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Quarterly Market Report JANUARY 2019

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Quarterly Market Report JANUARY 2019 AUSTIN OFFICE | Q4 2018 Quarterly Market Report JANUARY 2019 Supply & Demand Net Absorption Completions Vacancy EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3.0 16.0% Vacancy continues to tighten 2.5 14.5% Millions (SF) Austin’s overall vacancy rate dropped to 7.6% in Q4 2018, a decrease of 60 basis points quarter- 2.0 13.0% over-quarter, and down 40 basis points year- 1.5 11.5% over-year. Net absorption was positive 1,394,523 sq. ft., the second-highest quarterly absorption 1.0 10.0% amount recorded by NAI Partners going back to Q4 2000. The highest quarterly amount of 0.5 8.5% absorption occurred during the third quarter 0.0 7.0% of 2015 at 1,557,530 sq. ft. New construction delivered during the fourth quarter stood at 1 -0.5 5.5% million sq. ft., bringing the year-to-date total to -1.0 4.0% 2.9 million sq. ft. Full-service average asking Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 rents grew by $0.63 per sq. ft. quarter-over- 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 quarter to $35.43 per sq. ft., and up $0.75 per sq. ft. compared to this time last year. Market Indicators Current Prior Quarter Year Ago Austin economic indicators Q4 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2017 Austin’s unemployment rate remains low at Vacant Direct 6.8% 7.4% 7.3% 2.8%, well below the state and national rates, Vacant Total 7.6% 8.2% 8.0% both of which stood at 3.7% in November. The Available Direct 9.8% 10.9% 10.1% metro’s labor force has expanded an annualized 3.3% year to date, compared with the state’s Available Total 11.6% 12.8% 11.8% 2.2% growth. Recent performance by sector Net Absorption (SF) 1,394,523 736,740 758,088 was mixed. Growth was primarily led by health Leasing Activity (SF) 1,326,914 1,966,001 3,0 97,621 and education services, which accelerated at a Construction (SF) 3,974,852 4,533,189 4,159,194 soaring annualized rate of 18%, creating 5,200 Deliveries (SF) 1,001,011 538,832 421,986 positions. Professional and business services, and leisure and hospitality experienced small Avg Asking Rent (Gross) $35.43 $34.80 $34.68 reductions after growth earlier in the year, while Inventory (SF) 86,409,193 85,408,182 83,460,945 the financial activities sector continued to shed jobs. Home affordability in the Austin metro area increased. The percentage of homes sold that the median-income household could afford increased from 53.1% in the second quarter to 54.5% in the third quarter. As of November, the median home price in Austin was $308,153. HOUSTON | AUSTIN | SAN ANTONIO www.naipartners.com/austin AUSTIN OFFICE | Q4 2018 Quarterly Market Report MARKET OVERVIEW Vacancy tightens and net absorption soars Deliveries Vacant space in the Austin market contracted to Class A Class B 7.6% at the end of Q4, a decrease of 60 basis points 1.4 quarter-over-quarter and 40 basis points compared 1.2 to this time last year. Austin’s office market has Millions (SF) remained robust, with overall vacancy rates 1.0 remaining at or below 9.0% for the last nine quarters (Q4 2016). With so few vacant spaces, the best ones 0.8 are leasing quickly, as Austin’s economy has been changed from a state government and university- 0.6 driven town to a fast-growing, emerging job hub for tech and innovation. In 2018, Austin was ranked No. 0.4 1 among the 50 best places in America for starting 0.2 a business by Inc.’s Surge Cities Index. The report further describes Austin growing four times faster 0.0 than most of Silicon Valley—drawing talent from Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 all over the country resulting in thriving computer hardware, enterprise software, and, increasingly, consumer tech startups. Construction Construction boom continues Class A Class B As of Q4 2018 there was close to 4.0 million sq. ft. 5.0 of space under construction and another 1 million 4.5 sq. ft. delivered in the Austin office market, including 4.0 buildings that are primarily owner-occupied. In Millions (SF) 3.5 addition, Apple plans to build a $1 billion office campus in North Austin, not far from where it already 3.0 has a major corporate hub. The company announced 2.5 that the new 133-acre facility will be able to handle 2.0 about 5,000 employees when it opens and could 1.5 grow to house up to 15,000. Apple already employs 6,200 people in Austin, the largest group outside of 1.0 its headquarters in Cupertino, California. The new 0.5 hires will make Apple Austin’s largest employer. 0.0 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Local market experts say the selection by the tech 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 giant of Austin isn’t a shocking choice given the city’s impressive universities, robust lineup of tech companies, and the investment Apple has already made in the community. The project will be completed Net Absorption in phases totaling roughly 3 million sq. ft. Class A Class B Overall 2.0 Leasing activity remains steady 1.5 Leasing activity ended 2018 with a total of 6.8 million Millions (SF) sq. ft. of transactions in the Austin market—65% of which was fulfilled by Class A space and 34% 1.0 of Class B space—down from 10.8 million sq. ft. in 2017. The largest lease signings occurring in 0.5 2018 included the 320,095-sq.-ft. lease signed by Facebook at 3110 Esperanza Crossing in the North 0.0 submarket; the 307,771-sq-ft. deal inked by Indeed at 200 W 6th St in the CBD; and the 301,074-sq.-ft. -0.5 lease deal by Parsley Energy at 300 Colorado St, -1.0 also in the CBD. Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 www.naipartners.com/austin 2 AUSTIN OFFICE | Q4 2018 Quarterly Market Report Investment sales activity Real Capital Analytics data reports year-to-date office sales volume for 2018 in the Austin area at Leasing Activity $1.5 billion. The fourth quarter sales volume was Class A Class B $359.7 million compared to fourth quarter 2017 at 3.5 $507.7 million, resulting in a year-over-year quarterly 3.0 volume change of -29.2%. The primary capital Millions (SF) composition for buyers in 2018 was made up of 2.5 62.3% institutional, and 19.7% private. For sellers, the majority was 49.1% institutional, and 35.5% private. 2.0 In December, Brandywine Realty Trust bought out its joint venture partner, New York-based DRA Advisors. 1.5 The Brandywine Partner Buyout TX Portfolio 2018 1.0 involved 12 office buildings totaling 1.5 million sq. ft. The portfolio included four buildings at Barton Skyway 0.5 (1501 S. MoPac Expwy.) in the Southwest submarket, 0.0 seven buildings at River Place (6500 Riverplace Blvd.) Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 in the Northwest submarket, and one building at 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Four Point Centre (11305 Four Points Drive) in the Far Northwest submarket. It has been reported that 5% of Brandywine’s income is from Austin, but that may Historical Investment Trends - Sales Volume jump to 18% by the end of 2019. Quarterly Volume 12/31/18: $359,742,681 Year-over-Year Change: -29.2 Source: Real Capital Analytics Average asking rents at an all-time high Quarterly Volume Office asking rents in Austin are unsurpassed at 1,200 $35.43 per sq. ft., up $0.63 per sq. ft. quarter-over- quarter and $0.75 per sq. ft. year-over-year. Although Millions 1,000 concessions such as free rent and tenant improvement allowances make posted rents less meaningful as a 800 market indicator, the price of Austin’s office space is climbing noticeably. The highest-quality space, 600 with the best location, and ease of accessibility will generate the highest rents. Asking rates for existing 400 Class A space in the CBD is at an average of $50.67 per sq. ft. The buildings with the most available Class 200 A office space in the CBD include 600 Congress Ave., One American Center (137,531 sq. ft.); 401 Congress 0 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Ave., Frost Bank Tower (121,761 sq. ft.); 111 Congress 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Ave., One Eleven (106,456 sq. ft.); and 98 San Jacinto Blvd., San Jacinto Center (100,741 sq. ft.). There are two Class A buildings under construction in the Average Full-Service Asking Rent CBD with available space; 200 W. 6th St., Block 71 (365,000 sq. ft.); and 1400 Lavaca St., SXSW Center Class A Direct Class A Sublease Class B Direct Class B Sublease (100,524 sq. ft.). These four existing buildings, and $45 two under construction comprise 2.8 million sq. ft. $40 $40.05 with 932,470 sq.
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