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Hysan Development Tactical 2H Amidst Rosy Outlook

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Hysan Development Tactical 2H Amidst Rosy Outlook 8 August 2018 Hong Kong EQUITIES Hysan Development 14 HK Outperform Tactical 2H amidst rosy outlook Price (at 08:50, 07 Aug 2018 GMT) HK$40.80 Valuation HK$ 77.79 Key points - DCF (WACC 4.6%, beta 0.5, ERP 6.0%, RFR 1.5%) The big picture is bright for Hysan’s retail and office portfolio as tenants’ 12-month target HK$ 54.23 sales growth exceeded 25% in 1H18, versus HK market at 13.4%. Upside/Downside % +32.9 Strong turnover rent should be able to offset higher expenses ratio and 12-month TSR % +36.4 vacating of ESPRIT prime shop at Leighton Centre. Volatility Index Low The company should achieve all-time high retail sales this year. GICS sector Real Estate Market cap HK$m 42,689 Market cap US$m 5,439 Event Free float % 58 The big picture is bright for Hysan’s retail and office portfolio, in our view, as 30-day avg turnover US$m 3.4 tenants’ sales growth exceeded 25%, versus HK overall at 13.4%. 2Q18 Number shares on issue m 1,046 growth was surprisingly strong and similar to the momentum carried from Investment fundamentals 1Q18. This trend applies to all three assets: Hysan Place at 36%/38% in Year end 31 Dec 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 1Q/1H; Lee Gardens at 30%/28% and Lee Theatre at 8%/6%. The sacrifice of Revenue m 3,548.0 3,716.4 3,870.3 3,952.9 positive retail reversion during down market in exchange for curating a vibrant, EBIT m 2,852.0 2,974.8 3,149.1 3,235.5 cohesive and diverse ambience bodes well for the traffic and retail sales in the EBIT growth % -1.2 4.3 5.9 2.7 medium term. Reported profit m 3,636.0 7,177.2 2,592.6 2,534.6 Adjusted profit m 2,349.0 2,425.5 2,592.6 2,534.6 Over 95% of Lee Garden Three (LG3) office are leased and 88% of retail have EPS rep HK$ 3.48 6.86 2.48 2.42 been committed, attracting some of the most reputable tenants. According to EPS rep growth % 199.6 97.4 -63.9 -2.2 EPS adj HK$ 2.25 2.32 2.48 2.42 HKET, Goldman Sachs leased up five floors at ~HK$60psf to move its back EPS adj growth % -0.5 3.2 6.9 -2.2 office from Central. We view the potential departure of KPMG vacating 80k sqf PER rep x 11.7 5.9 16.5 16.8 of Hysan Place (according to Mingtiadi) to Swire’s South Island Place a good PER adj x 18.2 17.6 16.5 16.8 chance to increase rental and attract more exciting tenants from Central. Total DPS HK$ 1.37 1.40 1.43 1.46 Total DPS growth % 1.5 2.2 2.1 2.1 Impact Total div yield % 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.6 ROA % 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 However, management issued caution for 2H as the ESPRIT store in Leighton ROE % 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.3 Centre will be closed in Q3. Vacancy (~HK$2m/mth rental, according to HKET) EV/EBITDA x 14.9 14.5 13.7 13.9 Net debt/equity % 4.8 5.7 4.0 2.5 and potential negative reversion for this 7k sqf space may be a small drag. P/BV x 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 The offsetting factor is strong turnover rent from the rest of the portfolio, which almost doubled from a year ago and may exceed HK$100m for the full year. 14 HK rel HSI performance, & rec history Leasing expenses of LG3 office and the opening costs of LG3 retail may compress margin in 2H18, which already declined from 89.5% to 88.3% and may further drop to 86% before recovering in 2019. This negative should be mitigated by higher top-line contribution from LG3. As a result, we stand by our 3.2% 2018 EPS growth forecast, despite 4.3% increase in 1H18, before reaching 6.9% growth in 2019. We project only HK$0.03/share increase in dividend for the full year, of which HK$0.01 already occurred in 1H. We are positive on the stock, but our 2018 EPS and DPS Note: Recommendation timeline - if not a continuous line, then there was no forecasts are 8% and 2% below consensus. Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period. Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, August 2018 Earnings and target price revision (all figures in HKD unless noted) No change. Price catalyst Analysts 12-month price target: HK$54.23 based on a Sum of Parts methodology. Macquarie Capital Limited David Ng, CFA +852 3922 1291 Catalyst: finding new tenant for ESPRIT space. [email protected] Action and recommendation Nicholas Ting +852 3922 1398 [email protected] Retail sales for Hysan in 2018 are likely to be all-time high and exceed the 2014 peak due to strong market recovery, yet trading at PB of 0.6x only. Please refer to page 6 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures. Macquarie Research Hysan Development Fig 1 Retail sales growth for each retail property Company Region Property 1H15 CY15 1H16 CY16 1H17 CY17 1Q18 1H18 Sw ire Properties Admiralty Pacific Place -12.7% -11.8% -17.0% -12.8% 1.5% 7.2% 25.9% Sw ire Properties Island East Cityplaza Mall 10.9% 0.7% -4.1% -4.0% -7.3% -3.0% 7.7% Sw ire Properties Tung Chung Citygate Outlets -5.3% -10.0% -13.0% -8.0% 0.9% 0.2% 11.7% MAGIC Kow loon Festival Walk 1.7% 1.5% -14.4% -11.6% -1.5% 1.7% 18.1% Wharf TST Harbour City -7.1% -12.1% -14.7% -9.9% 2.8% 9.1% 37.7% 36.1% Wharf CWB Times Square -9.6% -12.8% -15.7% -11.0% -4.3% 1.1% 23.3% 21.6% Hysan CWB Hysan Place -5.0% -7.0% -5.0% -2.0% 6.0% 12.0% 36.0% 38.0% Hysan CWB Lee Gardens Hub -8.0% -10.0% -13.0% -7.0% 2.0% 12.0% 30.0% 28.0% Hysan CWB Lee Theatre hub 10.0% 4.0% -5.0% -5.0% -2.0% 2.0% 8.0% 6.0% Champion REIT Kow loon Langham Place 2.9% 1.8% -6.4% -4.9% 1.9% 5.3% Sogo CWB CWB Sogo -1.4% -4.5% -9.5% -6.7% -1.5% 4.3% Hong Kong total retail sales -1.6% -3.7% -10.5% -8.1% -0.6% 2.2% 14.3% 13.4% Hong Kong 'Luxury' -15.9% -15.6% -21.1% -17.2% 0.8% 5.2% 21.7% 23.5% HK 'Electronic and other durable goods' 11.6% 8.5% -28.7% -25.0% -14.0% -5.9% 21.0% 16.3% Source: Company data, HKSAR, Macquarie Research, August 2018 8 August 2018 2 Macquarie Research Hysan Development Fig 2 Consensus 12mth forward PER for HYSA Latest price=41.8*; PE=16.5 (5-yr average=16.3) 35 F12M PE (LHS) 5YR-AVE F12M PE (LHS) Stock price (RHS) 50 45 30 40 25 35 30 20 25 15 20 10 15 10 5 5 - 0 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug 10 Aug 11 Aug 12 Aug 13 Aug 14 Aug 15 Aug 16 Aug 17 *priced as of 7 Aug 2018 Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, August 2018 Fig 3 P/BV for HYSA: PB=0.6 (5-yr average=0.57) 1.4 L12M PB (LHS) 5YR-AVE L12M PB (LHS) Stock price (RHS) 50 45 1.2 40 1.0 35 30 0.8 25 0.6 20 0.4 15 10 0.2 5 0.0 0 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug 10 Aug 11 Aug 12 Aug 13 Aug 14 Aug 15 Aug 16 Aug 17 Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, August 2018 Fig 4 NAV discount for HYSA: NAV discount= -47% (5-yr average= -30%) 0% 50 NAV discount (%, LHS) 5YR-AVE F12M NAV discount (LHS) Stock Price (RHS) 45 -10% 40 -20% 35 30 -30% 25 -40% 20 -50% 15 10 -60% 5 -70% 0 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug 10 Aug 11 Aug 12 Aug 13 Aug 14 Aug 15 Aug 16 Aug 17 Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, August 2018 8 August 2018 3 Macquarie Research Hysan Development Macquarie Quant View The quant model currently holds a strong positive view on Hysan Attractive Displays where the Development. The strongest style exposure is Price Momentum, indicating company’s ranked based on this stock has had strong medium to long term returns which often persist s l the fundamental consensus a into the future. The weakest style exposure is Growth, indicating this stock t n Price Target and has weak historic and/or forecast growth. Growth metrics focus on both top e Macquarie’s Quantitative and bottom line items. m a Alpha model. d n 85/1003 u Two rankings: Local market F (Hong Kong) and Global Global rank in sector (Real Estate) Quant Real Estate % of BUY recommendations 75% (9/12) Local market rank Global sector rank Number of Price Target downgrades 0 Number of Price Target upgrades 1 Macquarie Alpha Model ranking Factors driving the Alpha Model A list of comparable companies and their Macquarie Alpha model score For the comparable firms this chart shows the key underlying styles and their (higher is better).
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