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Politicka Misla 12

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Politicka Misla 12 \orge Ivanov Voved vlijaele na polobata i odnosite na narodite koi iveele tuka no i Na{iot region vo minatoto naj- na odnosite na nadvore{nite ak- ~esto se spomnuval kako bure barut, teri na balkanskite zbidnuvawa. prostor koj poradi netrpelivosta i Tie presvrti bile povrzani so konfliktite ja zagrozuval bezbed- promenite vo sosedstvoto, odnosno nosta na regionot, no i na konti- Mediteranot i sredna Evropa, no i nentot. Vakvata sostojba naj~esto so promenite vo odnosite na mo}ta proizleguvala, me|u dru- na golemite sili, oso- goto, i od politikata di- beno dokolku nastanu- vede et impera, koja, prvo, vale kako posledica na vlegla vo diplomatskiot zasiluvawe ili slabe- re~nik, a potoa i vo nau- ewe na onaa golema sila kata za me|unarodnite koja gi poseduvala teri- odnosi i kako poim bal- toriite od ovoj region, kanizacija. Izvorno, smis- ili bila vo negovo sosed- lata na latinskiot poim stvo i kako takva imala Divede et impera,cum radix zna~ajno vlijanie na sos- et vertix imperii in oboedi- tojbite i odnosite na entium consens rata non narodite od ovoj prostor. sunt ozna~uvala metod na Tokmu na ovoj region starorimskite osvojuva- ~estopati se povlekuva- ~i vo upravuvaweto so Rimskata le granici na podelbi koi bile Imperija koja vo prevod bi glasela: rezultat na konfliktite zabelea- Podeli i vladej, dokolku korenot i ni kako borbi i delbi me|u Istokot vrvot na vlasta ne izrasnuvaat od i Zapadot. Za malo potsetuvawe, soglasnosta na podanicite. Istata tuka se slu~ila podelbata na Rim- politika ja primenuvala i Habsbur- skoto Carstvo na isto~en i zapaden {kata Monarhija vo vladeeweto so del; tuka se odvivale konfliktite narodite pod svojata kruna, a podoc- me|u vizantiskite i germansko- na taka se imenuvala i sevkupnata rimskite vladeteli vo sredniot politika na golemite sili kon dru- vek; tuka e i raskolot na hristijan- gite narodi. skata crkva na katoli~ka i pravo- Na na{iov prostor, voobi~aeno, slavna; konfliktite me|u hristi- imalo premnogu istorija a premalku janstvoto i islamot povtorno se geografija. Tuka se slu~uvale dra- tuka; isto se odnesuva i za site onie mati~ni presvrti koi su{testveno borbi i spletki me|u evropskite Godina 3, br. 12, dekemvri 2005 Skopje str. 1 \orge Ivanov sili i narodite koi iveele vo me|usebni konflikti me|u balkan- Otomanskata Imperija poznati kako skite narodi i faktor koj go koris- isto~no pra{awe. tele golemite sili vo politikata Po Prvata svetska vojna i is~ez- za pottiknuvawe na razliki i kon- nuvaweto na glavnite akteri na flikti me|u niv, za da moat preku isto~noto pra{awe (se raspadnalo svoeto vlijanie da obezbedat pri- Otomanskoto Carstvo, Avstro-Un- sustvo, ili predominantno vlijanie garskata Monarhija i Carska Rusi- vo odnos na drugite akteri. ja), se mislelo deka na Balkanot }e Intelektualnite eliti na bal- prestanat podelbite Istok-Zapad. kanskite narodi razvivale sop- Podocnenite istoriski okolnos- stveni vizii i aspiracii pri {to ti, iako vo poinakov me|unaroden gi sozdale proektite za svoi golemi kontekst, po Vtorata svetska vojna, dravi. Pritoa evropskite sili pridonesuvaat povtorno regionot silno se infiltrirale i gi koris- da stane del od novite podelbi tele etno-nacionalisti~kite idei usloveni so promenite na odnosot na lokalnite eliti za da gi zado- na sili. Imeno po politikata na volat svoite sopstveni potrebi. Od sojuznicite od antihitlerovata geopoliti~ki, religiozni i drugi koalicija od Jalta, na ovoj po{irok motivi Rusija ja poddruvala ide- prostor po~nuva studenata vojna so jata za Golema Bugarija, Francija, proklamiraweto na Trumanovata Golema Srbija, Velika Britanija, doktrina za pomo{ i poddr{ka na Golema Grcija... Turcija i Grcija, poradi nivnata Mirot na Balkanot bil moen, zagrozenost od Sovetskiot Sojuz. So edinstveno, dokolku nekoja golema ovaa politika SAD }e ja otpo~ne imperijalna sila ja vr{ela dol- podgotovkata za prezemaweto na nosta na arbitar me|u narodite i tradicionalnoto britansko prisus- religiite i vospostavuvala nekoj tvo i vlijanie vo Sredozemjeto i interkulturalen poredok. So veko- zemjite koi imale najgolemo stra- vi toa bile Otomanite preku nivni- te{ko zna~ewe od aspekt na spre~u- ot model na miletskiot sistem. vaweto na sovetskoto prisustvo i Podocna Avstro-Ungarija i golemite prisustvoto vo Mediteranot. evropski sili preku svoite balkan- Pokraj navedenovo na{iot pros- ski sojuznici nosele odluki za toa tor vo minatoto bil naseluvan so koja definicija za narod vai na narodi od razli~ni etni~ki grupi, koja teritorija. Po Vtorata svetska taka {to nadvore{nite i vnatre{- vojna Tito gi diktiral pravata na nite preselbi bile mnogu izrazeni. igra, prinuduvaj}i gi rivalskite Konfliktite me|u doma{nite i zaednici na religii, jazici i naro- stranskite zavojuva~i doveduvale di na ravnotea. Po raspadot na do ~esti teritorijalni i politi~ki Jugoslavija ovaa zada~a vo 1995 promeni koi ja zgolemuvale izme{a- godina }e ja prezemat Amerikan- nosta na narodite na ovoj prostor. cite, no poradi projavenata pri- Nepostoeweto na etni~ki granici strasnost i zazemaweto na strana, so tekot na vremeto stanala voobi- balansot }e izostane. Do dene{en ~aena pojava koja bila povod za den na narodite na ovoj prostor, str. 2 Politi~ka misla Voved ednostavno, ne im e dozvoleno da rezultati na reformite vo site najdat sopstvena vnatre{na ramno- sferi na sekojdnevniot ivot se tea. predizvikuva permanentna poli- Sogledano od dene{en aspekt, ti~ka nestabilnost. Vakvite dra- vistinskata pri~ina za konflik- vi nemaat ni mo} (a moebi i ne tite na Balkanot, koi su{testveno sakaat) da go spre~at prekugra- vlijaat vrz bezbednosta na regio- ni~niot organiziran kriminal (vo not, se sostoi vo faktot {to ne novi uslovi samo mafijata na Bal- uspea preminot od otomanskiot po- kanot ostana multietni~ka). Toa, od redok na besteritorijalniot Milet druga strana, rezultira so mnogu so kvazidravnata avtonomija vo baven ekonomski razvoj koj gi hrani zapadniot sistem na nacionalni site vidovi ekstremizam, koi, pak, dravi so cvrsti teritorijalni se povolna po~va za prisustvo i na granici. Multikulturnoto op{te- me|unarodniot terorizam i religi- stvo na Balkanot se zasnovuvalo na ozniot fanatizam. neteritorijalen sistem, koj go pot- Vo takvi okolnosti regionot tiknuval me{aweto na narodite, projavuva zaedni~ki interesi. Toa, religiite i jazicite. Evropskiot pred s¢, se izrazuva vo silnata model na cvrsto iscrtani nacio- opredelba za ~lenstvo vo EU i nalni dravi, so jasni granici i NATO. Me|utoa, celiot region (koj teritorii, poa|a od celosno poi- ostana von EU i NATO) e vo nedo- nakvo mislewe. Toj model na teri- statok na vreme. Otvoreno e pra{a- torijalna nacionalna drava od weto dali oddelni zemji }e go zapaden tip vo XIX i XX vek se do~ekaat polnopravnoto ~lenstvo pokaa posposoben za ivot i po- vo NATO i EU ili }e se raspadnat silen vo stopanski i voen pogled. po dlabokite etni~ki linii, koi s¢ Multikulturnite carstva so niv- posilno gi prodlabo~uvaat poli- nite komplicirani mehanizmi se ti~kite akteri koi uporno ja promo- raspadnale koga }e dojde tenden- viraat etnopoliti~kata mobili- cijata kon politi~ko-kulturna ho- zacija vo vnatre{nite odnosi. mogenizacija. Zasega, nadvore{nite faktori i Ova homogenizacija na del od akteri ostanuvaat slepi na ovoj regionot, namesto vo XIX, ni se slu- proces i namesto da go spre~at, ~uva na po~etokot na XXI vek. Toa e preku svojot neutralen pristap, tie pri~inata za nere{enite statusni s¢ pove}e gi povtoruvaat gre{kite pra{awa vo regionot i sozdavaweto od minatoto so nivnata pristras- na slabi dravi bez volja i mo} da nost i priklonuvawe samo kon edna sprovedat koreniti reformi. Bez strana. Godina 3, br. 12, dekemvri 2005 Skopje str. 3 \orge Ivanov Abstract The history of the dynamics and developments in the Balkans, in terms of security, is volatile. Major characteristic underlining this process are involvement of foreign actors and ethnic heterogeneity of the region. Combining both was the model for providing regional security, the examples are the Otoman and Hapsburg Empires. The brake up of these models brought the nation-state concept in the Balkans. However, building nation-states in the Balkans and having in mind the characteristics of the history of dynamics and development is more likely to raise tensions, than bring security. Learning from the past the region recognizes the new models for security within the frame of EU and NATO. And again this process is underlined by the combination of involvement of foreign actors and ethnic heterogeneity of the region. str. 4 Politi~ka misla SODR@INA / CONTENTS Voved \orge Ivanov Introduction Gjorge Ivanov Regionalna bezbednost/ Regional security Gledano od Venera ili od Mars - Bezbednosnite procenki na EU i SAD i mestoto na Balkanot vo niv _________________________________ 11 Kiril Nejkov Seen from Venus or Mars - Security Assessments of EU and USA and the Balkans place within their frameworks Kiril Nejkov Vojna na rezolucii Parlamentarni blokadi vo pregovorite za Kosovo _______________ 21 Du{an Relji} War of Resolutions Parliamentary Blocades in the Kosovo Negotiations Dusan Reljic Stavovite vo Srbija za Kosovo _______________________________ 29 Ana Ple~a{ Attitudes in Serbia on Kosovo Ana Plecas Ulogata na reformite na bezbednosniot sektor vo ostvaruvaweto na regionalnata sigurnost vo Jugoisto~na Evropa _____________ 37 Mi{o Dokmanovi} The Role in the Security Sectors Reforms in Accomplishing the Regional Security in South-Eastern Europe Miso Dokmanovic Promenite vo pristapot kon voenite zlostorstva vo Srbija, Crna Gora i vo Republika Srpska __________________ 45 Aleksandar Spasenovski Changes in the
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