The Ito Integral
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A Convenient Category for Higher-Order Probability Theory
A Convenient Category for Higher-Order Probability Theory Chris Heunen Ohad Kammar Sam Staton Hongseok Yang University of Edinburgh, UK University of Oxford, UK University of Oxford, UK University of Oxford, UK Abstract—Higher-order probabilistic programming languages 1 (defquery Bayesian-linear-regression allow programmers to write sophisticated models in machine 2 let let sample normal learning and statistics in a succinct and structured way, but step ( [f ( [s ( ( 0.0 3.0)) 3 sample normal outside the standard measure-theoretic formalization of proba- b ( ( 0.0 3.0))] 4 fn + * bility theory. Programs may use both higher-order functions and ( [x] ( ( s x) b)))] continuous distributions, or even define a probability distribution 5 (observe (normal (f 1.0) 0.5) 2.5) on functions. But standard probability theory does not handle 6 (observe (normal (f 2.0) 0.5) 3.8) higher-order functions well: the category of measurable spaces 7 (observe (normal (f 3.0) 0.5) 4.5) is not cartesian closed. 8 (observe (normal (f 4.0) 0.5) 6.2) Here we introduce quasi-Borel spaces. We show that these 9 (observe (normal (f 5.0) 0.5) 8.0) spaces: form a new formalization of probability theory replacing 10 (predict :f f))) measurable spaces; form a cartesian closed category and so support higher-order functions; form a well-pointed category and so support good proof principles for equational reasoning; and support continuous probability distributions. We demonstrate the use of quasi-Borel spaces for higher-order functions and proba- bility by: showing that a well-known construction of probability theory involving random functions gains a cleaner expression; and generalizing de Finetti’s theorem, that is a crucial theorem in probability theory, to quasi-Borel spaces. -
Jointly Measurable and Progressively Measurable Stochastic Processes
Jointly measurable and progressively measurable stochastic processes Jordan Bell [email protected] Department of Mathematics, University of Toronto June 18, 2015 1 Jointly measurable stochastic processes d Let E = R with Borel E , let I = R≥0, which is a topological space with the subspace topology inherited from R, and let (Ω; F ;P ) be a probability space. For a stochastic process (Xt)t2I with state space E, we say that X is jointly measurable if the map (t; !) 7! Xt(!) is measurable BI ⊗ F ! E . For ! 2 Ω, the path t 7! Xt(!) is called left-continuous if for each t 2 I, Xs(!) ! Xt(!); s " t: We prove that if the paths of a stochastic process are left-continuous then the stochastic process is jointly measurable.1 Theorem 1. If X is a stochastic process with state space E and all the paths of X are left-continuous, then X is jointly measurable. Proof. For n ≥ 1, t 2 I, and ! 2 Ω, let 1 n X Xt (!) = 1[k2−n;(k+1)2−n)(t)Xk2−n (!): k=0 n Each X is measurable BI ⊗ F ! E : for B 2 E , 1 n [ −n −n f(t; !) 2 I × Ω: Xt (!) 2 Bg = [k2 ; (k + 1)2 ) × fXk2−n 2 Bg: k=0 −n −n Let t 2 I. For each n there is a unique kn for which t 2 [kn2 ; (kn +1)2 ), and n −n −n thus Xt (!) = Xkn2 (!). Furthermore, kn2 " t, and because s 7! Xs(!) is n −n left-continuous, Xkn2 (!) ! Xt(!). -
On Hitting Times for Jump-Diffusion Processes with Past Dependent Local Characteristics
Stochastic Processes and their Applications 47 ( 1993) 131-142 131 North-Holland On hitting times for jump-diffusion processes with past dependent local characteristics Manfred Schal Institut fur Angewandte Mathematik, Universitiit Bonn, Germany Received 30 March 1992 Revised 14 September 1992 It is well known how to apply a martingale argument to obtain the Laplace transform of the hitting time of zero (say) for certain processes starting at a positive level and being skip-free downwards. These processes have stationary and independent increments. In the present paper the method is extended to a more general class of processes the increments of which may depend both on time and past history. As a result a generalized Laplace transform is obtained which can be used to derive sharp bounds for the mean and the variance of the hitting time. The bounds also solve the control problem of how to minimize or maximize the expected time to reach zero. AMS 1980 Subject Classification: Primary 60G40; Secondary 60K30. hitting times * Laplace transform * expectation and variance * martingales * diffusions * compound Poisson process* random walks* M/G/1 queue* perturbation* control 1. Introduction Consider a process X,= S,- ct + uW, where Sis a compound Poisson process with Poisson parameter A which is disturbed by an independent standard Wiener process W This is the point of view of Dufresne and Gerber (1991). One can also look on X as a diffusion disturbed by jumps. This is the point of view of Ethier and Kurtz (1986, Section 4.10). Here u and A may be zero so that the jump term or the diffusion term may vanish. -
Stochastic Differential Equations
Stochastic Differential Equations Stefan Geiss November 25, 2020 2 Contents 1 Introduction 5 1.0.1 Wolfgang D¨oblin . .6 1.0.2 Kiyoshi It^o . .7 2 Stochastic processes in continuous time 9 2.1 Some definitions . .9 2.2 Two basic examples of stochastic processes . 15 2.3 Gaussian processes . 17 2.4 Brownian motion . 31 2.5 Stopping and optional times . 36 2.6 A short excursion to Markov processes . 41 3 Stochastic integration 43 3.1 Definition of the stochastic integral . 44 3.2 It^o'sformula . 64 3.3 Proof of Ito^'s formula in a simple case . 76 3.4 For extended reading . 80 3.4.1 Local time . 80 3.4.2 Three-dimensional Brownian motion is transient . 83 4 Stochastic differential equations 87 4.1 What is a stochastic differential equation? . 87 4.2 Strong Uniqueness of SDE's . 90 4.3 Existence of strong solutions of SDE's . 94 4.4 Theorems of L´evyand Girsanov . 98 4.5 Solutions of SDE's by a transformation of drift . 103 4.6 Weak solutions . 105 4.7 The Cox-Ingersoll-Ross SDE . 108 3 4 CONTENTS 4.8 The martingale representation theorem . 116 5 BSDEs 121 5.1 Introduction . 121 5.2 Setting . 122 5.3 A priori estimate . 123 Chapter 1 Introduction One goal of the lecture is to study stochastic differential equations (SDE's). So let us start with a (hopefully) motivating example: Assume that Xt is the share price of a company at time t ≥ 0 where we assume without loss of generality that X0 := 1. -
Shape Analysis, Lebesgue Integration and Absolute Continuity Connections
NISTIR 8217 Shape Analysis, Lebesgue Integration and Absolute Continuity Connections Javier Bernal This publication is available free of charge from: https://doi.org/10.6028/NIST.IR.8217 NISTIR 8217 Shape Analysis, Lebesgue Integration and Absolute Continuity Connections Javier Bernal Applied and Computational Mathematics Division Information Technology Laboratory This publication is available free of charge from: https://doi.org/10.6028/NIST.IR.8217 July 2018 INCLUDES UPDATES AS OF 07-18-2018; SEE APPENDIX U.S. Department of Commerce Wilbur L. Ross, Jr., Secretary National Institute of Standards and Technology Walter Copan, NIST Director and Undersecretary of Commerce for Standards and Technology ______________________________________________________________________________________________________ This Shape Analysis, Lebesgue Integration and publication Absolute Continuity Connections Javier Bernal is National Institute of Standards and Technology, available Gaithersburg, MD 20899, USA free of Abstract charge As shape analysis of the form presented in Srivastava and Klassen’s textbook “Functional and Shape Data Analysis” is intricately related to Lebesgue integration and absolute continuity, it is advantageous from: to have a good grasp of the latter two notions. Accordingly, in these notes we review basic concepts and results about Lebesgue integration https://doi.org/10.6028/NIST.IR.8217 and absolute continuity. In particular, we review fundamental results connecting them to each other and to the kind of shape analysis, or more generally, functional data analysis presented in the aforeme- tioned textbook, in the process shedding light on important aspects of all three notions. Many well-known results, especially most results about Lebesgue integration and some results about absolute conti- nuity, are presented without proofs. -
THE MEASURABILITY of HITTING TIMES 1 Introduction
Elect. Comm. in Probab. 15 (2010), 99–105 ELECTRONIC COMMUNICATIONS in PROBABILITY THE MEASURABILITY OF HITTING TIMES RICHARD F. BASS1 Department of Mathematics, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269-3009 email: [email protected] Submitted January 18, 2010, accepted in final form March 8, 2010 AMS 2000 Subject classification: Primary: 60G07; Secondary: 60G05, 60G40 Keywords: Stopping time, hitting time, progressively measurable, optional, predictable, debut theorem, section theorem Abstract Under very general conditions the hitting time of a set by a stochastic process is a stopping time. We give a new simple proof of this fact. The section theorems for optional and predictable sets are easy corollaries of the proof. 1 Introduction A fundamental theorem in the foundations of stochastic processes is the one that says that, under very general conditions, the first time a stochastic process enters a set is a stopping time. The proof uses capacities, analytic sets, and Choquet’s capacibility theorem, and is considered hard. To the best of our knowledge, no more than a handful of books have an exposition that starts with the definition of capacity and proceeds to the hitting time theorem. (One that does is [1].) The purpose of this paper is to give a short and elementary proof of this theorem. The proof is simple enough that it could easily be included in a first year graduate course in probability. In Section 2 we give a proof of the debut theorem, from which the measurability theorem follows. As easy corollaries we obtain the section theorems for optional and predictable sets. This argument is given in Section 3. -
LEBESGUE MEASURE and L2 SPACE. Contents 1. Measure Spaces 1 2. Lebesgue Integration 2 3. L2 Space 4 Acknowledgments 9 References
LEBESGUE MEASURE AND L2 SPACE. ANNIE WANG Abstract. This paper begins with an introduction to measure spaces and the Lebesgue theory of measure and integration. Several important theorems regarding the Lebesgue integral are then developed. Finally, we prove the completeness of the L2(µ) space and show that it is a metric space, and a Hilbert space. Contents 1. Measure Spaces 1 2. Lebesgue Integration 2 3. L2 Space 4 Acknowledgments 9 References 9 1. Measure Spaces Definition 1.1. Suppose X is a set. Then X is said to be a measure space if there exists a σ-ring M (that is, M is a nonempty family of subsets of X closed under countable unions and under complements)of subsets of X and a non-negative countably additive set function µ (called a measure) defined on M . If X 2 M, then X is said to be a measurable space. For example, let X = Rp, M the collection of Lebesgue-measurable subsets of Rp, and µ the Lebesgue measure. Another measure space can be found by taking X to be the set of all positive integers, M the collection of all subsets of X, and µ(E) the number of elements of E. We will be interested only in a special case of the measure, the Lebesgue measure. The Lebesgue measure allows us to extend the notions of length and volume to more complicated sets. Definition 1.2. Let Rp be a p-dimensional Euclidean space . We denote an interval p of R by the set of points x = (x1; :::; xp) such that (1.3) ai ≤ xi ≤ bi (i = 1; : : : ; p) Definition 1.4. -
1 Measurable Functions
36-752 Advanced Probability Overview Spring 2018 2. Measurable Functions, Random Variables, and Integration Instructor: Alessandro Rinaldo Associated reading: Sec 1.5 of Ash and Dol´eans-Dade; Sec 1.3 and 1.4 of Durrett. 1 Measurable Functions 1.1 Measurable functions Measurable functions are functions that we can integrate with respect to measures in much the same way that continuous functions can be integrated \dx". Recall that the Riemann integral of a continuous function f over a bounded interval is defined as a limit of sums of lengths of subintervals times values of f on the subintervals. The measure of a set generalizes the length while elements of the σ-field generalize the intervals. Recall that a real-valued function is continuous if and only if the inverse image of every open set is open. This generalizes to the inverse image of every measurable set being measurable. Definition 1 (Measurable Functions). Let (Ω; F) and (S; A) be measurable spaces. Let f :Ω ! S be a function that satisfies f −1(A) 2 F for each A 2 A. Then we say that f is F=A-measurable. If the σ-field’s are to be understood from context, we simply say that f is measurable. Example 2. Let F = 2Ω. Then every function from Ω to a set S is measurable no matter what A is. Example 3. Let A = f?;Sg. Then every function from a set Ω to S is measurable, no matter what F is. Proving that a function is measurable is facilitated by noticing that inverse image commutes with union, complement, and intersection. -
Notes 2 : Measure-Theoretic Foundations II
Notes 2 : Measure-theoretic foundations II Math 733-734: Theory of Probability Lecturer: Sebastien Roch References: [Wil91, Chapters 4-6, 8], [Dur10, Sections 1.4-1.7, 2.1]. 1 Independence 1.1 Definition of independence Let (Ω; F; P) be a probability space. DEF 2.1 (Independence) Sub-σ-algebras G1; G2;::: of F are independent for all Gi 2 Gi, i ≥ 1, and distinct i1; : : : ; in we have n Y P[Gi1 \···\ Gin ] = P[Gij ]: j=1 Specializing to events and random variables: DEF 2.2 (Independent RVs) RVs X1;X2;::: are independent if the σ-algebras σ(X1); σ(X2);::: are independent. DEF 2.3 (Independent Events) Events E1;E2;::: are independent if the σ-algebras c Ei = f;;Ei;Ei ; Ωg; i ≥ 1; are independent. The more familiar definitions are the following: THM 2.4 (Independent RVs: Familiar definition) RVs X, Y are independent if and only if for all x; y 2 R P[X ≤ x; Y ≤ y] = P[X ≤ x]P[Y ≤ y]: THM 2.5 (Independent events: Familiar definition) Events E1, E2 are indepen- dent if and only if P[E1 \ E2] = P[E1]P[E2]: 1 Lecture 2: Measure-theoretic foundations II 2 The proofs of these characterizations follows immediately from the following lemma. LEM 2.6 (Independence and π-systems) Suppose that G and H are sub-σ-algebras and that I and J are π-systems such that σ(I) = G; σ(J ) = H: Then G and H are independent if and only if I and J are, i.e., P[I \ J] = P[I]P[J]; 8I 2 I;J 2 J : Proof: Suppose I and J are independent. -
(Measure Theory for Dummies) UWEE Technical Report Number UWEETR-2006-0008
A Measure Theory Tutorial (Measure Theory for Dummies) Maya R. Gupta {gupta}@ee.washington.edu Dept of EE, University of Washington Seattle WA, 98195-2500 UWEE Technical Report Number UWEETR-2006-0008 May 2006 Department of Electrical Engineering University of Washington Box 352500 Seattle, Washington 98195-2500 PHN: (206) 543-2150 FAX: (206) 543-3842 URL: http://www.ee.washington.edu A Measure Theory Tutorial (Measure Theory for Dummies) Maya R. Gupta {gupta}@ee.washington.edu Dept of EE, University of Washington Seattle WA, 98195-2500 University of Washington, Dept. of EE, UWEETR-2006-0008 May 2006 Abstract This tutorial is an informal introduction to measure theory for people who are interested in reading papers that use measure theory. The tutorial assumes one has had at least a year of college-level calculus, some graduate level exposure to random processes, and familiarity with terms like “closed” and “open.” The focus is on the terms and ideas relevant to applied probability and information theory. There are no proofs and no exercises. Measure theory is a bit like grammar, many people communicate clearly without worrying about all the details, but the details do exist and for good reasons. There are a number of great texts that do measure theory justice. This is not one of them. Rather this is a hack way to get the basic ideas down so you can read through research papers and follow what’s going on. Hopefully, you’ll get curious and excited enough about the details to check out some of the references for a deeper understanding. -
Lecture 18 : Itō Calculus
Lecture 18 : Itō Calculus 1. Ito's calculus In the previous lecture, we have observed that a sample Brownian path is nowhere differentiable with probability 1. In other words, the differentiation dBt dt does not exist. However, while studying Brownain motions, or when using Brownian motion as a model, the situation of estimating the difference of a function of the type f(Bt) over an infinitesimal time difference occurs quite frequently (suppose that f is a smooth function). To be more precise, we are considering a function f(t; Bt) which depends only on the second variable. Hence there exists an implicit dependence on time since the Brownian motion depends on time. dBt If the differentiation dt existed, then we can easily do this by using chain rule: dB df = t · f 0(B ) dt: dt t We already know that the formula above makes no sense. One possible way to work around this problem is to try to describe the difference df in terms of the difference dBt. In this case, the equation above becomes 0 (1.1) df = f (Bt)dBt: Our new formula at least makes sense, since there is no need to refer to the dBt differentiation dt which does not exist. The only problem is that it does not quite work. Consider the Taylor expansion of f to obtain (∆x)2 (∆x)3 f(x + ∆x) − f(x) = (∆x) · f 0(x) + f 00(x) + f 000(x) + ··· : 2 6 To deduce Equation (1.1) from this formula, we must be able to say that the significant term is the first term (∆x) · f 0(x) and all other terms are of smaller order of magnitude. -
Tight Inequalities Among Set Hitting Times in Markov Chains
PROCEEDINGS OF THE AMERICAN MATHEMATICAL SOCIETY Volume 00, Number 0, Pages 000–000 S 0002-9939(XX)0000-0 TIGHT INEQUALITIES AMONG SET HITTING TIMES IN MARKOV CHAINS SIMON GRIFFITHS, ROSS J. KANG, ROBERTO IMBUZEIRO OLIVEIRA, AND VIRESH PATEL Abstract. Given an irreducible discrete-time Markov chain on a finite state space, we consider the largest expected hitting time T (α) of a set of stationary measure at least α for α ∈ (0, 1). We obtain tight inequalities among the values of T (α) for different choices of α. One consequence is that T (α) ≤ T (1/2)/α for all α < 1/2. As a corollary we have that, if the chain is lazy in a certain sense as well as reversible, then T (1/2) is equivalent to the chain’s mixing time, answering a question of Peres. We furthermore demonstrate that the inequalities we establish give an almost everywhere pointwise limiting characterisation of possible hitting time functions T (α) over the domain α ∈ (0, 1/2]. 1. Introduction Hitting times are a classical topic in the theory of finite Markov chains, with connections to mixing times, cover times and electrical network representations [5, 6]. In this paper, we consider a natural family of extremal problems for maximum expected hitting times. In contrast to most earlier work on hitting times that considered the maximum expected hitting times of individual states, we focus on hitting sets of states of at least a given stationary measure. Informally, we are interested in the following basic question: how much more difficult is it to hit a smaller set than a larger one? (We note that other, quite different extremal problems about hitting times have been considered, e.g.