GARDNER ON PRIMAL SCREAM THERAPY • THE 'FACE' ON MARS • ALTERNATIVE MEDICINE •,&! Published by the Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal THE COMMITTEE FOR THE SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION OF CLAIMS OF THE PARANORMAL AT THE CENTER FOR INQUIRY-INTERNATIONAL (ADJACENT TO THE STATE UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK AT BUFFALO) • AN INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION Paul Kurtz. Chairman; professor emeritus of philosophy, State University of New York at Buffalo Barry Karr, Executive Director Joe Nicked, Senior Research Fellow Lee Nisbet. Special Projects Director FELLOWS James E. Alcock,* psychologist. York Univ.. Henry Gordon, magician, columnist, Toronto Joe Nickell,* senior research fellow, CSICOP Toronto Stephen Jay Gould, Museum of Comparative Lee Nisbet* philosopher, Medaille College Jerry Andrus, magician and inventor. Albany. Zoology, Harvard Univ. Bill Nye, science educator and television host Oregon Susan Haack, Cooper Senior Scholar in Arts Nye Labs Marcia Angell, M.D.. former ed tor-in-chief, and Sciences, prof, of philosophy. University James E. Oberg, science writer New England Journal of Medicine of Miami Loren Pankratz, psychologist, Oregon Health C. E. M. Hansel, psychologist, Univ. of Wales Robert A. Baker, psychologist. Univ. of Sciences Univ. Al Hibbs, scientist Jet Propulsion Laboratory Kentucky John Paulos, mathematician, Temple Lniv. Stephen Barrett M.D., psychiatrist, author, Douglas Hofstadter, professor of human Steven Pinker, cognitive scientist, MIT consumer advocate, Allentown, Pa. understanding and cognitive science, Indiana Milton Rosenberg, psychologist Univ. of Barry Beyerstein,* biopsychologist, Simon Univ. Chicago Fraser Univ.. Vancouver, B.C., Canada Gerald Holton, Mallinckrodt Professor of Wallace Sampson, M.D., clinical professor of Irving Biederman, psychologist, Univ. of Physics and professor of history of science. medicine. Stanford Univ. Southern California Harvard Univ. Amardeo Sarma, engineer, head of dept. Susan Blackmore, psychologist, Univ. of the Ray Hyman,* psychologist, Univ. of Oregon at T-Nova Deutsche Telekom West of England, Bristol Leon Jaroff. sciences editor emeritus. Time Henri Broch, physicist. Univ. of Nice, France Sergei Kapitza. editor, Russian edition. Innovationsgesellschaft mbH Headquarters, Jan Harold Brunvand. folklorist, professor Scientific American executive director, GWUP, Germany. emeritus of English. Univ. of Utah Philip J. Klass, • aerospace writer, engineer Evry Schatzman, president, French Physics Vern Bullough, professor of history, California Edwin C. Krupp, astronomer, director, Griffith Association State Univ. at Northridge Observatory Eugenie Scott physical anthropologist execu­ Mario Bunge, philosopher, McGill University Paul Kurtz,' chairman, CSICOP tive director, National Center for Science John R. Cole, anthropologist, editor. National Lawrence Kusche, science writer Education Center for Science Education Leon Lederman, emeritus director, Fermilab; Thomas A. Sebeok, anthropologist, Frederick Crews, literary and cultural critic Nobel laureate in physics linguist. Indiana Univ. professor emeritus of English, Univ. of Scott Lilienfeld, psychologist, Emory Univ. Robert Sheaffer. science writer California, Berkeley Lin Zixin, former editor. Science and Elie A. Shneour, biochemist, author, F. H. C. Crick, biophysicist. Salk Inst, for Technology Daily (China) director, Biosystems Research Institute, Biological Studies, La Jolla, Calif; Nobel Prize Jere Lipps, Museum of Paleontology, Univ. of La Jolla, Calif. laureate California. Berkeley Dick Smith, film producer, publisher, Terrey Richard Dawkins, zoologist. Oxford Univ. Elizabeth Loftus, professor of psychology, Hills, N.S.W., Australia Cornells de Jager, professor of astrophysics, Univ. of Washington Robert Steiner, magician, author, Univ. of Utrecht, the Netherlands Paul MacCready, scientist/engineer, El Cerrito, Calif. Bernard Dixon, science writer, London, U.K. AeroVironment. Inc., Monrovia, Calif. Jill Cornell Tarter, astronomer. SETI Institute, Paul Edwards, philosopher, editor, John Maddox, editor emeritus of Nature Mountain View. Calif. Encyclopedia of Philosophy David Marks, psychologist City University, London. Carol Tavris, psychologist and author, Los Kenneth Feder, professor of anthropology. Walter C. McCrone, microscopist, McCrone Angeles, Calif. Central Connecticut State Univ. Research Institute Stephen Toulmin, professor of philosophy, Antony Flew, philosopher, Reading Univ., U.K. Mario Mendez-Acosta, journalist and Univ. of Southern California Andrew Fraknoi, astronomer. Foothill College, science writer, Mexico City, Mexico Marilyn vos Savant, Parade magazine con­ Los Altos Hills. Calif. Marvin Minsky, professor of media arts and tributing editor and CBS News correspon­ Kcndrick Frazier, * science writer, editor, sciences, M.I.T. dent SKEPTICAL INQUIRER David Morrison, space scientist. NASA Ames Steven Weinberg, professor of physics and Yves Galifret. vice-president Affiliated Research Center astronomy, Univ. of Texas at Austin; Nobel Organizations: France Richard A. Muller, professor of physics, Univ. Prize laureate Martin Gardner,* author, critic of Calif.. Berkeley Marvin Zelen, statistician. Harvard Univ. Murray Gell-Mann, professor of physics, Santa H. Narasimhaiah, physicist president. Fe Institute; Nobel Prize laureate Bangalore Science Forum, India * Member, CSICOP Executive Council Thomas Gilovich, psychologist Cornell Univ. Dorothy Nelkin, sociologist New York Univ. (Affiliations given for identification only.) Visit the CSICOP Web site at http://www.csicop.org The SKEPTICAL INQUIRER (ISSN 0194-6730) is published bimonthly by the Committee for the Articles, reports, reviews, and letters published in the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER represent the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal. 1310 Sweet Home Rd.. Amhera, NY views and work of individual authors. Their publication does not necessarilr constitute an 14228. Printed in U.SA. Periodicals postage paid at Buffalo, NY. Subscription prices: one year endorsement by CSICOP or its members unless so stated. f«x issues), $35: two years. $58: three years. 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Or call toll-free 1-800-634-1610 (outside U.S call 716-636- Manuscripts, letters, books for review, and editorial inquiries should be addressed to 1425). Old address as welt as new are necessary for change of subscribers address, with six Kcndrick Frazier. Editor. SKEPTICAl INQUIRER, 944 Deer Drive NE. Albuquerque, weeks advance notice. SKEPTICAL INQUIRER subscribers may not speak on behalf of CSICOP NM 87122. FAX 505-828-2080. For Guide for Authors, sec page 64 in the September / or the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. October 2000 issue, or send a fax request to the Editor. It is also available on the Web at Postmaster: Send changes of address to SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. Box 703. Amherst. NY http://www.csicop.org/si/guide-for-authors.litml. 14226-0703. Skeptical Inquirer May / June 2001 • VOL 25, NO. 3 J Mii.tmina ARTICLES CSICOP'S 25TH ANNIVERSARY 22 The Shrinking Filedrawer 46 From the Editor's Seat: 25 Years On the Validity of Statistical of Science and Skepticism Meta-analyses in Parapsychology KENDRICK FRAZIER It may be easier to explain parapsychological experiments on the basis of chance than has been previously thought. 50 Science vs. Pseudoscience, DOUGLAS M. STOKES Nonscience, and Nonsense Twenty-Five Years of CSICOP 26 The Pokemon Panic of 1997 JAMES ALCOCK In 1997, an episode of the cartoon Pokemon allegedly induced seizures and other ailments in thousands of 55 CSICOP Timeline: A Capsule Japanese children. Though popularly attributed to History in 85 Easy Steps photosensitive epilepsy, the episode has many of the hallmarks of mass hysteria. KENDRICK FRAZIER BENJAMIN RADFORD 32 The Antinous Prophecies COLUMNS A Nostradamoid Project The prophecies of Nostradamus are said to foretell events EDITOR'S NOTE 4 centuries in his future. Are the prophecies merely verbal ink blots to which humans "fit" events? Here's a test using NEWS AND COMMENT random simulations. Skeptics Challenge Psychic Mediums on CNN's Larry King Live I CLIFFORD A. PICKOVER Evolution Returns to Kansas: Board Supports Science Standards / Urban Legend Makes International News / Fox Special 37 Common Myths of Questions Moon Landing But Not Its Own Credulity / Richard Wiseman Tries to Tune into Ever-Elusive ESP / Faster than Light? Children's Behavior Well. Yes and No S A number of false beliefs about children's behavior are very common among parents and the lay public. This article CONFERENCE REPORT summarizes scientific findings and applies critical thinking Gobbledygook and Charm: to show what's tripped up so many of us. Still the Right Formula for Selling Snake Oil CATHERINE