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25 February 2015 | Vol. 6, № 6. From the Editor’s Desk Dear FDI supporters, Welcome to the Strategic Weekly We close this week’s edition in Africa. Analysis. First, we discuss the ambitious, and costly, plans to boost economic growth and This week’s edition opens with an analysis reduce inequalities in the South African of the need for India to upgrade its province of Gauteng, outlined by the economic credentials and military Premier in his State of the Province capabilities, as well as undertake an Address. overhaul at the Ministry of Defence, ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s We follow that with an examination of the visit to Beijing later this year. need for more transparent funding that also prioritises soil and land management, Next, we turn our attention to Indonesia, so that investment is directed to where it where we assess the difficulties is most needed, thus supporting long- confronting President Joko Widodo in his term food security in Africa. efforts to appoint a new police chief while appearing not to be beholden to former I trust you will enjoy this edition of the president and PDI-P party leader, Strategic Weekly Analysis. Megawati Soekarnoputri. Major General John Hartley AO (Retd) Looking to the Middle East, we explore Institute Director and CEO developments in the Saudi-Russian Future Directions International relationship, noting some recent progress but, also, continuing friction over the effect of low oil prices on the Russian economy. ***** India: Prime Minister Lacks Support from Ministry of Defence If India wants China to take it seriously, it has no alternative to upgrading its economic and military capacity quickly. Background The recent visit by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the eastern state of Arunachal Pradesh, which China claims as South Tibet, to take part in its anniversary celebrations of attaining statehood, brought about the expected condemnation from Beijing. It was, however, the degree of the anger demonstrated by Beijing that attracted the attention of China-India observers. Officials from China’s Foreign Ministry put their (Chinese) New Year holiday on hold to denounce Modi’s visit. The statement released by the Foreign Ministry claimed that China had never recognised ‘the so-called Arunachal Pradesh’. The Ministry Spokesperson, Hua Chunying, added that ‘the act of the Indian side is not conducive to properly resolving and controlling disputes between the two sides, nor in conformity with the general situation of growth of bilateral relations.’ This situation has arisen before Modi is due to visit Beijing, a visit that must occur before the end of May this year. Comment Vociferous protestations of this nature by China are hardly new. In fact, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army has taken to making its own statements, seemingly without the authorisation of the political class. One example of this took place during then US Defence Secretary Robert Gates’s visit to Beijing in January 2011. On another occasion, Chinese soldiers entered Indian-held territory, creating a stand-off with their Indian counterparts as Chinese President Xi Jinping was visiting New Delhi. If India wishes to be taken seriously by China, by the region and by countries further afield, Modi and his strategists will need to increase India’s economy and its military. Plans are being put in place, it would appear, to enhance the economy but Modi sorely lacks support from the Ministry of Defence (MoD). The Defence Minister, Manohar Parrikar, has inherited a more-or-less dysfunctional ministry and a less-than-reliable military research support structure. For example, Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), which is responsible for maintenance and platform support for India’s military aircraft, has been named by the Indian Air Force as a major reason for an average of only 60 per cent of the IAF’s fleet being operationally available. HAL, furthermore, was to have built the French Dassault Rafale fighter aircraft under licence as part of the Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft programme. This programme was tendered in 2007 and the Rafale was subsequently chosen as the fighter of choice in 2012. Negotiations between Dassault and the Ministry of Defence, however, have more or less stalled. Similarly, the indigenously designed and built Light Combat Aircraft (LCA, also known as the Tejas), was conceived in the mid-1980s but a prototype was only delivered to the IAF this year. Indian fighter pilots who tested it described it as grossly under-powered and lacking manoeuvrability. Modi described this as a prime example of the ‘chalta hai’ (casual, relaxed, or even lackadaisical) attitude that seems to pervade the MoD. Page 2 of 12 As if that were not trouble enough, recent media reports highlight the security leaks within several ministries, including the MoD. The police have reportedly arrested an MoD employee who not only stole documents from the ministry, but also made fake identification cards to enable at least one other person to enter several ministries at will. The Defence Minister, moreover, has not helped his own cause. Facing the stalled negotiations with Dassault, he opined that the MoD could always purchase more Sukhoi 30 MKI’s, India’s Russian-designed, mainstay fighter aircraft. He may have felt that this would encourage Dassault to make some concessions in their negotiations. While the French Defence Minister did visit India, nothing of any substance appears to have eventuated. On the other hand, the IAF’s international tender to source a manufacturer of medium transport aircraft to replace 56 obsolete Avro aircraft, saw only one bidder, a joint venture between Airbus Defence and Space and Tata Advanced Systems Limited, respond. While this poor response may not be directly attributable to the confusion caused by Defence Minister Parrikar’s statement, there is little doubt that did play a part in the outcome. A similar state of affairs exists in the case of the development of India’s Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA), which is being jointly developed by Russia’s Sukhoi Design Bureau. While the Sukhoi PAK-FA, the fighter aircraft on which the FGFA is based, is a single-seat fighter, India asked for a configuration for two pilots. When the two-seat model ran into some difficulty, the MoD changed its mind and agreed to accept at least some single-seat fighters. This closely echoes the case of the aircraft carrier that India decided to purchase from Russia, the Admiral Gorshkov, which was subsequently renamed INS Vikramaditya. Here, too, there were delays and major cost overruns due to changing Indian requirements. As stated earlier, Modi is due to visit Beijing by the end of May this year. If he wants India to be treated as an equal by China, he will need to demonstrate a change in the Indian economy or at least one that has had the groundwork prepared in order to enlarge it. He will also need to demonstrate that India has a professional and capable Ministry of Defence. While there is little, if any, doubt, about the professionalism of the Indian military itself, the Ministry’s ability to decide upon and procure the materiel required to support the Indian Air Force, Army and Navy leaves much to be desired. Unless there is a radical change in the professionalism of the Ministry, there is little hope of Modi being able to talk softly, secure in the knowledge that he carries a big stick, in Beijing. Lindsay Hughes Research Analyst Indian Ocean Research Programme ***** Page 3 of 12 Indonesia: A New Police Chief Candidate, a New Beginning for President Widodo By withdrawing Budi Gunawan as a nominee for the position of police chief, Joko Widodo is in a better position to salvage his public image, but significant hurdles, largely beyond his control, remain. Background Following weeks of uncertainty that re-ignited the feud between the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) and the Indonesian National Police (Polri), Comr. Gen. Budi Gunawan’s appointment as National Police Chief has been cancelled. In his place, President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo has nominated Polri’s Vice Chief, Comr. Gen. Badrodin Haiti. Prior to becoming Vice Chief, the new nominee was in charge of several provincial police forces. Before he can be officially inaugurated, however, his nomination has to be approved by the House of Representatives (DPR). Comment After being named a graft suspect, General Gunawan launched a lawsuit against the KPK, arguing that there were no grounds for this allegation. On 16 February, he was cleared by a court verdict but his nomination remained tainted and the president cancelled his appointment two days later. By withdrawing Gunawan’s candidature, after many delays and stalling tactics, Jokowi is now in a better position to restore flagging public confidence in his leadership ability. A number of hurdles need to be overcome for him to rebuild his public image, which has been dealt a severe blow by the protracted corruption case. Since he was announced as the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) presidential candidate, Jokowi has faced allegations of being a wayang, or puppet, of former president and PDI-P leader, Megawati Soekarnoputri. This perception gained further prominence with the nomination of Gunawan, as the General is a long-time associate of Megawati. The president’s withdrawal of General Gunawan’s nomination could suggest that he has always acted independently of his political benefactor, or is now beginning to do so. On the other hand, it could also be that Megawati has come to the realisation that pursuing the appointment of her chosen candidate would provoke widespread popular discontent and damage her long-term position. Either way, the party elder will likely have a bearing upon how the nomination process progresses.
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