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ABSTRACT LONG, DANIEL ESLEY. System Excess Placement For ABSTRACT LONG, DANIEL ESLEY. System Excess Placement for Improving Lifecycle Value. (Under the direction of Dr. Scott Ferguson.) The objective of this research is understanding, modeling, and evaluating the use of strategic overdesign (excess) as a method for minimizing the cost of system change to maximize system lifecycle value. This research is necessary because the design and construction of modern complex engineered systems is costly, and these systems operate in a context that changes over time. Reducing (and ideally minimizing) the cost of executing system adaptations is therefore advantageous. Prior research provides guidance for how system changeability can be supported by encapsulating functionality within modules, but little research has been dedicated to optimal design variable (or component sizing) selection to support future system changes. The specific goal of this research is addressing the following question: What placement of reserve margin within a given architecture provides optimal flexibility to mitigate future uncertainty for a system? © Copyright 2020 by Daniel Long All Rights Reserved Strategic Excess Placement for Improving Lifecycle Value by Daniel Esley Long A dissertation submitted to the Graduate Faculty of North Carolina State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Aerospace Engineering Raleigh, North Carolina 2020 APPROVED BY: _______________________________ _______________________________ Dr. Scott Ferguson Dr. Julie Ivy Committee Chair _______________________________ _______________________________ Dr. Andre Mazzoleni Dr. Gregory Buckner BIOGRAPHY Daniel Long is a PhD candidate studying Aerospace Engineering at North Carolina State University. His research uses data science for studying how system changeability and value may be improved by including excess in the initially fielded system. Daniel received his B.S. in 2006 from North Carolina State University in Nuclear Engineering and his MS degree in Aerospace Engineering from North Carolina State University in 2014. Daniel has worked for Progress Energy as a Fuel Supply and Nuclear Core Design engineer and for NASA Langley as an intern in the Space Missions Analysis Branch. Daniel has also completed the International Space University’s Space Studies Program and a fellowship at The Data Incubator. ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The author would like to acknowledge support from the American Public Power Association as part of a Demonstration of Energy and Efficiency Developments Grant, the U.S. Department of Energy through the Cities Leading through Energy Analysis and Planning Award, and the Garrett Fellowship. I would like to thank and to express my most sincere gratitude to my adviser Dr. Scott Ferguson for his tireless effort in guiding my research, his help trimming and focusing drafts that were always far too long, and helping me grow as a researcher and engineer. I would not be where I am today without his help. I would also like to thank the member of my committee Dr. Gregory Buckner, Dr. Andre Mazzoleni, and Dr. Julie Ivy for both their insightful feedback on my research and for the roles they have played in teaching and guiding me throughout my academic career. I would like to thank my former and current fellow students in the System Design and Optimization Laboratory. You have each helped me during my time as a student by teaching, sharing, and supporting me when I needed it. Finally, I would not be where I am today without the patience, support, and love from friends, family, and pets. You all kept me going! I am especially for the support from my partner April Cash who has been patient and supportive when work hours grew long. Thank you all! iii TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES ...................................................................................................................... viii LIST OF FIGURES ....................................................................................................................... x Chapter 1: Introduction .............................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Motivation ................................................................................................................................ 1 1.2 The Phenomenon of Change Propagation................................................................................ 2 1.3 Design Margin and Excess....................................................................................................... 5 1.4 Research Plan Overview .......................................................................................................... 6 1.5 Dissertation Outline ................................................................................................................. 9 Chapter 2: Background ............................................................................................................. 10 2.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 10 2.2 Engineering Design Process and Engineering Change Context ............................................ 10 2.3 What is Flexibility? ................................................................................................................ 11 2.4 What design features add to system flexibility an dhow are those features measured? ........ 12 2.5 How can design options be compared to find a “best” one? .................................................. 15 2.6 Component-Level Change-Importance Metrics .................................................................... 17 2.6.1 Design for Variety................................................................................................... 17 2.6.2 Change Propagation Method................................................................................... 19 2.6.3 Change Propagation Index ...................................................................................... 23 2.7 Design Margin and Excess..................................................................................................... 25 2.8 Chapter Summary .................................................................................................................. 28 Chapter 3: Qualitative Excess Assessment of Two Historical Military Aircraft ................. 29 3.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 29 3.2 Method for Case Study .......................................................................................................... 30 3.3 The B-52 Stratofortress .......................................................................................................... 31 3.3.1 Historical Context ................................................................................................... 31 3.3.2 Lifecycle Analysis .................................................................................................. 33 3.3.2.1 Surface to Air Missiles (SAMs) ............................................................... 33 3.3.2.2 Change in Operational Altitude ............................................................... 33 3.3.2.3 Survivability Enhancements .................................................................... 34 3.3.2.4 Standoff Weapons .................................................................................... 35 3.3.2.5 Conventional Weapons Modifications ..................................................... 36 3.3.2.6 Modern Electronics Integration ............................................................... 37 3.3.3 B-52 Summary ........................................................................................................ 38 3.4 The F/A-18 Hornet ................................................................................................................. 38 3.4.1 Historical Context ................................................................................................... 38 3.4.2 Lifecycle Analysis .................................................................................................. 40 3.4.3 Symptoms of Insufficient Excess............................................................................ 42 3.4.3.1 Range/Payload ......................................................................................... 42 3.4.3.2 Internal System’s Growth ........................................................................ 44 3.4.3.3 Payload Recovery .................................................................................... 45 3.4.4 F/A-18 Summary .................................................................................................... 47 iv 3.5 Discussion .............................................................................................................................. 47 3.6 Chapter Summary .................................................................................................................. 51 Chapter 4: Excess in Gaming PCs ............................................................................................ 53 4.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 53 4.1.1 A Brief Discussion of Gaming Systems – Computers and Consoles ..................... 54 4.1.2 Chapter Outline ......................................................................................................
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