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A Time Series Study on Marvel from 2000 - 2009: Marvel’S Movies Impact Relative to Stock Price

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A Time Series Study on Marvel from 2000 - 2009: Marvel’S Movies Impact Relative to Stock Price 9th Global Business Conference February 7, 2015 Journal of Global Business Volume 4, Issue 1 De La Salle University, Manila, Philippines A Time Series Study on Marvel from 2000 - 2009: Marvel’s Movies Impact Relative to Stock Price Junius W. Yu De La Salle University [email protected] Abstract: Marvel studios have provided an interesting study for many business students particularly generating more than $1.5 billion box office receipts for the movie “Avengers” last 2012. Disney bought Marvel for $4.24 billion and the question arises from the valuation of the company relative to the acquisition price. The study focuses on Marvel Entertainment’s impact from movie releases relative to stock price. A time series analysis was used in gathering Marvel’s daily stock price changes from 2000 – 2009. This was also used in parallel to 20 movies released by Marvel within that time period. The behavior of the market was examined using the GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) model and the EWMA (Exponentially Weighted Moving Average). A linear regression was used in testing the hypothesis on whether gross sales of movies and movie release (development, pre-production, production, post-production and release) have any significant to changes in stock price. GARCH (1,1) was used to measure the outliers for the signaling effect relative to huge changes on the time series data. The data results provided no empirical evidences due to relatively large p- values; however the spike of increase in changes were identified due to the release of Spider- Man 2 in 2004 and Iron Man in 2008. The conclusion of the study reflected on the impact Marvel has on mainstream Hollywood perhaps not on the valuation, but the future business earnings it may generate in the next decade. 1. INTRODUCTION Each movie tells a story, but what is the story “You become part of a bigger universe, you just behind the movie story? Do Marvel stocks increase for don’t know yet.” – Col. Nick Fury each Marvel movie announcement or there is simply no A plethora of Marvel characters have made it to significance at all? the big screen whether it is Spider-Man spinning webs to Wolverine unsheathing his claws to Iron-Man hovering 2. HISTORICAL BACKGROUND OF above the skies to Captain America throwing his mighty THE STUDY shield. Did you ever wondered how it all begun and how Marvel Comics originally started as Timely interesting would it be to study the Marvel phenomenon? Publications in 1939 when it was founded by Martin How long can they sustain their box office success? Each Goodman along with his brother Abraham Goodman. time they release a movie does it really affects the Their first product was Marvel Comics # 1 that sold over company valuation? 800,000 copies. Their best seller was Captain America There are relatively few who do study a creative Comics # 1 that sold over 1 million copies during the onset industry like Marvel Entertainment and perhaps Disney of World War II. saw the potential to capitalize on that. Disney group of After the War, a downward trend occurred for companies bought Marvel for $4.24 billion with the the superhero genre and replaced by others from crime, approved merger of both companies. Essentially Marvel drama, horror, western and more that resulted to the existing shareholders received $30 valuation or about transition of Timely into Atlas Comics. The 1950s Atlas 0.745 Disney shares for each Marvel share they owned. In Comics had massive layoffs and title reduction due to the 2010, the company was officially delisted from the New loss of their distribution network with American News York Stock Exchange with its ticker MVL no longer Company. Hence they were force to go to their competitor trading in the stock market. Independent News that is owned by National/DC Comics Blade was the very first to be released when it for distribution. was licensed by New Line Cinema. It allowed other The 1960s brought back Marvel Comics under studios to license Marvel characters to the big screen. 20th the leadership of Stan Lee who rejuvenated the franchise Century Fox gambled on the X-Men in 2000 when in making the Marvel Comics trademark stamp on their Marvel’s financials were in a doldrums. This allowed comic books. Their first major breakthrough was the them to secure a nexus of contracts in having movie rights publication of Fantastic Four and it heralds the start of the to the X-Men group in perpetuity as long as they keep on Silver Age with the introduction of other Marvel producing on a timely interval from two to three years characters notably the Hulk, Daredevil, X-Men, Spider- from the last movie. The gamble paid off and Fox Man, Iron-Man, Avengers, Doctor Strange and more. continues to produce them up to this day with X-Men: In 1968, Martin Goodman sold Magazine Apocalypse in 2017. Spider-Man followed in 2002 with Management Corporation with subsidiaries like Marvel Sony Columbia and had the same contract with Fox. Comics and all of his publishing businesses to Perfect 6 9th Global Business Conference February 7, 2015 Journal of Global Business Volume 4, Issue 1 De La Salle University, Manila, Philippines Film & Chemical Corporation (Cadence) owned by to exist among stock price changes. The primary Martin S. Ackerman. He remained with the company as advantage of studying individual investment behavior in publisher until 1972 when he was replaced by his son an experimental setting opens up the portal of testing Charles “Chip” Goodman. Cadence also owns DePatie- hypotheses about the existence of manipulative causality Freleng Enterprises (DFE Films) and later incorporated as between accounting event and investor behavior (Sunder Marvel Productions in 1981 with David DePatie as 1973). president and CEO until 1984 wherein he was replaced by This is connected with Birnberg “focus” as his Margaret Loesch. unit of analysis wherein he postulated that the units range In 1986, Cadence sold Marvel Entertainment from the study of individuals to the study of the Group to New World Pictures. Howard the Duck was the environment that acts upon accounting. It is clustered only license movie in 1986 and actual production was further in different segments from the behavior of made for Punisher in 1989. In 1989, New World Pictures individuals to small groups to organization and finally to (later New World Entertainment) has financial trouble and environmental conditions (Birnberg 2011). For instance, was forced to sell Marvel Comics to Ronald Perelman’s the behavior of investor affects small groups initially group of investors under the Andrews Group for $82.5M. based on “major” events that occur from organization’s Andrews Group’s parent company is MacAndrews & action, hence creating an implosion from a micro level to Forbes. Ronald Perelman later acquired New World a macro level. Pictures and absorbed Marvel Productions as well. In order to understand the dynamics of investor In 1991, Marvel Entertainment Group went behavior, the best way is to exemplify Eugene Fama’s public with 40% of their stock and forward $40M Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) that emphasized the proceeds to the Andrews Group. This led to the purchase efficient information in financial markets. The hypotheses of Fleer by Marvel for $265M in 1992. The following accentuated that efficiency is differentiated from “weak”, year, Marvel Entertainment Group acquired Toybiz with “semi-strong” and “strong”. “Weak” pertains to past 46% ownership in exchange for a perpetual royalty free public information that is already reflected on the traded exclusive in the toy production of Marvel Characters. Avi assets. “Semi-strong” relates to both past information and Arad joined Toybiz with 10% ownership after the deal to relevant current information that promulgated on the manage the business, while the rest of ownership still falls traded assets. “Strong” instantaneously reflects on to the on Isaac Perlmutter. Avi Arad also founded Marvel Films traded assets a priori knowledge that may be hidden to the in 1993 by becoming the President and CEO. public (Fama 1965, 1998). In 1996, Marvel experienced the comic book In retrospect, the capital market equilibrium bubble and massive layoffs occurred despite earnings model was first used in 1996 to study the relationships of made from licensing. Corporate management struggle stock prices and stock splits by Fama, Fisher, Jensen and occurred between the Perelman/Andrews Group and Roll. Other studies that are related to my study involve the Perlmutter/Toybiz group with Carl Icahn joining the fray relationship between stock price changes and accounting for a three way dog fight. Perelman filed bankruptcy for changes with depreciation and investment credit. Even the company, while Icahn blocked the move.When the though, their study did not yield significance it however dust has settled, ownership pointed to the Toybiz group. provided empirical results on the changes of accounting In June 1998, Marvel Entertainment Group that affects stock prices (Kaplan and Roll 1972). merged with Toybiz as Marvel Enterprises, while the To substantiate further the capital market Fleer/Skybox and Panini were sold separately. With equilibrium model is the capital asset pricing model that Marvel Enterprises as the parent company, the presupposed that the mean and variance are utilized in the subsidiaries under the umbrella were Marvel Studios, selection of portfolios by all investors who are single Marvel licensing and publishing, Toybiz and Marvel period risk-averse utility of terminal wealth maximizing Characters Group. Marvel Studios begun licensing Marvel investors. With the presumption that there are risk free characters for movie production and the very first was interest rate, no taxes or transactions costs and all investors Blade with New Line Cinema.
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