South China Sea Intelligence Briefngs Weekly Briefing: November 22nd

At The Open Source Briefing, we remain committed to providing the public with ongoing developments around the globe.

United States Author: Kevin O’Connell ​ ​

Image Courtesy of USNI Fleet Tracker [1]

This week there were several developments concerning the United States and the South China Sea, ranging from the strategic to the operational. At the strategic level, the most significant updates include the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) by China and other countries in the region, calls by the United States Secretary of the Navy, Kenneth Braithwaite, to establish a United States Navy 1st Fleet for the Indo-Pacific, and a potential renaissance for the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) between the United States, India, Japan, and Australia exemplified by the multilateral Exercise Malabar. At the operational level, some of the most significant events include a North to South transit of the Taiwan strait by USS

The Open Source Briefing 1 ​ Barry (DDG-52), an overflight of the island of Taiwan by a U.S. Navy EP-3E ARIES II ELINT aircraft, a joint Bomber Task Force mission by B1-B Lancers from Andersen AFB and JASDF F-15Js and F-2s in the vicinity of Japan, and a joint mine warfare exercise (MINEX) between the JMSDF and U.S. Navy Mine Countermeasures Squadron 7. These are just a few of the most notable updates from this week and demonstrate just how busy of a week it was for the United States in the Indo-Pacific.

Strategic Updates: The first strategic topic worth exploring in more depth is the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) by 15 Indo-Pacific nations, including China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and the ASEAN member states. The RCEP now represents the largest international trade deal globally and includes approximately 30% of the global population and GDP. Notably, the United States is not a participant in the agreement, which has been described as a diplomatic and economic coup for China when it was facing international criticism for its handling of the Covid-19 pandemic.

A second strategic topic that is worthy of particular attention is the announcement by United States Secretary of the Navy Kenneth Braithwaite that the U.S. Navy will seek to establish a new 1st Fleet to be based in the Indo-Pacific. While the basing of the 1st Fleet has yet to be determined, the statement by SecNav Braithwaite indicates that the command will aim to reduce the burden on the oft overtaxed 7th Fleet in Japan, saying, "We can't just rely on the fleet in Japan," and that "We have to look to other allies and partners, like Singapore, like India, and put a numbered fleet where it would be extremely relevant if, God forbid, we were to get in any kind of dustup." The re-establishment of the 1st Fleet as part of a broader strategy to balance against China parallels the re-establishment of the 2nd Fleet in 2018 in the Atlantic to balance against a resurgent Russia.

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Finally, a third strategically important development is a potential renaissance for the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) between the United States, India, Japan, and Australia. This week, the second phase of Exercise Malabar took place in the Indian Ocean, headlined by joint operations between the Indian Vikramaditya Carrier Battle Group and the American Nimitz Carrier Strike Group. Japanese and Australian ships also participated in the training indicating a renewed level of cooperation between the members of the Quad. There are indications that this is just one step towards a further resurgence of the Quad as a vital balance against China, which would have significant implications for the regional balance of power.

Additional strategic and political updates include a meeting between the Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga and USMC Commandant General David Berger on November 18th where they both emphasized the strength of the U.S.-Japan alliance, a two-day visit to Vietnam by White House National Security Advisor Robert O'Brien where he met with Vietnamese officials and discussed a wide range of security issues, and a visit by U.S. Undersecretary of State Keith Krach to Taiwan where he signed an agreement establishing the U.S.-Taiwan Economic Prosperity Partnership Dialogue signaling closer economic ties.

The Open Source Briefing 3 ​ Operational Updates: This week demonstrated the high operational tempo of United States forces in the region with several simultaneous actions, including a transit of the Taiwan Strait by the USS Barry (DDG-52). The Barry made a North to South transit of the strait on November 20th and continued into the South China Sea to conduct maritime security operations. Regular transits of the Taiwan strait by U.S. Navy warships emphasize America's commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific. Also, on the 20th, there is some evidence that a U.S. Navy EP-3E ARIES II ELINT aircraft registration #156511 flight number and hex code #AE1D8A was observed flying over the island of Taiwan via flight tracking software. This is single-source intelligence and should be treated skeptically without further verification. While it is unclear whether these actions are related, U.S. military overflights of Taiwan are relatively rare and could further inflame cross-strait relations.

This flight is in addition to several other EP-3E and P-8A flights over the South China Sea this week documented in more depth at the end of this report. One flight of note, though, was the joint operations between JASDF F-15J and F-2 fighters with the United States Air Force B1-B Bombers in the vicinity of Japan. Bomber Task Force missions like this are part of the Dynamic Force Employment strategy supporting the

The Open Source Briefing 4 ​ National Defense Strategy objectives of strategic and operational unpredictability. They are also intended to show America's commitment to the defense of its allies, in this case, Japan. The BTF mission was not even the only joint U.S.-Japan exercise this week. On November 20th, the U.S. Navy and JMSDF began the sea portion of Mine Warfare Exercise (MINEX) 3JA 2020 off Japan's southwestern coast. Intended to practice and improve mine countermeasure operations, MINEX 3JA 2020 included units from U.S. Navy Mine Countermeasures Squadron Seven, including USS Patriot (MCM-7).

China Author: Tad Unruh ​ ​ While there is ongoing uncertainty in the United States regarding the succession of power, Chinese actions in the SCS are continuing to operate at full bore. The update on China’s SCS developments includes a large invasion practice, their persistent strategy of lingering, and challenges from the United States military.

Click here for a video of the PLA Navy drills near China’s Guangdong Province

On Tuesday, November 17th, Chinese state media ‘the Global Times’ posted a video on its Twitter announcing that the PLA navy had conducted “amphibious assault drills off the coast of Guangdong province.[1] The tweet boasted the breaking of multiple speed and combat range records for the PLAN as soldiers and armored vehicles spilled out of the landing crafts onto a beach.[2] This was the first day of a series of exercises that will continue until November 30th.[3] Many experts believe this set of exercises are a direct challenge to the Malabar exercises, and also further preparation for an invasion of Taiwan.

The same day of the amphibious assault drills, November 17th, the United States Navy flew two B1-B Lancer bombers into China’s ADIZ as a direct challenge to China.[4] China has repeatedly breached the Taiwanese ADIZ over the past year, however, this is the first notable occurrence this fall of the United States returning the favor. It is notable that this ADIZ is recognized by China, and not by the USA nor Japan in this area.

The US Navy added to its challenges the following day by announcing that their ‘SM-3 Block IIA interceptor test’ was successful in shooting down a mock ICBM.[5] Last week the Open Source briefing reported on the announcement that China had launched

The Open Source Briefing 5 ​ two of their ship-based ‘aircraft carrier killer’ missiles that were launched in August, hitting a test ship. The US’s announcement of their interceptor test is a direct response to China’s actions.

Chinese ships are notorious for lingering in certain areas of the SCS and the East China Sea, however, in recent months the Senkaku islands have been a focal point of Chinese patrol ships. As of Thursday, November 19th, it was the 300th day this year that Chinese ships were spotted and were conducting maneuvers in the area, a record high.[6] The Japanese Self Defense force, navy, and coast guard have repeatedly had to deal with and attempt to expel the intruders.

Taiwan Author: Tad Unruh ​ ​ Three weeks prior, Taiwan grounded its entire F-5 jet fighter fleet after a pilot crashed and died due to malfunctions with the aging aircraft. Last week the F-5’s were cleared to begin flying again after thorough checks. However, the F-5 fleet will be phased out by 2024. This week there was a memorial service where Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen honored the service of the fallen F-5 pilot.[1]

With all of the concern regarding the F-5 fleet, a Taiwanese F-16A fighter is thought to have crashed quickly after takeoff on Tuesday. The plane disappeared from radar within two minutes of takeoff, and within hours of the President Tsai Ing-Wen led memorial service. It is the 7th F-16 crash since 1988, with the most recent f-16 fatality being two years ago. Tuesday’s incident launched search and coast guard vehicles, and effectively grounded the entire fleet of F-16’s. At around 150 planes, this is about half of Taiwan’s entire fleet, which was already stretched thin with the perceived issues of the F-5 and the repeated incursions of the PLA into Taiwanese airspace, which has cost the Taiwanese government nearly $900 million by having to scramble fighters.[2] The Chinese, English language state media organ, The Global Times denounced the blame of the Chinese military for “frequent visits by the PLA planes to the island, which mainland military experts say is only an excuse for the island’s untenable military capacity.”[3]

Chinese netizens on Friday the 20th began spreading rumors that, instead of crashing, the pilot defected to China, landing at the Xiamen airport in Fujian province.[4]

The Open Source Briefing 6 ​ This rumor was condemned by the Taiwanese Military Defense as being baseless and without evidence.

Saturday, the Taiwanese military announced that it had located the general area in which the F-16 had gone down. It began salvage operations on Saturday and will continue to try to find the source of the flight data recorder and further determine the cause of the crash.[5]

Lastly, on Saturday, the USS Barry sailed through the Taiwan Strait in another freedom of navigation operation, the 11th time this year that a US warship has executed one in this area.[6]

Japan In regards to reports of Japanese military jets scrambling in response to airspace intrusion, Self Defense Force Officials have not been announcing whether these intruding aircraft are civilian or military.

The Japan Joint Staff official Twitter account reported that on 15 November, fighter jets were scrambled to respond to an intrusion of airspace above the East China Sea.[1] 16 November, ASDF fighters were scrambled in response to airspace intrusion above the Sea of Japan and the East China Sea. In addition to these reports, on 17 November, ASDF jets were scrambled to respond to detected air intrusions above the Sea of Japan and Sea of Okhotsk.[2] On 19 November, fighters from the Southwestern Air Defense Force were scrambled to respond to air intrusions over the Sea of Okhotsk and the East China Sea. No updates were given as to whether the aircraft belonged to a specific nation-state.[3]

Phase 2 of the at-sea operational exercise “Malabar 2020” began on 17 November and ended on the 18th. The exercise included Japan, the U.S, India, and Australia and is meant to ensure operational familiarity between the four strategic defense partners.[4] Japan’s JS Murasame destroyer attended on behalf of the JMSDF.

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The photo above courtesy of the Royal Australian Navy Official Twitter account. Photographer: US Navy Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Elliot Schaudt

On 18 November, Japan’s Mine Warfare Force conducted mine warfare training with United States Naval forces in Miyazaki Prefecture. Training is reported to be continuing to 28 November.[5]

General Yamazaki met with top military officers from the U.S and South Korea on 19 November in a video conference to primarily discuss relations with North Korea and to also discuss peace and stability in northeast Asia.[6] Cooperation between the three Asian powers has been critical to the enduring stability of the region. Considering North Korea’s apparent non-compliance with denuclearization commitments and China’s increasing willingness to utilize hard power tactics in the region, cooperation will most probably grow within the next decade.

In a tremendous blow to Chinese regional influence, Japan and Australia reached a basic agreement on a defense pact that would strengthen cooperation between respective military personnel.[7] Suga and Morrison stated that the agreement would allow troops to visit the other’s territory and participate in joint operations in that territory.[8] The establishment of diplomatic security infrastructure will be crucial for the future stability of East Asia.

Reports have come out revealing a surprising consideration for policy by the JMSDF in 2016. The JMSDF had been planning to conduct its own FONOP around Chinese man-made islands in the South China Sea. The intent would have been to send a message in response to Chinese vessels sailing in and near Japanese territorial

The Open Source Briefing 8 ​ waters that year. The plan was later rejected by the Abe administration as they were attempting to improve Japanese-Sino relations and sought not to deteriorate any chance of healthy communication between the two nations.[9]

Philippines During the week, updates on Manila’s possible unilateral oil and gas projects in the SCS were reported and initial details regarding the Philippines’ pending receipt of precision-guided munitions (PGMs) were revealed. Additionally, the Philippine Navy (PN) and the Republic of Korea Navy (ROKN) held drills in the waters off Bataan, bordering the SCS.

Philippine legislators continued to urge the Department of Energy (DOE) to encourage Philippine oil companies to pursue oil and gas exploration efforts in the SCS regardless of participation or opposition from China. Senator Risa Hontiveros opined that the vast oil and gas reserves in Reed Bank in the SCS should be enough for the DOE to encourage Filipino firms to continue their work without fear of Chinese aggression. Hontiveros cited DOE and independent experts’ assessments that the energy reserves in Reed Bank could be worth over US$22B and can theoretically supply the Philippines’ needs for up to 100 years. Hontiveros said that no true joint venture with Chinese state-owned companies can ever take place until China recognizes the 2016 Arbitral Ruling and the Philippines’ sovereign rights over its Exclusive Economic Zone. She pointed out that a survey ship owned by the Manila-based PXP Energy Company--which holds a contract for Reed Bank--was harassed by Chinese boats in the same area in 2011. Hontiveros’ comments echoed the sentiments of Senators Ralph Recto and Sherwin Gatchalian who warned against partnering with Chinese firms in oil contracts in the SCS.

Meanwhile, Philippine Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana on 17 November disclosed that the Philippine Air Force (PAF) would receive PGMs from the US, worth about US$18M in December 2020 but did not provide further details. Lorenzana stated that he discussed the arms transfer with US Charges d’Affairs John Law in Camp Aguinaldo sometime last week and that the weapons would be used to guard against external and internal threats, citing Daesh-inspired groups in particular. He admitted that the PAF ran-out of PGMs during the opening days of the 2017 Marawi Siege, forcing the Service’s FA-50PHs to use unguided munitions which resulted in the deaths of about 12 soldiers. To recall, the PAF’s PGM-capable aircraft are the 12 FA-50PH light fighters, six A-29B Super Tucano, and several upgraded OV-10 Bronco strike

The Open Source Briefing 9 ​ planes. Delivery of the A-29s was completed in October 2020 with Lorenzana expressing interest in the purchase of six more examples of the highly successful counterinsurgency plane.

In other military developments, the PN and ROKN on 17 November held a Passing Exercise (PASSEX) in waters off Manila, with the latter donating 10,000 facemasks and 2,000 bottles of hand sanitizers to help combat the COVID-19 pandemic. The ROKN Cruise Training Task Group--which began its 72-day annual training cruise in October--is composed of the destroyer ROKS Gang Gam-chan and 10,000-ton logistics ship ROKS Soyang conducted the PASSEX with the PN’s BRP Conrado Yap patrol corvette which was transferred from Seoul in 2019. The facemasks and bottles of hand sanitizers were transferred from the Soyang to the Yap via a rigid hull inflatable boat from the former. The three ships reportedly conducted “tactical maneuvers'' during the PASSEX but no other details were revealed. The ships also received a low altitude fly-past from two PAF FA-50PH light fighters during the exercise.

The BRP Conrado Yap is photographed with the ROKS Soyang in the background during a PASSEX in Philippine waters on 17 November 2020. Image courtesy of ROKN Facebook page.

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The Philippines has limited options in conducting unilateral oil and gas exploration in the SCS given China’s assertive actions and highly publicized opposition to Vietnamese and Malaysian prospecting in the disputed waterway in 2019 and 2020. In general, western oil firms appear to be risk-averse in engaging in oil and gas projects in the SCS, and Filipino firms lack both the capability to explore and extract energy reserves Reed Bank. Furthermore, companies like Repsol have canceled contracts with Vietnam in the SCS over China’s aggressive posture in the area. While the 2018 Philippines-China Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on oil and gas exploration explicitly states that any joint project will not be prejudicial to existing claims, the non-binding nature of the MoU requires deals to be entered in “good faith” since no safeguards exist to guard against defection by either party. The Philippines would have to find a way to extract energy reserves in the SCS while also safeguarding its national interests in the disputed waterway. Partnering with the US or Chinese firms will likely result in retaliation from the government of the other, though Washington is unlikely to go beyond sanctions or statements of opposition. The Philippines could also decide to wait and build-up its own military and oil extraction capabilities in order to pursue unilateral energy projects in the SCS at a later date.

On military developments, the transfer of PGMs represents a significant boost in the PAF’s strike capability, possibly paving the way for maritime strike missions in the medium-term. Despite the possibility that the new PGMs will likely be used for internal security operations, the availability of such munitions opens the door for more strike training to be conducted for aircrews. Meanwhile, the PN-ROKN PASSEX involved the relatively aged BRP Conrado Yap as opposed to the newer and, similar to the Yap, South Korean-built BRP Jose Rizal guided-missile frigate. The Rizal was previously deployed to Hawaii for the 2020 iteration of the US-led Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) exercises and its absence in the recent PASSEX is notable. It is possible that the Rizal is out on actual patrol missions or that the vessel is undergoing maintenance work.

Relatedly, the PASSEX was reportedly conducted off “Manila waters”--implying Manila Bay--however, social media chatter claims that the exercise was done near Bataan, much closer to the SCS than initially believed. The ROKN Training Group was reported to be proceeding to Malaysia, hence a PASSEX off Bataan would make more logistic and geographic sense than deviating from its current route and entering Manila Bay. It is likely that the exact location of the PASSEX was not reported due to President

The Open Source Briefing 11 ​ Rodrigo Duterte’s standing order barring the Philippine military from conducting drills with other countries in the SCS.

Vietnam Author: Giulia Croce Butler ​ ​ Prime Minister Phuc attended the virtual G20 Summit that took place on November 21-22. This special conference focuses on Covid-19 and the response to a second wave of cases and their subsequent challenges. Leaders will evaluate cooperation efforts in regards to not only the pandemic, but also trade, investment, and sustainable development.[1]

Photo from Vietnam Net Global

PM Phuc spoke about recovery, employment, resilience, and sustainability during these challenging times, also emphasizing once again Vietnam’s and ASEAN’s commitment to fighting this global pandemic.

Furthermore, PM Phuc also participated in the 27th Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit on November 20, after the invitation of Malaysian PM

The Open Source Briefing 12 ​ Yassin. The virtual conference aimed at discussing trade, technology, and COVID-19 recovery plans.[2]

On November 20-22, U.S. National Security Adviser O'Brien paid an official visit to Vietnam to celebrate the 25th anniversary of the countries’ diplomatic ties.[3] This visit reinforces the willingness of the two countries to pursue a stronger relationship, which was also emphasized during Pompeo’s visit a few weeks ago.

Aircraft and Naval Tracking November 16: Twitter user CANUK78 reports that a Lockheed EP-3E ARIES II was tracked northeast of Taiwan over the East China Sea.[1] Twitter user CANKU78 reports that a Boeing P-8A Poseidon was tracked South of Taiwan.[2] Twitter user CANUK78 reports that a PLAF Shaanxi KJ-500 AEW&C was tracked west of Taiwan.[3] Twitter user CANUK78 reports that a Boeing C-40A Clipper was tracked traveling northwest of the Philippines.[4] Taiwan military officials report that a Y-8 ASW and Y-8 EW were tracked violating Taiwanese airspace southwest of the island nation.[5] Twitter user Aircraft Spots reports two USAF B-1Bs traveling from Guam to the East China Sea. KC-135Rs refueling tankers were also reported.[6] November 17: Twitter user CANUK78 reports that a Lockheed EP-3E Aries II was spotted South of Taiwan.[7] Twitter user CANUK78 reports that RC 135W Rivet Joint and KC-135R stratotanker were tracked south of Taiwan.[8] Twitter user CANUK78 reports that a Boeing P-8 Poseidon was tracked south of Taiwan.[9] Taiwanese officials report that a PLAF Y-8 ASW and Y-8 EW breached Taiwan airspace.[10] November 18: Taiwanese officials report that three PLAF aircraft, Y-8 ASW, Y-8 EW, and Y-9 EW violated Taiwanese airspace southwest of the island nation.[11] November 21: Taiwanese officials report that two PLAF aircraft, Y-8 RECCE, and Y-8 ASW, violated the airspace southwest of the island nation.[12] November 22: Twitter user CANUK78 reports that a Lockheed EP-3E ARIES II was tracked south of Taiwan.[13] Twitter user CANUK78 reports that a Boeing KC-135R stratotanker was tracked south of Taiwan.[14] Taiwanese officials report that a PLAF Y-8 ASW breached Taiwanese airspace southwest of the island nation.[15]

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United States Adamczyk, Ed. “Nimitz Strike Group Concludes Four-Nation Malabar Sea Exercises,” November 20, 2020. https://www.upi.com/Defense-News/2020/11/20/Nimitz-Strike-Group-concludes-four-nati on-Malabar-sea-exercises/8011605892298/.

Aya Ichihashi and Catlin Doornbos. | Stars and Stripes Published: November 19, 2020. “Marine Commandant, Japanese Prime Minister Pledge to 'Maintain the Deterrence' against China,” November 19, 2020. https://www.stripes.com/news/pacific/marine-commandant-japanese-prime-minister-ple dge-to-maintain-the-deterrence-against-china-1.652636.

By: Lt.j.g. Samuel Hardgrove, USS Barry. “USS Barry Returns to the South China Sea,” November 21, 2020. https://www.cpf.navy.mil/news.aspx/130772.

Gopal, Prakash. “Rebirth of the Quadrilateral Malabar: Promises and Portents for India,” October 27, 2020. https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/rebirth-quadrilateral-malabar-promises-and- portents-india.

LaGrone, Sam. “Navy Reestablishes U.S. 2nd Fleet to Face Russian Threat,” May 4, 2018. https://news.usni.org/2018/05/04/navy-reestablishes-2nd-fleet-plan-calls-for-250-person -command-in-norfolk.

Lee, YenNee. “'A Coup for China': Analysts React to the World's Largest Trade Deal That Excludes the U.S.,” November 16, 2020. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/16/rcep-15-asia-pacific-countries-including-china-sign-w orlds-largest-trade-deal.html.

“Nimitz Strike Group Concludes Malabar 2020 With Australia, India, Japan,” November 20, 2020. https://www.navy.mil/Press-Office/Press-Releases/display-pressreleases/Article/242215 7/nimitz-strike-group-concludes-malabar-2020-with-australia-india-japan/utm_source/twi tter/utm_medium/social/utm_content/100001652740279/linkId/100000021000388/.

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Pham, Linh. “O'Brien Meets with Vietnamese Government Leaders in Hanoi,” November 21, 2020. http://hanoitimes.vn/obrien-meets-with-vietnamese-government-leaders-in-hanoi-31492 6.html.

Trevithick, Joseph. “The Navy Wants To Stand Up A New Fleet Aimed At Deterring China In The Indian Ocean,” November 18, 2020. https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/37688/the-navy-wants-to-stand-up-a-new-fleet-a imed-at-detering-china-in-the-indian-ocean.

“U.S. Navy, Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force Conduct Mine Warfare Exercise,” November 20, 2020. https://www.navy.mil/Press-Office/Press-Releases/display-pressreleases/Article/242247 5/us-navy-japan-maritime-self-defense-force-conduct-mine-warfare-exercise/utm_sourc e/twitter/utm_medium/social/utm_content/100001652272975/linkId/100000020972352/.

Wu, Huizhong. “US, Taiwan Step up Economic Cooperation in New Dialogue,” November 21, 2020. https://apnews.com/article/global-trade-financial-markets-china-taipei-bilateral-trade-204 73f25562d37c58c4f554cefbb7df5?utm_medium=AP.

Ziezulewicz, Geoff. “SECNAV Calls for Standing up New Numbered Fleet in the Indo-Pacific,” November 19, 2020. https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2020/11/19/secnav-calls-for-standing-up-ne w-numbered-fleet-in-the-indo-pacific/?utm_campaign=Socialflow+DFN. https://twitter.com/PACAF/status/1329957602361364480 https://twitter.com/USNavy/status/1330123316082905088 https://twitter.com/is_keelu/status/1329737528539230210

China [1] Feng, J. (2020, November 17). Chinese soldiers storm beach in military landing drill amid Taiwan war tension. Retrieved November 22, 2020, from

The Open Source Briefing 15 ​ https://www.newsweek.com/chinese-soldiers-storm-beach-military-landing-drill-amid-tai wan-war-tension-1547910 [2] https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1328601391133241348?ref_src=twsrc%5Etf w%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1328601391133241348%7Ctwgr%5E&r ef_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.newsweek.com%2Fchinese-soldiers-storm-beach-militar y-landing-drill-amid-taiwan-war-tension-1547910 [3] Sharma, A. (2020, November 17). Watch: Chinese Navy (PLAN) Creates Multiple Records While Practicing 'Taiwan Invasion'. Retrieved November 22, 2020, from https://eurasiantimes.com/watch-chinese-navy-plan-creates-multiple-records-while-pract icing-taiwan-invasion/ [4] Everington, K. (2020, November 18). 2 US B1-B bombers penetrate China's ADIZ, near Taiwan. Retrieved November 22, 2020, from https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4055703 [5] Chan, M. (2020, November 19). Shooting down of mock missile a US warning to China, observers say. Retrieved November 22, 2020, from https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3110395/us-china-relations-shooting- down-mock-icbm-was-warning-beijing [6] World, N. (2020, November 20). China ships making complicated moves off Senkakus: NHK WORLD-JAPAN News. Retrieved November 22, 2020, from https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20201119_27/

Taiwan [1] Lu, T., Chi, C., & Lin, K. (2020, November 17). President honors fallen F-5E fighter pilot. Retrieved November 23, 2020, from https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202011170009 [2] Lendon, B. (2020, November 18). Taiwan grounds entire fleet of US-made F-16 fighter jets after crash. Retrieved November 23, 2020, from https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/18/asia/taiwan-fighter-jets-grounded-intl-hnk-scli-mil/index .html [3] Shumei, L. (2020, November 18). Blaming PLA for fighter jet missing an excuse for weak Taiwan military capacity. Retrieved November 23, 2020, from https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1207308.shtml [4] Lim, E., & Yang-Yu, W. (2020, November 20). MND condemns rumors of F-16's 'defection' spread on internet. Retrieved November 23, 2020, from https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202011200011

The Open Source Briefing 16 ​ [5] Chi, C., & Lim, E. (2020, November 21). General location of missing F-16 flight data recorder confirmed. Retrieved November 23, 2020, from https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202011210018 [6] Yu, M., & Lin, K. (2020, November 21). U.S. warship transits through Taiwan Strait. Retrieved November 23, 2020, from https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202011210015

Japan [1] https://twitter.com/jointstaffpa/status/1328503119970512896?s=20 [2] https://twitter.com/JapanJointStaff/status/1328873908641046530?s=20 [3] https://twitter.com/jointstaffpa/status/1329590284733345795?s=20 [4] https://twitter.com/ModJapan_en/status/1329668607794503681?s=20 [5] https://twitter.com/JMSDF_A_MF_HQ/status/1328873990782210048?s=20 [6] Kevin, Gen, and B Schneider. Trilateral CHOD Video Teleconference. 19 Nov. 2020. [7] Yamaguchi, Mari. “Australia, Japan to Bolster Defense Ties amid China’s Rise.” News.Yahoo.com, 17 Nov. 2020, news.yahoo.com [8] IBID [9] Kyodo. “Japan Had Plans to Sail MSDF Ship near Chinese-Held Islet in South China Sea.” The Japan Times, 21 Nov. 2020, www.japantimes.co.jp. Accessed 23 Nov. 2020.

Philippines Perez-Rubio, Bella. “DOE urged to advise Filipino firms to continue West Philippine Sea exploration even without China”. The Philippine Star. 20 November 2020. https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2020/11/20/2058261/doe-urged-advise-filipino-firms- continue-wps-exploration-even-without-china accessed 21 Nov 2020.

Mangosing, Frances. “Philippines, South Korea navies hold joint maritime drills”. Inquirer. 18 November 2020. https://globalnation.inquirer.net/192199/philippines-south-korea-navies-hold-joint-mariti me-drills accessed 19 Nov 2020.

Republic of Korea Navy. ROKN and PN PASSEX. Facebook. 17 November 2020, 1451H. https://www.facebook.com/ilovenavy/photos/pcb.3484299401684468/34842988383511 91/ Accessed 21 Nov 2020.

The Open Source Briefing 17 ​ Yonhap. “Navy kicks off scaled-down monthlong cruise training over pandemic”. The Korea Herald. 14 October 2020. http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20201014000465 Accessed 21 Nov 2020.

Nepomuceno, Priam. “Navy ship conducts passing exercise with SoKor counterparts”. Philippine News Agency. 18 November 2020. https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1122151 Accessed 19 Nov 2020.

Mangosing, Frances. “PH getting $18M in smart bombs from US, says Lorenzana”. Inquirer. 18 November 2020. https://globalnation.inquirer.net/192192/ph-getting-18m-in-smart-bombs-from-us-says-lo renzana Accessed 21 Nov 2020.

Sadongdong, Martin. “PH procures $18-M smart bombs from US”. Manila Bulletin. 18 November 2020. https://mb.com.ph/2020/11/18/ph-procures-18-m-smart-bombs-from-us/ Accessed 21 Nov 2020,

Sadongdong, Martin. “Lorenzana wants 6 additional Super Tucano planes for Air Force”. Manila Bulletin. 14 October 2020. https://mb.com.ph/2020/10/14/lorenzana-wants-6-additional-super-tucano-planes-for-air -force/ Accessed 21 Nov 2020.

Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the PRC. “Memorandum of Understanding on Cooperation on Oil and Gas Development between the Government of the People’s Republic of China and the Government of the Republic of the Philippines”. FMPRC. 27 November 2020. https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/wjdt_665385/2649_665393/t1616644.shtml Accessed 20 Nov 2020.

Hayton, Bill. “China’s Pressure Costs Vietnam $1 Billion in the South China Sea”. The Diplomat. 22 July 2020. https://thediplomat.com/2020/07/chinas-pressure-costs-vietnam-1-billion-in-the-south-ch ina-sea/ Accessed 21 Nov 2020

Mangosing, Frances. “Duterte ban on PH military in South China Sea drills elates China”. Inquirer. 6 August 2020.

The Open Source Briefing 18 ​ https://globalnation.inquirer.net/190058/duterte-ban-on-ph-military-in-south-china-sea-dr ills-elates-china Accessed 20 Nov 2020.

Vietnam [1] “PM to attend online G20 Summit, APEC Summit.” Vietnam Net Global, November 21, 2020. https://vietnamnet.vn/en/politics/pm-to-attend-online-g20-summit-690188.html [2] Ibid. [3] “US National Security Adviser O'Brien to visit VN this week.” Vietnam Net Global, November 20, 2020.

Aircraft and Naval Tracking [1] https://twitter.com/is_keelu/status/1328477383427563520?s=20 [2] https://twitter.com/is_keelu/status/1328498821253500928?s=20 [3] https://twitter.com/is_keelu/status/1328497651579498496?s=20 [4] https://twitter.com/is_keelu/status/1328511713772187654?s=20 [5] 國防部 Ministry of National Defense, R.O.C. on Twitter. https://twitter.com/MoNDefense/status/1328278495227564034 [6] https://twitter.com/AircraftSpots/status/1328514712636538880?s=20 [7] https://twitter.com/is_keelu/status/1328860269049745409?s=20 [8] https://twitter.com/is_keelu/status/1328863750808612870?s=20 [9] https://twitter.com/is_keelu/status/1328908123730546688?s=20 [10] https://twitter.com/MoNDefense/status/1328643684221419520 [11] https://twitter.com/MoNDefense/status/1329009166250176512?s=20 [12] https://twitter.com/MoNDefense/status/1330108404753440769?s=20 [13] https://twitter.com/is_keelu/status/1330669865145950214?s=20 [14] https://twitter.com/is_keelu/status/1330661261810528262?s=20 [15] https://twitter.com/MoNDefense/status/1330454581076221953?s=20

The Open Source Briefing 19 ​