HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples 8 giugno 2018 per il Turismo Spaziale Museo della Pace, Napoli

A hypersonic for fast transportation and space tourism

G. Russo (Trans-Tech/CNS) R. Savino (Univ. Federico II, Napoli) G. Pagliocca (Trans-Tech)

Dip Ingegneria Industriale HYPLANE,Università la soluzione"Federico Made II” di inNapoli Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 Conceived by:

Gennaro Russo, Trans-Tech srl Department of Industrial Engineering, Raffaele Savino, Univ. Federico II of Naples University of Naples "Federico II”

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Naples "Federico II” Other Participants/Supporters

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 Pubblicato su: Presentato ai congressi: Aeronautics & Aerospace Eng., 2013 IAC 2013, Pechino Futuri, 2013 AIDAA 2013, Napoli J British Interpl Soc, 2014 Fast Forward 2014, Miami Aviation & Space J, 2014 (in pubbl) SR-Italia 2014, Milano Acta Astronautica, 2015 IAC 2014, Toronto Enciclopedia Treccani, 2015 20th AIAA SPHS 2015, Glasgow Adv. Aerosp.Sci. & Techn., 2017 CNF 2015, Napoli CESMA 2nd Workshop Hypersonics 2016, Roma Illustrato/proposto a: AIDAA 2017, Palermo ACARE Italia NEREUS 2018, Torino ASI CSA 2018, Jiande Cina CTNA CAST 2018, Hangzhou Cina ENAC A.M. Giovani: CNR 6 dottorati Piaggio Aero Ind. 15 tesisti Alcune soc. di Business Jet 2 stagisti Possibili finanziatori italiani, europei, cinesi e arabi HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 It may seem counterintuitive that we landed robots on distant planets, constructed the ISS and even landed men on the moon, but the prospect of hypersonic commercial transportation still remains not implemented.

Main reasons: 1) technological problems; 2) lack of industry risk taking; 3) belief that private enterprise has no place in such forms of flight; 4) expectation that spaceflight in only in the hands of government; 5) programs cancelled due to impatience with rate of technology maturation; 6) resource-limited funding environment leading to program instability – frequent starts, stops and redirections

New generation hypersonic planes may offer a very important step towards the development of new systems in both future aviation and space transportation

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 ➢ Other hypersonic commercial designs tend toward large aircrafts, characterized by hundreds of tons of mass and hundreds of passengers

Length Span MTOW A380 73 m 80 m 575 t LAPCAT 140 m 39 m 400 t Skylon 83 m 25 m 345 t Space Liner 80 m 38 m 1830 t

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 Length Span MTOW Saturn V 110 m ------2970 t Space Shuttle 56 m 24 m 2030 t Space Liner 80 m 38 m 1830 t

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 Time is money! High Speed Transportation

Aerion SBJ MEGA SBJ-4 SAI SBJ

Business jet Market Point to point ▪ Company owners ▪ Use the very large number of airfields ▪ Private owners ▪ No major hub ▪ Charter ▪ Fewer security issues ▪ Very fast

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 ➢ A small passenger hypersonic plane (< 10 seats), designed by integrating state-of-the-art aeronautic and space technologies, offers access to suborbital space and stratospheric flights as safe, convenient and commonplace as today's commercial air transporta- tion, and represents a first step towards the development of larger and more complex systems. At the same time, it opens new markets and applications

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 Fundamental Requirements

All in a days work! Other attributes • Return trip with a minimum of 2 hours • Field length < 1800m – opens up at destination to the world’s major cities large number of airports • Current two day business trip reduced • MTOW < 40 t (pavement loading to 12 hours constraint) • Mach > 2 and range > 5000 km • Number of Passengers 6-10 (comfort) • Number of crew 2

What altitude? Subject to supersonic flight over land, there is a Cruise altitude depends on: business case. • Speed (faster=higher) • Weight (heavier = lower) Supersonic commercial jets flight maybe • Size (bigger = higher) overtaken by hypersonic one ➔ Mach > 4-5 • High L/D on cruise

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 Intensive use of lift force

HYPLANE

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 Regime Transonic Supersonic Hypersonic High-hypersonic Mach 0.8–1.2 1.0–4.0/4.5 4.5/5.0–10.0 >10.0 25.5 Speed (km/h) 900 - 1000 1.200 – 5.300 5.300 – 11.000 > 11000 25.500 Altitude 10km 15km - 100 km - LEO Vehicles Air liners - SpaceShipTwo, X15 - Space Shuttle

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 Potential Market Size The second one refers mainly to The correct potential marketplace for HyPlane is the combination of two markets:

➢ Supersonic/Hypersonic transportation ➢ Suborbital space flight

The first one addresses mainly the segment of urgent business travel for passengers as well as fast cargo transportation for special goods/products such as mail and express, pharms, valuables live, perishable, transcontinental organ transport space tourism, research, training & services.

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 Business Plan Summary ➢ Reference time frame: 20 years ➢ Number of units: ❖ 10 units from suborbital space tourism, research, training & services ❖ 102 units from SBJ/HBJ ➢ Development cost (NRC) = 2 B€ ➢ Production cost of one vehicle (RC) = 40 M€ ➢ HYPLANE selling price: 80 M€ ➢ Operating cost: ❖ ST = 155 k€/flight ❖ P2P = 28 k€/flight ➢ Ticket price = 50 k€ (ST) and 10 k€ (P2P) (➔ 50-250 k€/day, 6-32 k€/hr)

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 11 years

2 B€ development investment 10 B€ total life cyle cost 13.7 B€ total life cycle revenue 3.7 B€ total life cycle First Operating Margin (EBITDA)

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 A business-class HYpersonic spacePLANE

❖ can fly above the Karman line and can run a series of Space Tourism parabolas at altitude above 70 km ➔ Space Tourism 2.0 ❖ ~7000 km distances in less than 2 hours with cruise altitude at about 30 km ❑ integrates state-of-art aeronautic ➢ 6-seats, Mach 4.5 spaceplane and space technologies ➢ HTHL from 80% of available airports (L<1000 m) within the present set of governing rules ❖ Suborbital flight (Microgravity Research, Space Tourism, Training) ➢ Urgent Travel market segment HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 Space Tourism Altitude 100-110 km

Space LAPCAT A2 HyPlane Liner ZEHST

SoniStar Hyp. Commercial 25-30 km XCOR SpaceShipTwo Lynx EADS Spaceplane BSP Ascender

Spike S-512HiSAC QSST Sup. Business Aerion SSBJ 15-20 km Gulfstream X-54

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 System configuration

• Variable-delta wing + fuselage shape to provide aerodynamic stability and manoeuvrability over a broad speed range • Powered by either (i) Supercharged Ejector RamJet (SERJ) engines or (ii) turbo-ramjet engines plus a liquid rocket • GTOW = ~26 t • Sub-orbital “jumps” up to 100 km (Karman Line) • 30 km altitude flight, due to the low wing loading, offers also a better Earth view and may open to new applications

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 System configuration

The «Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hide» passenger cabin

Advanced, simplified cockpit with holographic HAD

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 Comparison with Cabin Max Down- Max Passengers other space Volume Altitude range Accelera- 3 [#] tourism vehicles [m ] [km] [km] tion [g] 300 >100, 1 jump HyPlane 25 each 4.5 6 (+2) ~70, 3 jumps jump

Space Ship 2 15 110 56 6 6 (+2)

Lynx ~6 100 - 4.5 1 (+1)

EADS 12 100 - 4.5 4 (+1) Spaceplane

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 HYPLANE Mission Profile

❖ Horizontal take off at 60 m/s speed in <1000 m ❖ Subsonic climb from 0 to 10 km altitude, speed up to about 240 m/s or Mach 0.8 ❖ Aero-assisted climb from 10 to 30 km altitude, speed from 240 to 1350 m/s or Mach from 0.8 to 4.5 ❖ Sub-orbital maneuver/s up to the Karman line, or ❖ Cruise at 30 Km altitude @ Mach 4.5 ❖ Gliding descent from 30 to 5 km altitude, speed from 1350 to 200 m/s or Mach from 4.5 to 0.6 ❖ Final approach from 5 to 0 km altitude, speed down to 100 m/s ❖ Horizontal landing at 60 m/s speed in <1000 m

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 Suborbital Flight Scenario

Either 1 parabola at >100 km or up to 3 parabolas at ~70 km

30 km, Mach=4.5 20 km, Mach=2.5 Descent and approach Switch to Ramjet to terminal area mode

>2.5 min Weightlessness per jump 10 km, Mach=0.8 Horizontal landing Horizontal take off

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 Suborbital Flight Performances

• HyPlane is able to execute up to three parabolas during one single flight. Max downrange for each sub-orbital jump is 300 km • Relatively low max acceleration ~4.5g immediately prior to 2.5 min of weightlessness • Opportunity to execute micro- gravity research and training under repeated, relatively long duration weightlessness • Unique possibility to follow a more flexible research approach (using typical laboratory-type instrumentation, participation of the research team on their experiments during flight, reusability)

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 Suborbital Flight Performances

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 Suborbital Flight Performances

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 Earth view from stratosphere

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 Hypersonic Cruise Scenario

20 km, Mach=2.5 Switch to Ramjet mode Cruise phase, Acceleration along a constant 30 km, Mach=4.5 Descent and dynamic pressure trajectory (Range >7000 km) approach to terminal area 10 km, Mach=0.8 Horizontal Horizontal take off landing

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 Skip trajectory

Points of weightlesness, 60Km

Mach=2.5 Mach=4.5 Ramjet burns, 30 Km Gliding trajectory Ejector-Rocket mode Mach=0.8 Horizontal landing

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 Hypersonic Cruise Range Map

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 Hypersonic Cruise Range Map

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 Hypersonic Cruise Range Map

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018

130 dB

]

-

[ [km] K from Concorde and

number Space Shuttle data W instantaneous weight

Altitude Mo instantaneous Mach

Mach Mach H instantaneous altitude

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 Aerodynamics

0,6

0,5

High L/D in all flow regimes 0,4 M=.3 - H=0 km to improve vehicle 0,3 M=.8 - H=10 km performances CL 0,2 M=1 - H=15 km 0,1 M=2 - H=20 km

0 M=4 - H=35 km -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 M=6 - H=50 km 6 -0,1 5 -0,2 4 -0,3 3 M=.3 - H=0 km 2 M=.8 - H=10 km AoA (deg) L/D1 0,18 M=1 - H=15 km 0 0,16 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 M=2 - H=20 km -1 0,14 M=4 - H=35 km -2 M=.3 - H=0 km 0,12 -3 M=6 - H=50 km M=.8 - H=10 km 0,1 -4 CD M=1 - H=15 km 0,08 -5 M=2 - H=20 km -6 0,06 M=4 - H=35 km AoA (deg) 0,04 M=6 - H=50 km 0,02 0 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 Aerodynamic Heating Materials identification

M∞ H [km] α [°] 4.0 30 0

B4C or SiC Titanium Alloys Titanium Alloys or BMI

• Nose, wing and vertical tail leading edges, control surfaces (T>400°C) → Carbon fiber

reinforced ceramics composite materials (e.g Boron Carbide B4C or Silicon Carbide SiC)

• Fuselage, wing, vertical tail (300°

• Aft fuselage (T<300°C) → Light temperature carbon fiber composite materials (e.g. HYPLANE,Bismaleimides la soluzione MadeBMI) in Naplescould per il Turismobe selected Spaziale, to gain weight with respect to titanium Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 Mass budget

STRUCTURE : 4,8 t

3,5% Fuselage 18,3% 30,0% Wings 3,4% Empennage 4,4% Nacelle & Pylon Landing Gear TPS 40,4%

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 Advanced Propulsion

Supercharged Ejector Ramjet (SERJ)

PHASES CONFIGURATIONS Takeoff and subsonic climb Fan + Afterburner Transonic climb Fan + Afterburner Supersonic climb 1 Fan + Afterburner Supersonic climb 2 Ramjet Parabolic flight Ejector Supersonic cruise Ramjet Gliding descent Fan + Afterburner Subsonic loiter Fan

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 Turbine-Based Combined Cycle (TBCC) Model

700 Altitude = 0 km 600 Altitude = 5 km

] 500 kN

Thrust Altitude = 10 km 400 Altitude = 15 km

Maximum Available 300 Altitude = 20 km Engine [ Engine

Available 200 Altitude = 25 km

Thrust (per Engine) per Altitude = 30 km Max 100

0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Mach Number 2300

Altitude = 0 km 2100 Altitude = 5 km

1900 Altitude = 10 km Altitude = 15 km 1700 Altitude = 20 km Specific Impulse Altitude = 25 km

Specific Impulse [s] Impulse Specific 1500 Altitude = 30 km

1300 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Mach Number HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 Main Enabling Technologies 1. Low wing loading aerodynamics

2. Combined cycles hypersonic propulsion (ramjet based)

1000

500 …

Available Engine

0Thrust per

Max 0 1 2 3 4 5 Mach6 3. Integrated hot structures and thermal control

4. Reduced environmental impact due to HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 Prospective

Markets

Space services

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 Prototype Demonstrator ➢ Aerostructure: almost the same ➢ Propulsion system: twin EJ200 turbofan (from Eurofighter) + rocket booster ➢ People on board: one experimental pilot ➢ Target missions: - 1 suborbital jump up to 100 km with 300 km downrange - <1000 km stratospheric flight ➢ Development cost: ~1/10 of full development costs, i.e. ~200 M€ ➢ Development time: ~4 years

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 The advantage of the coastal line

• Segregated areas for operations • Geographical location, climate, population density • Security procedures of the site and the area

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 IntroductionHSWTT, Hyplane Subsonic Wind Tunnel Test The HSWTT Team is formed by Federico II University engineering students who have conceived, realized and tested in a wind tunnel a 3D scale model of the Hyplane spacecraft

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, 44 Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 Working group members: ➢ Dario Pisanti Working group supervisors: ➢ Marco Saviano ➢ Dr. Gennaro Russo, Center for Near ➢ Francesco Perrelli Space ➢ Armando Mocerino ➢ Prof. Raffaele Savino, Federico II University ➢ Andrea Raia ➢ Andrew Green Working group partners: ➢ Daniele Del Guercio ➢ Santolo Manzone, 3DnA Srl ➢ Michele Pernetti ➢ Ing. Giancarlo Pagliocca, Trans-Tech ➢ Lorenzo Pavone Srl ➢ Maresciallo Napolitano, Air Force Academy all Federico II University engineering students and CNS members

HYPLANE,01/07/2018 la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, 4545 Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 ❖ In December 2016 the 3DnA printed the model elements: ➢ 2 elements for the fuselage ➢ 2 wings and a vertical stabilizer ➢ 4 elements for the nascelles ❖ The 14th of December 2016 a group delegation went to the 3DnA factory in Pomigliano to check, refined and integrated the printed components ❖ The small-scale spacecraft was exposed at the SMAU 2016

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, 46 Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 ❖TestIn 2017Campaign 29 tests were executed at different speeds and configurations ➢ Speeds [m/s]: 25 34 40 45 ➢ Angle of attack [deg]: 0 +10 +12 +20 -10 ➢ “flap” deflection [deg]: 0 +10 -10 +20 -20

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 HSFT, Hyplane Subsonic Flight Test Working group members: ➢ Salvatore Buonpane (leader) ➢ Matilde Italiano (doc manager) Working group supervisors: ➢ Gianmarco Valletta ➢ Dr. Gennaro Russo, Center for Near ➢ Davide Mango Space ➢ Marco Saviano ➢ Prof. Raffaele Savino, Federico II ➢ Michele Capasso University ➢ Armando Mocerino ➢ Dario Pisanti ➢ Francesco Perrelli ➢ Luigi Avallone ➢ Claudio Vela ➢ Andrea Raia

HYPLANE,01/07/2018 la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, 4848 Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 THANK YOU !

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 ➢ Settore di grande interesse strategico per l’Italia ➢ Occorre essere preparati alla competizione mondiale che si svilupperà nei prossimi anni ➢ Questo mercato può offrire nuove opportunità da Tier 1 e 2 alle grandi aziende del settore dell’Aeronautica e Trasporto Aereo ➢ Questo mercato può anche offrire leadership alle aziende dell’aviazione generale/ executive per nuovi velivoli ipersonici di piccole dimensioni ➢ L’Italia può inoltre sviluppare il suo «piccolo» comparto di servizi business jet puntando ad un ruolo rilevante sullo scenario internazionale

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 Analysis approach An inductive approach is used, on the basis of available analyses.

reservations Space share Estimated

Market Torusim (highly variable) Leverage on low cost Overall passenger traffic ➔ aircraft deliveries Business jet Business Business jet high-end segment with deliveries 40 M$ unit costs

Hyplane business jets high- end segment HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 Vanno completamente distinti i due casi di:

➢ Velivolo ipersonico di grandi dimensioni tipo aviazione commerciale (HCA)

➢ Velivolo ipersonico di piccole dimensioni tipo business jet (HBJ)

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 HCA AVIATION GROWTH

2016-2036 (Passenger)

Passenger demand will about double in next 20 years (from present 4 billion) with an average annual rate of 3.6% globally. By 2036, commercial air carriers are projected to transport 7.8 billion passengers. IATA, 20-Year Air Passenger Forecast, Oct 2017

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 HCA

There are two categories of commercial human passengers of point-to-point hypersonic transportation who will be traveling with purpose:

• the business traveler, whose fare is paid by his/her organization, and business at the destination is assumed to be the motive for the travel

• the wealthy individual, who pay his/her own fare, whatever is the reason for reaching the destination

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 HCA

a. Business travelers 2017: 5.3% erano premium-class International First class air travel declines: seats (business + 1980 5.0% first class). 2001 2.3% 2012 1.5% 2017 0.075% ➔ 3 million passenger/yr Premium class (first + business) air travel: 2001 7.0% 2012 5.5% 2017 5.3% ➔ 213 million passenger/yr Concorde air travel (up to 2003). 0.01% ➔ 150000 passenger/yr 80% business + 20% wealthy passengers

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 HCA

Business class price premium is 15-45% higher than coach class airfare ➔ 1750-2050€ (round trip) First class price premium is  6X the coach class airfare ➔ 10000€ (round trip) Concorde price premium was  2X the first class ➔ 12X coach class airfare ➔ 20000€ (round trip) Assuming the HCA will be chosen by 10% of first class travellers + all Concorde wealthy passengers + 10% Concorde business passengers ➔ 342000 passenger/yr (i.e. 0,16% of Premium class) ➔ about 950 passenger/day

The HCA market is too low for an aircraft of the class of hundreds tons MTOW and/or hundred passengers! Ticket price would have to rise by at least 5X Concorde ➔ >100000€!

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 HBJ

A) Business Jet Market: Overview and Projections Passenger air traffic demand increased continuously since 1950 and is still expanding, even if this market is very sensitive to the economic downturns: Twin Towers attack (2001) and the financial crisis (2008)

The business jet market represents today the aviation industry segment with the largest growing potential. The highest peak was recorded in 2008, with 1313 business jets delivered. In 2014, the deliveries per year were close to 700 ➔ expected annual growth rate over the next 20 years = 3,5%

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 HBJ

By the end of 2034, the active business jet fleet will be about 24000 units (FAA) with about 10000 new vehicles plus 4500 replacing units, for a total jet deliveries over the next 20 years estimated 14500 vehicles, with an average of 725 jets delivered per year

Fig. 3: Business jet fleet forecast over the next 20 years. Source: FAA Survey and Forecast Fig. 4: Business jet deliveries forecast; source: FAA Survey and Forecast

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 HBJ

B) Supersonic Business Jet Demand The business jets high-end segment is constantly increasing its market share and has passed from the 10% in 2006 of the total business jet market to around 35% in 2013. It means that approximately one third of the business jet deliveries are in the high-end segment.

Fig. 6: High-end business jet deliveries; Source: “General Aviation Statistical Databook & 2014 Industry Outlook”

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 HBJ

Let us now consider jets within the high-end segment characterized by a unit costs higher than US$ 40 millions.

The segment has constantly increased its market share with respect to other business jet segments, mainly because it is less sensitive to the economic fluctuation: • people willing to buy such a jet do not consider the price as the first purchase parameter; • first they look at the comfort, max range, max velocity and design. Therefore the elasticity of that market is extremely low. Assuming an average market share along the years of 25%, in the next 20 years we expect a demand of high-end segment jets of 3625.

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 HBJ

The market for supersonic/hypersonic jets is strictly related to the one of subsonic high-end segment jets ➔ several studies exist.

Main parameter is the vehicle costs. According to M.H. Reichel (2011): • with a reference price of US$80M, 43% of the high-end business jet demand will be switched to the supersonic jet one • with a price of US$90M, the switched demand will be 29% • with a price of US$100M, the switched demand will be 14%, • with a price of US$110M or more, no one will be willing to buy a supersonic airplane

HBJ market price is estimated about 80 M€/unit (US$95M)

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 HBJ

Thus, the projected demand could be 507 new supersonic jets in a period of 20 years, or 25 per year in average.

It is also clear that the high-end subsonic jets market will probably lose a significant share.

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 HBJ

C) Suborbital Space Tourism Market A market demand for suborbital tourism exists and it is demonstrated by the reservations made to Virgin Galactic, XCOR and Armadillo:

2012 mid-2013 Virgin Galactic 550 640 XCOR 175 300 Armadillo 200 200 TOTAL 925 1140

Source for 2012 data: The Tauri Group

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 HBJ

The Tauri Group study in 2012 selected a pool of wealthy individuals with a minimum net worth of $5 million.

Baseline: stable political situation today. 3600 seats over 10 years with $600 M revenues Constrained: persistence of the economic crisis. 2000 seats over 10 years with $300 M revenues Growth: improved technology, high private investment, successful marketing. >11000 seats over 10 years with $1600 M revenues

Fig. 7: Suborbital Space Tourism demand projection; source: "Suborbital Reusable Vehicles: A 10-Year Forecast of Market Demand”, Tauri Group ➔ something like 200-1100 seat/yr

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 HBJ

Another assessment was conducted by IPSOS

The study took into account six different pricing scenarios.

1st scenario: during the first year after the market start, estimated 606 potential passengers, becoming 43.148 during the 16th year. 6th scenario: the most optimistic one, projected 756 potential passengers in the first year and more than 80.000 16 years after.

Given the number of expected players, it is estimated that one single HBJ will capture 20 % of the market.

➔ something like 540-1000 seat/yr

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 HBJ

Potential Customers and Buyers Analysis According to D. Webber (2012) “Exploring the possibility of a commercial traveler market for point-to-point suborbital space transportation”, the Concorde market experience supports an estimation of some 37500 passenger/year, including business as well as leisure purposes travelers. some 100-150 passengers daily This data suggests that small supersonic/hypersonic aircrafts (with less than 10 seats) will be a good investment

Potential buyers could be: Fractional owner companies Governments Private individuals International/multinational companies

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 POSSIBILI IMPIEGHI

Gli utilizzi di tipo scientifico che si prospettano in un futuro di medio periodo, e relativi livelli di interesse, sono: • Test in volo e sviluppo di sistemi e tecnologie aerospaziali • Sperimentazione in volo in ambito aerodinamica ipersonica • Sperimentazione in volo in ambito propulsion (razzi, ram/scramjet, …) • Sperimentazione in volo in ambito aerostrutture (hot structures, materiali, aspetti affidabilistici, health monitoring & management) • Caratterizzazione sistematica dell’atmosfera nella fascia tra 70 e 100 km di quota • Sperimentazione in micro e bassa gravità suborbitale • Test in volo e sviluppo di sistemi e tecnologie in astronomia • Ricerca in ambito Osservazione della Terra • Addestramento di piloti e astronauti in condizioni di gravità ridotta • Education, media and public relations

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018

anno 1 anno 2 anno 3 anno 4 anno 5 anno 6 anno 7 anno 8 anno 9 anno 10 anno 11 anno 12 anno 13 anno 14 anno 15 anno 16 anno 17 anno 18 anno 19 anno 20 anno

Trasporto stratosferico persone e merci 480 1208 3020 7620 12080 16610 21140 27180 33220 40770 48320 57380 66440 77010 87580 99660 111740 125330 138920 154020

Trasporto suborbitale persone e merci 80 265 600 1540 2600 4530 4530 6040 6040 7550 7550 9060 9060 10570 10570 12080 12080 13590 13590 15100

Servizi spaziali (lancio satelliti) 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

Media & PR 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 5 7 8 10 12 14 15 17 18 19 20 20 Impieghi Commerciali Addestramento piloti e astronauti 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 Speriment. in volo - aerodinamica Speriment. in volo - propulsione Speriment. in volo - aerostrutture Ricerca di Base e Caratterizzazione atmosfera 19 21 25 32 40 44 71 73 75 78 80 82 85 87 89 92 94 96 98 101 Applicata Sperimentazione in microg

Impieghi Ricerca sull'Uomo Scientifici

Osservazione della terra Test in volo sistemi e tecn Prove e aerospaziali Dimostrazioni 2 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 14 14 15 Test in volo sistemi e tecn Aerospaziali astronomia Formazione 1 4 5 6 8 10 12 16 20 26 32 39 46 53 61 69 77 86 95 104

TOTALE (seat/cargo equivalent) 597 1500 3680 9231 14764 21233 25796 33354 39405 48479 56041 66625 75701 87795 98380 111986 124081 139197 152802 169428

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 the lessor (manufacturer) provides aircraft, crew, maintenance and insurance (ACMI), while the leesee (operator) covers expenses for fuel, airport fees and Assumptions: any other taxes or duties • HYPLANE will capture 20% of the supersonic/hypersonic business jet market ➔ conservatively 102 units over 20 years (3 delivery at start, rising up to 10) • HYPLANE will be requested of 10 units for space tourism market (wet lease). An extra aircraft per year. • Production cost = 40 M€ Selling Price = 80 M€ • Each spaceplane will be used as a mean for 1 fight/day for 300 days/yr Development Revenues from vehicles sold 2,00 B€ 8,16 B€ costs (business jet) Revenues from vehicles in Financing costs 0,84 B€ 3,36 B€ wet leasing (space tourism) Production costs 4,48 B€ Wet lease cost 0,47 B€ TOTAL COSTS 7,79 B€ TOTAL REVENUE 11,52 B€ First Operating Margin = EBITDA = 3.73 B€ over 20 years HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 11 years

2 B€ development investment 10 B€ total life cyle cost 13.7 B€ total life cycle revenue 3.7 B€ total life cycle First Operating Margin (EBITDA)

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 B) Operator Perspective for Business Transportation • Vehicle operating life: 20 years • Average flight frequency: 2 per day • Average occupancy rate: 5 seats over 6 • Average operating days per year: 302 (increasing over the years) Variable operating costs per flight Fixed operating costs Fuel and oil €16000 Annual insurance costs: hull + €200000 liability insurance Flight crew €2500 Annual Hangar expenses €77000 Labor and part expenses €2000 Annual Office expenses €10000 Passenger services €1000 Annual maintenance €300000 Other consumables (10% of fuel) €1600 Marketing and commercial costs €600000 Others: €2600 Total per year €1,187 - fees for air navigation, landing, parking, million handling, airport Total per flight €25700 Total per flight €1978 Cost per flight = 27678 € ; Cost per passenger = ~5500 €

HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 • Ticket price = 10000 € (with profit of 45%) • Break even point at 8 years Aggregate Profit • Aggregate profit = 150 M€ YEARS 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 200 150

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HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 HBJ ECONOMICS

C) Operator Perspective for Space Tourism Missions • Vehicle operating life: 20 years • Average flight frequency: 1 per day • Average occupancy rate: 5 seats over 6 • Average operating days per year: 300 (increasing over the years)

COSTS AND REVENUES FOR 1 VEHICLE OPERATED Wet lease contract per year €30M Operating costs per flight: fuel, airport fees €22856 (fuel cost) + €5000(fees and taxes) = and taxes €27856 Yearly marketing and commercial costs €600000 per year Yearly office expenses €10000 per year Cost for participants training program (per €25000 (€5000 per participant) flight) Total cost per flight €155000 Cost per flight = 155000 € ; Cost per passenger = 31500 € Source: Trans-Tech HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018 • Wet leasing contract = 30 M€/yr • Ticket price = 50000 € (with profit of 38%) • Break even point: not applicable Aggregate profit • Aggregate profit = 270 M€ 300

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HYPLANE, la soluzione Made in Naples per il Turismo Spaziale, Museo della Pace, Napoli, 8 giugno 2018