GARDNER ON PRIMAL SCREAM THERAPY • THE 'FACE' ON MARS • ALTERNATIVE MEDICINE •,&!

Published by the Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal THE COMMITTEE FOR THE SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION OF CLAIMS OF THE PARANORMAL AT THE CENTER FOR INQUIRY-INTERNATIONAL (ADJACENT TO THE STATE UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK AT BUFFALO) • AN INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION Paul Kurtz. Chairman; professor emeritus of philosophy, State University of New York at Buffalo Barry Karr, Executive Director Joe Nicked, Senior Research Fellow Lee Nisbet. Special Projects Director

FELLOWS

James E. Alcock,* psychologist. York Univ.. Henry Gordon, magician, columnist, Toronto Joe Nickell,* senior research fellow, CSICOP Toronto Stephen Jay Gould, Museum of Comparative Lee Nisbet* philosopher, Medaille College Jerry Andrus, magician and inventor. Albany. Zoology, Harvard Univ. Bill Nye, science educator and television host Oregon Susan Haack, Cooper Senior Scholar in Arts Nye Labs Marcia Angell, M.D.. former ed tor-in-chief, and Sciences, prof, of philosophy. University James E. Oberg, science writer New England Journal of Medicine of Miami Loren Pankratz, psychologist, Oregon Health C. E. M. Hansel, psychologist, Univ. of Wales Robert A. Baker, psychologist. Univ. of Sciences Univ. Al Hibbs, scientist Jet Propulsion Laboratory Kentucky John Paulos, mathematician, Temple Lniv. Stephen Barrett M.D., psychiatrist, author, Douglas Hofstadter, professor of human Steven Pinker, cognitive scientist, MIT consumer advocate, Allentown, Pa. understanding and cognitive science, Indiana Milton Rosenberg, psychologist Univ. of Barry Beyerstein,* biopsychologist, Simon Univ. Chicago Fraser Univ.. Vancouver, B.C., Canada Gerald Holton, Mallinckrodt Professor of Wallace Sampson, M.D., clinical professor of Irving Biederman, psychologist, Univ. of Physics and professor of history of science. medicine. Stanford Univ. Southern California Harvard Univ. Amardeo Sarma, engineer, head of dept. Susan Blackmore, psychologist, Univ. of the Ray Hyman,* psychologist, Univ. of Oregon at T-Nova Deutsche Telekom West of England, Bristol Leon Jaroff. sciences editor emeritus. Time Henri Broch, physicist. Univ. of Nice, France Sergei Kapitza. editor, Russian edition. Innovationsgesellschaft mbH Headquarters, Jan Harold Brunvand. folklorist, professor Scientific American executive director, GWUP, Germany. emeritus of English. Univ. of Utah Philip J. Klass, • aerospace writer, engineer Evry Schatzman, president, French Physics Vern Bullough, professor of history, California Edwin C. Krupp, astronomer, director, Griffith Association State Univ. at Northridge Observatory Eugenie Scott physical anthropologist execu­ Mario Bunge, philosopher, McGill University Paul Kurtz,' chairman, CSICOP tive director, National Center for Science John R. Cole, anthropologist, editor. National Lawrence Kusche, science writer Education Center for Science Education Leon Lederman, emeritus director, Fermilab; Thomas A. Sebeok, anthropologist, Frederick Crews, literary and cultural critic Nobel laureate in physics linguist. Indiana Univ. professor emeritus of English, Univ. of Scott Lilienfeld, psychologist, Emory Univ. Robert Sheaffer. science writer California, Berkeley Lin Zixin, former editor. Science and Elie A. Shneour, biochemist, author, F. H. C. Crick, biophysicist. Salk Inst, for Technology Daily (China) director, Biosystems Research Institute, Biological Studies, La Jolla, Calif; Nobel Prize Jere Lipps, Museum of Paleontology, Univ. of La Jolla, Calif. laureate California. Berkeley Dick Smith, film producer, publisher, Terrey Richard Dawkins, zoologist. Oxford Univ. Elizabeth Loftus, professor of psychology, Hills, N.S.W., Australia Cornells de Jager, professor of astrophysics, Univ. of Washington Robert Steiner, magician, author, Univ. of Utrecht, the Netherlands Paul MacCready, scientist/engineer, El Cerrito, Calif. Bernard Dixon, science writer, London, U.K. AeroVironment. Inc., Monrovia, Calif. Jill Cornell Tarter, astronomer. SETI Institute, Paul Edwards, philosopher, editor, John Maddox, editor emeritus of Nature Mountain View. Calif. Encyclopedia of Philosophy David Marks, psychologist City University, London. Carol Tavris, psychologist and author, Los Kenneth Feder, professor of anthropology. Walter C. McCrone, microscopist, McCrone Angeles, Calif. Central Connecticut State Univ. Research Institute Stephen Toulmin, professor of philosophy, Antony Flew, philosopher, Reading Univ., U.K. Mario Mendez-Acosta, journalist and Univ. of Southern California Andrew Fraknoi, astronomer. Foothill College, science writer, Mexico City, Mexico Marilyn vos Savant, Parade magazine con­ Los Altos Hills. Calif. Marvin Minsky, professor of media arts and tributing editor and CBS News correspon­ Kcndrick Frazier, * science writer, editor, sciences, M.I.T. dent SKEPTICAL INQUIRER David Morrison, space scientist. NASA Ames Steven Weinberg, professor of physics and Yves Galifret. vice-president Affiliated Research Center astronomy, Univ. of Texas at Austin; Nobel Organizations: France Richard A. Muller, professor of physics, Univ. Prize laureate Martin Gardner,* author, critic of Calif.. Berkeley Marvin Zelen, statistician. Harvard Univ. Murray Gell-Mann, professor of physics, Santa H. Narasimhaiah, physicist president. Fe Institute; Nobel Prize laureate Bangalore Science Forum, India * Member, CSICOP Executive Council Thomas Gilovich, psychologist Cornell Univ. Dorothy Nelkin, sociologist New York Univ. (Affiliations given for identification only.)

Visit the CSICOP Web site at http://www.csicop.org

The SKEPTICAL INQUIRER (ISSN 0194-6730) is published bimonthly by the Committee for the Articles, reports, reviews, and letters published in the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER represent the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal. 1310 Sweet Home Rd.. Amhera, NY views and work of individual authors. Their publication does not necessarilr constitute an 14228. Printed in U.SA. Periodicals postage paid at Buffalo, NY. Subscription prices: one year endorsement by CSICOP or its members unless so stated. f«x issues), $35: two years. $58: three years. SSI: single isvue. $4 <>V Canadian and forngn orders: Copyright 62001 by the Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Payment in U.S. hinds drawn on a U.S. bank must accompany orders; please add US$10 per year Paranormal. All rights reserved. The SKEPTICAL INQUIRER is available on 16mm microfilm, for shipping. Canadian and foreign customen are encouraged to use Visa or MasterCard. 35mm microfilm, and 105mm microfiche from Universitv Microfilms Internationa] and is Inquiries from the media and the public about the work of the Committee should be made indexed in the Reader's Guide to Periodical Literature. to Paul Kurtz, Chairman. CSICOP. Box 703. Amherst. NY 14226-0703. TeL: 716-636-1425. Subscription! and changes of address should be addressed to: SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. Box FAX: 716-636-1733. -'OX Amhem. NY 14226-0703. Or call toll-free 1-800-634-1610 (outside U.S call 716-636- Manuscripts, letters, books for review, and editorial inquiries should be addressed to 1425). Old address as welt as new are necessary for change of subscribers address, with six Kcndrick Frazier. Editor. SKEPTICAl INQUIRER, 944 Deer Drive NE. Albuquerque, weeks advance notice. SKEPTICAL INQUIRER subscribers may not speak on behalf of CSICOP NM 87122. FAX 505-828-2080. For Guide for Authors, sec page 64 in the September / or the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. October 2000 issue, or send a fax request to the Editor. It is also available on the Web at Postmaster: Send changes of address to SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. Box 703. Amherst. NY http://www.csicop.org/si/guide-for-authors.litml. 14226-0703. Skeptical Inquirer May / June 2001 • VOL 25, NO. 3

J Mii.tmina

ARTICLES CSICOP'S 25TH ANNIVERSARY

22 The Shrinking Filedrawer 46 From the Editor's Seat: 25 Years On the Validity of Statistical of Science and Skepticism Meta-analyses in Parapsychology KENDRICK FRAZIER It may be easier to explain parapsychological experiments on the basis of chance than has been previously thought. 50 Science vs. Pseudoscience, DOUGLAS M. STOKES Nonscience, and Nonsense Twenty-Five Years of CSICOP 26 The Pokemon Panic of 1997 JAMES ALCOCK In 1997, an episode of the cartoon Pokemon allegedly induced seizures and other ailments in thousands of 55 CSICOP Timeline: A Capsule Japanese children. Though popularly attributed to History in 85 Easy Steps photosensitive epilepsy, the episode has many of the hallmarks of mass hysteria. KENDRICK FRAZIER BENJAMIN RADFORD

32 The Antinous Prophecies COLUMNS A Nostradamoid Project The prophecies of Nostradamus are said to foretell events EDITOR'S NOTE 4 centuries in his future. Are the prophecies merely verbal ink blots to which humans "fit" events? Here's a test using NEWS AND COMMENT random simulations. Skeptics Challenge Psychic Mediums on CNN's Larry King Live I CLIFFORD A. PICKOVER Evolution Returns to Kansas: Board Supports Science Standards / Urban Legend Makes International News / Fox Special 37 Common Myths of Questions Moon Landing But Not Its Own Credulity / Richard Wiseman Tries to Tune into Ever-Elusive ESP / Faster than Light? Children's Behavior Well. Yes and No S A number of false beliefs about children's behavior are very common among parents and the lay public. This article CONFERENCE REPORT summarizes scientific findings and applies critical thinking Gobbledygook and Charm: to show what's tripped up so many of us. Still the Right Formula for Selling Snake Oil CATHERINE FIORELLO MELISSA POLLAK 14

White House Commission on Complementary 40 Bertrand Russell and the Ideal of and Alternative Medicine is Biased Critical Receptiveness PAUL KURTZ 16 Russell's rational and moderate skepticism entails an ideal of inquiry based on critical receptiveness which views the NOTES OF A FRINGE-WATCHER acquisition of knowledge as difficult but not impossible. Primal Scream: A Persistent New Age Therapy MARTIN GARDNER 17 WILLIAM HARE INVESTIGATIVE FILES In Search of Fisher's Ghost JOE NICKELL 20 BOOK REVIEWS FOLLOW-UP The New Know-Nothings: The Political Foes of Putting a Better Face on the 'Face' on Mars the Scientific Study of Human Nature GARY P POSNER .65 By Morton Hunt NEW BOOKS 62 SCOTT O. LIUENFELD 59 SCIENCE BEST SELLERS 63 Mean Genes: From Sex to Money to Food: Taming Our Prfmai Instincts ARTICLES OF NOTE 62 By Terry Burnham and Jay Phelan DANIEL GRASSAM 61 LETTERS TO THE EDITOR 68 Skeptical Inquirer TNI HAGAZINI fOR SCIfNCI AND RfASOM

EDITOR Kendrick Frazier We're Too Young for a 25th, and other Delusions EDITORIAL BOARD James E. Alcock Barry Beyerstein ow can it be twenty-five years already since CSICOP, publisher of die Thomas Casten HSKEPTICAL INQUIRER, was founded? I was there at the founding meeting, Martin Gardner April 30-May 1, 1976 (!), but I swear it was only about ten or fifteen years ago. I Ray Hyman Lawrence Jones know I am no more than fifteen years older than I was then. Really! I'm still Philip J. Klass young. Would I kid you? Paul Kurtz Joe Nickell Well, despite the apparently relativistic time compression, it has been a wild Lee Nisbet and eventful, sometimes even amazing, perhaps even fruitful ... twenty-five Amardeo Sarma years. In this issue we begin our twenty-fifth anniversary observance with the first Bela Scheiber of several short anniversary sections that we plan to spread over three of the next Eugenie Scott CONSULTING EDITORS four issues. Robert A. Baker We originally considered a single-subject anniversary-observance special issue, Susan J. Blackmore John R. Cole but that would have kept us from giving you our usual variety of substantive arti­ Kenneth L. Feder cles on diverse subjects. So we are going to try to do both—to take appropriate C. E. M. Hansel notice of how this special enterprise all began, with some short features and per­ E. C. Krupp Scott O. Lilienfeld sonal perspectives on what has happened since, and also to present the kinds of David F. Marks critiques and evaluations for which you are reading us in the first place. James E. Oberg Robert Sheaffer This first anniversary section leads off with personal recollections by me and David E. Thomas by Jim Alcock, a CSICOP Fellow and member of the Executive Council for that Richard Wiseman entire time (he's still young too!). One refreshing aspect of Jim's essay: He points MANAGING EDITOR out something we rarely emphasize—while a lot of what we do is serious, over the Benjamin Radford years we've had a lot of fun doing it. (Shhhh! Don't tell anyone!) In future issues ART DIRECTOR Lisa A. Hutter we'll hear from chairman Paul Kurtz, the mastermind who started it all, and oth- PRODUCTION ers. All of these are excerpted from a forthcoming book. Skeptical Odysseys Paul Loynes (Prometheus 2001), edited by Paul Kurtz in honor of CSICOP's twenty-fifth CARTOONIST anniversary. The many eminent contributors to the book could write on any Rob Pudim WEB PAGE DESIGNER topic, but for these SI essays we've selected several who reflected in very personal Patrick Fitzgerald terms about CSICOP and the modern skeptical movement itself. PUBLISHER'S REPRESENTATIVE We would be interested in hearing from any readers whose experience with Barry Karr CSICOP and the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER spans all or most of these twenty-five CORPORATE COUNSEL years. We are also interested in hearing from new readers and younger readers for Brenton N. VerPloeg BUSINESS MANAGER your own perspectives on science and skepticism today. We have renewed our­ Sandra Lesniak selves repeatedly throughout our existence. In fact, SI has been in its present for­ FISCAL OFFICER mat and bimonthly frequency only since the start of 1995, and Paul Paulin CSICOP is creating new programs continually. We strive to be lively, dynamic, CHIEF DEVELOPMENT OFFICER Arthur Urrows and vital for the new challenges of the twenty-first century. CHIEF DATA OFFICER * • * Michael Cione Our regular content leads with Douglas M. Stokes's new analysis of die "file- STAFF Patricia Beauchamp drawer" problem in parapsychology—how to properly allow for the likelihood Jodi Chapman that experiments with positive results will be preferentially reported or published. Allison Cossitt Stokes works within the parapsychological community, but he is an internal critic Michelle Keiper Jennifer Miller of the field's statistical methods. His new analysis, supported by his own comp­ Matthew Nisbet uter simulations, finds a serious flaw—a wrong assumption—in statistical meta­ Heidi Sander analyses of experiments traditionally used in parapsychology research. "It is one of Ranjit Sandhu Anthony Santa Lucia those strikingly novel observations diat once brought to our attention is obvious," John Sullivan said our reviewer. It may well have significant implications. It would appear to Vance Vigrass considerably weaken the contemporary case for psi. PUBLIC RELATIONS DIRECTOR Kevin Christopher INQUIRY MEDIA PRODUCTIONS Thomas Flynn DIRECTOR OF LIBRARIES Timothy S. Binga

The SKEPTICAL INQUIRER is the official journal of the Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal. an international organization.

4 May/June 2001 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER NEWS AND COMMENT

Skeptics Challenge Psychic Mediums on CNN's Larry King Live

KEVIN CHRISTOPHER was told that "John Edward does not Jaroff whether he thought John Edward respond to criticism.") and others are frauds. "I think they're CSICOP Chairman and SKEPTICAL However, when pressed about allega­ very good at what they do," replied INQUIRER publisher Paul Kurtz and Time tions from Michael O'Neill in Jaroffs Jaroff, "but what they do is baloney"— magazine science editor emeritus Leon article, Edward waffled: namely cold reading. Browne bristled at Jaroff (also a CSICOP Fellow) appeared KING: "He quotes a Michael O'Neill, the remarks. "I don't think he's done his on CNN's Larry King Live March 6 to who attended one of your shows, and homework very well," snapped Browne, discuss mediums. The show proved to be writes that O'Neill claims that his alleging that she has "saved baby's lives," one of the most balanced nationally tele­ encounter on the show was edited and "found people that were dead," and vised forums for skeptics to debate psy­ gave a false impression. Clips of him nod­ "solved crimes." Later in the program, chics in recent years. Six other guests ding yes' spliced into the videotape about when Browne again rattled off a resume appeared on King's program: of paranormal achievements— mediums Sylvia Browne, John "finding bodies, and World Edward, and James Van Praagh, Trade Center with Ted along with Rabbi Schmuley Gunderson and all that"— Boteach, retired physicist Dale Kurtz retorted: "You throw out Graff, and former FBI profiler these wild claims that you've Clint Van Zandt. done this, have done that; they Larry King began by bring­ don't hold up under scrutiny." ing Jaroffs critical March 5, Kurtz blasted mediums on 2001, Time article "Talking to intellectual and moral the Dead" on John Edward to grounds: "Well, I think the viewers' attention (see Articles claims are preposterous. ... If of Note, page 63). He then someone makes a claim, an showed a clip from the Sci Fi extraordinary claim, then we Channel's Crossing Over with ask for evidence of the facts. Paul Kurtz appears on Larry King Live opposite modern-day mediums. John Edward, in which Edward And there are no facts to sup­ delivers a child's message from port this. What we're faced the beyond to weeping parents in the statements [to] which he remembers dis­ with are psychic sharps, like card sharps: studio audience. agreeing. Is O'Neill wrong?" sleight of hand, sleight of mind. They're King then quoted a skeptical descrip­ EDWARD: "You know, I have to say using methods of deception to confuse tion of mediumship from Jaroffs article: that I would believe so, because I don't poor people who have suffered death "It's a sophisticated form of the game believe that they'd edit the show in that and are bereaved and I think this is not Twenty Questions, during which the sub­ capacity. And again, I think diat this is only false, but also immoral." ject, anxious to hear from die dead, sel­ subjective to somebody's experience... . Later in the show John Edward dom realizes that he, not the medium or I can't speak for, you know, Michael, I played his wild card for scientific the departed, is supplying the answers." can only speak for myself." respectability, citing his participation in Edward called Jaroffs article "insult­ When King asked how he would Gary Schwartz' study, conducted at the ing to the intelligence of people in the prove his abilities, Edward replied, "You Human Energy Systems Laboratory at audience" and "the credibility and the know, I think that to prove it, is a per­ the University of Arizona, as docu­ integrity" of those who work on his sonal thing. It is like saying, prove God. mented scientific evidence of his powers. show. When asked to respond to allega­ If you have a belief system and you have "Gary Schwartz believes in the tooth tions that Edward's demonstrations were faith, then there is nothing really more fairy," Jaroff blasted back, "He believes aided by eavesdropping, questionnaires, than that." Throughout the night, in UFOs. He believes in levitation." and crafty editing, Edward replied, "All Edward, Browne, and Van Praagh Rabbi Boteach, despite being a cred­ of that is completely wrong," suggesting insisted that any proof of mediumship ulous friend and supporter of Uri Geller, that Jaroff had not attempted to inter­ was a matter of personal experience and planted his feet firmly on the side of the view him or people working on the preference, above the merely mortal skeptics when asked about his belief in show. (Jaroff later pointed oui when he realm of critical, scientific investigation. mediumship: "Well, aren't you a bit sur­ tried to contact people on the show, he In the next segment, King asked prised that the only message that the

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/June 2001 5 NEWS AND COMMENT

dead seem to be able to give to us is "Burgess ... in and around Memphis." people. They're here to destroy people." [that] someone had a nickname 'Miss "I don't know if this is funny or sad," A full transcript of the March 6, Piggy' and they can only tell us that, you Kurtz commented. "She's engaged in 2001, Larry King Live is archived on the know, I had a heart condition? For guesswork.... The scientific commu­ CNN.com Web site at www.cnn.com/ goodness sake, if that's the case then— nity has been investigating these claims TRANSCRIPTS/lkl.html. no pun intended—to hell with for a century and a half. It can find no them. ... I mean, I would think that if hard evidence that people can commu­ Kevin Christopher is Public Relations someone is up there in the cosmos unre­ nicate with the dead, no hard evidence Director at CSICOP. strained by the constraints of the body, that psychics can help detectives." they could tell us about the great secrets If the denizens of the spirit realm had of existence, where is God, and how can any chance to prove their existence to Evolution Returns to we better human life?. . . Instead they're skeptics in one fell swoop, it would have Kansas: Board Supports telling us things like 'I choked on a been on Larry King Live. Alas, they were Science Standards chicken bone and I'm here to tell you content to let James Van Praagh choke that I don't hold you accountable for on national TV. To die relief of scientists and science edu­ serving me that soup.'" A caller from Williston, Vermont, cators both locally and nationwide, evolu­ A former chief hostage negotiator for looked to Van Praagh to find out more tion has returned to Kansas. In a widely the FBI, Clint Van Zandt, described about a brother-in-law who had watched vote on Valentine's Day, himself as open to the possibility of psy­ "passed." Van Praagh responded with February 14, evolution was restored as a chic abilities but noted that psychic vague intuitions about a throat or central theory to Kansas school standards. practices were clearly irrational: "One of breathing problem, family separations, The newly constituted State Board the first things a psychic asks a law someone he couldn't trust, a tattoo, and of Education voted 7 to 3 to approve enforcement officer to do is take your a baby. Despite a string of generalities the new science standards. The new reason and logic and set it aside." When applicable to many American males. standards include questions on evolu­ asked by Larry King whether he had Van Praagh came up empty handed: tion, which will now be considered one ever found a psychic crucial to the solu­ KING: Ma'am, is any of that clear to of the unifying concepts of the state's tion of a crime, Van Zandt responded: you? science curriculum. References to the "I've seen law enforcement try a lot of CALLER: No, I have to say it really great age of Earth and to the Big Bang times. When I've seen them participate isn't.... theory of the creation of the universe in the solution of a crime, my experi­ KING: Does that mean, James, you were also restored. ence and the experience of my col­ missed on this one? The new standards are based on sci­ leagues is that it's usually been some By the end of the evening, Browne, entific theories accepted by die majority type of vague information, like a kidnap Edward and Van Praagh were increas­ of scientists around die world. They victim was kidnapped somewhere up ingly irritable. Faced with skepticism, draw on documents from the National along the Great Lakes and we've been Van Praagh was reduced to aspersions of Academy of Sciences, the American told, 'You'll find the victim buried near the motives of Kurtz, Jaroff, and Association for the Advancement of a body of water.' Well, we understand CSICOP: Science, and the National Science the Great Lakes are a body of water. . . . VAN PRAAGH: "I just want to say Teachers Association. The three organi­ I know there are people who will say, that it's interesting that these people zations issued a joint statement praising 'Well, we've been a consultant to the here are in the business to destroy and the new board's actions. FBI.' But as far as seeing a case solved destruct, while we are here to heal peo­ "These standards can and should or a kidnap victim recovered—eidier ple and to help people grow. And these serve as a model for other states that are dead or alive—based solely on the infor­ people, you have to look very carefully considering revising their own stan­ mation of a psychic, no." at what these people, their jobs, are. dards," the statement said. Toward the end of his show, Larry They are here to destroy." The vote reverses an August 1999 King set aside time for Browne, Edward, KING: "Well the Rabbi isn't here to .111ion of the Board on a 6 to 4 vote diat and Van Praagh to perform readings and destroy. The writer isn't. Why are they had stripped evolution from its accepted have them analyzed by the skeptics. here? They're [here] to investigate or be place at the center of biological studies Sylvia Browne did a reading for one caller skeptics. I mean, that's ..." and created a furor that embarrassed from Santa Fe, New Mexico, looking for PRAAGH: "OK, let's hear the skep­ Kansas educators and politicians and rip­ a family history for her parents. Closing tics dien, 'CSICOP's,' whatever. They're pled throughout the nation. Governor her eyes and focusing on die spiritual just here to destroy people. They're not Bill Graves had called the Board's 1999 realm, she fastened onto the name here to encourage people, to enlighten action "terrible, tragic, embarrassing" (SI

6 May/June 2001 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER NEWS AND COMMENT

November/December 1999). the positive vote, some people in the Urban Legend Makes That vote aroused the state's scien­ audience applauded. tific community and others concerned "I believe now that we have science International News about creationist interventions in edu­ standards that the rest of the world In late 2000, a horrifying news story cational standards for science courses. could look to," said board member came out of Russia: A grandmother was New candidates, with an invigorated Carol Rupee, who voted for them. arrested for allegedly trying to sell her pro-science movement in Kansas "I'm really gratified that this chapter five-year-old grandson Andrei. Police in behind them, actively campaigned for is over," said John Stager, a Kansas Ryazan, south of Moscow, said that the restoration of evolution content. On State University professor and co-chair­ grandmother told the boy he was going August 1, 2000, two of the six members man of the 27-member committee of to Disneyland. With the help of the who had voted for the watered-down science educators who wrote the new boy's uncle, little Andrei was handed 1999 standards were rejected in the standards. But he cautioned that the over to a man in exchange for $90,000. Republican primaries. A third member fight is not over. resigned and moved out of the state. But the story is more than just a tragic John Calvert, managing director of Sue Gamble, a moderate who ran on a talc of a child sold into slavery or prosti­ the Intelligent Design Network, which pro-science education plank, defeated tution: according to the uncle and police, proposes that life arose not through nat­ Board chairwoman Linda Holloway, Andrei was sold to a man who would ural processes but through design, who had supported the creationist- dien take him to "the West," where he expressed disappointment in the vote. influenced standards (SI, Novem­ would be killed and his kidneys and orJier He said his group plans to push intelli­ ber/December 2000). organs would be removed and sold. gent design to school boards across the country. That's the story, anyway. That set die stage for new standards Several news organizations carried restoring evolution, the Big Bang, and Said Shawnee, Kansas, businessman some version of the article, including Earth's age to science curricula. The Dave Raffel, an evolution supporter: the Times of India, the Associated Press, board discussed the standards for thirty "This is one step down a long road diat and Cable News Network (CNN). The minutes. A pro-creationist revision there doesn't seem to be any end to." story first appeared October 28, 2000, amendment was defeated. Then, with in the Associated Press, and was pub­ eight television cameras watching, —Kendrick Frazier lished exactly a month later by CNN. including one from CNN, the board Kendrick Frazier is Editor of the voted 7 to 3 for the new standards. After The CNN story was the most complete SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. of the lot, with photos of a young boy and a woman in dark glasses and a hat, identified as Andrei's grandmother. The grandmother claimed that she was simply putting the orphaned boy up for adoption. In the CNN.com version (available at www.cnn.com/2000/world/europe/ 11/28/russia.children), a short video clip accompanies the story. The piece, narrated by correspondent Steve Harrigan, identifies the uncle as Sergei Tkachov and a police spokesman as Dmitri Korneyev. It also includes what is claimed to be undercover surveillance videotape, though much of the footage looks suspiciously staged. There arc several reasons why this story is suspect. First, in the print ver­ sions, the principals are identified only by their first names. Other than the boy "Andrei" and his grandmother "Nina," no one else is identified. Quotes are unattributed, with phraseology such as "a police detective said . . ." and "police

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/June 2001 7 NEWS AND COMMENT

said." Of course, "police" don't say any­ bought and sold in economically international adoption 'deal,' not for thing; if a certain police officer says depressed areas is firmly established organs trafficking which was the surreal something, then he or she should usu­ (usually they are used for child labor or layer added on to a story that was sad ally be identified. This sort of writing prostitution). In addition, there is also enough as it was." helps obscure the sources, thus making unquestionably a global effort to provide It is also possible diat die story's sensa­ follow-up verification difficult. children and babies for adoption— tional details were encouraged by Russian The story falters on its own logic. A usually legally, but sometimes not. There organized crime. A motive for inflating five-year-old's organs, specifically the is, however, a giant leap of inference the story is provided by Viktor Vasilievich parts die article says he was sold for— between saying that the child was sold Luneev, a professor and chief scientific the kidneys, heart, or lungs—would (or illegally adopted) and saying diat he researcher at the prestigious Russian likely be unusable. No adult could ben­ was sold to be subsequently killed for his Academy of Sciences. In a report tided efit from a five-year-old's organs. They organs. Some police officials undoubt­ Crime in the Twentieth Century: would be much too small and underde­ edly believe in the commerce of stolen International Criminalogical Analysis veloped to simply insert into a grown childrens organs, and in many places the (available at www.american.edu/trans adult. And it stretches credulity even urban legend is wholly believed. crime/work), Luneev notes that in recent further to posit that there is one or more Ms. Ofelia Calcetas-Santos, of die years it has become fashionable in Russia five-year-old children in American or Office of the United Nations High to sensationalize crime stories, in particu­ European hospitals awaiting stolen Commissioner for Human Rights, isn't lar ones with a possible connection to hearts, eyes, kidneys, or lungs. convinced that the trade in children's organized crime. In fact, one of the tactics I wrote about diis urban legend in a organs exists, calling the stories "rumors." of Russian organized crime is "Dissem­ previous issue ("Bitter Harvest: The According to the 1999 Report of the ination of frightening rumors as to their Organ-snatching Urban Legends," SI Special Rapporteur on the Sale of Children, power, which brings criminal organiza­ 23(3) May/June 1999), and die reasons to Child Prostitution and Child Pornography, tions more benefit than harm, since it be suspicious. It's important to realize that "Rumors persist diat there exists an illegal demoralizes witnesses, victims, journal­ organs can't simply be pulled out of one trade in human organs, and die Special ists, and law enforcement organs and sup­ person and put into another; transplants Rapporteur has received allegations diat ports the criminal spirit of rank and file can't be done in someone's basement. street children in [Latin America] and the members who execute functions." Sophisticated medical equipment must be Russian Federation are being killed so diat Steve Harrigan, of CNN's Moscow used, and donors and recipients must be their organs can be used in transplant bureau (from whose television report the carefully matched. Blood and tissue typ­ operations. Such allegations have recurred print version of the story was taken), has ing and histocompatibility tests must be repeatedly for over twenty years, but to another take on the story. He believes done in advance. Well-paid medical staff, the best of the Special Rapporteur's that the grandmodier did indeed believe both here and abroad, are unlikely to risk knowledge, nobody has been convicted of she could get money for Andrei's organs their careers and reputations performing being connected with such an offense." (regardless of whether or not she actually such illegal and unethical procedures. There are several scenarios under could). He noted that local police Urban legends, presumed by some to which this story may have occurred. showed reporters their videotape of the be primarily a Western phenomenon, First, the grandmother may have (as she woman being tackled and arrested widi are in fact global. The film Mute Wittiest, claimed), been simply selling the child money attempting to make die deal. The whose topic was the urban legend of die in an illegal but common adoption question is a deal for what? A deal for an snuff film, for example, was set (and scheme, with no intention of selling the illegal adoption or a deal ultimately for filmed) in Russia. boy's organs. The fantastic and lurid organ theft? And wouldn't the video look Another oddity about the case is that details of the organ-snatching aspect die same either way? After all, the dis­ while die grandmother and uncle are were later added by die press. This inter­ tinction is one of intent. photographed, (partially) identified, pretation is endorsed by Nancy Scheper- Harrigan's take may be the correct and arrested, no mention at all is made Hughes, professor of anthropology at one, but it leaves odier questions unan­ of diose allegedly buying the organs. the University of California at Berkeley swered, including why those allegedly While die grandmother could get three and co-founder of Organswatch, a trafficking in children's organs weren't to ten years in jail, die story is curiously group fighting the inequitable distribu­ named or arrested. silent about the person (s) she "sold" tion of organs. She was interviewed by Andrei to. Presumably, they would be die BBC, and writes that "My under­ —Benjamin Radford the larger threat. standing is that the grandmother was There can be a seamy side to the willing to hand over her grandchild for a Benjamin Radford is Managing Editor of the transfer of children. That children are cash payment, but that it was a paid SKEPTICAL INQUIRER.

8 May/)une 2001 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER NEWS AND COMMENT

Fox Special Questions 1. No stars are visible in the sky. The scatters off of objects including the lunar program claimed that since diere is no surface itself as well as astronauts and Moon Landing But Not atmosphere, stars should be visible in the their equipment and fills the shadows Its Own Credulities black sky of the lunar surface pho­ with light. The scattered light from the tographs, yet none are visible. Despite surface is an effective source of shadow Fox television aired a special on the having two photographic experts in their illumination. Any real photographic alleged Moon landing hoax conspiracy on number, the pro-hoax proponents are expert should be familiar with the use of February 15, 2001. I had hoped the spe­ unable to recognize the reason die stars reflectors to help fill a shadow, yet the cial might include a skeptical treatment, are not seen. The photographic expo­ two such "experts" on the Fox special but all hopes were dashed as the program sures are set to record a brightly-lit day­ fail to mention this important detail. unfolded. They presented the arguments light scene. These exposures are nearly 5. Comparison with Capricorn One. of the "true believers" without any signif­ identical with the exposures expected on At one point, the producer of Capricorn icant skeptical rebuttal. The program Earth and are too short to correctly One compares the budget of his film to claimed to "let die viewer decide for expose the faint images of stars. the total budget of the Apollo program themselves" about whedier there was a 2. The flags are seen to wave as if in a and suggests that the relative budgets hoax or not, but failed to present a bal­ breeze. The Fox special showed several would allow the nearly perfect fakery of anced program, instead giving the viewers instances of the American flag flapping the Apollo missions. The narrator goes a highly biased pro-hoax set of evidence around as if it were blowing in a wind, on to compare die events in the Moon on which to base dieir conclusions. despite the lunar vacuum. However, in landing films with those from the The "star" of the Fox special was every instance, an astronaut can be seen movie, suggesting even that perhaps the Moon landing "skeptic" Bill Kaysing, actively adjusting the flag or having just Moon landing copied die movie. The whose credentials include seven years in finished adjusting the flag. After the narrator failed to point out that the film the technical publications department motion damps out, the flag comes to was released in 1977, some eight years for the Rocketdyne research depart­ rest, just as it should. In one telling after the first Moon landing. ment in Simi Hills and who claims to scene, an astronaut is actually twisting Some might wonder what the harm have had a top-secret clearance at that the flagpole as the viewer is expected not is in credulous programs like this one. time. Other "experts" who supported to notice. But given the high levels of scientific the hoax included the producer of the 3. Identical backgrounds are seen illiteracy in America today, surely we movie Capricorn One, Paul Lazarus; with differing foreground objects. The don't need programs such as this confus­ author and scientist Ralph Rene; pho­ Fox special showed two photographs ing the public with bad science. tographic expert David Percy; Jan obtained during the Apollo 15 flight. Furthermore, their investigative ap­ Lundberg, an employee of the One showed the Lunar Module sitting proach is biased and uncritical, looking Hasselblad company; Boris Valen- in front of a background of mountains. only for the evidence that supports dieir tinovich Volinov, a Russian cosmonaut; The second photograph shows the claims, all the while claiming to be skep­ the son and wife of astronaut Gus same background mountains, but with tical and scientific. A one-sided presen­ Grissom; and astronaut candidate Brian a boulder-filled crater in the fore­ tation such as this leads the viewers to O'Leary, whose comments may well ground. This apparent anomaly shows only one conclusion—that there was in have been taken out of context in order just how uncritical the Fox special fact a Moon landing hoax and a con­ to appear to support die claims of a was. The mountains in question are spiracy to cover it up. Moon landing hoax. On the anti-hoax several miles behind the Lunar Unfortunately, as time goes by, fewer side were only three experts whose on- Module. Two photographs taken even and fewer of those who were involved in air commentary did little to actually a few hundred feet apart can show the the Apollo program and those who rebut the hoax proponents arguments. same mountains, nearly unchanged, watched in amazement as twelve men During the hour-long special, Fox especially at the level of examination walked on die Moon are around to pro­ trotted out most of die tried and true shown on the program, with two rather vide witness to those events. The theo­ arguments used by me hoax believers. different foregrounds. ries of the hoax "true believers" defile the This author and others have pointed out 4. You can see details in the shadows. achievements of Apollo and ignore the flaws in all of dicse arguments prior to The hoax proponents claim that with­ physics and logic. All of the evidence the production of die program on Web out an atmosphere, there should be no and the accounts point to only one con­ pages and Internet Usenet groups, but Fox details visible in the shadows, since there clusion: Apollo landed twelve men on made little attempt to address die argu­ is only one light source—the Sun. the Moon. For more in depth commen­ ments. Here are a few of the arguments However, once again they overlook the tary on the Fox program, visit my hoax presented by the hoax proponents. obvious explanation, namely that light debunking Web pages at pirlwww.lpl.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/June 2001 9 Fund Future CSICOP AT THE CENTER FOR INQUIRY Promote CSICOP

Using the Media & Telecommunications to Promote Science and Reason ^ The Fund for the Future is a capital campaign to provide CSICOP with the resources Jl needed to more effectively influence media and public opinion. The 90s were defined bj a telecommunications revolution, along with an explosion of misinformation available to the scholar and citizen alike. The hunger for superstition, pseudoscience, the paranormal and miraculous solutions has never been more acute. The Ten-Year Plan Contributions are needed for current priorities: • Increased media appearances by skeptical spokespersons • Press releases, opinion pieces and media alerts » Greater exposure through the Internet, including webcasting ' National initiatives coordinated by the Council for Media Integrity • Instructional materials introducing skepticism to elementary and secondary school students Video production How Can You Help? CSICOP has established its expertise and integrity. It's time to command more media attention and a larger audience. The Center for Inquiry Fund for the Future is about new methods of outreach and broader influence, and is driven by an ambitious ten-year strategic plan for growth. . We depend on the support of readers and friends to continue leading the international I skeptical movement. Gifts to the Fund for the Future provide the resources we need to respondt o today's challenges. All gifts are gratefully accepted. The Fund for the Future welcomes gifts of encourage­ ment and major investments. ^ash contributions and gifts of stock are needed for immediate growth and new initiatives. We also )ffer a range of planned giving opportunities, from bequests to assorted tax-advantaged trusts and jooled funds. Planned gifts support our work in the future and can provide an income stream for you ind a beneficiary. You may also make a gift supporting the general endowment, or establish a special lurpose fund underwriting a long-term project that expresses your personal interests and commitment lo skepticism. In today's stock market, gifts of highly appreciated securities offer particular advantages to the donor. Mien donating stock to a charitable organization, you avoid taxes and maximize the impact of [he asset you are donating. L'ontact the Development Director at (716) 636-7571 to discuss accomplishing your philanthropic and financial goals and contributing to the Fund for the Future. CSICOP at the Center for Inquiry =*, P.O. Box 703 Amherst, NY 142264)703 (716) 636-1425 ext. 311 BUI lye "Tltc Science Fax (716) 636-1733 Guff,"Joe Sickell, and entertainer Sit '•< Alien apjtear Council for Media Integrity mi II in,I'm show. Formed just weeks after its inclusion in the fen-Year Plan, the Council for Media Integrity monitors and challenges media programs that convey unfounded claims and mislead the public about science. Members include E. 0. Wilson, Stephen Jay Gould, and many others. CSICOP will invest in electronic infrastructure to facilitate rapid response to irresponsible programs.

Enhanced Library Resources The Center for Inquiry's skeptics' library—already the finest '.'o-chair of the Fiinrl for the Future Campaign: above, of its kind in the world—needs additional funding to enlarge its luthor and critic Martin core collection and add electronic media. Worldwide modem access to Gardner. the library's catalog is already nearly complete.

Adult Education rhe Council cosponsors the Center for Inquiry Institute, which has already expanded its offerings to include a new three-year certificate program in science and skepticism. Courses are scheduled in \mherst, Los Angeles, and other cities.

Regional Outreach ft'ith the establishment of The Center for Inquiry-West (Los Angeles), The Center for Inquiry-Midwest (Kansas City) and The Center for Inquiry-Rockies (Boulder, Colorado), pant steps have been taken to enhance direct field service to skeptical activists. Additional regional centers are planned, with expanded calendars of activities.

Focusing Upon the Young lb present the skeptical message more compellingly to the young. CSICOP will develop new materials— ranging from age-appropriate print publications to audio and video cassettes and instructional coursework. [ioals include enhanced understanding of science and improved critical thinking skills. NEWS AND COMMENT

arizona.edu/-jscotti/NOT.faked and Speaking to a reporter from the ITN origin. This effect, called anomalous dis­ pirlwww.lpl.arizona.edu/-scotti/NOT.fa Network in the United Kingdom, persion, had never been produced in a ked/FOX.html. Wiseman described the goals of the tests transparent medium [until Wang]. . . . he had set up: The light didn't speed up, but rather the —James V. Scotti "It's very difficult to tell ESP from peak of its pulse shifted, thereby chang­ James V. Scotti is an astronomer at the chance. I mean, we could do a hun­ ing its intensity." Lunar & Planetary Laboratory at the dred trials. They could all be hits. It In light of what the Wang experi­ University of Arizona in Tucson. could still be chance. But what we're ment did—and didn't—show, it's amus­ looking at is saying, 'Well look, if it ing to note the reaction of physicist Russ goes to 100 to one, if it goes to 200 to Humphreys, a young-Earth creationist Richard Wiseman one, that doesn't feel so much like from New Mexico. Humphreys wrote Tries to Tune into chance, that feels like something else on the new "speed of light" experiments Ever-Elusive ESP going on.' And that's really how we're for the Answers in Genesis web site measuring things." (www.answersingenesis.org), focusing On December 7, 2000, the "Museum of The results of the experiment—two on Wang's article in the journal Nature the Unknown" in London, England, hits out of ten—failed to find any evi­ (Vol. 406, pp. 277-279). Humphreys hosted "The World's Largest ESP dence of a psychic message transmission. wrote "The most puzzling thing to me is Experiment," the brainchild of Richard how the authors appear to deny the —Kevin Christopher Wiseman. The museum was the venue obvious implications of their data. They for a day-long series of ten half-hour imply that their results do not suggest ESP trials. Members of the public were Faster than Light? that information could be transmitted asked to psychically transmit a series of Well, Yes and No faster than the speed of light in vacuum, images they viewed on a projection and yet the nearly-raw data in their fig­ screen to a "receiver" who sat in the Perhaps you saw the headline from The ure 4 says [sic] just the opposite." "ganzfeld state" (a mode of sensory iso­ Sunday Times (London) on June 4, Humphreys goes on to say "The news­ lation) 200 yards away in a nearby 2000: "Eureka! Scientists break speed of papers actually got that point right. This building, 19 stories above street level. light." Or perhaps you caught mention raises the possibility of transmitting Wiseman was leading what CNN.com on radio or television about research by information 'backwards' in time. That Europe described as "a sort of brain-wave Dr. Lijun Wang (of the NEC Research would be astonishing!" In other words, blitzkrieg," getting crowds of "senders" Institute in New Jersey) involving viola­ creation physicist Humphreys, like the cooperate as psychic messengers. "By tions of one of the most important rules Times, completely misunderstood the boosting the signal, by having lots of of physics, namely that nothing can Wang research. Causality violation senders," Wiseman told a British ITN exceed the speed of light. Several other wouldn't bother Humphreys anyway; he television reporter, "you'd expect that "superluminal" experiments have made also writes ". . . for millennia the Bible maybe you can achieve spectacular the news this last year. What you won't has been transmitting detailed informa­ results and that's what we're trying to always hear is that the experiments don't tion to us about the future. I haven't find out today." disprove Einstein, and that causality has noticed the world collapsing into non- In another experiment that day, while not been violated. causal chaos quite yet!" thirty people sat in a room concentrating SaIon.com carried an excellent analy­ Recently, New Mexicans for Science on the projected images of gophers and sis by Chris Colin (8/3/2000), who got and Reason (NMSR) heard Dr. other assorted objects, a sequestered to the bottom of the Wang story. After Mohammed Mojahedi, of the University receiver relaxes in the "ganzfeld" state: she the initial excitement and confusion, it of New Mexico Physics Department, reclines with ping-pong ball hemispheres had turned out that, "Far from challeng­ speaking on his "superluminal" research. taped to her eyes, listening to white noise ing fundamental rules of nature, the Mojahedi works at the University of New and bathing in soft, red light. Her goal is team developed a method of manipulat­ Mexico's Center for High Tech Materials to empty her mind for ten minutes, then ing the wavelengths of a beam of light, (CHTM), and his group's fascinating focus on any psychic impressions that thereby altering the way it arrives at its experiment was reported in the October might be emanating from the people destination. Because short wavelengths 2000 issue of Physical Review E. In back at the room in the museum. become longer and long ones become Mojahedi's work, pulses have been mea­ If the battery of trials had yielded six shorter, the natural fanning outward sured as traveling faster than the speed of or more hits out often, Wiseman would that marks a light pulse is eliminated; light in vacuum, some 300 million conclude that the results hint at some consequently the shape of the pulse at meters per second. phenomenon other than chance. its destination appears the same as at its In Mojahedi's experiment, a beam of

12 May/June 2001 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER NEWS AND COMMENT

microwaves was split into two, and the ones Mojahedi's group measured. The Unfortunately, no. While the superlu­ path lengths for the two beams cali­ Sommerfeld forerunner signals arrive at minal pulse (B1) might arrive before its brated. Then, a special array of plastic the same time for both the normal path vacuum counterpart (B), it will never window panes was inserted into one (A, top) and "superluminal" path (A1, precede the arrival of its precursor (A1). of the beams. One might expect that bottom). The Brillouin forerunners That would be like the driver of the race the array of windows might slow down arrive next, with the superluminal path's car reaching a point before the leading the pulse, delaying the arrival of diat signal winning that race by a small edge of the car does. However, the work beam. But just the opposite happened. amount. The main envelope of the may hold promise for speeding up Mojahedi's group consistently measured superluminal pulse arrives earlier (B1) detection of pulses in applications such the window-path beam's main pulse as than the envelope for die normal pulse as computing. arriving half of a billionth of a second (B). And so the velocity of the forerun­ With other interesting experiments before the pulse from the vacuum-path ner pulse docs not exceed that of light, being conducted, such as slowing light beam; for the small distances involved but the "group velocity" (for the main down to a crawl inside a special on the lab table, this amounted to a pulse envelope) does. medium, the speed of light continues to speed of 2.38 times the speed of light! Mojahedi described how his work be an entertaining subject. Rumors of The effect is due to quantum tunnel­ challenges some of the earlier thinking the demise of Einstein and causality are ing effects in the window materials, in this field, such as comments by still a bit premature. dielectric photonic crystals. Mojahedi Borne and Wolfe, and Brillouin, that —David Thomas exploited a curious property called superluminal group velocities had no Evanescent Mode Propagation to physical significance or meaning. Does Dave Thomas, a physicist, is president of the achieve his surprising results. this work suggest that faster-than-light New Mexicans for Science and Reason and But how surprising were the results? communications might be possible? a SKEPTICAL INQUIRER consulting editor. • Was Einstein causality violated? Mojahedi said "No." The faster-than- light-speed ("superluminal") propaga­ tion was observed only for the main part B of the pulse signal. This is the large- A amplitude part of the pulse thai is easy to measure. It's much harder to measure ?l|Pl*v-— the very beginning of the signal—the : Sommerfeld ^Forerunner ?*»"„„ & Pulse "forerunner" or "precursor"—because Envelope those signals have very small amplitudes. Yet the forerunner signals are the ones that obey the cosmic speed limit of the universe, the speed of light. Mojahedi used an analogy involving race cars. The forerunner signals corre­ time spond to the sharp front edge of die race cars, while the main section of die race cars, containing the driver, correspond to the main pulse of die signals. In both die "normal" and "superluminal" paths, the forerunner signals arrive at the same A "Normal" time—both travel at the speed of light, no faster. (See points labeled A and A' on the diagrams.) However, the main B1 pulse is accelerated in the photonic crys­ tals, with the result that it arrives earlier in the superluminal path (going through A1 "Super- the special windows) tlian through the Luminal" vacuum path. (See points labeled B and B' on the diagrams.) The figure shows signals like die

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/June 2001 13 CONFERENCE REPORT

Gobbledygook and Charm: Still the Right Formula for Selling Snake Oil

MELISSA POLLAK

gook! I have a Ph.D. in quantum phlet contains the following quote: scientist, not an economist, physics, so I should know!" "Combining the wisdom of the ages should be writing this article. I with the inspiration of modern science A.sa y this because I didn't under­ Actually, the most lasting impression for new paths to health." stand a lot of what was said at a recent I have of the session was not what the seminar on alternative medicine spon­ speakers said, but the reaction of the The mover and shaker behind sored by the Washington Science Policy audience. I was astounded at how little "Friends of Health" appears to be Rustum Alliance. Although I have a master's the speakers were challenged during the Roy, the well-known scientist—and degree, I've had no medical training, question and answer period, especially highly excitable first speaker at the semi­ never taken a course in physics, and since the seminar was held in the audi­ nar. No one could accuse Professor Roy of high school chemistry was—well, let's torium of the American Association for lacking enthusiasm for the subject. Partly say, a long time ago. So I was pretty the Advancement of Science headquar­ in order to beat the clock (each speaker befuddled that afternoon, especially ters in Washington, D.C. was allotted only fifteen minutes), words during one speaker's presentation. He In attendance were well-educated spilled out of his mouth so fast that I had might as well have been speaking a for­ people, including many scientists, and it trouble keeping up with what he was say­ eign language; it wouldn't have made seemed that most of them were actually ing. According to my notes, these are any difference. It all sounded like gob­ buying what the speakers were saying. some of the points he made: bledygook to me. At one point, a woman stood up not • The U.S. ranks twelfth out of thir­ Later, at the reception, I met a young to ask a question but to deliver her own teen countries in terms of the quality of woman who works for the American message. Facing the audience, she health of its citizens. Therefore, health Physical Society. In confessing my described herself as a physician who had care is not reaching as many people as inability to understand what the one practiced medicine for twenty years. it should. speaker had said, I repeated my "gob­ Then, with fervency normally reserved • Millions of people are turning to bledygook" description. But rather than for the pulpit, she proceeded to berate alternative therapies, even though most enlightening me, as I had expected her her colleagues in the medical profession of these treatments are not being reim­ to do, she declared: "It was gobbledy- for unnecessarily prolonging the pain of bursed by health care plans. These peo­ their patients by failing to prescribe ple must know something. Millions of Melissa Pollak is a senior analyst at the alternative therapies for their ailments. people cannot be wrong! National Science Foundation where she's Also in the audience were a number • Friends of Health is not your typi­ currently in charge of NSF's Survey of of congressional staffers and a group of cal alternative medicine organization Public Attitudes Toward and Under­ individuals whose nametags read because it is "very data oriented." There standing of Science and Technology and an "Friends of Health." In fact, the names is an enormous wealth of scientific data author of the National Science Board report. of four of the five speakers on the pro­ supporting alternative therapies. These Science & Engineering Indicators. The gram appear on a brochure put out by data have been ignored, but people opinions, findings, and conclusions this new organization and made avail­ should look at them. The study of sci­ expressed in this article are those of the able at the seminar. All were listed as ence is full of examples in which uncon­ author and do not necessarily reflect the members of a "Science Advisory ventional theories have been repeatedly views of the National Science Foundation. Committee." The first page of the pam­ rejected by a mainstream scientific

14 May/June 2001 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER community only to eventually achieve lobbing a little undeserved criticism at certainly informative, it didn't provide acceptance at some later point in time. Heimlich's maneuver (it may cause vom­ a clue about the secret of his success as • We now have evidence that these iting), the medical profession has been an advocate for alternative medicine. I therapies work—"from machines," such slow to acknowledge the ineffectiveness didn't gain that insight until I had a as Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI). of mouth-to-mouth resuscitation in sav­ chance to chat with him during the William Tiller (also on the Friends of ing heart attack and drowning victims. reception. More about that later. Health Science Advisory Committee) Recent research has just brought this fact The last speaker was Addeane and others have conducted detailed to light. For drowning victims in particu­ Caelleigh. She was introduced not as a physics experiments, and we now have lar, there now seems to be a sound body scientist but as a social historian and the "hundreds of data points." Not only can MRI prove the effectiveness of acupunc­ ture, but MRI can also tell the "yin" A lot of highly intelligent people have people from the "yang" people. made many notable contributions in their fields of Hans-Peter Duerr, the next speaker, spoke gobbledygook. In addition, he used expertise. At the same time, I've discovered that a prop, a fancy pendulum, to illustrate sometimes there are chinks in those brilliant whatever it was he was trying to say. I did manage to jot down one quote: "Our minds—blind spots that defy explanation. rational thinking has natural limitations." During the reception, the young woman from the American Physical Society of evidence that mouth-to-mouth may editor of the journal Academic Medicine. informed me that Professor Duerr was a do more harm than good, and that the According to Caelleigh, the popularity of world-famous physicist, and that she and Heimlich maneuver should be used alternative medicine "is driven by medi­ other scientists were rather puzzled by his instead. Apparently, this conflict with cine as a social activity." In addition to involvement in alternative medicine. The some intransigent colleagues was enough describing this justification for the high fact that Duerr has a reputation as a bril­ to send Dr. Heimlich into the very recep­ level of interest in alternative medicine, liant scientist didn't surprise me. Over the tive arms of Friends of Health. she also brought up one point that none years, I've had the opportunity to observe Dr. Wayne Jonas, former Director of of the other speakers had mentioned: the a lot of highly intelligent people who have the National Institutes of Health Center high level of scientific illiteracy among made many notable contributions in their of Alternative and Complementary the general public. This is ironic in light fields of expertise. At the same time, I've Medicine, was the last scientist on the of the fact that, according to Dr. Roy, the discovered that sometimes there are panel. His presentation was mosdy visual best proof we have that alternative thera­ chinks in those brilliant minds—blind with slides showcasing lots of statistics pies work is the many millions of people spots that defy explanation. Duerr's extolling the popularity of alternative who are drawn to them. uncritical enthusiasm for alternative med­ medicine. Among his numbers were At the reception, I had the opportunity icine must fall into that category. those documenting how few physicians to chat with a number of people, most of If anyone seemed out of place on the recommend alternative therapies—and whom were strong advocates of alternative panel, it was the third speaker, Henry that the more popular the therapy among medicine, including two women who Heimlich. By far the most famous of the the general public (e.g., herbal remedies), work for science-related associations. After quartet, he's known not just in the scien­ the less likely it was to be prescribed. listening to them describe how they had tific community, but throughout the He cautioned the audience that the been helped by all sorts of alternative ther­ world. (Has anyone on this planet not appropriate term for the topic was apies, I couldn't resist trying to make a lit- heard of the "Heimlich maneuver"?) So "complementary" instead of alternative de joke by commenting that alternative what was Dr. Heimlich doing on the medicine, because most people—83 medicine for pets has reeendy gained pop­ panel? Well, like the others, he's got a percent—who use alternative therapies ularity. Much to my surprise, my little problem with the medical profession. also seek advice from their primary care remark was treated with die utmost in However, unlike the others, his com­ physicians. Most of these patients (72 seriousness. One of the women was only plaint seems to have merit. Apparently, percent), however, fail to tell their too happy to tell me that her dog's arthri­ until recently, the medical profession doctors about their use of alternative tis had been completely cured by an alter­ refused to recognize the superiority of the therapies. According to Dr. Jonas, this native practitioner. Heimlich maneuver over mouth-to- communication gap is a serious pro­ mouth resuscitation in emergency situa­ blem with public policy implications. GOBBLEDYGOOK AND CHARM tions other than choking. In addition to Although Dr. Jonas's presentation was Continued on page 19

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/lune 2001 15 White House Commission on Complementary and Alternative Medicine Is Biased

PAUL KURTZ therapies, in our view, have not been adequately tested. Too often the claims of their validity have been anecdotal The White House Commission on Complementary and or highly subjective, uncorroborated reports by practition­ Alternative Medicine policy was created by an executive ers and/or their patients, some of these based upon the order of President Clinton on March 7, 2000. This was in placebo effect. response to enormous political lobbying, especially by Surely, we cannot lump all CAM therapies together and Senators Orrin Hatch and Tom Harkin. The purpose of the make a blanket indictment. Each has to be examined objec­ Commission is to develop a set of legislative and administra­ tively and impartially. Scientific medicine admits that fallibil­ tive policy recommendations that will "maximize the deliv­ ity and skepticism are parts of its process of inquiry. On the ery of alternative medicine to the public." other hand, we should insist that the public be safeguarded The former president was to appoint nineteen commis­ against unproven cures, untested therapies, and quackery by sioners. It is the view of the editors of the Scientific Review practitioners and manufacturers out to make a profit. of Alternative Medicine (the only peer-reviewed skeptical journal in the field) that virtually all of the members of the 2) Should there be access to and delivery of CAM products Commission selected thus far are in favor of alternative med­ and practices? If so, why? If not why not? icine, and that the Commission is not fairly represented by I do not think that there should be universal access and skeptical medical scientists. Incidentally, it is unclear at this delivery of CAM products and nostrums. This will tend to time as to what the new Bush administration will do with weaken what is one of the finest health care systems in the the Commission. world. CAM could undermine the line between genuine sci­ The Commission has been holding open public forums ence and pseudoscience. Each claim to validity must be throughout the country. I was invited by the Commission to tested by impartial, neutral observers—not simply their present testimony before it arid I did so on behalf of CSICOP advocates. If a therapy proves to be effective, then it on December 4, 2000, in Washington, D.C. The following are becomes part of scientific medicine. It is vital, in our view, my written responses to questions provided to me beforehand. that this Commission represent not only proponents of CAM, but scientists and physicians who are skeptical of its claims. 1) Should Complementary Alternative Medicine (CAM) be integrated with conventional medicine and why or 3) If current CAM utilization trends continue, what con­ why not? sumer protection should be implemented? I do not think that it should be integrated. I deplore the CAM seems to be growing. I think the public should be efforts to do so. The term "conventional medicine" is a mis­ protected. The government has an obligation to act against nomer. What is labeled as "conventional" is modern scien­ spurious or fraudulent claims. The free market—in selling tific or evidence-based medicine. Many or most CAM thera­ adulterated goods and questionable services—needs to be pies on the other hand are conventional and ancient, such as monitored. The misuse of taxpayers funds needs to be safe­ traditional Chinese medicine, qigong, or spiritual importa­ guarded. The great issue is the health and welfare of the tions from India. American public. Government sponsorship of questionable Scientific medicine is a relatively recent development in CAM therapies would be a disservice to the public interest. human history, especially since the nineteenth century, when increased knowledge of physiology and human anatomy 4) What policy recommendations do you have for the was refined. There have been a number of brilliant Commission? researchers who have contributed to our understanding, I would strongly urge as a first step the repeal of the 1994 such as Claude Bernard, Louis Pasteur, Robert Koch and Dietary Supplement Health and Education Act, which freed Joseph Lister. Theories about the nature and transmission of herbal medicines and dietary supplements from regulation infectious diseases—such as diphtheria, tuberculosis, by the FDA. Prescription drugs are required to be tested. malaria, typhoid, tetanus, polio—and the development of There are no such safeguards for dietary supplements. There vaccines had important roles in immunization. Likewise are now some 20,000 such supplements—including herbal important were the advances in epidemiology, public health, and homeopathic remedies—on the market. Many of the and sanitation. In the twentieth century endocrinology manufacturers make false and misleading claims. Many have advanced—with the discovery of insulin, cortisone, and sex dangerous side effects. Some may have positive results. In hormones. In the field of nutrition, researchers discovered any case, the packages should be properly labeled—there the role of vitamins. There have been significant new diag­ should be "truth in labeling." Those medications deemed nostic tools, such as X-ray imagery, CAT scans, mammogra­ to have possible noxious side effects by misuse should phy, and sonograms, to mention only a few. The great strides require a prescription. in surgery have been impressive, including cardiology, neu­ Second, similar regulations should be enacted against rosurgery, and organ transplantation. The discovery of other false claims—such as quack cancer cures, crash diets. antibiotics has made enormous contributions to the cure of Chelation therapy, iridology, therapeutic touch, and mag­ infectious disease. We should add to this the discoveries of netic therapy. This is particularly important when patients DNA, biogenetic research, gene therapy, and other innova­ avoid scientific medicine and substitute alternative thera­ tions on the frontiers of research. All of these achievements pies, believing that since they are offered by the health have led to the reduction of infant mortality and the exten­ delivery system, they must be effective. There needs to be sion of life spans. Part of this process was the development, peer review, as in scientific medicine, not simply by the beginning in 1904, of rigorous standards of education in practitioners in a field, but by other objective and neutral medical schools. Thus we see the remarkable effectiveness of scientific reviewers. modern scientific medicine—all for the benefit of mankind. The key factor in evidence-based medicine is that any Paul Kurtz, Chairman, Committee for the Scientific new diagnostic techniques and therapies be submitted Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal; Publisher. The to rigorous, double-blind clinical tests. Unfortunately, CAM Scientific Review of Alternative Medicine.

16 May/June 2001 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER NOTES OF A FRINGE-WATCHER MARTIN GARDNER

Primal Scream: A Persistent New Age Therapy

lternative medicines and curi­ Institute in Los Angeles in 1970, where incidents which he or she suffered as a ous treatments for physical ills some two dozen staffers then practiced very young child start to emerge along Aare flourishing as never before primal therapy. Three years later he with memories of actual birth. When around the world. The same is true of began publishing The Journal of Primal these memories are recovered the ills alternative mental therapies. Every year Therapy and the monthly Primal begin to disappear, though it may take it seems as if new and outlandish forms Institute Newsletter. many sessions and much time and of psychiatry appear in books and arti­ The public first became aware of the money. Moreover, Janov claimed, one's cles, along with thousands of satisfied new therapy in 1970 when Janov pub­ aging process slows down—he once patients who provide glowing testimoni­ lished his first book. The Primal Scream. It likened his therapy to the Fountain of als about how completely they have became an instant best seller, and the Youth. Resistance to all diseases been "cured" by the new techniques. therapy became something of a fad increases. In brief, the patient starts to In this column I focus on one of the around the world, especially in California. lead a normal, healthy, happy life. Once once-popular New Age therapies, the A handsome Janov appeared on die Dick healed, Janov asserts, a patient will never so-called "primal scream" technique dis­ Cavett show. He was interviewed by need therapy again. covered and promoted by Dr. Arthur Vogue. John Lennon, Yoko Ono, actor The Primal Scream was followed by a Janov, a California psychologist. Born in James Earl Jones, and other Hollywood spate of popular books with such titles Los Angeles in 1924, Janov obtained his bigwigs praised primal therapy. Sweden as The Primal Revolution; The Anatomy doctorate in psychology in 1967 from aired a long documentary about it. of Mental Illness; Primal Man; The New Claremont College, in Claremont, The basis of primal therapy, which Consciousness (written with Michael California. During the second world came to Janov like a revelation from on Holden, M.D., men Janov's medical war he was a Navy signalman. In 1976 high, is easily capsuled. All neuroses, director); The Feeling Child, The New he divorced his first wife, Vivien France, psychoses, and psychosomatic ills derive Primal Scream; Prisoners of Pain; and who had helped pioneer his work. He from repressed memories of childhood Imprints: The Lifelong Effects of Birth later remarried. traumas, particularly the violent trauma Experiences. All diese books are now out Janov and Vivien founded the Primal of being born. This central role of die of print. birth trauma goes back to Otto Rank, a In 1972, when Simon and Schuster Martin Gardner has two new books of psychotic Vienna psychoanalyst who published The Primal Revolution, it was essays: Did Adam and Eve Have Navels? broke with Freud. Rank traced all neu­ an alternative selection of several book Discourses on Reflexology, Numerology, roses back to a painful birth. He even clubs. A full page ad in The New York Urine Therapy, and Other Dubious wrote a book titled The Trauma of Birth Times Book Review (November 19, Subjects (WW Norton, 2000), based on (English translation 1929), which he 1972) included a list of ailments primal his SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Notes of a Fringe- dedicated to Freud. therapy—and only primal therapy—can Watcher columns; and From the By a series of interrogations—the cure or alleviate: alcoholism, homosexu­ Wandering Jew to William F. Buckley details of which Janov has kept secret for ality, drug addiction, psychoses, para­ Jr.: On Science, Literature, and Religion fear of their being used by untrained noia, depression, and manic-depression. (Prometheus Books, 2000), a collection of therapists—a patient is slowly regressed In a similar ad for The New Primal his other essays and reviews. to childhood. Unconscious memories of Scream, in the same periodical (May,

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Mjy/lunr 2001 17 1991), the following ills, all helped or turned. Judges and attorneys have become and Richard Corriere. Its techniques cured by the therapy, are added to the aware of how easily such memories can be included ordering patients to strip and previous list: tension, stress, anxiety, fabricated, with the happy result that to endure beatings. The center closed in sleep disorders, high blood pressure, many therapists and quack psychiatrists 1980 after losing many lawsuits. Later it cancer, sex difficulties, obsessions, pho­ have lost cosdy lawsuits, and dozens of was roundly pummeled in such books as bias, ulcers, colitis, migraine, asthma, innocent adults had their convictions Therapy Gone Mad by Carol Lynn and arthritis. overturned after spending years in prison. Mithers (1994) and Insane Therapy Not only was Janov convinced that For details about this great psychi­ (1998) by sociologist Marybeth Ayella. no other form of mental therapy works, atric scandal you can consult the two An even uglier spinoff was the rise of "rebirthing therapy," a crazy New Age technique started in the 1970s by one There is not the slightest reliable evidence Leonard Orr. The therapy consists of that any adult brain harbors repressed wrapping a patient in blankets to simu­ late the mothers womb, then pushing memories of birth. pillows onto die patient's face to arouse feelings of labor contractions. but primal therapy must be administered chapters on it in my Weird Water and An elderly born-again Christian, Orr only by workers trained at his institute. Fuzzy Logic (1996), or such excellent lives in his birthplace, Walton, New York, Later he speculated that perhaps some­ books as Mark Pendergrast's Victims of where he runs a rebirthing training center day families would learn the technique. Memory: Sex Abuse Accusations and and edits its newsletter. He has written This could result in a world with less Shattered Lives (1995). The False some twenty books. They include injustice and no wars. "It would be," Memory Foundation is at 1955 Locust Rebirthing in the New Age (1977) and Janov is quoted in Contemporary Authors Street, Philadelphia, PA 19103-5766. The Healing Power of Birth and Rebirth (Volume 116), "the only hope if Janov is not particularly concerned (1994). His therapy is closely related to mankind is to survive." with memories of sexual abuse since any breathing exercises and what he calls the All mental ills, Janov is convinced, old kind of early childhood trauma will "power of fire." In a trip to India he met result from what he calls "primal pain," a do. Prior to primalizing, patients spend a number of yogis who claim to have suffering arising from repressed memo­ a week in a hotel room without radio, lived more dian 2,000 yean. One of ries of childhood traumas. Illness is a television, or anything to read. They are them, Yogi Babaji, Orr believes to be over "silent scream." When patients recover not allowed to sleep the night before 9,000 years old. You can read all about their lost memories of early traumas, their first session. In his section on pri­ him in Orr's 1992 book Babaji, The especially the trauma of birth, they often mal therapy Pendergrast quotes Janov as Angel of the Lord Somehow Orr manages writhe on the floor, sobbing, and scream­ saying, "The isolation and sleeplessness to combine his Biblical Christianity with ing with rage at whatever was done to are important techniques which often India's belief in reincarnation and karma. diem or at the violence of their birth. bring patients close to a Primal. Lack of In April 2000, in Evergreen, Such sessions are called "primals." sleep helps crumble defenses." Colorado, a social worker named The recovery process is called "primaliz- Of course there is not the slightest Connell Watkins and her three associ­ ing." Primals take place in soundproof reliable evidence that any adult brain har­ ates—none with any training in psychi­ rooms with padded floors and walls to bors repressed memories of birth. Nor, for atry—charged a Durham, North prevent patients from injuring them­ that matter, any memories of the first one Carolina, pediatric nurse $7,000 for two selves while writhing and screaming. or two years of life, or of pre-birth mem­ weeks of therapy on her adopted daugh­ The entire process is, of course, faster ories of life inside the womb as Janov also ter Candace Newmaker. The girl, 10, and cheaper than psychoanalysis, which believes—a belief he shares with L. Ron was said to be suffering from "attach­ can go on for years. Hubbard, Stanislav Grof, and others.1 ment disorder," characterized by her Janov was a pioneer practitioner of In a letter to the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER inability to form loving relationships. At what later came to be called the "false (Fall 1988) Janov canceled his subscrip­ the culmination of "attachment ther­ memory syndrome." During the 1980s tion and asked for a refund. He was furi­ apy" the child was wrapped in a flannel and 1990s hundreds of innocent parents ous because in the magazines Winter blanket and large pillows shoved against and teachers were falsely accused of sexual 1987-88 issue Barry Beyerstein, writing her face. molestation, frequendy of school children. on "The Brain and Consciousness," had Candace cried out repeatedly that These fake memories were implanted in called primal scream therapy "suspect." she couldn't breathe and was about to the patients mind by well-meaning but There have been several tragic spin­ vomit, but the therapists kept pushing self-deceived therapists. Thanks to the offs from primal therapy. In 1971 a the pillows and urging her to fight her valiant efforts of Pamela Freyd, who Center for Feeling Therapy made its way out of the "womb" through a started the False Memory Syndrome appearance in Los Angeles, founded by twisted part of the blanket. Candace Foundation in 1992, the tide has slowly two defectors from Janov, Joseph Hart soon stopped crying. A half-hour later

18 May/June 2001 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER the dierapists unwrapped the blanket. addiction and obsessions, sleep and eat­ you can check the center's Web site at Candace was lying in vomit, not breath­ ing disorders, die causes of sexual act www.primaltherapy.com. Janov's earlier ing. She died of asphyxiation the next out, and many more." Primal Institute is now run by his ex- day at a Denver hospital. Watkins and On January 2, 2001, E. Patrick wife Vivien. her colleague Julie Ponder were arrested Curry, an articulate consumer health and charged with child abuse resulting advocate in Pittsburgh, sent Paul Kurtz, Notes in death; their trial began in early April. founder and head of Prometheus, a 1. Grof is a Czechoslovakian-born psychiatrist, (For more on this case see "New Age strong letter protesting the book's publi­ 1960s LSD researcher, and paranormalist now liv­ ing in the United States. SUNY Press has pub­ 'Rebirthing' Treatment Kills Girl," SI cation. Long an admirer of Prometheus lished several of his controversial books. One of 24 [5] September/October 2000.) for its willingness to publish books Carl Sagan's rare lapses is his unfortunate chapter If you care to learn more about primal attacking pseudoscience—books odier on Grof in Broca's Brain In his 1993 book The Holotropic Mind, Grof therapy you can read Janov's books, and A publishers are reluctant to take—Curry credits LSD widi changing him from an atheist Scream Away from Happiness, by Daniel urged Kurtz to withdraw the book and into a mystic. He writes (page 18): "... we can Casriel (1972). For attacks on the uSerapy issue a mea culpa for the failure of reach tar back in time and witness sequences from the lives of our human and animal ancestors, as and its spinoffs see the chapters in Prometheus editors to recognize Janov's well as events that involved people from other his­ Margaret Thaler Singers Crazy Therapies book as bogus psychiatry.' torical periods and cultures with whom we have no genetic connection whatsoever. Through our (1996), R.D. Rosen's Psychobabble Curry cited an incredible passage on consciousnesses, we can transcend time and space, (1977), and Michael Rossman's New Age page 319 of The Biology of Love diat cross boundaries separating us from various ani­ Blues (1979). Rossman's chapter is tided should have been a tipoff to Prometheus mal species, experience processes in the botanical kingdom and in the inorganic world, and even "The I-Scream Man Cometh." editors. Janov reports diat a photograph explore mythological and other realities that we I close on a depressing note. In the of a primal, in which a patient is experi­ previously did not know existed." spring of 2000 Prometheus Books pub­ encing rebirth, shows the fingerprints of 2. Paul Kurtz responded to Curry, with a copy lished Janov's latest work, The Biology of the obstetrician miraculously appearing to me, on February 7. He noted that despite Prometheus review process, "We may sometimes Love. In an ad for the book on Janov's on die patient's legs! "The first time I saw err. We are not infallible." But he noted that Web site, Janov calls it "the most impor­ this," Janov writes, "I was as skeptical as 1 Prometheus has a long tradition of publishing unpopular books, and criticisms come from virtu­ tant book of the century." It concerns am sure many readers are now. But it hap­ ally every viewpoint. Kurtz said he appreciated such questions as, "What makes us pens and is not a chance occurrence." Curry's distress with Janov and said he himself was humans, the hormones of love, shaping If you can believe that, you can also dubious of "primal scream." He said Prometheus is still committed to a rationalist-sci­ personality in the womb, the nature of believe anything Janov says. To keep up entific agenda but contended that Curry's sug­ feeling, the power of love, die origin of with the doings of what he now calls his gested remedies could be considered suppression. 1 anxiety and depression, the source of Primal Center, in Venice, California, would consider them damage-control.

GOBBLEDYGOOK AND CHARM The last person I had an opportunity For example, I mentioned diat I was from page 15 to chat widi at the reception was Dr. reading Robert Park's recent book Voodoo Jonas himself. During this conversation, Science, and that it contained several But not everyone there was a firm it suddenly dawned on me why he made unfavorable references to Dr. Jonas. believer. A woman who works for AAAS such an effective spokesperson for alter­ Would he care to comment on what shared my views. She told me a story native medicine. He is the quintessential Professor Park had said about him? But about her father, a well-known physician itician. rather than answer the question, he who had passed away recendy. In going One of the long-standing problems responded by saying how impressed he through his belongings after his death with communicating science to the pub­ was diat Park has now become a "good from cancer, she was horrified by one dis­ lic is diat the scientific community has a skeptic." According to Dr. Jonas, Park covery. No, it wasn't pornography or any paucity of politicians, leaders who are so has gone from being a not-so-good skep­ other typical secret stash found after die polished and charming and charismatic tic to being a really good one. I got sim­ death of a loved one, but bottles and bot- that people are naturally drawn to what­ ilar non-answers to my odier questions. des of every kind of herbal remedy now ever it is they have to say. Their words All in all, the afternoon I spent at the on die market, thanks to passage of The don't need to be convincing, because it's seminar proved to be quite insightful, Dietary Supplement and Health dieir style and personality that do the although I realize diat my observation Education Act of 1994. I could tell that heavy lifting. Dr. Jonas fits this model of that people are easily deceived by a lot of she was still terribly upset by diis discov­ the ideal spokesperson. fancy words and a winning personality is ery, and although they were probably I managed to ask Dr. Jonas several really nodiing new. Alternative medicine wordi hundreds of dollars, she felt diat questions, and I couldn't help noticing certainly isn't die first kind of pseudo- the right thing to do was to throw them how skillfully he managed to dodge each science to be sold in that way, and it away, which she did. one. Talk about a good politician! won't be the last.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/June 2001 19 INVESTIGATIVE FILES JOE NICKELL

In Search of Fisher's Ghost

uring an investigative tour the disappearance of Frederick Fisher. eerily and dripping blood from a gashed Down Under, I was able to Fisher was a "ticket-of-leave man"—a head. Moaning, the phantasm "pointed Dexamine the persistent legend paroled convict—who had acquired a bony finger in the direction of the of "Australia's most famous ghost" land at Campbelltown where he built a creek that flowed behind Fisher's farm" (Davis 1998). 1 was generously assisted shack. Unfortunately he also caroused (Davis 1998). Thus prompted to search by magic historian Peter Rodgers with there with itinerants and other ticket- the area, police soon dug up Fisher's whom 1 shared several other adventures of-leave men including his neighbor corpse. Worrell was convicted of the (Nickell 2001). and best friend George Worrell (or murder and reportedly confessed just One writer has commented, "It is a Worrall). When Fisher found himself in before his hanging (Fowler 1991, 13). mystery why some ghost stories catch debt and facing possible arrest, he trust­ Such are the main outlines of the the public's imagination and survive ingly signed his property over to story. Queensland writer Richard Davis while others, often more shocking and Worrell—either to conceal or to protect observes in his book The Ghost Guide to more credible, are forgotten" (Davis his assets. But when Fisher was released Australia (1998), "From the beginning 1998). He cites the story about from prison after six months and distortions occurred—almost every Frederick Fisher, which has been returned to his farm, he found Worrell aspect of the story was changed and related in countless newspaper articles, had been claiming it as his own. romanticised so that truth became indis­ as well as poems, songs, books, plays, After Fisher disappeared, Worrell tinguishable from fiction." Indeed, the an opera, and other venues (Davis resumed possession of the property, version published by Charles Dickens 1998) and provided the inspiration for telling anyone who inquired that his ("Fisher's Ghost" 1853) contains a movie (Fowler 1991). It once friend had returned to England in numerous altered details—"Penrith" for attracted the attention of notables like search of his estranged family. The fact Campbelltown, "Smith" for Worrell, Charles Dickens, who published a ver­ that Worrell wore Fishers clothes and— etc.-—that link it to a fictionalized sion in his magazine Household Words, to prove his ownership of one of Fisher's account written by Australian writer and entertainer John Pepper, who used horses—offered a crudely forged receipt John Lang (n.d.). it as the subject of one of his "Pepper's soon raised suspicions. Those promoting the tale cite an ghost" stage illusions in Sydney ca. On September 23 the Colonial alleged deathbed statement by the per­ 1879 ("Illusionist" 1984). Today, Secretary's Office offered a reward for cipient James Farley (or "John Hurley" Fisher's ghost remains the subject of an "the discovery of the body" of Frederick in the earliest versions [Cranfield annual festival. All this—even though Fisher, or a lesser reward for proof that 1963]). Queried about the matter on his die ghost reportedly appeared "to just he had "quitted the Colony" deathbed, Farley supposedly raised him­ one man on one occasion" long ago ("Supposed Murder" 1826). Subse­ self on an elbow and told his friend: (Davis 1998). quently, a local man named James "I'm a dying man, Mr. Chisholm. I'll The story began June 17, 1826, with Farley reportedly had an encounter speak only the truth. I saw that ghost as with the ghost of Fisher. Farley was plainly as I see you now" (Davis 1998; Joe Nickel/ is CSICOP's Senior Research walking near Fisher's property one Cusack 1967, 3). Alas, the story is not Fellow and author of numerous investiga­ night and saw an apparition of the miss­ only unverified but has a suspiciously tive books. ing man sitting on a fence, glowing literary quality about it.

20 May/June 2001 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER In fairness it should be acknowledged Campbelltown. It is important to note party had uncovered the "left hand of a that debunkers have offered their share diat diis was a creative production. Not man lying on his side." The coroner was of doubtful claims as well. One pur­ only was Hills' Life a literary paper and the summoned, and (the next morning) the ported explanation for the ghost was narrative written in verse (thus inviting body of Fisher was exhumed and exam­ given by a seventy-three-year-old barber. "poetic license"), but die story was actually ined, whereupon "several fractures were He said he heard it from his grandfather fictionalized. For example, Fred Fisher found in the head" ("Supreme" 1827). who in turn allegedly learned it from an became a rich ex-con via named "Fredro" However the story of Fisher's ghost ex-convict who had secretly witnessed and the murderer Worrell was represented was actually launched—and it may the murder and burial. Wanting to as "Wurlow" (Fowler 1991, 15). have originated with the previously expose the trudi but afraid of being To assess the credibility of the mentioned anonymous poem in implicated, he hit on a plan. He fash­ Fisher's ghost story, it is necessary to go 1832—the legend has persisted. In the ioned a pair of cloaks—one white, back in time, as it were, to the February narrative the phantom behaves as one anorJier black—wearing the first at night 2, 1827, proceedings of die Supreme of those purposeful spirits of yore to simulate the ghost. When some trav­ Criminal Court ("Supreme" 1827). As who sometimes "advised where their eler happened by, he moaned bodies might be discovered" and pointed to the burial site (Finucane 1984, 194). in die swamp. Then readying Folklorists recognize such the black cloak as he walked tales as types of supernatural toward that spot, he would legends—that is, "supposedly suddenly pull it over him factual accounts of occur­ so that "to the terrified rences and experiences which onlooker it seemed that seem to validate superstitions" the ghost had suddenly disap­ (Brunvand 1978). peared." Supposedly this re­ Evidence of folklore in peated ruse brought die progress is quite evident. desired result and the corpse Numerous variations in the was searched for and discov­ tale (apart from the fictional­ ered—believe it or not! izing process) are suggestive of ("Ghost" 1955) oral transmission. Consider a Another hand-me-down specific example. Since at least tale was related by a seventy- the 1950s lighthearted vigils An artist's impression of the appearance of Fisher's Ghost beckoning four-ycar-old resident. He ident named Farley, in 1826. for the ghost have been held, said diat Farley simply "saw a widi crowds typically gather­ man whom he took to be Fisher (but it others have previously noted (e.g., ing at midnight on June 17. The chosen was not Fisher) sirring on die rail of die Cranfield 1963), the trial records make site is the bridge across Fisher's Ghost bridge." When the man "dropped from absolutely no mention of a ghost. In Creek because, according to one the rail of die bridge apparendy into die addition to this negative evidence, I was account, "it was on die rail of the bridge weeds" and so seemed to vanish, "Farley struck by the positive evidence in the ... that Fisher's Ghost was always seen" thought it must have been a ghost on proceedings that Fisher's missing body ("Fisher's Ghost" 1957). But when Peter account of the sudden disappearance" had actually been located in a rational Rodgers and I made our pilgrimage to (Lee 1963). While such an incident rather than supernatural manner. the spot, locals told us (and other could happen, diere is no good evidence Constable George Looland testified sources confirmed) that the original that it did. that, on the previous October 20, blood bridge was not in precisely the same Not surprisingly, diose inclined to dis­ found on several fence rails at the corner place. More significantly, the earliest miss ghost stories have suggested the tale of Fisher's paddock led him to search the accounts of the story have the ghost sit­ was simply a journalistic invention. One area. He was assisted by two aboriginal ting on the rail of z fence. With that sim­ writer has stated that "there can be litde trackers who soon reported traces they ple transformation of a motif {as folk­ doubt diat it was a hoax first published by thought was "the fat of a white man" lorists term a narrative element)—from a Sydney magazine" (Cranfield 1963). In (presumably human tissue) floating on fence rail to bridge rail—the site of the fact, however, that account—in die March the creek. Proceeding on, they came to a purported apparition also became 1, 1836, Teggs Monthly—was preceded by spot (apparently identified by a distur­ translocated. Nevertheless, "ghost" an anonymous poem published years ear­ bance of the marshy area) which they sightings have been reported there, one lier (September 1832) in Hill's Life in New probed with an iron rod. One of the of the most noteworthy of which South Wales. Tided "The Spirit of die trackers "called out that there was some­ Creek," it bore a prefatory note diat it was thing there," and a spade was procured IN SEARCH OF FISHER'S GHOST based on die murder of "poor F*****" at to excavate die site. Soon the search Continued on page 66

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/June 2001 21 The Shrinking Filedrawer On the Validity of Statistical Mem-analyses in Parapsychology

It may be easier to explain parapsychological experiments on the basis of chance than has been previously thought.

DOUGLAS M. STOKES

here are 86,493,225 ways to pull 12 rabbits out of a hat containing 30 rabbits. This and similar facts Thave major implications for the validity of the statis­ tical meta-analyses that form much of the present case for the existence of such parapsychological phenomena as ESP and psychokinesis. The above factoid is just one example of the combinator­ ial explosion, or the counterintuitively large number of ways that one may select k objects from a set of n objects. For instance, there are more than 635 billion 13-card bridge hands that can be dealt from a 52-card deck. My attention was drawn to the implications of the com­ binatorial explosion for parapsychology as I read a recent

22 May/June 2001 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER article in the Journal of the Society for Psychical Research describ­ number (the number of molecules in a mole). Thus, if the 12 ing an ESP study conducted by Alan Vaughn and Jack Houck subjects with the best scores were to submit their data, one (Vaughn and Houck 2000). Vaughn and Houck's experimen­ might expect the odds against chance to be more than 10'' to tal data consisted of the ESP-gucssing results sent to them by 1, even in the absence of psi. twelve subjects who had used their newly developed intuition- Even if only 17 potential subjects existed, there would be training software. Vaughn and Houck state that the probabil­ 6,188 possible sets of 12 subjects that may be chosen from a ity that the level of success achieved by these subjects could set of 17 subjects. Thus, I initially thought that this number of have occurred through plain luck (i.e., in the absence of ESP) potential subjects would suffice to explain Vaughn and is equal to .00036. As this probability is very small, the authors Houck's results, in that if only the 12 subjects with the best conclude that their experiment provides statistically significant scores were to submit their results, one would expect results evidence of an ESP effect. that would occur only once in 6,188 times. Thus, it seemed The twelve subjects who voluntarily contributed data to that one only had to assume that there were five subjects who Vaughn and Houck's study were self-selected from a group of took part in the guessing but did not send in their results in subjects of unknown size who also participated in the experi­ order to wipe out the evidence for ESP. ment, but whose results were never recorded because they were never sent in. As the subjects knew their ESP scores before sending them in, it might reasonably be expected that only those subjects who were excited by the high scores they had attained would submit their results. Thus, it is possible that the entire group of subjects actually scored at chance, and that there would be no evidence for ESP if all the scores were exam­ ined rather than only the scores of the twelve subjects who chose to mail their results to Vaughn and Houck. The odds against the results of the twelve subjects being due to chance are 2,778 to 1 according to Vaughn and Houck's sta­ tistical analysis. They argue that, for these results to be ascribed to data selection, the larger group of subjects would have had to consist of 33,333 subjects. (This number is obtained by multiplying 12 by 2,778, the deficiency of 3 subjects being due to rounding error). They further state that they have sold fewer than 1,000 copies of their software, thus implying that die larger group of subjects could have consisted of at most 1,000 subjects. As someone who has taught statistics for over twenty years, I found Vaughn and Houck's esti­ mate to be suspiciously high. It is true diat 33,333 subjects can be divided into 2,778 (actually 2,777.75) disjoint (i.e., nonoverlapping) sets of 12 subjects. But this is not the issue. The issue is rather how many potential sets of 12 subjects could have been chosen from a population of 33,333 potential subjects. The answer is a stag­ gering 3.92 x 1041 sets. This number is computed from the familiar combinatorial formula 033333,12) = 33,333!/(12! x 33,321!). Even if one assumes diat only 500 potential subjects existed, the number of possible sets of 12 subjects that may be chosen is 4.46 * 10:\ nearly Avogadro's

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Miy/June 2001 23 sets of 12 subjects that can be chosen from a set of 51. This seemed like overkill. A Glossary of Statistical Terms Then I realized what was wrong with statistical meta­ Meta-analysis: The statistical analysis of a group of analysis as it is traditionally used in parapsychological experiments to determine the overall statistical sig­ research. It assumes that the results of the unselected sub­ nificance of a reported effect. Meta-analysis may also jects or studies are at chance. However, suppose that a large be used to evaluate the overall size of an effect across number of experiments are being conducted and only those experiments and to determine the influence of mod­ erator variables on the reported effect. with the highest scores are being reported or published. In that case, one would expect that the remaining scores would nl: "n factorial." For a positive integer n, n< repre­ sents the product of all the positive integers up to average below chance, rather than at chance as is assumed in and including n. For instance, 5! = 5x4:<3*2«1 = 120. the usual statistical meta-analysis procedures employed by C(n,k): The number of ways that a set of k objects can parapsychologists. be chosen from a set of n objects. C(n,k) = n\ I (k\ x (n I therefore performed ten computer simulations in which I - k)<). For instance, the number of ways that two generated random data for 30 subjects and then analyzed only objects can be chosen from a set of five objects is C(5,2) = 5! / (2! • 3!) = 120 / (2-6) = 10. the 12 highest scores. In every case, the results were statistically significant at the .01 level, and in four out of the ten cases the Statistical significance: In the present context, the probability that the results of an ESP experiment or results were even more significant than those reported by series of experiments would occur by chance. For Vaughn and Houck. Thus, one does not have to assume that instance, if the results of an ESP experiment are sig­ there must be 33,321 additional subjects to explain Vaughn nificant at the .01 level, then there is less than a 1% chance that an ESP effect of the observed size or and Houck's results, as those authors contend, nor must there larger would have occurred by chance. Generally, an be 39 additional subjects as die traditional meta-analysis in ESP effect would not be regarded as statistically sig­ parapsychology would indicate. There only have to be 18 sub­ nificant if it did not reach the .05 level of significance, as in that case there would be a greater than 5% jects who took part in the experiment but did not send in dieir probability that such an effect could occur through scores in order to explain Vaughn and Houck's results. It does random fluctuations (i.e., in the absence of ESP). not seem at all implausible that there might be this many such unrecorded subjects. Filedrawer size: The number of unpublished experi­ ments that would need to be assumed to exist in It is not surprising that only 18 additional subjects are order to explain away a significant effect found by required in order to explain Houck and Vaughn's results on the meta-analysis as being due to data selection (e.g., the basis of data selection. After all, there are more than tendency not to report or publish experiments that 86,493,225 different sets of 12 subjects that can be chosen do not demonstrate the effect). from an initial set of 30 subjects, just as there are that many —Douglas M. Stokes ways of pulling 12 rabbits out of the overpopulated hat described earlier. With over 86 million sets of subjects to chose from, it is not surprising diat the set of subjects with the high­ Analyzing Subjects Versus Scores est scores would have statistically significant results, even in However, I soon realized that the statistical tests were directed the absence of ESP. at the improbability of the psi scores, not of the sample of subjects. My next step was therefore to conduct a standard Ganzfeld Results Re-analyzed "filedrawer" analysis of the kind that is often used in evaluat­ The combinatorial explosion has major implications for the ing the statistical significance of psi research. The filedrawer validity of traditional statistical meta-analyses in parapsychol­ analysis is directed at determining how many additional sub­ ogy. A considerable portion of die existing evidence for psi jects (or experiments) with scores averaging exactly at chance phenomena such as ESP, precognition, and psychokinesis is would need to be assumed to exist in order to wipe out the based on the relatively young science of statistical meta­ statistical significance of a parapsychological study (or series analysis. To give a (more or less randomly chosen) example of of experiments). In the case of Vaughn and Houck's results, how statistical meta-analysis usually works, let us consider the filedrawer analysis indicated that 39 such additional sub­ Charles Honorton's meta-analysis of a series of twenty-eight jects would be required. But even this number seemed suspi­ ESP experiments that were conducted using ganzfeld stimula­ ciously high to me. After all, there are more than 158 billion tion (Honorton 1985). Honorton's meta-analysis was per­ formed in response to CSICOP fellow Ray Hyman's criticisms Douglas M. Stokes is a well-known internal critic of research of ganzfeld research. methodology in parapsychology. He was one of the contributors to (The ganzfeld, for SKEPTICAL INQUIRER readers who may The Skeptic's Handbook of Parapsychology, and a summary of be unfamiliar with die term, is a homogenous visual field, his work may be found in his book The Nature of Mind, pub­ which is often produced by shining red light on ping pong ball lished by McFarland in 1997. He is presently a management con­ halves strapped over a subject's eyes. While under the ganzfeld sultant specializing in statistical analysis with the firm of stimulation, die subjects attempt to use their psychic powers Sullivan, Cotter, and Associates, Inc. in Detroit. to describe a picture or movie being viewed by a sender or

24 May/June 2001 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER being shown on a computer screen in a distant room.) tcmaining experiments to average below chance, rather than at Based on the meta-analysis, Honorton concluded that the chance as assumed in the usual filedrawer analysis. This would aggregated results of the 28 ganzfeld experiments were statisti­ substantially lower the number of unpublished studies that cally significant, with odds of over a billion to one against their would need to be assumed. occurrence by chance. Computer simulation indicates that the level of statistical As discussed above, a standard practice in statistical meta­ significance found by Honorton is quite frequently attained analysis, at least as practiced in parapsychology, is to compute when one analyzes only the 28 experiments with the best out­ the size of the "filedrawer." The filcdrawer is the number of comes out of a set of 90 experiments with randomly generated unpublished experiments with null results that would have to data. Thus, the size of the filcdrawer needed to explain the be assumed to exist in order to explain away the evidence for results of these 28 ganzfeld experiments appears to be closer psi provided by these 28 experiments as being caused by data to 62 unpublished studies than to the estimate of 423 selection. (Data selection in this case consists of the tendency obtained by Honorton using the traditional filedrawer analy­ of parapsychological researchers to publish successful psi sis. This is perhaps not so startling when one considers the experiments and not to publish experiments that fail to obtain fact that there are 1.55 * 10" ways to choose a set of 28 exper­ evidence of psi.) iments from a population of 90 experiments. With this many Honorton conducted the standard filedrawer analysis and options, it is not surprising that one can find a set of 28 concluded that there would have to be 423 unreported studies experiments with odds against chance of a mere billion to averaging null results in order to attribute the overall effect one. While it may be ludicrous to suppose that there are 423 found in the 28 experiments in his sample as being due to data unpublished experiments, it is not at all ludicrous to suppose selection. Surely, the argument goes, there cannot be this many that there might be 62. Now we are talking about only a lit­ unpublished studies in view of the small size of the ganzfeld tle over two unpublished studies for each study that was pub­ research communiry in parapsychology and the difficulty and lished, rather than fifteen. Surely it is not beyond the realm of expense of conducting such research. After all, one is talking possibility that only one-third of the ganzfeld studies con­ about more than fifteen unpublished studies for each study ducted are eventually published. that was published. Statistical meta-analysis forms a large part of the founda­ (As an aside, it should be noted that the filedrawer analysis tion for the scientific case for psi phenomena such as ESP and is primarily directed at ruling out chance coincidence as an psychokinesis. The foundation may be less solid than it explanation of the results. The meta-analysis does not exclude appears. the possibility that the significant results could be due to fraud or methodological flaws.) References Again, however, the standard filedrawer analysis may be Honorton, C. 1985. Meta-analysis of psi ganzfeld research: A response to Hyman. Journal of Parapsychology, 49: 51-91. quite flawed. As discussed above, if only the best results arc Vaughn. A. and J. Houck. 2000. Intuition-training software: A second train­ selected for publication, one might expect the results of the ing study. Journal of the Society for Psychical Research, 64: 177-184.

SISYF0S - Czech Skeptics Club and the ECS0 - European Council of Special Organisations

Invite you to the 10th European Skeptics Congress

September 7-9,2001 • Praha, Czech Republic

The Congress will be held in the center of Prague in the main building of the Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic on Narodni street, close to the National Theatre. The program will include a sightseeing tour of Prague and an outdoor dinner.

The program of the congress will be divided into three thematic areas: 1. Paranormal Scene in Europe — Comparison between Post-Communist and Western Countries 2. Alternative Medicine 3. Miscellaneous (astrology, genetic engineering, climate changes, UFOIogy, religious sects, anthroposophy. postmodern philosophy, creationism, pseudoscience in psychology etc.) For registration and further information visit the official Web site of the Congress: http://www.fi.muni.cz/sisfos/10esc or contact ICARIS Ltd., Conference Management — Phone: +420.2.684 43 04. Fax: +420.2.684 08 17, E-mail: [email protected] For program matters contact: Kamil Galuscak [email protected]

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/June 2001 25 The Pokemon Panic of 1997

In 1997, an episode of the cartoon Pokemon allegedly induced seizures and other ailments in thousands of Japanese children. Though popularly attributed to photosensitive epilepsy, the episode has many of the hallmarks of mass hysteria.

BENJAMIN RADFORD

okemon is everywhere; more than a game, more than a movie, even more than a merchandising juggernaut, Pit is a phenomenon. It has spawned countless video games, comic books, Web sites, video tapes, magazines, clubs, music CDs, books, trading cards, three films, and, of course, an animated television series. It became such a cul­ tural phenomenon that Time magazine featured Pokemon on the cover of its November 22, 1999, issue. For kids it's an engaging pastime; for Nintendo, it's a multibillion-dollar moneymaker, possibly the largest mar­ keting effort in the history of toys. (The theme song's refrain contains a catchy ode to merchandising, "Gotta catch 'em all!") Pokemon creator Satoshi Tajiri spent six years

26 May/June 2001 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER developing die game and world of Pokemon. Pokemon (a found that 50,714 students, or 55 percent of the whole, shortening of "Pocket Monsters," from the original Japanese watched the episode ( Yomiuri Shimbun 1997c). name Poketto Monsuta) began as a video game for the hand­ At about 6:51, the flashing lights filled the screens. By 7:30, held Nintendo Game Boy system. according to the Fire-Defense agency, 618 children had been The television series centers on young boys and girls who taken to hospitals complaining of various symptoms. wander the world of Pokemon looking for small creatures News of the attacks shot through Japan, and it was the sub­ (called Pokemon) to capture, befriend, and train for battle ject of media reports later that evening. During the coverage, against other trainers (and their Pokemon) in the Pokemon several stations replayed the flashing sequence, whereupon League. The ultimate goal is for the kids to collect one of every even more children fell ill and sought medical attention. The species and become Pokemon number affected by this "sec­ Masters. There are currently S ond wave" is unknown. more than 150 different % Doctors said that child­ Pokemon (with more on the - ren "went into a trance­ way), and each creature has % like state, similar to hypnosis, special powers and individual = complaining of shortness of personalities. The most popu- » breath, nausea, and bad vision lar Pokemon, Pikachu, looks £ ..." (Snyder 1997). According something like a yellow rat o" to the Yomiuri Shimbun news­ with a lightning-bolt tail and = paper, "Victim's families re­ has the ability to shock its j° ported that children passed out opponents with electricity. £ during the broadcast, went into Although it is largely for- * convulsions, and vomited" gotten and rarely mentioned = (Yomiuri Shimbun 1997b). in current news accounts of j, Yet another account gives a "Pokemania," Pokemon wasn't 3 slighdy different set of ail­ always the benign cartoon ments: "Most children report­ whose worst threat was empty­ edly said they felt sick and had ing bank accounts. In vision problems . . ."(Next December 1997, up to 12,000 generation.com 1997). Japanese children reported ill­ The victims themselves nesses ranging from nausea to described their attacks thusly: seizures after watching an Ten-year-old Takuya Sato said episode of Pokemon. "Toward the end of the pro­ gram there was an explosion, The Episode and the and I had to close my eyes Attacks because of an enormous yel­ On Tuesday night, December low light like a camera flash" 16, 1997, Pokemon episode number 38, Dennou Senshi (MSNBC 1997); a fifteen-year-old girl from Nagoya reported, Porigon (Computer Warrior Polygon) aired in Japan at 6:30. "As I was watching blue and red lights flashing on the screen, The program, broadcast over thirty-seven TV stations, was I felt my body becoming tense. I do not remember what hap­ already very popular in Japan, and held the highest ratings pened afterward" (Asahi Shimbun 1997a). for its time slot. Information regarding exactly how many children became In the episode, Pikachu and its human friends Satoshi, sick (and when) and how many were taken to hospitals is Kasumi, and Takeshi, have an adventure that leads inside a piecemeal and at times contradictory, but, as with many computer. About twenty minutes into the program, the gang aspects of diis case, specific figures are known for certain areas. encounters a fighter named Polygon. A battle ensues, during One hospital in western Tokyo started to receive children which Pikachu uses his electricity powers to stop a "virus shortly after 7 P.M. A Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper story states bomb." The animators depict Pikachu's electric attack with a that "A total of six children aged between 9 and 15 were taken quick series of flashing lights. to the hospital Tuesday night. . . . After treatment there, all six In all, millions watched the program. In one section of returned home before midnight, a hospital employee said" Japan, Aichi Prefecture, an estimated 70 percent of the 24,000 (Yomiuri Shimbun 1997d). elementary school students and 35 percent of the 13,000 Although many news accounts simply stale that around junior high school students watched the program, for a total 12,000 children were sickened and 700 had seizures and/or of more than 21,000 in Aichi alone (Japan Times 1997). In were hospitalized, the truth is somewhat more complex. Tokyo, the local board of education investigated all public kindergartens, primary and middle schools in the area and Benjamin Radford is managing editor of the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/June 2001 27 The Aftermath Medical College, confirmed that optical stimulation can pro­ The story of thousands of children made sick by their favorite duce some of the symptoms found in the Poktmon victims cartoon raced through Japan. The following day TV Tokyo (Sullivan 1997). issued an apology, suspended the program, and said it would In 1994, British commercial television ads and programs investigate the cause of the seizures. Officers from Atago were limited to a rate of three flashes per second. The limit fol­ Police Station, acting on orders from the National Police lowed a 1993 incident in which an ad for noodles featuring Agency, questioned the program's producers about the car­ fast-moving graphics and bright flashes sparked three seizures. toon's contents and production process. The Health and In 1991, an American woman named Dianne Neale suf­ Welfare Ministry held an emergency meeting, discussing the fered seizures from hearing Entertainment Tonight co-host Mary case with experts and gathering information from hospitals. Han's eerily perky voice. Her doctors said Hart's electronically Video retailers across the country pulled the series from their transmitted voice triggered Neale's epilepsy by creating abnor­ rental shelves. mal electrical charges in her Outraged mothers accused brain (MSNBC 1997). TV Tokyo of ignoring their After several teens suffered children's health in the race for seizures while playing Nintendo ratings, while other parents video games, the company called for the implementation began including warning labels of an electronic screening on much of its software (see fig­ device similar to the American ure 1). The notice told users V-chip that would block that the games' graphics and intense animation. Even Prime animation could cause a shigeki, Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto a strong stimulation resulting in weighed in, with a comment of unconsciousness or seizures. dubious relevance: "Rays and In the Pokemon case, though, lasers have been considered for there appeared to be few leads to use as weapons. Their effects go on. Although the bright have not been fully deter­ flashes seemed to be the likely mined." Although a spokes­ EPILEPSY WARNING culprit, the flashes had been IAWAWWNBI used hundreds of times before man from Nintendo rushed to mm rm nonet B&OHE YOU OK YOUR CMJ> USE AMY VDEO sum without incident. The tech­ explain that the only link mm a have momentary fen of crjneooueness mm vraeing CM* ua ol seermo IgMs or between its game and the car­ patterns rial M crjmmorty pajajej m our daer enWonrrert Theee persona may arperlenco seuyres nique, called paka-paka, uses •Me attkB some k«s ol taarmon pcwes or playing nh HUH games **fln who Mttal toon was the characters, the ittdanypfaviouasaiajaiiTiaynnria^alawhawanuBlalailadapltaptccondaon different-colored lights flashing n you or anyone n your tarray hat eapenencad symptoms Imked to an er/Jepec conrjreon (e.g. a company's shares dropped »nM9lmtimmwm^i^mMMM^tmM%'^^KtmMim%9wmm^'mM alternately to create tension. It is nearly five percent on the ropenerce any of tie toeOMno. frymprom* riuness. seared Mson. eye or muede twrtdang. common in anime, the distinc­ •rclunavy movemarM. toe* ol arras errata, rjaomntaton, or oormiaora. DISCONTINUE USE Tokyo stock market. KaHEOUTELY and omul your phyaoan tive Japanese animation tech­ FOUOW THESE PRECAUTIONS WHENEVER USING VIDEO GAMES. nique used in Pokemon (and TV Tokyo put warning • When Kjftg your NES*. Super NES* or NrtanSo* 64 do not • or stand too done to He tatemion screen Ptty as tar tack trom the screen as possible many other popular cartoons, labels on all future and past • Payvidrjooarrirrtonlhesmalr^avsrlatilelolevatonmeen Pokemon episodes. Despite the • Do not play 4 you are bred or need steep such as Voltron, Sailor Moon, • Always ptay In a era! I room scare, both kids and adults • Be aura to take a 10 to 15 msiuta break every hour anas puymg. and Speed Racer). soon missed Poktmon. It was REPETITIVE STRAIN WWWWfl There was apparently very back on the air by April, along lAWARNJNg) little difference between ep­ with the new release of spring Some people may rjxpenenca tafcpue or drscorrton after ptayng for a long tms. Rajajajaaj ol how isode 38 and the other you teal, you thoukj ALWAYS take a 101015 real* break svery hour .Me pByng « your hands or shows, and promptly climbed arms become Bred or unrxrrSortabla ate* purring stop and mel t you cononus to eapaitanca Pokemon episodes. The best loraness or rJecarrrJorl during or alter play. Men to Ihe srgrrals your body a pwrng you Sloppkrymg up to third in the ratings. and consuR a doctor Faeum to do so coJd rasuR m king term mrury guess was that the sheer num­ I your hands, aflat or arms have bean Injured or strained in otter adharMuasofyaursyssirnoould sggravrdetheconrjten Betas payrg consuk a dodor ber of flashes or length of the Searching for Answers segment (reported as five to Several reasons were put forth Fi9"fe I. Epilepsy warning on video game booklet. eight seconds, depending on to explain why the episode the source) made the differ­ might have caused the problems it did. That bright flashing ence. Producer Takemoto Mori had used virtually identical lights can trigger seizures in people with photosensitive paka-paka in most of the previous episodes, with slight varia­ epilepsy (PSE) is fairly well established. There seems little tions in color and background combinations. "During edit­ doubt that at least some children did in fact experience ing, that particular portion didn't call my attention or bother seizures and other afflictions from watching Pokemon. me," he said. All Pokemon episodes were pre-screened before Researchers believe the technique of flashing lights caused airing, and no problems were reported. the problem, perhaps made worse by the red/blue color pat­ Despite all the furor and theories, a clear genesis of the tern. And Dr. Akinori Hoshika, a neurologist at Tokyo Pokemon panic was elusive. After four months Nintendo

28 May/June 2001 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER announced that it could find no clear cause for die outbreak, Doubting Doctors and the Hysteria Hypothesis and Pokemon returned to the airwaves. Further research was Yet several doctors expressed skepticism at the reported left to doctors later that year. To date there have been only a breadth of the outbreak. Dr. Yashudi Maeda, of a Fukuoka handful of accounts and analyses of the Pokemon episode in children's hospital, suspected that "the cases [regarding video scientific journals, three of them published in the Annals of game seizures] were most likely epileptic fits due to hypersen­ Neurology (one by Takashi Hayashi et al., another by Yushiro sitivity to light, but I am not sure about the cases in which Yamashita et al., and a much mote in-depth piece by Shozo children just felt sick." Tobimatsu et al.). ABC News reporter Mark Bloch (1997) also found some Hayashi et al. (1998) surveyed patients in the Yamaguchi scientists skeptical: prefecture (population 1,550,000) and found twelve affected children with no history of epilepsy. During the program, two In fact, epilepsy experts interviewed by ABCNews.com were skeptical the seizures experienced by hundreds of viewers were had fainted and ten had tonic-clonic convulsions (in which the triggered by an epilcpsy-likc syndrome. "I've never heard any­ victims lose consciousness, usually with a stiffening of the body thing like it," said Dr. Jeffrey Cohen, director of the Epilepsy and forceful expiration of air, along with muscle contractions Program at the Clinical Neuro-Physiology Laboratory at New and other symptoms). Eleven of the twelve had "epileptic EEG York's Beth Israel Medical Center. He said it's possible that a few of the children watching may have experienced photosen­ abnormalities or photosensitivity." The researchers concluded sitive-induced seizures. "But it's hard to conceive that 700 that the children had latent photosensitive conditions that did." The director of New York University's F.pilcpsy Center became seizures when induced by the flashing lights. They fur­ agrees. "1 think there were maybe two or three or ten that went ther estimated the incidence of seizures triggered by Pokemon to emergency rooms, then the media picked up the story and that in turn produced a wave of anxiety-based reactions," Dr. was greater than 1.5 per 10,000, ten times the incidence found Orrin Devinsky said. The reaction could just as likely have by British researchers (Quirk et al. 1995). been produced by anxiety and hyperventilation, he said. Yamashita et al. (1998) investigated all the children in eighty elementary schools in an area widi a population of Rika Kayama, psychologist and author of a book on video 470,807. Out of the 32,083 students, only one child had a games and health, told Kyodo news that the illnesses might convulsion, but 1,002 reported minor symptoms. As half of all have been caused by photosensitive epilepsy or "group hyster­ boys and girls saw the program, Yamashita et al. suggest that ics" (Snyder 1997). 6.25 percent of the children were affected. This is similar to To understand why the Pokemon episode may qualify as a the percentage of children in the general population who show case of mass hysteria, a little background is necessary. Mass photosensitivity (8.9 percent). hysteria (or mass sociogenic illness, as it is also called) begins Tobimatsu et al. (1999) studied four children who had when individuals under stress unwittingly convert that stress been affected by Pokemon. The authors write that "The prob­ into physical ills. Peers, family members, or friends may also able cause [of the attacks] was PSE [photosensitive epilepsy] in exhibiting the symptoms through contagion, in which because a tremendous number of children developed similar the suggestion of a threat can be enough to create symptoms. symptoms at exactly the same time in a similar situation. . . . Outbreaks are most common in closed social units (such as However it is not clear as to why so many children without schools, hospitals, or workplaces) and where afflicted individ­ any previous seizures [75%] were also affected or exactly which uals are under social pressure and stress (Bartholomew and components of the cartoon [caused die attack]." Sirois 1996). None of die children had a previous history of convulsions The victims are firmly convinced their illness is "real," before me Pokemon episode, and all were found to be more sen­ although extensive tests and investigations fail to identify a sitive to rapid color changes than monochromatic ones. All were cause for the symptoms. Victims are usually very reluctant to considered to have PSE. The researchers suggest that "the rapid accept the diagnosis, however, and remain convinced of the color changes in the cartoon thus provoked the seizures." The legitimacy of their illness (Stewart 1991). researchers believe that the children's sensitivity to color—in par­ It should be understood that the illness complaints are real ticular rapid changes between red and blue—played an impor­ and verifiable; the victims are not imagining their problems. tant role in triggering the seizures (Tobimatsu et al. 1999). Four Episodes of mass hysteria can last anywhere from a couple of children, however, represent a very small sample, and die results hours to a few weeks, with many averaging about a week. The found may not be applicable to the general population. cases usually arise quickly, peak, and then subside just as The childrens' viewing habits and the physical setup of quickly. Media reports and publicity help fuel the hysteria as Japanese homes exacerbated the effect. In a country with more news of the affliction spreads, planting the idea or concern in than 126 million people in an area the size of Montana and a the community while reinforcing and validating the veracity of population density of 865 per square mile, Japanese homes are the illness for the initial victims. typically quite small. Big-screen televisions are the norm, and Many aspects of the Pokemon panic lend itself to a diag­ most living rooms could apdy be described as small theaters. nosis of mass hysteria: Many children sit very close to the television as well; one 14- • Many of the Pokemon-'mduccd symptoms reported (e.g., year-old boy sitting three feet from his big-screen television headaches, dizziness, vomiting) arc less typical of seizures than was struck unconscious. of mass hysteria. Conversely, symptoms that are associated with

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/June 2001 29 seizures (e.g., drooling, stiffness, tongue biting) were not found however, may contribute to mass hysteria—the compulsion in Pokemon victims. Three other symptoms (convulsions, faint­ to conform. ing, and nausea) that were common to Pokemon victims are Bob Riel (1996), manager at a Boston-based cross-cultural associated with both seizures and mass hysteria (see table 1). training firm, puts it this way: "One of the most important (It is important to distinguish seizures from epilepsy. A traits of the Japanese mindset is its collective nature. In Japan, seizure is a symptom of epilepsy, which in turn is a general term we comes before /— a concept that's taught early on. Unlike for an underlying tendency of the brain to produce a variety of Western children, who are taught to be independent self- electrical energy that disrupts brain function. Seizures can be thinkers, Japanese children are educated in a way that stresses brought about through various ways [e.g., a lack of oxygen, interdependence, and reliance on others. Many Japanese brain injury, high fever], and one seizure does not in itself habits and customs stem from this desire to maintain the establish epilepsy. There are several types of seizures; research group." This type of collective social order makes a fertile by Tobimatsu et al. found that the Pokemon victims they stud­ ground for contagion. ied all had generalized tonic-clonic seizures, so that is the type In addition, some facets of Japanese culture may lend itself I have used for comparison.) toward acting out. When Japanese rock star "Hide" • The incidence of photosensitive epilepsy is estimated at 1 Matsumoto hanged himself in May 1998, three people tried to in 5,000 (Cohen 1999). Such an incidence (0.02 percent of the follow him in suicide; one fourteen-year-old girl hanged her­ population) comes nowhere near explaining the sheer number self using a towel, the same method Matsumoto used. A rash of children affected (in some cases nearly 7 percent of the view­ of Japanese youth suicides also followed the death of singer ers). This is not to say that some children did not endure Yutaka Ozaki in 1992 (Watanabe 1998). seizures, but clearly the vast majority of children did not. • Stress frequently plays an important role in cases of mass The Missing Link hysteria, and Japanese youth are under tremendous academic While several facets of the incident suggested mass hysteria, and social pressures to achieve. Japanese schools in particular there was one large problem with that hypothesis: Most of the are known as high stress-generating institutions, and students children were separated in their own homes. There was little with low (or even mediocre) grades have been known to kill opportunity for contagion, no way for a few real "index" cases themselves. The week the episode aired, many Japanese to influence other children. With no plausible vehicle for inde­ youths were preparing for high school entrance exams and pendent children to see or hear others having seizures or symp­ therefore already under added pressure (Asahi Shimbun toms, there could be no mass hysteria. So how did it happen? 1997a). Extraordinary stress by itself cannot and does not The answer is that the Pokemon seizures didn't occur just trigger epidemic hysteria. Another aspect of Japanese culture. at one time. The phenomenon unfolded in stages, and the chronology of events is crucial. The jump in reported cases (see the timeline) is strong evidence for the role the media Seizures, Symptoms, and Hysteria played in the panic. According to news accounts of the time, the number of children said to be affected stays around 700 symptom gran mal Pokemon mass the evening of the Pokemon episode (Tuesday night) and the seizure attack hysteria next day. The next morning "Television and newspaper head­ convulsions/ muscle spasm yes yes yes lines were dominated by the reports. 'Pokemon panic,' fainting/loss of screamed national newspaper Mainichi" (MSNBC 1997). consciousness yes yes yes Japanese children who hadn't heard about their peers from nausea yes yes yes the news or their parents learned of it that morning, when drooling/frothing yes no yes the seizures "were the talk of the schoolyards" (Yomiuri loss of bladder control yes no no Shimbun 1997b). bluish skin yes no no Once the children had a chance to hear panicky accounts of rigidity/stiffness yes no no what had happened through the media, their friends, and their sudden cry yes no no schools, the number of kids reported the next day to have been biting tongue yes no no affected—two days before, Tuesday night—shot up a staggering headaches no yes yes 12,000 cases. The first accounts of thousands of students being bad/blurry vision no yes yes affected appear only after extensive media coverage and the dizziness no yes yes opportunity for contagion in the schools. And schools are vomiting no yes yes among the most common places for outbreaks of mass hysteria shortness of breath no yes yes to begin (Stewart 1991; Bartholomew and Sirois 1996). Interesting and possibly similar incidents occurred in the

Table 1: A comparison of symptoms typical of gran mal (tonic-clonic) seventeenth and eighteenth centuries in parts of the south­ seizures, the Pokemon attacks, and mass hysterias. Aside from the first ern United States during certain religious revival meetings. three symptoms shared by all three afflictions, the symptoms reported by the Pokemon victims more closely match those of mass hysteria than Fervent participants at the nighttime rallies would ". . . with seizures. a piercing scream, fall like a log on the floor, earth, or mud.

30 May/June 2001 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Acknowledgments Pokemon Panic Timeline 1 would like to thank Dr. Shozo Tobimatsu of the Neurological Institute at Kyushu University in Japan for his help in obtaining Tuesday December 16, 1997 6:30 P.M. materials, and Robert Bartholomew for his suggestions and input. Pokemon Episode 38 (Computer Warrior Polygon) airs; the flashing lights segment begins at about 6:50; the Fire- Defense agency claims that between 6:50 and 7:30, 618 chil­ Note dren were rushed to hospitals with convulsions, headaches, A lengthier and somewhat more technical version of this article and vision problems. was published in the February 2001 Southern Medical Journal, Tuesday December 16, 1997 (later that night) co-written with Robert Bartholomew. Evening news reports that hundreds of children were taken to hospitals from Pokemon fits; some news shows then References rebroadcast the scene suspected of causing the seizures. A Altman, 1..K. 2000. Mysterious illnesses often turn out to be mass hysicria. second wave of children (number unknown) is affected The New York Timet, January 18, D-1. upon hearing the news. AOL.com. 1999. Parent's guide to Pokemon. On AOL.com, December 3. Wednesday December 17. 1997 Asahi Shimbun. 1997a. Popular TV cartoon blamed for mass seizures. Pokemon attacks are "the talk of the schoolyards"; December 17. 1 1997b. TV Tokyo to set cartoon guidelines. December 19. "Television and newspaper headlines Wednesday morning Bartholomew, R. 1997. Collective delusions: A skeptic's guide. SKI- pi ICAL were dominated by the reports." The number of victims reported in the media ranges from over 600 to over 700. INQUIRER 21(3):29-33. May/June. . 1999. Epidemic hysteria in Virginia. Southern Medical Journal Thursday December 18, 1997 92(8):762, August. Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper reports that nearly 13,000 chil­ Bartholomew. R.. and F. Sirois. 1996. Epidemic hysteria in schools: An inter­ dren had "at least minor symptoms," with 685 taken to hos­ national and historical overview. Educational Studies22(3). pitals. Bloch, M. 1997. Seizure or hysicria? ABCNews.com, April 15. Cartoon-based illness mystifies Japan. CNN Headline News, December 17. Friday December 19, 1997 Chua-Eoan, H„ and T Larimer. 1999. Beware of Pokemania. Time Yomiuri Shimbun reports on completed investigations by 154(21):81. November 22. the newspaper and local boards of education, finding the Cohen, J. 1999. Personal correspondence. number of children reported to have experienced "fits, Hayashi. T., et al. 1998. Pocket Monsters, a popular television cartoon, attacks nausea, and other symptoms" to be 11,870. Japanese children. Annuls of Neurology 44(3):427, September. Japan Times. 1997. 'Pocket monsters' shocks TV viewers into convulsions. December 17. and appear as dead." The limbs and head of those afflicted Jones, T.F., et al. 2000. Mass sociogenic illness attributed to toxic exposure at a high school. The New England Journal of Medicine 342(2):96, would jerk and twitch. The episodes often ended with the January 13. person collapsing, though sustaining little actual harm from Massey. E.W., Brannon, W.L. Jr., and Riley. T.L. 1981. The 'Jerks': Mass hys­ the episode. Neurologist E. Wayne Massey and his col­ teria or epilepsy? Southern Medical Journal '74(5):607-609. MSNBC. 1997. Japanese 'toon wreaks havoc. MSNBC.com. December 17. leagues at the National Naval Medical Center examined Ncxt-gencration.com. 1997. Monster scare prompts Nintendo stock freeze. first-hand accounts of this phenomenon (called "the jerks") December 17. and suggested that the wild and apparently involuntary Pharmaceutical Information Associates, Ltd. 1994. Video games trigger seizures. Medical Sciences Bulletin. May. actions may have been triggered by epilepsy which was then Quirk, J.A., et al. 1995. First seizures associated with playing electronic screen imitated by other highly suggestible group members. games: A community-based study in Great Britain. Annals of Neurology Massey et al. (1981) write that among the participants 37(6):734, June. Radford. B., and R. Bartholomew. 2001. Pokemon contagion: Photosensitive "there were perhaps some who had epilepsy. Some meetings epilepsy or mass psychogenic illness? Southern Medical Journal 94(2): were held during the evening with only light from torches 197-204. flickering in the night. Did this trigger any seizures? Did Riel. B. 1996. Understanding the Japanese mindset. Relocation Journal and Real Estate News, October; accessed at www.relojournal.com. those few with epilepsy set the stage by example to trigger Snyder, J. 1997a. Cartoon sickens children. Reuters report on ABC News, mass hysterial response from others?" December 17. . 1997b. 'Monsrcr' TV cartoon illness mystifies Japan. Reuters report, Conclusion December 17. Stewart, J.R. 1991. The West Bank collective hysteria episode. SKEPTICAL Although widely regarded either as a mystery or as a simple INQUIRER 15(2): 153, Winter. case of mass epileptic seizures, the 1997 Pokemon panic is Sullivan, K. 1997. Japan's cartoon violence TV networks criticized after chil­ dren's seizures. Washington Post Foreign Service. December 19. much more complex than that. With very few exceptions, Tobimatsu. S.. et al. 1999. Chromatic sensitive epilepsy- A variant of photo­ much of the media overlooked the possibility of, and con­ sensitive epilepsy. Annals of Neurology 45(6):790, June. tributing factors to, mass hysteria. Watanabe, C. 1998. Japanese fans mourn rocker's death. Associated Press report, May 7. Several researchers have noted that mass hysterias are prob­ Whitlock. J.A. 1999. Seizures and epilepsy: Frequently asked questions. ably more common than currently recognized (sec. for exam­ Northeast Rehabilitation Hospital. New Hampshire: Salem. ple, Jones 2000). Victims are frequently reluctant to accept a Yamashita, Y., ct al. 1998. Pocket Monsters attacks Japanese children via media. Annals of Neurology 44(3):428 September. verdict of mass hysteria, and Japanese victims are likely to be Yomiuri Shimbun. 1997a. TV Tokyo to investigate 'Pocket Monster' panic. even more so because of the importance of "saving face" in December 18. Japanese culture. But there is no shame in being a victim of . 1997b. Govt, launches probe of Monster' cartoon. December 18. . 1997c Psychiatrists seek animation probe. December 19. mass hysteria, if that is in fact what occurred in December .1997d. 360 children suffer fits while viewing TV cartoon. 1997 in Japan. December 17.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/June 2001 31 The Antinous Prophecies A Nostradamoid Project

The prophecies of Nostradamus are said to foretell events centuries in his future. Are the prophecies merely verbal ink blots to which humans "fit" events? Here's a test using random simulations.

CLIFFORD A. PICKOVER

Thinking is more interesting than knowing, but less interesting than looking. —Wolfgang von Goethe

ichel Nostredame, better known as Nostradamus (1503-1566), was a French astrologer and physi­ Mcian, the most widely read seer of the Renaissance. Nostradamus began making prophecies around the year 1547, which he published in 1555 in a book titled Centuries. The work consisted of rhymed quatrains grouped in hundreds, each set of 100 called a "century." Some of his prophecies appeared to be fulfilled, and his fame became so widespread that he was invited to the court of Catherine

32 May/June 2001 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER de Medicis, queen consort of Henry II of France, where he cast Some of the people I surveyed considered the idea that the horoscopes of her children. these nine prophecies of Antinous may have been actual I call the attribution of meaning to imprecise, poetic ancient prophecies. For some reason, quatrain 8 generated a phrases "the Nostradamus effect," and I have long been curi­ lot of interest. Marsha S., a respondent from California, sug­ ous to determine if the Nostradamus effect could be simulated gested quatrain 8 prophesied with random quatrains. For example, could it be that the Loma Prieta earthquake back in 1989 when the Bay Bridge Nostradamus's quatrains were like ink blots—not really fore­ broke and everyone had to drive around to get into the city. telling anything but permitting people to fit future history to The doggone thing began in the Santa Cruz mountains ... rather nebulous poems? To test this theory, I composed the fol­ "silica" refers to Silicon Valley. lowing quatrains of gibberish just by letting my mind wander Mike V., from Colorado State University, writes to me: and writing the first images diat came to my mind. As far as I was concerned, they had no particular meaning or signifi­ Quatrain 8 describes the asteroid impact 65 million years ago cance. Nostradamus looked into a glass flask of steaming liq­ that is thought to have killed off the dinosaurs. Here is my logic. 1) Lightning comes near the peninsula, and one will swim: uid to inspire his visions. I looked into the shiny glass of my An observer near the impact site might see the streaking meteor computer's CRT. He may have sought to predict the future. I as it ablated in the atmosphere as lightning. The impact crater sought to write random phrases with absolutely no correspon­ is in the Yucatan peninsula. The Chicxulub impact would cre­ dence to historical events. ate massive ocean waves that would wash inland, thus the "one will swim." 2) There is ruin, Isster, but all is not lost. The comet After composing the quatrains, I asked people to match my caused a huge crater, tidal waves, firestorms, and airborne ash quatrains with actual historical happenings. I called the qua­ that blocked the Sun for years. The dinosaurs went extinct, as trains the "quatrains of Antinous," which sounded and looked did over 80 percent of life on Earth. (Not all is lost.) Life went suitably exotic, especially with the umlaut u symbol. The ran­ on, and the small furry mammals that survived led eventually to ourselves. 3) From the steel and silica brim I Blood, and water, domized quatrains arc listed in the following table. Judge for but not at cost. The impact fused the silicates and sand into a yourself. Did I actually channel a man named Antinous? Could crust around the edge of the crater. If the impact object was a I be die next Nostradamus, "the Nostradamus from New stony carbonaceous chondritc there would be silicates all over York"? If my prophecies actually do predict future events, I the impact site. If it was nickel iron, the site would be ridden with nickel, and iron, which is a component of steel. Blood and hope a hundred years from now people will remember me. . ..

M 5Ilj£ Antutoita IJrnpljrrieB, in (Quatrain Dfarm 111

1. After the skirmish, one is wounded the other dies. The white dove is a bee. The great white one sings by the fire of night. A hat docs not hurt lepers. The European does not rise but merely flies 6. The capuchin, covered with water Near the water, near the cross and knight. Some holy music, England, after a rain 2. An ape came from North, cool and damp. Sees nothing but the bone daughter The stegosauri cry, poe, poe, loe. And she, the long one, is in pain. My rear end hurts beneath the lamp 7. He will be betrayed by a lost friend. Thirty thousand opalescent hearts are low. He will leave through feigned desire. 3. From the edge America, even as north, She will be united twice until the end A child, the rock, is born with an amber heart. Near the buildings, desert, and melted mire. The change is nearly as the fourth: 8. Lightning comes near the peninsula, and one will swim. Sea, land, a victory, and a cart. There is ruin, Lester, but all is not lost 4. The robber of the west, not of silver but gold From the steel and silica brim Places the cauldron on darkening wine Blood, and water, but not at cost. Smoke is often less than sold 9. The dark head causes problems for the small king. In a Latin furnace, like a hash, like a line. As much good as Asia, the winged, had done. 5. Princess Charlene in Italy There are the enemies, three, a ring, With a trinity of peppers. The exiles scream, while J., the wires, do not shun.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/June 2001 33 water refers further to the death and destruction caused by the "An ape came from North, cool and damp" refers to Hitler. impact. I cannot think of any reason for "but not at cost" except " The stegosauri cry, poe, poe, loe" represents the Jews crying to fill out the rhyme. from the soul of a whole being annihilated. " My rear end hurts beneath the lamp" refers to the torture that was inflicted upon Another respondent, computer scientist David G. from the Jews. " Thirty thousand opalescent hearts are low" refers to Lexington, Kentucky, said, "All of these seem to be very Jewish deaths. prophetic!" This respondent suggested diat quatrain 1 foretells Mike F. suggested that Quatrain 2: the demise of IBM. The first line "After the skirmish, one is wounded the other dies, "refers to the fight between IBM and refers to die Carthaginian general Hannibal (247 B.C.—183 Microsoft. The respondent wrote to me: B.C.) who commanded the Carthaginian forces against Rome in the Second Punic War. The phrase "came from the North, IBM's operating system, OS/2, was killed by the fight, and, cool and damp" refers to him crossing the Alps to attack Italy. although Microsoft's Windows was wounded, it survived. The stegosauri (dinosaurs) are a metaphor for the large ele­ Microsoft, being the great white hope, at least initially, sings phants Hannibal brought with him. "Poe" refers to the Po the praises of their Windows operating system in a world dark­ River to which the Romans rushed to protect the recently ened by IBM. Microsoft, whose president is of European her­ founded Roman colonies of Placentia and Cremona. "Rear itage, flies into market domination from their location in end hurts" refers to the Allobroges, a Celtic tribe that attacked Redmond, Washington (near the water), and takes over the Hannibal's troops from the rear as they marched to Rome. world. I'm a litde confused by the " cross and knight" reference. Thirty thousand refers to the number of infantry. Could it refer to a chess board? When I looked up the Punic War in a history book, I found One respondent suggested that quatrain 8 referred to the that there was only 20,000 infantry. When I told the respon­ Cherynobyl nuclear disaster. Denise W. wrote to me suggest­ dent this, he replied that "the quatrain refers to all the hearts ing that the first quatrain refers to the wreck of the Titanic: in: 20,000 infantry, 6,000 cavalry, 38 surviving elephants, and The skirmish could refer to the actual collision. Trie "great miscellaneous pack animals which might very well produce a white one" is the iceberg that have struck the ship; it would sum close to thirty thousand." Other respondees thought this have been "wounded' in the crash. The reference to the predicted the appearance of Yeti or Bigfoot. European refers to a flag that floats on the water in the after­ Jessie G., age twelve, had this to say about quatrain 3: math. The cross and knight nay represent some of the remain­ ing wreckage or perhaps survivors in rafts. Quatrain 3, with phrases like "From the edge America, even as north" refers to the pilgrims landing at Plymouth rock. "The L.R. writes regarding quatrain 1: change is nearly as the fourth" means the Fourth of July signing of die Declaration of Independence. "Sea, land a victory and The first quatrain refers to the American War of Independence. a cart" refers to how the American revolution was won, "After the skirmish" refers to the war between the colonics and because we fought the British in the sea, and on land. I don't England. "One is wounded the other dies" represents America know what a can stands for. coming to power and the abolition of English rule. "The great white one sings by the fire of night represents America celebrat­ Jack H., an electrical engineer from Portland, Oregon, sug­ ing Independence Day with bonfires and fireworks. "Near the water, near the cross and knight" signifies the souls of the English gested that quatrain 3 predicts Henry Ford and his impact on and the remnants of their pride—all slowly returning to society. Jack writes to me: England as they feel defeat deep down in their weary bones. The first line, "From the edge America, even as north,"predicts Henry Ford's birth in Dearborn, Michigan. The line, "A child, Bill W. suggests that quattain 1 refers to Moby Dick killing the rock, is born with an amber heart," gives us the message that captain Ahab and his crew in the novel Moby Dick. Tom R. Ford would have a gold heart and show stability in his personal suggests that the first quatrain refers to King Arthur relationships. Although Ford was not a saint, he was a family Pendragon, and that the first line refers to the battle of Camlan man and basic good guy as evidenced by the commission of the Oscar II in 1915, the ship he used for his pacifist expedi­ where Arthur fought his son Mordred and impaled Mordred tion to Europe to try and end WWI, and the Ford Foundation on a lance, while Mordred managed to mortally wound and Ford hospital. The most significant item is in the fourth Arthur. Line 2 refers to Arthur's flag, which was a red dragon line, "Sea, land a victory and a cart." "Sea" refers to the ship on a field of white. Line 3 refers to Arthur's having united Oscar II; "land" refers to Ford's tractor company; "a victory" refers to Ford's factories during World War I and II that pro­ Britain against the Romans. After Arthur died, various con­ duced planes, jeeps, tanks, and munitions; and "cart" refers to flicts arose regarding succession to the throne. Line 4 refers to the first mass produced cars. Arthur's corpse being laid to rest near a lake, and the term "the cross" refers to his famous sword. The knight is his retainer Computer scientist Dave G. comments about quatrain 3: who threw the sword back into the lake. This is another reference to the victory by Microsoft over L.R. writes regarding quatrain 2: IBM. Microsoft, located at the edge of America, specifically in The second quatrain predicts the fall of the Jews under Hitler. the northern part of America, is led by Bill Gates, who was regarded as a child programming prodigy, and whose heart is not blue (e.g., not Big Blue, which is IBM). The change Clifford A. Pickover is the author of Dreaming the Future: The referred to is the domination of the software industry, which Fantastic Story of Prediction (Prometheus, 2001) in which he occurred with the fourth release of Windows (e.g., Windows discusses the Antinous and other prophecies. His Web site, 95). The victory is over software running in computers on www.pickover.com, has received over 300,000 visits. land, and also on the sea (as witnessed by the Navy's tests of

34 May/June 2001 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER using Windows to control their modern ships). The victory Laura T. writes regarding quatrain 5: represents Microsoft's domination of the software industry, and the cart refers to the cart that Bill Gates needs to carry his The third line, " The white dove is a bee" refers to Bernard of Clairvaux, who, along with Ambrose, used bee and beehive profits (e.g., money) with. imagery when referring to the Church and faith. Bernard actu­ Michael D. writes regarding quatrain 3: ally said that the "bee" was the Holy Spirit, which of course would be the "white dove." Line 2, " With a trinity of peppers." Quatrain 3 may refer to the war of 1812. 'From the edge may refer to the Jews, Muslims, and Christians of Jerusalem. America" refers to the fact that one of the final battles of that There was some friction between the groups, and a "pepper" war, fought near New Orleans, was actually on the "edge," or can certainly be an irritant. Bernard was a major factor behind border, of our country. "Even as north" means that this battle, the Second Crusade (1146-1148). As to the fourth line, "A like in the North (which was won by the USA, thereby end­ ing the war, months before the Battle of New Orleans), would be a victory. "A child, the rock" may be referring to Stonewall Jackson, the general who won thai famous battle. The victory for America over the Could it be that British was 'nearly as the fourth" of July, of Nostradamus's quatrains were like which the comparison is obvious. Also, this final battle (along with many other parts of ink blots—not really foretelling anything but the war) was won by Americans in both land and sea. permitting people to fit future history to rather nebulous poems? Bill W. Suggests that quatrain 3 refers to the Mount Rushmore National Memorial in the Black Hills of southwestern South Dakota. Huge sculptures of the heads of presidents George hat does not hurt lepers," a "hat" can symbolize power and reli­ Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Abraham Lincoln, and gious orders. "Hat" may be a reference to Pope Eugcnius III. who approved of Bernard's Crusade, lepers lose their limbs Theodore Roosevelt are carved in granite on the northeast side and arc sequestered from society; similarly, the men who enter of Mt. Rushmore. Other respondees thought quatrain 3 a monastery cast off items and are part of an enclosed society. referred to Christopher Columbus. Bernard was a leader of the Knights Templar, and so the "hat," Some respondees thought quatrain 4 predicted the rise of being the Pope, would not stand in the way of the efforts ("harm") of the "lepers," namely the Knights. The possible Hitler. Mike M. suggests that quatrain 4 refers to the Spanish meaning of the first line, "Princess Charlene in Italy," has Conquistadors who came to South America and plundered the eluded me (a royal female descendent of Charlemagne?). So, in gold from the native people. The smoke refers to the tobacco a nutshell, I think quatrain 5 refers to the Second Crusade. that was discovered in the New World and traded for slaves. Dave G. interprets quatrain 4: Lea Z. felt that quatrain 6 referred to Lady Diana Spencer. Dave G. comments about quatrain 6: This is another reference to Microsoft replacing IBM as the dominating force in the software industry. The robber again Quatrain 6 refers to the demise of IBM at the hands of refers to the wealthy Bill Gates, who lives in the western part Microsoft. One definition of capuchin is of a South American of the country (Washington state). The reference to gold and monkey with the hair on its head in the form of a crown. This not silver represents the high prices charged by Microsoft for refers to the pointy haired managers of IBM going under water its Windows operating system. The cauldron refers to the soft­ (sinking) in their business struggles. The holy music refers to ware development process, and the placing of this on the dark­ the "Start Me Up" song by the Rolling Stones used in ening wine refers to Microsoft's techniques dominating the Microsoft's Windows 95 announcement. IBM has a head­ research being performed by IBM at places like its Almaden quarters in England. After the fight between IBM and Research facility (and, Almaden is also famous for its vine­ Microsoft (the rain), there is nothing but IBM divisions yards, thus the reference to darkening wine). Smoke refers to reduced to starvation (bone), with the S/390 division (the long software, which has no physical properties (e.g., vapor), and one) suffering the most. the reference to "often less than soW refers to software licens­ ing (e.g., the process of charging for the use of software with­ Lea Z. said that quatrain 7 refers to John F. Kennedy, Jr. out the actual transfer of a tide to the software). The hash rep­ and his wife and also sister Caroline. Bill W. suggests that qua­ resents a symbol used in programming, and the reference to a line refers to a line of code. train 7 refers to "Jesus and the resurrection." Other respondees also thought this referred to Jesus. Judi L. writes, "I believe Lea Z. felt quatrain 5 referred to Mother Teresa; however, quatrain 7 refers to Cleopatra and her associations with Caesar Clark R has his own ideas about the meaning behind quatrain 5: and Marc Antony." Some people thought that quatrain 9 described World War "Charlene" was said to be a code for Chariemangc, king of the III. Dave G. comments about quatrain 9: Franks (768-814). king of the Lombards (774-814), and emperor (800—814). The line "Princess Charlene in Italy" refers This quatrain indicates that Bill Gates ("tire dark head") causes to Charlemagne's conquering the Lombard kingdom in Italy. trouble for IBM (the small king). The reference to Asia refers to The "trinity of peppers' refers to Charlemagne's father, Pepin the offshore computer manufacturers, and how the cheap Asian III. The white dove is pope Leo III who crowned computer clones have helped Microsoft dominate the software Chariemangc. The "hat" is the crown. market. But, despite die good done by the clone makers, there

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/June 2001 35 are enemies, such as the governments antitrust suit. The gov­ solicit from friends regarding the Antinous's prophecies. I'd like ernment is specifically referred to here as the "three" for the to create a big collection of possible meanings. In any case, any­ three branches of government, and also as the "ring" since the one who thinks that Nostradamus truly predicted the future three parts are all interlocked. The "exiles" refer to non- should realize that his focus on France made him miss some of the most Earth-shattering happenings in the centuries after his death, from the American Many of the historical interpretations civil war to Darwin's theory of evolution. provided by respondents reflect our modern Incidentally, an "Antinous" really minds reacting to amorphous poetry. existed although only one of my respon­ dents realized this. Antinous (110 B.C-130 Nostradamus's prophecies tend to be general A.D.) was the homosexual lover of the Roman emperor Hadrian, and they trav­ and unordered. This makes it difficult to eled togedier on many journeys through­ say when a particular quatrain has out the Mediterranean world. While the two were visiting Egypt, Antinous drowned missed or hits its mark. in the Nile. Hadrian loved Antinous so much that when Antinous died, Hadrian deified him. Hadrian erected Microsoft software developers, and J temples to him all over the empire and refers to the Justice department. However, despite the screaming, the founded a city, named Antinoopolis in Justice department does not cause his honor, near the place of his death. problems for Microsoft, which contin­ Many sculptures, gems, and coins sur­ ues to take over ("do not shun") the vive depicting Antinous as a model of Internet ("the wires"). youthful beauty. Bill W suggests that quatrain 9 Finally, Linda Z. from Canada was refers to the "axis powers of World perceptive in her analysis recognizing the War II." possible identity of Antinous. She writes Many of the places and people men­ Discussion tioned in your "Antinous Quatrains" would have been inconceivable in the As you can see, many of the historical era of Hadrian and Antinous. Such interpretations provided by respon­ anachronistic terms include "knight," dents reflect our modern minds react­ "America," and "stegosauri." Even ing to amorphous poetry. Nostra­ though the verses are supposed to be prophecy, they clearly arc not couched damus's prophecies tend to be general in the language of Roman times. From and unordered. This makes it difficult this I surmise ili.u you refer to a differ­ to say when a particular quatrain has ent Antinous, or that die "prophecies" missed or hits its mark. Judge for your­ arc a more recent forgery. I sense the stench of computer-generated verse. I self. Many Web sites contain looked a little farther, and the only Nostradamus's prophecies, and there "Princess Charlene" I could find on the are a number of excellent books that Antinous, lover of Roman emperor Hadrian. Web was a llama! I suspect I'm on the delve into their possible meanings (or right track. Nevertheless, here are my interpretations. Quatrain 3 with the nonmeanings). phrase "the northern edge of America' refers to Canadian geog­ I've also randomly scrambled real Nostradamus quatrains raphy. The second line is a reference to Newfoundland, which in order to conduct future experiments to see if people can eas­ is always called "die rock." The child with the amber heart refers to salmon. The third line, "the change is nearly as the ily find "meaning" in them. Although I've done the scrambling fourth" clearly refers to the issuance of a new Canadian quar­ by hand, I suggest future researchers write computer programs ter, depicting native art from British Columbia. The fourth that randomly select lines from quatrains to make computer- line with "sea, land" clearly refers to the Great Lakes; the vic­ generated "Nostradamemes" or "Nostradamlets." tory could be the War of 1812, and the can is clearly the Canadian Mint's online shopping can where coin collectors It would be interesting to rigorously determine if the worldwide can purchase die aforementioned new quaners. Nostradamus prophecies yielded more historical matches than the Antinous's prophecies. This would be difficult to assess because of die difficulty of assigning a correctness estimate to References the unfalsifiable prophecies. One test would be to determine Pickover, Clifford A 2001. Dreaming the Future: The Fantastic Story of which prophecies elicited the most similar historical interpre­ Prediction. Amherst, New York: Prometheus Books. tations by different interpreters. Randi. James. 1993. The Mask of Nostradamus. Amherst, New York: I look forward to additional interpretations that you might Prometheus Books. D

36 May/June 2001 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Common Myths of Children's Behavior

A number of false belief about children's behavior are very common among parents and the lay public. This article summarizes scientific findings and applies critical thinking to show what's tripped up so many of us. CATHERINE A. FIORELLO

o one considers parenting a pseudoscience, but many of the "truths" that parents believe are con­ Ntradicted by scientific knowledge. Discussion of these myths can shed light on our knowledge of children's behavior. In addition, the discussion illustrates some basic scientific principles that can also be applied elsewhere.

1. "Don't give Sheldon that candy—sugar makes him so hyper!" Many parents and teachers report that childrens' consumption of sugar results in hyperactivity. But the empirical research is clear: consumption of sugar has no effect on children's behavior as rated by objective observers (Milich, Wolraich, and Lindgren 1986). So why are parents

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/June 2001 37 and teachers convinced it has such devastating effects? They are auditory one. Parents and teachers should be concerned about not aware of the need to control fir covariates. A covariate is a child who can't generate rhyming words, not one who is another variable that is associated with the variable of interest, in reversing letters. this case sugar consumption, but that might not be as noticeable. So why are people so concerned about reversals? They arc What variables might be overlooked by parents and teachers in not aware of the effect of base rate in interpreting behavior. judging the effects of sugar? Well, think about the situations in The base rate is the percentage of the general population that which children eat a lot of sugar, like birthday parties and has a given characteristic. In this case, all children start out Halloween—these are situations that are likely to excite children. making reversals. After all, letters and numbers are the only There's another possible covariate, too. Children whose things that we draw where the direction the figure is facing parents don't restrict sugar at all, letting their children eat makes a difference in its name. (A dog facing right instead of whatever they want whenever they want it, are also more likely left is still a dog; a 'd' facing right instead of left is now a 'b'.) to let their children run wild in other ways. And parents who Children gradually learn which way the letters face and by restrict sugar (it is bad for your teeth, after all) are also more second or third grade they are no longer making reversals. likely to teach self-restraint and obedience. But we often see The same percentage of children make reversals, whether they the child without seeing the parenting. So we see an associa­ are having difficulty with reading or not (Black 1973; tion between the sugar and the behavior, instead of an associ­ Pemberton et al. 1993), although children with reading dis­ ation between parenting style and behavior. abilities may keep it up a little longer. But people only notice with the kids who are having trouble—and never compare it 2. "She's writing her letters backward—it must be to the base rate. dyslexia." Many parents and teachers become concerned when a child is reversing letters, afraid that this is a sign of 3. "Tanisha is just immature. If we have her repeat first dyslexia. But the empirical research indicates that the primary grade, she'll do better in school." Many parents and teachers indicator of reading disabilities such as dyslexia is difficulty are convinced that some children are too young or too imma­ with auditory processing and phonemic awareness—breaking ture for their grade placement, and that retention will help words down into their component sounds them catch up. But the empirical research indicates the oppo­ (Beitchman and Young 1997; site—retention not only has no long-term benefits, it can actu­ Shaywitz 1996). Dyslexia isn't a ally harm children emotionally (Jimerson, et al. 1997). In visual disability at all, but an fact, children rate retention as the third most horrible thing they can imagine happening to them—after losing a parent and going blind (Yamamoto, et al. 1987). So why are par­ ents and teachers convinced that it is helpful? Lack of long- term followup and lack of a control group. In most cases, a teacher judges the outcome of retention the next year, when the child is actually repeating the same grade. At that point, the child may be doing well academically. But the following year, when the child starts to fall behind again, the teacher isn't following up any more. And the parent says, "Well, the retention helped for a while, but now we need to try something else." And without a com­ parison to children who weren't retained, it's hard to see the benefits of promotion—and the costs of retention.

4. "Praise doesn't work. After I compliment John, his performance goes downhill. It's yelling when­ ever he messes up that really gets results!" Many parents and teachers are convinced that punishment

Catherine A. Fiorello is an assistant professor of school psychology at Temple University. She is a licensed psy­ chologist in Pennsylvania and Kentucky and a nationally certified school psychologist. Fiorello can be contacted at the School Psychology Program, Temple University (004-00), 1301 Cecil B. Moore Ave. RA- 260, Philadelphia, PA 19122-6091 or by e-mail at cfiorell@nimbus. temple, edu.

38 May/June 2001 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER is more effective in changing behavior than praise. But the performance, making friends, and getting along in the family empirical research indicates that positive reinforcement is and community (Barkley 1998). more effective than punishment in changing behavior and So why are parents and teachers convinced? They're not especially in teaching new skills (Alberto and Troutman familiar with the process of diagnosis and the importance of 1999). So why are parents and teachers convinced that pun­ norms. Parents and teachers may have read an article or heard a ishment is better? They aren't familiar with the statistical con­ speaker that presented a list of symptoms, including items such cept of regression to the mean. When you are first learning as that the child "often does not seem to listen when spoken to something, there is a large element of random chance in how direcdy" and "often fidgets with hands or feet or squirms in good your performance will be. Statistically, this random vari­ seat." The part that seldom gets presented, though, is the fact ation causes an interesting effect. After a particularly good that diagnosticians must determine that the symptoms "have performance, the chances are the next one will be worse, no persisted for at least six months to a degree that is maladaptive matter what happens. And after a particularly bad one, the and inconsistent with developmental level" and cause "clinically significant impairment" in functioning (American Psychiatric chances are the next one will be better, no matter what hap­ Association 1994). In other words, we are not diagnosing chil­ pens. So it looks like the praise caused your performance to dren who are normally fidgety; we are comparing children to deteriorate, and the yelling caused you to do better. But really, others of the same age and gender and diagnosing those who it was just random variation bringing you closer to the aver­ have very extreme symptoms (often the most extreme 2 percent). age. (For more on the regression effect, see "Superstition and We only diagnose children whose functioning (usually in school, the Regression Effect," by Kruger, Savitsky, and Gilovich, SI with peers, and at home) is significantly impaired by their inat­ 23[2] March/April 1999.) tention, impulsivity, and hyperactivity. And in addition we rule out other causes of the symptoms—such as reactions to grief, 5. "I was spanked as a kid and I turned out okay." Many trauma, or abuse; hearing difficulties; or physical illness. parents and teachers are convinced that occasional spanking is necessary, or at least not harmful. But the empirical research indicates that, while most children who are spanked do turn 7. "We're in the middle of an ADHD epidemic! Ten to twenty out all right, children who are not spanked do better, and for a percent of all children should be on Ritalin!" This myth is significant minority of children, spanking is harmful and abu­ the converse of the above. Because there is no objective test sive (Hyman 1990; Straus, Sugarman, and Giles-Sims 1997). for ADHD, actually diagnosing it can be tricky. Many pediatri­ So why are parents and teachers convinced? They aren't aware cians diagnose ADHD based on a short office visit and good of the necessity of an appropriate comparison group. They look response to a trial of Ritalin (Copeland, et al. 1987). This process at their own experience without considering, "what would I overlooks many common problems that can mimic ADHD, have been like if I hadn't been spanked as a child?" Of course, including depression, anxiety, medication side effects, abuse, lead children can't be exacdy equated. But when you randomly select large groups of children, you can compare the groups and COMMON MYTHS OF CHILDREN'S BEHAVIOR draw some conclusions. As a group, children who are never Continued on page 44 spanked are in better shape psychologically—they are less likely to be aggressive or depressed later in life. There is even some evidence that they may be smarter (Straus and Paschal! undated). Of course, we don't know if parents who £^ spank are different in other ways from parents who s S " don't—they might reason verbally with their children *.*" j>. instead of spanking, or be more educated overall. The T4 only way to directly test the effects of just spanking . would be to randomly assign children to be ^^ spanked—and we couldn't ethically do that. 1^1

6. "Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder ^^V. doesn't really exist. After all, we're all fidgety and A^^ ' inattentive sometimes." Many parents and teach­ ers are convinced that ADHD isn't a "real" disor- \ der, but an excuse for bad behavior or poor par- TSV^. enting, or just a way to label normal kids as hav- I ^w ing a problem. ADHD may, indeed, be over- I *^_^- diagnosed in this country. But the empirical research indicates that 3 to 5 percent of children have such severe symptoms that it affects their functioning in almost every area, including school

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/June 2001 39 Bertrand Russell and the Ideal of Critical Receptiveness

Russell's rational and moderate skepticism entails an ideal of inquiry based on critical receptiveness which views the acquisition of knowledge as difficult but not impossible.

WILLIAM HARE

ertrand Russell (1872—1970) enjoys a well-deserved place among the outstanding skeptics of the twenti­ Beth century.1 His work not only sets a powerful exam­ ple of skepticism in practice, but also helps to clarify the nature and value of skepticism. Russell explicitly rejects what he calls a lazy skepticism and dogmatic doubt, where all inquiry is regarded as pointless and doomed to failure, argu­ ing instead for a constructive skepticism which seeks approx­ imate truth even though certainty is unattainable. He is anx­ ious that his own position be seen as a form of rational doubt, which requires that beliefs be held with the degree of conviction warranted by the evidence. Tentative truth replaces cocksure certainty.

40 May/June 2001 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Russell identifies two dispositions at the heart of the inquir­ remains adamant that ideals such as truth, impartiality, and ratio­ ing spirit, dispositions that to some extent tend in different nality (and corresponding intellectual virtues such as the wish to directions but which need to co-exist in a dynamic tension and find out and a readiness to admit new evidence) remain indis­ delicate equilibrium if either one is to serve its purpose in pro­ pensable to serious inquiry. He consistendy champions truth as moting the pursuit of truth. He strongly endorses a welcoming an ideal toward which we can approximate even if we always fall attitude toward new and controversial ideas, albeit infused with short of complete certainty (Russell 1985, 149); and he main­ a definite reluctance and disinclination to give full assent to any tains that it is possible to make a continual approach toward idea before it has passed careful scrutiny. This is die complex, impartiality. For Russell, truth and rationality, considered as almost paradoxical, stance of critical receptiveness.1 ideals, remain unaffected by what were, and are, widely regarded Achieving an appropriate balance here is by no means easy, as fatal defects (Russell 1985, 36). If such ideals are to be more and we are always in danger of veering away from the ideal situ­ than empty words, however, a certain outlook and temper of ation where diese twin dispositions complement and support mind is necessary; his conception of the critically receptive out­ each other to a situation in which one begins to displace the look represents an attempt to capture something quite central to other with unfortunate consequences. In harmony, however, they the spirit of inquiry. constitute an oudook that is fundamental to serious inquiry. Russell looks first to science to inti­ mate an appropriate standard for The Spirit of Inquiry inquiry of any kind, and he regu­ It is sometimes maintained that philosophers larly employs phrases such as the have traditionally regarded ideals such as truth, scientific outlook,'' the scientific rationality, and impartiality, especially in the temper, and a scientific habit of context of science, as relatively unproblematic mind to convey a range of disposi­ notions; and that this simplistic view has only tions and attitudes characteristic not recently been discredited by postmodernist think­ only of science but of all inquiry in an ideal form.1' ing (Keller 1995, 11). Contrary to these sugges­ These include a determination to suppress all other tions, however, contemporary awareness of the desires in the interests of a desire to know, a repudia­ deeply problematic nature of such ideas, tion of infallible dogma, and a readiness to admit and of related intellectual virtues such as that present views are sure to require modification or open-mindedness and love of truth, is outright rejection. For Russell, "The scientific tem­ greatly indebted to philosophers of an per is cautious, tentative, and piecemeal; it does not earlier generation, such as Russell, who imagine that it knows the whole truth, or even that were under no illusions about the com­ its best knowledge is true" (Russell 1961a, 245)." plexities in such ideals and who helped to This is the attitude Russell hoped to see reflected reveal the dubiousness of naive confi­ in philosophy, and in all forms of inquiry: dence in them. Unlike many critics today, "Philosophy should be piecemeal and provi­ however, Russell sees clearly that truth, ratio­ sional like science; final truth belongs to nality, and impartiality—suitably qualified—remain heaven, not to this world" (Russell 1927, 3). centrally important in science, education, and elsewhere.5 We This scientific spirit encapsulates an ideal for inquiry of every find in his work a valuable account and defense of those intel­ kind, and Russell identifies certain key intellectual traits that char­ lectual virtues that sustain and promote Enlightenment ideals,' acterize an individual genuinely committed to inquiry, in partic­ and are central to any serious understanding of what it means to ular (a) a strong desire to know, and (b) great caution in believing be an educated person. that one knows (Russell 1927, 3).8 The tension between these Russell sets out to expose simplistic and overly optimistic traits is palpable. A definite readiness to welcome and accept new views about the attainability of truth and rationality and he ideas in the interests of acquiring knowledge is moderated, bal­ demonstrates effectively the need for caution. He points out that anced, and held in check by a disposition to subject such new we can never be sure that our scientific laws are quite right, cit­ ideas to careful assessment before they are accepted. Conversely, ing Einstein's advance on Newton as a prime illustration of this excessive caution in accepting ideas is tempered by a great desire point. He shows too that an immense amount of theory is to add to one's store of knowledge. Critical receptiveness keeps implicated in what is thought of as pure observation, which alive the desire to increase one's knowledge while ensuring that the means that the concept of evidence is inherently problematic. beliefs we eventually come to accept have passed scrutiny. For Russell, a central task of philosophy is to show that what passes for knowledge is very often defective, and consequently William Hare is professor of education at Mount St. Vincent he suggests that the demand for certainty is an intellectual vice. University, Halifax, Nova Scotia B3N IY9, Canada. His books He frankly admits that no one can view the world with com­ include Open-mindedness and Education (1979) and In plete impartiality and advocates that philosophy should pro­ Defence of Open-mindedness (1985). and his research interests mote "a realization of human fallibility" (Russell 1956, 167). focus on the intellectual virtues and their importance in the con­ Despite such limitations and qualifications, however, Russell text of education.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/June 2001 41 Russell thinks of science as the field where our greatest hopes beliefs have been adopted. Nor does receptiveness demand a for something close to genuine knowledge obtain, but even precipitate abandonment of presently held beliefs, in favor of a here an appropriate measure of doubt and tentative acceptance new view, at the first hint of possible counter-evidence; what is make clear the guarded nature of our beliefs; every scientific required instead is a genuine inner commitment to consider the conclusion, says Russell, is capable of revision in the light of new merits of the newly emerging evidence." evidence. At the same time, a strong desire to acquire funher Being receptive to ideas without appropriate critical assess­ knowledge serves to mitigate any tendency to be merely dismis­ ment leads to credulity, and the increasing ease with which sive and contemptuous of new and controversial ideas, and misinformation can be spread leads Russell to view credulity as encourages a willingness to look seriously at what can be said for a greater evil than ever before. If completely unrestrained, them; and the absence of good evidence at the moment does not receptiveness drifts inexorably in this direction, culminating in preclude entertaining the idea that such propositions might pos­ a willingness to accept an idea as true although no good rea­ sibly be true. In the case of claims concerning extrasensory son is offered for it." Any such tendency needs to be offset by perception, for example, Russell repudiates the prejudice many encouraging the development of a critical habit of mind scientists display, and insists that we be "guided solely by the (Russell 1973a, 156)." Equally, however, a critical outlook evidence in coming to a conclusion" (see Slater 1997, 439).g devoid of any inward readiness to take new and contrary ideas A person possessed of an inquiring spirit will, in Russell's seriously leads to incredulity, which effectively puts a halt to words, love to know, and hate to be in error, in equal measure learning and inquiry and merely reinforces complacent dog­ (Russell 1950, 46). Hating error suggests the need to cultivate matism. Russell pinpoints the dilemma precisely in his obser­ the habit of weighing evidence as well as the various skills and vation that "it is not only that [people) are credulous where abilities that complement that disposition. When Russell brings they should be sceptical; it is just as much that they are incred­ to mind how people have often been misled by vicious propa­ ulous where they should be receptive" (Russell 1973a, 41). ganda, he occasionally goes so far as to say that if, in exposing The challenge is to find the balance. such bias, education were to foster cynical skepticism in children, Openness to new ideas, then, must be accompanied by a at least that may make them immune to such propaganda in the critical assessment of those ideas if a person is to avoid becom­ future. It is more accurate, however, to diink of his general posi­ ing, in Paulo Freire's words, "an 'empty' mind passively open tion as one supporting critical reflection rather than cynicism or to the reception of deposits of reality from the world outside" extreme skepticism (see Slater 1997, 434)."' Merely negative crit­ (Freire 1993, 56). Such critical thinking involves a number of icism and cynicism are transformed into constructive doubt if dispositions. It requires taking a close look at our beliefs, and curiosity and receptivity to knowledge are encouraged. at claims to knowledge advanced by others, in order to judge Receptiveness and a love of knowledge entail an openness to to what extent they are supported by reason and evidence, ideas especially when those ideas potentially challenge beliefs we which Russell sometimes calls the habit of attempting to see already hold. Genuine openness, as Neil Cooper puts it, involves things truly. In addition, critical thinking involves trying to "a readiness to connect the new with the old and to restructure, turn the spotlight on assumptions, preconceptions, and those if necessary, the whole web of our belief" (Cooper 1994, 464)." aspects of experience that are all around us but unnoticed."' It It is considerably more dian a merely polite and superficial will­ encompasses finding ways of resisting attempts by others to ingness to tolerate an opposing or novel point of view, behavior impose their ideas and deprive us of the ability to think for that may very well lack what Russell calls "any inward readiness ourselves; here we can think of Russell's tireless condemnation to give weight to the other side" (Russell 1971, 106). True recep­ of propaganda. In these various ways, an individual cries to tiveness thrives on what Russell calls "the love of mental adven­ employ critical judgment without compromising that recep­ ture, die sense of worlds to conquer by enterprise and boldness tiveness to ideas which prevents criticism from hardening into in thought" (Russell 1971, 108). It also involves an openness to closed-mindedness. The need for the twin aspects of critical people that recognizes we have much to learn from others, not receptiveness is captured perfectly in Russell's reminder that only from recognized experts, and it suggests a willingness to lis­ "submission to truth is as important as refusal to submit to the ten in an open-minded spirit. As Russell puts it in one of his judgment of others" (see Rempel 1995, 421). striking images, a person should not become a kind of hedgehog, Critical receptiveness involves assessing the merits of ideas "all bristles to keep the world at a distance" (Russell 1973a, 45). by looking careftdly but sympathetically at die reasons and evi­ Receptiveness is not to be thought of as a disposition to dence both in favor and against. Such sympathy can prevent remain undecided, if such a general disposition were even possi­ criticism from degenerating into knee-jerk skepticism, which is ble, since openness to evidence will naturally lead to the forma­ destructive and ultimately cynical, where incredulity ultimately tion of beliefs.'-' Suspended judgment is certainly appropriate at triumphs over receptiveness.'7 Russell suggests, for example, times, especially when the experts are agreed that there is no ade­ that it may be appropriate to put one's critical evaluation on quate basis for a definite opinion, but Russell also points out hold temporarily to ensure that a fair hearing is given; he favors tJiat it is necessary to learn to act upon the best hypothesis with­ "a kind of hypothetical sympathy, until it is possible to know out dogmatically believing it. A sincere willingness to consider what it feels like to believe in [the] theories, and only then whatever may be said subsequendy against one's beliefs is indica­ a revival of the critical attitude" (Russell, 1961b, 58).* That tive of one's ongoing receptiveness despite die fact tJiat tentative ultimate demand for evidence does not itself put one's

42 May/June 2001 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER receptiveness in question; it is indeed an important aspect of References being receptive, in this case to the possibility that evidence may Alter, Robert. 1998. A readiness to be surprised. Times Literary Supplement. indeed be at hand to support a view which at first seems incred­ January 23: 15-16. ible or to overturn a view one presently holds. Much depends, Cooper. Neil. 1994. The intellectual virtues. Philosophy if): 459-69. Dawkins, Richard. 1998. Science, delusion, and the appetite for wonder. of course, on the spirit in which the demand is made; some­ SKEPTICAL INQUIRER 22(2): 28-33, 58. times it can indeed seem suspiciously as if nothing will ever Feigl, Herbert. 1976. The oudook of scientific humanism. In Freeman. Eugene count as sufficient evidence. In such cases, the demand merely (cd.). The Abdication of Philosophy: Philosophy and the Public Good. La Salle, Illinois: Open Court, pp. 73-79. disguises the fact that our minds are closed. Freire, Paulo. 1993. Pedagogy of the Oppressed New York: Continuum. Russell's account helps us to appreciate that it is a difficult Gardner, Martin. 1997. Courtney Brown's 'cosmic voyage' into preposterism. matter of judgment to find the appropriate balance between SKEPTICAL INQUIRER 21(3): 14-5, 54. Haack. Susan. 1998. Manifesto of a Passionate Moderate. Chicago: University of receptiveness and criticism in practice, and also to recognize Chicago Press. when we and others are giving each of diese dispositions their Hare, William. 1985. In Defence of Open-mindedness. Montreal: McGill-Queen's. due. The matter is further complicated by the fact diat our sense . 1999. Bertrand Russell on critical thinking. Proceedings of the Twentieth World Congress of Philosophy. Available at http://www.bu.edu/ of where the balance is at present shifts from one context, and wcp/Papcrs/Educ/EducHare-him. Also published in Journal of Thought 36. one community, to another. If we think in terms of the general 1,2001:7-16. public and the influence of the media, we may conclude that a Hanshorne, Charles, Paul Weiss, and Arthur Burks (eds.). 1931-58. Collected Papers of Charles Sanders Peine. Cambridge: Harvard University Press. healthy dose of reflective skepticism is just what is required to Josephson, Brian. 1994. Stand up for rocket man v. armchair critic. Times counteract what Richard Dawkins calls "the current epidemic of Higher Educational Supplement August 12: 10-11. paranormal propaganda."" Other contemporary scientists, Keller, Evelyn Fox. 1995. Science and its critics. Academe 81 (5): 10-15. Mitchell, Basil. 1976. Reason and commitment in the academic vocation. however, thinking primarily of the attitudes of practicing scien­ Oxford Review of Education 2(2): 101-9. tists, believe that the scales are skewed very much in favor of Passmore, John. 1994. Reply to my critics. Journal of Aesthetic Education 28(1): negative criticism when it comes to unorthodox views or extra­ 46-53. Rempel. Richard A. (ed.). 1995. Collected Papers of Bertrand Russell Vol. 14. ordinary claims that appear to threaten well-established scien­ London: Routledge. tific beliefs, and they argue for a greater degree of receptivity. Russell. Bertrand. 1927. Philosophy. New York: W. W. Norton. Brian Josephson, for example, argues that the claims of "hereti­ 1950. Unpopular Essays. London: George Allen and Unwin. . 1956. Portraits From Memory. London: George Allen and Unwin. cal scientists" are dismissed as "nonsense or impossible, generally . (1935) 1961a. Religion and Science. New York: Oxford University without any serious attempt to look at the evidence" (Josephson, Press. 1994)." The essence of his objection is not that the unorthodox . [1946] 1961b. History of Western Philosophy. London: George Allen and Unwin. claims he mentions are actually credible, but that their merits . (1916] 1971. Principles of Social Reconstruction. London: Unwin. have not been seriously assessed in a genuine scientific inquiry. . [1926] 1973a. On Education. London: Unwin. Josephson is himself somewhat skeptical, but he refuses to say a . [1912] 1973b. The Problems of Philosophy. London: Oxford University Press. priori that something cannot be the case. He fears that various . [1928] 1985. Sceptical Essays. London: Unwin. "defense mechanisms" spring into action to defend the "purity" Sagan, Carl. 1987. The burden of skepticism. SKEPTICAL INQUIRER 12(1): of science, and that claim, if true, would clearly undermine the 38-46. Scheffler, Israel. 1967. Science and Subjectivity. Indianapolis: Bobbs-Merrill. kind of receptiveness that calls for an impartial assessment of an Slater. John G. (ed.). 1997. Collected Papers of Bertrand Russell Vol 11. London: 21 unorthodox claim in the light of evidence. Routledge. A fine contemporary statement embodying the attitude involved in critical receptiveness and acknowledging the prob­ Notes lem of satisfying both dimensions is found in the writings of 1. SEE SKEPTICAL INQUIRER 24(6): 23-28 November/December 2000. 2. Russell actually speaks of critical undogmatic receptiveness (Russell 1985. the late Carl Sagan. Sagan warned against the danger of skep­ 117). I believe that "critical receptiveness" captures everything essential to the tical criticism degenerating into a debunking of everything idea; if the attitude is critical, it cannot be dogmatic. new and different: ".. . what is called for is an exquisite bal­ 3. Russell's views arc foreshadowed in die writings of Charles S. Peirce (1839-1914), who observed that science is "infested widi over-confident asser­ ance between two conflicting needs: the most skeptical tion" (1.137). Peirce acknowledged that reason can never hope to attain scrutiny of all hypotheses that are served up to us and at the "absolute certainty" (1.141), proclaiming the tallibilist principle that "we can same time a great openness to new ideas. . . . But if you are never be absolutely sure of anything" (1.141). Nevertheless, Peirce retained a conviction th.tt it was vital to be "seized with a great desire to learn the able to exercise only one of these modes, which ever one it is, truth (1.235). and insisted diat genuine inquiry is undertaken "regardless of you're in deep trouble" (Sagan 1987, 41—2). Sagan thought of what die color of diat truth may be" (7.605). References are to volume and para­ these needs as involving a seemingly self-contradictory mix of graph in the Collected Papers of Charles Sanders Peine (Hartshorne. Weiss, and Burks eds. 1931-58). (Cited in subsequent notes as Peirce, Collected Papers.) I attitudes, but somehow justice had to be done to both aspects. am primarily indebted to Susan Haack for her rich and illuminating account of Such conflicting demands seem likely to call for a "tolerance Pcirce's remarks on intellectual virtue (Haack 1998). for ambiguity" in the individual if a finely tuned critical recep­ 4. This is not to say diat open-mindedness and critical dunking will guar­ antee diat truth or objectivity will be achieved, nor that they are invariably desir­ tiveness is not to collapse into a one-sided emphasis on one able, but that there is a presumption in favor of these traits for anyone who rakes aspect to the exclusion of die other. Sagan's perceptive com­ the pursuit of trudi seriously (Hare 1985. 4). ments offer some encouragement that Russell's insights have 5. Russell remarks elsewhere that die scientific oudook is the intellccruaJ counter- pan or »tui is. in the practical sphere, die oudook of liberalism (Russell 1950,28). filtered through to our own day to help illuminate the com­ 6. Here again, rhcre is an interesting parallel widi Peirce, who had spoken of plex nature of die inquiring spirit and skeptical outlook. the scientific spirit (Collected Papers 1.34, 1.55, 1.148), by which he meant to

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/June 2001 43 convey an attitude of mind that takes seriously a commitment 10 the pursuit of ness with criticism: "... the tentative acceptance of a relatively unsupported truth, a determination to root out error, and a readiness to discard faulty views. hypothesis is compatible with acknowledgement of controlling tests to which 7. "Best knowledge" here must be interpreted along such lines as that which future experience will subject it" (Scheffler 1967, 86). appears to be most securely established as knowledge, to preserve the conceptual 15. For an account of Russell's views on critical thinking, see Hare (1999). link l>ctwccn knowledge and truth. 16. To enable us. in Peirce's words, "to perceive what stares us in the face 8. Peirce, in a remarkably similar way, had proposed two qualifications for with a glare that, once noticed, becomes almost oppressive with its insistency" the true scientist: (a) having as the dominant passion in one's soul a determina­ (1.134). Russell (1973b, 91) speaks of going through life "imprisoned in the tion to find out the truth in some area, whatever the color of that truth may be; prejudices derived from common sense." (b) a talent for severely critical thought. Peirce, Collected Papers 7.605. 17. Peirce also makes the point that a scientist will, lor the time being, enter­ 9. Russell made this comment in 1953. and it is possible that his assessment tain and respect a hypothesis which is "wildly incredible," though in due course would differ today in view of further experimentation since that lime, for exam­ it will be "cleared away" if it fails to withstand scrutiny (1.120). ple, he also considered the claims of astrology in the same context, and in that 18. John Passmore (1994, 47) provides an interesting autobiographical case his verdict was that there was so much evidence against astrology that it example of the attitude Russell has in mind when he comments on his own reac­ would be a waste of research funds to look further into the matter. At the same tion to generalizations about art: "My first reaction when I encounter such a time, however, he conceded that if a private researcher were able to establish a generalization ... is to welcome it with enthusiasm. It is a view I very much like. prima facie case in favor of astrology, then the true scientific outlook would But then counterexamples pour into my mind... ." require thai a fresh examination of the evidence be undertaken. 19. Dawkins (1998) believes that an interest in the paranormal reflects the 10. When Russell defends the value of skepticism, he makes it clear that he same sense of wonder and appetite for mystery that is so important in science, rejects extreme forms of skepticism and defends a more moderate, rational form but that audiences are not encouraged to be critical and demand "a certain (Russell 1985.11). minimal standard ot evidence." Peirce was sympathetic to the "wild play of the 11. For an excellent discussion of critical reccptiveness in the context of lit­ imagination" in science, but this did not prevent him trom roundly con­ erary studies, sec Alter (1998). demning "rank charlatans" who try to establish foregone conclusions without 12. By contrast, as Herbert Feigl reminds us, the mind of the extreme skep­ regard to evidence (1.235). tic is "open at bodi ends"—everything floats dirough and nothing sticks (Feigl 20. Josephson shared the Nobel Prize in Physics in 1973. 1976, 74). 21. No doubt Josephson would agree that, in the absence of anything in the 13. Neil Cooper (1994. 462) points out the virtue of intellectual pertinac­ way of serious evidence, as in the claim that some people possess the ability to ity. And Basil Mitchell similarly commends a "principle of tenacity" which remotely-vicw Earth three hundred years in the future, rcceptiveness to such allows a belief to be persevered with long enough for its potentiality to be prop­ claims, in the sense of according them any probability whatever, is indistin­ erly explored (Mitchell 1976, 107). guishable from gullibility (sec Gardner, 1997). Courtney Brown's bizarre claims 14. Scheffler's reminder that acceptance can also mean simply taking an idea alluded to here arc set out in Cosmic Voyage: A Scientific Discovery of seriously enough to look into it further is very useful in reconnecting receptive- Extraterrestrials Visiting Earth New York: Dutton. 1996.

COMMON MYTHS OF CHILDREN'S BEHAVIOR the next time you are teaching your spouse to drive a standard from page 39 transmission car may save some wear and tear! poisoning, hearing impairment, and more. True, ADHD isn't References caused by bad parenting, but children from a chaotic home may Alberto, Paul A., and Anne C. Troutman. 1999. Applied behavior analysis for teachers (5th cd.). Upper Saddle River. NJ: Prentice-Hall. never have learned to focus and pay attention. Making the diag­ American Psychiatric Association. 1994. Diagnostic and statistical manual of nosis based on a good response to Ritalin can be especially dan­ mental disorders (4th ed.). Washington, D.C. gerous, since some of the disorders that mimic ADHD can be Barkley, Russell A. 1998. Attention-Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder A hand­ book for diagnosis and treatment. New York, NY: Guilford Press. made worse (including tic disorders and anxiety disorders). Beitchman, Joseph H.. and Arlene R. Young. 1997. Learning disorders with a In addition, since Ritalin is a stimulant, it can improve per­ special emphasis on reading disorders: A review of the past 10 years. formance in anyone who takes it, and up to 30 percent of chil­ Journal of the Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry 36, no. 8 (August): 1020-32. dren properly diagnosed with ADHD do not have a positive Black. F. William. 1973. Reversal and rotation errors by normal and retarded response (Barkley 1998). The diagnosis of ADHD is as much a readers. Perceptual and Motor Skills 36, no. 3: 895-98, 3. process of ruling everything else out as it is a process of identi­ Copeland, I... ct al. 1987. Pediatricians' reported practices in the assessment and treatment of attention deficit disorders. Journal of Developmental and fying ADHD. We don't really know if there is a physical differ­ Behavioral Disorders 8, no. 4: 191-97. ence in the brain wiring or chemical makeup of a child with Hyman, Irwin. 1990. Reading. Writing and the Hickory Stick. Lexington, MA: ADHD; we just rule out every other possible cause of the inat­ Lexington Books. Jimerson, Shane, et al. 1997. A prospective, longitudinal study of the corre­ tention, impulsivity, and hyperactivity. So if a child gets a diag­ lates and consequences of early grade retention. Journal of School nosis of ADHD from a professional who has only seen the child Psychologyi5.no. 1:3-25. briefly, or if a physician suggests trying Ritalin "just to see if it Milich, Richard, Mark L. Wolraich, and Scott Lindgren. 1986. Sugar and hyperactivity: A critical review of empirical findings. Clinical Psychology works," or if a well-meaning teacher says that she "knows" a Review 6. no. 6:493-513. child has ADHD because she's seen it so many times, a parent Pemberton, Elizabeth, ct al. 1993. Letter reversals produced and recognized by should remain skeptical and request a comprehensive evalua­ dyslexic and nondvslexic children. Biennial Meeting of the Society for Research in Child Development. New Orleans. LA, March. tion. And even if a full evaluation identifies a child as having Shaywitz, Sally E. 1996. Dyslexia. Scientific American November, 98-104. ADHD, a rush to Ritalin isn't necessarily called for. Straus, Murray A., and Mallie J. Paschall. Corporal punishment by mothers The benefits of scientific thinking are not limited to ques­ and child's cognitive development: A longitudinal study, www.unh.edu/ frl/cp5 ljapa.htm. undated. tions that seem scientific. Many aspects of parenting are intu­ Straus, Murray A., D. B. Sugarman, and J. Giles-Sims. 1997. Spanking by itive, but an awareness of what science says about children's parents and subsequent antisocial behavior of children. Archives of behavior can still be helpful. In addition, the principles of sci­ Pediatric and Adolescent Medicine 151: 761-67. Yamamoto, Kaoru. ct al. 1987. Voices in unison: Stressful events in the lives entific thinking illustrated in these examples may be useful of children in six countries. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry 28. elsewhere in daily life. Remembering regression to the mean no. 6: 855-64. •

44 May/June 2001 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER his year marks the 25th anniversary of the Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Para­ T normal (CSICOP) and the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. CSICOP was founded at a conference at SUNY-Buffalo, April 30-May 1, 1976. The first issue of the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER (ini­ tially called The Zetetic came out that fall (Fall/Winter 1976). To mark these anniversaries, over the next several issues, in addi­ tion to our regular content, we plan to publish short twenty-fifth anniversary sections. The essays in these sections are by five persons close to CSICOP — four since day one. Each has an insider's view yet each offers a different, personal perspective. They are from the forthcoming book Skeptical Odysseys (Prometheus, 2001), a collection of original first-person accounts by the world's leading paranormal inquirers, edited by CSICOP founder Paul Kurtz in honor of CSICOP's twenty-fifth anniversary. We'll highlight some of Kurtz's reflections in a future section.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/June 2001 45 25 Years of Science and Skepticism

Kendrick Frazier

First of two parts "Coincident with the Conference," the letter went on, "will be formal announcement of formation of a new interna­ y introduction to the modern skeptical move­ tional 'Committee to Scientifically Investigate Claims of ment came in a letter dated April 15, 1976. Paranormal and Other Phenomena.' This committee is an M I still have it. 1 was then outgrowth of 'Objections to editor of Science News, the week­ Astrology,' which created worldwide ly newsmagazine of science, in attention when released in The Washington. The letter said the Humanist magazine (Sept./Oct. upcoming annual conference of the 1975). The primary thrust of the American Humanist Association, Committee will be to '. . . examine April 30-May 2, in Buffalo "is openly, completely, objectively, and attracting international attention and carefully . . .' questionable claims con­ will surely produce ongoing interest cerning the paranormal and related and controversy." phenomena, and to publish results of I could not have known dien how such research. We earnestly invite your true that statement was. Nor how consideration to covering this impor­ much my going there would change tant series of dialectic discussions." my professional life forever. For die The letter said all the conference's next quarter century (and beyond, I Saturday sessions will center on "The hope), 1 would be happily caught up New Irrationalisms: Antiscience and in a pan of what—for lack of a better Kendrick Frazier Pseudoscience." It listed some of the term—we might call the international participants and included a preprint skeptical movement. I prefer to call it of a formal announcement of the scientific skepticism. Committee and a copy of the "Objections to Astrology" statement, signed by 186 leading scientists, including Kendrick Frazier has been Editor of the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER eighteen Nobel laureates. since 1977, one year after its inception. He is a CSICOP Fellow I was very familiar with that statement. The previous fall, and a member of the Executive Council. From 1971—1977 he we had published it verbatim, in small type, in Science News was Editor of Science News. (108:166, Sept. 13, 1975), together with a short news article,

46 May/June 2001 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER "Science vs. astrology: New battle, old war." The statement Gardner, gendy complaining and wonder­ had immediately generated wide discussion and debate. Said ing if we had changed our policy of covering our article, "Unlike many public utterances by large groups of only genuine science. I knew who Martin ¥*i distinguished scientists, the attack on astrology pulls no Gardner was. A decade earlier a physicist punches. The statement says the belief that the stars can be friend had given me a copy of Gardners s •ht mm1 used to foretell the future has 'no scientific foundation' and Fads and Fallacies in the Name of Science, bluntly labels astrologers 'charlatans.'" We spoke at die time and I had devoured it, fascinated with his with Bart J. Bok, a past president of die American Astro­ keen and amusing insights into the underworld of pseu- nomical Society and lead author of the statement. He told doscientists and crank scientists. And of course he was famous Science News he had become disturbed at the increasing inter­ as Scientific Americans Mathematical Games columnist. After est in astrology among his freshman students at the University getting his letter, I wrote back. I said we hadn't changed our of Arizona and confusion between it and astronomy. policies, we were only trying to respond to readers' interests in The statement had ignited immediate worldwide contro­ finding out what science knew about the topics in question. versy. Our news article at the time concluded: But I told him that was difficult. Editors like me badly needed a central resource to go to—a group of scientists and other Reaction has been mixed. Astrologers experts interested in these issues but understandably were upset, claiming they had been misunderstood. A who, like him, had a critical bent and Washington Star editorial called the could help us evaluate fringe claims. statement "the most futile verbal I had traveled The invitation from Buffalo broadside of recent memory," but con­ seemed to announce that very thing. cluded, "we hope it made the scientists all over and even visited feel better." Bok says most of his mail I flew up to Buffalo and covered has been favorable. Whether any Antarctica this founding conference of what minds have been changed remains to and the South Pole. became the Committee for the be seen. If astrology could survive per­ Scientific Investigation of Claims of secution by the Medieval Church, it is But nothing dealt with likely to outlive another scholarly the Paranormal (CSICOP). It was blast. people's deepest interests and one of the most exhilarating times of emotional passions my life. It was held on die dien- My years at Science News had made and intellectual brand-new Amherst campus of die me interested in the flip side of sci­ State University of New York at ence: pseudoscience. In more general misperceptions as the Buffalo. It was there I first met and terms I was interested in the wide­ topics—the new talked with Paul Kurtz (then a SUNY- spread public interest in fringe-science irrationalisms— Buffalo philosophy professor, editor ideas and the difficulties people have of The Humanist, and co-chairman distinguishing what really is legitimate these scholars with Marcello Truzzi of the fledgling science, especially at its most specula­ and experts were committee), James Randi, Philip J. tive and fantastic, from equally specu­ examining. Klass, L. Sprague de Camp, Ray lative ideas not anchored in any kind Hyman, Truzzi, philosopher Ernest of scientific knowledge or reality. All Nagel, Larry Kusche, and several science editors get letters from readers dozen other prominent participants. with new dieories of the universe, At Science News I had covered scien­ ideas for new inventions that seem to contradict the laws of tific meetings of many scientific organizations—the American physics, and full commentaries on any new speculative ideas Association for the Advancement of Science, American reported in science. Some of diese come from outright cranks Geophysical Union, Geological Society of America, American and can be saved in die cranks file or tossed. But many others Meteorological Society, and others. I had traveled all over and come from very intelligent people who have a lot of good ideas even visited Antarctica and the South Pole. But nodiing dealt but don't quite know enough about how science works to con­ with people's deepest interests and emotional passions and nect diem to real science, to research and write them up prop­ intellectual misperceptions as the topics— the new irra­ erly, and to get them tested and evaluated. In either case some tionalisms—these scholars and experts were examining. I evaluative function is needed. recendy wrote about diis founding conference in some detail The problem is compounded by whatever seems popular in my 8,000-word entry on "CSICOP" in the Encyclopedia of and faddish at the time. In response to readers' requests we had the Paranormal (Prometheus 1996), edited by the late Gordon published three articles in Science News in the mid 1970s that Stein, so won't go into all the substance of it again here. tried to examine in a balanced way some popular claims of die I went back to Washington and eventually wrote a time, one on Transcendental Meditation, one on Uri Geller, three-and-a-third-page Science News cover article, "Science and one on Kirlian photography. But we weren't able to do a very the Parascience Cults," subtitled, "How can the public sepa­ good job at diem, I'm afraid. I got a letter from Martin rate fact from myth in the flood of occultism and

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/June 2001 47 pseudoscientific theories on the scene today? Help is on die pseudoscience ("UFOs, horoscopes, Bigfoot, psychics, and way." We had an artist do a neat cover illustration of a knight other nonsense," March 1978), the Reader's Digest quickly on horseback spearing a multiheaded dragon. The dragon's reprinted it in condensed form in all worldwide editions heads had symbols for psychic-spoonbending, UFOs, astrol­ (July 1978). ogy, and the Bermuda Triangle. The cover type was "Challeng­ That August 1977 meeting had been pivotal for me as well. ing Pseudoscience." It was published May 29, 1976. At it I was formally asked to become editor of CSICOP's jour­ Some of the conference participants familiar with the pas­ nal, then called The Zetetic and subsequently renamed the sions these topics raise had warned me to expect a strong SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, succeeding sociology professor Marcello reaction to whatever I published, but I was not prepared for Truzzi. In those first years it was published only twice a year, and what happened. We received more letters to the editor than I agreed. I have been editor ever since. We went quarterly with about any previous Science News article in memory. Most of the first issue of volume 3, Fall 1978, and bimonthly (and to the writers commented thoughtfully about the issues of sci­ regular magazine format from the original digest size) with the ence and pseudoscience. But some were upset, and some con­ January/February 1995 issue. Although the amount of material sidered the committee's effort an published annually and the workload attempt by science to squelch mys­ have increased over the years, it has tery, imagination, intuition, and been a pleasure. beauty (Paul Kurtz had effectively The SKEPTICAL INQUIRER I feel it a great privilege to be addressed that very issue at the con­ draws upon those with editor all these years of what has ference). Two demanded their sub­ become the central international knowledge, insight, scriptions be canceled. journal of scientific skepticism— Other national publications, and expertise on these the worldwide effort to promote including The New York Times, which issues whatever their scientific inquiry and critical think­ published an excellent two-column formal backgrounds. ing, to evaluate paranormal and article, also had been there and cov­ fringe-science claims of all sorts from It crosses disciplines, ered the conference. a scientific viewpoint, and to serve as So like the Objections to works both inside a forum for informed discussion of Astrology statement itself, the found­ and outside of all relevant issues. ing of CSICOP, although most of the academia, draws upon Psychologists, physicists, philoso­ scientific community was supportive, investigative expertise phers (the three leading disciplines aroused controversy and debate, botli wherever it may be represented), academics in all other thoughtful and heated, among the areas of university life, science teach­ public and in the media. Much the found. It is a truly ers, scientific or investigative journal­ same can be said about CSICOP's democratic, merit-based ists and communicators, and expanding activities ever since. movement. informed citizens from many walks of In August 1977, CSICOP held a life concerned about all these issues news conference in New York City together have formed a strong world­ in conjunction with a meeting of its wide community. They may have a executive council, the first since the wide variety of backgrounds and organizing conference. Here too a pattern was established. diverse views and approaches, but this is where they find a com­ The committee called the NBC television network to task for mon bond, and an outlet for publication and discussion. From credulous pseudodocumentaries on the Bermuda Triangle, the small core group of Executive Council members and found­ Noah's Ark, and UFOs. It criticized the Reader's Digest for ing fellows who helped create the original committee, this articles on parapsychology that, said the committee, pre­ effort has expanded multifold and worldwide over and over. In sented as fact a number of assertions and anecdotes for which fact, the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER draws upon those with knowl­ there was little or no documentation. The New York Times edge, insight, and expertise on these issues whatever their for­ gave the session a full-column article, "Panel Fears Vogue for mal backgrounds, affiliations, memberships, and nationalities. the Paranormal" (August 8, 1977). It noted that the com­ It crosses disciplines, brings the physical and human-based sci­ mittee was appealing to the media of mass communications ences together, works both inside and outside of academia, to provide more balanced and objective treatment of such draws upon investigative expertise wherever it may be found, subjects. It quoted an NBC spokesman about the programs and addresses issues of passionate concern to the public and of criticized: "They are done as entertainment, not as news. significance to science, education, and public policy. It is a truly We're not presenting them as fact." (This was a response that democratic, merit-based movement. Its core unifying values are would become familiar over the years.) The Reader's Digest a respect for the creative and evaluative methods of science, rea­ could not be reached by die Times science reporter for com­ son and rationality, critical thinking and judgment, and free­ ment, but later when I wrote an invited feature article for dom of thought and inquiry, all applied to important issues Smithsonian magazine on CSICOP and its battle against that relate to scientific evidence or scientifically testable claims.

48 May/June 2001 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER When CSICOP and the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER were founded becoming essentially a modern folk myth. 25 years ago here were four of the hot fringe-science topics that That is, until die past few years when clear captivated public and media attention (in addition to the big- evidence was produced diat the recovered three perennials of psychics, UFOs, and astrology): Velikovsky, Roswell debris was actually from a lost assem­ and his fantastic planetary-pinballs, worlds-in-collisions theo­ blage of balloons and instruments launched ries to try to explain catastrophic events in biblical times; Erich from Alamogordo, New Mexico, June 4, von Daniken, and his best-selling chariots-of-die-gods theories 1947. These New York University atmos­ that ancient astronauts from other worlds had built many of pheric sciences experiments were to develop constant-level bal­ Earths ancient monuments; birthdate-based biorhythm theory; loons. These unclassified experiments were in turn pan of a top and the Bermuda Triangle. All these topics were touted in secret project to detect round-die-world acoustic effects of books that sold millions of copies. Notice something about all future Soviet nuclear tests. Once these facts were disclosed and these latter issues. You don't hear much about them anymore. confirmed, the responsible media began to back off from die Is this a victory for reason and rationality? Did skepticism crashed-saucer claim. Nevertheless, the folk myth of a crashed prevail? Not really. saucer at Roswell will survive. Look at some of the hot topics of The point is that specific topics of today: Several scholars in prominent pseudoscience, fringe-science, and die academic positions claim that "intelli­ paranormal do come and go. This is gent design" instead of die creative While the specific especially die case widi diose having a strong, charismatic figure associated processes of evolution is responsible topics come and go, for the intricacies of life. Therapeutic with them. As long as diat larger-dian- Touch, a hands-waving therapy invok­ the more general life personage (Velikovsky was one ing invisible human energy fields manifestations of example, with his silver hair and Old unknown to science, is widely taught fringe-science, Testament demeanor) is still around writing and promoting his cause, die in nursing schools. Magnetic forces are pseudoscience, and assumed to influence health and issue stays alive. Once he or she is human performance, so now "magnet the paranormal gone, it may noticeably diminish, leav­ therapy" has become a big business. persevere. They arise, ing only lesser disciples fighting rear­ Nineteenth-century spiritualism has over and over again, guard actions for years to come to help keep the light alive. Odier topics have been revived in best-selling books and in new guise, with TV programs as modern-day medi­ dieir run in the press and among die ums contend diey can help you com­ new language, public, until boredom sets in and some municate with your long-dead loved new clothing, and other fad belief emerges. ones. Unproven medical remedies, new proponents. But while the specific topics come under die attractive-sounding rubric and go, the more general manifesta­ of alternative medicine, have gained a tions of fringe-science, pseudo- proclaimed public respectability science, and the paranormal perse­ unheard of since die days of snake-oil vere. They arise, over and over again, salesmen. Modern-day numerologists in new guise, with new language, profess to find hidden codes in computer analyses of biblical new clothing, and new proponents. And it is only rational texts. And we may only now be emerging from a decade-long for scientists and skeptics to realize that. Any hope scientists orgy of accusations and recriminations based on die dubious and skeptics may have to abolish from public consciousness idea that accurate "repressed memories" of childhood sexual nonsense and irrationalisms in the name of science is abuse or odier horrible past events can be revived through doomed to failure. hypnosis and questionable kinds of dierapy. The positive appeal of such stories, the understandable And we still have die big-diree: psychics, UFOs, and astrol­ human yearning for having the world die way we want it to be ogy. Widi UFOs, for instance, we went through a credulity rather dian the way it is, die lure of easy cure-all remedies, the explosion in the 1980s and early 1990s. Claims of people being appeal of comforting ideas, the search for significance and abducted by aliens—the hidden memories usually obtained meaning, the desire for some all-powerful presence to guide through hypnosis conducted by UFO-abduction propo­ our lives or reward good and keep the forces of evil at bay, the nents—gained widespread popular acceptance. And we simul­ childlike attraction to New Age magical dunking, the quest for taneously went through an incredible period in which a series mystery and the "unknowable," die hope for everlasting life in of books by UFO proponents and frequent credulous television some form—all these powerful psychological forces and programs all proclaimed a government cover-up of a crashed human needs ensure that new manifestations of paranormal flying saucer near Roswell, New Mexico, in July 1947. Some and fringe-science ideas will always have a welcome reception even claimed alien bodies had been found. These reports gained in people's hearts and minds. increasing visibility and credence in die media and public— Part 2 will appear in our next issue. LJ

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/June 2001 49 Pseudoscience, Nonscience, and Nonsense Twenty-Five Years of CI

James Alcock

s the nineteenth century turned into the twentieth, The public is not concerned that the nursing profession—long men and women of science were confident that in characterized by devoted caregivers who were trained in the A the century to come, universal education and the methods of data-based medicine—is embracing therapeutic growth of science would slowly but touch, which involves no touching at surely eradicate ignorance, supersti­ all, but instead the supposed manipu­ tion, and irrational belief. How could lation of magical energy fields. The they have foreseen that a century later, public does not react with skepticism despite burgeoning enrollments in to the notion that refrigerator mag­ universities and almost unbelievable nets, despite their extremely short advances in science and technology, range, can lessen pain and even heal society would be awash in mysticism, the body. The public does not rise to psychic detectives, Creation Science, challenge claims that psychics can and therapeutic touch, homeopathy, chiro­ have solved crimes that baffled the practic, channelling, UFOs, and police. The public does not wince remote viewing? Had these people a when one celebrity after another talks century ago been given a glimpse of of die importance of astrology or psy­ die world to come, our world of today, chic readers or out-of-body experi­ what sense could they have made of it? ences in his or her life. Indeed, what sense can we make of it? Whither science? The public cannot Despite the central importance of James Alcock get enough of the ultimate products of science and technology in modern science. We rush to stuff our snouts society, the public does not cry out for the testing of homeo­ firmly in the trough of technology, pathic remedies; instead, our trusted pharmaceutical chains expecting each new season to bring us quicker, better, more promote them alongside the products of scientific research. exciting technotoys. We want raster computers, more pervasive Internet links, sooner-rather-than-later cures for the ailments James Alcock is professor of psychology at Glendon College, York that plague us. And yet, rather than honoring science, the pub­ University, Toronto. He is a Fellow, member of the Executive lic is generally disdainful of both science and scientist, while Council, and member of the Board of Directors of CSICOP. welcoming to their bosom the purveyors of magic, shamanism.

50 May/June 2001 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER and supernaturalism. And yet science thrives. It thrives in a cul­ by "breakthroughs" that subsequently ture of its own, to a considerable degree isolated from modern prove to be illusion, and fall into desuetude. popular culture, the culture in which most people live. It is Just as Rhine claimed in the 1930s and 1940s often perceived as too difficult, too arcane, too removed, to be to have established the reality of ESP, so too of interest to most modern people. at the time of CSICOP's birth, Targ and Whither parapsychology? How has parapsychology fared over Puthoff were laying claim to having proven the past twenty-five years? Ironically, this age of magical the psychic powers of Uri Geller, Charles thought and paranormal belief has given very little more succor Honorton was persuaded that his Ganzfeld studies had finally to parapsychology than it has to science. Formal parapsychol­ provided the replicable and sound empirical evidence that had ogy and science are both being pushed aside by an undiscern- so long been sought after, and Robert Jahn's extensive studies at ing public eager to embrace uncritically the next spiritual or Princeton University were supposedly on target to provide con­ paranormal fad, the next "feels great—must be good" belief sys­ vincing evidence of the paranormal. A quarter century later, tem. It is important to make a distinction between formal para­ nothing has changed. psychology and the psychic nonsense and superstition that Wither parapsychology? \s parapsychology going to wither? often operates in its name. While we may "tut tut" the para- Indeed, some well-known parapsychology laboratories have psychologists for their unending quest to put belief in the para­ closed, and one might expect that the paucity of results yielded normal on a scientific basis, we need to recognize that we and by parapsychological research might lead parapsychologists to they have much in common—a shared belief that the scientific give up, to abandon the field. While this has not happened on method, with its insistence on the careful testing of theory a large scale, in recent years, parapsychology has lost many of against experience, hypothesis against data, is the best path its senior scholars—to disillusionment in some cases, but more toward the true understanding of the world around us. We may often to retirement, and to the shuffling off of this mortal coil. differ in our assumptions about the underlying nature of real­ This is not unusual in any field, of course, and this is not to ity, but we generally share a common desire to employ appro­ say that there are not still a number of bright, creative, and priate methods to put our ideas to the test. respectable scholars who are at the forefront—among others, While CSICOP members may be galled by the seemingly people such as Adrian Parker in Sweden, Jessica Utts and John insatiable public appetite for psychic nonsense, it must be even Palmer in the United States, and Robert Morris in Scotland— more galling to parapsychologists, who have labored long and but the ranks arc thinning. Moreover, parapsychology has not hard for recognition of their field, to be ignored by a gullible been blessed, in my view, with regard to replenishment of its public that pursues a beeline to the purveyors of psychic pap. key intellectual assets. There do not seem to be many young What is the state of parapsychological research? Eight years John Beloffs, or Susan Black mores, or Charles Honortons or after CSICOP's founding, I reviewed what had happened in John Palmers or Robert Morrises or Adrian Parkers growing parapsychology during that interval: up in the ranks. However, it is true that there are some signs of life in the Despite the enthusiasm for the new "quantum mechanical" theories, nothing of substance has occurred in parapsychology field. For example: after more than three decades, the in the past eight years. The same old reasons for skepticism— International Journal of Parapsychology will resume publication the lack of public replicability, the problems of defining just (by the Parapsychology Foundation). Some research laborato­ what it is that "paranormal" signifies, the circular reasoning ries—in particular that at the University of Edinburgh—are inherent in explaining departures from chance in terms of a "psi effect," the unfalsifiability that enters the picture whenever it is well established and active. Yet, to the outside observer, formal suggested that the experimenters own characteristics or even parapsychology appears moribund, although it is unlikely to his/her own psi or lack thereof may prevent him/her from ever die out any time soon. Its dedicated scholars seem no closer observing psi, the failure of a century of research to improve the now than they were twenty-five years ago (or for that matter, evidence—are as strong arguments against the psi position today as they were in the past. A new reason for skepticism is a century ago) to establishing a scientific basis for their that, no matter how wild the hypothesis may seem, statistical claimed phenomena. evidence can be adduced that supports the claim; this suggests Whither CSICOP? What have we accomplished and where that artifacts rather than "psi" is the most probable explanation for die statistical deviations reported in parapsychological are we going? Have we made a difference? Sometimes this research.1 question must give one pause, for surely the world is even more open to the paranormal and supernatural than it was Sad as the situation must be for die parapsychologists, noth­ when we began. CSICOP has in fact flourished as an institu­ ing has really changed in die intervening years that would lead tion. Having begun as litde more than a shared idea, it now me to revise this assessment. Parapsychology is no closer to its boasts a permanent headquarters with all the accoutrements, goal of establishing a scientific basis for paranormal phenom­ including an extensive library, as well as satellite offices in sev­ ena than it was back then, or indeed, than it was even a century eral cities. Moreover, CSICOP has spawned scores of like- ago. Oh yes—there are recurrent claims that new research is minded organizations in many countries of the world. The finally demonstrating the reality of extrasensory perception or SKEPTICAL INQUIRER continues to grow in popularity. precognition or psychokinesis, but that is nothing new. Regional skeptic groups have been growing in number Throughout its history, parapsychology has been characterized throughout North America and in other parts of the world.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/June 2001 51 Other skeptics organizations with their associated publications The joy of finding people who share your view. Before have also come into being—the James Randi Educational CSICOP was founded, I had already been involved in Foundation and the Skeptics Society being the most notable. researching the growing belief in the paranormal. Such an CSICOP created an environment that encouraged the estab­ interest was all but unheard of within psychology—the vast lishment of other such organizations. majority of psychologists took no interest in ESP and other What has CSICOP accomplished? The world is quite a such phenomena, for most simply did not believe that they different place than it was twenty-five years ago when it existed. I sought the company of other researchers who might comes to information about the paranormal. At that time, it share my interest. Parapsychologists aside, there were very few was very difficult to find sources of information that pro­ or them. Reading the sparse critical literature on the subject of vided critical analysis of parapsychological/psychic claims. parapsychology brought me into correspondence with Given the burgeoning renewal of paranormal belief which Professor Marcello Truzzi, a sociologist at Eastern Michigan began in the 1960s, even many people immersed in science University. It was a very positive experience to find someone had difficulty in gainsaying die claims of psychic researchers. who shared my fascination about the attraction that the para­ CSICOP was founded because there was no voice in opposi­ normal has for so many people. tion to the overwhelmingly pro-paranormal informational It was Professor Truzzi who invited me to a meeting at the deluge presented by the media. Things were so bad in terms University at Buffalo in 1976 that was to be held in conjunction of one-sided information that I can recall some individual with the annual meeting of the American Humanist Society. scientists telling me of the need for physics to develop a the­ This meeting was to bring together a number of people who a oretical accommodation for psychic abilities that had appar­ shared a concern about die unbridled proliferation of belief in ently been verified by parapsychologisrs! CSICOP and The the paranormal, a proliferation fueled by one-sided media cov­ Zetetic, which was to evolve into the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, erage. This event turned out to be the founding meeting of CSI­ began to change all that. For the first time in history, there COP. It was here that I first met the people who were to become was a publication and an organization dedicated to critical the giants of CSICOP—Paul Kurtz, Ray Hyman, Phil Klass, examination of claims of the paranormal. James Randi, and my idol from my undergraduate days as a CSICOP has provided a powerful magnet for people who physics student, Martin Gardner. For someone like myself, who are interested in strange and bizarre phenomena. Before CSI­ had felt—at least before coming into contact with Truzzi—quite COP, the only avenue to pursue, if one was interested in such isolated and alone with regard to my skeptical interest in the phenomena, was that offered by parapsychology. When I was paranormal, it was a heady experience to meet so many power­ nine or ten years old, having been fascinated in reading about ful advocates of a viewpoint similar to my own. psychic phenomena, I decided that I wanted to grow up to Of course, Paul Kurtz provided the energy and foresight be a parapsychologist—not surprising, since the only people and determination that made CSICOP what it is today. One who took any interest in actually researching such phenom­ cannot help but be impressed by the man's ability to turn aca­ ena were parapsychologists. Now, when people are drawn to demic "wouldn't it be great" into reality. And almost as soon as the paranormal, there is an abundance of information writ­ I met him, I came to appreciate his almost legendary penchant ten from a skeptical perspective that can serve to satisfy their for snap decisions—as I followed behind Kurtz and Truzzi and curiosity while at the same time promoting an interest in some others as they strode down a hallway, Paul turned to me mainstream science. I daresay that some contemporary and asked me where I was from. When I said "York University young researchers (I will not name names, but the astute in Toronto," he replied, "Great, we need international repre­ reader may have an idea about to whom I refer) who sentation—we'll make you a Fellow." And so a Fellow I approach the testing of paranormal claims from a skeptical became. Thus began my acquaintance with Paul Kurtz and starting point may well have become mainstream parapsy­ with CSICOP. chologists had not CSICOP begun to provide a source of From diat first meeting in 1976, the Committee for die critical information. Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal emerged, So, I do believe that CSICOP has made an indelible mark its name a committee-produced appellation that has plagued on the world—a modest mark, perhaps, but one that serves as us ever since. Worse, the name gave us the acronym CSICP, a beacon to those who really want to understand the weird and which was used officially for some time, but it was so hard to wacky experiences that so many people report, without jump­ pronounce that the "O" of "oP was inserted to produce CSI­ ing to a supernatural/paranormal conclusion. COP. Unfortunately, this produced an unintentional Happy twenty-fifth, CSICOP. homonym, "PSI-COP," and to this day, some of our oppo­ Thank you for the memories. nents cannot be dissuaded from the belief that this was And of course, what is the twenty-fifth anniversary wirJiout planned. Slowly, CSICP, or CSICOP, began its struggle to party favors and reminiscences? You'll have to go to Barry Karr bring to die public a critical, science-based perspective on the lor any party favors that CSICOP may have to give away, but paranormal. Through The Zetetic, edited by Marcello Truzzi, I can offer you some reminiscences. For diose of us who have which became the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, edited by Ken Frazier, been fortunate enough to be at or near the CSICOP front CSICOP began to make its presence felt. And just as I had lines, there are many, many memories. Here are a few of mine. been overwhelmed to meet so many like-minded people at

52 May/June 2001 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER that founding meeting, so too were many of the early readers "Have you ever slopped pigs?" He had thrilled to realize that they were not alone in trying to bring spent four years on a pig farm during Mao's rationality to the discussion of the paranormal. Cultural Revolution, and wasn't going to Rationalization in the defense of paranormal belief. At risk anything that might put him at odds that same founding meeting, given my lifelong interest in con­ with the powers that be, and thereby risk juring, it was a thrill to watch a stage performance by James being sent back to the farm. Indeed, these Randi. In those days, Uri Geller was in his heyday, and a good girls were held in high esteem by some part of Randi's presentation was the duplication of Geller's very high officials in China, including the head of the tricks—showing that the same effects could be produced by Atomic Energy commission, a renowned scientist, who conjuring, without revealing how. Surpassing my considerable opined that China had given four great gifts to the world— appreciation of Randi's legerdemain was my astonishment at paper, gunpowder, the compass, and movable type—and the intervention made by a professor from the University of now they had a fifth gift to give, these psychic girls. Denying Buffalo, who shouted at Randi after he had performed yet their powers might merit being sent back to the farm. When another Geller "miracle" and accused we tested the girls in their home­ Randi of being a fraud. Randi shot town of Xian, they were brought to back with "Yes indeed, I'm a trickster, join us at a banquet that had been I'm a cheat, I'm a charlatan, that's organized for us. Following the what I do for a living. Everything I've meal, we were all taken to something done here was by trickery." The inter­ CSICOP that was very surprising in 1988, a locutor was not amused: he continued was founded Xian discotheque. The scene that to shout at Randi, despite his wife's developed was almost surreal: efforts to get him to sit down, and because Drinking beer in a discotheque in yelled, "That's not what I mean. there was no the midst of traditional Xian as these You're a fraud because you're pretend­ demure "psychic girls" transformed ing to do these things through voice in opposition before our eyes into ordinary young trickery, but you're actually using to the adolescents, reveling in and dancing psychic powers and misleading us to the loud Western music, while by not admitting it." This was my overwhelmingly their decorous chaperones watched introduction to the powerful process pro-paranormal with apparent disdain. of rationalization that traps even The power of personal experi­ well-educated people who feel the informational deluge ence. Since the history of CSICOP is need to defend a deeply held belief in presented by inextricably tied to Paul Kurtz, those the paranormal. who wish to study and understand A trip to China. Our trip to the media. CSICOP need to some extent study China in 1988 was one of my per­ and understand Kurtz. Although sonal CSICOP highlights, of course. opponents have often viewed him Along with Kurtz, Randi, Frazier, otherwise, Paul Kurtz has not been Klass, and Karr, I had the privilege of rigid and close-minded about the participating in both a lecture tour of paranormal. Indeed, in the early days Beijing, Xian, and Shanghai, and in the testing of children of CSICOP, on more than one occasion he was heard to tell a who could supposedly read with their armpits and buttocks, radio interviewer that, while there is no evidence for the vast as well in the testing of some Qi Gong masters. This trip has majority of paranormal claims, there was one exception— already been well documented,-' but there are many stories telepathy, and tlien he would relate how he and his wife often that did not make it into the article. Some of die memories knew what each other was about to say, and tiiat this might that come to mind that were not recorded in that account reflect ESP. Ray Hyman and I two or three times put on our include: (1) Being in a shop with Randi, who showed a group psychology professor hats and explained to Paul how it is that of young children how to make a pencil wiggle so that it normal psychological processes are likely, from time to time, to appears to be rubbery, and then the next day, while taking a produce such experiences for all of us, without any involve­ stroll with him, hearing "Landi, Landi"—and turning to see ment of ESP. Kurtz soon changed his expressed view, but this a couple of children smiling as each held up a pencil, wig­ story is testimony both to die fact diat he did not approach the gling it just as Randi had shown them the day before. Ah, paranormal witli his mind rigidly made up a priori, and to the how fame spreads. (2) Talking, through a translator, with a powerful impact of personal experience of seemingly paranor­ psychologist who had not only observed the same psychic mal events. girls who we were going to test, but who had employed a hid­ The power of experience that violates our worldview. den videocamera that revealed their cheating. When I asked, One day, during a CSICOP conference held in London in "In that case, why do you need us to test them?" he asked. 1985, most of the members of the Executive Council were at

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/June 2001 53 lunch in a private dining room, and Randi was amusing us note. Professor Bunge asked them if they really believed that with some impromptu table magic. The waiter, a man with a deep inside every man is an instinctive desire to murder his heavy Portuguese accent, began to pay close attention to father. They did indeed agree, and then Professor Bunge Randi's performance, and at one point remarked to Randi, turned to a young man at the edge of the circle, and asked, "That is amazing." Randi beamed with pride at this com­ "So, do you want to murder mc?" To which the man replied mendation, and then the waiter added, "There's only one with a smile, "Yes indeed, sometimes!" Professor Bunge then man I've ever seen do anything more impressive than that." identified the man, a professor of physics at the University of Randi, who appeared slightly annoyed by this qualification Mexico, as his own son. of praise, asked, "And who might that be?" to which the I have many other happy memories of CSICOP: waiter replied, "A Mr. Uri Geller, who stayed at this hotel last • My first invitation to an Executive Council meeting at year." Oh boy! The gauntlet had been thrown down! Randi Phil Klass's apartment in Washington in 1978. rolled up his sleeves, and magic enveloped us. Objects • Going for runs with Ray Hyman at just about every appeared from nowhere, minds were read, the hands of CSICOP meeting or conference—and especially at the watches moved backward; the waiter was appropriately over­ conference in St. Vincent, Italy, where nuns, dressed in whelmed. However, that was not the end of the story. About traditional habits with formidable headgear—laughed an hour after lunch, I happened to pass through the lobby, and laughed and pointed at us as we ran up the steep when the hotel manager approached me and asked if I had road past their convent, and they laughed just as hard been at the lunch where the magic was done. When I indi­ when we came down again. They don't see many joggers cated that indeed I had been in attendance, he implored me in these parts! to help him deal with one of his waiters. He led me to the • Sharing adjacent seats on a Chinese airliner with Phil kitchen, and there in a corner sat the Portuguese waiter, Klass, at that time senior editor at Aviation Week, who extremely distraught. The waiter told me that he had never explained that the airplane that we were on was a copy of seen such things happen, and that this must have involved a Boeing 737—except that the Chinese didn't bother tampering with spirits or even demons, and he was very, very with all the duplication that Boeing builds in for backup frightened. Despite my training as a psychologist, I was safety. No backup circuits, he said. Thrilled to learn this unable to calm him down, or to dissuade him from his belief at 30,000 feet, I asked him why he was willing to fly on that he had witnessed supernatural dabblings. It was only an airplane that had no backups if any system failed. He when I began to praise Randi's virtues as a magician that he smiled that impish smile of his and said, "Well, this air­ began to lighten up. But then, he wavered—he had seen craft we're on has been flying for years, and it hasn't magicians before, and magicians "can't do those things." crashed yet, has it?" Only when I heaped even more praise on Randi, telling him • The long rides from Vancouver to Eugene, Oregon, with that Randi is no ordinary magician, but "one of the best Barry Beyerstein, and once there, the wonderful times I magicians in the world," did he really start to soften. Finally, have had as one of the team, along with Barry, Jerry he said, "Well . . . maybe if he's one of the best magicians in Andrus, Loren Pankratz, Wally Sampson, and others at the world, it could have just been trickery." He then calmed Ray Hyman's annual Skeptics' Toolbox workshop. down, and the event was over. I had received a memorable • Being at a private lunch during a CSICOP conference— lesson in the ability of inexplicable experience to produce not lunch really, but hamburger and lots of magic—with powerful emotion. Hyman, Randi, Andrus, Penn and Teller. . . quite a Pockets of irrationality. Another incident comes to mind thrill to watch magicians "jam." that relates to our ability to sustain pockets of irrationality • The list goes on. . . . amongst our beliefs, while all the while persuading ourselves In fact, the greatest thing about having been fortunate that we are rational people. This occurred during a CSICOP enough to be deeply involved in CSICOP has been the won­ meeting in Mexico City in 1989. Professor Mario Bunge had derful people that it has brought into my life: Ray Hyman, just delivered an address in which he surveyed the subject of Barry Beyerstein, Paul Kurtz, James Randi, Phil Klass, Ken irrationality, moving from belief in the paranormal to such Frazicr, Lee Nisbet, Barry Karr, Amardeo Sarma, Sue topics as psychoanalysis, which he argued is also pseudo- Blackmore, Mario Mendez, the late George Abell, Jerry scientific in its nature. He was not aware that a substantial Andrus, Eugenie Scott, Joe Nickell, Bela Scheiber, and so part of this university audience was made up of psychoana­ many, many others. lysts. After the talk was over, I recall listening to a heated dis­ So, thanks CSICOP, and happy birthday, and here's to the cussion in English at the back of the hall. Professor Bunge was next twenty-five! surrounded by a number of psychoanalysts, all happy to applaud any attack on parapsychology, but all quite offended Notes by the criticism of psychoanalysis. It was fascinating to see so 1. J.E. Alcock. 1984. "Parapsychology* Past Eight Years: A Lack-of-progrcss clearly something that is no doubt true of all of us—we can Report." SKEPTICAL INQUIRER 8 (1984): 312-20. turn off our critical skepticism when dealing with some of our 2. Kurtz, P.. J.E. Alcock, K. Frazier. B. Karr, P.J. Klass. J. Randi. "Testing Psi Claims in China: Visit of CSICOP Delegation." SKEPTICAL INQUIRER 12 own favorite beliefs. The interchange ended on a humorous (1988): 364-75. D

54 May/June 2001 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Nonsense," how a committee of skep­ July 13 1976 tics (CSICOP) is challenging paranor­ CSICOP establishes a Canadian sec­ 1980 April 30-May 1 mal claims. tion. "Skeptical CSICOP founded at conference on "The Inquirer New Irrationalisms: Antiscience and Fall Pseudoscience," SUNY-Buffalo. 1978 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER increases publication c February frequency from semi-annual to quarterly. CSICOP calls NBC response to CSICOP complaints about "Exploring Fall the Unknown" "unacceptable," FCC reports preliminary decision reject­ requests presentation of contrasting ing CSICOP complaint against NBC's viewpoint. "Exploring the Unknown": CSICOP appeals January Dec. 5-6 'Skeptical SKEPTICAL INQUIRER (Winter 1979-80) pub­ CSICOP meets in Washington, D.C.. lishes four-part special report on meets with staff of House Science and claimed "Mars Effect," addressing a Technology Committee, praises ABC-TV controversy that began before CSICOP Fall for network special "The Supernatural: was founded and will continue for sev­ Vol. 1 No. 1 of The Zetetic the SKEPTICAL Fact, Fiction, or Fantasy?" in which eral years more. INQUIRER) published. CSICOP members participated. 1981 1977 1979 May Aug. 9 April January CSlCOP's fifth anniversary. Paul Kurtz The Zetetic renamed the SKEPTICAL First meeting of CSICOP Executive CSICOP lodges complaints against NBC- notes progress and challenges. Council, New York City. It calls upon INQUIRER starting with Vol. 2 No. 2. TV for program "The Amazing World of NBC television for balance in its treat­ Spring/Summer 1978. Psychic Phenomena." May ment of paranormal, files complaint CSICOP statement urges police against April April 27 against Reader's Digest for distortions accepting claims of so-called "police Chairman Paul Kurtz announces that on alleged psychic phenomena, files CSICOP files appeal in U.S. Court of psychics." complaint with FCC against NBC CSICOP has generated "tremendous Appeals against the FCC's rejection of for total bias in 90-minute quasi- enthusiasm" among scientists, schol­ committee's complaint against NBC October 22-24 ars, media, and the public. CBS and documentary "Exploring the Unknown." under the Fairness Doctrine for CSICOP Executive Council approves ABC have produced programs present­ "Exploring the Unknown." policy statement on sponsoring Dec. 12 ing committee's viewpoints. research, testing individual claims, and Time publishes 'Attacking the New

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/June 2001 55 conducting investigations, pointing out University of Colorado. Boulder. Theme: that organizations, as such, rarely con­ 1984 "Science and Pseudoscience." Keynote 1988 duct research. The first two of seven address: Stephen Jay Gould. March 21-April 3 Nov. 9 points: "1. CSICOP. as a body, does not CSICOP delegation visits China, lectures directly engage in the testing of psy­ CSICOP. in news conference at in Beijing, Xian, Shanghai, tests Qigong chics, research on paranormal phe­ California Academy of Sciences, calls masters plus children and others nomena, or investigations on related on newspapers to carry a disclaimer on alleged to have psychic powers. matters. 2. But CSICOP does encourage their astrology columns. Mails state­ such research by its individual mem­ ment, material to 1.200 U.S. newspa­ Sept. 1 bers and qualified others." pers two weeks later. CSICOP wins first (and till-then only) court case brought against it. In U.S. District Court in Hawaii plaintiff Gharith 1982 Pendragon loses on all contentions and is ordered to pay the CSICOP defen­ Spring SCIENTIFIC dants fees, costs, and earlier-imposed AMERICAN CSICOP celebrates 10th anniversary. SI sanctions. marks it with special essays by CSICOP Fellows such as Isaac Asimov and Carl Sagan.

Fall Nov. 9-10 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER announces it is CSICOP Conference "Paranormal expanding scope to include topics not SI Beliefs: Scientific Facts and Fictions" necessarily related directly to the para­ February held at Stanford University. Sessions on normal and pseudoscience. Scientific American publishes Meta- "Space-Age Paranormal Claims," "The magical Themas article by Douglas Psychic Arms Race," and "Psychic Claims." Keynoter: Sidney Hook. 1987 Hofstadter about SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, con­ Nov. 3-4 trasting its type of inquiry with that of Feb. 1 December CSICOP 1988 Conference "The New National Enquirer, SI circulation subse­ Carl Sagan publishes "The Fine Art of Age: A Scientific Evaluation," held at SKEPTICAL INOUIRER expands pages to quently leaps. Baloney Detection," in Parade maga­ Hyatt Regency O'Hare, Chicago. include 20 percent more editorial mate­ zine, with a laudatory sidebar about Keynote speaker: Douglas Hofstadter. June rial; circulation about 17,000. CSICOP and SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. SI circu­ Three simultaneous sessions at times. First approved local chapter of CSICOP lation rises as a result. established. Bay Area Skeptics. December 1985 April 3-4 Dec. 9-10 June 28-29 CSICOP publishes statement "CSICOP, CSICOP Annual Conference, Pasadena, Groups, and Spokespersons" about CSICOP International Conference. CSICOP Executive Council meets in California. Symposia on extraterrestrial relationships with groups listed in SI "Investigation and Belief," held at intelligence, animal language, medical Atlanta. Gives Martin Gardner "In and who may or may not speak for Praise of Reason Award." holds news University College. London. CSICOP controversies. Simultaneous sessions. CSICOP. conference on psychics and "psychic Executive Council holds joint meeting with Keynote speaker: Carl Sagan, "The detectives." sets initial guidelines on French group in Paris, presents news con­ Burden of Skepticism." local groups. ference with Science et Vie magazine. 1989 Oct. 20-23 Fall First in a series of CSICOP Seminars 1983 CSICOP announces 20th Anniversary April "Skeptical Inquiry: A Critical Fund, a major capital fund-raising cam­ Examination of Parapsychology." held at George Abell, Paul Kurtz, and Marvin paign, B.F. Skinner, honorary chairman. SUNY-Buffalo, with James Alcock and Zelen publish a reappraisal of the "Mars Ray Hyman as faculty; 3-credit certifi­ Effect" experiments (SI Spring 1983). cate of achievement awarded upon completion. Oct. 28-29 CSICOP holds first international con­ M December Fall ference since its founding, returning to SKEPTICAL INQUIRER announces a perma­ SKEPTICAL INQUIRER announces new, the SUNY-Buffalo campus. Theme: nent expansion lo 112 digest-size pages expanded effort to give more attention "Science, Skepticism, and the per quarterly issue. Ten-year index pub­ to science, critical inquiry, and science Paranormal." Seven symposia. Com­ lished. education in addition to investigations mentator Piet Hein Hoebens calls it of paranormal claims. New graphic CSICOP's "coming of age." design implemented. April 25-27 CSICOP 1986 conference held at

56 May/June 200! SKEPTICAL INQUIRER April 17-19 settlement and first payment by Geller to 1990 CSICOP holds "Magic for Skeptics" 1993 CSICOP of $40,000 of up $120,000. March 30-April 1 seminar, in Lexington. Kentucky, taught April Payment is part of settlement agreement 1990 CSICOP Conference, Washington. by Joe Nickell and Robert A. Baker. CSICOP announces plans for creation of to a court-described "frivolous complaint" D.C.. -Critical Thinking. Public Policy, a Center for Inquiry research library. made by Geller against CSICOP. The set­ and Science Education" Keynote April tlement ends five-year legal battle. June speaker: Gerard Piel Banquet speaker: SI reports that forty-two daily news­ Richard Berendzen. papers are now running CSICOP- In "Our Wide and Fertile Field" (SI. recommended disclaimers with their Summer 1993), Editor discusses recent December astrology columns. addition to CSICOP'sstatemen t of mis­ CSICOP announces construction has sion: 'It also promotes science and sci­ started on a building, the Center for April entific inquiry, critical thinking, science Inquiry, to house CSICOP and SKEPTICAL CSICOP announces establishment of education, and the use of reason in INQUIRER (as well as Free Inquiry on a legal defense fund to help battle harass­ examining important issues." site adjacent to SUNY-Buffalo Amherst ing lawsuts filed against skeptics. campus June 14 June 9 June CSICOP wins lawsuit in Maryland. In "Freedom of Scientific Inquiry Under Federal jury in Baltimore finds CSICOP New CSICOP headquarters — 15.000- 1991 Siege" (SI Summer 1992), Paul Kurtz is not liable for statements made by square-foot Center for Inquiry educa­ May 3-5 reports on another Geller lawsuit. James Randi about Eldon Byrd. tional and administrative center — is dedicated adjacent to SUNY-Buffalo 1991 CSICOP Conference at Claremont June Amherst, NY, campus. Steve Allen. Hotel, Berkeley/Oakland Hills. Nobel laureate Herbert Hauptman, Time's California. Sessions on controversies in U.S. District Court in Washington. D.C., 1994 hypnosis, subliminal pseudoscience. throws out Uri Geller lawsuit against Leon Jaroff. many others participate. Spring pop psychology, catastrophism and evo­ CSICOP, imposes sanctions against July 7 lution, urban legends, and teaching crit­ Geller for prosecuting the case. Construction begins on Phase II of head­ ical thinking. Keynote speaker: Donald quarters campus for CSICOP and Center for Inquiry-West, CSICOP's West C. Johanson, In Search of Our Origins." Aug. 20-24 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER in Amherst, N.Y. Coast branch office, opens in rented CSICOP-sponsored "The Skeptics quarters in Los Angeles. June Toolbox" annual workshop series initi­ June 24-26 CSICOP announces newly designed, ated, at University of Oregon, with fac­ 1994 CSICOP Conference. "The 1996 expanded, subscription-only quarterly ulty members Ray Hyman, Barry Psychology of Belief." held in Seattle. Skeptical Briefs newsletter. Beyerstein, Loren Pankratz, Jeff Sessions on the belief engine, how we Mayhew. and Jerry Andrus. fool ourselves, UFOs, unreliability of September memory, conspiracy theories, near- death experiences, influencing court­ CSICOP announces that Phase 1 of its room beliefs. Keynote address: Carl new headquarters complex, the Center Sagan. "Wonder and Skepticism." for Inquiry, is now fully occupied and functional. September

December SKEPTICAL INQUIRER adds subtitle. "The Paul Kurtz, in "On Being Sued: The Magazine for Science and Reason," Chilling of Freedom of Expression" |SI publishes final digest-sized, quarterly Winter 1992), describes lawsuits by issue (Fall 1994). Eldon Byrd and Uri Geller against James Oct. 16-18 Dec. 9 Randi and CSICOP and the "difficult and perilous situation the skeptical move­ 1992 CSICOP Conference. "Fairness. Uri Geller loses appeal of sanctions ment now faces" as a result. Fraud, and Feminism: Culture Confronts awarded CSICOP by district court; Court Science." held in Dallas. Sessions on of Appeals for District of Columbia multicultural approaches to science, affirms the sanctions. 1992 gender issues in science and pseudo- science, fraud in science, crashed saucers, and the paranormal in China. 1995 June 20-23 Keynote speaker Richard Dawkins. January First World Skeptics Congress and SKEPTICAL INQUIRER publishes first issue in December 20th Anniversary CSICOP meeting. full-size magazine format, increases fre­ "Science in the Age of (Misinfor­ SKEPTICAL INQUIRER becomes available at quency to bimonthly (Vol. 19. No. 1. mation," held at SUNY-Buffalo. Keynote quality newsstands January/February 1995). speaker Stephen Jay Gould Conf­ March 6 erence Address: Leon Lederman. Lunch speaker John Maddox. Major sessions Geller case ends: CSICOP announces court

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/June JOOl 57 skepticism worldwide, plus many (Januaiv/Eebruary 2000): James Randi, 1997 concurrent sessions. Keynote speaker: Martin Gardner, Carl Sagan, Paul Kurtz. January Elizabeth Loftus. Ray Hyman, Isaac Asimov, Bertrand CSICOP becomes shareholder in TV net­ Russell, Harry Houdini. Albert Einstein. Fall works to provide leverage for its criti­ March 20-24 cism of their marketing of fringe science CSICOP and University of Hertford­ and pseudoscience. shire, U.K.. announce creation of the American Physical Society spon­ CSICOP Research Scholarship to fund a sors special session on "The Skep­ Ph.D. student for three years to carry tical Inquirer: The New Paranatural out research related to psychology and Paradigm." an examination of pseudo- on mass media, anti-science, The X- skepticism. science, at its Minneapolis meeting. Files, and parapsychology, plus triple- concurrent sessions on multiple topics. Nov. 14 Nov. 10-12 CSICOP and Council for Media Integrity Third World Skeptics Congress — host conference "That's Entertainment! renamed Skeptics World Convention III Hollywood, the Media, and the Super­ — at University of Sydney, Australia, natural" in Los Angeles. Steve Allen is rousing success. Co-sponsored by speaks out against loss of cultural stan­ CSICOP and Australian Skeptics. Forty Jan. 9 dards in the media. "Candle in the Dark" speakers. CSICOP's Council for Media Integrity award given to PBS TV series Scientific November holds first meeting, in Los Angeles, with American Frontiers. co-chairmen Glenn T. Seaborg and Young Skeptics Program inaugurated by Steve Allen, blasts networks for dis­ CSICOP on its Web site. torted treatments of science. 1999 June Feb. 26-28 Asteroids Skepticus 6630 and Kurtz Nov. 19 CSICOP co-hosts national conference 2001 6629 named for CSICOP and its founder Public television airs Scientific "Science Meets 'Alternative Medicine,'" Paul Kurtz in honor of their contributions American Frontiers episode "Beyond Warwick Hotel, Philadelphia. to science education and skepticism on Science." hosted by Alan Alda. skep­ CSICOP's 20th anniversary. tically examining dowsing, "alien autopsies," graphology, a supposed new energy force, and therapeutic touch, guided by four CSICOP Fellows.

1998 January March Permanent building for Center for CSICOP's new Web site, www.csicop.org, Inquiry-West — West Coast office March 1 is named among the World Wde Web's for CSICOP and Council for An asteroid is named Klass 7277 after Secular Humanism — purchased in July top 500 Web sites (and top ten science sites) by computing magazine Wome PC Philip J. Klass. veteran Aviation Week Los Angeles. In "CSICOP at Twenty" (SI July/August journalist and longtime CSICOP Fellow 1996) Paul Kurtz reflects on the origins, and UFO subcommittee chairman, February growth, role, and challenges of CSICOP for his skeptical evaluations of The Klass Files — electronic texts of over its "exhilarating" two decades. sensational claims about UFOs. It back issues of Philip J. Klass's Skeptics joins asteroids Kurtz, Gardner, Randi, UFO Newsletter — placed on CSICOP July and Skepticus (named in 1996 after Web site. Report of second CSICOP delegation to CSICOP). China (June 1995). examining tradi­ t- I March tional Chinese medicine and pseudo- July/August SKEPTICAL INQUIRER index, foi entire science in China, published. SKEPTCAI INQUIRER publishes its first-ever magazine from Vol. 1 No. 1 into single-subject issue, on Science & 2001. completed and placed on July 23-26 Religion. Response is overwhelmingly CSICOP Web site. Second World Skeptics Congress. positive. April 30-May 1 "Armageddon and the Prophets of Doomsday." held at University 25th anniversary of CSICOP. of Heidelberg, Germany. Plenary 2000 sessions on millennium proph­ January — Timeline compiled by ecies, natural disasters, anti-science Ten outstanding skeptics of the twentieth Kendrick Frailer and postmodernists, and scientific century featured in SKEPTICAL INQUIRER D

58 May/June 2001 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER BOOK REVIEWS

Science and Politics, Oil and Water

SCOTT O. LILIENFELD

The New Know-Nothings: The Political Foes of the Scientific Study of Human Nature. By Morton Hunt. Transaction Publishers, New Brunswick, New Jersey, 1999. ISBN 0-7658-0497-2. 404 pp. Paperback, $29.95.

he relationship between science and Hunt spares neither the extreme servatives to halt research on adoles­ and politics has long been an political left nor the extreme political cents' sexual activity may forestall the uneasy one. Although the right in his trenchant analysis. In some identification of behaviors that place T cases, Hunt maintains, these attacks Baconian view of scientists as detached individuals at heightened risk for and impartial observers of the natural have resulted in die suppression of good human immunodeficiency virus infec­ world is taken seriously by few science, the promotion of bad science, tion. Personal threats against Elizabeth researchers today, most philosophers of Loftus, Harold Lief, and others who THE NEW KNOW-NOTHINGS j 1 have expressed skepticism concerning science agree that science works best THE NEW KNOW-NOTHINGS ; when investigators are free to pursue all | THE NEW KNOW-NOTHINGS • the widespread existence of recovered questions in an unfettered fashion. THE NEW KNOW-NOTHINGS memories of child abuse may discourage Absolute scientific objectivity, although an open discussion of suggestive thera­ probably a myth, is a goal to which peutic techniques that can elicit false researchers should aspire. When outside recollections of early trauma. considerations, such as political values Among the diverse areas of research and exigencies, intrude on the day-to­ examined by Hunt are genetic influ­ day operations of science, the capacity ences on intelligence and violence, sex of investigators to openly investigate sci­ differences in mathematical and spatial entific questions is often hindered. ability, the diagnostic validity of pre­ In his provocative book The New menstrual syndrome, the existence of Know-Nothings: The Political Foes of the recovered memories of child abuse, the THE NEW KNOW-NOTHINGS Scientific Study of Human Nature, soci­ efficacy of controlled drinking as a treat­ THE NEW KNOW-NOTHINGS: ologist Morton Hunt argues that the THE NEW KNOW-NOTHINGS I ment for alcoholism, the validity of the last several decades have witnessed an THE NEW KNOW-NOTHINGS I polygraph ("lie detector") test, and the THE NEW KNOW-NOTHINGS \ success of needle exchange programs for increasing breach of the unsteady wall ^THE NEW KNOW-NOTHINGS separating science from politics. _ THE NEW KNOW-NOTHINGS I intravenous drug abusers. In each of Although Hunt's book bears implica­ these cases, individuals with certain tions for all domains of science, his or both. Although Hunt's book is not a sociopolitical agendas have attempted to principal focus is on the social sciences disquisition on pseudoscience per se, it suppress research findings that are not to of psychology, sociology, and anthro­ bears significant implications for the their liking. pology. For it is these scientific dissemination of questionable scientific In a number of cases, research­ domains that have most often yielded findings. As Hunt points out, concerted ers' careers and livelihoods have been answers distasteful to those with cer­ efforts to place limits on the collection tain political views. and analysis of controversial data may Scott O. Lilienfeld is an associate professor The barrage of attacks on social sci­ lead to incomplete or erroneous conclu­ of psychology at Emory University in ence research have originated from both sions regarding human behavior. For Atlanta and a SKEPTICAL INQUIRER ends of the American political spectrum, example, vigorous efforts by some con­ Consulting Editor.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/June 2001 59 BOOK REVIEWS threatened or damaged. For example, exacted a heavy price on social science from unpublished studies conducted by educational psychologist Arthur Jensen research. A swelling minority of the test publishers themselves. Nor does and personality psychologist J. Phillippe extreme liberals and conservatives have he note that some integrity test publish­ Rushton have been the repeated targets mounted attacks on research projects ers have been less than cooperative with of intimidation for their research on the examining politically incendiary prospective researchers who wish to sub­ genetic basis of the black-white IQ dif­ issues, such as the genetics of intelli­ ject their claims to close scrutiny (e.g., ference. Jensen has been heckled and gence and the potential effects of day see Goldberg, Grenier, Guion, Sechrest, even spat on by protestors, and has been care on children's emotional adjust­ and Wing, 1991, Questionnaires used in forced to cancel several public appear­ ment. Second, the growth of congres­ the prediction of trustworthiness in pre- ances. Rushton nearly lost his tenured sional lobbies and special interest employment selection decisions: An A.P.A. position at the University of Western groups has encouraged groups with Task Force Report, Washington, D.C.: Ontario despite his high level of schol­ small but vocal constituencies to American Psychological Association). arly productivity and solid teaching obstruct controversial research. Third, Hunt's discussion of the animal record. Although Hunt acknowledges genetic engineering, nuclear power, rights movement also lacks balance. that the research of Jensen and Rushton and other technological developments Hunt correctly observes that some ani­ is certainly not beyond scientific that some perceive as dangerous have mal rights advocates have disrupted reproach, he argues persuasively that resulted in a growing mistrust of sci­ research projects by subjecting many of the attacks against them have ence and its applications. Fourth, researchers to personal threats and even been more personal than substantive. If Hunt argues that certain members of physical assaults in some cases. Such their findings and conclusions are ques­ the extreme political right have attacks have been terribly damaging to tionable, Hunt maintains, they should acquired increasing power to place researchers and their families, and have be openly criticized in the high court of constraints on research that might often been antithetical to scientific scientific peer review rather than cen­ be construed as undermining the sanc­ progress. For example, Marilyn Carroll sored or suppressed. tity of the American family. For exam­ of the University of Minnesota has Psychologists Mark and Linda Sobell ple, Jesse Helmes and several other been repeatedly harassed and threat­ were the apparent victims of a pro­ United States senators have success­ ened by protesters who object to her longed witch hunt following their pub­ fully obstructed federally funded research on animal models of cocaine lication of alcoholism treatment find­ research that involves asking adoles­ and nicotine addiction. ings that raised questions concerning cents about their sexual behaviors. Nevertheless, Hunt neglects to prevailing dogma. The treatment of If The New Know-Nothings has a sig­ address a very different problem: In a alcoholism in the United States has been nificant shortcoming, it is Hunt's occa­ number of academic departments it has influenced substantially by the tenets of sional tendency to paint with an overly become virtually taboo to raise ques­ Alcoholics Anonymous and similar broad brush. Although Hunt is typically tions regarding the complex ethical organizations, which insist that absti­ careful to distinguish politically moti­ dilemmas associated with invasive ani­ nence is the only feasible long-term goal vated attacks from legitimate scientific mal research. Most dispassionate of alcoholism treatment. After the criticisms, he at times blurs this bound­ observers would agree that although Sobells published a study suggesting ary. For example, Hunt takes issue with invasive animal research can yield that some alcoholics can benefit from a recent attacks on self-report integrity important scientific knowledge, one treatment approach emphasizing con­ ("honesty") tests, which are used by must thoughtfully weigh the ethical trolled (moderate) drinking, they were thousands of U.S. companies to detect and pragmatic costs and benefits of accused by another investigative team of prospective employees at risk for antiso­ such research before undertaking it. fabricating data. Although these allega­ cial behavior on the job. Hunt notes But relatively few academic depart­ tions were categorically rejected by sev­ that integrity tests have been criticized ments in which invasive animal eral independent panels, at least one by civil rights advocates and other social research is conducted encourage an researcher has continued to accuse the critics on the grounds of questionable open discussion of these costs or offer Sobells of academic misconduct despite validity and potential racial bias, and he course background in the ethics of ani­ compelling evidence to the contrary. attempts to rebut these claims by draw­ mal research. Hunt traces the increasingly steady ing on the relevant literature. Never- It is a shame ili.it Hunt's book drumbeat of political assaults on social dieless. Hunt does not point out that appeared prior to the recent hue and cry science research to several sources. diese tests have been shown in con­ in response to a quantitative literature First, Hunt contends that the precipi­ trolled studies to be markedly suscepti­ review published by psychologist Bruce tous increase in militant social activism ble to coaching effects, or that much of Rind and his colleagues in the journal over the past several decades has die evidence for dieir validity derives Psychological Bulletin. This 1998 article

60 May/June 2001 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER BOOK REVIEWS revealed that the correlation between their article and its conclusions were pair of "Mean Genes glasses" through child sexual abuse and later psy- formally denounced by a 355 to 0 vote which to view their world. Thus chopathology may be considerably in the United States House of empowered with understanding, we are weaker than many researchers had sup­ Representatives. The Rind affair bears better equipped to handle our battles posed (see Berry and Berry, "The disturbing implications for academic with self-control. Congressional Censure of a Research and scientific freedom and suggests that The book suggests self-control Paper," SI, January/February, 2000 and we can ignore Hunt's message only at strategies, which the authors admit are Hagen, "Damaged Goods," SI, January/ our peril. A description of this lurid to some extent common sense and February 2001). Following the publica­ affair would make a fitting postscript to commonplace. The improvement tion of this article. Rind and his collab­ Hunt's book. strategies in Mean Genes may not be orators were harshly condemned by Despite its imperfections, The New original but the context in which they radio personality Dr. Laura Schlessinger Know-Nothings makes for gripping and are given is. It is unfortunate that this and accused by several politicians of often disconcerting reading. Social sci­ book is shelved in the biology section endorsing pedophilia, even though they ence researchers, particularly those of the bookstore instead of in self-help were careful in their article to note that investigating potentially controversial or where it would get the attention it their findings could not be used to jus­ unpopular questions, should place it at deserves. Mean Genes would make a tify child sexual abuse. In addition, the top of their reading lists. welcome change to a section cluttered with shamanism and feng shui. In naming this book the authors do

IIMIII tiHmnmi, not presume that our genes harbor mal­ nam in rttui mnicri Self Help From Science ice and are actively working against us. DANIEL GRASSAM Burnham and Phelan's "mean gene" is a literary device. Our genes are "mean" MEAN Mean Genes: From Sex to Money to Food: Taming Our because they "predispose us to certain Primal Instincts. By Terry Burnham and Jay Phelan. failings." These failings, they note, are GENES Perseus Publishing, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 2000. only failings in light of a modern world ISBN 0-7382-0230-4. 263 pp. Hardcover, $24. with automobiles and remote control television. Hunter-gatherers expend iitiiuiMiuMiira hundreds of calories acquiring their food whereas we need only dial our local pizza delivery service. The authors ithout opening a debate on hundreds of scientists across myriad dis­ are also quick to point out a basic tenet mind/body dualism (or ciplines. The authors draw examples of evolution, that each of our "mean Wmore specifically here from their own lives, the animal king­ genes" in one way or another helped mind/brain dualism), Mean Genes dom, psychology, and pop culture and humans to survive or else they would endeavors to help people understand blend it with a friendly conversational not be with us today. why it is their brains seem to work tone and smatterings of humor. The This raises die question about how against their desires. Why, for example, result is both enjoyable and educational. much our genes are responsible for our New Year's resolutions to eat more Covering topics like greed, infidelity, psychological development. The authors healthfully and save more money don't relationships, food, and money, recognize that genes are not die only last any longer than the first offer of Burnham and Phelan approach each influence on human behavior. Leaving dessert or new car advertisement. topic with the mantle of scientific the cultural and nurturing effects to "Consider this book an owner's man­ inquiry. In the section "Please Don't odier works. Mean Genes focuses on the ual for your brain," assert the authors in Feed the Humans" the authors discuss role played by our genes in determining the opening line of this self-help book the human predicament of obesity and our actions. from the scientifically minded. Authors point out that it was our ancient ances­ Endnotes and citations are notice­ Terry Burnham and Jay Phelan have put tors' constant instinctual hunger that ably missing from the text. They can be together a book for the general reader helped them to succeed in surviving and found on the Mean Genes Web site at that is founded in the research efforts of thus reproducing. Knowing that your www.meangenes.org. In leaving out ancestors also couldn't control their citations and scientific jargon Burnham appetite may not offer comfort but it and Phelan have written a book with a Daniel Grassam writes from Denver, does bring understanding. The authors' foundation in science that does not read Colorado. stated goal is to help the reader build a like a science textbook.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/June 2001 61 NEW BOOKS

Listing does not preclude future review. Hall, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458. last three involving various experiments by 2001. ISBN 0-13-028326-6. 639 pp. Soft- Targ & Puthoff). Psychologist Marks (City How We Got to be Human: Subjective cover. Introductory psychology text is the University, London) has long been involved Minds with Objective Bodies. William H. authors' attempt to respond to the AAAS in critically investigating claims and report­ Libaw. Prometheus Books, 59 John Glenn policy statement on the importance of teach­ ing the results. He notes that all seven claims Drive, Amherst, NY 14228-2197. 2000. ing introductory science courses for depth of lack scientific evidence to support them but ISBN 1-57392-813-5. 390 pp. Hardcover, concept rather than breadth of topics. Their says the public is nevertheless entitled to an $35. An exploration of subjective life as reconceptualization provides an alternative independent evaluation that is informed by experienced by animals, apes, and humans. to the traditional, topic-by-topic way of the evidence. That is his aim. This is a signif­ Consciousness, Libaw argues, was the start teaching psychology. The material is orga­ icant update by Marks, with much new of mentality, which grew as animals evolved nized by what they regard as the five major material, of an important 1980 book written until it became, in humans, mind. He brings perspectives in the field: biological, cogni­ with his late colleague Richard Kammann. togedier information from scholars and sci­ tive, learning, sociocultural, and psychody- entists of evolutionary science and the namic. Another emphasis is to give a flavor Scientific Laws, Principles, and Theories: humanities to trace the evolutionary devel­ of the real debates and controversies within A Reference Guide. Robert E. Krebs. opment and expansion of the ability to make psychology. Greenwood Publishing Group, Inc., 88 Post and use conscious mental concepts. Road West, P.O. Box 5007. Westport, CT The Psychology of the Psychic (Second 06881-1502. 2000. ISBN 0-313-30957-4. Psychobabble and Biobunk: Using Edition). David Marks, Ph.D. Forewords by 416 pp. Hardcover, $65. A guide to the Psychology to Think Critically About Issues in Martin Gardner. Prometheus Books, 59 John important laws, principles, theories, the News. Carol Tavris. Prentice Hall, Inc., Glenn Drive, Amherst, NY 14228-2197. hypotheses, and concepts that reflect the Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458. 2001. ISBN 2000. ISBN 1-57392-803-8. 246 pp. progression of scientific descriptions and 0-13-027986-2. 107 pp. Softcover. A collec­ Softcover, $19. A critical analysis of claims of explanations of nature. The entries are listed tion of short opinion essays and book reviews psychic powers covering virtually all the alphabetically, usually according to the name written for the Los Angeles Times, New York major players of die 1970s, 1980s, and of the person credited with formulating the Times, and several magazines. The first eight 1990s. Seven of the boldest claims of the last law or concept. Some arc familiar, some not. deal with science versus pseudoscience, thirty years are critically investigated: Claims (Examples: Avagadro's Law, Fitzgerald's including the appeal of pseudoscience, the of remote-viewing abilities (broken into the Concept of Electromagnetic Contraction, popularity of predictions, the misuse of opin­ Targ & Puthoff SRI experiments of Gallo's HIV-AIDS Theory. Gamows Big ion polls, the misuses of pop-psych surveys, 1972-1985 and the Stargate experiments of Bang Theory, Pearson's Statistical Theories, stories versus statistics, illusory correlations, 1985-1995 by Lantz, Kuke, & May); and Richter's Theory for Earthquake Mag­ and thinking critically about alternative med­ Ganzfeld ESP ability (mainly Honorton and nitude.) Intended for high school and col­ icine and abour mystical messages. Bern); the ability to detect unseen staring lege students and for general readers inter­ (Sheldrake); pets' ESP ability (Sheldrake); ested in science. Glossary. Index. Uri Geller's ESP ability; Geller's psychokine­ Psychology in Perspective (Third Edition). sis ability; and Geller's clairvoyant ability (the Carol Tavris and Carole Wade. Prentice —Kendrick Frazier

ARTICLES OF NOTE

Bryant, Vaughn M. Jr. "Does Pollen Derbyshire, John. "Valiant for Truth." The Scottish university were asked about their Prove the Shroud Authentic?" Bibli­ New Criterion, 19(5), January 2001. A trib­ belief in evolution. Between 4 and 11% cal Archaeology Review, 26(6):36—44, 75. ute to Martin Gardner, or "Sir Martin" as rejected it; the percentage has decreased November/December 2000. A long review Derbyshire affectionately names him. slightly but significandy. In a single year essay about the pro-Shroud book Flora Derbyshire talks about his deep admiration srudy, ten percent of medical students also of the Shroud of Turin. Bryant, a pollen for Gardner and touches on Gardner's views rejected evolution. scientist, argues that the studies done so on everything from religion and superstition, far are not detailed enough to determine to mathematics and numerology. "Nobody Friesel, Mark. "Does Religion Prize whether the pollen on the Shroud of Turin has worked harder or more steadily to defend Mislead Scientists?" (Letters column) is from Israel. and enlarge this little firelit clearing we hold Physics Today, 54:82, February 2001. In his in the dark chittering forest of unreason," letter, Friesel accuses "misled scientists" of Carnes, Tony. "Design Interference." writes Derbyshire. compromising rhcir integrity by "creating Christianity Today, 44(14):20. December 4, commonality between religion and science" 2000. Baylor University, a Southern Baptist Downie, J.R., and N.J. Barron. "Evolution simply for the sake of winning the school, recendy fired William Dembski as the and Religion: Attitudes of Scottish First Templeton Prize for Progress in Religion. He head of uSeir Polanyi Center for Complexity Year Biology and Medical Students to the views the prize as a "bribe," a way to lure (he remains on die University's faculty). This is Teaching of Evolutionary Biology." Journal well-respected scientists toward the "right- part of the controversy in die denomination of Biological Education, 34(3): wing religious cause." between creationists, as represented by 139-146, Summer 2000. For more than a Intelligent Design theorists, and evolutionists. decade first-year biology students at a Hoffrage, Ulrich, Samuel Lindsey, Ralph

62 May/June 2001 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER ARTICLES OF NOTE

Hertwig, and Gerd Gigerenzer. "Com­ form of Twenty Questions." Jaroff provides legal system takes its methods for granted. municating Statistical Information." evidence of outright chicanery in Edward's Law enforcement ... is in thrall to a culture Science, 290: 2261-2262, December 22, show, including aides striking up revealing of precedent and convention, not of experi­ 2000. A study was conducted at Harvard conversations with audience members and ment and change. And science remains Medical School in which faculty, staff, and asking them to fill out cards before the show deeply mistrusted." students were asked to find the probability of begins and videotape of the sessions edited certain diseases. More questions were down so that wrong answers appear correct. Hutton, Ronald. "Paganism and the answered correctly when the statistics were On a subsequent Larry King Live show on Polemic: The Debate over the Origins of given not in probabilities but in natural fre­ CNN on March 6, Jaroff and CSICOP chair­ Modern Pagan Witchcraft." Folklore. quencies (e.g., "of every 10,000 people 30 man Paul Kurtz appeared with Edward and 111(0:103-117. April 2000. Is Wicca the have colorectal cancer....", etc.), which is four others in challenges about such evidence modern reappearance of an ancient religion how "humans have experienced statistical (see News 8c Comment, this issue). or a twentieth century invention? Hutton, information over most of their history." The who leans toward the latter view, responds to authors conclude that "leaching representa­ Gawande, Atul. "Investigations: Under criticism by Donald H. Frew, who supports tions rather than rules—and expressing statis­ Suspicion: The Fugitive Science of Margaret Murray's theory that the victims of tical information in natural frequencies where Criminal Justice." The New Yorker, January medieval witch trials were practicing pagans. appropriate—can help to foster the statistical 8, 2001, pp. 50-53. "The law has balked at reasoning needed to make sound decisions." submitting its methods to scientific inquiry," Khpera, Saafu. "They Came Before writes Gawande. Submitting the legal system Columbus." New African, (392): 16-20. Jaroff, Leon. "Talking to the Dead." Time, to scientific scrutiny—as was done with med­ January 2001. Stone carvings and terracotta March 5, 2001. p. 52. Skeptics question the icine in the last century—could completely figures found in South America indicate that powers of John Edward, the ever-popular psy­ transform it. In this article, he discusses cur­ Africans may have arrived before Columbus. chic medium who claims the ability to "con­ rent remedies in place that are meant to bring Books by Ivan Van Sertima and Alexander nect with energies of people who have crossed the criminal justice system into the scientific von Wuthenau arc cited. over." Critics of Edward—the likes of whom arena: yet, only a few police departments (most of them in Canada) have adopted include magician James Randi—accuse him of Moran, Maureen F. ""Light No Smithfield these practices. So why is the legal system using well-known "cold reading" techniques. Fires': Some Victorian Attitudes to slow to change? According to Gawande, "the As Jaroff says, it is really just "a sophisticated Witchcraft." Journal of Popular Culture.

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SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/lune 2001 63 ARTICLES OF NOTE

33(4):123-151. Spring 2000. The Randi as all being forces in the crusade tical inquiry with SI Editor Kendrick Victorians considered themselves far too toward critical thinking. Frazier, and other short features. Clifford A. sophisticated to believe in witchcraft, but Pickovcr served as the consulting editor for their art and literature arc haunted by images Radford, Benjamin, and Robert Bartholo­ this fine treatment of hoaxes, pseudoscience, of witches. Moran sees this as a reaction to mew. "Pokemon Contagion: Photo­ and skepticism for young readers. (Odyssey is the changing roles of women. sensitive Epilepsy or Mass Psychogenic published by Cobblestone Publishing, 30 Illness?" Southern Medical Journal 94(2): Grove St., Suite C, Peterborough, NH Napier, Tom. "Are Mensans Skeptical 197-204, February 2001. A study of the 03458.) Enough?" Mensa Bulletin: The Magazine of reported illness outbreak in 1997 of more American Mensa, January 2001, pp. 8, 18. than 12,000 Japanese children who had vari­ Thornton, Brian. "The Moon Hoax: "Mensans devote immense effort to convoluted ous signs and symptoms of illness after watch­ Debates About Ethics in 1835 New York systems of thought without considering that ing an episode of the popular children's car­ Newspapers." Journal of Mass Media Ethics. their foundations may be false," says Napier, toon, Pokemon. The features of the episode 15(2):89-100. 2000. In 1835 the New York founder of PhACT, a Philadelphia-based skep­ are consistent with a diagnosis of epidemic Sun claimed that people had been seen on tics' organization. He urges Mensans to think hysteria, triggered by mass media reports. (For the Moon through telescopes, one of the critically, and to use their problem-solving skills a popular report on this study see Benjamin major hoaxes in newspaper history. wisely. "It is a waste of good brainpower, not to Radford's article in this issue of SI.) Thornton examined editorials and readers' mention an embarrassment to die rest of us, letters that appeared in a sample of New when Mensans fail to apply critical thinking "Science or Hoax?" Odyssey, Vol. 9, No. 9, York papers of the time and found that tew before engaging their brains." December 2000. Entire issue of science mag­ people seemed to object to the fraud, possi­ azine for kids grades 4-9 devoted to helping bly because few had taken it seriously. Perlman, David. "Sideshows of Science: readers "distinguish logic from delusion, As Knowledge Expands, So Do the Ranks charlatans from truth-tellers." Short, illus­ Todd, Paul. "Pickin' on Wiccans." of Believers in Fakery." San Francisco trated, lively articles on "The 'Paranormal Vancouver, 33(12):28. December 2000. A Chronicle, January 8, 2001, p. A6. An article Hoax'" (by Joe Nickel!); the Shroud of Turin short essay complaining about Wiccans focusing on the public's ever-growing belief Debate; "The Lie That Lasted 40 Years" (neo-Pagan witches) who complain that in pscudoscicnce from astrological Internet (Piltdown Man); "The loch Ness Monster: popular culture tells untruths about witches. Anatomy of a Hoax"; "How a Skeptic sites to television psychics and alternative Todd argues that they arc a New Age fad Investigates" (by Joe Nickell again); "Urban healers. Science editor Perlman references with no right to tell others how to interpret Legends and Suburban Myths (by Robert T. the Committee for the Scientific Investi­ their alleged ancestors. gation of Claims of the Paranormal (CSI- Carroll)"; dowsing and tests of dowsing (the COP), the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, scientist latter by James Randi); "Internet Hoaxes"; —Kendrick Frazier, Jodi Chapman, Stephen Jay Gould, and magician James "Looking at ESP"; an interview about skep­ and Robert Lopresti

Russian Academy of Sciences, the Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal, and the Russian Humanist Society Philosophy Department of Moscow State University presents the INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC CONGRESS Science, Antiscience, and the Paranormal October 3-5, 2001 • MOSCOW, RUSSIA Russian Academy of Sciences 117334, Moscow, Leininskii Prospekt, 32a Organizing Committee of the Congress: Academician Edward Kruglyakov, Co-Chairman; Professor Paul Kurtz. Chairman, Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal, Co-Chairman; Professor Valerii Kuvakin, President, Russian Humanist Society, Co-Chairman; Professor Givi Givishvily, Deputy of Organizing Committee. Academicians Vitalii Ginzburg, Harry Abelev, Professors Sergei Kapitza, Vladimir Mironov, Zulfija Tazhurizina. Anatolii Zotov, Yurii Efremov, Dr. Alexander Bovin, Dr. Gennadii Shevelev.

Registration Fee: USS100 Banquet: US$20 Conference will be held at the City Tour: USS15 Tour to Kremlin: USS20 new Russian Academy of All payments should be made after your arrival in Moscow. Sciences building, For information on accommodations contact Professor Valerii 117334, Moscow, Leininskii Kuvakin—Fax: (095) 939-2208, E-mail: v.kuvakin©mtu-net.ru Prospekt, 32a

64 May/June 2001 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Putting a Better Face on the 'Face' on Mars

GARY P. POSNER

n my November/December 2000 reversed" version of the same photo, to to the mission's latitude constraints) to cover article "The Face Behind the more closely simulate the Viking pho­ the edge of the North Polar Ice Cap, and I'Face' on Mars: A Skeptical Look at tos' lighting conditions. Some have dius to the possibility of encountering Richard C. Hoagland," the NASA pho­ remarked that this version does indeed atmospheric water. Ultimately, however, tos of the so-called "Face" were, regret­ look a bit more like a head, though that the terrain appeared too rugged to risk a tably, not as enhanced as other available of a lion radier than a humanoid. landing there. NASA images. Mark Kelly, a graphic artist, has per­ Hoagland associate Michael Bara, The cover photo (also used on page formed additional "enhancements" to diis whose vitriolic response to my article is 21) was the ubiquitous "Face" image image (e.g., slightly repositioning some featured on the "Enterprise Mission" from the 1976 Viking 1 mission—the features and adding shading around the Web site, argues that the "Face" is situ­ image most familiar to everyone. But an "eyes"), dius exaggerating its humanoid ated in what was likely an ancient enhanced version of that photo, reveal­ qualities. Not surprisingly, Richard Martian ocean, and is thus (contrary to ing more of die shadowed side and elim­ Hoagland's "Enterprise Mission" Web site my article's opening remarks) an excel­ inating the black dots (missing data refers to Kelly's creauon as the "properly lent place to search for traces of past life. points) is available from NASA, and we processed and ortho-rectified version" of However, I understand the prevailing are pleased to now present it (figure la). die photo, i.e., presumably showing die informed opinion (though not unani­ A second, less familiar photo of the face "Face" as it really looks. You compare and mous) to have been, both at the time of was also obtained by Viking 1, and is judge (see figures 3a and 3b). the Viking mission and Mars Global shown in figure lb. In my article's opening paragraph, I Surveyor, that Cydonia was most likely The 1998 Mars Global Surveyor myopically referred to "Cydonia" as if it never an ocean, and that its features are (MGS) image used in the article was, for encompassed merely die few hundred the result of erosion by other forces technical reasons (related to the way square miles of terrain containing the (e.g., wind) rather than water. NASA's mapping was being carried out), "Face" and the other "monuments." Bara also says that Hoagland didn't somewhat "stretched" along the "Face's" Cydonia is actually much vaster, and write any of the words attributed to him vertical axis. I had previously seen both though the area around the "Face" was in the promotional material for the Sierra this image and NASA's stretch-reduced of no interest to NASA, the far northern Leone Mars stamp set—diat "the whole version, but never together, and not portion of Cydonia was initially the pre­ 'quote' was written by [stamp promoter until a reader (George J. Haas of die ferred landing site for Viking 2, being Alan Shawn] Feinstein and used widiout Cydoniainstitutc.com Web site) com­ about as close as a lander could get (due Hoagland's permission." If so, I am happy plained did I appreciate the difference. Figures 2a and 2b show both the Jay Leno-ish version we used (left) and the one that more faithfully shows the "Face's" true proportions. Mea culpa. NASA has also published a "light-

Gary P. Posner, who practiced internal medicine for fifteen years before launching out into medical software, is founder and executive director of Tampa Bay Skeptics and a CSICOP Consultant. Address: 5319 Archstone Dr. #102, Tampa,

FL 33634. E-mail: [email protected]. Figure la. An enhanced version of the Viking 1 Figure lb. An enhanced version of Viking 1 Web: http://members@aoLcom/garypos. photo #35A72. photo #70A 13.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/June 2001 65 IN SEARCH OF FISHER'S GHOST from page 21

occurred in 1955 when "a white cow in the distance in the pitch darkness gave some onlookers a scare" ("Fisher's Ghost" 1957). Clearly the story of Fisher's ghost has many of the elements that make a tale worth telling—and retelling: an histori­ cal basis, intrigue and murder, a quest for justice, and a spine-tingling resolu­ tion. Not surprisingly, the "ghost" seems Figure 2a. The "stretched" Mars Global Surveyor Figure 2b. NASA's rectified/unstretched version. image (used in the original article). to have taken on a life of its own.

Acknowledgments In addition to Peter Rodgers, I want to express my gratitude to Barry Williams, exec­ utive officer of Australian Skeptics; Georgina Keep, Local Studies Librarian, Campbelltown City Library; and many oth­ ers who assisted, including staff of the Campbelltown Town Center (city hall).

References

Brunvand. Jan Harold. 1978. The Study of American Folklore: An Introduction. Second ed. New York: W. W. Norton, 108-109. Campbelltown City Library. 2000. Vertical file (including all the newspaper clippings used in Figure 3a. NASA's "light reversed" image of the Figure 3b. Graphic artist Mark Kelly's so-called this article). MGS photo. "properly processed and ortho-rectified ver­ Cranfield, Louis. 1963. Was Australia's greatest sion" of the same image. ghost story a hoax? Adelaide, S.A., Chronicle. to clarify the record, rliough I wonder October 24. and the stuff that we think we are now Cusack, Frank, ed. 1967. Australian Ghosts. what pan of die quote Hoagland could seeing on [our own Moon and onl the possibly find disagreement with. Sydney: Angus & Robertson, 1—24. moons of Jupiter. . .. There is so Davis, Richard. 1998. The Ghost Guide to And Bara decries my admittedly much that we are now getting glim­ Australia. Sydney: Bantam. 16-18. ridiculous "earthlings—from our own mers of. ... [My next book] is going Finucanc, R.C. 1984. Appearances of the Dead: A to be called The Heritage of Mars: future" reference (re: the possible archi­ Cultural History of Ghosts. Amherst, N.Y.: Remembering Forever, because my Prometheus Books. tects of the "Face") as a "blatant attempt thesis now, based on almost twenty Fisher's ghost. 1853. Household Words, 7: 6-9. to put words in [Hoagland's] mouth." I years of doing this [research] ... is Fisher's Ghost appears but crowd disappoints. 1957. Campbelltown-lngleburn News (Camp- didn't ascribe my nutty idea to Hoagland, "history is not as we've been told." . . . It has been carefully manipulated so belltown, N.S.W.), June l8. but little did I know at the time (nor does we are not allowed to sec this breath­ Fowler, Verlie. 1991. Colonial Days in Bara's complaint hint at) how close I had taking heritage, because it would not Campbelltown: The Legend of Fisher's Ghost, actually come to Hoagland's current benefit a few who are in control . . . revised ed. Campbelltown, N.S.W., Australia: and who want us to live this dimin­ Campbelltown & Airds Historical Society. view—if only I had instead said "our own Ghost that trapped a murderer? 1955. Sydney, ished existence not knowing who we N.S.W., The Sun-Herald, July 3. past." The following is verbatim from really are because, frankly, it would Richard Hoagland's appearance on Mike Illusionist brought Fisher's ghost to Pitt St. play­ threaten the power structure. house. 1984. Daily Mirror (clipping in Siegel's (Art Bell's) Coast to Coast A.M. Campbelltown 2000), March 22. radio program from the night/morning of Two additional clarifications: A Lang, John. n.d. Botany Bay or True Stories of the November 17/18, 2000: Early Days of Australia, excerpt from 1859 ed. reader has informed me that the split reprinted in Cusack 1967. The model thai I am most comfort­ between Hoagland and Chuck Harder Lee, C. N. 1963. Another ghost version, able with now is that the human race was not permanent, and that Hoagland Campbelltown-lngleburn News (Campbelltown, N.S.W.). February 12. is a lot older—a lot more extraordi­ has been a frequent guest on Harder's nary—than we have ever been told. Nickell, Joe. 2001. Mysterious Australia. SKEPTICAL radio program during the past few years. INQUIRER 25(2), March/April: 15-18. And the fact [is] that we once used to Supposed murder. 1826. Notice in The Australian, live all over die solar system—that the I have also learned that NASA's Lewis September 23. cited in Davis 1998. extraterrestrials are our guys. We're the Research Center was renamed some time Supreme Criminal Court. 1827. Proceedings pub­ guys chat built the stuff on Mars ... ago in honor of John Glenn. (Zl lished in Sydney Gazette, February 5.

66 May/June 2001 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Puthoff. Gardner. FILL IN THE GAPS IN YOUR MARCH/APRIL 1998 (vol. 22. no. 2): Special Report: The price of bad memories, loftus / Science, delusion, and the appetite for wonder. Dawkins I A mind at play: An interview with Martin Gardner, Frazier I Skeptical Inquirer COLLECTION Houdini and Conan Doyle: The story of a strange friendship, Polidoro I Spontaneous human combus­ • 15% discount on orders of $100 or more • tion: Thoughts of a forensic biologist, Benecke I Did Adam and Eve have navels?, Gardner. • $6.25 a copy. Vols. 1-18 ($5.00 Vols. 19-22). To order, use reply card insert • JANUARY/FEBRUARY 1998 (vol. 22. no. 1): Testing new MARCH/APRIL 2001 (vol. 25, no. 2): Darwin in mind. JULY/AUGUST 1999 (vol. 23. no. 4): Special Issue: claims of dermo-optical perception, Benski and CRSSA Edis IA bit confused. Roche I What can the paranor­ Science and Religion. Conflict or Conciliation? Scientists I Magnetic water and fuel treatment. Powell mal teach us about consciousness?, Blackmore I Celebrating creation, Raymo I Should skeptical inquiry I Dowsing the Rollrights. Hancock I Anomalous gold, Spontaneous human confabulation, Nienhuys I Italy's be applied to religion?. Kurtz / The 'Science and Brower I Open minds and the argument from igno­ version of Harry Houdini, rV/sbet / A psychological case Religion' movement. Scott / Science and the versus of rance. Adlerl 200% probability and beyond: The com­ of 'demon' and 'alien' visitation, Reisner I Distant religion, Palevitz I Science vs. religion, Pazameta I pelling nature of extraordinary claims in the absence healing and Elizabeth Targ. Gardner. Anthropic design. Stenger I Scientific skepticism. CSI- of alternative explanations. McDonald I Psychic COP. and the local groups. Novella and Bloomberg I JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2001 (vol. 25. no. 1): Special exploitation, Wiseman and Greening I Is cannibalism a Two mind-sets. Allen I God is dead, after the weather myth?, Gardner. Section: Issues in Alternative Medicine: Medicine wars, and sports. Reia I Whence religious belief?. Pinter / Seidman I Herbal medicines and dietary supplements, Non-overlapping magisteria, Gould I You can't have it NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 1997 (vol. 21. no. 6): The Mars Allen I Psychoactive herbal medications, both ways: Irreconcilable differences?, effect in retrospect. Nienhuys I Hidden messages and Spmella I Chiropractic Homola I Dawkins I The concerns of science. the Bible code. Thomas I Science, scientism, and anti- Damaged goods? Science and child sex­ Mayr I The religious views of Stephen science in the age of preposterism, Haack I The ual abuse, Hagen I Special Report: Skeptical Inquirer Gould and Charles Darwin. Gardner. Elemental Man: An interview with Glenn T. Seaborg / Science indicators 2000 / Facilitated Men in Black and Contact Night and day. Summer I communication. Gardner MAY/JUNE 1999 (vol. 23. no. 3): Special Intelligent design and Phillip Johnson, Gardner. consciousness Section: Urban legends. The snuff film. NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 2000 (vol. 24. MID PHRUPSYCHOLOGY Stine I Bitter harvest The organ-snatch­ SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 1997 (vol. 21. no. S): Special Issue: no. 6): The face behind the Face on ing urban legends, Radford I Bigfoot's Alternative Medicine in a Scientific World. Park. Mars. Posner I The new paranatural screen test. Daegling and Schmitt I Beyerstein. Sampson, Green. Goodenough. McCutcheon paradigm, Kurtz I Francis Bacon and Tracking Bigfoot i the Internet, I The Numerology of Dr. Rashad Khalifa. Gardner. the true ends of skepticism. Friedberg I Zuefle I Statement nalysis. Shearer I JULY/AUGUST 1997 (vol. 21, no. 4): Special Report: Worlds In collision: Where reality NAGPRA. science, nd the demon- Heaven's Gate. Kurtz. Gardner. Nickell I What really meets the paranormal. Radford I Why haunted world, Cla, irit I Urine therapy. happened at Roswell. Korff I Amazing free-energy bad beliefs don't die. tester / Gardner. Supernatural power and cultural evo­ claims of Dennis lee. Krieg I Chiropractic: Science, lution, Layng I The brutality of Dr MARCH/APRIL 1999 (vol. 23. no. 2): antiscience. pseudoscience, Keating I Secrets of a Bettelheim. Gardner. Special Report: The ten-percent myth. Russian psychic, Polidoro. Radford / Superstition and the regres­ MAY/JUNE 1997 (vol. 21, no. 3): Is the sky falling?, SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2000 (vol. 24, no. 5): Voodoo sion effect Kruger, Savitsky. and Gilovich I Psychology Morrison I Collective delusions: A skeptic's guide, science and the belief gene. Park I Rogerian Nursing of the seance, Wiseman I Dowsing and archaeology. Bartholomew I Scientific reasoning and achievement Theory, Raskin /Sun sign columns. Dean and Mather I van Leusen I Hidden messages in DNA?. Larhammar in a high school English course, Krai I Skepticism and The psychic staring effect Marks and Colwell I and Chatzidimitriou I The real Chief Seattle was not a politics. Fagin / Courtney Brown's 'Cosmic Voyage' Into Management of positive and negative responses in a spiritual ecologist. Abruzzi I Joint pain and weather. preposterism, Gardner. spiritualist medium consultation, Greasley I The laws Quick / Acupressure, zone therapy, and reflexology, of nature: A skeptic's guide, Pazameta I Special Gardner. MARCH/APRIL 1997 (vol. 21. no. 2): The darkened cos­ Report: On ear cones and candles. Kaushall and mos: A tribute to Carl Sagan / Hale-Bopp comet mad­ Kaushalll Little Red Riding Hood. Gardner. JANUARY/FEBRUARY 1999 (vol. 23, no. 1): Special ness plus An astronomer's personal statement on Report: Armageddon and the prophets of doomsday. UFOs, Hale I Biases of everyday judgment Gilovich I JULY/AUGUST 2000 (vol. 24. no. 4): Thought Field Fears of the apocalypse, Kurtz I The Bible and the The end of science?, Schick I The Book of Predictions: Therapy: Can we really tap our problems away?. prophets of doom, Larue I Science and pseudoscience IS years later. Tuerkheimer and Vyse I Farrakhan, Gaudiano and Herbert I Absolute skepticism equals in Russia. Kapitza I Testing dowsing: The failure of the Cabala. Baha'i, and 19, Gardner. dogmatism. Sunge / Did a close encounter of the Munich experiments. Cnright IA fallibilist among the third kind occur on a Japanese beach in 1803?. cynics, Haack I The internet: A world brain?, Gardner. JANUARY/FEBRUARY 1997 (vol. 21, no. 1): The X-Files Tanaka I Rethinking the dancing mania. meets the skeptics: Chris Carter takes questions / The Bartholomew I Has science education become an NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 1998 (vol. 22. no. 6): Gaps in significance of the millennium, Loevinger I Quantum enemy of scientific rationality?, fde / Krakatene: the fossil record: A case study. Thomas I The Martian quackery, Stenger I The mysterious placebo. Dodes I Explosive pseudoscience from the Czech Academy of Panic sixty years later Bartholomew I The perils of Bias and Error in children's books. Wiseman and Jeffreys science. Slanina I David Bohm and Krishnamurti, post-hockery, Ruscio I May the force be with you, I Jean Houston: Guru of human potential, Gardner. Gardner. Krauss I The Mead-Freeman controversy: A fresh look: NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 1996 (vol. 20, no. 6): A strat­ Much ado about nothing The 'Fateful Hoaxing' of egy for saving science, Lederman I That's entertain­ MAY/JUNE 2000 (vol. 24, no. 3): Special Report: The Margaret Mead. C6U I Margaret Mead. Derek ment I TVs UFO coverup. Klass I Scientific consensus new bogus MJ-12 documents, Mass / Mass delusions Freeman, and the issue of evolution. Shankman I and expert testimony. Moore I The Dogon people and hysterias of the past millennium. Bartholomew Second World Skeptics Congress: Science and reason, and Goode I Doomsday fears at RHIC, Guiterrez I Save foibles and fallacies, and doomsdays / Science and the revisited. Ortiz de Montellano I Cosmic menagerie, our science: The struggle for rationality at a French unknowable. Gardner. Tyson / Physicist Alan Sokal's hilarious hoax. Gardner. university. Broch / Paraneuroscience?. Kirkland I SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 1996 (vol. 20. no. S): Shades of Bohm's guided wave theory, Gardner. SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 1998 (vol. 22. no. 5): Special meaning: Science fiction as a new metric, Stewart / Section: What are the chances?. Coincidences: The first World Skeptics Congress / Traditional medi­ MARCH/APRIL 2000 (vol. 24. no. 2): Risky business: Remarkable or random?. Martin I Numerology: Comes cine and pseudoscience in China, part 2, Beyerstein Vividness, availability, and the media paradox. Rusciol the revolution. Dudley I Calculated risks. Cole I How to and Sampson I Conspiracy theories and paranoia, Physics and the paranormal, t Hoott / Efficacy of study weird things, Trocco / Why would Harrington I Isaac Newton, Gardner. prayer. Tessman and Tessman I Can we tell if someone people not believe weird things?. is staring at us?. Baker / Assessing the quality of med­ Anderson / Starkle. starkle. little twink, JULY/AUGUST 1996 (vol. 20, no. 4): ical Web sites, lew / The demon-haunted sentence. Hayes I Of planets and cognitions: The use Traditional medicine and pseudoscience Byrne and Normand I Mad messiahs. Gardner. of deductive inference in the natural sci­ in China, Beyerstein and Sampson IC5I- JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2000 (vol. 24, no. 1): Special ences and psychology. Schlinger Jr. I What's COP at twenty. Kurtz I Maria's near- Report The ten outstanding skeptics of the twentieth going on at Temple University?, Gardner. death experience. Cbbern, Mulligan, century / Two paranormalisms or two and a half ?, Goode and Beyerstein I Alternative health edu­ I Anna Eva Fay. Polidoro I The pseudoscience of oxygen JULY/AUGUST 1998 (vol. 21. no. 4): Special cation and pseudocredentialing, Raso I Report Mars Global Surveyor photographs therapy, Allen I Confessions of a (former) graphologist. Pentagon grant funds alternative Face on Mars'. Morrison I Magnetic ther­ health study. Selby and Scheiber I Tripician I The Second Coming of Jesus, Gardner. apy: Plausible attraction. Livingston I Thomas Edison. Paranormalist. Gardner. NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 1999 (vol. 23. no. 6): The Biomagnetic pseudoscience and nonsense claims. Sabadell I Catching up with eigh­ MAY/JUNE 1996 (vol. 20. no. 3) Delights Universe and Carl Sagan. Davidson I The millennium and dangers of sensory illusions. WoH I thought contagion, lynch / Debunking the teenth century science in the evaluation of The enigmatic battery of Baghdad. Fggert debunkers: A response to astrology.

to our efforts or because they had earned for Eisenberg's errors. But he neglected to enough money in the Dutch market, we do refer readers to a fuller analysis of the noi know. Eisenberg report and the followup survey Of course, Pearson and Shaw cannot be that appeared in the Fall/Winter 1999 issue held responsible for die swindling practices (Volume 3, Number 2) of SRAM. This of the Austrian firm, only for the Schlank im is now available, with some revisions, on Schlaf idea. the Web at www.hcrc.org/contrib/gorski/ eiscnb.html. Marie P. Prins Oost-Souburg, Netherlands Tim Gorski, M.D. Associate Editor, SRAM [email protected] Regarding Barry Seidman's remark that herbal medicines arc not patentable: If so, how did we manage to patent aspirin, digi­ Your article "Medicine Wan" reported, as talis and so many other drugs first found in usual, on the percentages of people who use herbs? It would seem to me that the process alternative medicines and the potential dan­ described in John Allen's article that follows gers they pose, especially when the physician Seidman's is indeed patentable. Can't patent doesn't know about the patient's usage. In the herb? Patent the extraction process! Each my experience, when the doctor or his/her newly discovered beneficial herbal com­ nurse asks what medications I am taking, I pound will require something in the process try to enumerate the vitamins and herbs as Medicine Wars that others don't, correct? A slightly different well. However, they never record them and typically give sonic indication that that solvent material, a modestly differing distil­ information is irrelevant. Where is the I am very surprised that you allowed Barry lation procedure. . . . research on: the percentage of doctors asking Seidman ("Medicine Wars," January/Febru­ Is it not more nearly accurate to say that the patient for this information; doctors' ary 2001) to claim that Durk Pearson and pharmaceutical companies may be reluc­ knowledge of the interactions of herbs and Sandy Shaw arc responsible scientists. They tant to apply an expensive and difficult medicines; and doctors' informing patients are not. Among other claims, they arc if not process of examination to each and every of those interactions? the originators then at least the promoters herbal preparation that's widely touted by a of the idea of slimming while you sleep. You credulous lay public because it's so expen­ Are the researchers writing articles in the take certain amino acids and lo-and-bchold sive and demanding a task? Given the wild medical journals urging doctors to inquire miraculously your fat changes overnight variety of claims made for some of the cur­ about the herbs and vitamins and to record into muscle and you lose weight automati­ rently popular drugs, one can easily under­ and/or study possible interactions in their cally. This in spite of the fact that lean mus­ stand why scientific investigators would patients? cle is heavier than fat. and should be cautious. Perhaps in the future we will have some Nevertheless, this idea was used in 1998 Some of these herbs are said to cure guidance in these matters from the studies and 1999 by an Austrian quack to advertise everything from ataxia to zoophobia! (Now now being sponsored by the National anonymously but aggressively in major if someone'd just come up with an herb that Institutes of Health Alternative Medicine Dutch newspapers with the slogan "Slank really cures impotence when Viagra no program. terwijl u slaapt" (Slim while you sleep). longer works!) Similar advertisements had appeared in Jean M. Alberti, Ph.D. other European countries. They combined William D. (BUI) Mayers, RT. RN Lombard, Illinois the amino acids with mate tea and a fruit- Canastota, New York and-vegetablc juice and sold it for roughly ten times the normal retail price of the con­ Herbal Medicines stituents. Efforts of the Dutch, German, The special issue on "alternative medicine" and Austrian skeptics to do something was long overdue and drew proper attention John Allen's diatribe against herbal medi­ against it resulted in an article in the June to the "alternative" nature of the movement cines suggests that all herbs, no matter what 2000 issue of the German magazine which renders it incapable of being real med­ their history of use, should be presumed Skeptiker about the inefFectiveness of die icine. In particular, and as with all pseudo- dangerous. He leaves the impression that no laws of the countries involved. science, it draws its strength from misunder­ herb has ever been subjected to chemical, laboratory, or clinical study and found safe. After complaints from the Dutch standings, wishful thinking, and outright In truth, many have been. By comparison, Advertising Practice Committee (a voluntary deception. he would presume a pharmaceutical mar­ organization), the firm quit advertising this One of the prime examples of the last is keted for five years to be "safer," although particular slimming program and shifted to the 1993 article by David Eisenberg, benefits arc now evaporating and risks advertising Pu-Erh tea as a slimming tea and M.D., and his coauthors in the New emerging for such lucrative drugs as estrogen after that they started advertising pyruvate England Journal of Medicine. Barry and calcium channel blockers. (which they misspelled as pyrofat and then Seidman cited this report in his "Medicine "translated" as fatburning). Since October Wars" and quoted Wallace Sampson, If we should shrink from chamomile tea 1999 we have not seen any more advertise­ M.D., editor of the Scientific Review of because it contains "large numbers of ments by this firm, but whether this was due Alternative Medicine (SRAM), as his source chemical compounds," logic would apply

68 May/June 2001 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER LETTERS TO THE EDITOR the same fear to the tomato, which is con­ Chiropractic The New England Journal of Medicine sumed in far greater quantities. Ginger is reported 106,000 deaths per year from pre­ consumed as a food, stir-fried, candied, or Retired chiropractor Samuel Homola's arti­ scription drugs, equivalent to a fully loaded pickled, and nobody worries about it. Yet cle in the January/February 2001 issue con­ 747 going down every other day. Yet we let a consumer take ginger capsules to alle­ firms several beliefs that 1 have held for years: seem to accept that as reasonable while viate motion sickness or morning sickness, the majority of chiropractors arc quacks who detractors of chiropractic care like Homola and anti-herb zealots wail that this is a base their practices on a pscudoscientific try to convince the public the sky is falling. "risky health gamble." One would almost belief system; a mere handful of them have If chiropraaic care were as dangerous as think that the expectation of benefit is a abrogated quackery; and there isn't anything he would have us believe, malpractice pre­ suspected carcinogen. that even the scientifically oriented ones can mium costs would make practice prohibitive. When dietary supplements have been do to help backaches that practitioners of a My medical doctor friends are envious of my shown by science, rather than innuendo, to number of other modalities can't do. As premium, less than $2,000 yearly for cover­ pose a serious risk of harm to normal indi­ Professor William Jarvis and odiers have age of one to three million dollars. That viduals, the FDA can and will prohibit often stated, the profession has existed for should settle the question of safety instantly, their sale. Contrary to Allen's claim that more than a century without having made a since premiums are based on actual experi­ toxic aristolochia "can still be readily single contribution to the understanding or ence, not innuendo and rhetoric. obtained," it has been banned, along with furthering of human health. The answer to the question in the article other species containing aristolochic acid title is: "Absolutely not, the good part of chi­ and even plants that could be contami­ Kurt Youngmann ropractic outweigh any bad by many orders nated with aristolochia. Northbrook, Illinois of magnitude."

Wendy L. Applequist, Ph.D. R. Dean Harman, DC Missouri Botanical Garden After reading about the misdeeds of chiro­ Harman Chiropractic Center St. Louis, Missouri practic practice in the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, I, San Mateo, California for one loathe these charlatans. Yes! Neck John Allen responds: manipulation is dangerous! My friend used to go to a chiropractor and now he has a perma­ After suffering from neck stiffness last year I My article "Herbal Medicines and Dietary nent discomfort along his vertebrae. From X- decided to seek chiropractic treatment for Supplements: A Risky Health Gamble" was rays it appears that the vertebra is splintered fast relief. My extensive scaicli fui a "good" intended to point out some potentially serious and now he must get an operation to correct chiropractor yielded a professional with risks associated with the use of these products this injury that I believe the chiropractor twenty years of experience and, I was told, an that proponents, understandably do not publi­ made. Of course die chiropraaor denies all excellent medical praaice record. cize. I specifically pointed out in my article that knowledge of this injury. It amazes me how Two weeks into treatment my pain there is reputable scientific evidence that the use they persuade people to come in on a lifelong started to dissolve. And to ensure a healthy of some herbal medicines can provide valuable basis for spinal adjustments. They try to con­ body he offered to perform, at no extra health benefits. However, ingesting herbal vince you that your back hurts and it's all a charge, a series of tests aimed at diagnosing medicines and dietary supplements is risky psychological ploy to get money in their own and preventing serious illness that I may because they are extremely heterogeneous: they wallets. I can say only one thing to the read­ incur. His test was simple. Extend my arm may contain almost anything or essentially ers: don't fall victim to the shady chiropraaor! forward and firmly resist his attempt to nothing at all. lower my arm using his right hand. During Ms. Applequist states, "When dietary sup­ Paul Dale Roberts that process he gently applied pressure with plements have been shown by science rather Department of Community the index finger of his left hand on my chest, than innuendo to pose a serious risk of harm to Services & Development abs, kidney, etc. If I failed to resist while his normal individuals, the FDA can and will FJk Grove, California index finger is direaed at a specific organ, prohibit their sale. " According to this logic, that particular organ is unhealthy. Curing consumers should take comfort in the knowl­ that sick organ is even simpler! In my case I failed to resist when he applied pressure on edge that if enough of them swallow a toxic Your article on chiropraaic by S. Homola my stomach. I had a severe ulcer (which I herb and are injured, the FDA will take concentrates on only the most negative, sen­ action to prevent others from suffering the previously indicated on a form I was asked to sational (but fortunately rare), dangers of fill regarding medical history). same injury Aristolochia is a perfect example manipulation. and illustrates my point; it was banned only One wonders why someone who claims He then reached for a neatly organized after it caused significant injury to a large to have spent forty-three years in the field kit filled with herbal supplements. After enough number of consumers. Contrary to Ms. would be so negative about it. carefully selecting a herbal supplement (said Applequist's assertions, this toxic herb is still While he quotes dire statistics, it was to cure ulcer), he asked me to hold it in my available because of the demand for it by left hand and in the meanwhile he would gullible consumers who reject the scientific evi­ Terrell who found that many of the reports perform the same test again on my stomach. dence of its toxicity and embrace, instead, a alleging damage by chiropractors turned out This time I resisted successfully. New Age "anything organic is good" supersti­ to be provided by other practitioners and lay tion. In my view, swallowing substances whose people. Just a few years back the LA Times With confidence, he explained the composition and effects are unknown repre­ reported a chiropractor caused a stroke in a befbre-and-aftcr event as a proof that his des­ sents behavior that is truly irrational 32-year-old screenwriter. Days later we ignated herbal supplement when carried by found it was caused by a pediatrician. the patient "created a magnetic field that

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/June 2001 69 LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

surrounded the body and directed its power Hagen claims. To place the differences in sibility way down in footnote #10. However, to cure the sick organ"! perspective. Smith, Glass, and Miller (1980) die footnote is rather carefully hedged: "This He asked me to buy his expensive kit and cite studies that report "The differences in result could simply mean that people who when confronted with skepticism he tried to achievement caused by decreasing the size of believe in the paranormal are more likely than assure me of the integrity of his product! a school classroom from thirty to fifteen chil­ others to watch these programs. However, the As a physicist I did not know whether to dren is about 0.15 standard deviation units" findings are consistent with the conclusions of laugh or to cry! (p. 88), and "In elementary school, the earlier studies...." In fact, despite the mis­ effects of nine months of instruction in read­ leading "however," no number of "earlier stud­ Mohammad Ghaffari ing achievement is about 0.67 standard devi­ ies" with "consistent findings" will dislodge the Tucson, Arizona ation units" (p. 88). alternative explanation they present. In her zealous attack on the validity of Furthermore, we aren't told here whether meta-analysis as a research tool, Hagen leaves viewers of other kinds of shows arc more or Psychotherapy Research the reader with the uncorrected false impres­ less likely to profess sympathy to paranormal sion that psychofJicrapy is an unproved com­ beliefs. Would we turn our ire on, say, The Because it is likely that readers of the modity with trivial effects. In the 1940s and News Hour with Jim Lehrer or even / Love SKEPTICAL INQUIRER are apt to be self- 1950s graduate students in psychology were Lucy if we found that viewers of these pro­ proclaimed skeptics (like me), authors who smugly taught that with psychotherapy one- grams were also more likely to hold paranor­ contribute to the magazine bear a special third got better, one-third got worse, and mal beliefs (a possibility that is not strictly burden to research their facts and to present one-third remained die same. You can't fault inconsistent with the studies cited above)? them in a balanced fashion. Surely such the faculty of those years, because the Focusing exclusively on a few "standout" pro­ authors must realize that when they preach research did not really begin until the mid- grams that some skeptics may find distasteful to a congregation of skeptics their words will 1950s. By the 1970s and 1980s enough good skews the results into near-poindessness. be heard by habitually skeptical ears. data were available to change the nature of 1 submit that the article, as printed in SI, Therefore I was amazed to read Margaret received wisdom on the issue. Today die leads readers into a post-hoc fallacy. There's Hagen's revisionist history of psychotiierapy studies number in the thousands, and just nothing here to suggest that The X-Files research, which she trumpets as a "sterling example" of a point she was trying to make informed scholars no longer question the or other "paranormal" shows inculcate para­ about the use of meta-analysis in studying benefits of psychotherapy. It is surprising, normal beliefs among those who wouldn't the effects of childhood sexual abuse therefore, when so many years later, people otherwise subscribe to them. It might be fair ("Damaged Goods?" January/February continue to misrepresent the history of the to conclude that television caters to (or even 2001). saga, and to echo what people (who then had panders to) viewers who've demonstrated reason not to know any better) were saying paranormal inclinations, but unless we can Hagen tells us that before 1977 "Decades nearly a half century ago. Old myths die produce a sizeable population who'd admit of research failed to discern any reliable rela­ hard! to getting their education on such matters tionship between psychotherapy and the exclusively from these shows, the authors Julian Meltzoff, Ph.D. wellbeing of countless patients" (p. 58). She simply don't have a case. is simply wrong about this. In our widely cited book entitled Research in Psychotherapy Richard C. Conner (1970), Meltzoff and Kornreich reviewed TV-Paranormal Links Upper Marlboro, Maryland 101 controlled studies on the outcome of psychotherapy. There was no such thing as Questioned meta-analysis of therapy studies at that time. It was very disappointing to see that your In "Science Indicators 2000" (January/ We appraised each of these studies individu­ extract from the National Science Board's February 2001), the authors claim that "... ally and reported that 80 percent of them report on "Belief in the Paranormal or (studies suggest that) the way television pre­ yielded positive results. In the ensuing years Pscudoscience" itself incorporated one of the sents paranormal subjects does have an effect many more research studies were published, most common fallacies of pseudoscience— on what viewers believe." The examples pre­ and supported our conclusions. Yet Hagen sented simply do not support this rather inferring causation from correlation. tells us that because of the lack of evidence audacious claim. The fact that watchers of programs such ". . . mental health practitioners turned to as The X-Files are more likely to endorse meta-analysis to justify their livelihood and Iht audiors cite studies indicating that paranormal beliefs tells us nothing about the reassure their patients" (p. 58). Here she was viewers of programs such as the ever-popular role of the media in fostering such beliefs. It referring to die early paper by Smith and target The X-Files are more likely titan others is just as (if not more) likely that people who Glass (1977) on meta-analysis. to "condone paranormal beliefs," mat such endorse paranormal beliefs are more likely to stories are more likely to be believed when want to watch such programs, as it is that Smith. Glass, and Millers (1980) defini­ not properly disclaimed, and that "Some such programs cause them to hold such tive meta-analysis was published as a book. fans of The X-Files find the show's storylines beliefs. The Benefits of Psychotherapy. They analyzed 'highly plausible.'" This emphatically does the results of 475 controlled outcome studies not prove that these viewers came by tlieir The proviso that these findings arc "tenta­ diat contained 1,766 effect-size measures. beliefs merely from watching these shows. tive and require replication" entirely misses the The difference between groups treated by People may simply prefer to watch shows point. No amount of replication of simple cor­ any method and untreated controls averaged mat reflect their own previously formed relations such as this will tell us anything. 0.85 standard deviation units. This far world views. Bob Roshier exceeds the "very small" positive effects diat In fairness, die audiors do admit this pos­ Durham, England

70 May/June 2001 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

Driving Out Exorcisms "demons" diat plague them. with many so-called exorcisms, but it does not do good service to enlightenment to Daniel R. Barnett muddle the facts. I enjoyed reading Joe Nickell's excellent Vice-President, North Texas Skeptics commentary on a case of alleged demonic Dallas, Texas Rev. Martin Buote possession and exorcism in 1949 Saint Anne's Rectory ("Exorcism: Driving Out the Nonsense," References New Bedford, Massachusetts January/February 2001). Although Nickell Hale, A.S., and N.R. Pinninti. 1994. Exorcism- presents strong and compelling arguments resistant ghost possession treated with Joe Nickell replies: that attribute supposed supernatural phe­ clopcnthixol. British Journal of Psychiatry 165: I appreciate Mr. Barnett's praise and the useful nomena to mental disturbances and simple 386-388. comments he has provided. (Space constraints trickery, I think his article would have been Schendel, E.. and R.C Kourany. 1980. Caco- typically force me to focus primarily on the case enriched by medical observations of more demonomania and exorcism in children. Journal of Clinical Psychiatry 41 (4): 119-123. at hand, allowing only minimal introductory recent cases of alleged spirit possession. and supplementary material) A 1980 report authored by two psychia­ I also appreciate Rev. Buote's comments, but trists from Vanderbilt University Medical The guidelines of 1614 regarding exorcisms while he seems anxious to quibble I must do Center stated that some children who were were a great step forward out of the morass likewise. 1 didn't state that the "only" updating supposedly possessed by demons exhibited of magic and superstition which plagued the of the exorcism guidelines occurred in 1999; I such traits as poor relationships with peers, folklore and popular religion of the time. A was citing a revision that was significant aggression and/or violent outbursts, sleeping good amount of diis is still around, and, of enough for the Vatican to call attention to it. As difficulties, and auditory/visual hallucina­ course, makes a ready storyline for many a the Associated Press reported "The novelty tions. The authors observed many of the TV program or Hollywood movie. Since appears largely in the cautions offered to exor­ same phenomena demonstrated by the sub­ that time, the Church has tried to distin­ cists to take psychiatric medicine into account. " ject of the 1949 exorcism, but they guish phenomena with a natural explanation And while the phrase "strange tongue" in attempted psychiatric intervention on dieir from those which cannot be explained by die the ritual is not necessarily the same as subjects instead of seeking assistance from best science and medicine of the age. That "unknown tongue" (glossalalia), it was not I Roman Catholic priests. this has not always been observed in practice, but priests in the 1991 case who were I will readily admit. While- Nickel) mentioned thai many impressed when the "possessed" girl chanted, early cases of possession were probably due Joe Nickell states that it was only in 1999 "Sanka dali. Booga, booga. " 1 am often mind­ to disorders such as epilepsy or Tourette's that the 1614 guidelines were updated. ful of the biblical injunction (Matt. 23:24) not syndrome, pharmacology may also play an Consider the following: to "strain at a gnat, and swallow a camel" increasing role in treating alleged demoni­ acs. I have found one case of alleged spirit 1. "In the first place, the exorcist possession from Great Britain where a should not believe too readily a person is young Indian male was treated with an obsessed by a demon, but should take note Kiki's Comment of those signs by which an obsessed person anti-psychotic drug that apparently suc­ may be distinguished from those laboring After reading Martin Gardner's "Facilitated ceeded in suppressing possession-related under some illness, especially of a psychi­ phenomena where repeated exorcism ses­ atric nature." From the Roman Ritual, Communication: A Cruel Farce" (January/ sions failed. 1952 edition, my translation. February 2001), I conducted a highly scien­ tific experiment, having been inspired by the While the Roman Catholic Church has 2. "(The exorcist) ought to ascertain the signs by which a persons possessed can sentence, "The facilitator assists him in retooled its policies governing exorcism in be distinguished from one who is suffering locating keys she is sure he intents to hit." the light of modern medical knowledge from melancholy or some other ill­ (What could be more scientific?) concerning psychiatric disturbances, I have ness...." Roman Ritual, 1925 edition, been investigating an increase in possession translation of Rev. Philip T. Weller. The With my characteristic modesty, I claims and exorcisms among charismatic, word melancholy should be understood assumed the role of the "facilitator" and a evangelical Christians in the United States, with the meaning it had in medicine in the readily available subject was Kiki, our jet- early rwemieth century. Great Britain, and other nations. Pastors black cat. and counselors who perform such spirit 3. "Possession is not lightly to be taken Eureka! The system worked! It was a for granted. Each cases is to be carefully "seemingly miraculous breakthrough," to expulsions (often referred to as "deliver­ examined and great caution to be used in further quote from the article. ance") do not answer to the Vatican, and distinguishing genuine possession from they are often reluctant to consider medical certain forms of disease." The Catholic Kiki expressed a liking for raw liver, and explanations for what appear to be posses­ Encyclopedia, 1909 edition, article when asked to sum it up in one word her sion-related phenomena. "Exorcist" by RT. Toner. This is Toners scholarly opinion of die Crosslcy-Bilden, etc. paraphrase of the pertinent material from claims, Kiki unhesitatingly began to paw out: I'm concerned that many believers with the Roman Ritual of his day. BULLS undiagnosed mental disorders seeking inter­ but unfortunately at this very moment vention from these practitioners could run Glossolalia is not the same thing as "... power died and we will never know what the risk of having their illnesses exacerbated, the ability to speak with some facility in a rather than alleviated, by rituals for deliver­ Kiki was going to express, as she has lost strange tongue or to understand it when spo­ ance or exorcism. It is for the relief of such interest in further tests. ken by anodicr," which is one of the criteria individuals that skeptical analysis and med­ Patrick J. Leonard ical advances should continue to hunt the in the Roman Ritual There is much hucksterism associated Braintree, Massachusetts

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/June 2001 71 LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

(P.S.—I would have Kiki sign but she is in (psychological) arts involving gamesmanship. lous concept of "thermodynamic probability." the litter box.) And this kind of playfulness often seems lost L.F. Koons to and forgotten by die hard-nosed scientific Tuskegee, Alabama types, who take pseudoscience so seriously Why Paranormal Beliefs? from being immersed in a strict, rigid skepti­ cism that diey feel the need to go to excruci­ Jeffrey Victor's review of Paranormal Beliefs: A ating lengths witli scientific methodology in Injustice to Kepler Sociological Introduction by Erich Goode order to debunk them. The people who enjoy (January/February 2001) contained one these activities generally don't really care if Thaddeus M. Cowan's statement that "the slightly puzzling statement. Victor suggests they are true" science or not. Pseudoscience is, idea that images are an outward projection of that the book "challenge[s] the preconcep­ for them, simply ... fun! the mind through the eyes of observer was tions of some skeptics that paranormal beliefs first proposed by Johannes Kepler" (Letters, Michael Wren persist due to ignorance, irrational thinking, January/February 2001) does Kepler an Chicago, Illinois and inadequate science education." Intrigued, injustice. According to Encyclopaedia we read further to find the real reasons, and Britannica, Kepler observed that every point learn that paranormal explanations "are much on a luminous body in the field of vision more dramatic and entertaining than scien­ Entropy and Nature's Laws emits rays of light in all directions, but only tific explanations," that they "embody very those rays enter the eye that impinge on die ancient and enduring symbolism and I believe that Professor Lambert (Letters, pupil. The rays are then refracted and meet themes," and that they "support anti-elitist January/February 2001) protests a bit too again at a single point on the retina (15m sentiment against the dominance of scientists much in his comments on Zoran Pazameta's Edition, vol. 22, page 506). Kepler thereby and scientific belief systems." To me, those all earlier article, "Laws of Nature: A Skeptics founded the modern study of vision. Guide." It is impossible to discuss the mat­ sound like irrational reasons for belief, so ter, adequately in the compass of a short let­ Don Keith where exactly is the promised challenge? ter, but I offer the following, along with the Waterloo, Ontario On the other hand, I reluctantly agree with admission that it is vastly oversimplified. Canada both Victor and Goode that more science edu­ cation by itself is unlikely to help much. Lambert states that entropy is simply an indicator or energy change. Even from the Paul N. Hilfinger classical point of view tbis is an understate­ Objection Overruled! Associate Professor ment. From the classical standpoint the over­ Dept. of Electrical Engineering all change in entropy accompanying a process M.L. Howard (Letters, November/ and Computer Sciences may be taken as a measure of the capacity for December 2000) quibbles with my use of the University of California spontaneous change that was lost in the tide "lawyer" in reference to Phillip Johnson Berkeley, California occurrence of the process. In general it is not (Conference Report on the New Paranatural simply related to the energy change corre­ Paradigm, July/August 2000, p. 13). Although sponding to real processes. The expansion of he concedes that the tide is technically cor­ Pseudoscience is ... Fun! helium into a vacuum corresponds to a signif­ rect, Howard identifies himself as an attorney icant change in entropy but to a trivial change and worries that he and others of his profes­ in energy. The reverse can be true for mechan­ sion might incur some guilt by association I have been a faithful reader of SKEPTICAL ical changes in systems with low friction. with Johnson. He complains that lawyers INQUIRER for over a decade and initially have been unfairly portrayed and that my use became interested because I, as an educated Classical thermodynamics only permit­ of the "L" word might in some way con­ layperson with a background in philosophy, ted the evaluation of entropy changes and tribute to this. He suggests that Johnson be was irritated by many other laypersons who left open the matter of whether the concept referred to as Professor of Law, as he is not confused pseudoscience with real science and of an absolute value of the entropy of a sys­ currendy practicing law. My report did men­ failed to understand the differences between tem had meaning. In the statistical approach, tion that Johnson was at UC-Berkeley. Since them. But the excessive seriousness of the entropy—the same entropy, changes in lawyers arc trained by law professors (who in debunkers and my own experience with which are considered in the classical many cases are former lawyers, like Johnson), those who dabble in the pseudosciences has approach—is a measure of the number of would this change of labeling really provide made me want to speak out just a little ways the constituent particles of a system the remedy Howard seeks? against the debunkers. may be distributed over available microstates without there being any perceptible differ­ Pseudoscientific activities such as palm­ ence in the measurable macroscopic proper­ Donald Mainfort istry, graphology, Tarot cards, crystal ball gaz­ ties of the system. These microstates may be Minneapolis, Minnesota ing, fortune-telling, psychic readings, astrol­ energy levels or they may be positional. ogy, reading horoscopes, and the like, may be viewed as comparable to playing board games Given the inapplicability of statistical like Monopoly, Clue, or checkers. They entail methods to macroscopic systems, it is true (hat Women Skeptics: a certain playful relationship with the world, associating entropy with die disorder of a We're Out Here! of the kind suggested by Herbert Marcuse in room can be misleading. If done carefully, Eros and Civilization (1955) and by Theodore however, such an approach provides a useful I'm a newcomer to SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Roszack in The Making of a Counter Culture analogy that can help die neophyte to under­ and have recently read several back copies, (1969). Pseudoscientific activities arc really stand the significance of the seemingly nebu­ some from 1999, some from 2000. I just

72 May/June 2001 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER LETTE RS TO THE EDITOR

finished the January 2001 issue. A gentle­ sities that skeptical women aren't around. to suspect its accuracy for dating material man in one of the older issues 1 read wanted We're here, and we question. Trust me. twenty-five to fifty years old. to know why there aren't more women The second omission, and most impor­ Maggie Valentine Inskeep skeptics "out there." tant, was that the K-Ax dating method is Pagosa Springs, Colorado We're here, and in large numbers. There known by scientists to be unreliable for dat­ is the mistaken assumption, at least within ing volcanic rock laid down less than the circle of learned readers and contribu­ 500,000 (five hundred thousand) years ago, tors to SI whose letters and articles I sam­ Age-Dating Distortions and thus, paleontologists don't use it for pled, that one must have a degree or three to dating recent flows, and certainly not be a "skeptic." I recently came across an article in "Answers flows only twenty-five to fifty years old I'm a grocery checker in a conservative in Genesis," {AiG-U.S. Weekly News 20 because there would not be enough argon small town in Colorado. My friend "K" is a January 2001), entitled "Radioactive 'dating' to measure reliably. singer in California. "D" works in radio and failure," by Andrew Snelling, Ph.D., adjunct Still, even if the samples did contain such television here in Colorado. "B" sells teal professor of geology at the Institute for an extraordinary amount of argon-40, it is estate in Tucson. "L" upholsters furniture in Creation Research in San Diego. According probable that either the team actually took Houston. We share ideas and trade articles to his online bio at the Answers in Genesis old samples, or the samples of fresh lava con­ regularly through mail and e-mail concern­ Web site, Snelling holds a B.S. in Applied tained inherited argon-40 from the heating ing the absurd, the "New Age," and the Geology from the University of New South of older deposits lying beneath. This has trendy "medical" quackery. None of us has a Wales in Australia. The bio doesn't mention been known to happen. But wc can't know degree, at least in science or psychology, etc. where he received his Ph.D., and I can find any of this from the sketchy information in We are all atheists and skeptics. no evidence on the Internet of where he Snelling's article. For extraordinary claims, might have received one. And we question. Anything and every­ one should submit extraordinary evidence. thing. Mostly, of course, we question the However, after reading his article, I real­ Of course, Snelling knows that many insistence of the "masses" to believe what so ized that it was a classic example of how cre­ in the general public, especially true be­ obviously is not (cannot be) true. But wc ation "scientists" deceive the general public. lievers, will never think for themselves, but question other things as well. Are the toma­ In the article, Snelling laid out seemingly will rely on pseudoscicntific reports like his toes in that "sundried" tomato quiche really convincing evidence that the potassium- for their "facts." dried in the sun? Or are they dried indoors argon (K-Ar) dating method scientists use to This is the kind of "science" they want in dehydrators? Not that it really matters measure the age of volcanic rock is flawed schools to teach our kids! (especially since "roasted" garlic seems to be and wholly unreliable (no pun intended, but Ref.: http://answersingenesis.org/homc/ the big thing now). But if they're really dried it is a good one). area/magazines/docs/cenv22n 1 _dating_ in the sun, how is it done? How do they keep Snelling pointed out that the age of lava failurc.asp?srcFrom=aignews contaminants out? Why is "Healing Touch flows from several eruptions of New Zealand's Therapy" called that if the "expert" doesn't Mt. Ngauruhoe were measured by a reputable Max T Furr really "touch" the client? Shouldn't it be laboratory, and found to date to 0.27 to 3.5 (± Richmond, Virginia called "Hovering Hands Therapy?" And 0.2) million years. According to Snelling, what, exactly, is it supposed to "heal?" Why these were the same lava flows that were do so many continue to believe that the observed to have been created by eruptions "good old" American diet is good for them? between twenty-five and fifty years ago. The letters column is a forum And why, after continuing to consume this Now, to the uninitiated, this appears to for views on matters raised in diet for decades, do they then insist that their be convincing evidence that scientists are resulting poor health is the will of some previous issues. Letters should claiming Earth and fossils to be far older unseen supreme being? than they really arc, thus lending evidence be no more dian 225 words. Yes, we're out here. We're just vasdy out­ for a young Earth which, creationists would Due to die volume of letters numbered, that's all. And we tend to keep have us believe, suggests evidence for the not all can be published. truth of Genesis (illogic noted). But it was our opinions to ourselves unless we know Address letters to Letters to the we're in safe company. not the facts given in the article that deceives, but what was left out. SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. I personally question SKEPTICAL Editor, INQUIRERS seemingly unquestioned loyalty to Snelling never mentions the names of the Send by mail to 944 Deer Dr. die AMA (and its "conventional wisdom") "researchers" who took the samples. But this NE, Albuquerque, NM and the FDA. While I'm no more a fan of is only important to anyone wanting to some of the absurd "alternative" medical prac­ investigate the scientific credibility and 87122; by fax to 505-828- tices out there than SI, I can at least sec that integrity of the team. Most of the time, if 2080; or by e-mail to let- names are given, a short Internet search can the interests of "Conventional Medicine" do [email protected] (include name not always lie in the health of die patient. satisfy the investigation. and address). Sorry, just being a skeptic. Snelling gave a rather simple explana­ And the FDA? Sure, they always have our tion of how the K-Ar dating method works, best interests at heart. ... but omitted two very important points. In short, never assume that because more First, he failed to mention that the half-life women don't hold lucrative positions in sci­ of potassium-40 is known to be 1.300 mil­ ence and math departments at major univer­ lion years. This fact alone should cause one

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER May/June 2001 73 THE COMMITTEE FOR THE SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION OF CLAIMS OF THE PARANORMAL AT THE CENTER FOR INQUIRYHNTERNATIONAL (ADJACENT TO THE STATE UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK AT BUFFALO) AN INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION Network of Affiliated Organizations International ARGENTINA. CAIRP. Enrique Marquez. Director. E- 202. Succ. Beaubien Montreal. Quebec H2G 3C9 jugakujnScc.nao.ac.jp. Japan Skeptics. Business mail: deschaveOcvtci.com.ar Jose Marti 35 - "C Canada, www.sceptiques.qc.ca. Center for Academic Societies, Japan 5-16-9 Buenos Aires (1406), Argentina.www.cairp.org. CHINA. China Association for Science and Tech­ Honkomagome, Bunkyo-ku Tokyo 113-8622 AUSTRALIA. Canberra Skeptics. Canberra nology, China. Shen Zhenyu Research Center, Japan. Australia. Peter Barren. President. PO Box 555, P.O. Box 8113, Beijing China. Hong Kong KAZAKHSTAN. Kazakhstan Commission for Civic Square ACT 2608 Australia. Australian Skeptics, Hong Kong. Brad Collins. P.O. 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George Agogino, Dept. of Anthropology, Eastern New Jersey and linguistic sciences. Brown Univ. . New Mexico University Donald Goldsmith, astronomer; president. Gary P. Posner, M.D.. Tampa, Fla. Gary Bauslaugh, educational consultant. Center for Interstellar Media Daisie Radner. professor of philosophy, SUNY, Buffalo Curriculum, Transfer and Technology, Victoria, B.C.. Alan Hale, astronomer, Southwest Institute for Space Michael Radner, professor of philosophy, McMaster Canada Research, Alamogordo, New Mexico University. Hamilton. Ontario, Canada Richard E. Berendzen. astronomer, Washington. D.C. Clyde F. Herreid. professor of biology, SUNY, Buffalo Robert H. Romer. professor of physics. Amherst College Martin Bridgstodc, lecturer. School of Science, Griffith Terence M. Hines, professor of psychology. Pace Milton A. Rothman, physicist Philadelphia, Penn. University, Brisbane. Australia University, Pleasantville, N.Y. Karl Sabbagh. journalist Richmond, Surrey, England Richard Busch, magician/mentalist Pittsburgh, Penn. Michael Hutchinson, author; SttmcAi INQUIMR repre­ Robert J. Samp, assistant professor of education and Shawn Carlson. Society for Amateur Scientists, East sentative, Europe medicine. University of Wisconsin-Madison Greenwich, CT Philip A. lanna, assoc. professor of astronomy, Univ. of Steven D. Schafersman. asst. professor of geology, Roger B. Culver, professor of astronomy, Colorado Virginia Miami Univ.. Ohio State Univ. William Jarvis, professor of health promotion and Bela Scheiber,* systems analyst Boulder, Colo. Felix Ares de Bias, professor of computer science, public health, Loma Linda University, School of Chris Scott statistician, London, England University of Basque, San Sebastian, Spain Public Health Stuart D. Scott Jr, associate professor of anthropol­ Michael R- Dennett writer, investigator. Federal Way, I. W. Kelly, professor of psychology. University of ogy. SUNY. Buffalo Washington Saskatchewan Erwin M. Segal, professor of psychology. SUNY, Sid Deutsch. consultant. Sarasota. Fla. Richard H. Lange. M.D.. Mohawk Valley Physician Buffalo ). Dommanget. astronomer, Royale Observatory. Health Plan, Schenectady, N.Y. Carta Selby, anthropologist/archaeologist Brussels, Belgium Gerald A. Larue, professor of biblical history and Steven N. Shore, associate professor and chair, Dept. Nahum J. Duker, assistant professor of pathology. archaeology. University of So. California. of Physics and Astronomy, Indiana Univ. South Bend Temple University William M. London, consumer advocate. Fort lee. Waclaw Szybalski, professor, McArdle Laboratory, Barbara Eisenstadt psychologist, educator, clinician. New Jersey University of Wisconsin-Madison East Greenbush, N.Y. Rebecca Long, nuclear engineer, president of Georgia Ernest H. lavas, psychoanalyst Cambridge. Mass William Evans, professor of communication, Georgia Council Against Health Fraud. Atlanta. Ga. David E. Thomas, physicist mathematician. Peralta. State University Thomas R. McDonough. lecturer in engineering, New Mexico John F. Fischer, forensic analyst, Orlando, Fla. Caltech. and SETI Coordinator of the Planetary Sarah G. Thomason. professor of linguistics. Robert E. Funk, anthropologist New York State Society University of Pittsburgh Museum & Science Service James E. McGaha. Major, USAF; pilot Tim Trachet journalist and science writer, honorary Eileen Gambrill. professor of social welfare, Uiiversity Joel A. Moskowitz. director of medical psychiatry, chairman of SKEPP, Belgium. of California at Berkeley Calabasas Mental Health Services. Los Angeles. Neil deGrasse Tyson, astrophysicist. Princeton Sylvio Garattini, director. Mario Negri Pharmacology Jan Willem Nienhuys, mathematician, Univ. of University and the Hayden Planetarium Institute, Milan, Italy Eindhoven, the Netherlands Richard Wiseman. Senior Research Fellow in psychol­ Laurie Godfrey, anthropologist. University of John W. Patterson, professor of materials science and ogy. University of Hertfordshire Massachusetts engineering. Iowa State University •Member. CSICOP Executive Council Gerald Goldin. mathematician. Rutgers University. James Pomerantz, Provost and professor of cognitive 'Associate Member, CSICOP Executive Council I Center for Inquiry International '... fo promote and defend reason, science, and freedom of inquiry in all areas of human endeavor."

CENTER FOR INQUIRY- INTERNATIONAL P.O. Box 703 Z* Amherst, NY 14226 Tel.: (716) 636-1425 E2 CENTER FOR INQUIRY—MIDWEST United Labor Building 6301 Rockhill Rd., Suite 412, Kansas City, MO 64131 Tel.: (816) 822-98^0 CENTER FOR INQUIRY—WEST 5519 Grosvenor Ave., • Los Angeles, CA 90066 Tel.: (310) 306-2847 CENTER FOR INQUIRY—MOSCOW Astro-Entomology? Ant-like Space • Professor Valerii A. Kuvakirt ' 119899 Russia, Structure Previews Death of Our Sun . Moscow, Vorobevy Gory, Moscow State University, From ground-based telescopes, this cosmic object—the glowing remains - . Philosophy Department • of a dying. Sun-like star—resembles the head and thorax of a garden- ITER FOR INQUIRY—EUROPE variety ant. But this dramatic Hubble telescope image of the so-called Dr. Martin Mahner "ant nebula" (Menzel 3, or Mz3) shows even more detail, revealing the A/heilger Weg 11 "ant's" body as a pair of fiery lobes protruding from the dying star. D-64380 Rossdorf Gerrjjany Tel.: +49 6154 695023 Credit: NASA. ESA and the Hubble Team (STScl/AURA) D

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