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Elsevier Editorial System(Tm) for Journal of Hydrology Manuscript Draft Elsevier Editorial System(tm) for Journal of Hydrology Manuscript Draft Manuscript Number: Title: Simulating the impacts of climate change on streamflow and other hydrological variables in the upper North Saskatchewan River basin, Alberta, Canada Article Type: Special Issue on Hydrology Conference Keywords: hydrological modeling; climate change; Alberta; Canada; verification analysis; streamflow Corresponding Author: Dr. Stefan W. Kienzle, Ph.D. Corresponding Author's Institution: University of Lethbridge First Author: Stefan W. Kienzle, Ph.D. Order of Authors: Stefan W. Kienzle, Ph.D.; Michael W Nemeth, MSc; James M Byrne, PhD; Ryan J MacDonald, MSc Abstract: The ACRU agro-hydrological modeling system provided the framework, containing code to simulate all major hydrological processes, including actual evapotranspiration estimates, to simulate the impacts of climate change in the Cline River watershed, Alberta, Canada, under historical (1961- 1990) and a range of future climate conditions (2010-2039, 2040-2069, and 2070-2099). Whilst uncertainties in the estimation of many hydrological variables were inevitable, verification analyses carried out for the historical baseline period resulted in good to very good simulations of a range of hydrological processes, including daily air temperature, snow water equivalent and streamflow. Five climate change scenarios were selected to cover the range of possible future climate conditions. In order to generate future climate time series, the 30-year baseline time series was perturbed according to predicted changes in air temperature and precipitation. Projected increases in air temperature and precipitation resulted in mean annual increases in potential and actual evapotranspiration, groundwater recharge, soil moisture, and streamflow in the Cline River watershed. Increases in both high and low flow magnitudes and frequencies, and large increases to winter and spring streamflows are predicted for all climate scenarios. Spring runoff and peak streamflows were simulated to occur up to four weeks earlier than in the 1961-1990 baseline period. Predicted changes were simulated to progressively Cover Letter Dr. Stefan W. Kienzle Dept. of Geography University of Lethbridge Lethbridge, AB, T1K 3M4 Canada Lethbridge, Nov. 29, 2010 Dear Editor, Please consider the submitted manuscript entitled “Simulating the impacts of climate change on streamflow and other hydrological variables in the upper North Saskatchewan River basin, Alberta, Canada” for publication in your Special Issue “Hydrology Conference”. Figures 2 to 6 were published and/or are submitted for publication in the Journals “Hydrological Processes” and “Hydrological Sciences Journal”. I am in the process or acquiring permission to use the Figures for this publication. I intent and prefer to publish the color Figures in the paper version, however, if the cost of color publication should be prohibitive for me, I would convert some or all Figures into gray scale and re-submit them. Sincerely, Stefan W. Kienzle Associate Professor for Hydrology and GIS Manuscript Click here to download Manuscript: Kienzle_etal_JH_2010_Manuscript2.docx Click here to view linked References P a g e | 1 1 Simulating the impacts of climate change on streamflow and 2 other hydrological variables in the upper North Saskatchewan 3 River basin, Alberta, Canada 4 5 Stefan W. Kienzlea*, Michael W. Nemetha, James M. Byrnea, Ryan J. Macdonalda 6 a Department of Geography, University of Lethbridge, Lethbridge, Alberta Water and Environmental 7 Science Building, 4401 University Drive,T1K 3M4, Canada 8 *Corresponding author. E-mail address: [email protected]; Phone: 1.403.380.1875;Department 9 of Geography, University of Lethbridge, Alberta Water and Environmental Science Building, 4401 10 University Drive, Lethbridge, Alberta, T1K 3M4, Canada 11 12 Received; revised; accepted 13 14 Abstract 15 The ACRU agro-hydrological modeling system provided the framework, 16 containing code to simulate all major hydrological processes, including actual 17 evapotranspiration estimates, to simulate the impacts of climate change in the Cline 18 River watershed, Alberta, Canada, under historical (1961-1990) and a range of future 19 climate conditions (2010-2039, 2040-2069, and 2070-2099). Whilst uncertainties in 20 the estimation of many hydrological variables were inevitable, verification analyses 21 carried out for the historical baseline period resulted in good to very good simulations 22 of a range of hydrological processes, including daily air temperature, snow water 23 equivalent and streamflow. Five climate change scenarios were selected to cover the 24 range of possible future climate conditions. In order to generate future climate time 25 series, the 30-year baseline time series was perturbed according to predicted changes P a g e | 2 1 in air temperature and precipitation. Projected increases in air temperature and 2 precipitation resulted in mean annual increases in potential and actual 3 evapotranspiration, groundwater recharge, soil moisture, and streamflow in the Cline 4 River watershed. Increases in both high and low flow magnitudes and frequencies, 5 and large increases to winter and spring streamflows are predicted for all climate 6 scenarios. Spring runoff and peak streamflows were simulated to occur up to four 7 weeks earlier than in the 1961-1990 baseline period. Predicted changes were 8 simulated to progressively increase into the future. A clear shift in the future 9 hydrological regime is predicted, with significantly higher streamflows between 10 October and June, and lower streamflow in July to September. 11 12 Keywords: hydrological modeling; climate change; Alberta; Canada; verification 13 analysis; streamflow 14 15 1. Introduction 16 Mountain watersheds are the key source of water and provide significant water 17 yields to downstream users. The Rocky Mountain watersheds along the eastern slopes 18 of central Alberta, Canada, are predicted to be exposed to increased air temperatures 19 and increased precipitation during the 21st century (IPCC, 2007). In regions which are 20 expected to maintain or exceed historical water yields due to projected increases in 21 precipitation, the hydrological regime is expected to change in terms of timing and 22 magnitudes of seasonal streamflows (Byrne and Kienzle, 2008). In hybrid watersheds 23 both snowmelt and rainfall events occur, and consequently the watershed behavior is 24 dominated by contrasting hydrological processes, and may respond uniquely to 25 changes of the future climate (Loukas and Quick, 1996; Whitfield et al., 2003). Gleick P a g e | 3 1 (1987), Lettenmaier and Gan (1990) and others reported that increasing air 2 temperatures by a few °C could dramatically affect the timing of runoff in mountain 3 watersheds in the western USA, resulting in increased runoff during the cold season, 4 an earlier spring freshet and decreased runoff in the warm season. Recent studies have 5 confirmed that climate change impacts regions where snowpack and glacier melt are 6 significant sources of the annual streamflow (e.g.: Cayan et al., 2001; Jasper et al., 7 2004; Mote, 2006; Hamlet et al., 2007). Therefore, the understanding of predicted 8 climate change on the hydrological cycle within a watershed is essential for future 9 water resources planning. 10 As snow melt contributes on average (1961-1990) approximately 60% of the 11 mean annual streamflow of the Cline River watershed in western Alberta, Canada, the 12 study site of this research, and glacier melt contributes another 8%, significant 13 changes in the hydrological regime are expected under climate warming. The 14 increased summer runoff from glacier melt can only be short term, because the 15 shrinking glacier area and declining glacier volume will eventually limit the amount 16 of melt water produced, even if climate warming sustains greater melt per unit area 17 (Moore and Demuth, 2001). Watersheds with significant, but rapidly declining, 18 glacier cover have exhibited a strong decreasing trend in glacier melt contributions 19 (Demuth and Pietroniro, 2003) to the extent that many glaciers have already passed 20 the period of maximum glacier melt volumes. Along the Canadian eastern slopes of 21 the Rocky Mountains glacier melt mainly occurs during July, August and September. 22 Therefore, declining glacier melt contributions to streamflow will take place at 23 approximately the same time as streamflow is predicted to decline due to climate 24 warming. P a g e | 4 1 The hydrological response to climate change has been studied through the 2 application of watershed-scale hydrological models driven by GCM-derived scenarios 3 of future climate (e.g. Loukas et al., 2002; Schulze and Perks, 2003; Toth et al., 2006; 4 Nurmohamed et al., 2007; Forbes et al, 2010). Physically-based, spatially distributed 5 hydrological models are an effective means to assess the impacts of climate change on 6 hydrological response, as they are able to capture the spatial variability of 7 hydrological processes throughout complex watersheds (Bathurst et al., 2004). The 8 ACRU agro-hydrological modeling system (Schulze, 1995, updated; Smithers and 9 Schulze, 1995) was applied in this study as it is a physical-conceptual, distributed 10 hydrological modeling system designed to be responsive to changes in land use and 11 climate. One condition of simulating realistic hydrological impacts of climate change 12 is that the model parameters must be carefully validated to ensure that
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