The Urban Sun Belt: an Overview
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The Urban Sun Belt: An Overview Photos by Daniel Weiss (top) and Carlos Alfonso (bottom) on Unsplash Building Better Cities Building Better Lives June 2020 Rice University Kinder Institute for Urban Research MS 208, 6100 Main St. Houston, Texas 77005 Telephone: 713-348-4132 kinder.rice.edu For more information, contact [email protected]. Copyright ©2020 by Rice University Kinder Institute for Urban Research. All rights reserved. Contributors: William Fulton, Shelly G. Hazle, Wendie Choudary, Stephen Sherman Suggested Citation: Fulton, William, Shelly G. Hazle, Wendie Choudary, Stephen Sherman, “The Urban Sun Belt: An Overview,” Report. Kinder Institute for Urban Research, Rice University. Houston, TX: Kinder Institute for Urban Research, 2020. DOI: doi.org/10.25611/08bz-kj50 TABLE OF CONTENTS Table of Contents 2 Executive Summary 3 Introduction 4 Defining the Sun Belt — and the Urban Sun Belt 4 The Sun Belt 4 The Urban Sun Belt 6 A Snapshot of The Urban Sun Belt 6 Younger and older 7 Increasing diversity 9 An expanding but unequal economy 12 Housing affordability 13 Auto-dependency 16 The Urban Sun Belt’s Challenges And Capacity To Respond 16 Capacity to Respond: Government 17 Capacity to Respond: Philanthropy 18 Conclusion 20 Appendix A The Urban Sun Belt: An Overview 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Executive Summary ost population growth in the United States now ! Poverty appears to be growing faster in large Mtakes place in the Sun Belt, and most of the Sun Sun Belt metros. Belt’s population growth occurs in large metropolitan ! While large Sun Belt metros have a reputation for areas across the Southern Tier of the nation. housing affordability, that reputation appears to be in Unfortunately, much of American urban policy is crafted — danger. Homeownership rates are on the decline and and, indeed, much urban policy research is conducted — these metros have a high percentage of households with traditional Northeastern and Midwestern cities in mind. that are housing cost-burdened. The purpose of this white paper is to describe the nature ! Because they are more auto-dependent, large Sun of large Sun Belt metropolitan areas and highlight the dif- Belt metros have higher transportation costs and ferences between these metros and metros in other parts more pedestrian deaths. These metros have invested of the country. Through this research, we hope to begin a heavily in public transit in recent decades but, on a conversation about how large Sun Belt metropolitan areas per capita basis, their ridership remains relatively low might begin to tackle the urban policy challenges particu- compared to other parts of the nation. lar to them. Education is another major policy issue in large metropol- Therefore, this paper will focus most of its attention on itan areas in the U.S., but education is beyond the scope of larger metropolitan areas in the Sun Belt as defined by the this short white paper. Nevertheless, we are mindful that Kinder Institute (all areas in the continental United States educational performance and attainment are related to south of the 36°30’ line.) In particular, this paper focuses many of the topics discussed in this paper. on the 22 metropolitan statistical areas in the Sun Belt Overall, the combination of growing income inequality, with a population of 1 million people or more. Together, rising housing costs, segregation and the automobile-cen- these 22 metropolitan areas accounted for almost half of tric nature of Sun Belt cities creates an interconnected set all population growth in the entire United States between of challenges that would be difficult for any city or met- 2010 and 2016. ropolitan area to deal with. The fact that these challenges These large Sun Belt metropolitan areas face a unique set are occurring in large, young, fast-growing metros makes of urban challenges, especially when compared to their the challenge doubly difficult. counterparts in other parts of the country. These chal- Traditionally, social, economic and urban planning prob- lenges include: lems such as those listed above are addressed at the city ! Large Sun Belt metropolitan areas are growing much and metropolitan level through two institutions: govern- faster than their counterparts elsewhere. ment and private philanthropy. But these two institu- tions are not as strong in the Sun Belt as they are in other ! These metro areas are adding more younger and parts of the country. Therefore, the Sun Belt may have to older residents than the rest of the nation. find new mechanisms — or new combinations of mecha- ! The economies of large Sun Belt metros are nisms — to address these problems. growing fast but job growth is increasing fastest in the high- and low-paying sectors. 2 Rice University Kinder Institute for Urban Research INTRODUCTION Introduction ost of the nation’s population growth now takes household finances. The low-income population is growing Mplace in the Sun Belt, and most of the Sun Belt’s faster in these Sun Belt cities than elsewhere. Low-income population growth occurs in large metropolitan areas neighborhoods in the Sun Belt often are located in inconve- across the Southern Tier of the United States. nient places far from jobs and hard to serve with transit. But large Sun Belt cities are different than other cities Unfortunately, much of American urban policy is crafted — across the country. They are newer, more auto-oriented, and, indeed, much urban policy research is conducted — more diverse and both older and younger at the same with traditional Northeastern and Midwestern cities in time. They are economically dynamic in different ways mind. At the same time, in most parts of the Sun Belt, than the rest of the country — shedding manufacturing neither the local and state governments nor local philan- jobs at a slower rate than the Rust Belt while adding both thropies and nonprofits have the capacity to tackle these high-paying and low-paying service jobs at a faster rate. issues alone. Increasingly, these large Sun Belt metros have common- The purpose of this white paper is to describe the nature alities that set them apart from the rest of the country’s of large Sun Belt metropolitan areas and highlight the dif- metro areas. They are more demographically diverse than ferences between these metros and metros in other parts metros in other parts of the country, although the rest of the country. Through this research, we hope to begin a of the country is beginning to catch up. After decades of conversation about how large Sun Belt metropolitan areas growth, housing is becoming less affordable and, because might begin to tackle the urban policy challenges specific of auto-oriented sprawl, the need to own a car is straining to them. Photo by Elijah Mears on Unsplash The Urban Sun Belt: An Overview 3 DEFINING THE SUN BELT — AND THE URBAN SUN BELT Defining the Sun Belt — and the Urban Sun Belt The Sun Belt FIGURE 2 Kinder Institute definition Over the past 50 years, there has been much conversation of Sun Belt, using 36°30’ line about the Sun Belt region — its rapid population growth, economic expansion and increasing political importance all have been discussed at length. Companies across the region have included “Sun Belt” in their name, journalists routinely use the term, even an NCAA athletic conference is its namesake. Yet there is no clear consensus on the definition of the geographical boundaries of the Sun Belt. Political analyst Kevin Phillips coined the term “Sun Belt” in his book The Emerging Republican Majority, which was published in 1969. The book discussed the wave of people moving from decaying Northern industrial cities (the “Rust Belt”) to the “oil, military, aerospace and retirement coun- try stretching from Florida to California” (the “Sun Belt”). While the map below shows the area typically included in the Sun Belt, the boundaries vary. Specifically, the north- After considering the commonly accepted geographical ern boundary differs among definitions. boundaries, the Kinder Institute has decided to apply the definition of the Sun Belt that uses the 36°30’ parallel as the northern border. Under this definition, 15 states make up the Sun Belt, including Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, FIGURE 1 Historic U.S. Sun Belt California, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee and Texas. The Urban Sun Belt Most parts of the Sun Belt are growing fast. But in terms of raw growth, the large metropolitan areas in the Sun Belt are experiencing more significant growth and also have a more complicated set of urban problems. Small metro areas such as Fort Myers and Naples on Florida’s Gulf Coast often get headlines because their rate of growth (13–15% between 2010 and 2016) tend to lead the By User:Derfel73; User:Theshibboleth - File:Map_of_USA_highlighting_Sun_Belt.pngThis file was derived from: Blank US Map.svg, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=16163642 nation. However, the raw number of people being added 4 Rice University Kinder Institute for Urban Research DEFINING THE SUN BELT — AND THE URBAN SUN BELT to the population in such locations is dwarfed by the raw FIGURE 3 U.S. metros with more than population growth in larger metros. 1 million people For example, between 2010 and 2016, the raw population growth for metropolitan Orlando was twice the total for Fort Myers and Naples combined. Dallas and Houston — the fastest-growing metro areas in the nation in raw num- bers — each added more than four times as many residents as Fort Myers and Naples combined. The small metros may be growing rapidly in percentage terms but the scale of growth in the large metros is enormous by comparison. Therefore, this paper will focus most of its attention on larger metropolitan areas in the Sun Belt — in particular, the 22 metropolitan statistical areas in the Sun Belt with a population of 1 million people or more.1 Together, these 22 metro areas accounted for almost half Source: 2012–2016 American Community Survey of all population growth in the entire U.S.