S t a n f o r d U n i v e r s i t y C I S A C Center for International Security and Arms Control The Center for International Security and Arms Control, part of Stanford University’s Institute for International Studies, is a multidisciplinary community dedicated to research and train- ing in the field of international security. The Center brings together scholars, policymakers, scientists, area specialists, members of the business community, and other experts to examine a wide range of international security issues. CISAC publishes its own series of working papers and reports on its work and also sponsors a series, Studies in International Se- curity and Arms Control, through Stanford University Press. Center for International Security and Arms Control Stanford University 320 Galvez Street Stanford, California 94305-6165 (415) 723-9625 http://www-leland.stanford.edu/group/CISAC/ Building on the Basics: An Examination of High-Performance Computing Export Control Policy in the 1990s Seymour Goodman, Peter Wolcott, Grey Burkhart A Report of the Center for International Security and Arms Control Stanford University November 1995 The Center for International Security and Arms Control, part of Stanford University's Institute for International Studies, brings together Stanford researchers from several scholarly disciplines with senior specialists from around the world and pre- and postdoctoral fellows for research projects, seminars and conferences, and international scholarly exchange. The Center publishes its own series of reports and papers on its work and also sponsors a series, Studies in International Security and Arms Control, through Stanford University Press. The Center is grateful to the Carnegie Corporation of New York for supporting this project. The opinions expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent positions of the Center, its supporters, the United States government, or Stanford University. Center for International Security and Arms Control Stanford University 320 Galvez Street Stanford, California 94305-6165 (415) 723-9625 Douglas Peckler, Editorial Associate ISBN 0-935371-39-7 Abstract This paper reports the results of a study of the special export control regime for high-performance computers. The history and purpose of this export control regime are reviewed, and a framework for analysis is established, which can be used to test the basic premises on which the control regime rests and to suggest viable control thresholds. The fact that the export of certain computer systems cannot be effectively controlled is established, and the limits of controllability are defined. U.S. government applications for high-performance computers are reviewed with respect to the requirement for and criticality of such computing for national security. Finally, judgments are made as to the levels of control that are possible, and the desirability and feasibility of maintaining Such controls. Near- and intermediate-term problems that may erode the liability of the basic premises underlying high-performance computer export controls are identified. Disclaimer The views and opinions expressed herein do not necessarily reflect those of the United States Government, the Carnegie Corporation of New York, the Center for International Security and Arms Control, Stanford University or the University of Arizona, and shall not be used for advertising or product endorsement. Acknowledgments This study was sponsored by the Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Export Administration and the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Counterproliferation Policy, and funded by a contract from the U.S. Department of Commerce. Support was also received from the Carnegie Corporation of New York, the Center for International Security and Arms Control, Stanford University, and the University of Arizona, Ann Danowitz, of the University of Arizona, and Diane Goodman, of the Center for International Security and Arms Control, provided administrative and research assistance. Cameron Binkley, also of the Center for International Security and Arms Control provided research assistance and also drafted much of the first chapter. Lauren Rusk and Douglas Peckler provided editorial support. The Authors Seymour E. Goodman is Professor of Management Information Systems and Policy at the University of Arizona and Carnegie Science Fellow at the Center for International Security and Arms Control, Stanford University. His research interests include international developments in information technology and related public policy issues. Peter Wolcott is an assistant professor in the Department of Information Systems and Quantitative Analysis at the University of Nebraska, Omaha. His research interests include high-performance computing developments throughout the world, particularly in the former Soviet Union and People's Republic of China. Grey Burkhart is the president of Allied Communications Engineering, Inc., a consulting engineering firm in Fairfax, Virginia. Table of Contents Executive Summary v Key Findings vi Recommendations vi 1. The Origins and Purpose of High-Performance Computer Export Controls 1 The Recent Evolution of HPC Export Control Policy 1 Study Objectives and Structure 3 Methodology 4 2. Building on Basic Premises 8 The "Basic Premises" Behind Export Control Thresholds 8 Selecting an Export Control Threshold: A Dynamic Framework 9 Basic Premises and Future Scenarios 14 3. Establishing a Lower Bound 17 Trends in Foreign Indigenous HPC Systems 17 Trends in "Uncontrollable" UPC Systems 21 The Future Relationship of "Uncontrollable" and Foreign Indigenous HPC Systems 29 Key Findings and Conclusions 31 4. National Security Applications for High-Performance Computing 37 HPC Applications 37 The Collection of Data About National Security HPC Programs 39 HPC Mission Areas 42 Nuclear Weapons Programs 42 Cryptology 43 Advanced Conventional Weapons Programs 44 Military Operations 50 Key Findings and Conclusions 57 5. Applying the Basic Premises Analytical Framework: Results and Policy Implications 62 Establishing the Existence of a Valid Control Threshold 62 Selecting an Appropriate Control Threshold 64 Using the Methodology in the Future 65 6. Looking to the Future: Trends and Issues 68 Technology and Applications Trends 68 The Continuing Viability of the Current Control Regime 71 Conclusions and Recommendations for Further Study 74 Appendix A. Glossary of Acronyms Appendix B. Facilities Visited and People Interviewed List of Figures 1. Range of Computational Power for the F-22 Design 10 2. HPC Applications and Technology Trends 12 3. Hypothetical Distribution of Applications and Computer Installations 13 4. HPC in Russia, PRC, and India 21 5. Advances in 64-bit Microprocessors 22 6. Performance of "Uncontrollable" Symmetrical Multiprocessor Systems 27 7. Performance of Foreign and Domestic HPC Systems 32 8. Performance Distribution of S&T Applications (1994) 40 9. Performance Distribution of Current (1995) and Projected (1996) DT&E Applications 41 10. Distribution of Minimum Computational Requirements 59 11. Threshold Analysis: June 1995 Snapshot 62 12. Trends in Distribution of Top5OO Installations 68 13. Top5OO Trends and the Lower Bound of Controllability 69 List of Tables 1. Russian High-Performance Computing Systems 18 2. High-Performance Computing Systems of the PRC 19 3. Indian High-Performance Computing Systems 20 4. Controllability of Selected Commercial HPC Systems 26 5. Spectrum of HPC Architectures 28 6. Computational Technology Areas for Science and Technology Projects 37 7. Computational Functions for Developmental Test and Evaluation Projects 37 8. ACW Functional Areas 44 9. Aerodynamic Vehicle Design Functions 44 10. Submarine Design Functions 46 11. Surveillance Design Functions I 47 12. Survivability and Weapons Design Functions 49 13. Military Operations Functional Areas 51 14. Summary of Representative Computational Requirements for RDT&E 58 15. Summary of Representative Computational Requirements for Military Operations 58 16. Foreign Capability in Selected Applications 64 Executive Summary Export controls on dual-use technologies and products have been part of U.S. national security policies since the 1940s. Since the end of World War II, they have been applied with remarkable consistency, regardless of the makeup of Congress or who is in the White House. Export controls on high-performance computing (HPC) systems are implemented by determining a threshold definition of a "supercomputer," based essentially on a measure of processing power- Composite Theoretical Performance (CTP), measured in millions of theoretical operations per second (Mtops). Extraordinary licensing and safeguard conditions may be placed on the sale or transfer of any machine at or above that threshold. Three basic premises underlie this policy: 1. That there are problems of great national security importance that require high- performance computing for their solution, and these problems cannot be solved, or can only be solved in severely degraded forms, without such computing assets. 2. That there are countries of national security concern that have both the scientific and military wherewithal to pursue these or similar applications. 3. That there are features of these computers that permit effective forms of control. If the first two premises do not hold, there is no justification for the policy; without the third, no effective implementation is possible. A strong case can be made that all three premises held during the Cold War, and that