ௐ 4 ഇ! ࢱ 181-95! 2018 ѐ/΋؞ཱི !ס έ៉઼ᅫࡁտ؞Ώ! ௐ 14 Taiwan International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 14, No. 4, pp. 181-95 Winter 2018

愛沙尼亞的生存之道*

ᗬѺ֐ ጯܻᘲ೻ࡁտٙઘି଱̂ڼ߆

ၡ ࢋ

਎Ăͽቁ઼ܲछщБĄд࢕ְރຑՒκֲࠎՐԩᏊܻᘲ೻۞Ξਕ Ăੵ˞ૻ̼ҋ֗۞઼֨˧ณ̝γĂ֭ͷ޺ᜈஎ̼ᄃΔ̂Ҙ߶̳ࡗ௡˯ ᖐ۞࢕ְЪүćѩγĂдགྷᑻ˯Ă݋ΐૻ׶ለ߷ᓑ༖۞གྷ෶ЪүĂТ ॡഴ͌၆઼ܻ۞གྷ෶ᄃਕ໚۞ֶᏥĄᔵ൒дጼர˯ĂຑՒκֲᏴፄԩ Ꮚܻᘲ೻Ă൒҃Ă̙გд̰߆ٕߏγϹᆸࢬĂܻᘲ೻࠰ࠎᇆᜩຑՒκ छ൴ण۞ࢦࢋЯ৵ĂЯѩĂтңᄃૻዐ઼ܻ࠹఍ĂߏຑՒκֲϠ઼ֲ ਎઼ރѩĂώ͛ўдଣ੅ຑՒκֲࢬ၆ܻᘲ೻ٺх۞ࢦࢋᙯᔣĄѣᝦ ЯᑕඉரĄώ͛ࢵАౘࢗຑՒκֲ༊݈۞൴۞פछϠх̝ᅫĂٙଳ Ăޢॡ۩۞ਔඛĂ̺ઙ΍ຑՒκֲᄃ઼ܻ۞።Ϋć൒ـणć׎ѨĂଂ࿅ ຑژ਎Ăซ˘Վ̶ރГ૟ॡม۞ᓂคٛаனдĂᑭෛຑՒκֲ۞઼щ Яᑕ̝྽Ą۞פՒκֲଳ

ᙯᔣෟĈ ຑՒκֲăຑՒκ઼ֲछщБጼரăԩᏊăຑՒκֲᄃܻᘲ೻

͹Ᏹ̝Ķ઼̈ϲ઼̝྽ķጯఙࡁົܛछण୕͛ିૄ઼ٺѐ 5 ͡ 27 ͟൴ܑ 2017 ٺቇܐώ͛ * ᛉĂଘ͛యϤү۰ҋ࢑Ąޙ੅ົĄᖰѩĂྕᇞຏᔁ׌ҜઠЩᆶߤ؎ࣶ۞޽ϒᄃᚗෳ ăௐ 4 ഇĞ2018/΋؞ཱིğס Įέ៉઼ᅫࡁտ؞Ώįௐ 14 182

壹、前言

ঔˬ઼̝˘1Ăˠ˾ࡗ 130 ༱ˠĄ1991 ѐ௲ᗓگຑՒκֲĞEstoniağࠎ Ă೭ҾВய͹ཌྷĂᔙШϔ͹Ą൒҃Ăࢬ၆А͇ޢᛂᓑĂࢦາޭೇ઼छ۞፾ϲ ᘲ೻۞ౚᇆ˭Ă͍ܻٺгநᒖဩĂГΐ˯Ă።Ϋ۞᏷ჰĂຑՒκֲؕ௣఍۞ Ѝၷ۞Ķૻ઼ေķĂֹ଀ຑՒ͟ـ׎ߏܻᘲ೻னЇᓁ௚೼ഢ˘ГૻአĂޭೇ ਎Ăͽቁ઼ܲछщБĂރκֲᇎᇋ׎઼छщБ̝఍ဩĄࠎՐԩᏊܻᘲ೻۞Ξਕ ຑՒκֲ᎕ໂ൴णᄃΔ̂Ҙ߶̳ࡗ௡ᖐĞNorth Atlantic Treaty OrganizationĂ ͽ˭ᖎჍΔࡗğ̈́ለ߷ᓑ༖ĞEuropean UnionĂͽ˭ᖎჍለ༖ğ۞ЪүᙯܼĄ ࢬ၆ᄮТ۞યᗟĂဩ̰̪ࡗѣ 8 ༱ˠ൑ืإ൒҃Ăд̰߆͞ࢬĂຑՒκֲ γĂܻᘲ೻࠰ࠎνΠຑՒٺ̰ٺϔྤॾĂͷкࠎܻᘲ೻୉ĄЯѩĂ̙გ̳ κ઼ֲछ൴ण۞ᙯᔣЯ৵ĂЯѩĂтңᄃܻᘲ೻࠹఍ĂߏຑՒκֲϠх۞ ਎઼छϠރѩĂώ͛ўдଣ੅ຑՒκֲࢬ၆ૻዐܻᘲ೻ٺࢦࢋᙯᔣĄѣᝦ ЯᑕඉரĄώ͛ࢵАౘࢗຑՒκֲ༊݈۞൴णć׎ѨĂ۞פх̝ᅫĂٙଳ ĂГ૟ॡม۞ᓂޢॡ۩۞ਔඛĂ̺ઙ΍ຑՒκֲᄃ઼ܻ۞።Ϋć൒ـଂ࿅ Яᑕ۞פຑՒκֲଳژ਎Ăซ˘Վ̶ރคٛаனдĂᑭෛຑՒκֲ۞઼щ ̝྽Ą

貳、愛沙尼亞的發展現況

ຑՒκֲВ׶઼ᖎჍຑՒκֲĂࢬ᎕ࠎ 45,339 π̳֧͞Ă׎гநҜཉĂ ˬঔگᘲ೻ᓑ֣2Ăݑତٛ௲ჯֲĂߏܻాڌᜋ៉Ă܆ᘲ۞ঔĂΔᘓگҘᓜ

ᘲ۞ঔˬ઼ϤΔҌݑĂ̶ҾߏຑՒκֲĂ׎Ѩߏٛ௲ჯֲĞࢵౌࠎ֧ΐğĂ౵ݑბ۞گ 1 ĞࢵౌߏჯႬ৸೻ğĄؤछߏϲ౜઼ ᛉĂ׌઼അಶᙝဩኘҿĂᚯ௡̍ү̈௡Ăҋ 1992 Ҍ 1995ۋຑՒκֲᄃ઼ܻ۞ᙝဩхѣ 2 ؠĂϏםؠĂҭߏྍםѐ 5 ͡ 18 ͟ࢵѨᘪཌᙝဩ 2005 ٺѐมĂᓝҖ࠹ᙯົᛉĄ׌઼֭ ؠĄֶፂ༊םѐ 2 ͡ 18 ͟Ăᗕ̖͞дం೻ࡊГѨᘪཌᙝဩ 2014 זᒔ଀઼ົ۞ԲࣞĄۡ Ăืਖ਼ϹЧҋ۞઼ົĂТՎซҖԲࣞ۞඀ԔĂຑՒκ઼ֲົޢؠᘪཌםᛉĂᙝဩםॡ۞ Ăޢᘲ೻઼ົТᇹԆј˘᝝඀Ԕܻޞѐ 11 ͡ 25 ͟Ԇј˘᝝۞඀ԔĂனϒඈ 2015 ٺ̏ ᗕ͞Гୁજ˭˘ล߱۞Բࣞ߹඀ĞMFAE, 2017ağĄ ຑՒκֲ۞Ϡх̝྽ 183

,ĞTallinnğ3ĄБ઼ˠ˾ᓁᇴ 1,315,944 ˠĞPõderڒ౵Δბ۞઼छĂࢵౌࠎ๰઼ 8ğĂଂ୉ཏ۞̶Ҷֽ࠻Ăˠᇴ౵к۞ߏຑՒκֲ୉ĂٙΚּͧࠎ :2016 68.7%ĂଵЩௐ˟۞୉ཏߏܻᘲ೻୉ĂٙΚ۞ͧࢦ྿ 24.8%Ăௐˬ݋ߏনҹ ᜋ୉ϺΚѣ 0.6%ĞCIA, 2017ğĄ܆ᜋ୉۞ 1.7%ĂௐαҜߏϨܻᘲ೻୉Ğ1%ğĂ নĞFinno-Ugricğᄬր۞˘͚Ă܆ٺᄬ֏ߏຑՒκֲᄬĂຑՒκֲᄬᛳ͞ء Ј͞ࢬĂܫି؟ຑՒκֲᄬ۞఼ϡᄬ֏ĄٺĂܻ҃ᄬߏ่Ѩܕᜋᄬ࠹܆ᄃ ˾ᘲ೻୉۞ˠܻٺߏૄ༛າି۞ྮᇇିࠁĂѩγĂϤି؟ຑՒκֲ۞͹ࢋ Ąି؟༛າି۞ૄٺϒିߏ่ѨڌࡗΚˠ˾ᓁᇴ۞α̶̝˘ĂЯѩĂ Ă׀ѐజᛂᓑࣘ 1940 זҶ፾ϲĂۡކ͟ ѐ 2 ͡ 24 1918 ٺຑՒκֲഅ প૟ྍ͟ࢎࠎຑՒκعၗĄЯѩĂຑՒκֲ߆ېѐ۞፾ϲ 22 ܕഅൺᇶჯ޺ ڱĂϲטࠎᛉົ̰ᅦטវڼĂТॡ˵ߏ઼ᇉ͟Ąྍ઼۞߆͟ه፾ϲࡔ۞ֲ ಏ˘઼ົĞຑՒκֲᄬჍࠎ RiigikoguğĂ઼ົᛉࣶ۞यѨВ۞טੰ˘፟ၹࠎ

۞˯ࢍ 101 यĂᛉࣶϤѐ႕ 18 ໐۞̳ϔۡତᏴᓝயϠĂ߆ᛨืᒔ଀ 5% ͽ ᏴைĂ͞ਕ̶଀ᛉࣶ۞यѨĂซˢ઼ົĂ҃ᛉࣶ۞ЇഇࠎαѐĄॲፂҋϤ ۞ छ۞ෞͧĂଂ 2004 Ҍ 2013 ѐĂྍ઼۞ϔ͹޽ᇾӮܲ޺д 1.92 Ҍ 1.96̝ ዮ׽۞ϔ͹ĞconsolidatedٺડมĞHabdank-Kolaczkowska, 2014: 215ğĂᛳ democracyğ઼छĞHabdank-Kolaczkowska, 2014: 21ğĄΩγĂдགྷᑻ͞ࢬĂ தࠎ 1.8%ĂЩϫ۞઼̰ϠயͨᗝĞGDPğࠎ 216 ᆆܜѐ၁ኳགྷᑻј 2016 8,260 ༱ለ̮ĂՏˠπӮ GDP ݋ߏ 16,479 ለ̮ĞStatistics Estonia, 2017ğĄ

參、歷史遺緒

͵ ડાૻᝋӵᓀ̚۞ϠхΫĄ18ٺаᜪຑՒκֲ۞።ΫĂΞᏜ˘ొ఍ ΃פ౼ӀĂЯ҃ޢ଀౵פĂ1721 ѐ઼ܻۋĂ઼ܻᄃ༄׏ᘕ൴̂Δ͞ጼܐࡔ ĂۡҌௐ˘Ѩ͵ࠧ̂ጼᘕ൴Ăڼᘲ۞ঔĂຑՒκֲ྾஍ࠎՒܻ௚گ༄׏Ⴭᜦ Ă઼ޓࡗ઼ੱᒉ۞Ւܻםٺϲ፾ϲ઼छ۞ݵ፟Ą༊ॡĂᛳޙຑՒκֲ̖΍ன

كᜋࢵౌᄿႬ֙ૄ 85 ̳֧Ă෼ᗓ֧ΐ 310 ̳֧Ă෼ᗓܻᘲ೻ௐ˟̂ݱξཐ܆෼ᗓڒ๰ 3 ೻ᇇ࣯Ⴌᇝ 375 ̳֧Ąع଀ಢ 350 ̳֧Ă෼ᗓ༄׏ࢵ ăௐ 4 ഇĞ2018/΋؞ཱིğס Įέ៉઼ᅫࡁտ؞Ώįௐ 14 184

ѐ 11 ͡ᘕ൴Вயࢭ׻Ă 1917 ٺϹጼ̝ᅫĂ઼ܻݒ઼ޓϒᄃТ༖઼۞ᇇຍԠ ѐጼୀĂ 1918 ٺϺ઼ޓĂᇇຍԠޢοઃጼĄ̝ކજᒜĂ઼ֹܻ࢝୊ӈ۞ొ̰ ૪ྋĂฟޢА઼ޓঔгડᝋ˧ҶԊ۞ܻᇇ׌̂گĄᇆᜩژᐌ̶̝૪ᗓ઼ޓ ѐ 2 ͡ 24 ͟፾ 1918 ٺϲϔ୉઼छ۞ᙱ଀፟ົĂຑՒκֲ྾ޙຑՒκֲୁ ϲޙ઼ĞTaagepera, 1993: 44ğĄ ።۞טؠຑՒκֲᙱ੟઼̂ङڦĂᛂᓑᄃৼოᇇ઼۞၆γᕖૺĂޢᐌ Ϋ૛׻Ąᔵ൒׌Ѩ͵ࠧ̂ጼ۞ม࿣ഇมĂຑՒκֲഅߏ፾ϲ۞઼छĂࠤͷ :ѐјࠎ઼ᅫᓑ༖ĞLeague of Nationsğ۞ϒёົ઼ࣶĞPlakans, 2011 1921 ٺ Ϛ୧ܬѐ 8 ͡ 23 ͟ᘪࢎĶᛂᇇ̢̙ 1939 ٺ308ğĄ൒҃Ăᛂᓑ׶ৼოᇇ઼ ࡗķ4Ă༊ॡᛂᓑᄃᇇ઼่̙ᘪཌྍ୧ࡗĂТॡᗕ͞ᘪࢎ૜ࡗĂ૜Ꮦထ̶Ч ᘲ۞ঔгડ۞гҜĂگĂᛂᓑࠎΐૻдޢҋ۞๕˧ቑಛĄಶдᛂᇇ૜ࡗᘪࢎ ӄ୧ࡗĻĞMutualםѐ 9 ͡ 28 ͟ᄃᛂᓑᘪࢎĺຑᛂ࠹̢ 1939 ٺ਎࢝ຑՒκֲ :ຑՒκֲ۞ೠଠĂՀΐկ׽ĞPlakans, 2011ٺAssistance PactğĂҋѩĂᛂᓑ၆ 338-39ğĄᄃѩТॡĂຑՒκֲ̯ధᛂᓑдྍ઼ዸ঻ 25,000 Щࡓ࢕ĄѩγĂ ѐ 7 ͡ 21 ͟ฟᛉĂົᛉഇมĂᛂᓑ 1940 ٺາᏴ΍۞ຑՒκ઼ֲົ݋ଵؠ ਎࢝Ăֹ࢝ྍ઼઼ົԸை఼࿅Ăͽΐ˧ڠд઼ົ̂ሁ̰γซዸ࢕ฤĂซҖ Тѐ۞ 8 ͡ 6ٺޢ༖В׶઼۞̶֗Ϧኛΐˢᛂᓑ۞ᛉ९Ąᛂᓑ౵੼ᛂჯऄᐌ ޠڱߏຑՒκֲᛂჯऄВ׶઼Ă྾Ԇ౯ٺ఼࿅ຑՒκֲ۞Ϧኛΐ༖९Ă͟ Ăᛂޢ඀ԔĂϒёјࠎᛂᓑ۞ΐ༖В׶઼ĞPlakans, 2011: 344ğĂҋѩ̝۞ ĄڼຑՒκֲणฟĶᛂჯऄ̼ķĞSovietizationğ۞௚ٺᓑ Ϛ୧ࡗķ۞ࡗؠĂ೭࢕ܬѐआ͇Ăৼოᇇ઼̙ᜪА݈Ķᛂᇇ̢̙ 1941 జৼოԽౝĂజৼოᇇ઼ҫᅳ۞ഇมĂຑڒซԽᛂᓑĂ1941 ѐ 8 ͡ 28 ͟๰ ,Ւκֲјࠎৼო࢕ฤ۞ᖏࢴᄃຆᆊ౻˧۞ֻᑕгĞNorgaard & Johannsen ۍ32ğĄ1944 ѐࡌ͇Ăᛂᓑࡓ࢕঱रаഈĂຑՒκֲГѨৼˢᛂᓑ۞ :1999 ზ૳ķ۞ޢဦĂღତֽ҃Ăੵ˞޺ᜈгଯҖᛂჯऄ̼۞߆ඉĂ֭णฟĶࡌ

ᄼপᘲ೼ĞJoachim֧ܜంࠃћ͈ĞV. M. Molotovğᄃᇇ઼γܜĺᛂᇇ୧ࡗĻܼϤᛂᓑγ 4 ం೻ࡊᘪࢎĄЯѩĂྍ୧ࡗϺჍࠎĺంࠃћ͈ů֧ᄼপᘲٺعRibbentropğĂ΃ܑᗕ͞߆ ೼୧ࡗĻĞMolotov-Ribbentrop PactğĄ ຑՒκֲ۞Ϡх̝྽ 185

ķĞdeportationğፋඥҖજĄΪࢋజᘃႷдৼოҫᅳഇมĂഅдᇇ઼ٸĶ߹ ፋඥĂצԝĂٕͽЇң͞ёࠎৼოᇇ઼̍ү۰Ăώˠ׶छˠ࠰ົዎڇ࢕ฤ ຑՒκֲˠĂࡗд 30,000 Ҍ 40,000۞ٸ߹צҌҘұӀֲĄፂҤზĂዎٸ߹ ˠĞNorgaard & Johannsen, 1999: 33ğĄ ྿αȈዶѐĂҌ 1980 ѐ΃ĂᛂᓑܜຑՒκֲ۞ໂᝋᑅ࢝Ăٺᛂᓑ߉Җ Вயᛨᓁ३੃͖͐ݵ͈ĞMakhail Gorbachevğ˯έଯҖĶ̳ฟّķĞGlasnostğ Ă̖ൾൾᗫཆ˞ᛂᓑ༊Ԋ၆ຑՒκֲ۞გଠĄдѩࡦഀ˭Ăྍ઼۞ޢ߆ඉ οޭೇ፾ϲĂࢦາаೇކ ѐ 8 ͡ 20 1991 ٺ൴णĂ౵௣܂ශޘ፾ϲྻજГ ͹ᝋ઼छ۞гҜĄღତ඾ĂᓑЪ઼д 1991 ѐ 9 ͡ 17 ఼͟࿅ຑՒκֲ۞ˢ ᅫᄅέĞRuutel, 2003: 183ğ5Ą઼ܔ९ĂຑՒκֲ྾јΑࢦົ

肆、愛沙尼亞的安全威脅

ГᓜĂࢦ߂઼઼̂ޓ਎Ăֽܼҋѣ඾ĶރຑՒκֲᄮࠎ׎઼छщБ۞ ਎ຑՒκֲщБ۞઼ރၷᚹഽ୕ķ۞઼छĞMole, 2012: 148ğĂ̙֏҃ಔĂ ᘲ೻ంᛳĄՀซ˘Վ҃֏ĂຑՒκֲᓁ௚Ι͍඿ᇇĞKersti KaljulaidğܻܧछĂ ቁгܑϯĂܻᘲ೻ߏځ઼࡚ර஽࿲ฎಡ૞ణॡĂצѐ 3 ͡ม6Ăତ 2017 ٺ ਎ĞWeymouth, 2017: 1ğĄރ਎Ă֭ͷຑՒκֲᇎᇋ׎ރ ଂ઼ᅫᙯܼ۞நኢֽ࠻ĂтТຑՒκֲ۞઼̈Ăдᝋ˧̙၆ඈ׶઼̂ ࢋՐ˭Ă၆઼̂۞߆ඉᏴีĂ૱జ݀ࢨдԩᏊĞbalancingğ׶ଞଂ۞ Ğbandwagoningğ׌۰̝มĄԩᏊߏ޽઼̈ᖣ඾ᆧૻώ֗۞၁˧Ăٕߏ౅ ᑅ˧ĄԩᏊ઼̂Ξͽ᜕ܲ̈۞ڇئ࿅ᓑ༖Ăྻϡγ˧ֽԩ١઼̂ࢋՐ઼̈ ᕘĂϺΞჯ޺઼̈၆γ߆ඉ۞ҋ͹ّĄଞଂ݋ܬ߆ĂͽᔖҺ઼̂۞̰۞઼ ਎۞઼छඕ༖Ăᖣѩֹ଀ྍ઼ֳѣՀк۞ᝋރߏ޽˘઼ᄃ౵ૻ஽ٕߏ౵׍ ώ֗۞ҖࠎĂͽᔖҺ׶઼̂۞८͕טᄃӀৈĄଞଂߏ઼̈ืಏ͞ࢬгࢨ˧

ѐΐˢѣĶಱ઼࣌ሄొķ̝Ⴭ۞གྷᑻЪүၱ൴ण௡ᖐĞOrganisation 2010 ٺͷĂຑՒκֲ֭ 5 ѐϒёјࠎ઼ᅫਕ໚ᓁཌ 2014 ٺfor Economic Co-operation and DevelopmentğĂͷ ĞInternational Energy Agencyğ۞ົ઼ࣶĄ ѐ 10 ͡ 10 ͟ಶЇĂᓁ௚Їഇࠎ̣ѐĄ 2016 ٺΙ͍඿ᇇᓁ௚ 6 ăௐ 4 ഇĞ2018/΋؞ཱིğס Įέ៉઼ᅫࡁտ؞Ώįௐ 14 186

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ᗝĂΚ΍˾ᓁᗝ۞ 75%ć҃ซ˾۞ొ̶ĂБѐซ˾۞ᇴᗝࠎ 131 ᆆለ̮Ăܛ ଂለ༖ซ˾۞ͧதĂՀ੼྿ 83%Ąࡶಶಏ˘઼छֽ࠻Ă౵͹ࢋ۞΍˾၆෪ ܆Ϻߏለ༖۞јࣶĂௐ˘Ҝߏ༄׏ĂΚຑՒκֲ΍˾ᓁᗝ۞ 19%Ă׎Ѩߏ ᜋĞ16%ğĂௐˬ݋ߏٛ௲ჯֲĞ10%ğĄГಶซ˾ֽ໚઼ֽ࠻ĂଵԔ݈ˬЩ ˾ᜋĂΚຑՒκֲซ܆۞˘ҡĂ࠰ࠎለ༖۞јࣶĂ̶ҾߏଵЩௐူٽ෶۞ ࠰Κ 9%Ă֭ؤᓁᗝ۞ͧࢦࠎ 14%Ăତᜈߏᇇ઼Ğ11%ğĂٛ௲ჯֲ׶ϲ౜ ᆸࢬĂຑՒκֲ࠹༊ֶᏥለٽЕௐˬĞTrade with Estonia, 2017ğĄੵ˞д෶ ѐ 1 ͡ 1 ͟ΐˢለ̮ડĂ 2011 ٺᏉᆸࢬĂᐌ඾ຑՒκֲܛ༖ξಞĂΩγд гޘᏉĂՀ̂඀ܛྍ઼۞ఱ။߆ඉϹϤለ༖۞̚δᅙҖ͹ጱĂຍᏜྍ઼۞ Ꮙˢለ༖Ą ѩγĂдਕ໚͞ࢬĂຑՒκֲԓ୕ᆧซᄃለ༖۞ЪүĂࢫҲ၆ం೻ࡊ Ξ႕֖ڵجĂࢱڵجਕ໚ֶᏥĂซ҃೩̿׎ਕ໚щБĄຑՒκֲᛃᖟࢱ۞ 10 ซ˾ਕ໚۞ֶᏥĂ࠹ٺгഴ͌၆ޘྍ઼ 70% ۞ਕ໚ᅮՐ ĂЯѩĂ࠹༊඀ ၆҃֏Ă೩̿˞ྍ઼۞ਕ໚щБĄҭߏ͇൒ঈีϫĂ݋ߏѺ̶̝Ѻ۞ԆБ ЈᏥଂܻᘲ೻ซ˾ĞIEA, 2013: 9ğĂᔵ൒͇൒ঈΪΚྍ઼ਕ໚ֻග௡Ъ۞ ୵̼ޙ൒ঈ۞ֶᏥĂለ༖ࡁᛉдຑՒκֲᚯ઼͇ܻٺ10%Ăҭࠎ˞ࢫҲ၆ ঔгડ઼छ၆گ൒ঈ۞ତќ৭ĂᖣϤଂ׎΁઼छซ˾୵̼͇൒ঈĂࢫҲ͇ ˧൒ঈ۞ֶᏥĞIEA, 2013: 9ğĄГ۰Ăд࿪˧͞ࢬĂຑՒκֲ۞࿪઼͇ܻٺ ၱܻᘲ೻̝࿪˧ր௚۞˘ᒖĂࠎ೩̿࿪˧ਕם፾ϲ઼छ઼ٺᏮਖ਼ր௚̪ᛳ ఢĂഇ୕ڱ໚۞щБĂຑՒκֲ᎕ໂԼචဩ̰۞࿪˧ૄᖂన߉ᄃ࿪˧࠹ᙯ ˢΔለ۞࿪˧ξಞĞSpruds, 2011: 37ğĄ׀ਕጐԣ ΞᄲߏБ˧͚޺ĄຑՒκڒ੫၆οጆ๫ႬଯજдщБᅳા۞ЪүĂ๰ οጆ๫Ⴌ൴णለ༖۞ВТٺҭ͚޺ለ༖۞ВТγϹᄃщБ߆ඉĂ֭၆ֲ̙ ᆧૻለ༖д࿰֨׶ଠგП፟۞ਕ˧Ăܑ྿ᙒТٺ˧щБᄃ֨኎߆ඉĂͷ࡭ ϲಞĞMDE, 2017a: 10ğĄ۞

ᑕĂΩγ۞ֻڵجਬͽ࿪˧ֻᑕࠎּĂຑՒκֲ൴࿪ٙᅮ۞፼फ़ֽ໚Ăѣ 85% ߏϤࢱ 10 15% ݋ߏ͇൒ঈᄃГϠਕ໚ĞIEA, 2013: 20ğĄ ăௐ 4 ഇĞ2018/΋؞ཱིğס Įέ៉઼ᅫࡁտ؞Ώįௐ 14 190

αăགྷᒉᄃܻᘲ೻۞ᙯܼ

ຑՒκֲᄃ઼ܻ۞ᙯܼĂࢵАĂ๰זдĺ઼щჩࢋĻ۞͛І˯ĂϺ೩ ၹͽ઼ܻ̈́ϔி჊ࡅ۞ޙࣧ݋۞ڼڱᄮࠎĂ઼ܻϔ͹۞ઉБ൴णăع߆ڒ ϲ̢Ӏ۞׌઼ᙯܼĂޙᆧซĂߏ௑ЪຑՒκֲ۞ӀৈĄຑՒκֲഇ୕ᄃ઼ܻ ͷຑՒκֲᄃ઼ܻᙯܼ۞൴णĂߏᄃ׌௡ᙯܼ۞ซणĂ֭Җ̙ेĂ̶Ҿ҃ ߏለ༖ᄃ઼ܻ۞ᗕᙝᙯܼĂͽ̈́Δࡗᄃ઼ܻ۞ᙯܼĞMDE, 2017a: 12ğĄ аᜪຑՒκֲᄃܻᘲ೻۞γϹᙯܼĂΞа໖Ҍ 1920 ѐ 2 ͡ 2 ͟ຑՒκ ؠĻĞTartu Peace TreatyğĂฟୁ׌઼࠹̢םᄃ༊ॡ۞ᛂܻᘪཌĺ๰ဦ׶πֲ ѐࠁዸం೻ࡊ۞ࢵ 1921 ٺĂ׌઼̢ࠁֹ̂ĂຑՒκֲޢٚᄮ፾ϲгҜĄᐌ ࠁޢˢᛂᓑ̝݈ĂА׀ѐజ 1940 זЇዸֹܻ̂ߏϞ༄೻ĞTonis VaresğĂۡ 1991 ٺЇ˛Ҝዸֹܻ̂ĞMFAE, 2017bğĄܻᘲ೻ٚᄮຑՒκֲГѨ፾ϲĂܼ ѐ 8 ͡ 24 ͟Ă҃׌઼γϹᙯܼ۞ޭೇĂ݋дТѐ۞ 10 ͡ 24 ͟ĂࢵҜዸܻ ,Ї઼३ĞMFAEז࿣Ğ1992ğѐ۞ 2 ͡ 4 ͟ᅍϹٺΙाĞJuri KahnğϺֹ̂ ĂࢵҜࠁЇܻ͞ٺ೻ĞArti Hilpusğ11ĄҌس2017bğĄனЇ۞ዸֹܻ̂ߏԓႬ Ї۞ॡมࠎ 1992 ѐזຑՒκֲ۞ֹ̂ߏপᘲහం͈ĞAleksander TrofimovğĂ ,଀ᘲ͈ĞAleksander PetrovğĞMFAEكĄ҃னЇ۞ዸຑՒκֲֹ̂ࠎ͟ 9 ͡ 9 2017bğ12Ą ᗝࠎ 7 ᆆ 7,350ܛĂ2016 ѐຑՒκֲ΍˾Ҍ઼ܻ۞ֽـٽ׌઼۞෶ٺᙯ ᗝߏ 7 ᆆ 4,760 ༱ለ̮ĂΚซ˾ᓁܛ۞˾༱ለ̮ĂΚ΍˾ᓁᗝ۞ 6.5%ćซ ᓁᗝ྿ 15 ᆆ 2,110 ༱ለ̮ĞΚͧ 6.0%ğĂٽᗝ۞ͧࢦ 5.5%ć׌࠹ΐᓁ۞෶ ҡଵҖၳĂЩЕௐ̱ćຑՒκֲ݋ֳѣ 2,590 ༱ለ̮۞ူٽдຑՒκֲ۞෶ मĞMFAE, 2017bğĄึٽ၆ܻ෶ д׌઼ᙝဩгડĂϫ݈ຑՒκֲᄃܻᘲ೻ϒдଯજĺ2014-20 ѐᙝဩ҃ Ъүࢍ൪ĻĞCross-border Cooperation Programme 2014-2020ğĂྍࢍ൪۞ϫᇾ ఢܛĄ࿰ࢍԸˢ۞ૄ˧ۋӄ׌઼ତᚓ۞ᙝဩгડ̝൴णĂ֭೩̿׎ᚮםߏ

ЇĄז͟ ѐ 11 ͡ 26 2015 ٺ೻ֹܼ̂سԓႬ 11 Їॡมࠎ 2015 ѐ 10 ͡ 15 ͟Ąז଀ᘲֹ͈̂۞ك 12 ຑՒκֲ۞Ϡх̝྽ 191

ᗝܼ 1,680 ༱ለ̮ğĂ҃ܛ໚ࠎለ༖Ğֽܛሀࠎ 3,420 ༱ለ̮Ă׎͹ࢋ۞ྤ ᘲ೻݋΍ྤ 840 ༱ለ̮ĞMFAE, 2017bğĄܻٺຑՒκֲԸˢ 900 ༱ለ̮ĂҌ ԼචĄၟҌ 2016ޞ൒҃ĂຑՒκֲᄃܻᘲ೻۞ᙯܼĂ̪хдᚨඕયᗟĂѣ ѐĂຑՒκֲ̪ѣ 83,918 ˠ֭Ϗ׍ѣ̳ϔྤॾĂ׎̚Ăкࠎܻᘲ೻୉13Ăտ ѐ௲ᗓᛂᓑ፾ϲ̝ॡĂ̳ϔ֗Њ่ග̟ 1940 1991 ٺຑՒκֲܐ׎ࣧЯĂܼ༊ Ăֹ଀ᇴͽ༱ࢍ۞ܻᘲ೻୉ཏĂϏਕ׍ѣཱྀ̳ޢѐᛂᓑҫᅳ݈۞ˠϔ̈́׎ ఢĂ఺ֱ൑̳ϔྤॾ۞ܻڱϔ֗ЊĂј˞൑̳ϔᝋ۞ˠĄֶ໰ຑՒκֲ۞ ଀ຑՒκֲ۞̳פˠ˾Ăυื఼࿅ຑՒκֲᄬ֏׶̳ϔྤॾ҂ྏĂ̖ਕཱྀ ϔ֗Њćٕߏ΁ࣇΞᏴፄаᕩϓ઼ĂϦኛјࠎܻᘲ೻ᓑ֣۞̳ϔĄҭ఺ֱ ଀̳ϔ֗Њ݈Ă̪׍ѣొ̶۞ԸைᝋĂҭ่݀ࢨણᄃг͞פᘲ೻ˠдϏܻ ણᄃБ઼ᆸ৺۞̂ᏴĂኜт઼ົ̂ᏴĄ൒҃Ă఺ཏϏ׍ڱᆸ৺۞ᏴᓝĂ൑ ޅҝ෹࿅ 5 ѐĂ̪Ξᑒ΁ࣇ۞̈اڱϔ֗Њ۞ˠ̀ĂΪࢋдຑՒκֲЪ̳ ѐ႕ 15 ໐݈೩΍ϦኛĞCIA, 2017ğĄޅϦኛຑՒκֲ۞઼ᚱĂҭυืд̈ ᛉĂืणฟ።Ϋ׶ྋĄܻᘲ೻่ۋ።Ϋ۞ٺ׎ѨĂຑՒκֲᄃܻᘲ೻၆ צ༊ॡዎٺ၆ืإдຑՒκֲϚ˭۞ཋҖĂྕຍ̪ព̙֖Ăڒߏ᜔యΫ྿ ܧͽܐᙱ۰Ă̟ͽаೇЩ᜖ĄѩγĂ੫၆ᛂᓑ༊צ۞ٸ୭चăႾ༰ͽ̈́߹ عӌຑՒκֲ۞ҖशĂᑕ᜔̟యĄΩγĂం೻ࡊ߆׀ҋᙸ۞͞ёĂܧ׶ڱ ።Ϋᑫ९Ă̳ฟΫफ़ĂᑭෛΫ၁Ăᔘࣧ።Ϋৌ࠹ĞTrenin, 2011: 49ğĄٸฟืإ

陸、結語

Ă።Ϋ۞གྷរĂ׀Ăᛂܻ۞ࣘڼᓜܻᘲ೻Ă።གྷՒܻ۞௚ڌຑՒκֲ ຑՒκֲ۞ᄮТĂ̙ኢߏຑՒκֲᄬ۞᜕ܲăٺિ޺၆૱ܧ଀ຑՒκֲֹ ϔ୉̼͛۞็ٚăͽ̈́็௚௫ܸ۞ჯ᜕ඈĂӮԸˢ͕˧Ąտ׎ࣧЯĂຑՒ ˢᛂᓑĂ෹࿅Η͵ࡔĂҭ౵௣ᔘਕޭ׀κֲˠϔᄮࠎĂ΁ࣇᔵ൒അజૻҖ

னЇ઼ܻዸຑՒκֲ۞ֹܑ̂ϯĂຑՒκֲဩ̰ࡗѣ 12 ༱Щ۞ܻᘲ೻ཱྀ̳ϔĂΩѣ 13 ᜕໰Ăҭֲڪѣ 15 ༱Щߏ׍ѣຑՒإ൑̳ϔྤॾ۞ܻᘲ೻ˠĂ׎ѨĂٺЩߏᛳ 83,000 ӄ఺ֱܻᘲ೻ˠĂߏ઼ܻዸຑՒκֲֹ̂ᐡ۞ࢦࢋ̍үĄםТॡߏᓾܻᄬ۞ˠ˾Ą҃ ăௐ 4 ഇĞ2018/΋؞ཱིğס Įέ៉઼ᅫࡁտ؞Ώįௐ 14 192

ೇ͹ᝋ઼छ۞гҜĂҋԧᄮТĂϺӈᄮТԧߏຑՒκֲˠ۞ຍᙊĂߏࢦࢋ ᛃĄغ۞ নҹᜋᅳ׀ჯĂГΐ˯Ă2014 ѐࣘޥ༊઼̫ܻ೼ഢᓁ௚۞Ķૻ઼ေķ ਎Ąރ҂ܻᘲ೻၆׎઼छщБ۞Ξਕޥҹ֧Ѽֲ۞ҖજĂֹܳຑՒκֲ˿ ਎Ăͽቁ઼ܲछщБĂд࢕ְ˯Ăੵ˞ૻ̼ҋ֗ރࠎՐԩᏊܻᘲ೻۞Ξਕ ณ̝γĂ֭ͷ޺ᜈஎ̼ᄃΔࡗ۞࢕ְЪүĂдགྷᑻ˯Ăΐૻ׶ለ˧઼֨۞ ༖۞གྷ෶ЪүĂТॡഴ͌၆઼ܻ۞གྷ෶ᄃਕ໚۞ֶᏥĄ ĶᏉˢለ߷ķ۞̂ጼர̝פ൒҃Ă༊ຑՒκֲࠎቁ઼ܲछ۞ϠхĂଳ ᅫĂຑՒκֲТॡϺଳҖĶᄃዐࠎචķ۞ඉரĂགྷᒉᄃܻᘲ೻۞ᗕᙝᙯܼĄ ̪ڒೱ֏̝Ăᔵ൒дጼர˯ĂຑՒκֲᏴፄԩᏊܻᘲ೻Ăҭдጼఙ˯Ă๰ ᄃం೻ࡊܲ޺̢જϹ߹Ăགྷᒉᗕᙝᙯܼ۞൴णĄ ຑՒκֲ۞Ϡх̝྽ 193

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An Analysis of the National Security Strategy of Estonia

Bai-Ku Wei Associate Professor, Institute of Russian Studies, National Chengchi University, Taipei, TAIWAN

Abstract

Estonia enjoyed independence from 1918 till 1940 and regained independence in 1991. Estonia became a new member state of the United Nations in September 1991. In addition, 2004 was an important year for Estonia’s foreign relations. In this year Estonia became a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in March and then a new member of the European Union in May. The relationship between Estonia and Russia heavily effects Estonia’s national security. This article attempts to explore the national security strategy of Estonia. At first, the paper begins with the description of current situation in Estonia. The historical background of Estonia is debated in the following section. Besides, the main threat to Estonia’s national security is discussed in the fourth section of this paper. The Estonia’s response and strategy are analyzed in the final part of this article.

Keywords: Estonia, national security strategy, balancing, Estonia and Russia