.0 14.4 60—64 25.3 26.9 15.7 29.5 20.1 27.7 23.3 22.6 26.1 19.9 65—69 41.4 44.6 23.6 • 44.4 34.5 47.1 39.4 37.8 45,4 34.2 70—74 64.6 69.9 40.9 70,9 50.7 71,5 61.7 612 67.4 49.1 ' 75—79 L123. 119.8 64.2 122.4 85.5 121,9 109,5 109.4 117.8 80.4 80—84 156.0 160.3 103.0 171.9 117.4 186.7 152,9 154.1 175.4 98.4 85 and over 223.6 194.1 145.3 244.2 212.7 261.4 225.1 223.9 2592 179.3

Source: Statistical Yearbook 1974, Yugoslavia. Savezpi zavod za • Statistiku, Belgrade Table 10. — Specific mortality rates of the Yugoslav population

Deaths per 1000 population by age Serbi a Age groupe tí c ^ § •¿•s p1 JS 5 0 || e/3 aX ?i, Ic cô'E b) females

Total 8.6 6.5 6.4 10.0 7.4 • 9.4 9.1 9.1 9.8 • 8.0 ü 45.0 46.5 32.5 25.1 82.8 18.7 49.6 32.6 29.1 01.1 1—4 1.7 2.0 1.4 0.8 2.7 0.7 1.9 1.0 0.7 4.4

5—9 0.4 •0,5 0.0 0.5 0.4 0,3 0.4 0,3 0.4 0.6 10—14 0.4 0.4 0,5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0,3 0.4 0.5

15—19 0.5 0.5 0.8 •0.6 0,4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 20—24 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.6 0,6 0,6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0,9 25—29 0.8 0.8 1.3 0.8. 0.9 0.6 . 0.8 0.9 • 0.6 • 1,2 30—34 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.0 • I.I 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.5 35—39 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.4 3,0 40—44 2.3 2.3 1.3 2.3 ' 2.1 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.3 3.3 45—49 3.6 3.9 4.1 3.7 3.6 3.2 • 3.5 '3.4 3.9 3.9 50—54 5.4 6.9 4.2 5.5 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0. 5.1 55—59 9.5 11.4 7.1 9.6 9,0 8.9 9.2 9.3 9.2 9.0 60—64 15,0 19.6 10,8 14,1 13,5 12.9 15.0 15.2 14.7 15.1 65—69 26.7 33.3 15.4 24.9 25.2 25.5 27.1 27.8 25.7 25.4 7íJ—74 47.0 52.9 29.9 46.6 44.5 41.1 48.6 51.7 43.3 41.3 75—79 88.4 - 97.2 62.1 88.2 83.0 82.2 90.4 94.7 85.7 70.5 •80—84 134.7 130.8 83.4 148.1 111,4 138.4 133.6 141.0 132.6 92,0 85 and over 201.5 146.9 144,3 221.4 215.3 215.8 204.8 201.1 238.0 ¡50.3

BIBLIOGRAPHY

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91 M a k s i m o v i c, B.: Prelazak poljoprivrednog stanovnistva u nepoljoprivredne delatnosti. (Triinsfer of the Agricultural Population to Non-Agricultural Activities) - Stanovnistvo, Belgrade. No. 1: 1964. M i h a.j 1 o v i c, K., and E. Berk o. vie: Razvoj i zivotni standard regiona Jugoslavije (Development and Living Standards of the Regions of Yugoslavia) - Belgrade, 1970. M i k i c, F.: Vitalne snage naseg naroda (The Vital Strengths of Our People) - Pasprave jugoslovenske akademije znanosti i wnjetnosti, Zagreb, No. 5: 1955. Mladenovic, D.: Promené u ekonomskoj strukturi stanovnistva Jugoslavije posle drugog svetskog rata (Changes in the Economic Structure of the Yugoslav Population after the Second World War) in: Demografskisimpozijum, Ohrid, april 1973 (Demographic Symposium. <~>hrid. April 1973) - in press. Populaciona politika u Jugoslaviji (Population Policy in Yugoslavia),Nase teme, Zagreb, No 4.1974. p, 535-760 N j e g i c, R.: Prirodno kretanje stanovnistva Srbije od 1853-1954 (Natural Dynamics of the Population of Serbia from 1853-1954). - Belgrade: Serbian Office of Statistics, 1957. P e j a n o v i c, D.: Stanovnistvo Bosne i Hercegovine (The Population of Bosnia-Hercegovina) - Belgrade, 1955. O b r a d o y i c. S.: Stanovnistvo po rodnom kraju (Population by Place of Birth) in: Popis stanovnistva od 1948. godine, VI(Population Census of 1948, Vol. VI) - Belgrade: Federal Institute of Statistics, 1955. Obradovic, S., and I. G i n i c.: Stanovnistvo Narodne republike Srbije od 1834-1953 (Population of the People's Republic of Serbia from 1834-1953) - Belgrade: Serbian Office of Statistics. 1953. Rascvic M. Determinante fertiliteta stanovnistva u Jugoslaviji (Determinants of the. Fertility of the Population of Yugoslavia) - Belgrade: Center for Demographic Research, 1971. Sentie, M. NaSi gradanina privremenom radu u inostranstvu (Our Citizens TemporariK Working Abroad) -Stanovnistvo, No. 3-4. 1972. Belgrade. Sentie, M., and D. B r e z n i k: Projekcije migracija i aktivnogstanovnistva Jugoslavije do 1985. godine (Projections of Migration and the Working Population of Yugoslavia up to 1985) Stanovnistvo, Belgrade, No. 3-4: 1972, and No. 1-2: 1973. 5 i f re r, Z.: Razvitak stanovnistva Sbvenije u poslednjih 100 godina (Development of tru.1 Population of Slovenia in the Last 100 Years) - Stanovnistvo, Belgrade, No. 3: 1963. T a s i c, D.: Dugorocne promené starosne strukture stanovnistva Jugoslavije (Long-tertr Changes in the Age Composition of the Yugoslav Population) —Stanovnistvo, Beigrade. No. 1: I96.;. Tasic. D., D. Breznik, A. M ojie, Lj. Basta, P. Dujanovic. and D. J a- k o v 1 j e v i c: Smrtnost odojeadi u Jugoslaviji (Infant Mortality in Yugoslavia) — Belgrade: Centei for Demographic Research. 1965. Todorovic. G. and D. Breznik. Projekcije stanovnistva Jugoslavije po republikama, 1965-1986 (Projections of the Yugoslav Population by Republic, 1965-1986) - Stanovnistvo Belgrade, No. 1-2: 1968. • Todorovic. G. andA. Plavec. Projekcije stanovnistva Jugoslavije 1970-2000. godine (Projections of the Yugoslav Population, 1970—2000) — Stanovnistvo, Belgrade, N'o. 3—4: 1972 and 1-2: 1973. V o g e 1 n i k, D. Razvoj prebivalstva Slovenija zadnjih 200 let (Development of tlu- Population of Slovenia in the Last 200 Years) - Ekonomski Zbornik, Ljubljana, Vol. 7: 1965.

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93 Foreword 3 I. POPULATION GROWTH 3 I listorical Overview ! 8 Population Trends since the End of the 19th Century .... 10

II. COMPONENTS OF POPULATION GROWTH ],1 Long-term Changes in Fertility 14 Age-specific Female Fertility • . . . Legitimate and Illegitimate Fertility 17 Female Fertility according to Socio-economic and Educational Cha- racteristics 13 Mortality 20 Mortality by Age and Sex 21 Infant Mortality 23 Mortality according to Marital Status 25 Cause Mortality 25 Natural Increase of the Yugoslav Population .26 External Migration . 26

in. COMPOSITION OF THE YUGOSLAV POPULATION .... 29 Sex and Age Structure 29 Distribution by Marital Status 33 Educational Structure of the Population . 35 Nationality Structure of the Population 38 Households and Families . 40

IV. POPULATION DISTRIBUTION, INTERNAL MIGRATION AND THE AGRICULTURAL, NON-AGRICULTURAL, URBAN AND RURAL POPULATIONS 44 Population Distribution and Internal Migration Agricultural and Non-agricultural Population 48 Settlements, Rural and Urban Population 50

V. LABOR FORCE (ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE POPULATION) . . 56 Working-age Contingent of the Population 58 Total Population by Economic Activity Category 57

94 Activity Rates by Age 59 Sex and Age Structure of the Labor Force 61 Labor Force by Economic Sector 62 Status Composition of the Labor Force 63 Employment 63 Skills Structure of the Employed 66 Manpower Reserves 67

VI. PROJECTIONS OF THE YUGOSLAV POPULATION TO THE YEAR 2000 68 Total Population 68 Changes in the Age Composition and Age Contingents of. the Po- pulation 70 Labor Force Trends to 1985 72 Projections of the Agricultural and Non-Agricultural Labor Forces- 72 Projections of the Number and Size of Households ..... 73 Review of Changes in Other Population Distributions, Pattern of Settlement, etc 73

VII. SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND POLICY RELATED TO DEVELOPMENT AND POPULATION 75 The Historical Legacy in Brief 76 Postwar Reconstruction of the Society and Economy .... 78 Economic Growth and Structural Changes 79 Growth and Problems of Employment 80 Migration and Urbanization 82 Health, Education and Social Services 84 Fertility and Family Planning 87 Concluding Remarks 89 STATISTICAL SOURCES 90 BIBLIOGRAPHY 91

95 Stampa: Grafiöko preduzece »Radiäa Timotic«, Beograd, Jakáiéeva 9 — 1975.