RP12/69 US Elections 2012 RESEARCH PAPER 12/69 16 November 2012 Barack Obama won the US Presidential Election of 6 November 2012. The Democrat defeated the Republican candidate Mitt Romney. Provisional voting statistics suggest that Obama won 50.6% of the popular vote to Romney’s 47.8%. Obama is projected to have secured 332 Electoral College votes, to Romney’s 206. Elections were held on the same day for the US House of Representatives, one third of the US Senate, and for eleven state governorships. Democrats won a majority of seats in the Senate, and Republicans won a majority of the House of Representatives. Control of both chambers remains unchanged. Tom Rutherford Matthew Keep Mark Taylor SOCIAL AND GENERAL STATISTICS Jeremy Hardacre STATISTICS RESOURCE UNIT HOUSE OF COMMONS LIBRARY RP12/69 Research Papers are available as PDF files: • to members of the general public on the Parliamentary web site, URL: http://www.parliament.uk • within Parliament to users of the Parliamentary Intranet, URL: http://hcl1.hclibrary.parliament.uk Library Research Papers are compiled for the benefit of Members of Parliament and their personal staff. Authors are available to discuss the contents of these papers with Members and their staff but cannot advise members of the general public. We welcome comments on our papers; these should be sent to the Research Publications Officer, Room 407, 1 Derby Gate, London, SW1A 2DG or e-mailed to [email protected] ISSN 1368-8456 RP12/69 Summary of main points • Democratic candidate President Barack Obama won the US Presidential Election of 6 November 2012, defeating the Republican candidate Governor Mitt Romney • Provisional voting statistics suggest that Obama won 50.6% of the popular vote to Romney’s 47.8% • Obama is projected to have secured 332 Electoral College votes, to Romney’s 206 • Obama won 26 states plus the District of Columbia, all of which he held from his 2008 victory. Of the 28 states that Obama won in 2008, Romney won Indiana, and North Carolina • Exit poll data show that Obama performed particularly well among young voters, women and Hispanics. He won almost unanimous support from Black voters • Slightly fewer people voted in 2012 than in the 2008 Presidential election • Elections were held on the same day for one third of the US Senate, US House of Representatives and for eleven state governorships • Democrats won a majority of seats in the Senate, and Republicans won a majority of the House of Representatives Note on data sources and accuracy The election results in this paper are as reported by the Associated Press on Tuesday 13 November 2012. They are not complete and should be considered indicative only. Some further ballots have been collated since that date but others remain outstanding. The official results will be published by the Federal Election Commission, Hwww.fec.govH Historical data are those published by the Federal Election Commission and the US Census Bureau, Hwww.census.govH The analysis of voting by social characteristics uses data from the Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International exit poll used by the National Election Pool, a consortium of ABC News, Associated Press, CBS News, CNN, Fox News and NBC News. Data are available on the CNN website: Hhttp://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2012/H RP12/69 CONTENTS I Results 6 A. Presidential election 6 1. National votes cast 6 2. Electoral College 7 3. Votes by state 9 4. States changing hands 11 5. Swing States 11 6. Change in share of the vote 13 B. Senate elections 14 C. House of Representatives elections 16 D. State Governor elections 17 E. Ballot initiatives 17 II Analysis of Presidential Election result 19 A. Exit poll 19 1. How different social groups voted in 2012 19 2. Political issues affecting voter choice 22 B. The Electoral College winning post 24 III The campaign 25 A. Campaign timeline 25 B. Opinion polls 26 1. Opinion poll trends 26 2. State-level opinion polls 26 IV Historical context 28 A. US Presidential Elections 1960-2012 28 B. Turnout 32 V Background 33 RP12/69 A. Presidential election 33 1. Candidates 33 2. The Electoral College 34 3. Electoral College vote, 17 December 2012 36 4. Confirmation of the election results by Congress, 7 January 2013 36 5. Inauguration Day, 20/21 January 2013 37 B. Congressional elections 37 1. Senate 37 2. House of Representatives 37 3. 113th Congress 38 VI Appendices 39 1. APPENDIX 1 39 2. APPENDIX 2 41 3. APPENDIX 3 43 4. APPENDIX 4 53 5. APPENDIX 5 55 RP 12/69 I Results A. Presidential election The Democratic candidate, Barack Obama, was elected for a second term as the 44th President of the United States, defeating the Republican candidate, Mitt Romney. 1. National votes cast Results collated so far suggest that Barack Obama won approximately 50.6% of the popular vote, to Mitt Romney’s 47.8%. Other candidates, including Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Jill Stein, won a combined 1.6%. US Presidential Election 2012: votes cast summary Candidate Running mate Party Votes % vote Barack Obama Joe Biden Democratic 62,280,959 50.6% Mitt Romney Paul Ryan Republican 58,899,127 47.8% Gary Johnson Jim Gray Libertarian 1,201,182 1.0% Jill Stein Cheri Honkala Green 426,084 0.3% Virgil Goode Jim Clymer Constitution 117,899 0.1% Other 201,553 0.2% Total 123,126,804 100.0% Popular vote Romney 47.8% Obama 50.6% Others 1.6% • Obama is the second Democratic candidate (after Bill Clinton) to win re-election to a second full term since World War 2. He is the only candidate of either party since WW2 to win a second term by a narrower margin than his first. • Obama is the first Democrat since Franklin D. Roosevelt to win two presidential elections with more than 50% of the popular vote 6 RP 12/69 2. Electoral College The US President and Vice President are not elected directly by popular vote, but are chosen instead by a majority vote of presidential electors, known collectively as the Electoral College. Each state is allocated a number of electors equal to the total number of its Senators and Representatives in Congress. The District of Columbia is allocated the same number as the least populous states, currently three. In 48 of America’s 50 states, and in the District of Columbia, Electoral College votes are awarded on a “winner-take-all” basis, with the party slate that wins the most popular votes providing all the electors for that state. The exceptions are Maine and Nebraska, where two electors are chosen by state-wide popular vote and the remainder by popular vote in each congressional district. In total, the Electoral College comprises 538 members, so to be elected, a candidate must win at least 270 Electoral College votes. For further details on the operation of the Electoral College, please see section V.A.2 (page 34). US Presidential Election 2012: projected distribution of Electoral College votes Democrat Republican State ECVs State ECVs California 55 Alabama 9 Colorado 9 Alaska 3 Connecticut 7 Arizona 11 Delaware 3 Arkansas 6 District of Columbia 3 Georgia 16 Florida 29 Idaho 4 Hawaii 4 Indiana 11 Illinois 20 Kansas 6 Iowa 6 Kentucky 8 Maine 4 Louisiana 8 Maryland 10 Mississippi 6 Massachusetts 11 Missouri 10 Michigan 16 Montana 3 Minnesota 10 Nebraska 5 Nevada 6 North Carolina 15 New Hampshire 4 North Dakota 3 New Jersey 14 Oklahoma 7 New Mexico 5 South Carolina 9 New York 29 South Dakota 3 Ohio 18 Tennessee 11 Oregon 7 Texas 38 Pennsylvania 20 Utah 6 Rhode Island 4 West Virginia 5 Verm ont 3 Wyom ing 3 Virginia 13 Washington 12 Wisconsin 10 Democrat total 332 Republican total 206 7 RP 12/69 Based on states won, current projections suggest that Obama will win 332 Electoral College votes, to Romney’s 206. Electoral College Votes Romney, 206 Obama, 332 • Obama’s Electoral College votes total will be lower than his 2008 total, but higher than that of any other candidate since Bill Clinton won 379 votes in 1996. The map below shows the projected distribution of Electoral College votes by state, with states resized in proportion to their number of Electoral College votes. Geographically large states with small populations (and thus small numbers of Representatives), such as Montana and Wyoming, shrink in size, while geographically small but populous states, such as Massachusetts and New Jersey, appear larger. Presidential election winner by state, resized by electoral votes Credit: Mark Newman, Univ. of Michigan. Reproduced under Creative Commons Licence 8 RP 12/69 3. Votes by state Barack Obama won the popular vote in 26 states, plus the District of Columbia. Mitt Romney won 24 states. US Presidential Election 2012: results by state % vote % vote State Result Obama Romney State Result Obama Romney Alabama Rep hold 38.4% 60.7% Missouri Rep hold 44.3% 53.9% Alaska Rep hold 41.6% 55.0% Montana Rep hold 42.9% 56.7% Arizona Rep hold 44.1% 54.2% Nebraska Rep hold 37.8% 60.5% Arkansas Rep hold 36.9% 60.5% Nevada Dem hold 52.3% 45.7% California Dem hold 59.2% 38.4% New Hampshire Dem hold 52.2% 46.4% Colorado Dem hold 51.4% 46.7% New Jersey Dem hold 58.0% 40.9% Connecticut Dem hold 58.4% 40.4% New Mexico Dem hold 52.9% 43.0% Delaware Dem hold 58.6% 40.0% New York Dem hold 62.6% 36.0% D.C.