King Tide Floods in Tuvalu

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1944 1943 Climate Sciences Sciences Dynamics Chemistry of the Past Solid Earth Techniques Geoscientific Methods and and Physics Advances in Advances Atmospheric Atmospheric Data Systems Geoscientific Geosciences Earth System Earth System Measurement Instrumentation Hydrology and Ocean Science Biogeosciences The Cryosphere Natural Hazards Hazards Natural EGU Journal Logos (RGB) Logos Journal EGU and Earth System System and Earth Model Development cient indicates King Tide phenomenon is considerable connected to ffi ects of losing life, property, and intending migration caused by floods. ff This discussion paper is/has beenSystem under Sciences review (NHESS). for Please the refer journal to Natural the Hazards corresponding and final Earth paper in NHESS if available. the low-lying setting and thefluential factors vulnerable which characteristic were of made coral worse by islands, the any e oceanic in- 1 Introduction As with the impactshave become of the global common warminget threats and al., to climate 2007). island change, countries Tuvaluconsidered inundation with in to and the the be one flooding tropical highestet of oceans point al., the (Mimura less island 2006; than country Mimura most 5 et m threatened al., up by 2007; sea to Webb level sea and rise level, Kench, (Church is 2010; Wong, broadly 2011). Because of referenced against spring tide levels,warm so water can mass it pushes be upvariability turned sea overlaps up level; it, by once the warm spring rising waterTide” tide, mass. sea for storm The the level surge, floods might or in overflow otherKing Tuvalu. and This climate Tide so study and has provides an more been island understanding called country of “King case the study signals of of regional sea level rise. They blame the regional floodingPacific to islanders. King In Tide, this a study, termtopography we used data, clarify but we what not estimated King clearly the TideTide. identified reasonable is by This value first. of definition By 3.2 also the mAdministration tide fits as (NOAA) gauge the to and of threshold the of Kingcross statement King Tide validate by occurring the National once Oceaniccorrelation 19 yr or coe and twice data Atmospheric a ofwarm year. tide water In gauge mass. addition, and The We satellite 28 altimeter King (1993–2012), Tide the events revealed the fact that flooding can be The spatial and temporal distributionscertain of areas. sea The level low-lying rise island presentTuvalu, an countries regional atoll are floods island obviously in country the some devastating located spots e in a the south-west Pacific Ocean, is su Abstract Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci-discuss.net/1/1943/2013/ Discuss., 1, 1943–1964, 2013 doi:10.5194/nhessd-1-1943-2013 © Author(s) 2013. CC Attribution 3.0 License. King Tide floods in Tuvalu C.-C. Lin, C.-R. Ho, and Y.-H. Cheng Department of Marine Environmental Informatics,Keelung, National Taiwan Taiwan Ocean University, Received: 16 March 2013 – Accepted: 25Correspondence April to: 2013 C.-R. – Ho Published: ([email protected]) 17 MayPublished 2013 by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 5 20 25 15 10 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | N– ◦ 1.1 and − ˜ no/Southern Os- ). The popular concept ected by El Ni ff 1946 1945 based on an analysis of Mitchell et al. (2001) for the period 1 (Church et al., 2001). Eschenbach (2004a, b) estimated the rate − 1 − http://www.msq.qld.gov.au/Tides/King-tides.aspx relative to the land, concerning the data a 1 − S, the trade wind drives currents westward along the equator, feeds and maintains ◦ Except for estimating the basic foundation of regional sea level, examining the mech- Sea level rise is normally the first impression connected to global warming. Of many rise a bit. Australian monsoon or theCabanes Pacific et Decadal al. Oscillationvariability (2001) (PDO) results revealed (Mantua from that et non-uniform theand al., Llovel changes dominant (2010) 1997). in contribution indicated about ocean towas 30 thermal caused % regional of by expansion. sea the ocean Cazenave observedof level thermal rate rising expansion. of was Houghton rise due during etthe to 1993–2007 western steric al. tropical heating. (1996) Pacific Merrifield has estimated10 linked (2011) that to pointed half remote out wind the forcing.the In sea high tropical level water area trend on of the in 10 western side of the Pacific, which contributes to regional sea level oceanic factors need to be concerned. anisms of ocean canin help tropical to Pacific understand variabilityberth sea has level and been variability Hurrell, regarded precisely. The with 1994; sea the Chambers level association et of ENSO al., (Tren- 2002; Church et al., 2006), the Asian– 1977–1998. Cabanes etperiod al. 1955–1996 (2001) but found used outsensus the mean sea view sea level unveils has level sea fallen dataUnited level in States rise Tuvalu. from Somehow, Environmental a is tide Protection con- a Agency gaugemake trend called today’s the for King and Tides world the will become that be the seaflooding future’s an or level everyday King rise unpreventable tides Tide will issue. (EPA, flooding 2011). The willtide The be regional gauge more frequent and and satellite morenot altimeter severe. By simply data, the being analysis Tuvalu’s present of contributed problem by of long inundation trend seems of sea level rise by global warming. Some 2.7 mmyr cillation (ENSO) events. It’s ofon very Climate similar magnitudes Change to (IPCC) thecentury, estimate 1–2 Intergovernmental mmyr Panel of globalof average sea rise level of rise 0.07 during mmyr the 20th present long-term sea level change at Tuvalu was a rate of rise between than the global average. A comment by Hunter (2002) noted a cautious estimate of what cause the unknown residuals need to be explained. things about global warmingtioned, misunderstood by it the typically public refersareas when to sea are the level rising. rise global On isfer the average, to men- but opposite, sea when this level we obscures riseand mentioned globally. the projected Limited about fact by sea flooding, that the it levelvalu. not length does is Some and all not previous always accuracy studies re- a of (Beckeret data, subject et al., the al., of 2006) historical 2012; indicated considerable Cazenave that and and sea controversial Llovel, level 2010; in in Nerem the Tu- western tropical Pacific is 3–4 times larger ary 2006 over the periodoccurring of King 1990–2016 Tide, (AusAID, bringing 2006).Though the That adjusted severest day of was floods barometric as withknown and expected residuals the harmonic left of record (AusAID, analysis, 2007). of there Weand regarded sea still the regional level has combination climate 3.44 of been activities m. astronomical 20 can tide cm mainly un- be explained to the inundation of Tuvalu, but well above average height,mer or or the winter highest ( springis tide that in the every King yearmoon Tide or occurring is new simply in moon. the Back sum- toter very the phenomenon highest phenomenon existing tide of always, that King noron Tide usually a here, occurs the series it around specific is of the neither continuous dayshours a full events, of high to it wa- a days, happens but year mostly ithas with leaves been regular behind estimated tidal a the trail highest fluctuation. of astronomical The tide unforgettable duration disaster in can Tuvalu (EPA, should 2011). last occur There for on 28 Febru- those floods pulling theconnected Pacific Ocean to farther threaten ashore theiralso than lives seeps normal through and “King small properties. Tide”, holeskill Not in a crops, the only term porous contaminate wash atoll over freshwater,productivity ground the which (Mortreux increase may coastline, and risk wash it Barnett, away of soils, 2009). disease, Originally, King and Tide decline refers to agricultural any high tide damages. The people in Tuvalu are already experiencing flooding in places. They call 5 5 25 15 20 10 25 15 20 10 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | ering ff ers from ff http://www. erent time scales, includ- ff ), sponsored by Australian E longitude, comprising four reef islands and 1948 1947 ◦ emission reduction, which provoked Tuvaluans 2 ects (Lewis, 1989; Eschenbach, 2004a). US army building ect, used harmonic method to filter out the tidal influence, ff ff cient and unknown residuals unveiled the true factors of re- ffi erent view to understand the signals of King Tide and temporary regional ff S latitude, and from 176 to 180 ◦ (Secretariat of the Pacific Community, 2005), limited land resources of fresh wa- 2 ering a di Many factors and components are connected to the change of sea level, and some ff tween acoustic head and sea surface to one hour one datum. The sea surface height from South Pacific Sea Levelbom.gov.au/oceanography/projects/spslcmp/spslcmp.shtml and Climate Monitoring Project (SPSLCMP)Agency ( for International Development (AusAID). The Seatic Level Measuring Fine Equipment Resolution Acous- (SEAFRAME) gaugeaccurate in data Tuvalu was of sea installed level in measurement, 1993,direction air and o and atmospheric water pressure. temperatures, All wind parametersery speed, are wind 6 collected min for and 2 min averagedof record to of each each ev- hour. 6 Sea min level by readings are calculating taken the every 3 traveling min time record of a sound pulse from and back be- Sea level records showing variability ranging over from a hoursphenomena, wide to seasonal range years variation, of of interanual tidal di geological variations, times oscillations, scale. or hours Estimates over of to regional periodsbased weeks short-term of on sea of the level ten weather variation historical are years scale tide primarily to gauge data. The raw data from 1993 to 2012 are accessed came on one responsegovernments of failed Kyoto conference on in promising 1997.call CO The the United international States of andmate being refugees. Australia the So far, less the spotlight contributorstightly. of to the global global warming warming, and but Tuvalu seems the connected first cli- 3 Data sets and methods a straight airportbroadened runway the in erosion. Fongafale, On andkm the excavating other a side, wide highter channel population and density during food, of WWII vulnerabilityall about 1600 to above per made natural Tuvalu hazards, more threatened vulnerable. biodiversity The (Wong, last 2011), shoot of psychological awareness strengthened the natural e are supposed to beThe described. historic Morphologically, combination the of island being was a eroded base of and American reshaped. army during World War II (WWII) flooding as well as theextensive swampland shoreline and in mangroves, Tuvalu. sea Thepond water central always water part oozes can of out Fongafale also ofspring is the go tide formed ground, in (Webb, by and 2006; andisland, Yamano out et the al., through water 2007). the surges Oncenearby lower up the houses part extreme from are of spring underground alsothe the tide through low-lying submerged. hits storm atoll the With the island ridge coral, the isrise during the vulnerable mean impact to main sea in any road oceanic Fongafale, level fluctuation. the and elevation Referring capital around to island sea 2 of m, level Tuvalu, nature and anthropogenic sides 2 Regional setting Tuvalu, a Pacific islandand country, 10 located in thefive south-west atolls. Owning Pacific to (Fig. the 1) characteristic between of 6 coral atoll, the inland is at increased risk of discussion of floodingevents. events. We Then took we tidethe discussed gauge barometric the data pressure and oceanic e satellitethen factors the altimeter of correlation data King coe asgional Tide basic flooding. data, By removed o the snap shootsea and level discussion rise in of tropical King islands. Tide, we sincerely hope of the mechanisms ofthe usual driving attempts sea to level determinetimeters how have response much been driven sea analyzed. by levelthe rises variable This possible in factors. study Tuvalu mechanisms We or di intensify focus howevents King on many during cen- Tide the 1993–2012. events, definition First, and of a the King threshold discussion Tide, of of King King Tide Tide was identified to confine our 5 5 25 15 20 10 25 15 20 10 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | ) de- 3 1 − − spatial ◦ 1.02 gcm ) is the oceanic t ( ∼ η http://www.msq.qld. ) regards it as an especially reys (1916). ff indicates the water density ( 1950 1949 0 ρ ect sea level to rise or fall by the shifting weather pat- ering are taken to estimate a reasonable threshold of ff ff ) takes any high tide well above average height, or the ) is an atmospheric pressure change measured in millibars; while t ( 0 a p . (1) ) t g ( 0 0 a ρ p erences of 6 fundamental frequencies arising from planetary motions (Godin, − ff = ) Generally, mean lower low water (MLLW) is the average height of the lowest tide After barometric influence removed, we took harmonic analysis as the method to Atmospheric pressure is one parameter potentially influencing local measurements Sea Surface Height (SSH) data are accessed from Archiving Validation and Inter- t is the gravitational acceleration and ( http://www.witnesskingtides.org/what-are-king-tides.aspx In Fongafale, the 19which yr is the (1993–2012) lowest expected MLLW tidal level was at a 1.37 particular m location relative and can to be considered the as chart datum, King Tide definition cannotmust be have simplified some to the otherstudies highest conditions and predicted the need high tide to tide gaugeuation, be data and only, there which the concerned. pains reflects In people regionalthe su this sea King level, Tide. study, the the real previous flooding sit- recorded at a tide station duringintersection the of recording the period. The land line with on the a water chart surface represents at the the elevation of mean lower low water. and the Sun and thehighest tide rotation and of King Tide. the If Earth.the gravitational force All highest can above simplify astronomical the indicate tide happening theevery of (HAT) year. significant King of But Tide, relation every the of fact year displayedtide should sea of occur surface 1998 height the (SSH) had severest in 38 floods cm the highest fall in astronomical than expected; and same to the case in 2010 of 23 cm fall. King Tide, a layman’s termmental in Protection Pacific, Agency has been (EPA,at 2011) identified a by as United coastal the States location. highestgov.au/Tides/King-tides.aspx of predicted The Environ- high Queensland tide Governmenthigher of of the high Australia year ( waters( which occur aroundhigh Christmas tide time event as occurringand King Atmospheric twice Tide. Administration a (NOAA) Green of year,Therefore, a Cross King similar Tide normal is to occurrence clearly once explained the or to the definition twice gravitational a as forces year. exerted National by the Oceanic Moon constituents, with 95 % confidence interval. 4 Results (Pawlowicz et al., 2002). Harmonic analysis displayed the tidal constituents of 186 1972), which includes the rotationthe of earth the earth, around the the orbit of sun, the the moon around lunar the perigee, earth, the lunar orbital tilt, and the perihelion η calculate the amplitudes and phasesas of the tidal sum characteristics. The ofnomical tidal parameters. a These signal, frequencies finite modeled are set specifiedand by of di various combinations sinusoids of at sums specific frequencies, was related to astro- sea level (AusAID, 2010), orcrease (increase) an in inverted atmospheric pressure barometer (Futer response and response of Pihos, was calculated 1994). 0.995 as The cmmbar Eq. invertedsea (1) barome- level mentioned change; by Je g satellites (Topex/Poseidon, Jason-1, andeach Jason-2) hour to is match used withtrack tide to to gauge the interpolate data. Cycle tide one 173matched gauge of datum up at along to Fongafale track the was (Fig. middle used. 2), of the There 2012. nearest are aboutof 714 relative points sea valid data levelglobal rise. ocean volume, Variations but in theyterns. barometric a A pressure 1 do hPa decrease not sustained cause over changes a in day could cause a 1 cm increase in relative and Tide Gauge Bench Mark (TGBM) for vertical movement. pretation of Satellite Datafrom TOPEX/Poseidon, in Jason-1/2, Oceanography ERS-1/2, and (AVISO). ENVISATresolution It satellites and with is a 7 day a 1/4 temporal merged intervals. product The along derived track sea level data based on three is revised by the assistance of Continuous Global Positioning System (CGPS) network 5 5 25 15 20 10 25 15 20 10 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | 1952 1951 ective action. The impact of warm water mass brings 26 cm maximum ff Besides, Queensland Government defines King Tide as any high tide well above In order to expose the unknown residuals of sea level rise, we examined and com- The total amount of 28 King Tide events are shown in Table 1. Every King Tide event below which are last but not least factors, need to be considered further. with tidal period. Definitely, gravitationimportant of factors. moon Every pulling King upclearly Tide sea event demonstrates level happening that is on tidal one fullWarm fluctuation of moon water is the mass or the most brought new very by moonsignificant first the period factor basic oceanic cannot foundation be dynamic of ignored. piling flooding. Theand up diminishing duration the of will sea warm be water the waterunderstanding is future mass study formation, also of to pass, one predict King the Tidethe duration of time events, flooding. and we For the the discuss amplitude detail the of running influential into impacts the depending spring on tide. Some other components as level high enough to be concerned with King Tide. 5 Discussion As the display of Table 1 shows, the duration of King Tide (1–5 days) matches well masses. The anomaly higheast to water west. is Once the diagramedturns warm by water out mass red an passing colour, e Tuvalu runsof passing into SSH through the for spring the from tide, Kingpened SSH Tide events. with Except warm the event waterThe occurred masses in King 2010, Tide company, all events and the occurred(Fig. pushed others on hap- 4) up 1 February were SSH 1999, a notmade 9 SSHA 17 occurring March cm rise 2001, in in 21, and 25, the average. 17 and HAT April 23 period 2007 cm, respectively. of The latter that condition year; piled but up the warm sea water masses been strengthened with the recognitionmotion of of warm water water within mass, the whichMaps ocean is driven of described by as sea the the surace Rossbydemonstrated height waves that or anomaly the Tuvalu (SSHA) is equatorial surrounded with current. time. by data Figure the derived 4 warm from shows water the satellite mass fact altimetry most that of King the Tide flooding events are accompanied with warm water altimeter data (Dibarboure et al., 2011). Interest in the King Tide phenomenon has both data reaches a value of 4.37 cm (Fig. 3) which meets the uncertainty of satellite average height, or theidentification cannot higher be high imitated waters byis Tuvalu which 2.7 of m. occur the If fact it aroundOn that is Christmas the the taken other as higher time. side, the high 90 This % threshold tideFrom of of average King the King Tide Tide, events point happened then of onThe King the perihelion, Tide the month the is of gravitational point January–March. every earth force, month tide. comes the closest theory to the ofpared sun, celestial is the on cycle data 2 is January of at acceptable. tide present. gauge and satellite altimeter. The root-mean-square error of 2012 are out of HAT period.of NOAA the defined year; King however, Tide the asAlthough fact the the of highest gravitational King predicted force Tide contributes high events sea tide the in level, without Tuvalu King seems the Tide not other factors accommodated. threshold involved, Tide, will not not essential. be achieved. HAT is one optional component of King set, there are 108records records at of the same one springtotal datum tide amount each are brings hour generalized about over toevents, 28 which than one satisfies events. King 3.2 with The m. the Tide average introduction The event, amountby by therefore, Tuvaluans, continuous NOAA: also of the fits a each with normal year the occurrence identification comes once to or 1.5 twice every yearhappened in during coastal areas. spring tideperiod. The period, events happened but in less 1993–1995, 1998–2000, than 2003–2005, half 2008, 2010, of and them occurred at the HAT of Tuvalu was reported 1.83of m both (United comes Nations, to 2008)of the relative King value to Tide. of MLLW. Under 3.2 The mconsider the addition sea which definition, water we once rises assumed sea upland to to level be could the measures a average be over reasonable height 3.2 flooded threshold m, of Fongafale by we land, definitely sea half of water. the During island the record years of tide gauge station the level relative to the depths on nautical charts and tidal levels. The average altitude 5 5 25 15 20 10 25 20 10 15 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | S, a site pro- ◦ ˜ na contributed to the flooding 8.2 near Irian Jaya happened on 17 = ˜ w n a events, Tuvalu located in the tropical M ects of La Ni ff 1954 1953 ˜ ects, Tuvalu, situated in latitude 5.3–11 no and La Ni ff 8.8 that occurred of Chile on 27 February 2010 (AusAID, ects of tsunami, there were 17 separate tsunami events de- = ff w ect should be out of discussion here. But taking a quick view of El ected by the interannual sea surface temperature and barometric M ff ff The tide gage and satellite altimeter data are accessed from SPSLCMP ˜ na periods than usual. ects of tsunami. Instead of sea level rising, a fall of 10–20 cm was recorded at that ˜ for International Development, Tuvalu, 2006. for International Development, Tuvalu, 2007. Referring to tropical cyclones e As for the short term e Regarding to the impact of El Ni no, sea level is anomalously high in the eastern tropical Pacific and low in the west- ff Acknowledgements. land and life. The results indicatemechanisms the raising straight sea relationship level. of The Kingbe warm Tide ignored, water and arises mass, the the one possible SSH ofTides, the should occurring key not with factors be but the underestimated.SSH easily Some contributions under of the of the threshold, warm potential are King not water included mass in but this research. in low tide period of AusAID: Pacific country report on sea level and climate: their present state, Australian Agency Timmermann et al., 2010);mal interannual expansion influence; (Cabanes non-uniform et changes al.,mass. in 2001; Cazenave Nevertheless, ocean and not ther- Nerem, all 2004);neither above or will the can warm play water they key rolesa be definition in well of the King predicted low-lying Tidea island or is reasonable countries; threshold prevented recommended to to by examine be thethe local floods introduced inducing needs and government. by of applied King In local Tide, in which people.once Tuvalu this could area, We or satisfy make study, twice the term a King year; Tide also proper can to it the represent fact of the occurring Tuvaluans’ deeper fear of losing their and AVISO, respectively. This workTaiwan through was grant NSC101-2611-M-019-003. partly supported by the National Science Council of References AusAID: Pacific country report on sea level and climate: their present state, Australian Agency As with seaor level a rise, given the place statesea is level of not fluctuation an proof is of individualacted obviously by global flooding complicated. many trend, happened Regional factors, but such sea on regional as: level a isostatic sea change rebound; given level may climate variation day be variability implying (Merrifield, re- 2011; 6 Conclusions 2010). SSHA (Fig. 5a)ter. unveils The of energy fact of ofe ocean time dynamic that cuts Tuvalu was down surroundedtime. the But by SSH the cold other foundation wa- earthquake andFebruary of diminished magnitude 1996 the (Fig. 5b)tide was with not warm water as mass,of lucky and King as the Tide slight the event. e last one. The occurrence on spring surge did not make Kinga Tide peak of event due 0.3 m to by no the support surge. of springtected time, since though its reached installation. Thequake highest of surge magnitude record was 10 cm caused by the earth- the equatorial Pacific, beginsmultaneously, to it weaken, drops sea down water inthe flows the King back western Tide to Pacific events where the listSSHA Tuvalu east locates. out indicating Pacific. As in Si- the we Table 1, check coldfloods no water in King feature La Tide Ni instead. record On showed the in contrary, 1998. Tuvalu Maps experienced duces of tropical cyclones instead of beingtide gauge attacked. in Since 1993, the tropical installation Cyclone of Gavin SEAFRAME was the only one detected Tuvalu. The storm Pacific, is definitely a pressure variations. Since wecessing, had the filtered ENSO out e theNi influence of barometric inern data tropical pro- Pacific. 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Elisara.doc × × × ´ ea, 2005. cs08 ects on past and future re- ff +++ ++ + + + + + + + + + + + + ++ + + + + + ++ + + + + + + ++ + + + + + + , 2010. × × +× × +× +× × + ++× × +× + × +× + + +× × +× + + × + +× × + × + + + × + + + 1958 1957 , 2007. TIDE, Comput. Geosci., 28, 929–937, , 2010. means non-influence. × , last access: 1 February 2013. (m) (days) tide water mass cycle , 2002. ects of Climate Change on Indigenous Peoples: a Pacific Presentation, avail- ff doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2010.05.003 http://www.un.org/esa/socdev/unpfii/documents/EGM A check list of possible influential factors of 28 King Tide events. means the positive influence; + 345 186 Feb 1996 18 Mar7 1996 3.3128 8 Feb 1997 3.2009 9 Mar 199710 1 3.255 Feb 1999 4 2111 Jan 2000 3.304 1 12 9 3.207 Feb 2001 9 3.236 Mar13 2001 2 30 Jan 200214 28 4 3.322 Feb 2002 3.34715 28 1 3.226 Mar 2002 2 16 3.309 16 Apr 200317 15 4 3.303 May 2003 4 18 30 1 3.253 Jan 200619 3.246 28 3 Feb 200620 29 3 3.358 Mar 200621 18 3.415 Mar 2 200722 3 3.236 17 Apr 200723 22 3.241 4 Jan 200824 5 12 3.262 Jan 2009 10 2 3.218 Feb 2009 2 30 3.234 Jan 201027 3.271 3 28 1 3.210 20 2 Mar 2011 2 9 Mar 2012 3.206 1 3.200 2 2 1 26 Feb 1994 3.241 2 25 20 Jan 2011 3.286 3 Event2 Date Sea level Duration 21 Jan 1996 HAT Spring 3.255 Warm 3 Tsunami Tropical 26 19 Feb 2011 3.223 2 able at: from multi-decadal analysis of72, island 234–246, change in the Central Pacific, Global Planet.2011. Change, Chikamori, M.: Atoll islandconstruction: vulnerability to Fongafale flooding Islet, and Funafutidoi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2007.02.007 inundation Atoll, revealed by Tuvalu, Global historical re- Planet. Change, 57, 407–416, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3519.1 1 February 2013. parisons – Funafuti Atoll, EU EDF 8, SOPAC Project Report 54, 2006. Dynam., 9, 303–319, 1994. gional sea level trends in the southern Indo-Pacific, J. Clim. Change, 23, 4429–4437, Analytical Report, Secretariat of the Pacific Community, Noum estimates in MATLAB using3004(02)00013-4 T au/Tides/King-tides.aspx/ Note: Table 1. Webb, A. P. and Kench, P. S.: The dynamic response of reef islands to seaWong, level P. rise: P.: Small evidence island developing states, WIREs Clim Change,Yamano, 2, 1–6, H., Kayanne, H., Yamaguchi, T., Kuwahara, Y., Yokoki, H., Shimazaki, H., and United Nations: E Webb, A.: Tuvalu technical report – coastal change analysis using multi-temporal image com- Timmermann, A., McGregor, S., and Jin, F. F.: Wind e Trenberth, K. E. and Hurrell, J. W.: Decadal atmosphere-ocean variations in the Pacific, Clim. Queensland Government, Maritime Safety Queensland: available at: Secretariat of the Pacific Community: Tuvalu 2002 Population and Housing Census: Volume 1, Pawlowicz, R., Beardsley, R., and Lentz, S.: Classical tidal harmonic analysis include error 5 20 25 15 10 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | 1960 1959 Sampling points of satellite altimeter along track 173 are marked in purple dots, and the Location of Tuvalu and the relative position of Australia (left map). The upper right map is Fig. 2. location of tide gauge is shown by the red triangle. the relative position of Tuvalu nine atolls,(bottom Funafuti of atoll right is corner), the main the atoll capital of of Tuvalu. And Tuvalu Fongafale referred to in the text, is shown by red triangle. Fig. 1. Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | 1962 1961 The root-mean-square error of tide gauge and altimeter data for 19 yr (March 1993– Maps of SSHA during King Tide events. Star indicates the position of Tuvalu. The colour bar shows the SSHAthe by cold cm. water Red mass. The colourthe image middle presents is date the a of warm 7 the day water 7 average days. mass; datum. while The date blue indicated presents on the image is Fig. 4. Fig. 3. November 2012) reaches a value of 4.37 cm. Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | 1964 1963 SSHA in the week of 14 February 1996 presented the King (b) SSHA in the week of 24 Feb 2010 indicated that Tuvalu was under the background Continued. of cold water when surgeTide caused occurred by at Chile this earthquakeTide moment. occurred on event 27 response February by 2010.on the No 17 combination King February of 1996. spring The tide, date indicated warm on water the mass, image and is tsunami the surge middle date of the 7 days. Fig. 5. (a) Fig. 4.