Indo- Pacific Deterrence and the Quad in 2030
FEATURE Indo- Pacific Deterrence and the Quad in 2030 LT COL JUSTIN L. DIEHL, USAF hina is clearly demonstrating a desire to grow as a global power and ex- pand its influence as a hegemon in the Indo-Pacific region. Beijing’s non- transparent and provocative strategies to achieve that expansion through Crapidly growing military capabilities, the militarization of South China Sea island features, gray- zone activities, and increased authoritarian behaviors are but a few trends that have raised tensions and uncertainties in the regional order. As China increases expansionism, it is unlikely that any one nation can solely provide suf- ficient and credible deterrence to counter an unimpeded rise. The Indo- Pacific region lacks a multilateral entity with the strength, resolve, and congruence of a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), established to deter aggression in Europe. The Quad nations of the United States, Australia, Japan, and India will need to become that collective, viable, and credible deterrence solution. While debate surrounding the official formation of the Quad will undoubtedly continue and all instruments of power across the diplomatic, informational, mili- tary, and economic (DIME) spectrum will be in play, this article will articulate steps that will be required for the Quad to effectively execute deterrence through the lens of military, hard-power solutions. The questions this research seeks to answer are: What will it take, in terms of strategy, investments, and will, for the Quad to credibly deter the rise of an Indo-Pacific hegemon, and how can the Quad collectively provide a military deterrence solution by 2030? Different from previous research, this article will look to provide tangible solutions and demon- strate how the Quad nations can provide that path to deterrence.
[Show full text]