High Speed Rail along the Ahmedabad- Mumbai corridor Impacts on energy and emissions Sarbojit Pal High Speed Rail Seminar, Ahmedabad February 11, 2013 Growth in passenger transport sector in India • Very fast growth in passenger transport activity (PKM) • 10 times growth observed since 1990 1,060 BPKM 10,230 BPKM (1990) (2010) • Growth drivers: population, economy, urbanization, motorization Source: Estimates by different Ministries and Planning Commission Estimates are on higher side as compared to many other estimates A handful of large urban centers are responsible for a major portion of this traffic growth India’s large urban agglomerations Delhi Ghaziabad Jaipur Lucknow Kanpur Patna Ahmedabad Bhopal Vadodara Indore Kolkata Surat Thane Nagpur • Already 8 urban centers have Mumbai Pune populations greater than 5 million people Hyderabad • By 2030 > 10 million – At least 6 ten million plus cities – 7 to 13 four million plus cities Bangalore Chennai > 5 million Kochi Coimbatore Thrissur Large passenger mobility can be> 1 millionseen between such large cities across Kochi Map based on Census 2011 data the country Originating passengers for the Railways • Top 40 passenger originating cities generate 51% of the total non-suburban traffic • Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata Number of originating passengers alone generate 20% of the > 2 million total traffic 1 to 2 million Kochi Map based on PRS data for period: 01-SEP-09 TO 31-AUG-10 Originating passengers for the Airlines • Top 10 passenger originating cities generate 78% of the total traffic Number of originating passengers• Delhi, Mumbai and > 1 million Bangalore generate about 50% of the total traffic Kochi Map based on data from DGCA for year 2011-12 Identifying urban passenger corridors Overlapping corridors HSR Corridors identified by ITPS-TERI Phase II study HSR Corridors identified by Ministry of Railways • Distinct heavy passenger use corridors emerge • Corridors identified by the ITPS-TERI Phase II criterions overlap Number of originating passengers > 2 million rail • Ahmedabad-Mumbai 1 to 2 million rail Kochi corridor feature across all > 1 million air Map based on data from DGCA for year 2011-12 studies The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor MOST DEVELOPED REGION IN INDIA • Corridor length: 491 km • Runs through the most urbanized states in India • Ahmedabad, Surat, Vadodara, Mumbai: most populous metropolitan areas in India • Some of the highest per capita incomes • Historically connected through trade, business and culture National, state and city level per capita incomes* 120 100 80 60 Thousands 40 20 0 India Gujarat Ahmedabad Vadodara Surat Maharashtra Mumbai *Source; City Skyline Indicus Report The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor NATURE OF TRAFFIC Corridor generated about 75 bpkm in 2011-12 Share of mobility along the corridor 2011-12 30% 30% 10% 30% Rail Air Bus Car Air registered a 37% growth rate followed by road (6%) and rail (5%) along this corridor (CAGR: 2008/9-2010/11) The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor RAIL TRAFFIC • 6.2 million passengers travelled on Traffic on railways (PKM) Higher Middle Lower reserved rail categories in 2011-12 3 2 • Growth of passenger kilometers on 2 Billions various classes (CAGR: 2008/9-2010/11) 1 1 – Higher - 7.62% 0 – Middle - 6.79% 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 Class types combined: – Lower - 3.85% Higher: 1A, 2A, EC; Middle: 3A, 3E, CC; Lower: SL, 2S Fastest end to end travel time on • Higher journey classes have higher leads railways: 6h 25min (404km-373km-348km) The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor RAIL – GLIMPSE AT PASSENGER PROFILES • Conducted a primary face to face Age of respondents passenger survey on-board trains 50% 42% 40% 31% • 73% of the respondents were in the 30% ages between 21 and 40 years 20% 15% • Largely in private services (44%) or self 10% 4% 5% 3% 0% employed (25%) 16-20 21-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 Over 60 • Highest share of total respondents in the income band of Rs. 25-50,000 Occupation of respondents Shares of monthly incomes by class 3% Higher Middle Lower 5% 12% Not disclose 8% Govt. Service 3% Above 1,00,000 Private Service 50,000-1,00,000 Self Employed 25,000-50,000 Unemployed 10,000-25,000 25% Student 44% Less than 10,000 Retired Other No Income 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Primary surveys were conducted on day passenger superfast trains that started and terminated between Ahmedabad and Mumbai Central. Sample size: 1461 The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor RAIL – GLIMPSE AT PASSENGER PROFILES Purpose of travel by respondents Frequency of travel 1% 19% 12% Business/Official 34% Daily 29% Recreational Weekly Social Monthly Education Yearly Occasionally 45% Others 42% 4% 11% 3% • 45% of the respondents were traveling for business or official purposes • A large number of people were also traveling for social reasons Large• shareMost of of the rail respondents passengers were surveyed traveling wereon a monthly making basis this (42%) journey and a on a large share occasionally (34%) monthly basis and most of them were traveling on work The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor ROAD TRAFFIC • Car traffic (2011-12) – An average of 38,419 people traveled on cars/vans/jeeps along the highways and NE 1 expressways everyday – Vehicle occupancy of 3.42 persons* on the route • Bus traffic (2011-12) – About 8.5 million people traveled on intercity buses Average leads of different transport modes (km) NH 8 Vadodara- Mumbai Exp. Car 157 (planned) Bus 266 Air 434 Rail 360 * RITES: Total Transport System Study on Traffic Flows & Modal Costs (Highways, Railways, Airways & Coastal Shipping), The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor BUS TRAFFIC – PASSENGER PROFILES • Conducted face-to-face surveys at bus Age of respondents terminals across four cities 60% 55% 50% • Mostly young travelers - 55% respondents 40% between 21 and 30 years 30% 26% 20% 8% 5% • Greater percentage of respondents were 10% 5% 2% 0% students as compared to the railways 16-20 21-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 Over 60 • Respondents had on average, lower incomes than those on the railways Occupation of repondents 3% Shares of monthly incomes 1% Or you don’t want to disclose 3% 13% Govt. Service Above 1,00,000 1% 17% Private Service 50,000-1,00,000 5% Self Employed 25,000-50,000 20% 4% 10,000-25,000 34% Unemployed Less than 10,000 13% Student 14% No Income 25% Retired 48% Other 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Primary surveys were conducted at bus terminals in Ahmedabad, Vadodara, Surat and Mumbai. Sample size: 712 The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor BUS TRAFFIC – PASSENGER PROFILES Purpose of travel by respondents Frequency of travel 1% 5% 11% 18% Business/Official 4% Daily 17% Recreational Weekly Social Monthly 47% Education Yearly 63% 8% Others 26% Occasionally • 63% of the respondents were traveling for business or official purposes • Most of these respondents made trips along this corridor once a week High• share92% of of them bus booked passengers their tickets surveyed at the along time of this the corridorjourney were young and booked their tickets at the time of journey The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor AIR TRAFFIC Share of originating air traffic • 1.76 mn passengers travelled by air 2011-12 in 2011-12 37% Ahmedabad • Mumbai-Ahmedabad accounts for Mumbai 9% 54% 80% of the traffic Vadodara Surat 0% • Rapid growth of aviation passengers • New airports in the anvil Growth of air and rail traffic • At this rate the mobility on air 1,400 Higher Middle Lower Air would exceed the mobility on 1,200 1,000 medium classes of the railways by 800 2012-13 Millions 600 400 This growth of passenger traffic driven by200 growth in air and road traffic is 0 unsustainable in the long2008-09 run 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 National energy mix for transport is unsustainable • 6 times increase in energy consumption from 2010 to 2050 expected • 90% energy consumption by road transport sector • Heavy dependence on petroleum products (95%) Source- TERI (2009) • 80% energy demand will be met by diesel • 3 times increase in CO2 emissions from 2010 to 2050 expected • Road and air transport - key Source- TERI (2009) contributors to CO2 emissions Trends not sustainable from the perspective of energy security • India imports almost 80% of its total crude oil requirements • Import dependence expected to reach almost 90% by 2031-32 • More than 20% of the domestic gas requirements are met through imports Domestic production and imports of crude oil Domestic production and imports of natural gas Source- TERI Source- MoPNG The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor ENERGY USE IN TRANSPORT Share of energy use on different modes • Road traffic consumed almost 2011-12 75% of the energy used 3% 23% Rail • Cars: 30% traffic -> 60% energy Air 60% 14% Bus Car • Air: 10% traffic -> 23% energy • Rail, most efficient with 30% Growth of energy use on various modes 4 (MJ) traffic and only 3% of the energy Car Bus Air Rail used 3 • Over 90% of the energy needs 2 Billions are being met by petroleum 1 sources - 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor EMISSIONS FROM TRANSPORT Share of CO2 emission from different transport modes • Road traffic –72% of the 2011-12 emissions 9% 19% • Diesel use among cars – Rail 58% Air causing large amount of 14% Bus emissions Car • Air generating a Growth of emissions on different transport modes disproportionate 350 (tCO2) 300 Car Air Bus Rail amount of the emissions 250 200 • Rail - 30% of the 150 Thousands passenger traffic with 100 50 only 9%Need of to the reduce emissions energy consumption - from transport sector – Need to adopt alternative growth pathways2008-09 for passenger2009-10 transport2010-11 sector 2011-12 The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor