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Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability 12 Europe Coordinating Lead Authors: Joseph Alcamo (Germany), José M. Moreno (Spain), Béla Nováky (Hungary) Lead Authors: Marco Bindi (Italy), Roman Corobov (Moldova), Robert Devoy (Ireland), Christos Giannakopoulos (Greece), Eric Martin (France), Jørgen E. Olesen (Denmark), Anatoly Shvidenko (Russia) Contributing Authors: Miguel Araújo (Portugal), Abigail Bristow (UK), John de Ronde (The Netherlands), Sophie des Clers (UK), Andrew Dlugolecki (UK), Phil Graham (Sweden), Antoine Guisan (Switzerland), Erik Jeppesen (Denmark), Sari Kovats (UK), Petro Lakyda (Ukraine), John Sweeney (Ireland), Jelle van Minnen (The Netherlands) Review Editors: Seppo Kellomäki (Finland), Ivan Nijs (Belgium) This chapter should be cited as: Alcamo, J., J.M. Moreno, B. Nováky, M. Bindi, R. Corobov, R.J.N. Devoy, C. Giannakopoulos, E. Martin, J.E. Olesen, A. Shvidenko, 2007: Europe. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 541-580. Europe Chapter 12 Table of Contents .....................................................543 Executive summary 12.5 Adaptation: practices, options and ...........................................................559 constraints ........................................................544 12.1 Introduction 12.5.1 Water resources ..................................................559 12.1.1 Summary of knowledge from the Third 12.5.2 Coastal and marine systems...............................559 Assessment Report..............................................544 12.5.3 Mountains and sub-Arctic regions ......................559 ...................545 12.2 Current sensitivity/vulnerability 12.5.4 Forests, shrublands and grasslands ...................559 12.2.1 Climate factors and trends...................................545 12.5.5 Wetlands and aquatic ecosystems .....................560 12.2.2 Non-climate factors and trends ...........................545 12.5.6 Biodiversity..........................................................560 12.2.3 Current adaptation and adaptive capacity...........547 12.5.7 Agriculture and fisheries......................................560 ..................547 12.5.8 Energy and transport...........................................561 12.3 Assumptions about future trends 12.5.9 Tourism and recreation........................................561 12.3.1 Climate projections ..............................................547 12.5.10 Property insurance ..............................................561 12.3.2 Non-climate trends...............................................548 12.5.11 Human health ......................................................562 .......549 12.4 Key future impacts and vulnerabilities .........................................................562 12.4.1 Water resources ...................................................549 12.6 Case studies 12.6.1 Heatwave of 2003 ...............................................562 12.4.2 Coastal and marine systems................................550 12.6.2 Thermohaline circulation changes in the North 12.4.3 Mountains and sub-Arctic regions .......................551 Atlantic: possible impacts for Europe .................563 12.4.4 Forests, shrublands and grasslands ....................552 12.4.5 Wetlands and aquatic ecosystems ......................553 12.7 Conclusions: implications for sustainable ........................................................563 12.4.6 Biodiversity...........................................................553 development 12.4.7 Agriculture and fisheries.......................................554 ...564 12.8 Key uncertainties and research priorities 12.4.8 Energy and transport............................................556 ......................................................................566 12.4.9 Tourism and recreation.........................................556 References 12.4.10 Property insurance ...............................................557 12.4.11 Human health .......................................................557 542 Chapter 12 Europe Executive summary Water stress will increase, as well as the number of people living in river basins under high water stress (high confidence). Water stress will increase over central and southern Europe. The Many of the results reported here are based on a range of percentage area under high water stress is likely to increase from emissions scenarios extending up to the end of the 21st century 19% today to 35% by the 2070s, and the additional number of and assume no specific climate policies to mitigate greenhouse people affected by the 2070s is expected to be between 16 gas emissions. millions and 44 millions [12.4.1]. The most affected regions are southern Europe and some parts of central and eastern Europe, For the first time, wide ranging impacts of changes in where summer flows may be reduced by up to 80% [12.4.1]. current climate have been documented in Europe (very high The hydropower potential of Europe is expected to decline on confidence). average by 6% but by 20 to 50% around the Mediterranean by The warming trend and spatially variable changes in rainfall the 2070s [12.4.8.1]. have affected composition and functioning of both the cryosphere It is anticipated that Europe’s natural (eco)systems and (retreat of glaciers and extent of permafrost) as well as natural biodiversity will be substantially affected by climate change and managed ecosystems (lengthening of growing season, shift (very high confidence). The great majority of organisms and of species) [12.2.1]. Another example is the European heatwave ecosystems are likely to have difficulty in adapting to in 2003 which had major impacts on biophysical systems and climate change (high confidence). society [12.6.1]. The observed changes are consistent with projections of impacts due to climate change [12.4]. Sea-level rise is likely to cause an inland migration of beaches and the loss of up to 20% of coastal wetlands [12.4.2], reducing Climate-related hazards will mostly increase, although habitat availability for several species that breed or forage in changes will vary geographically (very high confidence). low-lying coastal areas [12.4.6]. Small glaciers will disappear Winter floods are likely to increase in maritime regions and flash and larger glaciers substantially shrink during the 21st century floods are likely to increase throughout Europe [12.4.1]. Coastal [12.4.3]. Many permafrost areas in the Arctic are projected to flooding related to increasing storminess and sea-level rise is disappear [12.4.5]. In the Mediterranean, many ephemeral likely to threaten up to 1.6 million additional people annually aquatic ecosystems are projected to disappear, and permanent [12.4.2]. Warmer, drier conditions will lead to more frequent and ones to shrink [12.4.5]. Recruitment and production of marine prolonged droughts, as well as to a longer fire season and fisheries in the North Atlantic are likely to increase [12.4.7.2]. increased fire risk, particularly in the Mediterranean region The northward expansion of forests is projected to reduce [12.3.1.2, 12.4.4.1]. During dry years, catastrophic fires are current tundra areas under some scenarios [12.4.4]. Mountain expected on drained peatlands in central Europe [12.4.5]. The plant communities face up to a 60% loss of species under high frequency of rock falls will increase due to destabilisation of emissions scenarios [12.4.3]. A large percentage of the European mountain walls by rising temperatures and melting of permafrost flora is likely to become vulnerable, endangered, or committed [12.4.3].Without adaptive measures, risks to health due to more to extinction by the end of this century [12.4.6]. Options for frequent heatwaves, particularly in central and southern Europe, adaptation are likely to be limited for many organisms and and flooding, and greater exposure to vector- and food-borne ecosystems. For example, limited dispersal is very likely to diseases are anticipated to increase [12.3.1.2, 12.6.1]. Some reduce the range of most reptiles and amphibians [12.4.6]. Low- impacts may be positive, as in reduced risk of extreme cold lying, geologically subsiding coasts are likely to be unable to events because of increasing winter temperatures. However, on adapt to sea-level rise [12.5.2]. There are no obvious climate balance, health risks are very likely to increase [12.4.11]. adaptation options for either tundra or alpine vegetation [12.5.3]. The adaptive capacity of ecosystems can be enhanced by Climate change is likely to magnify regional differences of reducing human stresses [12.5.3, 12.5.5]. New sites for conser- Europe’s natural resources and assets (very high confidence). vation may be needed because climate change is very likely to Climate scenarios indicate significant warming, greater in winter alter conditions of suitability for many species in current sites in the North and in summer in southern and central Europe [12.5.6]. [12.3.1]. Mean annual precipitation is projected to increase in Climate change is estimated to pose challenges to many the North and decrease in the South [12.3.1]. Crop suitability is European economic sectors and is expected to alter the likely to change throughout Europe, and crop productivity (all distribution of economic activity (high confidence). other factors remaining unchanged)
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