High Speed Rail Along the Ahmedabad- Mumbai Corridor

High Speed Rail along the Ahmedabad- Mumbai corridor

Impacts on energy and emissions

Sarbojit Pal High Speed Rail Seminar, Ahmedabad February 11, 2013

Growth in passenger transport sector in India

• Very fast growth in passenger transport activity (PKM) • 10 times growth observed since 1990 1,060 BPKM 10,230 BPKM (1990) (2010)

• Growth drivers: population, economy, urbanization, motorization Source: Estimates by different Ministries and Planning Commission Estimates are on higher side as compared to many other estimates A handful of large urban centers are responsible for a major portion of this traffic growth

India’s large urban agglomerations

Delhi

Ghaziabad Jaipur Lucknow

Kanpur Patna

Ahmedabad

Bhopal Vadodara Indore Kolkata Surat Thane Nagpur • Already 8 urban centers have

Mumbai Pune populations greater than 5 million people Hyderabad • By 2030

> 10 million – At least 6 ten million plus cities – 7 to 13 four million plus cities Bangalore Chennai > 5 million Kochi Coimbatore Thrissur Large passenger mobility can be> 1 millionseen between such large cities across Kochi

Map based on Census 2011 data the country

Originating passengers for the Railways

• Top 40 passenger originating cities generate 51% of the total non-suburban traffic • Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata

Number of originating passengers alone generate 20% of the > 2 million total traffic

1 to 2 million Kochi

Map based on PRS data for period: 01-SEP-09 TO 31-AUG-10 Originating passengers for the Airlines

• Top 10 passenger originating cities generate 78% of the total traffic

Number of originating passengers• Delhi, Mumbai and > 1 million Bangalore generate about 50% of the total traffic Kochi

Map based on data from DGCA for year 2011-12 Identifying urban passenger corridors

Overlapping corridors HSR Corridors identified by ITPS-TERI Phase II study

HSR Corridors identified by Ministry of Railways • Distinct heavy passenger use corridors emerge • Corridors identified by the ITPS-TERI Phase II criterions overlap Number of originating passengers > 2 million rail • Ahmedabad-Mumbai 1 to 2 million rail Kochi corridor feature across all > 1 million air Map based on data from DGCA for year 2011-12 studies The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor MOST DEVELOPED REGION IN INDIA • Corridor length: 491 km • Runs through the most urbanized states in India • Ahmedabad, Surat, Vadodara, Mumbai: most populous metropolitan areas in India • Some of the highest per capita incomes • Historically connected through trade, business and culture National, state and city level per capita incomes* 120

100

Thousands 40

0 India Gujarat Ahmedabad Vadodara Surat Maharashtra Mumbai *Source; City Skyline Indicus Report The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor NATURE OF TRAFFIC

Corridor generated about 75 bpkm in 2011-12

Share of mobility along the corridor 2011-12

30% 30%

10%

30%

Rail Air Bus Car Air registered a 37% growth rate followed by road (6%) and rail (5%) along this corridor (CAGR: 2008/9-2010/11)

The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor RAIL TRAFFIC

• 6.2 million passengers travelled on Traffic on railways (PKM) Higher Middle Lower reserved rail categories in 2011-12 3

• Growth of passenger kilometers on 2 Billions various classes (CAGR: 2008/9-2010/11) 1

1 – Higher - 7.62% 0 – Middle - 6.79% 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

Class types combined: – Lower - 3.85% Higher: 1A, 2A, EC; Middle: 3A, 3E, CC; Lower: SL, 2S Fastest end to end travel time on • Higher journey classes have higher leads railways: 6h 25min (404km-373km-348km)

The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor RAIL – GLIMPSE AT PASSENGER PROFILES

• Conducted a primary face to face Age of respondents

passenger survey on-board trains 50% 42% 40% 31% • 73% of the respondents were in the 30% ages between 21 and 40 years 20% 15% • Largely in private services (44%) or self 10% 4% 5% 3% 0% employed (25%) 16-20 21-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 Over 60 • Highest share of total respondents in the income band of Rs. 25-50,000 Occupation of respondents Shares of monthly incomes by class 3% Higher Middle Lower 5% 12% Not disclose 8% Govt. Service 3% Above 1,00,000 Private Service 50,000-1,00,000 Self Employed 25,000-50,000 Unemployed

10,000-25,000 25% Student 44% Less than 10,000 Retired Other No Income

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Primary surveys were conducted on day passenger superfast trains that started and terminated between Ahmedabad and Mumbai Central. Sample size: 1461 The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor RAIL – GLIMPSE AT PASSENGER PROFILES

Purpose of travel by respondents Frequency of travel

1% 19% 12%

Business/Official 34% Daily 29% Recreational Weekly Social Monthly Education Yearly Occasionally 45% Others 42% 4% 11% 3%

• 45% of the respondents were traveling for business or official purposes • A large number of people were also traveling for social reasons Large• shareMost of of the rail respondents passengers were surveyed traveling wereon a monthly making basis this (42%) journey and a on a large share occasionally (34%) monthly basis and most of them were traveling on work

The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor ROAD TRAFFIC

• Car traffic (2011-12) – An average of 38,419 people traveled on cars/vans/jeeps along the highways and NE 1 expressways everyday – Vehicle occupancy of 3.42 persons* on the route • Bus traffic (2011-12) – About 8.5 million people traveled on intercity buses

Average leads of different transport modes (km) NH 8 Vadodara- Mumbai Exp. Car 157 (planned) Bus 266 Air 434 Rail 360

* RITES: Total Transport System Study on Traffic Flows & Modal Costs (Highways, Railways, Airways & Coastal Shipping), The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor BUS TRAFFIC – PASSENGER PROFILES

• Conducted face-to-face surveys at bus Age of respondents terminals across four cities 60% 55% 50% • Mostly young travelers - 55% respondents 40% between 21 and 30 years 30% 26% 20% 8% 5% • Greater percentage of respondents were 10% 5% 2% 0% students as compared to the railways 16-20 21-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 Over 60 • Respondents had on average, lower incomes than those on the railways Occupation of repondents 3% Shares of monthly incomes 1%

Or you don’t want to disclose 3% 13% Govt. Service Above 1,00,000 1% 17% Private Service 50,000-1,00,000 5% Self Employed 25,000-50,000 20% 4% 10,000-25,000 34% Unemployed Less than 10,000 13% Student 14% No Income 25% Retired 48% Other 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Primary surveys were conducted at bus terminals in Ahmedabad, Vadodara, Surat and Mumbai. Sample size: 712 The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor BUS TRAFFIC – PASSENGER PROFILES

Purpose of travel by respondents Frequency of travel 1% 5% 11% 18%

Business/Official 4% Daily 17% Recreational Weekly Social Monthly 47% Education Yearly 63% 8% Others 26% Occasionally

• 63% of the respondents were traveling for business or official purposes • Most of these respondents made trips along this corridor once a week High• share92% of of them bus booked passengers their tickets surveyed at the along time of this the corridorjourney were young and booked their tickets at the time of journey

The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor AIR TRAFFIC

Share of originating air traffic • 1.76 mn passengers travelled by air 2011-12 in 2011-12 37%

Ahmedabad • Mumbai-Ahmedabad accounts for Mumbai 9% 54% 80% of the traffic Vadodara Surat 0% • Rapid growth of aviation passengers • New airports in the anvil Growth of air and rail traffic • At this rate the mobility on air 1,400 Higher Middle Lower Air would exceed the mobility on 1,200

1,000

medium classes of the railways by 800

2012-13 Millions 600 400 This growth of passenger traffic driven by200 growth in air and road traffic is 0 unsustainable in the long2008-09 run 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

National energy mix for transport is unsustainable • 6 times increase in energy consumption from 2010 to 2050 expected • 90% energy consumption by road transport sector • Heavy dependence on petroleum products (95%) Source- TERI (2009) • 80% energy demand will be met by diesel

• 3 times increase in CO2 emissions from 2010 to 2050 expected • Road and air transport - key Source- TERI (2009) contributors to CO2 emissions Trends not sustainable from the perspective of energy security

• India imports almost 80% of its total crude oil requirements • Import dependence expected to reach almost 90% by 2031-32 • More than 20% of the domestic gas requirements are met through imports

Domestic production and imports of crude oil Domestic production and imports of natural gas

Source- TERI Source- MoPNG The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor ENERGY USE IN TRANSPORT

Share of energy use on different modes • Road traffic consumed almost 2011-12 75% of the energy used 3% 23% Rail • Cars: 30% traffic -> 60% energy Air 60% 14% Bus Car • Air: 10% traffic -> 23% energy

• Rail, most efficient with 30% Growth of energy use on various modes

4 (MJ) traffic and only 3% of the energy Car Bus Air Rail

used 3

• Over 90% of the energy needs 2 Billions are being met by petroleum 1 sources - 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor EMISSIONS FROM TRANSPORT

Share of CO2 emission from different transport modes • Road traffic –72% of the 2011-12 emissions 9% 19% • Diesel use among cars – Rail 58% Air causing large amount of 14% Bus emissions Car • Air generating a Growth of emissions on different transport modes disproportionate 350 (tCO2) 300 Car Air Bus Rail

amount of the emissions 250

200

• Rail - 30% of the 150 Thousands passenger traffic with 100 50 only 9%Need of to the reduce emissions energy consumption - from transport sector – Need to adopt alternative growth pathways2008-09 for passenger2009-10 transport2010-11 sector 2011-12

The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor BAU TRAFFIC GROWTH TRENDS

Business as usual growth in passenger kilometers

8 (2008/9 to 2035/36)

7 Rail Air Bus Car 6

Passenger Kilometers (Billions) Kilometers Passenger -

2018-19 2030-31 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35 2035-36

• Modal share of air to reach 23% (2035-36) from just 10% (2011-12) • Largest share of the traffic would still be carried on roads (53%) • Traffic share on cars would be retained at 30% of total traffic The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor BAU ENERGY AND EMISSIONS TRENDS

BAU trends in energy use by BAU trends in CO2 emissions use different modes (MJ) by different modes (kg CO2) 16 1,200 14 Car Air Bus Rail Car Air Bus Rail

1,000

12 ) 2

800 10 8 600 6 400

Billions (MJ) Billions 4 Millions (kg (kg CO Millions 200 2

- -

• The on-road traffic would be using 58% of the energy for transport along this corridor by 2035-36 • By 2035-36 air would need 40% of the energy with only 23% of the mobility; Rail - 2% energy -> 25% of the mobility • Rail would still generate the lowest amount of total emissions (6%). Road – 59%Corridor trends of energy and emissions mirror national trends. Need to move more people to rail based mass transport systems. A possible solution INTRODUCTION OF HSR

• Reduced energy use due to modal shift Energy efficiency: – 8.5 times airplane – 4 times car – 3 times bus • Reduction in carbon emissions

CO2 emissions (kg) per 100 PKM – Airplane: 17 – Car: 14 – HSR: 4 • Time savings • Could act as catalyst for economic Source: UIC HSR Presentation by Jean-Pierre Loubinoux 2009 growth, facilitate regional development If introduced, with all its advantages, would people be willing to travel by HSR?

The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor MODAL SHIFT TO HSR Air • International experience show HSR passengers prefer to travel by HSR for journeys with travel time less than 3 hours

Source: UIC-High Speed Presentation by Jean-Pierre LOUBINOUX 2009 • About 80% of the passengers between Ahmedabad and Mumbai can be expected to shift to HSR The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor MODAL SHIFT TO HSR

Rail • Conducted primary surveys on board trains and on platforms to understand willingness of current passengers to shift to HSR if introduced • About 98% passengers said that they would be willing to shift to HSR • But smaller percentage were willing to pay for HSR services

Willingness to shift and pay for HSR

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 99% 40% 86% 30% 20% 29% 10% 0% Higher Middle Lower WTS (YES) WTS (NO)

Primary surveys were conducted on day passenger superfast trains that started and terminated between Ahmedabad and Mumbai Central. Sample size: 1461 The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor MODAL SHIFT TO HSR

Road • Conducted primary surveys at bus terminals to understand willingness of current passengers to shift to HSR if introduced • About 69% passengers traveling on luxury bus classes said they would shift to HSR and pay • From the Japanese experience of the Shinkansen, about 15% of car users shifted to HSR

Share of respondents willing to shift and pay for HSR 80% 69%

60%

40% 19% 20%

0% Based on these assumptionsLuxury an Bus alternate scenarioOther Bus was built to evaluate the

Primary surveys were conducted at intercity bus terminalsimpact in Ahmedabad, of HSR Vadodara, along Surat this and corridorMumbai. Sample size: 712 The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor TRAFFIC TRENDS WITH INTRODUCTION OF HSR

HSR Scenario growth in passenger kilometers 25

HSR Air Rail Bus Car

5 Passenger Kilometers (Billions) Kilometers Passenger 2020-21, assumed starting year for HSR operations

• Large share of air and conventional rail passengers would shift by 2035-36 • 46% of corridor traffic is seen to move on HSR within 15 years of operation • About 40% of the passenger traffic would still move on roads (car: 25%, bus: 15%) in 2035-36 The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor ENERGY TRENDS WITH INTRODUCTION OF HSR

HSR scenario growth in energy use by different modes (MJ) 16 HSR Car Air Bus Rail Savings in energy (MJ) 14

12 Energy savings as compared to BAU 10

2 Energy for transport (Billions MJ) (Billions transport for Energy -

• This scenario results in an annual average savings of about 3.5 PJ over a 15 year period • By 2035-36, HSR services would carry about 46% of the total traffic by consuming only 16% of the energy • Road transport would still continue to consume the largest share of energy The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor EMISSIONS TRENDS WITH INTRODUCTION OF HSR

HSR scenario growth in CO2 emissions use by different 1,200 modes (kg)

1,000 HSR Car Air Bus Rail Emissions savings Emissions reductions as compared to BAU

800

Millions 600

400

200

• A 10% reduction of emissions per annum over BAU

• Annual average emissions reduction of about 81,040 tCO2 over a 15 year period • Impact on emissions due to HSR is dampened due to heavy coal based energy generation – need to move towards non-fossil fuel energy sources Summary

• High Speed Rail is definitely one of the solutions to meet the rapidly increasing demands for mobility along this corridor – Large energy savings – Man hours savings – Increased safety – Reduced total emissions • New technologies for electricity generation should be explored to realize the complete benefits of HSR

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