CIVIL - MILITARY FUSION CENT RE

Afghanistan Review Week 17 24 April 2012 Comprehensive Information on Complex Crises

This document provides a weekly overview of developments in from 17 – 23 April 2012, INSIDE THIS ISSUE with hyper-links to source material highlighted in blue and underlined in the text. For more information Economic Development on the topics below or other issues pertaining to events in Afghanistan, contact the members of the Afghanistan Team, or visit our website at www.cimicweb.org. Governance & Rule of Law Security & Force Protection Economic Development Steven A. Zyck ► [email protected] Social & Strategic Infrastructure report on “Afghanistan: The Uncertain Economics of Transition” by Anthony Cordes- DISCLAIMER man of the Center for Strategic and International Studies says that preparation for the A economic aspects of the transition process in Afghanistan is being undermined by a lack The Civil-Military Fusion Centre of data. Reliable figures concerning population and gross domestic product (GDP) are unavail- (CFC) is an information and able, and different organisations’ estimates vary widely. In addition, Cordesman’s report, knowledge management organisa- which is labelled a “First Working Draft” notes that data on aid spending is likewise unavaila- tion focused on improving civil- ble given that donor institutions do not adequately report data, thus making it difficult to de- military interaction, facilitating termine how much may have been spent “on” Afghanistan and how much money actually was information sharing and enhancing provided “to” Afghanistan. While noting that Afghanistan’s economy is currently inflated by situational awareness through the international spending on security and development, Cordesman concludes that the lack of CimicWeb portal and our weekly meaningful data makes the economic impact of the transition process difficult to predict. The and monthly publications. report ultimately suggests that data must be gathered and that planning for the economic ele- CFC products are based upon and ments of the transition must be dealt with seriously and transparently, prioritising not only the link to open-source information amounts provided but also the impact and effectiveness of aid dollars. from a wide variety of organisations, Writing in Foreign Policy, Afghanistan’s recently-installed Minister for Rural Rehabilitation research centres and media outlets. and Development, Wais Ahmad Barmak, says that “[another] decade more is needed before However, the CFC does not endorse Afghanistan’s economy can generate a substantial proportion of its own budget” but notes that and cannot necessarily guarantee significant progress in social and economic development has been achieved in recent years. He the accuracy or objectivity of these particularly highlights national initiatives such as the National Solidarity Programme (NSP) sources. and suggests that continued support is needed, including from American firms, to develop licit CFC publications are inde- agriculture and agri-businesses in Afghanistan. pendently produced by Desk The latest opium assessment conducted by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime Officers and do not reflect (UNODC) finds that poppy cultivation is set to rise in nine Afghan provinces and remain NATO or ISAF policies or posi- steady in another eight; it is set to decline in only one of the country’s 34 provinces, according tions of any other organisation. to The Economist. With poppy cultivation rising, past alternative livelihood efforts, including the British government’s Food Zone programme, appear to face renewed challenges. In Hel- The CFC is part of NATO Allied mand province, where the Food Zone initiative was focused, poppy farmers and narcotics traf- Command Operations. fickers have proven adaptable, moving their fields away from the initiative’s target areas and relocating them to the North of the province. In doing so, they manage to undermine counter- narcotics efforts and expand an industry which has given rise to corruption and spiralling rates of drug addiction not only in Afghanistan but also in neighbouring countries. The US military is sending select Afghanistan-bound service members to agricultural trainings in California prior to their deployments. The trainings are held in California’s central valley, CONTACT THE CFC which has similar agro-climatic conditions and contains crops common to Afghanistan, includ- ing pistachios, almonds, wheat, pomegranates and grapes. The weeklong courses are run by a For further information, contact: consortium of American universities led by the University of California-Davis. While those Afghanistan Team Leader leading the trainings say they will not produce agronomists or expert farmers in five days, they [email protected] can help ensure that soldiers who interact with Afghans in rural areas are literate about the

challenges facing farmers. The Afghanistan Team [email protected]

In related news, the Associated Press (AP) reports that a 60-member Illinois National Gua rd unit has returned from Afghanistan, where it served as an Agribusiness Devel- Do You Have Too opment Team (ADT). The ADT members worked with 3,000 Afghan farmers, trained “e xtension agents” who help train and advise fellow farmers, and worked on forestry Much to Read? initiatives. The Illinois National Guard unit’s ADT responsibilities are passing to Na- tional Guard members from the US state of Wisconsin, who have been training for Listen to the CFC Afghanistan more than a year to take on the role, according to a separate AP report. Review Podcast on your computer, smartphone, tablet or other device. The director of the Nangarhar provincial agriculture department tells Pajhwok Afghan News that a decades-old fish farm has been washed away. The farm raised Afghan fish Click here to access the podcasts. varieties which sell for approximately USD 5 per kg, and its destruction is described as a commercial as well as cultural loss. Officials at Nangarhar University agriculture faculty indicate that the farm had been poorly managed. Two months ago many of the fish had been lost when the provincial power department attempted to rehabilitate a nearby dam. Lastly, Pajhwok reports that the price of one kg of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) in Kabul dropped from AFN 55 (USD 1.14) to AFN 45 (USD 0.93) over the course of the past week. This change is credited to the ample supply of LPG being imported via northern Af- ghanistan and a recent improvement in the weather, which had reduced demand for LPG, which is used primarily for cooking and heating. Prices for other commonly purchased commodities, particularly food and fuel, remained steady. A litre of diesel sold for AFN 63 (USD 1.30) in Kabul, and a litre of petrol cost AFN 65 (USD 1.35), the same as a week earlier.

Governance & Rule of Law Stefanie Nijssen ► [email protected]

oreign ministers from NATO and International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) member countries gathered together in Brus- sels on 19 April to discuss how the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) will be funded after the 2014 transition, according F to NATO’s website. The meeting, which was held in preparation for NATO’s upcoming summit in Chicago, also included Af- ghanistan’s foreign and defence ministers, the European Union High Representative, the United Nations Special Representative and the Foreign Minister of Japan. Some countries which are not members of NATO’s ISAF mission in Afghanistan, such as Russia and China, were asked to help meet the estimated USD 4.1 billion annual cost of maintaining the ANSF, according to Reuters. NATO’s Senior Civilian Representative in Afghanistan Simon Gass told Tolo News that the United States and non-ISAF countries, such as Ja- pan, , India and Gulf region states are expected to provide more than half of the required funding. NATO and ISAF countries (excluding the United States) will give USD 1.3 billion and the remaining USD 500 million will come from the Afghan government. Though the specific country breakdown of the figures was not disclosed, British Defence Minister Phillip Hammond stated the United Kingdom has already confirmed its pledge of USD 110 million. The Afghan and US governments have agreed on the contents of a long-awaited strategic partnership agreement which will define their relationship after most foreign troops leave at the end of 2014, The Guardian reports. Afghan President Hamid Karzai had earlier said that the long-term agreement being negotiated with the United States should specify a written commitment of at least USD 2 bil- lion, according to the Associated Press (AP). The Washington Post said that while the document pledges US financial assistance to Afghanistan through 2024, it does not detail explicit funding levels or address the controversial questions regarding long-term US ac- cess to military bases or troop levels. These issues will be negotiated in a separate deal sometime before 2014. The draft version of the Enduring Strategic Partnership Agreement, as the document is called, will first require approval from the Afghan and US legislatures. Afghan High Peace Council (HPC) members held talks with US officials and members of the US Congress on the latest political and security developments in Afghanistan, according to the Afghan Embassy in Washington, DC. The delegation, which was led by the council’s secretary-general, Masoum Stanikzai, briefed US officials within the Department of State and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) on the achievements of the peace council to date. Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said that the US government will continue to press Pakistan to put pressure on the Haqqani Network, which she believes is responsible for the attacks in Kabul on 15 April, according to Tolo News. She also spoke with Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar and discussed their shared responsibility to confront the insurgency. President Karzai also condemned the attacks but said that he will continue to address the Taliban as his brothers, according to Khaama Press. President Karzai said: “You did nothing for Islam, you did not work for Afghanistan’s independence and you did not work for its people, free- dom and development. You worked to prolong a foreign presence”. Lawmakers in Afghanistan’s lower house of parliament, the Wole- si Jirga, said the insurgents who engaged in the attacks were taking advantage of the government’s indistinct peace policy and safe haven in neighbouring countries, reports Outlook Afghanistan. Speaker of the House Abdul Rauf Ibrahimi accused the Taliban of hav- ing no intention to make peace with the Afghan government and recommended a review of the Afghan government’s peace strategy. In the western Afghanistan city of Herat, an activist group which calls itself the “Young Intellectuals Association” launched a peaceful demonstration and called on the government to clarify its position on the Taliban.

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The HPC and President Karzai met with a six-member delegation of the insurgent group Hezb-e Islami on 16 April to restart peace talks, a Humanitarian Update fortnight after the group announced it was suspending them, Tolo News reports. Ghairat Baheer, the son-in-law of Hezb-e Islami leader The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, led the delegation. According to the Los Ange- for Refugees (UNHCR) is reporting that it will join the les Times, the HPC General Secretary Stanekzai raised the idea of Swiss government in co-hosting an international con- amending the Afghan constitution to integrate the group’s concerns. ference from 2-3 May in Geneva on the Afghan dis- Stanekzai told reporters that the insurgent groups may be unhappy placement situation. The “International Conference on with some provisions of the eight-year-old document, but that “any the Solutions Strategy for Afghan Refugees to Support constitution will change at some point”. Such a move would be contra- Voluntary Repatriation, Sustainable Reintegration and ry to statements made by US officials who have insisted that any in- Assistance to Host Countries” will include discussions surgent group must accept the constitution if they are going to partici- on the reintegration of returnees in Afghanistan, capaci- pate in the peace negotiations. The article says the move may stir con- ty building, community-based development and pre- cern among Afghan and international officials who view the constitu- serving asylum space for refugees in neighbouring tion as a bulwark of democratic protections in a country with a history countries. Afghanistan, Iran and Pakistan will present a of harsh authoritarian government. new strategy at the conference which will, among other things, seek the commitment of the international com- The AFP is reporting that Afghanistan’s Taliban have issued a global munity to support countries that host Afghan refugees. appeal for donations. Complete with telephone hotlines and email ad- There are currently an estimated 1.7 million registered dresses, the appeal was posted on a Taliban website asking Muslims Afghan refugees still in Pakistan and 1 million in Iran. worldwide for money. The website states that the Taliban “are still waging legitimate Jihad single-handedly […] and is in dire need of financial assistance from the Muslim brothers worldwide for its military and non-military expenditures”. Abdul Waheed Wafa, director of the Afghanistan Centre at Kabul University told AFP that the appeal appeared to be part of a propaganda war to show their campaign is supported by the masses. Most Taliban funds are be- lieved to be generated from Afghanistan’s multi-billion dollar opium production. The Afghan government has also accused Pakistan’s intelligence agencies of funding the insurgency, a claim which the Pakistani government has denied. Afghanistan’s parliament said it will revisit its decision to appoint a minister to the president’s cabinet if accusations made by the country’s anti-corruption watchdog prove to be true, according to Tolo News. The head of the High Office of Oversight and Anti- Corruption (HOOAC), Azizullah Lodin, said that one of the nine recently-nominated cabinet ministers had been accused of embez- zling USD 70 million. Despite the allegations, all nominees won the vote of confidence from the Wolesi Jirga. In related news, Af- ghanistan’s Attorney General Office (AGO) has reportedly detained several officials from Hairatan’s Border Services Department who were accused of corruption. An anonymous source told Tolo News that 14 border officials, including the head of the Department, a National Directorate of Security representative, a Mustofiat representative, a cashier and head of Human Resources Section were among those arrested by the AGO. The Wolesi Jirga has approved the proposed budget for the current fiscal year, Pajhwok reports. Previously, the lower house refused to endorse the accounts due to uneven allocations to provinces and a hefty USD 80 million (3.9 billion AFS) bailout package for the Kabul Bank. According to ministry officials, the general budget for the current nine months of this year is USD 2.77 billion (AFN 133.6 billion), while the development fund amounts to USD 2.31 billion (AFN 111.2 billion). According to a separate article by Pajhwok, the Wolesi Jirga formally approved the strategic partnership deal between Afghanistan and India that was signed by President Hamid Karzai and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh last year. The strategic cooperation deal outlines India’s assistance in training and equipping Afghan forces as well as extending cooperation in other fields after the 2014 withdrawal of foreign troops. The assembly also approved two other pacts presented by the parliamentary foreign affairs commission. A joint statement issued by Afghan political party The National Front and a visiting US congressional delegation said Afghanistan’s government needs major changes ahead of the withdrawal of foreign forces, according to Tolo News. National Front leader Ahmad Zia Massoud advocated for a change to a parliamentary power structure, which he believes would be a better suited form of governance for Afghanistan.

Security & Force Protection Mark Checchia ► [email protected]

ustralian Foreign Minister Bob Carr and Defence Minister Stephen Smith vowed Thursday 19 April to keep combat troops in Afghanistan through 2014; this is an apparent about-face after Prime Minister Julia Gillard had said two days prior that troops A would come home earlier than planned, Agence France-Presse reports. The ministers made the pledge during a meeting with NATO counterparts to discuss details of the coalition’s plan to hand security control to Afghans over the next two years. Improve- ments to security in Uruzgan province, where most of Australia’s 1,550 troops are based, have demonstrated that the transition of con- trol to Afghan forces is achievable by the end of 2014, according to Carr. He added that “all of us, however, must continue to be pre- sent in support of the ANSF (Afghan National Security Forces) and be combat ready to do so until transition is finally complete at the end of 2014.” The Age reported that Gillard said in a speech on 17 April that most Australian soldiers would be withdrawn next year following significant security gains over the past 18 months.

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US government officials decried the actions of US soldiers who posed for photographs with dead and maimed Afghan insurgents, the Los Angeles Times reported. The incidents occurred in a 2010 deployment and were published by the Los Angeles Times. US Secretary of Defense Leon E. Panetta said the behaviour depicted in the photos “absolutely violates both our regulations and, more importantly, our core values.” White House Press Secretary Jay Carney called the soldiers’ behaviour “reprehensible,” and said President Obama would request a full investigation. ISAF commander Gen. John Allen and US Ambassador Ryan Crocker condemned the actions, call- ing them “morally repugnant”. Allen said US officials, ISAF and Afghan forces were working together “to resolve any issues related to improper treatment of remains.”

Soon after the insurgents began their coordinated attack on Kabul on 15 April, Afghans began updating their Facebook pages with the photo of a police commando who took part in the action, using his picture in expressions of praise for the military, The Guardian re- ports. Coordinated assaults on the Afghan capital parliament, diplomatic enclave and a military camp took the city by surprise, but so did the well-coordinated and effective actions of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). According to The Guardian, they quickly responded and ended insurgent attacks with only minimal help from ISAF. After the fighting ended, there followed an unprec- edented outpouring of support for the ANSF, which is more often criticised as corrupt and incompetent. Elite units, whose personnel are hand-picked from the regular units, are only a small percentage of Afghanistan's security forces, but they have provided hope that Afghanistan will be able to secure the country after 2014, when western combat troops are due to depart. In the wake of the coordinated attacks in Kabul, Khaama Press reports that some Afghan lawmakers have described the subsequent 18 April attack on the Afghan defence ministry as “embarrassing” and have urged the minister’s resignation. Moreover, senators say the final phase of the security transition process is to begin in July this year, but security officials are seen as unable to shoulder the bur- den and to ensure security. The call for Abdul Rahim Wardak’s resignation as defence minister came on 19 April, reported Tolo News, a day after an assailant in army uniform breached the ministry compound and opened fire; two soldiers were killed and seven others wounded. The Khaama article notes the Taliban claimed responsibility for the attack. An Afghan National Army (ANA) soldier was killed by NATO soldiers when he opened fire on a NATO convoy traveling to Kanda- har airport on 16 April, reports Tolo News. There were no NATO fatalities in the incident, he added. In another incident, security forces seized a motorbike full of explosive devices in Kandahar city, said provincial spokesman Faisal. No suspects were arrested in connection with incident. Faisal praised coordination among security forces and urged citizens to cooperate in their efforts. Military officials say a US Black Hawk helicopter crashed in Helmand province on 19 April during bad weather, killing all four American service members aboard. The crew were attempting to pick up Afghan police wounded in an improvised explosive device attack, the New York Times notes. A US official says the cause of the crash is under investigation but there is no indication that enemy fire brought down the helicopter.

Social & Strategic Infrastructure Rainer Gonzalez ► [email protected]

n 17 April, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India agreed on transit fees for the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline after long negotiations, reports The Express Tribune. Under the agreement, Pakistan will pay a transit fee to Af- O ghanistan of USD 0.5 per million cubic feet of gas per day (mmcfd) and India will pay the same amount to Pakistan. Although the agreement was reached by the representatives of the three countries, this still has to be signed upon approval by the governments and parliaments of each country. Initially, the negotiation revolved around three different forms of payments: payment in cash or kind, a fixed fee in dollars on the volume of gas supplied or a fee linked to the length of the pipeline. Afghanistan was pushing for a pay- ment in kind, but Pakistan ruled out this option. Finally, a fixed fee in dollars on volume of gas supplied was agreed at the aforemen- tioned rate, although Afghanistan demanded a transit fee of USD 0.54 per mmcfd and India was offering USD 0.45 per mmcfd. A further statement released by the Afghan Ministry of Mines added that Afghanistan will receive USD 400 million annually in transit fees, reports Khaama Press. Asim Hussain, Pakistani Minister for Petroleum and Natural Resources, confirmed that on 24 May 2012, the four countries involved in the implementation of the TAPI gas pipeline will hold a meeting to finalise the contractual agreement on the project after the Afghanistan, Pakistan and India have concluded negotiations for the transit fees, reports The Express Tribune. In related news, Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdimuhammadov and Pakistani Foreign Minister Hinna Rabbani Khar held a bilat- eral meeting to discuss the strategic energy sector, reports Trend. Besides the TAPI negotiations’ advances, Berdimuhammadov and Rabbani talked about opportunities to export Turkmen electricity to Pakistan via Afghanistan as well strengthening the cooperation in the construction industry and the agriculture sectors. Pakistan is also taking advantage of the gas price agreed for TAPI to renegotiate with Iran on the price the Iran-Pakistan (IP) gas pipeline, reports the Business Recorder. The IP gas price was set at USD 11 per mmcfd, whereas the TAPI gas price will be set between 45%-55% of the international Brent crude price. Likewise, Pakistan will not earn transit fees, as India is no longer involved in the project. In other news, officials from Takhar province believe that the Taliban are responsible for the poisoning of 140 school girls and their female teachers, reports Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. As a result of the incident, which has rekindled concerns on the fate of girls’ education in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of international troops, the students and female teachers were hospitalised with symptoms that included nausea, headaches and dizziness after they drank from a water tank. Investigators are analysing blood samples

24 April 2012 Page 4 of the sick girls as well as water samples from the water they reportedly drank. Although the Taliban have a weak presence in Takhar and have not yet claimed responsibility for the incident, investigators have strong suspicions of their involvement, as they openly op- pose school for girls and have been linked to similar incidents in the past. In addition, Faizullah Tawhidi, spokesman of the provincial governor, said that “some secret networks of the Taliban are active [in the province], and it is clear that they are trying to damage the society by resorting to different methods.” Tahidi added that the parents of the sick girls are insisting on sending their daughters back to the school to take take up classes again.

The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and the NGO Internews have released a comprehensive and multi- dimensional report on the telecommunication sector in Afghanistan entitled “The State of Telecommunications and Internet: Six Years Later (2006-2012)”. The report covers internet and telecommunications infrastructure; policy, services, accessibility and affordability; key players and operators; and legal and governance frameworks. The document, which draws on sector development over the past six years, aims to serve as an information and data bank and a baseline for future research and policy evaluation. Da Afghanistan Breshna Sherkat (DABS), the government-owned electricity Humanitarian Update company, announced the launch of electronic payments for electricity bills, reports Khaama Press. DABS have signed an agreement with a local bank, The Humanitarian Response portal have re- which has not yet been disclosed, for Afghans to pay their electricity bills di- leased a new Water, Sanitation and Hygiene rectly through their bank accounts. According to the officials of DABS, cus- (WASH) Cluster map indicating all points of tomers will eventually be able to pay through a short message service from contact per region on the WASH sector. their mobile phones. The programme, which will initially be implemented in Kabul and progressively extended to other parts of the country during the next six months, aims to save customers hours of waiting in long queues as well as reduce corruption and bribery. Safi Airways and the Bahraini company Gulf Air have signed an international codeshare agreement to jointly serve the Kabul-Bahrain route, reports Khaama Press. Under this agreement, both airlines will jointly market and serve the route six times per week. Gulf Air will add one flight to their newly-launched twice-per-week service, whereas Safi Airways will start the service with three flights per week. As a result of this new agreement, passengers flying interna- tionally, in particular those heading to Europe, Canada and the United States, will have access to a greater range of new one-stop services with shorter trans- it times. Source: Humanitarian Response.

Recent Readings & Resources

. “The Fate of India’s Strategic Restraint”, Brookings Institution, April 2012, by Sunil Dasgupta.

. “No Boutique State”: Understanding the Debate on Turkey’s Involvement in Afghanistan”, German Marshall Fund, 13 April 2012, by Şaban Kardaş.

. “The State of Telecommunications and Internet in Afghanistan Six Years later (2006-2012)”, United State Agency for Interna- tional Development and Internews, March 2012, by Javid Hamdard.

Afghanistan Events Calendar

. Field Security Management Course. The Centre for Safety and Development (CSD) will be holding its “Field Security Man- agement” course in Afghanistan from 13-15 May 2012. The course reportedly addresses topics such as the following: security management, context analysis, risk assessment, security strategies and procedures, contingency planning, incident reporting and the development of action plans. Further information is available here.

. Agricultural Development for Afghanistan Pre-Deployment Training. The United States Department of Agriculture (www.usda.gov) and a consortium of American universities deliver this training. The curriculum will meet the needs of all de- ploying United States Government personnel in support of the USG Agriculture Strategy in Afghanistan. The training is for United States Government personnel and will take place in Fresno, California on 18-23 June. Participants will be enrolled on a first come first serve basis. Contact Ryan Brewster, US Department of Agriculture, at [email protected] for further information. If you are a CFC account-holder and would like your event notice or publication to appear here, please send all relevant details to [email protected]. The CFC is not obliged to print information regarding publications or events it receives, and the CFC retains the right to revise notices for clarity and appropriateness. Any notices submitted for publication in the “Afghanistan Review” newsletter should be relevant to Afghanistan and to the CFC’s mission as a knowledge manage- ment and information sharing institution.

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