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Daily Grain / Hogs Marketing Outlook Written By Daily Grain / Hogs Marketing Outlook Written by: Jim Gerlach 9/16/2020 Early Call 8:45am EDT: Corn down 1, beans up 6, wheat down 3. Early Wednesday, Dow Jones futures are trading higher and the December U.S. Dollar Index is lower with Europe's stock markets mostly higher. According to CNBC.com, the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development increased its estimate of world GDP growth in 2020 from -6.0% to -4.5%. Later Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will give its assessment of the economy and is expected to keep interest rates near zero for the foreseeable future. December gold and October crude oil are both higher to start the day. Grain prices are mixed, with soybeans again leading the way higher while corn/wheat are modestly weaker. Grains: Wheat for December delivery fell 1.4% to $5.38 ¼ on the Chicago Board of Trade Tuesday amid indications of higher Black Sea wheat supply. Corn for December delivery fell 1% to $3.66, while soybeans for November delivery fell 0.8% to $9.91 ½. Farmers in Kazakhstan are bringing in their wheat crop quickly this year, which applied pressure to wheat futures Tuesday. Australian and Canadian wheat crops also higher than they were last year. The unrelenting upward momentum for U.S. grain futures, which pushed U.S. soybean prices above $10 per bushel for the first time since early 2019, is finally taking a breather. Nothing has fundamentally changed, with crop ratings continuing to slide since early August, and China still in the market for U.S. supplies with yet another daily sales announcement from the USDA yesterday morning. However, it's a much-needed break for futures that have mostly traded higher for weeks. Crops in the U.S. are maturing faster than they were at this point last year, the USDA said late Monday. In its weekly crop progress report U.S. corn was 41% mature, while 37% of U.S. soybeans have dropped their leaves, both exceeding last year's figures. Harvesting has only begun for U.S. corn, with 5% of it being harvested. The progress of the harvest is expected to be a growing focus going forward. We will start to see more attention on actual field collected data as harvest will gain momentum over the next few weeks. When it comes to harvest the most interest will likely fall on Iowa to see if crops are as bad as indicated. China has been active buying U.S. exports, a trend that 1 continued yesterday with 132,000mt of soybeans being sold there for delivery in 2020/21 marketing year. Rain yesterday was confined to hurricane impacted areas in the south yesterday (see left map). Heavy rains from the remnants of Hurricane Sally will lower quality of open boll cotton in the South. Brief, light showers are slated for the Midwest in the 6-15 day period (see 7-day NOAA forecast map right) and in the Delta in the 11-15 day period, but are not expected to impact harvest. NE had the driest August on record. Plains showers have been reduced next week, but moisture is mainly adequate for wheat germination except in the TX Panhandle. Globally, rains will be limited to northeast Argentina next Thu-Fri and 30% dryness in the wheat crop likely expands to 50% by then. A possible frost for southern Argentina wheat areas occurs Sunday and next weekend, hindered by slipping moisture as well. In Brazil, corn planting in Parana has been slowed by dry weather but 6-10 day rains and into the 11-15 day period should help. Rains aid the northern 1/3rd of Russia this weekend and the western 1/3rd of Ukraine late next week, with the rest of the Black Sea region still unfavorably dry. Dryness for western Australian, Black Sea and Argentine wheat crops offers support to world wheat. Black Sea wheat values reached new rally highs yesterday. Fears that heavy rains in India in the second half of Sep could cause damage to ripening oilseed crops supported palm oil prices yesterday and is keeping already nervous shorts in the oilseed markets worried. France lowered their wheat crop to 29.5mmt vs. 29.7mmt previously and is down more than 25% from last year’s 39.6mmt crop. The corn crop was unchanged at 14.4mmt vs. 13.0mmt last year. The strong, contra-seasonal rally in beans vs. corn is being fueled by a dry finish to the growing season, an early Sept upper Midwest frost and an exceptional gain in new crop soy export sales vs. last year relative to corn (soy up 20.4mmt vs. 11.6mmt gain in corn). North Dakota’s soybean rating dropped 11% last week, suggesting frost/freeze damage may have been greater than feared. The soy rally is being fueled in part by firming soy processor basis for quick shipment beans ahead of harvest. After taking out 2 the contract high yesterday, the next tech objective is $10.82 high posted on 3/2/18, which is possible but unlikely without disappointing 2020 U.S. soy yields along with the ongoing brisk pace of Chinese buying. Meanwhile, managed funds have extended their soy long to an estimated 200,000 contracts, the largest since 3/20/18 which corresponds to the March 2018 chart high referenced above. The last time managed funds accumulated a 200,000 or larger managed fund soy long was the 2012 drought year (long 200,000-253,000 long from 3/20/12 to 9/18/12, a 7 month run when 2012/13 U.S. soy stocks shrunk to 141mb (4.5% stocks/use) vs. my estimated 340mb 2020/21 ending stocks estimated (8% stocks/use). There is certainly room for funds to continue extending soybean longs and the current fund soy long has exceeded 100,000 contracts for only 1 month, which is a relatively short duration vs. the last time funds accumulated a large soybean long. I suspect managed funds will continue to extend their soy long as long as Chinese soy buying continues, uncertainty over 2020 U.S. soy yields persist and until spring rains across west/central and northeast Brazil to relieve the prevailing dry pattern. The U.S. now has at least 1.18 billion bushels of soybean sales on the books, over half of which are attributed to China. With USDA now estimating 460mb of soybean stocks at the end of 2020-21 in the U.S., there is not a lot of room for any more bullish surprises and that adds some excitement to watching South America's next crop in the months ahead. Planting conditions have been dry in Brazil so far, but light rains are expected in Mato Grosso this week, helping the new season begin. With USDA estimating just 92mb of soybean supplies in Brazil when the current season ends on January 31st, 2021, there is not room anywhere for a bullish surprise in this market. Brazil's soybean prices are high, giving producers plenty of incentive to expand production to record levels once again. We have seen this scenario before and it remains astonishing that world demand continues to take all the soybeans the U.S. and Brazil can grow and still threaten world inventory with the possibility of a tight supplies. For corn, I suspect this market will be unable to retreat as long as the threat of large Chinese corn buying persists. I’m hearing estimates of Chinese corn imports ranging from 20-30mmt. USDA is at 7mmt vs. 7mmt last year, which is silly since 9mmt is already on the books along with 2mmt or more from Ukraine as well. One factor that may be adding to the demand for U.S. agriculture in China is the rebuilding of hog herds in China decimated by African swine fever. Food waste is massive in China, where the culture prides itself in extravagant meals. There was a whole industry created to channel this food waste to hog farms prior to ASF, but that is now illegal due to the risk of spreading ASF. That food waste must be replaced, with corn and soymeal the primary components doing the job. Meanwhile, as noted yesterday, crop conditions do NOT line up with current U.S. yield, meaning that unless conditions suddenly improve 3 late in the season, there is another 3.5-7.0bpa of downside yield risk in the market. U.S. end users are getting antsy after buying hand to mouth for the last 5-6 years and will likely extend forward coverage on breaks while the U.S. farmer will be a holder of new crop corn at harvest. A look at 5 prior marketing years with 225mb or higher year to year gains in U.S. corn exports (USDA has 2020/21 U.S. corn exports up a conservative 425mb) shows prices steady to firmer into year’s end in 3 of the 5 years. The two exemptions were 1994/95 and 2016/17 (both record corn yields and big gains in 94/95 corn stocks). I would also point out that 1995/96 saw corn prices vault to a then record $5.50 after China unexpectedly bought 10mmt of U.S. corn, which could be dwarfed this year. Typhoons have ripped China’s major corn producing areas, which a key potential factor in surging U.S. corn exports. If one believes some initial estimates, 30% to 70% of the corn in China’s Jilin Province has been impacted. This is a major producing area (see map), but only time will tell how much of the crop was actually damaged.
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