THE FROSTBELT-SUNBELT CONTROVERSY by Timothy G
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THE UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA VOL. 57, NO.8 THE FROSTBELT-SUNBELT CONTROVERSY By Timothy G. O'Rourke Mr. O'Rourke is a research associate on the staffo/the of newer Sunbelt cities was part of a natural "Frostbelt" will embrace the District of Institute of Government. and irreversible dynamic. Therefore, the Columbia and the sixteen states in the New I n the mid-1970s, a spate of articles in federal government should eschew massive England, Mideast, and Great Lakes regions, newspapers and magazines such as the New expenditures to revitalize declining areas as displayed on the map. and instead should assist unemployed or York Times, Time, and Business Week PATTERNS OF REGIONAL GROWTH signaled the nation's seemingly instanta underemployed persons in those areas in neous recognition of the "Sunbelt acquiring new skills and in moving to places The dramatic economic expansion that phenomenon"-the dramatic growth in the where jobs are available. The Commission's has occurred in the Sunbelt states in recent economies of southern and southwestern stated strategy of substituting "people decades is easily documented. 2 The Sunbelt's states during the 1960s and early 1970s. The oriented" progranls for "place-oriented" share of the nation's nonagricultural em apparent prospects of continued economic ones carried the clear implication that ployment rose from less than 23 percent in boom in the Sunbelt and economic retrench federal policies should accommodate-not 1950 to about 27 percent in 1970 to nearly 31 ment in the states of the Northeast and resist-the decline of the economies of percent in 1980. In absolute terms, nonagri Midwest-or Frostbelt-touched off debate Frostbelt cities. cultural employment in the Sunbelt-and in over the inevitability ofthese projections and Not surprisingly, Frostbelt politicians Virginia in particular-doubled between the proper response of governmental policy, reacted harshly to these recommendations. 1960 and 1980. The Sunbelt accounted for especially at the federal level, to uneven They have been equally critical of the two-fifths of the national growth in nonagri regional growth. Reagan Administration's plans to trim cultural employment during that twenty Events of the past few months have federal spending for programs such as mass year period. Similarly, the region's propor served to intensify public discussion of transit and urban development that particu tion of manufacturing employment trends in regional growth and their policy larly benefit older Frostbelt cities and, at the increased from 18 percent in 1950 to over 25 implications. Recent release of the 1980 same time, greatly to expand defense percent in 1970 and to 29 percent in 1980. Census data that will govern apportionment expenditures that flow disproportionately to From 1950 to 1970 the Sunbelt's share ofthe of the U.S. House of Representatives after southern and western states. nation's population hovered around 30 1982 provided formal confirmation of the In light of the renewed attention being percent, but by 1980 it had approached 33 given to regional issues, this news letter sharp increases in population that had taken percent. Net migration alone added over 4.8 I place in many southern and western states reviews current trends in economic growth in million people to the population of the since 1970, alongside negligible gains of various regions of the nation, briefly Sunbelt from 1970 to 1979. Per capita population in northeastern and midwestern considers the factors accounting for those income in the Sunbelt, historically the states. For instance, the Sunbelt states of trends, and examines the role of federal nation's poorest region, has risen in conjunc Florida and Texas, from 1970 to 1980, grew policy in influencing growth within regions. tion with the gains in employment. Per in population by 43.4 percent and 27.1 The analysis then considers the question of capita income in the Southeast increased percent and will gain four and three House whether regional differences in political and from 68 percent of the national average in seats, respectively. The combined popula social culture, rather than federal policy, 1950 to 87 percent in 1978; in the Southwest, tion of the Frostbelt states of New York, account more for the prosperity of the per capita income expanded from 87 percent Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Illinois, on the Sunbelt and the decline ofthe Frostbelt. The of the national average in 1950 to 96 percent other hand, declined by about .3 percent, news letter concludes with a discussion of in 1978. Virginia's per capita income, 82 and these states will lose a total of eleven future developments in the politics of percent of the national average in 1950, seats in the House. l regional growth and the possible directions reached 98 percent in 1978. A second development fanning the of federal policy with regard to regions. Frostbelt-Sunbelt controversy was the De Although this account does not ignore cember 1980 release of the Report of the population and economic trends in the states 2 Data in this section were taken from U.S. Advisory Commis sion on Intergovernmental Relations (hereafter ACIR), Regional President's Commission for a National of the Plains, Rocky Mountain, and Far West regions-as shown on the accompany Growth: Historic Perspective (1980); Jacqueline Mazza and Bill Agenda for the Eighties. In the Commis Hogan, The State of the Region 1981: Economic Trends in the sion's view, the "relative decline" of older ing map-the focus of the analysis is the Northeast and Midwest (Washington, D.C.: Northeast-Midwest Frostbelt cities and the concomitant growth disparity in patterns of growth between the Institute, 1981); U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Sunbelt and Frostbelt regions. In this Economic Analysis, "Regional and State Projections of Incoille, context, "Sunbelt" will refer to the sixteen Employment, and Population to the Year 2000," 60 Survey of I Census data for 1980 are reported in Andy Murray, "Redistrict Current Business 44-55 (November 1980); and various publications ing Still Plagued by Confusion," 39 Congressional Quarterly states, including Virginia, in the Southeast of the U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Bureau of Public Roads Weekly Report 71 (January 10, 1981). and Southwest regions depicted on the map. and Federal Highway Administration. INSTITUTE OF GOVERNMENT / UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA / CHARLOTTESVILLE / APRIL 1981 Economic and population trends in the Frostbelt, on the other hand, have been far less positive than those in the Sunbelt. The Frostbelt's share of the nation's nonagricul tural employment declined from more than 57 percent in 1950 to less than 44 percent in 1980. Manufacturing employment in the Frostbelt, as a proportion of the national total, dropped from 68 percent in 1950 to less than 50 percent in 1980. In addition, the number of manufacturing jobs in the Frostbelt actually declined by more than 960,000 during the 1970s. The Frostbelt's share of the nation's population fell from 49 percent in 1950 to less than 43 percent in 1980; net migration out of the region amounted to nearly 3.5 million from 1970 to 1979. Per capita income in the Frostbelt, even though rising in terms ofactual dollars U.S. Department of Commerce. declined as a percent of the national averag~ Bureau of Economic Analysis from 1950 to 1978: in the New England states, from 107 percent in 1950 to 101 percent in 1978; in the Mideast region, from 117 to 105 percent; and in the Great Lakes FROSTBELT region, from III to 105 percent. The relative SUNBELT stagnation of the Frostbelt d and the -. crisp growth of the Sunbelt with respect to related to national defense but also in less than one. Indeed, the Northeast population, income, and employment are programs intended to create an infrastruc Midwest Institute, the research arm of the likely to continue over the next two decades ture for southern economic growth-water Frostbelt coalitions in Congress, has esti according to projections of the Bureau of projects, rural electricification, and highway mated that the eighteen coalition states "sent Economic Analysis of the U.S. Department construction. In 1960, for instance, the $165 billion more in taxes to Washington of Commerce. Sunbelt had 7,052 miles ofdivided four-lane than they got back in Federal spending" While all of these data clearly confirm the highways under the Federal Primary System 5 widely publicized contrast between Sunbelt from 1975 to 1979 alone. In contrast, the (which includes the Interstate System); by prosperity and Frostbelt atrophy, they do Sunbelt states, including Virginia, long have 1970 the number of miles had grown to not by themselves explain the causes of this enjoyed a favorable balance of funds, or a 21,607. The increase represented 44 percent ratio greater than one. From 1952 to 1979 divergence in regional fortunes. In a cogent of the national expansion of divided four however, the size of regional imbalance~ explanation of Sunbelt growth, Charles D. lane roads over the decade of the sixties and, tended to decline (though it should be noted Liner noted that the American economy in improving accessibility to markets within that data for 1979 and figures for prior years until well into the twentieth century was and outside the Sunbelt, contributed to the are only roughly comparable). The ratio for dominated by heavy industries, such as steel, accelerated pace of southern growth in the the Southeast dropped from 1.51 to 1.18 and that were dependent on close proximity to 1960s and 1970s. the ratio for the Mideast, excluding the raw materials and to rail and water outlets. District of Columbia, rose from .74 to .92. The requirements of these industries led to THE FEDERAL ROLE IN SUNBELT The Plains, Rocky Mountain, and Far West the concentration of economic activity and EXPANSION regions, while generally showing a favorable people in the urban centers ofthe Frostbelt.