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US Elections 2012 RESEARCH PAPER 12/69 16 November 2012

Barack Obama won the US Presidential Election of 6 November 2012. The Democrat defeated the Republican candidate .

Provisional voting statistics suggest that Obama won 50.6% of the popular vote to Romney’s 47.8%.

Obama is projected to have secured 332 Electoral College votes, to Romney’s 206.

Elections were held on the same day for the US House of Representatives, one third of the US Senate, and for eleven state governorships.

Democrats won a majority of seats in the Senate, and Republicans won a majority of the House of Representatives. Control of both chambers remains unchanged.

Tom Rutherford Matthew Keep Mark Taylor SOCIAL AND GENERAL STATISTICS

Jeremy Hardacre STATISTICS RESOURCE UNIT

HOUSE OF COMMONS LIBRARY

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Research Papers are available as PDF files:

• to members of the general public on the Parliamentary web site, URL: http://www.parliament.uk • within Parliament to users of the Parliamentary Intranet, URL: http://hcl1.hclibrary.parliament.uk

Library Research Papers are compiled for the benefit of Members of Parliament and their personal staff. Authors are available to discuss the contents of these papers with Members and their staff but cannot advise members of the general public. We welcome comments on our papers; these should be sent to the Research Publications Officer, Room 407, 1 Derby Gate, London, SW1A 2DG or e-mailed to [email protected]

ISSN 1368-8456

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Summary of main points

• Democratic candidate President won the US Presidential Election of 6 November 2012, defeating the Republican candidate Governor Mitt Romney

• Provisional voting statistics suggest that Obama won 50.6% of the popular vote to Romney’s 47.8%

• Obama is projected to have secured 332 Electoral College votes, to Romney’s 206

• Obama won 26 states plus the District of Columbia, all of which he held from his 2008 victory. Of the 28 states that Obama won in 2008, Romney won Indiana, and

• Exit poll data show that Obama performed particularly well among young voters, women and Hispanics. He won almost unanimous support from Black voters

• Slightly fewer people voted in 2012 than in the 2008 Presidential election

• Elections were held on the same day for one third of the US Senate, US House of Representatives and for eleven state governorships

• Democrats won a majority of seats in the Senate, and Republicans won a majority of the House of Representatives

Note on data sources and accuracy

The election results in this paper are as reported by the Associated Press on Tuesday 13 November 2012. They are not complete and should be considered indicative only. Some further ballots have been collated since that date but others remain outstanding.

The official results will be published by the Federal Election Commission, Hwww.fec.govH

Historical data are those published by the Federal Election Commission and the US Census Bureau, Hwww.census.govH

The analysis of voting by social characteristics uses data from the Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International exit poll used by the National Election Pool, a consortium of ABC News, Associated Press, CBS News, CNN, Fox News and NBC News. Data are available on the CNN website: Hhttp://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2012/H

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CONTENTS

I Results 6

A. Presidential election 6

1. National votes cast 6 2. Electoral College 7 3. Votes by state 9 4. States changing hands 11 5. Swing States 11 6. Change in share of the vote 13 B. Senate elections 14

C. House of Representatives elections 16

D. State Governor elections 17

E. Ballot initiatives 17

II Analysis of Presidential Election result 19

A. Exit poll 19

1. How different social groups voted in 2012 19 2. Political issues affecting voter choice 22 B. The Electoral College winning post 24

III The campaign 25

A. Campaign timeline 25

B. Opinion polls 26

1. Opinion poll trends 26 2. State-level opinion polls 26 IV Historical context 28

A. US Presidential Elections 1960-2012 28

B. Turnout 32

V Background 33

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A. Presidential election 33

1. Candidates 33 2. The Electoral College 34 3. Electoral College vote, 17 December 2012 36 4. Confirmation of the election results by Congress, 7 January 2013 36 5. Inauguration Day, 20/21 January 2013 37 B. Congressional elections 37

1. Senate 37 2. House of Representatives 37 3. 113th Congress 38 VI Appendices 39

1. APPENDIX 1 39 2. APPENDIX 2 41 3. APPENDIX 3 43 4. APPENDIX 4 53 5. APPENDIX 5 55

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I Results

A. Presidential election

The Democratic candidate, Barack Obama, was elected for a second term as the 44th President of the , defeating the Republican candidate, Mitt Romney.

1. National votes cast

Results collated so far suggest that Barack Obama won approximately 50.6% of the popular vote, to Mitt Romney’s 47.8%. Other candidates, including Libertarian and Green , won a combined 1.6%.

US Presidential Election 2012: votes cast summary

Candidate Running mate Party Votes % vote

Barack Obama Democratic 62,280,959 50.6% Mitt Romney Republican 58,899,127 47.8% Gary Johnson Libertarian 1,201,182 1.0% Jill Stein Green 426,084 0.3% Virgil Goode Jim Clymer Constitution 117,899 0.1% Other 201,553 0.2% Total 123,126,804 100.0%

Popular vote

Romney 47.8% Obama 50.6%

Others 1.6%

• Obama is the second Democratic candidate (after ) to win re-election to a second full term since World War 2. He is the only candidate of either party since WW2 to win a second term by a narrower margin than his first. • Obama is the first Democrat since Franklin D. Roosevelt to win two presidential elections with more than 50% of the popular vote

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2. Electoral College

The US President and Vice President are not elected directly by popular vote, but are chosen instead by a majority vote of presidential electors, known collectively as the Electoral College. Each state is allocated a number of electors equal to the total number of its Senators and Representatives in Congress. The District of Columbia is allocated the same number as the least populous states, currently three.

In 48 of America’s 50 states, and in the District of Columbia, Electoral College votes are awarded on a “winner-take-all” basis, with the party slate that wins the most popular votes providing all the electors for that state. The exceptions are Maine and Nebraska, where two electors are chosen by state-wide popular vote and the remainder by popular vote in each congressional district.

In total, the Electoral College comprises 538 members, so to be elected, a candidate must win at least 270 Electoral College votes. For further details on the operation of the Electoral College, please see section V.A.2 (page 34).

US Presidential Election 2012: projected distribution of Electoral College votes

Democrat Republican State ECVs State ECVs

California 55 Alabama 9 Colorado 9 Alaska 3 Connecticut 7 11 Delaware 3 Arkansas 6 District of Columbia 3 Georgia 16 Florida 29 Idaho 4 Hawaii 4 Indiana 11 Illinois 20 Kansas 6 Iowa 6 Kentucky 8 Maine 4 Louisiana 8 10 Mississippi 6 Massachusetts 11 Missouri 10 Michigan 16 Montana 3 10 Nebraska 5 Nevada 6 North Carolina 15 New Hampshire 4 North Dakota 3 14 Oklahoma 7 New Mexico 5 South Carolina 9 New York 29 South Dakota 3 Ohio 18 11 Oregon 7 38 Pennsylvania 20 Utah 6 Rhode Island 4 West 5 Verm ont 3 Wyom ing 3 Virginia 13 12 Wisconsin 10

Democrat total 332 Republican total 206

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Based on states won, current projections suggest that Obama will win 332 Electoral College votes, to Romney’s 206.

Electoral College Votes

Romney, 206 Obama, 332

• Obama’s Electoral College votes total will be lower than his 2008 total, but higher than that of any other candidate since Bill Clinton won 379 votes in 1996.

The map below shows the projected distribution of Electoral College votes by state, with states resized in proportion to their number of Electoral College votes. Geographically large states with small populations (and thus small numbers of Representatives), such as Montana and Wyoming, shrink in size, while geographically small but populous states, such as Massachusetts and New Jersey, appear larger.

Presidential election winner by state, resized by electoral votes

Credit: Mark Newman, Univ. of Michigan. Reproduced under Creative Commons Licence

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3. Votes by state

Barack Obama won the popular vote in 26 states, plus the District of Columbia. Mitt Romney won 24 states.

US Presidential Election 2012: results by state

% vote % vote State Result Obama Romney State Result Obama Romney

Alabama Rep hold 38.4% 60.7% Missouri Rep hold 44.3% 53.9% Alaska Rep hold 41.6% 55.0% Montana Rep hold 42.9% 56.7% Arizona Rep hold 44.1% 54.2% Nebraska Rep hold 37.8% 60.5% Arkansas Rep hold 36.9% 60.5% Nevada Dem hold 52.3% 45.7% California Dem hold 59.2% 38.4% New Hampshire Dem hold 52.2% 46.4% Colorado Dem hold 51.4% 46.7% New Jersey Dem hold 58.0% 40.9% Connecticut Dem hold 58.4% 40.4% New Mexico Dem hold 52.9% 43.0% Delaware Dem hold 58.6% 40.0% New York Dem hold 62.6% 36.0% D.C. Dem hold 92.2% 7.2% North Carolina Rep gain 48.4% 50.6% Florida Dem hold 50.0% 49.1% North Dakota Rep hold 38.9% 58.7% Georgia Rep hold 45.4% 53.4% Ohio Dem hold 50.2% 48.3% Hawaii Dem hold 70.6% 27.8% Oklahoma Rep hold 33.2% 66.8% Idaho Rep hold 32.7% 64.8% Oregon Dem hold 54.4% 42.7% Illinois Dem hold 57.3% 41.1% Pennsylvania Dem hold 52.0% 46.8% Indiana Rep gain 43.8% 54.3% Rhode Island Dem hold 62.7% 35.5% Iowa Dem hold 52.2% 46.5% South Carolina Rep hold 44.0% 54.6% Kansas Rep hold 37.8% 60.0% South Dakota Rep hold 39.9% 57.9% Kentucky Rep hold 37.8% 60.5% Tennessee Rep hold 39.0% 59.5% Louisiana Rep hold 40.7% 58.0% Texas Rep hold 41.4% 57.2% Maine Dem hold 56.0% 40.9% Utah Rep hold 24.9% 73.0% Maryland Dem hold 61.7% 36.6% Vermont Dem hold 67.0% 31.2% Massachusetts Dem hold 60.8% 37.6% Virginia Dem hold 50.8% 47.8% Michigan Dem hold 54.3% 44.8% Washington Dem hold 55.9% 41.7% Minnesota Dem hold 52.8% 45.1% West Virginia Rep hold 35.5% 62.3% Mississippi Rep hold 43.5% 55.6% Wisconsin Dem hold 52.7% 46.0% Wyoming Rep hold 28.0% 69.3%

• Barack Obama won over 92% of the vote in the District of Columbia and over 70% in Hawaii • Obama won over 50% of the vote in 26 states plus the District of Columbia • Mitt Romney won over 50% of the vote in 24 states, including Utah, where he won 73%, and Wyoming, where he won 69% • A relative absence of strong third-party candidates contributed to every state being won with 50%+ of the vote.

Full state-by-state Presidential Election results are in Appendix I (page 39).

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4. States changing hands

Romney won all 22 states won by Republican candidate John McCain in 2008. He also won two states won by President Obama in 2008, and secured all 5 electoral votes in Nebraska, which had split its vote 4-1 in favour of McCain in 2008. The table and map below detail the results in those states.

US Presidential Election 2012: results in states that changed hands

% vote 2012 Romney % vote 2008 Obama Change 2008-12 State Obama Romney lead Obama McCain lead Dem Rep

Indiana 43.8% 54.3% +10.5% 49.9% 49.0% 0.9% -6.1% +5.3% North Carolina 48.4% 50.6% +2.2% 49.9% 49.5% 0.4% -1.5% +1.1%

Full state-by-state Presidential Election results are in Appendix I (page 39).

5. Swing States

The existence of the Electoral College, and the “Winner takes all” model of allocating electoral votes in most states means that there is an incentive for campaigns to concentrate their efforts in only a few “swing” states where polling and history suggests that either side has a realistic chance of winning.

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The list of swing states for each election emerges on a de facto basis, and can change as the campaign progresses. For example, at the start of the campaign, Wisconsin was considered a relatively solid (non-swing) Democratic state. However, Mr Romney’s selection of Paul ryan, a Wisconsin congressman as his vice-Presidential running-mate All of the states considered swing states in 2012 were won by President Obama in 2008. Of the two which changed hands, Indiana was not considered a swing state, as it was widely thought that it would revert to the historical trend of voting Republican. Of the swing states listed in the table below, Romney was able to win only North Carolina, with all the remaining swing states remaining Democratic.

2012 Presidential election - Swing States

Obama Romney Obama State Share Share Margin Colorado 51.4% 46.7% +4.7% Flor ida 50.0% 49.1% +0.9% Iowa 52.2% 46.5% +5.7% Nevada 52.3% 45.7% +6.6% New Hampshire 52.2% 46.4% +5.8% North Carolina 48.4% 50.6% -2.2% Ohio 50.2% 48.3% +1.9% Pennsylvania 52.0% 46.8% +5.1% Virginia 50.8% 47.8% +3.1% Wisconsin 52.7% 46.0% +6.7%

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6. Change in share of the vote

The chart below shows the percentage point change in the Democrat share of the vote between 2008 and 2012 by state: Us Presidential Election 2012: Change in Democratic Share of Vote, by State

Utah West Virginia Indiana North Dakota Missouri South Dakota Wyoming Illinois Montana New Mexico Kansas Wisconsin Nebraska Idaho Delaware Kentucky Michigan Nevada Tennessee Pennsylvania Oregon Texas United States Connecticut New Hampshire Colorado Arkansas California Iowa Maine Georgia Washington Virginia North Carolina Minnesota Massachusetts Hawaii Oklahoma Arizona South Carolina Ohio Florida District of Columbia Alabama Rhode Island Vermont Maryland New York Louisiana Mississippi New Jersey Alaska ‐10.0% ‐8.0% ‐6.0% ‐4.0% ‐2.0% +0.0% +2.0% +4.0% +6.0% +8.0% • The Democrats increased share of the vote in seven states relative to 2008: Vermont, Maryland, New York, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey and Alaska • The biggest increase Republican vote share was in Utah, with its very large Mormon population, followed by West Virginia and Indiana.

Full state-by-state Presidential Election results are in Appendix I (page 39).

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B. Senate elections

Elections were held for 33 of the 100 seats in the US Senate. Prior to the elections, Democrats held 21 of the 33 seats in play, while Republicans held 10. Two seats were held by Independents, although both of these caucused with the Democrats1. • Democrats won 22 of the 33 seats, gaining three seats (Connecticut from Independent, Indiana and Massachusetts from Republicans) and losing one (Nebraska) • Republicans won 9 seats, gaining 1 from Democrats, losing 2 to Democrats, and losing 1 to Independent (Maine)

US Senate Elections 2012: results summary

Pre- Election Post- election result Change election

Democrat 51 23 +2 53 Republican 47 8 -2 45 Independent2202

• The Democrats will hold a majority of seats in the Senate. Of the two Independent Senators, Bernie Sanders (Vermont) has previously caucused with the Democrats. Newly elected Senator Angus King (Maine) has yet to make his intentions known with regard to which party he will caucus with.

• Even if the independents were both to caucus with the Democrats, this bloc would be short of the 60-seat supermajority required to invoke “cloture”2 and ensure that debates could not be filibustered by the Republican minority.

Further detailed information on the US Senate is contained in section V.B.1 (page 37).

Detailed Senate election results by state are contained in Appendix 2 (page 41).

1 Caucasing with a party means that independents are treated as members of that party for the purposes of committee assignments and other senate business. 2 Cloture refers to the procedure for limiting debate, and bringing a measure for a final vote

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House of Representatives elections

Elections were held for all 435 seats in the US House of Representatives. Owing to the effects of redistricting in the majority of states, seat-for-seat comparisons and the number of seats “gained” or “lost” by parties cannot be made.

• Republicans have won 234 seats, down from 242 at the last (2010) election, and Democrats 197 (up from 193 in 2010). • Four seats contested on 4 November remain uncalled: Arizona 02, California 07, Florida 18 and North Carolina 07. All were previously held by Republicans.

US House Elections 2012: results summary

Previous Election election result Change

Republican 242 234 -8 Democrat 193 197 +4 Not called 0 4 +4

House composition

Not called, 4

Republican, Democrat, 234 197

• Currently available data suggest that the Democrats won 49.0% of the national vote, compared with 48.2% for the Republicans • 13 seats were uncontested, comprising 4 Democrat and 9 Republican

Further detailed information on the House of Representatives Elections is contained in section V.B.2 (page 37).

Detailed House of Representative election results by state and district are contained in Appendix 3 (page 43).

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C. State Governor elections

Elections for State Governor were held in 11 states.

• The only change of party occurred in North Carolina, where Republican Pat McCrory won the election to replace retiring Democrat Bev Perdue. • No incumbent governors standing for re-election were defeated • Four retiring or term limited governors (one Republican and 3 Democrats) were replaced by members of their own party. • After those elected on November 6th are sworn into office, there will be 30 Republicans, 19 Democrats and 1 Independent governor.

US State Governor Elections 2012: results summary

Pre- Election Post- election result Change election

Democrat 20 7 -1 19 Republican 29 4 +1 30 Independent1001

Detailed State Governor election results are contained in Appendix 4 (page 53).

D. Ballot initiatives

It is estimated that 176 state-wide ballot propositions were voted on in 38 different states on 6 November 2012.3 The results included:

• Colorado and Massachusetts passed measures legalizing the recreational, as well as medical use of marijuana. • Massachusetts rejected a measure allowing terminally ill, mentally competent adults to request and receive a lethal dose of medication. • Same-sex marriage was legalized in Maine, Maryland and Washington state. • Washington passed a measure which allows mentally competent, terminally ill adults to request and self-administer a lethal overdose of medication • Arizona voters rejected a measure which would have asserted the state’s sovereignty over natural resources and landscapes, including the Grand Canyon

Detailed voting information for selected ballot measures is contained in Appendix 5 (page 54).

3 www.ballotpedia.org

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II Analysis of Presidential Election result

A. Exit poll

This section uses data from the Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International exit poll used by the National Election Pool, a consortium of ABC News, Associated Press, CBS News, CNN, Fox News and NBC News.

In total, more than 50,000 people were interviewed on polling day, with a further 10,000 early voters interviewed by telephone the week before.4 The data are subject to a weighting process designed to result in data that best reflect the actual voting population. It should, however, be noted that they are subject to a degree of error.

1. How different social groups voted in 2012

The heights of the bars in the charts below are proportional to the group’s estimated share of the voting population. The figures in brackets show that share. Historical comparisons are based on the New York Times archive.5

Key: Obama RomneyMcCain

a. Gender

• Estimates suggest that Barack Obama won the popular vote among women but lost among men • His lead among women was 11%, compared with a 7% deficit among men

• Archive data suggest Republicans have won the male vote at every election since 1992, with the exception of 2008. • The Democrats have won the female vote at each election since 1992

b. Age

• Obama won three-fifths of the vote among those aged under 30 • The older a voter was, the more likely they were to vote for Romney, with the Republican winning the 65+ age group by 12 points

4 See http://www.exit-poll.net/ and http://surveys.ap.org/exitpolls/ 5 http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/national-exit-polls.html

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c. Race

• Obama won near-unanimous support in Black voters and nearly three-quarters of Hispanic votes • Romney won majority support by White voters. Whites made up 72% of voters in 2012, down from 89% in 1980

• The Republican candidate has won the White vote at each election since 1972, the first year for which data are readily available. The Democratic candidate has won a majority of both Black and Hispanic votes at each election

d. Religion

• Romney won a majority of Protestant votes. Obama won amongst Catholics, Jews, other religions and voters of no religion. • Romney won among those who attend a religious service at least once per week. Obama won among those who attend services occasionally or never.

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e. Income

• President Obama won support from nearly two thirds of voters in the lowest income bracket. In general, richer voters were more likely to vote for Mr Romney.

f. Education

• Obama won more votes than Romney across all education categories but one – those with undergraduate but not postgraduate degrees.

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g. Urban/rural

• Obama won a majority of the vote in urban areas while Romney won in rural areas

2. Political issues affecting voter choice a. Most important issues: the economy, healthcare, and foreign policy

• 59% of voters thought the economy was the most important issue in the election, of the choices offered by the exit pollsters. This group voted for Mitt Romney, but by a relatively narrow margin. Voters who thought the federal budget deficit was the most important issue voted for Mitt Romney by 2 to 1. • Voters who thought that either healthcare or foreign policy was the most important issue in the election voted for President Obama by large margins.

b. Political affiliation and ideology

• Party affiliation was a strong predictor of voting behaviour, with 93% of Republicans voting for Romney and 92% of Democrats voting for Obama. Those with no party affiliation preferred Romney to Obama by a narrow margin.

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• Overall political ideology was a relatively strong factor in voting behaviour, but less so than party identification. More than 80% of self-defined Liberals and Conservatives voted for Obama and Romney respectively. Obama won the “moderate” vote by 15 points.

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B. The Electoral College winning post

The Electoral College system means that the candidate who wins the popular vote does not necessarily win the Presidency. The most recent example of this was the 2000 Presidential Election, when Democratic candidate Al Gore won 531,000 votes more than Republican George W Bush but lost the Electoral College vote by 271 to 266.6

The chart below plots the results of the Presidential Election by state, ordered left to right by Barack Obama’s lead in the share of the vote. The bars show the cumulative Electoral College votes secured at each point, with the lighter colours showing the marginal additions for that state. 600 Cumulative electoral votes by State

500

400

300 269 Electoral Votes

200

100

0 York Ohio Utah Iowa

Texas Idaho Island

Maine Alaska Illinois Jersey Hawaii Kansas Florida

Dakota Dakota Indiana Virginia Nevada Mexico Virginia Oregon

Arizona Georgia

Carolina Carolina Missouri Alabama

Vermont Arkansas Montana Colorado Kentucky Michigan Louisiana Nebraska Columbia Delaware Wyoming New Maryland California

Oklahoma Wisconsin Tennessee Minnesota Mississippi Hampshire New

Washington of Connecticut New

Rhode Pennsylvania West North South South North Massachusetts New

District • Obama reached 272 Electoral College votes, past the “winning post” of 270, with states he won by at least 4.2%, his lead in Colorado. Assuming uniform national swing against the actual result, this suggests he could have won the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote by 48.5% to 50.0%, a deficit of 1.5%

6 A further ‘faithless elector’ for the District of Columbia, pledged for Gore, cast no vote in protest at the lack of statehood for the District

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III The campaign

A. Campaign timeline

Campaign timeline

January 2012 3 January Iow a Caucuses: Republican contest reported as a virtual tie, later a very narrow victory for 4 January suspends her campaign, having finished 6th in Iow a 10 January New Hampshire Primary w on by Mitt Romney 19 January w ithdraw s from race, and endorses New t Gingrich 21 January South Carolina Republican primary w on by New t Gingrich 31 January Florida Republican primary w on by Mitt Romney February 2012 7 February Missouri Primary w on by Rick Santorum 28 February Mitt Romney w ins primaries in Arizona and Michigan March 2012 6 March "Super Tuesday" - Mitt Romney w ins six state primaries, to 3 for Santorum and one (Georgia) for Gingrich

27 March New t Gingrich scales back campaign, but promises to continue fighting for the nomination to the Republican National Convention April 2012 3 April Barack Obama, having faced no serious opposition, is confirmed as the Democratic nominee for re- election 10 April Rick Santorum suspends his campaign 25 April Republican National Committee declares Mitt Romney the "presumptive nominee" May 2012 2 May New t Gingrich formally suspends his campaign, and endorses Mitt Romney 5 May Gary Johnson w ins the presidential nomination of the Libertarian Party June 2012

July 2012 26 July On tour of Europe and Middle East, Mitt Romney makes comments perceived as critical regarding preparedness of London to host 2012 Olympic and Paralympic games August 2012 11 August Congressman Paul Ryan, of Wisconsin, is announced as Mitt Romney's running-mate. Mr Ryan is w idely seen as the leading light behind a controversial budget plan to convert Medicare for seniors into a voucher- based programme. 30 August Mitt Romney formally accepts the Republican nomination for President, at the Republican National Convention in Tampa Bay, Florida. His speech is preceded by Clint Eastw ood "interview ing" an empty chair, representing President Obama September 2012 6 September President Obama formally accepts the Democratic nomination for President, at the Democratic National Convention at Charlotte, North Carolina 11 Spetember US Ambassador and 3 other members of delegation killed in terrorist attack in Benghazi, Libya 22 September The first General Election votes are cast, as early voting opens in 12 states. October 2012 3 October First Presidential debate, focusing on domestic issues and policy, held in Denver, Colorado. Mitt Romney is w idely held to have w on the debate, revitalising a flagging campaign 11 October Vice Presidential debate held in Danville, Kentucky 16 October Second Presidential debate, covering all topics in a "Tow n Hall" format, held in Long Island, New York 22 October Third and final presidential debate, covering foreign affairs, held in Boca Raton, Florida 25 October President Obama becomes the first sitting President to cast an early vote, voting in Chicago 29 October Hurricane Sandy hits New York and New Jersey, causing a de facto suspension of both presidential campaigns November 2012 4 November Obama w ins the Presidential Election. The Democrats increase their majority in the Senate, and eat into the Republican majority in the House of Representatives. December 2012 15 December Voters of the Electoral College meet in state capitals to cast their votes. January 2013 6 January The results of the Electoral College vote are formally declared to the US Senate 20 January Second term of President Obama and Vice-President Biden officially begins. 21 January Inauguration Day

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B. Opinion polls

1. Opinion poll trends

The chart below shows national (as opposed to state-by-state) opinion poll trends as reported by major polling companies, starting from Mitt Romney’s confirmation as the de facto Republican nominee. Partisan pollsters have been excluded, and where multiple polls were concluded on the same day, the results have been averaged.

55

50

45

40

35

30 Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jun Jun Jun Jun Oct Oct Oct Oct Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Aug Aug Aug Aug Nov ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ May May May May ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 01 ‐ 08 ‐ 15 ‐ 22 ‐ 29 ‐ 24 17 10 03 28 21 14 07 02 ‐ 09 ‐ 16 ‐ 23 ‐ 30 ‐ 05 ‐ 12 ‐ 19 ‐ 26 ‐ 04 ‐ 27 20 13 06

Obama (D) Romney (R)

While individual polls varied (most had a 3% margin of error), the trend showed Obama with a lead until early October. During the last month of the campaign, particularly after the first Presidential debate, the polls were essentially tied, and remained so until the election.

2. State-level opinion polls

Extensive opinion polling was carried out at a state level, as well as nationally. Several organisations and websites used the primary data of the polls, and individualised weighting algorithms to predict which candidate was likely to win each state, and hence predict an overall total for each candidate in the Electoral College. They used the fact that opinion polls can (at least partially) be aggregated – if several polls are done in the same state over the same time period and produce similar results, it can be said with a greater degree of confidence that the aggregated polls are likely to accurately predict the outcome. For example, in the last week of the campaign a number of polls suggested that President Obama was leading Ohio by 1 or 2 percentage points. Individually, each

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of these results was within the poll’s margin of error, but collectively, they were relatively strong evidence that the President had a small but real lead in this key state.

The most prominent of these analysts was Nate Silver, writing for the New York Times at www.fivethirtyeight.com (named after the total number of Electoral Votes). Silver’s analysis, based on not only the outcome of polls, but also the polling companies track record was attacked by commentators who accused him of having a bias towards President Obama, and ignoring the national polls showing the race to be tied. The day before the election, Silver predicted that President Obama had a 91% probability of winning the Electoral College vote, and that the most likely outcome was a victory by 332 votes to 206 – the precise margin that occurred.

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IV Historical context

A. US Presidential Elections 1960-2012

US Presidential Elections 1960-2012: popular vote winner by state

American Key: 1 Democ rat 2 Republican Independent Not called (Segregationist)

1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

Alabama 1 221 222222222 Alaska 2 1 222222222222 Arizona 2222222221 2222 Arkansas 11 2 1 222112222 California 2 1 222222111111 Colorado 2 1 2222221 22211 Connecticut 11122222111111 Delaw are 11221 222111111 District of Columbia (a) 1111111111111 Florida 2 1 221 22221 2211 Georgia 1 2211221 22222 Haw aii 1112 112 1111111 Idaho 2 1 222222222222 Illinois 11222222111111 Indiana 2 1 22222222221 2 Iow a 2 1 2222211112 11 Kansas 2 1 222222222222 Kentucky 2 1 221 222112222 Louisiana 1 221 222112222 Maine 2 1122222111111 Maryland 11221122111111 Massachusetts 11111221111111 Michigan 11122222111111 Minnesota 1112 1111111111 Mississippi 1 221 222222222 Missouri 11221 222112222 Montana 2 1 2222221 22222 Nebraska 2 1 222222222222 Nevada 11222222112211 New Hamps hire 2 1 222222112 111 New Jers ey 11222222111111 New Mexico 112222221112 11 New Y ork 1112 1 221111111 North Carolina 11221 2222222 2 North Dakota 2 1 222222222222 Ohio 2 1 221 222112211 Oklahoma 2 1 222222222222 Oregon 2 1 222221111111 Pennsylvania 1112 1 222111111 Rhode Island 1112 112 1111111 South Carolina 1 2221 222222222 South Dakota 2 1 222222222222 Tennessee 2 1 221 222112222 Texas 1112 1 222222222 Utah 2 1 222222222222 Vermont 2 1 222222111111 Virginia 2 1 222222222211 Washington 2 1122221111111 West Virginia 1112 112 1112222 Wisconsin 2 1 221 221111111 Wyoming 2 1 222222222222

Note - this table shows the popular vote winner by state rather than the distribution of Electoral College Votes (a) District of Columbia residents have voted in Presidential elections since 1964 following the adoption of the Twenty-Third Amendment in 1961 Sources: US Census Bureau, Associated Press

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Note: States are coloured according to the winner of the popular vote in each, rather than the final allocation of Electoral College votes. Occasionally, ‘faithless electors’ and unpledged delegates have not voted for the candidate chosen by popular vote in the electoral college

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US Presidential Election 2012: projected distribution of Electoral College votes

Democrat Republican State ECVs State ECVs

California 55 Alabama 9 Colorado 9 Alaska 3 Connecticut 7 Arizona 11 Delaware 3 Arkansas 6 District of Columbia 3 Georgia 16 Florida 29 Idaho 4 Hawaii 4 Indiana 11 Illinois 20 Kansas 6 Iowa 6 Kentucky 8 Maine 4 Louisiana 8 Maryland 10 Mississippi 6 Massachusetts 11 Missouri 10 Michigan 16 Montana 3 Minnesota 10 Nebraska 5 Nevada 6 North Carolina 15 New Hampshire 4 North Dakota 3 New Jersey 14 Oklahoma 7 New Mexico 5 South Carolina 9 New York 29 South Dakota 3 Ohio 18 Tennessee 11 Oregon 7 Texas 38 Pennsylvania 20 Utah 6 Rhode Island 4 West Virginia 5 Vermont 3 Wyoming 3 Virginia 13 Washington 12 Wisconsin 10

Democrat total 332 Republican total 206

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US Presidential Election results 1960-2012

Democrat Republican Candidate Votes (000s) % vote ECVs Candidate Votes (000s) % vote ECVs

1960 Ke nne dy 34,227 49.7 303 Nixon 34,108 49.5 219 1964 Johnson 42,825 61.1 486 Goldw ater 27,147 38.7 52 1968 Humphrey 30,989 42.4 191 Nixon 31,710 43.4 301 1972 McGovern 28,902 37.2 17 Nixon 46,740 60.2 520 1976 Carter 40,826 50.0 297 Ford 39,148 48.0 240 1980 Carter 35,481 41.0 49 Re agan 43,643 50.5 489 1984 Mondale 37,450 40.4 13 Re agan 54,167 58.5 525 1988 Dukakis 41,717 45.5 111 Bus h Snr 48,643 53.1 426 1992 Clinton 44,858 42.9 370 Bush Snr 38,799 37.1 168 1996 Clinton 47,402 49.2 379 Dole 39,198 40.7 159 2000 Gore 50,996 48.3 266 Bus h Jnr 50,465 47.8 271 2004 Kerry 58,895 48.1 251 Bus h Jnr 61,873 50.6 286 2008 Obam a 69,457 52.9 364 McCain 59,935 45.7 162 2012 (a) Obam a 62,282 50.6 332 Romney 58,900 47.9 206

(a): Vote totals and ECVs provisional Sources: US Census Bureau, Associated Press

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B. Turnout

The second highest vote total in history was cast at the 2012 Presidential Election:7

Votes cast at US presidential Elections 1960-2012 Millions

140 131 122 123 120 105 106 96 100 93 92 86 82 78 80 73 69 70

60

40

20

0 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

However, as a share of the voting age population, turnout in 2008 was down significantly on 2008, and well below that in the 1960s.

Turnout at US presidential Elections 1960-2012 Share of voting age population, %

70 63.1 61.9 60.8 59.6 60 55.2 55.1 55.3 53.6 53.1 52.6 51.3 52.2 50.1 49.1 50

40

30

20

10

0 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 (est.)

Reliable figures for voter registration are not yet available.

7 Data from US Census Bureau and US Federal Election Commission

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V Background

A. Presidential election

In the United States, under Article II of the Constitution, a Presidential election is held every four years. Federal law states that the election must take place on the Tuesday following the first Monday in November; meaning that US presidential elections, in practice, are held between 2 and 8 November.

In 2012, for re-electing the country’s 44th President or electing its 45th, election day was Tuesday 6 November. The 2012 election was the 56th consecutive US presidential election; even in wartime, there has been a US presidential election every four years since the first in 1789. The next presidential election is scheduled to take place on 8 November 2016.

The US Constitution (Article II, Section I) states that the President should serve a four- year term and can be removed from office only by the process of impeachment (Article II, Section IV). In deciding against standing for election to a third-term of office in 1796, the first US President, George Washington, established the constitutional convention of the two-term limit of presidential office. Only Franklin Delano Roosevelt, the 32nd President, who began his fourth term shortly before his death in April 1945, has been elected for more than two terms. Since the ratification of the Twenty-Second Amendment in 1951, however, Presidential tenure has been limited by the Constitution to no more than two four-year terms, or a maximum of ten years under special circumstances.8

1. Candidates

Democratic incumbent President Barack Obama received no serious opposition to his re- nomination for a second term. A small number of fringe and perennial candidates appeared on ballots in Democratic primaries throughout the spring of 2012, in some cases amassing enough votes to enable them to have a handful of delegates seated at the Democratic National Convention. In each case where this occurred, the national Democratic party ruled that the requirements for seating delegates had not been met. No candidate other than President Obama had delegates seated at the Democratic convention, held in Charlotte, South Carolina on 4-6 September 2012. Joe Biden was re- nominated as President Obama’s Vice-Presidential running-mate.

Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts, came through an extensive series of primaries and caucuses to secure the Republican nomination for President. Major candidates for the nomination included Congresswoman Michele Bachmann (Minnesota), former Speaker of the House of Representative (Georgia), former Governor and US Ambassador Jon Huntsman (Utah), Congressman (Texas), Governor Rick Perry (Texas), and former Senator Rick Santorum (Pennsylvania). In addition, businessman (Georgia) achieved prominence

8 This would apply if a twice-elected President had also served two years (or less) of the term of another elected President. (US Constitution, Amendment XXII, ratified 27 February 1951)

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in late 2011, but withdrew from the race before the first contest after allegations of sexual harassment came to light.

Mitt Romney was prominent in opinion polling and results throughout the nomination contests, with various other candidates having a “moment in the sun” thanks to results or media coverage. Throughout the early primaries, Romney struggled to score more than 30-40% of the vote, with many members of the Republican voters suspecting that he was “insufficiently conservative” for the party. Most of Mr Romney’s opponents dropped out after a lack of success in early contests, with the last 2 remaining opponents, Rick Santorum and Ron Paul suspending their campaigns in early May. In addition to Romney, Paul and Santorum, the only other candidate to get a plurality of the vote in any state was Newt Gingrich, who won his home state of Georgia, and neighbouring South Carolina.

Mitt Romney’s nomination was mathematically confirmed with the California primary on June 5th, which gave him a majority of pledged delegates to the Republican national Convention. The nomination of Governor Romney, and his running-mate Congressman Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, was formalised at the Republican convention, held in Tampa Bay, Florida from 28-30 August.

Significant third-party candidates in the Presidential election included former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson (Libertarian Party), who appears on the ballot in 48 states and the District of Columbia; Jill Stein (Green Party) who is on the ballot in 36 states and the District, and former Congressman Virgil Goode (Constitution Party) who appears on 26 state ballot papers. In addition to appearing directly on ballot papers, all these candidates (and others) are eligible to receive write-in votes.

2. The Electoral College

Under Article II (Section I) of the US Constitution, the President and Vice President are not elected directly by popular vote, but are chosen instead by a majority vote of presidential electors, known collectively as the Electoral College. Each state is allocated a number of electors equal to the total number of its Senators and Representatives in Congress. The District of Columbia (Washington DC), which has a Delegate (as opposed to an elected Representative) in the House,9 has the same number of electors (three) as the least populous states. Thus, the Electoral College currently comprises 538 members, based on 435 Representatives, 100 Senators and three electors for the District of Columbia.

There were changes to the distribution of electoral votes in 2012 compared with 2008, as the number of seats each state was allocated in the House of Representatives changed. These changes, detailed in the table below, were as a result of population changes on a state level, as identified by the 2010 US Census.

9 Delegates may vote only in the House’s Committee of the Whole, which is used to expedite consideration of legislation. Its decisions require approval by the whole House. There are also Delegates for the US Virgin Islands, Guam and American Samoa, serving a 2-year term, and a Resident Commissioner from Puerto Rico, who serves a 4-year term and has the same voting rights.

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Electoral College changes 2008 - 2012

Electoral Votes State 2008 2012 Change Arizona 10 11 +1 Florida 27 29 +2 Georgia 15 16 +1 Illinois 21 20 -1 Iowa 7 6 -1 Louisiana 9 8 -1 Massachussetts 12 11 -1 Michigan 17 16 -1 Missouri 11 10 -1 Nevada 5 6 +1 New Jersey 15 14 -1 New York 31 29 -2 Ohio 20 18 -2 Pennsylvania 21 20 -1 South Carolina 8 9 +1 Texas 34 38 +4 Utah 5 6 +1 Washington 11 12 +1 Overall, “red states”, won by John McCain in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012 gained 6 Electoral Votes, with the same number of votes lost in “blue states” won by President Obama in both elections.

To become President, a candidate must achieve an overall majority of votes in the Electoral College, that is, at least 270 Electoral College votes. In 48 of America’s 50 states, and in the District of Columbia, Electoral College votes are awarded on a “winner- take-all” basis, with the party slate that wins the most popular votes providing all the electors for that state. The exceptions are Maine and Nebraska, where two electors are chosen by state-wide popular vote and the remainder by popular vote in each congressional district.

The Electoral College never meets as a body. On Election Day voters in each state (and the District of Columbia) cast their votes for their choice of candidate for President and Vice President. The political parties (or independent candidates) in each state submit a list of prospective electors, who are pledged to their candidate for President and are equal in number to the state’s electoral vote. The major parties usually select their candidates for electors at state party conventions or through appointment by their state party leaders, while third parties and independent candidates designate theirs. Any citizen, other than a Member of Congress or an employee of the federal government, may be chosen to serve as elector, but in practice they are usually selected in recognition of service to their political party.10

There is no federal law requiring electors to vote as they have pledged, but in 29 states and the District of Columbia electors are bound by state law and/or by state or party

10 National Archives and Records Administration (NARA), US Electoral College, http://www.archives.gov/federal_register/electoral_college/selects.html

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pledge to cast their vote for the candidate that wins the state-wide popular vote. A number of electors have violated such laws over the years, but the penalties are not very severe. Many constitutional lawyers agree that electors remain free agents, despite state laws, and that, if challenged, such laws would be ruled unconstitutional.11

3. Electoral College vote, 17 December 2012

Following the general election, the electors meet in their respective states on the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December (17 December in 2012) to vote, in separate ballots, for the President and Vice President. Under the Constitution, candidates for both posts require an absolute majority of Electoral College votes (270 out of 538) to be elected.

Since all the Electoral College votes for each state (and the District of Colombia) generally go to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in that state, the possibility exists that the presidential candidate who receives a majority (or plurality) of the popular votes nationwide may not receive a majority of the Electoral College votes. This has occurred only four times in the history of the United States, most recently to the Democratic presidential candidate, Al Gore, in the 2000 presidential election, who won 48.4% of the popular vote to George W Bush’s 47.9%, but lost the Electoral College by 266 votes to Bush’s 271 votes.12 The winning Electoral College votes came from Florida whose 25 College votes all went to Mr Bush despite the difference between the two in the state’s popular vote being only 537 popular votes. In 18 of the 56 presidential elections to date the winning candidate did not receive more than 50% of the popular votes cast, most recently George W Bush in 2000.13

4. Confirmation of the election results by Congress, 7 January 2013

Once the Governor of each state has certified the results of the Electoral College vote, they are forwarded to the President of the US Senate (the country’s Vice President, ex officio). The electoral vote certificates are then opened and tallied at a joint session of Congress held on 6 January following the election,14 with the Vice President presiding. The presidential and vice presidential candidates with the most electoral votes and an absolute majority of the votes cast (at least 270 out of 538) are then declared elected.

If no presidential candidate received an absolute majority of electoral votes, the newly elected House of Representatives (regarded as the chamber closest to the people) would select the President from among the top three contenders, with each state delegation in the House casting one vote only, and an absolute majority of the states being required to elect the President. If no candidate for Vice President obtained an absolute majority, then the newly constituted Senate, voting as individuals, would elect a Vice President from the top two contenders. A quorum of two thirds of the members of the Senate and a majority vote are required for the election to be valid.

11 Center for Voting and Democracy, State control of electors http://www.fairvote.org/e_college/bindingstates.htm 12 Frederick M Kaiser, American national government: an overview, CRS Report for Congress, 20 May 2003 13 Guide to Congress, 5 ed., 2000, p390 14 On the following day if 6 January falls on a Sunday

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5. Inauguration Day, 20/21 January 2013

On 20 January following the date of the election, the President- and Vice President-elect are sworn into office at an inauguration ceremony in Washington DC, on the west side of the Capitol building. The terms of the previous President and Vice President end at noon on that day.15 Following an inaugural parade, the President takes the oath of office and delivers his inaugural address. If 20 January falls on a Sunday, as it does in 2013, it is convention that the President- and Vice-President-elect take the Oath of Office privately on the 20th and the formal Inauguration Ceremony is held the following day. B. Congressional elections

1. Senate

Each state has two Senators, making a total membership of 100. Senators are elected for six-year terms, which are staggered by dividing Senators into three classes, so that only one third of the Senate is up for election every two years, in even-numbered years. Thus, every second Senate election coincides with a presidential election. Normally, no two Senate seats from the same state will be up for election in the same year. Senators are directly elected by ‘plurality’ vote, with the state serving, in effect, as a single- member district. The candidate with the largest number of votes – usually, but not necessarily, a majority – is elected. Georgia requires a candidate to receive a majority of popular votes in order to be elected.

51 seats are needed for either party to hold a majority. Under the Constitution, the Vice President (as President of the Senate, ex officio) casts the deciding vote in the event of a tied vote.

2. House of Representatives

Elections for members of the House of Representatives (435 seats) take place every second year in even-numbered years, on the Tuesday following the first Monday in November. Thus, every second such election coincides with a presidential election, with mid-term House elections in between.

Each of the 50 states has at least one seat in the House of Representatives and the rest of the seats are allocated among the states according to their population. The least populous states (Alaska, Delaware, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont and Wyoming) have only one seat in the House, while California has the largest number of seats (53). Candidates are nominated by primary election in most states, while some states provide for a party convention or committee recommendation in conjunction with a primary.

Representatives are elected by ‘plurality’ vote in the congressional district in which they are candidates (or ‘at-large’, across the state as a whole, in the seven least populous states with only one Representative). This means that the candidate with the largest number of votes – usually, but not necessarily, a majority – is elected. Exceptions to this

15 US Constitution, Amendment XX, Section 1

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rule are the District of Columbia (DC), for its Delegate to the House, and Georgia, both of which require a candidate to receive a majority of popular votes in order to be elected.

218 seats are required for either party to secure a majority. The Speaker of the House has a casting vote. The Republican Party held a majority of seats in the House of Representatives from January 1995 (on the basis of the 1994 election) to January 2007. In the 2006 mid-term elections, the Democrats gained control of the House for the first time in 14 years, holding a majority until the mid-term elections in 2010, when Republicans made a net gain of 62 seats, taking a total of 242 to the Democrats 193.

A significant factor in recent House elections has been the impact of partisan redistricting (redrawing of district boundaries) by both main parties in various state legislatures. This has created a political landscape in which it has become much more difficult to displace an incumbent and there is less scope for seats to change hands between parties. For the 2012 elections, the majority of states saw some form of redistricting. In some cases, this was mandated by a change in the number of seats, owing to changes in the share of population identified by the 2010 US Census.

3. 113th Congress

The terms of office of Senators and Representatives elected to the 113th Congress will begin at noon on 3 January 2013. The 113th Congress will last for two years, until January 2011, with each year constituting a separate session. Mid-term elections for the 114th Congress will be held in November 2014.

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VI Appendices

1. APPENDIX 1

US Presidential Election 2012: results by state

Votes (000s) % vote Obama 2008 % shares Change since 2008 State ECVs Result Obama Romney Other Total Obama Romney lead Obama McCain Dem Rep

Alabama 9 Rep hold 793.6 1,252.5 18.6 2,064.7 38.4% 60.7% -22.2% 38.8% 60.4% -0.4% +0.2% Alaska 3 Rep hold 91.7 121.2 7.7 220.6 41.6% 55.0% -13.4% 36.2% 61.5% +5.3% -6.5% Arizona 11 Rep hold 900.1 1,107.1 34.3 2,041.5 44.1% 54.2% -10.1% 45.1% 53.7% -1.0% +0.5% Arkansas 6 Rep hold 389.7 638.5 26.9 1,055.1 36.9% 60.5% -23.6% 38.8% 58.8% -1.9% +1.8% California 55 Dem hold 6,241.6 4,046.5 250.5 10,538.7 59.2% 38.4% +20.8% 61.1% 37.1% -1.8% +1.3% Colorado 9 Dem hold 1,238.5 1,125.4 45.0 2,408.8 51.4% 46.7% +4.7% 53.5% 44.9% -2.1% +1.9% Connecticut 7 Dem hold 912.5 631.4 18.2 1,562.2 58.4% 40.4% +18.0% 60.6% 38.3% -2.2% +2.2% Delaware 3 Dem hold 242.5 165.5 5.8 413.8 58.6% 40.0% +18.6% 61.9% 37.0% -3.3% +3.0% District of Columbi a 3 Dem hold 222.3 17.3 1.3 241.0 92.2% 7.2% +85.1% 92.9% 6.5% -0.6% +0.7% Florida 29 Dem hold 4,235.3 4,162.1 72.9 8,470.2 50.0% 49.1% +0.9% 50.9% 48.4% -0.9% +0.8% Georgia 16 Rep hold 1,761.8 2,070.2 45.1 3,877.0 45.4% 53.4% -8.0% 47.0% 52.3% -1.6% +1.1% Hawaii 4 Dem hold 303.1 119.5 6.9 429.5 70.6% 27.8% +42.7% 71.8% 26.6% -1.2% +1.2% Idaho 4 Rep hold 212.6 420.8 16.3 649.7 32.7% 64.8% -32.0% 36.1% 61.5% -3.4% +3.2% Illinois 20 Dem hold 2,916.8 2,090.1 84.1 5,091.1 57.3% 41.1% +16.2% 61.7% 37.0% -4.4% +4.1% Indiana 11 Rep gain 1,140.4 1,412.6 49.8 2,602.9 43.8% 54.3% -10.5% 49.9% 49.0% -6.1% +5.3% Iowa 6 Dem hold 816.4 727.9 19.6 1,563.9 52.2% 46.5% +5.7% 54.0% 44.7% -1.8% +1.9% Kansas 6 Rep hold 427.9 678.7 24.6 1,131.2 37.8% 60.0% -22.2% 41.4% 56.8% -3.6% +3.2% Kentucky 8 Rep hold 679.3 1,087.1 30.3 1,796.7 37.8% 60.5% -22.7% 41.1% 57.5% -3.3% +3.0% Louisiana 8 Rep hold 808.5 1,152.5 27.6 1,988.6 40.7% 58.0% -17.3% 39.9% 58.6% +0.8% -0.7% Maine 4 Dem hold 397.8 290.4 22.5 710.7 56.0% 40.9% +15.1% 57.6% 40.5% -1.7% +0.4% Maryland 10 Dem hold 1,527.7 905.0 43.3 2,476.0 61.7% 36.6% +25.2% 61.4% 37.3% +0.3% -0.7% Massachusetts 11 Dem hold 1,900.6 1,177.4 50.2 3,128.1 60.8% 37.6% +23.1% 62.0% 36.2% -1.3% +1.4% Michigan 16 Dem hold 2,561.9 2,112.7 43.1 4,717.7 54.3% 44.8% +9.5% 57.4% 40.9% -3.1% +3.8% Minnesota 10 Dem hold 1,547.7 1,321.6 59.7 2,928.9 52.8% 45.1% +7.7% 54.2% 44.0% -1.4% +1.2% Mississippi 6 Rep hold 528.3 674.3 10.4 1,213.0 43.5% 55.6% -12.0% 42.7% 56.4% +0.8% -0.8%

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Votes (000s ) % vote Obama 2008 % shares Change since 2008 State ECVs Result Obama Romney Other Total Obama Romney lead Obama McCain Dem Rep

Missouri 10 Rep hold 1,215.0 1,479.0 50.9 2,744.9 44.3% 53.9% -9.6% 49.3% 49.5% -5.0% +4.4% Montana 3 Rep hold 200.5 265.0 2.0 467.5 42.9% 56.7% -13.8% 47.2% 49.7% -4.3% +7.0% Nebraska 5 Rep hold 289.2 463.0 13.0 765.1 37.8% 60.5% -22.7% 41.2% 57.3% -3.4% +3.2% Nevada 6 Dem hold 528.8 462.4 19.9 1,011.1 52.3% 45.7% +6.6% 55.1% 42.7% -2.8% +3.0% New Hampshire 4 Dem hold 368.5 327.9 9.5 705.9 52.2% 46.4% +5.8% 54.3% 44.8% -2.1% +1.7% New Jersey 14 Dem hold 1,960.7 1,383.2 34.8 3,378.8 58.0% 40.9% +17.1% 56.8% 42.1% +1.2% -1.2% New Mexico 5 Dem hold 408.3 331.9 31.1 771.4 52.9% 43.0% +9.9% 56.7% 42.0% -3.8% +1.1% New York 29 Dem hold 3,875.8 2,226.6 84.4 6,186.9 62.6% 36.0% +26.7% 62.2% 36.7% +0.5% -0.7% North Carolina 15 Rep gain 2,178.4 2,275.9 44.8 4,499.0 48.4% 50.6% -2.2% 49.9% 49.5% -1.4% +1.0% North Dakota 3 Rep hold 124.5 187.6 7.7 319.8 38.9% 58.7% -19.7% 44.7% 53.3% -5.7% +5.3% Ohio 18 Dem hold 2,697.3 2,593.8 77.3 5,368.3 50.2% 48.3% +1.9% 51.2% 47.2% -0.9% +1.1% Oklahoma 7 Rep hold 442.6 889.4 0.0 1,332.0 33.2% 66.8% -33.5% 34.4% 65.6% -1.1% +1.1% Oregon 7 Dem hold 932.5 732.3 49.0 1,713.7 54.4% 42.7% +11.7% 57.1% 40.8% -2.7% +1.9% Pennsylvania 20 Dem hold 2,907.4 2,619.6 69.5 5,596.5 52.0% 46.8% +5.1% 54.7% 44.3% -2.7% +2.5% Rhode Island 4 Dem hold 274.3 155.4 7.7 437.4 62.7% 35.5% +27.2% 63.1% 35.3% -0.3% +0.2% South Carolina 9 Rep hold 845.8 1,049.5 26.1 1,921.4 44.0% 54.6% -10.6% 45.0% 53.8% -0.9% +0.8% South Dakota 3 Rep hold 145.0 210.5 8.2 363.7 39.9% 57.9% -18.0% 44.7% 53.2% -4.9% +4.7% Tennessee 11 Rep hold 953.0 1,453.1 36.7 2,442.8 39.0% 59.5% -20.5% 41.8% 56.9% -2.8% +2.6% Texas 38 Rep hold 3,294.4 4,555.8 112.6 7,962.8 41.4% 57.2% -15.8% 43.8% 55.5% -2.4% +1.7% Utah 6 Rep hold 229.5 671.7 19.2 920.4 24.9% 73.0% -48.1% 34.2% 62.9% -9.2% +10.1% Vermont 3 Dem hold 199.3 92.7 5.3 297.3 67.0% 31.2% +35.8% 66.8% 31.6% +0.3% -0.4% Virginia 13 Dem hold 1,905.5 1,789.6 52.7 3,747.9 50.8% 47.8% +3.1% 52.3% 46.8% -1.5% +1.0% Washington 12 Dem hold 1,588.3 1,183.6 68.4 2,840.3 55.9% 41.7% +14.2% 57.5% 40.7% -1.5% +0.9% West Virginia 5 Rep hold 234.9 412.4 14.3 661.6 35.5% 62.3% -26.8% 42.6% 55.7% -7.1% +6.6% Wisconsin 10 Dem hold 1,614.0 1,408.7 37.0 3,059.7 52.7% 46.0% +6.7% 56.3% 42.4% -3.6% +3.6% Wyoming 3 Rep hold 68.8 170.3 6.7 245.8 28.0% 69.3% -41.3% 32.7% 65.2% -4.7% +4.1%

United States 538 62,281.0 58,899.1 1,903.6 123,083.7 50.6% 47.9% +2.7% 52.9% 45.7% -2.3% +2.2%

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2. APPENDIX 2

US Senate Elections 2012: results by state

Democrat Republican Others

State Result Candidate Votes % vote Candidate Votes % vote Votes % vote Total

Arizona Rep Hold Richard Carmona 797,019 45.6% 875,794 50.1% 76,679 4.4% 1,749,492

California D Dem Hold Dianne Feinstein 5,669,691 61.3% Elizabeth Emkin 3,575,941 38.7% 0 0.0% 9,245,632

Connecticut d Dem Hold Chris Murphy 815,077 55.2% Linda McMahon 637,857 43.2% 24,883 1.7% 1,477,817

Delaware d Dem Hold Tom Carper 265,374 66.4% Kevin Wade 115,694 29.0% 18,491 4.6% 399,559

Florida d Dem Hold Bill Nelson 4,453,341 55.1% Connie McGillicuddy 3,420,084 42.3% 205,839 2.5% 8,079,264

Hawaii d Dem Hold Maizie Hirono 2,666,435 94.4% Linda Lingle 159,002 5.6% 0 0.0% 2,825,437 Indiana Dem Gain Joe Donnelly 1,268,407 49.9% Richard Mourdock 1,126,832 44.3% 146,435 5.8% 2,541,674 Maine Ind Gain Cynthia Dill 91,964 13.2% Charlie Summers 213,644 30.7% 391,250 a 56.1% 696,858

Maryland d Dem Hold Ben Cardin 1,335,706 55.3% Dan Bongino 642,443 26.6% 439,130 18.2% 2,417,279 Massachusetts Dem Gain Elizabeth Warren 1,678,408 53.7% Scott Brown 1,449,180 46.3% 0 0.0% 3,127,588

Michigan d Dem Hold Debbie Stabenow 2,732,886 58.8% Peter Hoekstra 1,765,548 38.0% 149,615 3.2% 4,648,049

Minnesota d Dem Hold 1,856,196 65.3% Kurt Bills 868,977 30.6% 118,227 4.2% 2,843,400 Mississippi Rep Hold Albert Gore 470,902 41.3% Roger Wicker 669,261 58.7% 0 0.0% 1,140,163

Missouri d Dem Hold Claire McCaskill 1,484,683 54.7% Todd Akin 1,063,698 39.2% 164,991 6.1% 2,713,372

Montana d Dem Hold Jon Tester 234,465 48.7% Denny Rehberg 215,701 44.8% 31,287 6.5% 481,453

Nebraska d Dem Hold Bob Kerrey 318,930 41.8% Deb Fischer 444,319 58.2% 0 0.0% 763,249 Nevada Rep Hold Shelley Berkley 444,337 44.7% Dean Heller 456,471 45.9% 93,436 9.4% 994,244

New Jersey d Dem Hold Bob Menendez 1,828,417 58.5% Joseph Kyrillos 1,244,734 39.8% 53,709 1.7% 3,126,860

New Mexico d Dem Hold Martin Heinrich 389,274 51.0% Heather Wilson 346,938 45.4% 27,710 3.6% 763,922

New York d Dem Hold Kirsten Gillibrand 4,212,518 71.9% Wendy Long 1,561,893 26.7% 85,085 1.5% 5,859,496

North Dakota d Dem Hold Heidi Heitkamp 160,752 50.5% Rick Berg 157,578 49.5% 0 0.0% 318,330

Ohio d Dem Hold Sherrod Brown 2,645,901 50.3% Josh Mandel 2,371,230 45.1% 241,102 4.6% 5,258,233

Pennsylvania d Dem Hold Bob Casey 2,943,289 53.6% Tom Smith 2,453,730 44.7% 94,362 1.7% 5,491,381

Rhode Island d Dem Hold Sheldon Whitehous 265,687 64.8% Barry Hinckley 144,620 35.2% 0 0.0% 410,307 Tennessee Rep Hold Mark Clayton 700,753 30.4% Bob Corker 1,496,668 64.9% 106,920 4.6% 2,304,341

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Democrat Republican Others State Result Candidate Votes % vote Candidate Votes % vote Votes % vote Total

Texas Rep Hold Paul Sadler 3,183,314 40.5% Ted Cruz 4,456,599 56.6% 229,253 2.9% 7,869,166 Utah Rep Hold Scott Howell 275,880 31.2% Orrin Hatch 595,972 67.5% 10,966 1.2% 882,818

Verm ont d Dem Hold Bernie Sanders* 208,253 66.2% John MacGovern 72,629 23.1% 33,568 10.7% 314,450

Virginia d Dem Hold Tim Kaine 1,944,992 52.5% George Allen 1,758,857 47.5% 0 0.0% 3,703,849

Washington d Dem Hold Maria Cantwell 1,679,573 60.2% Michael Baumgartne 1,109,800 39.8% 0 0.0% 2,789,373

West Virginia d Dem Hold Joe Manchin 394,532 60.5% John Raese 237,825 36.5% 19,231 3.0% 651,588

Wisconsin d Dem Hold Tammy Baldwin 1,544,274 51.5% Tommy Thompson 1,377,253 45.9% 78,235 2.6% 2,999,762 Wyoming Rep Hold Tim Chesnut 52,596 21.6% John Barrasso 184,531 75.9% 6,138 2.5% 243,265

* Senator Bernie Sanders is an Independent, but caucases with the Democrats. No official Democrat candidate ran in Vermont. a Angus King (Independent) won Maine with 368,160 votes (52.8%)

42 RP 12/69

3. APPENDIX 3

US House of Representatives Elections 2012: full results by district

Votes Share of vote Dem Rep Other Total Dem Rep Other

Alabam a

Distric t 1 1 0 1 1 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

Distric t 2 1 102,836 180,339 283,175 36.3% 63.7% 0.0%

Distric t 3 1 97,868 174,931 272,799 35.9% 64.1% 0.0%

Distric t 4 1 69,427 197,736 267,163 26.0% 74.0% 0.0%

Distric t 5 1 101,504 188,833 290,337 35.0% 65.0% 0.0%

Distric t 6 1 86,698 215,966 302,664 28.6% 71.4% 0.0%

Distric t 7 2 230,077 73,292 303,369 75.8% 24.2% 0.0% Total 688,410 1,031,098 1,719,508 40.0% 60.0% 0.0%

Alaska

At large 1 62,013 141,276 15,109 218,398 28.4% 64.7% 6.9%

Arizona

Distric t 1 2 110,458 104,209 13,447 228,114 48.4% 45.7% 5.9% District 2 132,750 132,420 265,170 50.1% 49.9% 0.0%

Distric t 3 2 82,709 54,127 6,275 143,111 57.8% 37.8% 4.4%

Distric t 4 1 63,261 149,833 10,456 223,550 28.3% 67.0% 4.7%

Distric t 5 1 73,182 153,216 226,398 32.3% 67.7% 0.0%

Distric t 6 1 81,194 150,987 12,526 244,707 33.2% 61.7% 5.1%

Distric t 7 2 81,781 19,346 101,127 80.9% 0.0% 19.1%

Distric t 8 1 79,924 145,719 3,482 229,125 34.9% 63.6% 1.5%

Distric t 9 2 100,486 94,697 13,307 208,490 48.2% 45.4% 6.4% Total 805,745 985,208 78,839 1,869,792 43.1% 52.7% 4.2%

Arkansas

Distric t 1 1 95,244 137,668 11,346 244,258 39.0% 56.4% 4.6%

Distric t 2 1 112,934 157,978 15,231 286,143 39.5% 55.2% 5.3%

Distric t 3 1 0 179,732 57,360 237,092 0.0% 75.8% 24.2%

Distric t 4 1 94,505 153,096 9,919 257,520 36.7% 59.5% 3.9% Total 302,683 628,474 93,856 1,025,013 29.5% 61.3% 9.2%

California

Distric t 1 1 93,415 128,316 221,731 42.1% 57.9% 0.0%

Distric t 2 2 169,637 71,258 240,895 70.4% 29.6% 0.0%

Distric t 3 2 105,044 89,724 194,768 53.9% 46.1% 0.0%

Distric t 4 1 105,496 166,291 271,787 38.8% 61.2% 0.0%

Distric t 5 2 157,185 54,656 211,841 74.2% 25.8% 0.0%

Distric t 6 2 120,332 41,267 161,599 74.5% 25.5% 0.0% District 7 105,245 103,466 208,711 50.4% 49.6% 0.0%

Distric t 8 1 95,962 70,608 166,570 0.0% 57.6% 42.4%

Distric t 9 2 86,128 73,103 159,231 54.1% 45.9% 0.0%

Distric t 10 1 85,329 99,077 184,406 46.3% 53.7% 0.0%

Distric t 11 2 161,611 71,934 233,545 69.2% 30.8% 0.0%

Distric t 12 2 196,932 35,285 232,217 84.8% 15.2% 0.0%

Distric t 13 2 200,086 31,595 231,681 86.4% 0.0% 13.6%

Distric t 14 2 148,973 52,063 201,036 74.1% 25.9% 0.0%

Distric t 15 2 107,855 96,790 204,645 52.7% 0.0% 47.3%

Distric t 16 2 60,535 49,421 109,956 55.1% 44.9% 0.0%

Distric t 17 2 142,806 52,039 194,845 73.3% 26.7% 0.0%

Distric t 18 2 185,882 79,014 264,896 70.2% 29.8% 0.0%

Distric t 19 2 147,918 54,986 202,904 72.9% 27.1% 0.0%

Distric t 20 2 113,536 42,325 155,861 72.8% 27.2% 0.0%

Distric t 21 1 34,161 51,309 85,470 40.0% 60.0% 0.0%

Distric t 22 1 59,036 99,973 159,009 37.1% 62.9% 0.0%

Distric t 23 1 123,689 43,969 167,658 0.0% 73.8% 26.2%

Distric t 24 2 133,386 108,148 241,534 55.2% 44.8% 0.0%

Distric t 25 1 83,859 104,351 188,210 44.6% 55.4% 0.0%

43 RP 12/69

Votes Share of vote Dem Rep Other Total Dem Rep Other

Dis trict 26 2 112,382 104,266 216,648 51.9% 48.1% 0.0%

Dis trict 27 2 122,369 71,533 193,902 63.1% 36.9% 0.0%

Dis trict 28 2 146,018 46,539 192,557 75.8% 24.2% 0.0%

Dis trict 29 2 85,385 29,846 115,231 74.1% 0.0% 25.9%

Dis trict 30 2 111,914 72,979 184,893 60.5% 0.0% 39.5%

Dis trict 31 1 82,212 66,603 148,815 0.0% 55.2% 44.8%

Dis trict 32 2 98,890 53,159 152,049 65.0% 35.0% 0.0%

Dis trict 33 2 132,151 115,387 247,538 53.4% 0.0% 46.6%

Dis trict 34 2 91,329 15,365 106,694 85.6% 14.4% 0.0%

Dis trict 35 2 71,299 56,388 127,687 55.8% 0.0% 44.2%

Dis trict 36 2 98,843 91,507 190,350 51.9% 48.1% 0.0%

Dis trict 37 2 154,562 24,378 178,940 86.4% 13.6% 0.0%

Dis trict 38 2 114,832 57,116 171,948 66.8% 33.2% 0.0%

Dis trict 39 1 90,162 130,559 220,721 40.8% 59.2% 0.0%

Dis trict 40 2 59,162 40,291 99,453 59.5% 0.0% 40.5%

Dis trict 41 2 89,599 65,990 155,589 57.6% 42.4% 0.0%

Dis trict 42 1 74,776 117,407 192,183 38.9% 61.1% 0.0%

Dis trict 43 2 108,747 45,614 154,361 70.4% 0.0% 29.6%

Dis trict 44 2 77,441 51,727 129,168 60.0% 0.0% 40.0%

Dis trict 45 1 108,500 156,770 265,270 40.9% 59.1% 0.0%

Dis trict 46 2 75,003 47,532 122,535 61.2% 38.8% 0.0%

Dis trict 47 2 102,578 84,202 186,780 54.9% 45.1% 0.0%

Dis trict 48 1 100,676 161,011 261,687 38.5% 61.5% 0.0%

Dis trict 49 1 88,314 127,278 215,592 41.0% 59.0% 0.0%

Dis trict 50 1 62,573 134,695 197,268 31.7% 68.3% 0.0%

Dis trict 51 2 77,799 33,641 111,440 69.8% 30.2% 0.0%

Dis trict 52 2 110,825 109,491 220,316 50.3% 49.7% 0.0%

Dis trict 53 2 118,673 77,563 196,236 60.5% 39.5% 0.0% Total 5,489,189 3,639,871 721,797 9,850,857 55.7% 36.9% 7.3%

Colorado

Dis trict 1 2 225,138 89,297 16,045 330,480 68.1% 27.0% 4.9%

Dis trict 2 2 222,367 153,305 21,722 397,394 56.0% 38.6% 5.5%

Dis trict 3 1 138,242 179,745 18,296 336,283 41.1% 53.5% 5.4%

Dis trict 4 1 118,920 189,757 15,199 323,876 36.7% 58.6% 4.7%

Dis trict 5 1 191,198 101,791 292,989 0.0% 65.3% 34.7%

Dis trict 6 1 139,439 150,587 19,366 309,392 45.1% 48.7% 6.3%

Dis trict 7 2 171,874 132,727 17,921 322,522 53.3% 41.2% 5.6% Total 844,106 953,889 192,419 1,990,414 42.4% 47.9% 9.7%

Connecticut

Dis trict 1 2 203,159 81,246 7,657 292,062 69.6% 27.8% 2.6%

Dis trict 2 2 204,490 87,715 7,165 299,370 68.3% 29.3% 2.4%

Dis trict 3 2 215,702 73,633 289,335 74.6% 25.4% 0.0%

Dis trict 4 2 171,403 115,052 286,455 59.8% 40.2% 0.0%

Dis trict 5 2 142,912 134,489 277,401 51.5% 48.5% 0.0% Total 937,666 492,135 14,822 1,444,623 64.9% 34.1% 1.0%

De law ar e

At large 2 249,905 129,749 8,369 388,023 64.4% 33.4% 2.2%

Florida

Dis trict 1 1 92,907 238,363 11,165 342,435 27.1% 69.6% 3.3%

Dis trict 2 1 157,599 175,842 333,441 47.3% 52.7% 0.0%

Dis trict 3 1 102,427 204,285 8,866 315,578 32.5% 64.7% 2.8%

Dis trict 4 1 75,229 239,953 315,182 23.9% 76.1% 0.0%

Dis trict 5 2 190,650 70,766 7,986 269,402 70.8% 26.3% 3.0%

Dis trict 6 1 146,447 195,933 342,380 42.8% 57.2% 0.0%

Dis trict 7 1 130,509 185,569 316,078 41.3% 58.7% 0.0%

Dis trict 8 1 130,808 205,357 12,600 348,765 37.5% 58.9% 3.6%

Dis trict 9 2 165,098 98,984 264,082 62.5% 37.5% 0.0%

Dis trict 10 2 164,873 153,646 318,519 51.8% 48.2% 0.0%

44 RP 12/69

Votes Share of vote Dem Rep Other Total Dem Rep Other

District 11 1 120,253 218,315 338,568 35.5% 64.5% 0.0%

District 12 1 108,663 209,484 11,779 329,926 32.9% 63.5% 3.6%

District 13 1 139,671 189,552 329,223 42.4% 57.6% 0.0%

District 14 2 196,993 83,385 280,378 70.3% 29.7% 0.0%

District 15 1 01010.0%100.0%0.0%

District 16 1 161,875 187,123 348,998 46.4% 53.6% 0.0%

District 17 1 116,730 165,439 282,169 41.4% 58.6% 0.0% District 18 166,890 164,448 331,338 50.4% 49.6% 0.0%

District 19 1 109,685 189,771 6,630 306,086 35.8% 62.0% 2.2%

District 20 2 214,245 29,481 243,726 87.9% 0.0% 12.1%

District 21 2 221,188 63,122 284,310 77.8% 0.0% 22.2%

District 22 2 170,899 141,946 312,845 54.6% 45.4% 0.0%

District 23 2 174,071 98,024 3,124 275,219 63.2% 35.6% 1.1%

District 24 2 1001100.0%0.0%0.0%

District 25 1 151,361 48,709 200,070 0.0% 75.7% 24.3%

District 26 2 135,551 108,737 8,436 252,724 53.6% 43.0% 3.3%

District 27 1 84,899 138,345 6,653 229,897 36.9% 60.2% 2.9% Total 3,393,262 3,676,284 211,898 7,281,444 46.6% 50.5% 2.9%

Georgia

District 1 1 92,173 156,958 249,131 37.0% 63.0% 0.0%

District 2 2 162,244 92,275 254,519 63.7% 36.3% 0.0%

District 3 1 0 1 1 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

District 4 2 208,395 74,909 283,304 73.6% 26.4% 0.0%

District 5 2 230,271 42,751 273,022 84.3% 15.7% 0.0%

District 6 1 102,914 187,299 290,213 35.5% 64.5% 0.0%

District 7 1 95,056 156,484 251,540 37.8% 62.2% 0.0%

District 8 1 0 1 1 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

District 9 1 59,449 190,456 249,905 23.8% 76.2% 0.0%

District 10 1 0 1 1 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

District 11 1 89,892 196,512 286,404 31.4% 68.6% 0.0%

District 12 2 138,965 119,857 258,822 53.7% 46.3% 0.0%

District 13 2 200,670 79,201 279,871 71.7% 28.3% 0.0%

District 14 1 59,098 159,698 218,796 27.0% 73.0% 0.0% Total 1,439,127 1,456,403 0 2,895,530 49.7% 50.3% 0.0%

Haw aii

District 1 2 114,756 95,431 210,187 54.6% 45.4% 0.0%

District 2 2 167,085 40,285 207,370 80.6% 19.4% 0.0% Total 281,841 135,716 0 417,557 67.5% 32.5% 0.0%

Idaho

District 1 1 97,403 199,445 19,864 316,712 30.8% 63.0% 6.3%

District 2 1 110,817 207,244 318,061 34.8% 65.2% 0.0% Total 208,220 406,689 19,864 634,773 32.8% 64.1% 3.1%

Illinois

District 1 2 225,098 79,947 305,045 73.8% 26.2% 0.0%

District 2 2 181,067 67,396 38,733 287,196 63.0% 23.5% 13.5%

District 3 2 160,925 74,357 235,282 68.4% 31.6% 0.0%

District 4 2 128,385 25,749 154,134 83.3% 16.7% 0.0%

District 5 2 168,530 73,860 1,455 243,845 69.1% 30.3% 0.6%

District 6 1 131,548 191,255 322,803 40.8% 59.2% 0.0%

District 7 2 224,377 29,164 11,550 265,091 84.6% 11.0% 4.4%

District 8 2 121,298 100,360 221,658 54.7% 45.3% 0.0%

District 9 2 179,468 91,842 271,310 66.1% 33.9% 0.0%

District 10 2 130,941 128,423 259,364 50.5% 49.5% 0.0%

District 11 2 139,860 101,010 240,870 58.1% 41.9% 0.0%

District 12 2 154,621 128,582 16,747 299,950 51.5% 42.9% 5.6%

District 13 1 135,309 136,596 21,241 293,146 46.2% 46.6% 7.2%

District 14 1 123,724 176,426 300,150 41.2% 58.8% 0.0%

District 15 1 92,067 203,500 295,567 31.1% 68.9% 0.0%

District 16 1 110,828 179,867 290,695 38.1% 61.9% 0.0%

District 17 2 148,229 129,970 278,199 53.3% 46.7% 0.0%

District 18 1 84,544 243,295 327,839 25.8% 74.2% 0.0% Total 2,640,819 2,161,599 89,726 4,892,144 54.0% 44.2% 1.8%

45 RP 12/69

Votes Share of vote Dem Rep Other Total Dem Rep Other

Indiana

Dis trict 1 2 187,347 91,072 278,419 67.3% 32.7% 0.0%

Dis trict 2 1 129,977 133,806 9,313 273,096 47.6% 49.0% 3.4%

Dis trict 3 1 92,179 187,610 279,789 32.9% 67.1% 0.0%

Dis trict 4 1 92,974 168,510 10,553 272,037 34.2% 61.9% 3.9%

Dis trict 5 1 125,229 194,446 13,429 333,104 37.6% 58.4% 4.0%

Dis trict 6 1 96,627 162,519 15,954 275,100 35.1% 59.1% 5.8%

Dis trict 7 2 161,424 95,524 256,948 62.8% 37.2% 0.0%

Dis trict 8 1 122,245 151,416 10,125 283,786 43.1% 53.4% 3.6%

Dis trict 9 1 122,189 157,689 279,878 43.7% 56.3% 0.0% Total 1,130,191 1,342,592 59,374 2,532,157 44.6% 53.0% 2.3%

Iow a

Dis trict 1 2 220,795 161,864 5,671 388,330 56.9% 41.7% 1.5%

Dis trict 2 2 209,551 160,717 8,238 378,506 55.4% 42.5% 2.2%

Dis trict 3 1 167,965 201,457 15,580 385,002 43.6% 52.3% 4.0%

Dis trict 4 1 168,323 200,831 8,067 377,221 44.6% 53.2% 2.1% Total 766,634 724,869 37,556 1,529,059 50.1% 47.4% 2.5%

Kans as

Dis trict 1 1 01010.0%100.0%0.0%

Dis trict 2 1 110,075 161,476 11,956 283,507 38.8% 57.0% 4.2%

Dis trict 3 1 197,266 90,391 287,657 0.0% 68.6% 31.4%

Dis trict 4 1 79,480 158,212 15,587 253,279 31.4% 62.5% 6.2% Total 189,555 516,955 117,934 824,444 23.0% 62.7% 14.3%

Kentucky

Dis trict 1 1 87,196 199,951 287,147 30.4% 69.6% 0.0%

Dis trict 2 1 89,541 181,507 11,218 282,266 31.7% 64.3% 4.0%

Dis trict 3 2 206,368 111,446 4,819 322,633 64.0% 34.5% 1.5%

Dis trict 4 1 104,730 186,026 8,673 299,429 35.0% 62.1% 2.9%

Dis trict 5 1 54,181 194,483 248,664 21.8% 78.2% 0.0%

Dis trict 6 1 141,436 153,221 8,340 302,997 46.7% 50.6% 2.8% Total 683,452 1,026,634 33,050 1,743,136 39.2% 58.9% 1.9%

Louisiana

Dis trict 1 1 61,920 193,331 35,145 290,396 21.3% 66.6% 12.1%

Dis trict 2 2 158,184 38,748 89,868 286,800 55.2% 13.5% 31.3%

Dis trict 3 1 67,058 139,113 105,195 311,366 21.5% 44.7% 33.8%

Dis trict 4 1 187,783 61,586 249,369 0.0% 75.3% 24.7%

Dis trict 5 1 203,483 58,154 261,637 0.0% 77.8% 22.2%

Dis trict 6 1 243,594 63,214 306,808 0.0% 79.4% 20.6% Total 287,162 1,006,052 413,162 1,706,376 16.8% 59.0% 24.2%

Maine

Dis trict 1 2 233,616 127,304 360,920 64.7% 35.3% 0.0%

Dis trict 2 2 189,407 136,328 325,735 58.1% 41.9% 0.0% Total 423,023 263,632 0 686,655 61.6% 38.4% 0.0%

Maryland

Dis trict 1 1 85,468 202,130 11,939 299,537 28.5% 67.5% 4.0%

Dis trict 2 2 181,272 86,856 8,750 276,878 65.5% 31.4% 3.2%

Dis trict 3 2 196,111 87,847 10,342 294,300 66.6% 29.8% 3.5%

Dis trict 4 2 220,344 59,882 5,736 285,962 77.1% 20.9% 2.0%

Dis trict 5 2 211,816 119,768 8,870 340,454 62.2% 35.2% 2.6%

Dis trict 6 2 167,481 108,855 9,259 285,595 58.6% 38.1% 3.2%

Dis trict 7 2 226,692 62,593 7,628 296,913 76.3% 21.1% 2.6%

Dis trict 8 2 192,711 104,391 11,122 308,224 62.5% 33.9% 3.6% Total 1,481,895 832,322 73,646 2,387,863 62.1% 34.9% 3.1%

Massachusetts

Dis trict 1 2 1 0 0 1100.0%0.0%0.0%

46 RP 12/69

Votes Share of vote Dem Rep Other Total Dem Rep Other

Distric t 2 2 1001100.0%0.0%0.0%

Distric t 3 2 210,833 108,868 319,701 65.9% 34.1% 0.0%

Distric t 4 2 219,499 129,243 10,674 359,416 61.1% 36.0% 3.0%

Distric t 5 2 254,128 82,286 336,414 75.5% 24.5% 0.0%

Distric t 6 2 179,603 175,953 16,668 372,224 48.3% 47.3% 4.5%

Distric t 7 2 206,424 40,438 246,862 83.6% 0.0% 16.4%

Distric t 8 2 262,565 81,733 344,298 76.3% 23.7% 0.0%

Distric t 9 2 211,051 115,541 326,592 64.6% 35.4% 0.0% Total 1,544,104 693,624 67,780 2,305,508 67.0% 30.1% 2.9%

Michigan

Distric t 1 1 164,536 166,833 15,073 346,442 47.5% 48.2% 4.4%

Distric t 2 1 108,644 193,646 14,645 316,935 34.3% 61.1% 4.6%

Distric t 3 1 145,117 173,529 10,587 329,233 44.1% 52.7% 3.2%

Distric t 4 1 104,601 196,835 10,594 312,030 33.5% 63.1% 3.4%

Distric t 5 2 213,303 103,001 11,636 327,940 65.0% 31.4% 3.5%

Distric t 6 1 135,793 173,301 7,900 316,994 42.8% 54.7% 2.5%

Distric t 7 1 136,508 169,184 11,541 317,233 43.0% 53.3% 3.6%

Distric t 8 1 128,622 202,126 14,173 344,921 37.3% 58.6% 4.1%

Distric t 9 2 208,834 114,746 13,708 337,288 61.9% 34.0% 4.1%

Distric t 10 1 98,058 226,151 4,796 329,005 29.8% 68.7% 1.5%

Distric t 11 1 158,889 181,796 17,461 358,146 44.4% 50.8% 4.9%

Distric t 12 2 216,537 92,305 9,867 318,709 67.9% 29.0% 3.1%

Distric t 13 2 235,258 38,765 10,165 284,188 82.8% 13.6% 3.6%

Distric t 14 2 270,184 51,395 6,945 328,524 82.2% 15.6% 2.1% Total 2,324,884 2,083,613 159,091 4,567,588 50.9% 45.6% 3.5%

Minnesota

Distric t 1 2 193,209 142,159 335,368 57.6% 42.4% 0.0%

Distric t 2 1 164,335 193,586 357,921 45.9% 54.1% 0.0%

Distric t 3 1 159,936 222,333 382,269 41.8% 58.2% 0.0%

Distric t 4 2 216,680 109,656 21,132 347,468 62.4% 31.6% 6.1%

Distric t 5 2 262,101 88,753 350,854 74.7% 25.3% 0.0%

Distric t 6 1 175,923 180,131 356,054 49.4% 50.6% 0.0%

Distric t 7 2 197,540 114,102 15,294 326,936 60.4% 34.9% 4.7%

Distric t 8 2 192,748 161,113 353,861 54.5% 45.5% 0.0% Total 1,562,472 1,211,833 36,426 2,810,731 55.6% 43.1% 1.3%

Mississippi

Distric t 1 1 107,938 178,594 7,921 294,453 36.7% 60.7% 2.7%

Distric t 2 2 199,554 90,861 5,741 296,156 67.4% 30.7% 1.9%

Distric t 3 1 223,596 55,703 279,299 0.0% 80.1% 19.9%

Distric t 4 1 77,041 173,576 19,274 269,891 28.5% 64.3% 7.1% Total 384,533 666,627 88,639 1,139,799 33.7% 58.5% 7.8%

Missouri

Distric t 1 2 264,836 60,306 11,725 336,867 78.6% 17.9% 3.5%

Distric t 2 1 145,257 235,607 11,144 392,008 37.1% 60.1% 2.8%

Distric t 3 1 111,116 214,660 12,343 338,119 32.9% 63.5% 3.7%

Distric t 4 1 113,044 192,166 13,352 318,562 35.5% 60.3% 4.2%

Distric t 5 2 196,467 121,437 8,432 326,336 60.2% 37.2% 2.6%

Distric t 6 1 108,414 216,721 8,269 333,404 32.5% 65.0% 2.5%

Distric t 7 1 98,384 203,358 16,656 318,398 30.9% 63.9% 5.2%

Distric t 8 1 73,720 215,975 10,544 300,239 24.6% 71.9% 3.5% Total 1,111,238 1,460,230 92,465 2,663,933 41.7% 54.8% 3.5%

Montana

At large 1 203,748 252,707 18,933 475,388 42.9% 53.2% 4.0%

47 RP 12/69

Votes Share of vote Dem Rep Other Total Dem Rep Other

Nebraska

District 1 1 78,732 171,385 250,117 31.5% 68.5% 0.0%

District 2 1 121,165 127,119 248,284 48.8% 51.2% 0.0%

District 3 1 64,257 184,978 249,235 25.8% 74.2% 0.0% Total 264,154 483,482 0 747,636 35.3% 64.7% 0.0%

Ne vada

District 1 2 113,377 56,357 8,734 178,468 63.5% 31.6% 4.9%

District 2 1 101,594 161,915 17,088 280,597 36.2% 57.7% 6.1%

District 3 1 116,385 136,905 18,367 271,657 42.8% 50.4% 6.8%

District 4 2 120,096 101,136 18,684 239,916 50.1% 42.2% 7.8% Total 451,452 456,313 62,873 970,638 46.5% 47.0% 6.5%

Ne w Ham ps hir e

District 1 2 171,356 158,482 14,968 344,806 49.7% 46.0% 4.3%

District 2 2 168,954 151,858 15,779 336,591 50.2% 45.1% 4.7% Total 340,310 310,340 30,747 681,397 49.9% 45.5% 4.5%

Ne w Je r s e y

District 1 2 194,303 86,820 5,059 286,182 67.9% 30.3% 1.8%

District 2 1 108,288 156,799 4,642 269,729 40.1% 58.1% 1.7%

District 3 1 134,599 161,452 3,547 299,598 44.9% 53.9% 1.2%

District 4 1 86,380 189,548 2,966 278,894 31.0% 68.0% 1.1%

District 5 1 117,973 154,359 6,029 278,361 42.4% 55.5% 2.2%

District 6 2 141,852 79,128 2,770 223,750 63.4% 35.4% 1.2%

District 7 1 116,445 167,736 7,843 292,024 39.9% 57.4% 2.7%

District 8 2 118,904 28,810 4,519 152,233 78.1% 18.9% 3.0%

District 9 2 146,939 50,772 1,997 199,708 73.6% 25.4% 1.0%

District 10 2 185,196 23,015 3,924 212,135 87.3% 10.8% 1.8%

District 11 1 113,554 167,368 3,243 284,165 40.0% 58.9% 1.1%

District 12 2 177,238 76,824 3,276 257,338 68.9% 29.9% 1.3% Total 1,641,671 1,342,631 49,815 3,034,117 54.1% 44.3% 1.6%

New Mexico

District 1 2 159,275 110,370 269,645 59.1% 40.9% 0.0%

District 2 1 91,561 132,250 223,811 40.9% 59.1% 0.0%

District 3 2 164,620 96,837 261,457 63.0% 37.0% 0.0% Total 415,456 339,457 0 754,913 55.0% 45.0% 0.0%

Ne w Yor k

District 1 2 132,525 121,478 254,003 52.2% 47.8% 0.0%

District 2 1 92,060 131,091 223,151 41.3% 58.7% 0.0%

District 3 2 136,687 99,183 1,806 237,676 57.5% 41.7% 0.8%

District 4 2 138,561 72,673 13,243 224,477 61.7% 32.4% 5.9%

District 5 2 146,278 15,640 1,161 163,079 89.7% 9.6% 0.7%

District 6 2 100,571 46,305 1,729 148,605 67.7% 31.2% 1.2%

District 7 2 116,873 6,823 123,696 94.5% 5.5% 0.0%

District 8 2 159,463 15,546 2,098 177,107 90.0% 8.8% 1.2%

District 9 2 165,201 21,984 2,700 189,885 87.0% 11.6% 1.4%

District 10 2 145,381 34,848 180,229 80.7% 19.3% 0.0%

District 11 1 82,401 94,102 1,782 178,285 46.2% 52.8% 1.0%

District 12 2 158,834 37,580 196,414 80.9% 19.1% 0.0%

District 13 2 152,592 10,546 4,874 168,012 90.8% 6.3% 2.9%

District 14 2 108,436 19,934 2,322 130,692 83.0% 15.3% 1.8%

District 15 2 132,505 3,983 136,488 97.1% 2.9% 0.0%

District 16 2 137,213 37,860 2,052 177,125 77.5% 21.4% 1.2%

District 17 2 139,876 75,736 2,164 217,776 64.2% 34.8% 1.0%

District 18 2 130,462 121,911 252,373 51.7% 48.3% 0.0%

District 19 1 120,661 138,657 259,318 46.5% 53.5% 0.0%

District 20 2 188,055 86,740 274,795 68.4% 31.6% 0.0%

District 21 2 115,883 110,804 3,683 230,370 50.3% 48.1% 1.6%

District 22 1 93,681 146,055 239,736 39.1% 60.9% 0.0%

District 23 1 117,055 126,519 243,574 48.1% 51.9% 0.0%

District 24 2 130,969 118,578 21,327 270,874 48.4% 43.8% 7.9%

48 RP 12/69

Votes Share of vote Dem Rep Other Total Dem Rep Other

Dis tric t 25 2 166,342 124,585 290,927 57.2% 42.8% 0.0%

Dis tric t 26 2 197,799 67,209 265,008 74.6% 25.4% 0.0%

Dis tric t 27 1 146,134 150,446 296,580 49.3% 50.7% 0.0% Total 3,652,498 2,036,816 60,941 5,750,255 63.5% 35.4% 1.1%

North Carolina

Dis tric t 1 2 250,948 76,558 6,031 333,537 75.2% 23.0% 1.8%

Dis tric t 2 1 129,307 174,565 8,460 312,332 41.4% 55.9% 2.7%

Dis tric t 3 1 112,546 192,976 305,522 36.8% 63.2% 0.0%

Dis tric t 4 2 265,432 91,512 356,944 74.4% 25.6% 0.0%

Dis tric t 5 1 147,649 200,083 347,732 42.5% 57.5% 0.0%

Dis tric t 6 1 141,214 220,296 361,510 39.1% 60.9% 0.0% District 7 167,590 167,057 334,647 50.1% 49.9% 0.0%

Dis tric t 8 1 134,891 159,226 294,117 45.9% 54.1% 0.0%

Dis tric t 9 1 170,462 193,174 9,553 373,189 45.7% 51.8% 2.6%

Dis tric t 10 1 142,822 189,667 332,489 43.0% 57.0% 0.0%

Dis tric t 11 1 140,216 189,289 329,505 42.6% 57.4% 0.0%

Dis tric t 12 2 246,451 62,924 309,375 79.7% 20.3% 0.0%

Dis tric t 13 1 169,637 225,791 395,428 42.9% 57.1% 0.0% Total 2,219,165 2,143,118 24,044 4,386,327 50.6% 48.9% 0.5%

Nor th Dak ota

At large 1 131,396 172,905 10,215 314,516 41.8% 55.0% 3.2%

Ohio

Dis tric t 1 1 125,030 196,783 15,596 337,409 37.1% 58.3% 4.6%

Dis tric t 2 1 131,256 189,400 320,656 40.9% 59.1% 0.0%

Dis tric t 3 2 188,831 74,938 14,819 278,588 67.8% 26.9% 5.3%

Dis tric t 4 1 110,663 179,458 15,487 305,608 36.2% 58.7% 5.1%

Dis tric t 5 1 133,471 197,435 11,971 342,877 38.9% 57.6% 3.5%

Dis tric t 6 1 139,438 159,621 299,059 46.6% 53.4% 0.0%

Dis tric t 7 1 133,686 174,826 308,512 43.3% 56.7% 0.0%

Dis tric t 8 1 0 1 0 1 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

Dis tric t 9 2 206,763 66,844 11,119 284,726 72.6% 23.5% 3.9%

Dis tric t 10 1 124,079 202,166 9,729 335,974 36.9% 60.2% 2.9%

Dis tric t 11 2 1 0 0 1 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Dis tric t 12 1 129,259 227,079 356,338 36.3% 63.7% 0.0%

Dis tric t 13 2 227,032 86,261 313,293 72.5% 27.5% 0.0%

Dis tric t 14 1 127,467 179,704 23,634 330,805 38.5% 54.3% 7.1%

Dis tric t 15 1 123,201 199,598 322,799 38.2% 61.8% 0.0%

Dis tric t 16 1 165,638 181,137 346,775 47.8% 52.2% 0.0% Total 2,065,815 2,315,251 102,355 4,483,421 46.1% 51.6% 2.3%

Ok lahom a

Dis tric t 1 1 91,310 180,886 12,786 284,982 32.0% 63.5% 4.5%

Dis tric t 2 1 95,763 143,253 10,794 249,810 38.3% 57.3% 4.3%

Dis tric t 3 1 53,295 200,963 12,756 267,014 20.0% 75.3% 4.8%

Dis tric t 4 1 71,755 176,561 11,725 260,041 27.6% 67.9% 4.5%

Dis tric t 5 1 97,359 153,421 10,542 261,322 37.3% 58.7% 4.0% Total 409,482 855,084 58,603 1,323,169 30.9% 64.6% 4.4%

Oregon

Dis tric t 1 2 185,198 102,898 21,602 309,698 59.8% 33.2% 7.0%

Dis tric t 2 1 87,693 211,294 6,195 305,182 28.7% 69.2% 2.0%

Dis tric t 3 2 253,838 68,068 18,600 340,506 74.5% 20.0% 5.5%

Dis tric t 4 2 200,536 134,782 5,837 341,155 58.8% 39.5% 1.7%

Dis tric t 5 2 173,015 136,158 10,716 319,889 54.1% 42.6% 3.3% Total 900,280 653,200 62,950 1,616,430 55.7% 40.4% 3.9%

49 RP 12/69

Votes Share of vote Dem Rep Other Total Dem Rep Other

Pennsylvania

District 1 2 225,985 39,736 265,721 85.0% 15.0% 0.0%

District 2 2 301,869 31,648 4,243 337,760 89.4% 9.4% 1.3%

District 3 1 120,142 160,149 12,352 292,643 41.1% 54.7% 4.2%

District 4 1 103,387 179,340 17,560 300,287 34.4% 59.7% 5.8%

District 5 1 101,615 172,042 273,657 37.1% 62.9% 0.0%

District 6 2 183,647 138,688 322,335 57.0% 43.0% 0.0%

District 7 1 139,067 203,977 343,044 40.5% 59.5% 0.0%

District 8 1 152,515 199,283 351,798 43.4% 56.6% 0.0%

District 9 1 103,420 166,038 269,458 38.4% 61.6% 0.0%

District 10 1 91,355 176,273 267,628 34.1% 65.9% 0.0%

District 11 1 116,315 163,733 280,048 41.5% 58.5% 0.0%

District 12 1 161,397 173,340 334,737 48.2% 51.8% 0.0%

District 13 2 204,686 92,308 296,994 68.9% 31.1% 0.0%

District 14 2 249,012 74,955 323,967 76.9% 23.1% 0.0%

District 15 1 126,661 165,629 292,290 43.3% 56.7% 0.0%

District 16 1 109,026 154,337 17,151 280,514 38.9% 55.0% 6.1%

District 17 2 157,629 102,754 260,383 60.5% 39.5% 0.0%

District 18 1 119,791 212,712 332,503 36.0% 64.0% 0.0% Total 2,767,519 2,606,942 51,306 5,425,767 51.0% 48.0% 0.9%

Rhode Island

District 1 2 106,044 84,018 12,326 202,388 52.4% 41.5% 6.1%

District 2 2 121,556 76,852 19,877 218,285 55.7% 35.2% 9.1% Total 227,600 160,870 32,203 420,673 54.1% 38.2% 7.7%

South Carolina

District 1 1 100,351 176,738 6,250 283,339 35.4% 62.4% 2.2%

District 2 1 01010.0%100.0%0.0%

District 3 1 84,312 168,780 253,092 33.3% 66.7% 0.0%

District 4 1 89,094 171,505 3,341 263,940 33.8% 65.0% 1.3%

District 5 1 122,268 153,047 275,315 44.4% 55.6% 0.0%

District 6 2 213,953 12,713 226,666 94.4% 0.0% 5.6%

District 7 1 121,418 147,750 269,168 45.1% 54.9% 0.0% Total 731,396 817,821 22,304 1,571,521 46.5% 52.0% 1.4%

South Dakota

At large 1 153,725 207,581 361,306 42.5% 57.5% 0.0%

Tennessee

District 1 1 47,597 182,186 9,746 239,529 19.9% 76.1% 4.1%

District 2 1 53,336 193,312 12,897 259,545 20.5% 74.5% 5.0%

District 3 1 91,031 157,725 7,897 256,653 35.5% 61.5% 3.1%

District 4 1 101,944 128,500 230,444 44.2% 55.8% 0.0%

District 5 2 166,999 83,982 5,058 256,039 65.2% 32.8% 2.0%

District 6 1 184,264 56,359 240,623 0.0% 76.6% 23.4%

District 7 1 61,050 180,775 11,531 253,356 24.1% 71.4% 4.6%

District 8 1 79,347 190,571 8,996 278,914 28.4% 68.3% 3.2%

District 9 2 188,245 59,676 2,812 250,733 75.1% 23.8% 1.1% Total 789,549 1,360,991 115,296 2,265,836 34.8% 60.1% 5.1%

Texas

District 1 1 67,758 182,621 4,161 254,540 26.6% 71.7% 1.6%

District 2 1 80,262 159,369 6,130 245,761 32.7% 64.8% 2.5%

District 3 1 01010.0%100.0%0.0%

District 4 1 60,124 182,416 7,246 249,786 24.1% 73.0% 2.9%

District 5 1 69,025 134,005 4,957 207,987 33.2% 64.4% 2.4%

District 6 1 97,933 144,892 6,858 249,683 39.2% 58.0% 2.7%

District 7 1 85,253 142,477 6,465 234,195 36.4% 60.8% 2.8%

District 8 1 50,077 191,254 5,851 247,182 20.3% 77.4% 2.4%

District 9 2 143,850 36,073 3,342 183,265 78.5% 19.7% 1.8%

District 10 1 95,316 159,391 8,497 263,204 36.2% 60.6% 3.2%

District 11 1 41,842 177,166 6,283 225,291 18.6% 78.6% 2.8%

50 RP 12/69

Votes Share of vote Dem Rep Other Total Dem Rep Other

Dis trict 12 1 65,991 175,298 5,968 247,257 26.7% 70.9% 2.4%

Dis trict 13 1 187,385 18,566 205,951 0.0% 91.0% 9.0%

Dis trict 14 1 109,264 130,937 4,647 244,848 44.6% 53.5% 1.9%

Dis trict 15 1 53,892 89,143 3,302 146,337 36.8% 60.9% 2.3%

Dis trict 16 2 100,804 50,478 2,529 153,811 65.5% 32.8% 1.6%

Dis trict 17 1 143,126 35,902 179,028 0.0% 79.9% 20.1%

Dis trict 18 2 145,893 43,926 4,678 194,497 75.0% 22.6% 2.4%

Dis trict 19 1 160,067 28,345 188,412 0.0% 85.0% 15.0%

Dis trict 20 2 118,719 62,041 4,738 185,498 64.0% 33.4% 2.6%

Dis trict 21 1 108,852 186,525 12,469 307,846 35.4% 60.6% 4.1%

Dis trict 22 1 80,025 160,471 10,023 250,519 31.9% 64.1% 4.0%

Dis trict 23 2 96,477 87,255 7,926 191,658 50.3% 45.5% 4.1%

Dis trict 24 1 87,347 148,207 7,226 242,780 36.0% 61.0% 3.0%

Dis trict 25 1 98,427 153,868 10,822 263,117 37.4% 58.5% 4.1%

Dis trict 26 1 73,661 175,669 7,780 257,110 28.6% 68.3% 3.0%

Dis trict 27 1 83,280 120,490 8,553 212,323 39.2% 56.7% 4.0%

Dis trict 28 2 112,262 49,095 3,856 165,213 67.9% 29.7% 2.3%

Dis trict 29 2 85,920 9,538 95,458 90.0% 0.0% 10.0%

Dis trict 30 2 169,889 40,841 4,693 215,423 78.9% 19.0% 2.2%

Dis trict 31 1 82,791 145,096 8,846 236,733 35.0% 61.3% 3.7%

Dis trict 32 1 98,867 146,129 5,664 250,660 39.4% 58.3% 2.3%

Dis trict 33 2 84,940 30,152 2,006 117,098 72.5% 25.7% 1.7%

Dis trict 34 2 88,781 51,338 2,685 142,804 62.2% 35.9% 1.9%

Dis trict 35 2 105,260 52,686 6,591 164,537 64.0% 32.0% 4.0%

Dis trict 36 1 62,052 165,388 6,274 233,714 26.6% 70.8% 2.7% Total 2,904,834 4,265,276 283,417 7,453,527 39.0% 57.2% 3.8%

Utah

Dis trict 1 1 55,740 161,546 8,603 225,889 24.7% 71.5% 3.8%

Dis trict 2 1 75,399 139,860 9,362 224,621 33.6% 62.3% 4.2%

Dis trict 3 1 55,879 180,760 236,639 23.6% 76.4% 0.0%

Dis trict 4 2 108,275 105,629 5,703 219,607 49.3% 48.1% 2.6% Total 295,293 587,795 23,668 906,756 32.6% 64.8% 2.6%

Vermont

At large 2 209,271 67,511 13,678 290,460 72.0% 23.2% 4.7%

Virginia

Dis trict 1 1 146,844 200,736 10,295 357,875 41.0% 56.1% 2.9%

Dis trict 2 1 141,697 164,977 306,674 46.2% 53.8% 0.0%

Dis trict 3 2 246,155 57,007 303,162 81.2% 18.8% 0.0%

Dis trict 4 1 149,504 198,999 348,503 42.9% 57.1% 0.0%

Dis trict 5 1 149,906 192,020 5,439 347,365 43.2% 55.3% 1.6%

Dis trict 6 1 109,929 209,701 319,630 34.4% 65.6% 0.0%

Dis trict 7 1 157,249 222,345 379,594 41.4% 58.6% 0.0%

Dis trict 8 1 99,964 210,347 15,428 325,739 30.7% 64.6% 4.7%

Dis trict 9 1 115,972 183,278 299,250 38.8% 61.2% 0.0%

Dis trict 10 1 131,875 201,937 9,496 343,308 38.4% 58.8% 2.8%

Dis trict 11 2 176,686 102,970 8,263 287,919 61.4% 35.8% 2.9% Total 1,625,781 1,944,317 48,921 3,619,019 44.9% 53.7% 1.4%

Washington

Dis trict 1 2 156,393 135,637 292,030 53.6% 46.4% 0.0%

Dis trict 2 2 165,136 106,053 271,189 60.9% 39.1% 0.0%

Dis trict 3 1 108,944 164,157 273,101 39.9% 60.1% 0.0%

Dis trict 4 1 69,191 140,722 209,913 33.0% 67.0% 0.0%

Dis trict 5 1 102,915 168,830 271,745 37.9% 62.1% 0.0%

Dis trict 6 2 172,882 120,518 293,400 58.9% 41.1% 0.0%

Dis trict 7 2 258,730 66,889 325,619 79.5% 20.5% 0.0%

Dis trict 8 1 110,063 164,667 274,730 40.1% 59.9% 0.0%

Dis trict 9 2 169,556 67,799 237,355 71.4% 28.6% 0.0%

Dis trict 10 1 106,232 148,601 254,833 41.7% 58.3% 0.0% Total 1,420,042 1,283,873 0 2,703,915 52.5% 47.5% 0.0%

West Virginia

Dis trict 1 1 78,474 130,783 209,257 37.5% 62.5% 0.0%

Dis trict 2 1 67,965 156,920 224,885 30.2% 69.8% 0.0%

Dis trict 3 2 107,302 91,602 198,904 53.9% 46.1% 0.0% Total 253,741 379,305 0 633,046 40.1% 59.9% 0.0%

51 RP 12/69

Votes Share of vote Dem Rep Other Total Dem Rep Other

Wisconsin

District 1 1 157,721 199,715 6,029 363,465 43.4% 54.9% 1.7%

District 2 2 264,790 124,465 389,255 68.0% 32.0% 0.0%

District 3 2 217,328 121,536 338,864 64.1% 35.9% 0.0%

District 4 2 234,823 80,637 9,253 324,713 72.3% 24.8% 2.8%

District 5 1 117,972 249,267 367,239 32.1% 67.9% 0.0%

District 6 1 136,146 223,514 359,660 37.9% 62.1% 0.0%

District 7 1 157,340 201,318 358,658 43.9% 56.1% 0.0%

District 8 1 156,371 198,464 354,835 44.1% 55.9% 0.0% Total 1,442,491 1,398,916 15,282 2,856,689 50.5% 49.0% 0.5%

Wyom ing

At large 1 57,148 165,773 17,087 240,008 23.8% 69.1% 7.1%

Notes: Vote Totals are provisional

Where a candidate w as unopposed, that party is show n w ith 1 notional vote for statistical purposes

4 districts, in Arizona, California, Florida and North Carolina w ere not resolved at time of publication

In a few cases, due to State primary election rules, 2 candidates of the same party opposed each other in the General election. Where this occurred, the leading candidate is show n in the relevant party line, and their opponenet is listed under "other"

52 RP 12/69

4. APPENDIX 4

US State Governor Elections 2012: results by state

Democrat Republican Others State Result Candidate Votes % vote Candidate Votes % vote Votes % vote Total

Delaware Dem Hold Jack Markell 275,991 69.3% Jeff Cragg 113,792 28.6% 8,243 2.1% 398,026 Indiana Rep Hold John Gregg 1,187,508 46.4% Mike Pence 1,268,076 49.6% 101,326 4.0% 2,556,910 Missouri Dem Hold Jay Nixon 1,485,147 54.7% Dave Spence 1,157,475 42.6% 73,196 2.7% 2,715,818 Montana Dem Hold Steve Bullock 234,980 49.0% Rick Hill 226,555 47.3% 17,729 3.7% 479,264 New Hampshire Dem Hold Maggie Hassan 378,258 54.6% Ovide Lamontagne 294,477 42.5% 19,868 2.9% 692,603 North Carolina Rep Gain Walter Dalton 1,931,750 43.2% Pat McCrory 2,447,988 54.7% 95,154 2.1% 4,474,892 North Dakota Rep Hold Ryan Taylor 108,622 34.3% Jack Dalrymple 199,769 63.2% 7,945 2.5% 316,336 Utah Rep Hold Peter Cooke 253,514 27.7% Gary Herbert 624,678 68.4% 35,504 3.9% 913,696 Vermont Dem Hold Peter Shumlin 170,767 58.0% Randy Brock 110,953 37.7% 12,734 4.3% 294,454 Washington Dem Hold 1,431,616 51.3% Rob McKenna 1,360,262 48.7% 0 0.0% 2,791,878 West Virginia Dem Hold Earl Ray Tomblin 331,116 50.5% Bill Maloney 299,682 45.7% 25,236 3.8% 656,034

53 RP 12/69

54 RP 12/69

5. APPENDIX 5

55