Mudar Zahran Yoaz Hendel Efraim Inbar David P. Goldman Svante
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$12 WINTER 2012 VOLUME 19, NUMBER 1 Mudar Zahran Jordan Is Palestinian Oren Kessler The Two Faces of Al Jazeera Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi Israeli Security U.S. Strategy in Afghanistan Yoaz Hendel Lucas Winter Nuclear Iran and Israel Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Huthis Efraim Inbar Ali Alfoneh The Arab Uprisings and Israel Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Strike Oil Hilal Khashan The Pragmatics Changes in Turkey of Lebanon’s Politics David P. Goldman Bruce Maddy-Weitzman The “Economic Miracle” Morocco’s New Constitution Collapses Plus . 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Richard Greenfield Lawrence K. Grodman Jeremy T. Rosenblum Martin Gross Irene Pipes Amy Shargel Milton S. Schneider Leon Korngold Mark H. Rubin Managing Director William Seltzer David J. Kudish George A. Violin Murray H. Shusterman Joshua Landes Harry C. Wechsler Edward M. Snider Donald M. Landis David Wolf Ronni Gordon Stillman Robert J. Levine Maxine Wolf WINTER 2012 VOLUME 19, NUMBER 1 03 Mudar Zahran, Jordan Is Palestinian A state of Palestine in the kingdom could offer the way to peace CHANGES IN TURKEY 13 Svante E. Cornell, What Drives Turkish Foreign Policy? Ankara moves toward a rupture with the West 25 David P. Goldman, Ankara’s “Economic Miracle” Collapses Deficiencies in the Turkish economy could lead to a disastrous decline ISRAELI DEFENSE 31 Yoaz Hendel, Iran’s Nukes and Israel’s Dilemma Should Jerusalem launch a preemptive strike? 39 Efraim Inbar, The Arab Uprisings’ Impact The new Middle East may prove more hazardous for Israeli security 47 Oren Kessler, The Two Faces of Al Jazeera Inflammatory in Arabic, subdued in English 57 POLICY BRIEF: Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi, Rethinking U.S. Strategy in Afghanistan Obama’s plan has no chance of success 67 Lucas Winter, Riyadh Enters the Yemen-Huthi Fray Fears of Iranian influence prompted the Saudis to act 75 DATELINE: Ali Alfoneh, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Strike Oil The IRGC is handed another key ministry post 79 DATELINE: Hilal Khashan, The Pragmatics of Lebanon’s Politics The Lebanese handle deep-rooted sectarian and religious divides 87 DATELINE: Bruce Maddy-Weitzman, Is Morocco Immune to Upheaval? Moroccan authorities forestall unrest with a new constitution REVIEWS 94 Brief Reviews Palestinian terrorism ... Turkish Islamism ... Israel’s prime ministers / 1 Editor Publisher and Review Editor Efraim Karsh Daniel Pipes Senior Editors Assistant Editor Patrick Clawson Hillel Zaremba Denis MacEoin Michael Rubin Editorial Assistant William Aquilino Managing Editor Judy Goodrobb Board of Editors Fouad Ajami Franck Salameh Johns Hopkins University Boston College David Cook Philip Carl Salzman Rice University McGill University Martin Kramer Saliba Sarsar The Shalem Center Monmouth University Timur Kuran Robert B. Satloff Duke University The Washington Institute for Near East Policy Habib C. Malik Sabri Sayarø Foundation for Human and Humanitarian Rights Sabancø University in Lebanon Kemal Silay James Phillips Indiana University The Heritage Foundation Lee Smith Steven Plaut Washington, D.C. University of Haifa Steven L. Spiegel Dennis Ross University of California, Los Angeles Washington, D.C. Kenneth W. Stein Barry Rubin Emory University Global Research in International Affairs Center James R. Russell Harvard University 2 / MIDDLE EAST QUARTERLY WINTER 2012 Jordan Is Palestinian by Mudar Zahran hus far the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan has weathered the storm that has swept across the Middle East since the beginning of the year. But the relative Tcalm in Amman is an illusion. The unspoken truth is that the Palestinians, the country’s largest ethnic group, have developed a profound hatred of the regime and view the Hashemites as occupiers of eastern Palestine—intruders rather than legitimate rulers. This, in turn, makes a regime change in Jordan more likely than ever. Such a change, however, would not only be confined to the toppling of yet another Arab despot but would also open the door to the only viable peace solution—and one that has effec- tively existed for quite some time: a Palestinian state in Jordan. Zarqa, which were small, rural towns before the ABDULLAH’S influx of Palestinians arrived in 1967 after Jordan’s APARTHEID POLICIES defeat in the Six-Day War. In most countries with a record of human Despite having held a comprehensive na- rights violations, vulnerable minorities are the tional census in 2004, the Jordanian government typical victims. This has not been the case in would not divulge the exact percentage of Pal- Jordan where a Palestinian majority has been estinians in the kingdom. Nonetheless, the se- discriminated against by the ruling Hashemite cret that everyone seems to know but which is dynasty, propped up by a minority Bedouin never openly admitted is that Palestinians make population, from the moment it occupied Judea up the vast majority of the population. and Samaria during the 1948 war (these territo- In his 2011 book, Our Last Best Chance, ries were annexed to Jordan in April 1950 to be- King Abdullah claimed that the Palestinians make come the kingdom’s West Bank). up a mere 43 percent. The U.S. State Department As a result, the Palestinians of Jordan find estimates that Palestinians make up “more than themselves discriminated against in government half” of Jordanians1 while in a 2007 report, writ- and legislative positions as the number of Pal- ten in cooperation with several Jordanian gov- estinian government ministers and parliamentar- ernment bodies, the London-based Oxford Busi- ians decreases; there is not a single Palestinian ness Group stated that at least two thirds of serving as governor of any of Jordan’s twelve Jordan’s population were of Palestinian origin.2 governorships.3 Palestinians make up the majority of the popula- Jordanian Palestinians are encumbered with tion of Jordan’s two largest cities, Amman and tariffs of up to 200 percent for an average family Mudar Zahran is a Jordanian-Palestinian writer who resides in the United Kingdom as a political 1 “Jordan: Country Reports on Human Rights Practices, 2001,” Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor, U.S. Depart- refugee. He served as an economic specialist ment of State, Mar. 4, 2002. and assistant to the policy coordinator at the 2 “The Report: Emerging Jordan 2007,” Oxford Business U.S. Embassy in Amman before moving to the Group, London, Apr. 2007. 3 “Jordan: Country Reports on Human Rights Practices, 2001,” U.K. in 2010. Mar. 4, 2002. Zahran: A Palestinian Jordan / 3 sedan, a fixed 16-percent sales tax, a high corpo- be thanked for standing up against Israeli am- rate tax, and an inescapable income tax. Most of bitions of unloading the Palestinian land of its their Bedouin fellow citizens, meanwhile, do not people,” which he described as “the secret Is- have to worry about most of these duties as they raeli aim to impose a solution of Palestinian refu- are servicemen or public servants who get a free gees at the expense of Jordan.”8