Indicators for Traffic Safety Assessment and Prediction and Their Application in Micro-Simulation Modelling: a Study of Urban and Suburban Intersections
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Indicators for traffic safety assessment and prediction and their application in micro-simulation modelling: A study of urban and suburban intersections Jeffery Archer DEPARTMENT OF INFRASTRUCTURE Division for Transport and Logistics, ToL Centre for Transport Research, CTR The Greater Stockholm area defined by accident occurrence (from STRADA) Doctoral Thesis Stockholm, Sweden 2005 DEPARTMENT OF INFRASTRUCTURE Division for Transportation and Logistics, ToL Centre for Transportation Research, CTR Indicators for traffic safety assessment and prediction and their application in micro-simulation modelling: A study of urban and suburban intersections Jeffery Archer Doctoral Dissertation Royal Institute of Technology Stockholm, Sweden 2005 Picture on front cover represents the county of Stockholm defined by accident occurrence (data from STRADA) © Jeffery Archer ROYAL INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan (KTH) Department of Infrastructure Division of Transport and Logistics Centre for Traffic Research SE-100 44 Stockholm, SWEDEN Telephone +46 8 790 60 00 Fax +46 8 790 65 00 TRITA-INFRA 05-013 ISSN 1651-0216 ISRN KTH/INFRA/--05/013--SE ISBN 91-7323-119-3 Acknowledgements Acknowledgements The work presented in this thesis has been prepared at the Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Stockholm, in accordance with several research projects commissioned by VINNOVA (formerly KFB) and the Swedish Road Authority (SRA). These projects include EMV, concerned with the further development of the Swedish effect-relationship models and knowledge base; and VTLKomb, concerned with the evaluation of traffic management and control systems. Both of these projects have been under the leadership of professor Karl- Lennart Bång at the Department of Transportation and Logistics (ToL). Part of the earlier work on this thesis was carried out as part of the SINDI-project based at the Centre for Transportation Research (CTR) and at the Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI). This project was led by Dr. Gunnar Lind. CTR is a joint venture between KTH and VTI that is managed by professor Ingmar Andréasson. Work has also been carried out as part of the Hornsgatan demonstration project led by Patrik Wirsenius at SWECO VBB. This project has been commissioned by the Stockholm Office for Road and Real-Estate Management (GFK), and is concerned with the development of a safe city street. Special thanks to Malin Rosén and Jessica Fellers at SWECO VBB who made valuable contributions to the conflict observation study carried out as part of the work on the initial stages of this project. The main results of this safety study are presented in Chapter 6 of this thesis. Special thanks to professors Karl-Lennart Bång and Ingmar Andréasson for their support and encouragement during the preparation of this thesis, and during my term at KTH. Thanks also to all past and present colleagues at ToL and CTR. Stefan Eriksson deserves special credit for all his help and assistance during countless hours of field study, as does Azhar Al-Mudhaffar for his advice regarding the incident reduction function reported in Chapter 10. My good friend and colleague Andrew Cunningham at SWECO VBB also deserves credit for his much appreciated humour, and qualified knowledge and support on many issues, particularly those related to traffic signalling, micro-simulation and traffic analysis. Thanks also to Pontus Matstoms at VTI, and Åse Svensson at the Department Traffic Planning and Engineering (TFT), University of Lund, for their advice regarding this work. Lastly, very special thanks to my fiancée Malin Frising for her great understanding, support and encouragement during the preparation of this thesis. Stockholm, 20th February 2005 Jeffery Archer I II Contents Contents Part I: BACKGROUND Chapters 1 - 3 Part II: PREDICTIVE MODELLING AND SAFETY MEASUREMENT CONCEPTS AND TECHNIQUES Chapters 4 - 7 Part III: SIMULATION AS A DYNAMIC MODELLING APPROACH TO SAFETY ESTIMATION Chapters 8 - 10 Part IV: SYNTHESIS AND FINAL CONCLUSIONS Chapter 11 1. General introduction.....................................................................................................3 1.1 Traffic development.....................................................................................................................................3 1.2 The scope of the traffic safety problem....................................................................................................3 1.3 Traffic safety research from a historical perspective ..............................................................................5 1.4 General Systems Theory as an descriptive approach to traffic safety..................................................6 1.5 Traffic safety measurement and analysis ..................................................................................................7 1.5.1 Use of historical accident data.....................................................................................................7 1.5.2 Proximal safety indicators as an alternative approach.............................................................7 1.6 Traffic safety modelling...............................................................................................................................9 1.6.1 Mainstream modelling approaches.............................................................................................9 1.6.2 Modelling approaches based on traffic simulation ................................................................10 1.7 Aims and goals............................................................................................................................................12 2. Swedish traffic safety statistics and the identification of urban area problems....... 13 2.1 Traffic safety statistics for Sweden ..........................................................................................................13 2.1.1 General accident and exposure data.........................................................................................13 2.1.2 Accident types and road-user risk levels..................................................................................14 2.1.3 Accidents in urban areas vs. rural areas and motorways.......................................................15 2.1.4 Accidents at intersections...........................................................................................................17 2.2 Safety data collection and analysis ...........................................................................................................18 2.2.1 Accident and exposure data sources in Sweden.....................................................................18 2.2.2 Accident data quality and the problem of underreporting ...................................................19 2.3 Accident data and the dimensions of traffic safety...............................................................................21 III Contents 3. Understanding traffic accidents and the reasons for their occurrence ....................23 3.1 Accident analysis.........................................................................................................................................23 3.2 Large-scale longitudinal accident studies................................................................................................24 3.2.1 The UK study ..............................................................................................................................24 3.2.2 The French study.........................................................................................................................24 3.2.3 The US study................................................................................................................................25 3.3 Accidents and traffic system complexity ................................................................................................25 3.4 Accident causation and the human element ..........................................................................................26 3.5 Driver performance and error frequency ...............................................................................................28 3.6 Perceptual and cognitive limitations and information-processing .....................................................28 3.7 Traffic safety and the concept of risk .....................................................................................................30 3.8 Other models and theories of driver behaviour and performance.....................................................31 3.9 Accident causation and safety countermeasures ...................................................................................31 3.10 Implications of accident causation for safety analysis work..............................................................32 4. Traffic safety and predictive modelling......................................................................35 4.1 Predicting safety impact: SRA “effect-relationship” models...............................................................35 4.2 Predictive safety modelling approaches..................................................................................................36 4.3 Accident prediction based on ‘near-accidents’...........................................................................................39 5. Proximal safety indicator concepts and measurement techniques.......................... 41 5.1 Proximal