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Cambridge Market Report Q3 2020

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Cambridge Market Report Q3 2020 CAMBRIDGE MARKET REPORT Q3 2020 he combination of a tumultuous economy, continued high rates of work from home, and lower levels of deal volume in the latter CLASS A Tparts of the summer meant that the greater Boston office market had a historically quiet third quarter of 2020. Little tenant activity Asking Rate vs. Direct Vacancy occurred as lingering uncertainty, simultaneously from an economic, political, and real estate perspective, caused most companies to Average Direct Asking Rate Vacancy postpone major office decisions to a later date. This lack of new $100.00 16.0% deals led to sharp levels of negative absorption, totaling 1.4 million 14.0% square feet for the greater Boston area, which sent vacancies above $80.00 12.0% 10% for the first time since 2016. No area of the metro was spared from the current climate as Boston, Cambridge, 128, and 495 all $60.00 10.0% 8.0% posted high levels of negative absorption for the second quarter in a row. $40.00 6.0% 4.0% The big story to emerge in the third quarter was the dramatic $20.00 rise in sublet space. Sublet availabilities increased by roughly 1.6 2.0% million square feet bringing the total to 6.5 million square feet $0.00 0.0% '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 metro-wide. Total sublet space on the market is now higher than Average Asking Rate Direct Vacancy (%) the Great Recession and is perhaps only surpassed by the 2001 Tech Wreck. As is the case in many parts of the country, Boston’s urban submarkets saw the steepest rises. In fact, approximately 80% of the sublet space added since the start of the pandemic has been either in the city of Boston or Cambridge. While the suburbs could be poised to benefit from an urban exodus, sublet and direct CLASS B space have also risen there. The extent that this sublet space glut Asking Rate vs. Direct Vacancy becomes a lingering issue for the market has yet to be determined. Under pressure from investors to cut costs, many tenants may be Average Direct only testing the sublet market for now. Therefore, much of this space Asking Rate Vacancy $80.00 16.0% could be quickly withdrawn from the market as the economy begins to improve. $70.00 14.0% $60.00 12.0% Landlords and tenants alike are in a wait-and-see mode. Despite $50.00 10.0% rising availabilities, landlords for the most part have kept asking rents the same from the previous quarter. Though some landlords $40.00 8.0% have reportedly lowered asking rents or increased concession $30.00 6.0% packages upon legitimate interest from a creditworthy tenant. From $20.00 4.0% a tenant perspective, any movement in rents or concessions hasn’t $10.00 2.0% been enough to drive them out in droves to make a deal now. Office $0.00 0.0% investment activity too has mirrored the wait-and-see approach '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 of rents. Only a handful of pure office buildings traded in Q3 with Average Asking Rate Direct Vacancy (%) essentially none occurring in Cambridge or Boston. The durability of rents and prices make sense given that the landlord pool is more institutionalized and long-term focused than it was in 2001 or 2008. Landlords don’t want to sell or drop rents in the current climate when hold periods can be for 10 years or more. LOOKING FORWARD $3.7B 35,500 The third quarter was a challenging one so it’s encouraging to note GREATER BOSTON JOBS ADDED that activity must pick up from here. For starters, the economy has VENTURE CAPITAL GREATER BOSTON begun to improve. Massachusetts added 291,000 jobs from April FUNDING (Q2 2020) (AUGUST 2020) to August 2020 helping to mend the losses early in the COVID-19 outbreak. Unemployment has begun to move in the right direction after spiking in Q2. The state unemployment rate decreased from a high of 17.7% in June to the current rate of 11.3%. Removing the uncertainty of a presidential election will also help provide more clarity about the future and perhaps boost business confidence. $3.3B 92 Finally, dozens of companies, many of them Boston-based, appear MASSACHUSETTS NIH MASSACHUSETTS to be making dramatic strides towards the development of a safe FUNDING (2020) COMPANIES CONDUCTING and effective COVID-19 vaccine. Time will tell when the treatment COVID-19 RELATED R&D will arrive and how effectively it will be distributed, but that should provide encouragement for a more active future. CLASS A & B OFFICE TRENDS CAMBRIDGE | Q3 2020 s was the case with Boston, sublet availabilities surged to record levels in Cambridge during the third quarter. ATotal sublet space has more than doubled since the start of the year and now represents 6.8% of total inventory, by far the largest of any area of greater Boston. Many of the high- tech occupiers in Cambridge are logically well adapted to remote work which is reflected in the recent rise in availability. DEAL HIGHLIGHTS Cambridge is one of the most desirable markets in the country and other indicators of office health remain solid. 1 MAIN STREET Absorption was only marginally negative and landlords have kept asking rents at the same high levels of Q2. Indicative of SUBMARKET East Cambridge the strength of life science post-COVID, biotech office users TENANT Black Diamond Therapeutics were the most active tenants. Black Diamond Therapeutics SIZE 25,500 SF and Vital Pharmaceuticals took 25,000 and 17,000 square feet respectively at 1 Main Street. Rumors have even circulated of an expansion by Google at Boston Properties Cambridge 1 MAIN STREET Center beyond the under construction 325 Main Street. SUBMARKET East Cambridge Google’s planned expansion comes in the face of the company keeping its employees remote until July 2021. This expansion TENANT Vital Pharmaceuticals is not only a positive indicator for Cambridge but does mean SIZE 17,100 SF companies can still take down large blocks of space even with employees primarily remote. Public transit usage has emerged as a casualty during 1000 MASS AVENUE COVID-19, a phenomenon that particularly impacts Cambridge. SUBMARKET Mid Cambridge According to Google mobility data, travel to public transit TENANT Tamr stations in Middlesex County is down 42% from February SIZE 16,400 SF 2020 levels. The Red Line, with its connections to Somerville, Boston, and Quincy, is crucial for moving people into offices in Cambridge. These new issues with the public transportation add to the frustrations with the Red Line that have been around for years. No one knows how these issues with public transit will pan out but it will certainly be harder to convince workers to return to their former offices upon reopening. AVERAGE ASKING RATE DIRECT VACANCY Average Vacancy Asking Rate Rate $100.00 20% $80.00 15% $60.00 10% $40.00 5% $20.00 0% '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 West Mid East West Mid East West Mid East CLASS A & B LAB TRENDS CAMBRIDGE | Q3 2020 espite broader economic uncertainty, Cambridge’s lab market continued its positive momentum into the Dsecond half of the year. Both East and Mid Cambridge held vacancies near zero and even registered some positive DEAL HIGHLIGHTS absorption despite the limited vacancy. Rents remained unaffected by the COVID-19 epidemic and even closed slightly up from where they were the previous quarter. With 250 WATER STREET almost no availabilities in existing inventory, new construction SUBMARKET East Cambridge experienced the largest share of activity. In the largest lease of TENANT Bristol-Myers Squibb the quarter, Bristol-Myers Squibb leased 360,000 square feet at 250 Water in the Cambridge Crossing development. Blue SIZE 360,000 SF Rock Therapeutics also took down 78,000 square feet at 238 Main Street bringing the project to 100% leased. 238 MAIN STREET Two of greater Boston’s largest leases this quarter resulted in SUBMARKET East Cambridge the only major sublet additions. Bristol-Myers Squibb listed 168,000 square feet of space at 100 Binney, the largest block TENANT Blue Rock Therapeutics of available lab space in Cambridge. Fresh off their 263,000 SIZE 73,000 SF square foot lease in the Seaport, CRISPR put another 91,000 square feet at 610 Main Street on the market. Given current lab activity and these assets’ prime location in Cambridge, 1 KENDALL SQ, BLDG 600-700 it wouldn’t be surprising to see these two spaces quickly SUBMARKET East Cambridge backfilled. TENANT Korro Bio Funding levels deserve to be watched. Venture capital SIZE 12,000 SF investment is the lifeblood for biotechnology as startups require heavy injections of cash in their initial phases. Early indications are that funding has more than held strong. 19 BLACKSTONE STREET Approximately $1.9 billion in VC funding was invested in SUBMARKET Mid Cambridge greater Boston biotechnology companies in the second quarter of 2020, the highest quarter on record. The IPO TENANT Lysosomal Therapeutics market has too remained healthy providing another capital SIZE 7,000 SF injection for local firms. More than seven Massachusetts- based biotechnology firms went public in the first half of 2020, totaling a third of all biotech IPO’s AVERAGE ASKING RATE DIRECT VACANCY Average Vacancy Asking Rate Rate $100.00 20% $80.00 15% $60.00 10% $40.00 5% $20.00 0% '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 West Mid East West Mid East West Mid East DEVELOPMENT CAMBRIDGE | Q3 2020 250 WATER STREET onstruction activity in Cambridge remained surprisingly high in the third quarter.
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