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Intelligence in the Post-Cold War Period from AFIO's the INTELLIGENCER Association of Former Intelligence Officers From AFIO's The Intelligencer 7700 Leesburg Pike Ste 324 Falls Church, VA 22043 Journal of U.S. Intelligence Studies Web: www.afio.com , E-mail: [email protected] Volume 19 • Number 3 • $15 single copy price Winter/Spring 2013 ©2012, AFIO German secret police, the “Stasi”, collapsed.1 The CIA managed to obtain copies of the Stasi’s foreign files, which revealed that almost all the CIA’s agents in the Guide to the Study of Intelligence GDR in 1988-1989 had been controlled by the Stasi.2 The files were used to prosecute Americans and West German citizens for treason.3 Motivated to gain mem- bership in NATO and the European Union (EU), the Intelligence in the services of other Eastern European states were quick to purge their ranks of agents who had ties to seri- Post-Cold War Period ous corruption, organized crime or previous human rights abuses.4 A similar transition to democratically — Part I — accountable intelligence soon occurred in South Africa The Changed Environment when apartheid collapsed in 1994.5 Nearly two decades later repressive security services in the Middle East would implode following the popular revolts of the 6 by Stephen H. Campbell, B.Sc., M.A.L.D. Arab Spring. Like the Communist Party and the USSR itself, the KGB became a major casualty of the failed 1991 he role of intelligence has undergone funda- coup to oust Mikhail Gorbachev.7 Almost all of the mental shifts since the end of the Cold War. leadership were implicated. The KGB was broken up TIntelligence is no longer the purview of a few into five services,8 but, in contrast to East Germany, high-level decision makers. It is now everybody’s busi- only a limited effort was made to open the KGB ness. Within conflict zones intelligence is collected, archives.9 Although thousands of former KGB pro- analyzed and used at lower and lower levels of com- mand. Within the tranquility of domestic life local law 1. Civil activists occupied offices of the Ministerium für Staatssi- enforcement and even ordinary citizens have become cherheit (Ministry of State Security) and revealed a vast network producers and consumers of intelligence. Publics of informants that had spied on neighbors, friends and family. expect their security and intelligence agencies to be With 91,015 staff and 189,000 informants or “Inoffizielle Mi- tarbeiter” (unofficial employees), 1 in 50 of the population had more proactive and collaborative at home and abroad ties to the Stasi. Thomas Wegener Friis, Kristie Macrakis and to preempt security threats. At the same time they Helmut Mueller-Enbergs (Eds.), East German Foreign Intelligence. expect their governments to uphold their civil liberties. Myth, Reality and Controversy (New York: Routledge, 2010), 3. 2. Ibid, 4-5, 7. Also Robert Gerald Livingston, “Rosenholz. This article explores the causes and nature of Mischa’s Files, CIA’s Booty,” in Ibid, 74-75. these shifts. The approach is more thematic than 3. Livingston, “Rosenholz,” 79-80. chronological. Intelligence does not operate in a 4. Thomas C. Bruneau and Florina Cristiana (Cris) Matei, vacuum. It is shaped by the nature of the threats that “Intelligence in the Developing Democracies: The Quest for Transparency and Effectiveness,” in Loch Johnson (Ed.), The it must confront and the environment within which Oxford Handbook of National Security Intelligence (Oxford: Oxford it operates. The collapse of the Soviet Empire led to University Press, 2010). a proliferation of new states and left power gaps that 5. Paul Todd and Jonathan Bloch, Global Intelligence: The World’s Secret Services Today (London: Zed Books, 2003), Chapter 7, “Intel- others were quick to fill. New threats emerged from ligence in the South.” sub-state actors. It also removed the largest imped- 6. For example, Egypt’s notorious State Security Investigation iment to global capitalism. As great power conflict Service was disbanded on March 15, 2001, and replaced on May became a distant memory, economic espionage 3, 2001, by a new “National Security Service.” “Egyptians Doubt- ful About New Secret Service,” Hiiraan Online, May 9, 2011. increased, the criminal underworld feasted on the 7. Todd and Bloch, Global Intelligence, Chapter 5, “From KGB to rewards of a deregulated global economy, and intel- FSB and Back Again?” ligence agencies increasingly turned to a burgeoning 8. The five agencies are the SVR (foreign intelligence), FSB (internal security), FAPSI (communications), FSO (federal commercial sector for help. protection), and GUSP (special programs). Military intelligence, the GRU, was left largely untouched. Robert W. Pringle, “The Intelligence Services of Russia,” in Loch Johnson (Ed.), The Oxford Handbook of National Security Intelligence (Oxford: Oxford THE COLLAPSE OF THE SOVIET UNION University Press, 2010). See also Robert Pringle’s article “Guide to Soviet and Russian Intelligence Services” in the Winter/Spring After the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the East 2011 edition of Intelligencer. 9. It was not until the defection of KGB archivist Vasili Mitrokh- in to Great Britain in 1992 that many of the Cold War secrets Winter/Spring 2013 Intelligencer: Journal of U.S. Intelligence Studies Page 45 fessionals left the services in the 1990s, some of the developing countries whose fragile regimes could most effective Russian assets remained in place. In no longer count on the support of the superpowers,17 1995, the CIA discovered that Aldrich Ames had been and in the developed world, where the hiring freezes spying for the Russians for 10 years. A few years later of the 1990s, the expanding global economy, and the Robert Hanssen, an FBI agent, was arrested, having increased tempo after 9/11 combined to turn them into spied for the Russians for 20 years.10 By the first decade major players in the world of intelligence.18 of the 21st century Russian espionage efforts against the US were back at “Cold War levels”11 and the FSB was demonstrating the ruthlessness of its predecessor.12 THE EMERGENCE OF NEW THREATS This resurgence reflected the priorities of President Putin, a former KGB officer, who took over from Yeltsin During the Cold War the core intelligence task in 1999, and brought former members of the KGB, of western agencies was to monitor the USSR’s stra- 13 dubbed “siloviki,” into government and industry. tegic and military posture.19 When the Soviet Empire Western intelligence agencies were downsized collapsed this task assumed a much lower priority.20 after the Cold War. The Dutch foreign intelligence ser- Economics became the new battleground.21 But it was vice was for a short time actually abolished and some not long before new security challenges emerged. Iraq suggested there was no longer need for the German invaded Kuwait and “low intensity conflicts” broke out Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND). But cooler heads in the Balkans, the Horn of Africa and Afghanistan.22 14 prevailed. Across the board, human intelligence took The reordering of the system following the end of the the largest hit. In the US a peace dividend of around Cold War altered cost-benefit calculations and led to 30% was implemented by the end of the 1990s and increased contestations for power in many parts of the 15 the CIA’s budget was slashed by 23%. One important world, requiring a dramatic increase in the number of outgrowth of security sector reform and downsizing UN peacekeeping operations.23 was the rise of private corporations offering security 16 and intelligence services. These found a market in Military Industry (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2003); Robert Young Pelton, Licensed to Kill: Hired Guns in the War on Terror (New York: Crown Publishers, 2006). of the KGB were revealed. See Christopher Andrew and Vasili 17. Elke Krahmann, “Private Security and Military Actors,” in Mitrohkin, The Sword and the Shield: The Mitrohkin Archive and the Robert A. Denemark (Ed.), The International Studies Encyclopedia, Secret History of the KGB (New York: Basic Books, 1999), and The Blackwell Publishing, 2010, Blackwell Reference Online. World Was Going Our Way: the KGB and the Battle for the Third World 18. Companies such as Booz Allen Hamilton, Lockheed Martin, (New York: Basic Books, 2005). SAIC, L3 Communications, CACI International and IBM are now 10. Todd and Bloch, 74-75. The Aspin-Brown Commission in full partners with the CIA, the NSA and the Pentagon in their 1995 concluded that Ames had ruined the CIA’s ability to spy most sensitive operations. By one estimate in 2008 the outsourc- against the Soviets during the final years of the Cold War. As a ing of intelligence activities in the US was a $50B a year business result of his treachery at least 10 Agency assets inside the Soviet consuming 70% of the intelligence budget. Tim Shorrock, Spies government in Moscow were executed. Among the secrets that for Hire: The Secret World of Intelligence Outsourcing (New York: Si- Hanssen revealed was how American officials planned to contin- mon and Schuster, 2008); Aldrich, “Beyond the Vigilant State”; ue governance if a nuclear war broke out with Russia. Loch K. Krahmann, “Private Security and Military Actors.” Johnson, National Security Intelligence: Secret Operations in Defense of 19. This meant gathering intelligence on missile deployments, the Democracies (Cambridge, UK: Polity Press, 2012), 116-118. Soviet troop movements and military plans. Andrew Rathmell, 11. Mary Louise Kelly, “U.S. Official: Russian Espionage at ‘Cold “Towards Postmodern Intelligence,” Intelligence and National War Levels’,” NPR, June 6, 2007. Security, 17:3, 2002. 12. Incidents include the FSB storming of the Nord-Ost Theater 20. Compared to 58% in 1980, in 1993 only 13% of the US in 2002 and the Beslan School in 2004, in which many hostag- intelligence budget was aimed at Russia.
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