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The Bank Scene Newsletter of the Uganda Institute of Banking and Financial Services

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The Bank Scene Newsletter of the Uganda Institute of Banking and Financial Services The Bank Scene Newsletter of the Uganda Institute of Banking and Financial Services February 2020 BANK OF UGANDA MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT Editorial FOR FEBRUARY 2020 On the domestic scene, constraints to agricul- tural production including uncertain weather Dear our esteemed readers, Bank of Uganda (BoU) has in the February patterns and the current invasion by desert 2020 Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) locusts, could weigh on economic activity. The UIBFS February 2020 meeting maintained the Central Bank Rate In addition, although we assume that the eco- newsletter is here. nomic impact due to supply chain disruption Economic growth prospects remain positive resulting from coronavirus will be of a short We appreciate all Corporate Mem- with the real gross domestic product (GDP) duration, some sectors could be significantly bers that have shared with the Bank for FY 2019/20 still projected to grow in the affected. There is also a risk that the impact Scene, their developments, range of 5.5 - 6.0 percent and expected to could be larger than anticipated and more experiences and news during the accelerate to average 6.3 percent in the me- persistent. months of January and February dium term (2-3 years ahead). This economic and we are indeed indebted for your growth is supported by the accommodative As a result of the appropriate monetary poli- continued support in sending your monetary policy stance and the resultant cy stance undertaken by the BoU, the average staff to take up our training pro- growth in private sector credit, fiscal stimu- inflation rate for the last 3 years to January grams and pledge to always serve lus and multiplier effects of public infrastruc- 2020 was 3.7percent. The Consumer Price you. ture investments, improved Agricultural per- Index (CPI) data released by UBOS in Janu- formance, and a pick-up in global economy. ary 2020 indicates that inflation remains rela- We also wish to remind all those in- However, GDP growth remains below the tively subdued. Headline inflation declined to dividual members that have not yet BoU estimate of potential output growth of 3.4 percent from 3.6 percent in December paid their 2020 annual 6.5 percent. At potential, the GDP growth 2019, while core inflation remained un- subscription fees to comply in or- rate neither increases nor decreases inflation- changed at 3.0 percent. der to fully enjoy your membership ary pressure. rights and privileges. New mem- Energy Fuel and Utilities (EFU) inflation bers are also welcome. The economic growth is weighed down by declined to 7.7 percent from 8.8 percent in weak growth in exports. Moreover, domes- December 2019, while food crops inflation Kindly note that we are still receiv- tic public sector financing needs continue to declined to 2.6 percent from 3.4 percent. ing applications for the M.A in Fi- grow, increasing risk premiums and pushing The inflation outlook remains relatively un- nancial Services Degree and Post borrowing costs for the broader economy changed from the December 2019 forecast Graduate Diploma in Agricultural higher despite the accommodative monetary round, with inflation expected to converge to Risk Management & Finance policy stance. Indeed, the GDP data released the medium-term target of 5 percent. Programmes for the August – by Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) in November 2020 intake. For more December 2019 estimates economic growth The BoU assesses that risks to the projected details visit the Institute’s website for the first three quarters of 2019 at 5.2 per- path for inflation are fairly balanced. Demand at: www.uibfs.or.ug cent, lower than 5.4 percent over the same side pressures remain subdued. Global infla- Enjoy your reading! period in 2018. tion is projected to remain low. Food price inflation remains modest although unpredict- Although GDP growth is projected to rise, able weather patterns and the desert locust downside risks emanating from both the invasion create some caution about the INSIDE global and domestic environment remain. On trajectory of future food crop prices. While the global scene, risks relating to the recent Financial Services Industry news and the shilling has remained stable with a bias outbreak of the 90VID-19 (coronavirus) have towards appreciation since January 2019, highlights lowered the near-term growth outlook. There the risk remains that domestic and external is considerable uncertainty regarding the Highlights from the Registrar’s Office shocks could generate capital flow volatility duration and severity of the coronavirus ou and put pressure on the exchange rate and in- and Training Department break. If it persists for an extended period, flation. the effect on global economic activity is Professional Trainings at the Institute likely to be larger than currently projected. In The evaluation of the macroeconomic devel- addition, despite the recent positive develop- opments and outlook based on the available Upcoming Short skills Courses for ments in US-China negotiations, an escala- information set, suggests that at the current March 2020 tion in the dispute remains a key downside CBR, monetary policy stance is accommoda- risk to the global growth outlook,The recent tive, and that inflation will converge to target UIBFS Library Services and how to escalation of geopolitical tensions in the in the medium term while supporting eco- Middle East has introduced additional uncer- become a member of UIBFS nomic growth. The MPC has therefore de- tainty into global financial markets. cided to maintain the CBR at 9 percent. The The E - Learning platform can be accessed at http://elearning.uibfs.or.ug The Bank Scene February 2020 band on the CBR will remain at +/-3 percentage points and the Ben Patrick Kagoro, the board chairman at DPF, said: “The margins on the rediscount rate and bank rate will remain at 4 and agent banking model has made a significant impact on the bank- 5 percentage points on the CBR, respectively. Consequently, the ing sector, with the value of transactions processed in its first six rediscount rate and the bank rate remain at 13 percent and 14 months of operation standing at shs.74 trillion. It is envisaged percent, respectively. that agent banking will steadily attract the unbanked into the for- mal financial sector.” Julia Clare Olima Oyet, the Chief Execu- Source : Bank of Uganda tive Officer of DPF, said the major sources of income to the fund were interest earned on treasury instruments and contributions from financial institutions, which accounted for 68% and 32% of total income respectively “Interest income stood at sh86bn, while contributions from financial institutions were sh41bn as at June 2019,” she said. DPF Outlook: Last year, the Government increased the deposit protection cover for bank clients from sh3mn to sh10mn to pro- vide a safety net for individuals holding huge sums of money in the unlikely event that a contributing financial institution is closed. DPF is fast-tracking the draft Microfinance Deposit-taking Insti- tution Regulations to stretch its services to people saving their money with savings and credit co-operatives (SACCOS). The regulations, once finalized by the finance ministry and approved by Parliament, will automatically make SACCOS members of the DPF. To further tighten its systems, the Central Bank and DPF commenced the process of verifying financial cards against National ID data held by the National Identification and Regis- tration Authority (NIRA). This development, according to Oyet, will support the DPF in its drive to ensure that all customers of contributing institutions are identified using their National Iden- Bank deposit accounts grow to 14 million – tification Numbers. All customers should visit their respective financial institutions and update their details using the National Deposit Protection Fund (DPF) Identification Numbers and a preferred mobile number where deposits can be sent in the unlikely event of a bank closure,” In the last 12 months to June 2019, financial institutions added at she said. least three million new deposit accounts on their balance sheets despite competition from new technologies, official data shows. Source: New vision Deposit accounts across all regulated financial institutions in- creased from 11 million to 14 million as at end of June 2019. As such, deposits in the banking sector grew from sh20 trillion to Uganda Government urged to implement sh22 trillion. A deposit account could be a savings or current ac- Development Plans count or any other type of account that allows the bank account holder to deposit or withdraw money. Dr. Danny Leipziger from the US George Washington Universi- ty has urged Uganda Government urged to implement Develop- The increase in the number of deposit accounts was largely ment plans. Dr. Leipziger was the guest speaker at the 5th Gov- due to a pick-up in loans and a relatively good economic per- ernors Public Lecture at the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) formance during the period under review. A report from the conference hall, held in Kampala recently. The lecture was or- Uganda Deposit Protection Fund (DPF), an institution charged ganized by the Bank of Uganda, and the International Growth with protecting customers’ deposits at banks, for the year ended Centre (IGC). Dr. Leipziger’s presentation was titled: Uganda’s June 2019, indicated that the increase in the number of deposits industrialization strategy, challenges, opportunities and lessons accounts, coupled with investments in treasury bills and bonds, of experience. It was influenced by the financial year 2019/20 saw the institution register a fund growth of nearly sh112 Bil- national budget speech under the theme: Industrialization for Job lion. “The major contributor to the asset growth was the fund Creation and Shared Prosperity. surplus of sh112Billion, which increased from sh77bn registered during the year ended June 2018,” the report read, According to He said Uganda should priorities areas where the country has the report, the total assets of the DPF increased from sh583bn to competitive advantage, most especially in agro-processing.
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