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United Arab Emirates Riskline / Country Report / 29 August 2021 UNITED ARAB EMIRATES Overall risk level High Reconsider travel Can be dangerous and may present unexpected security risks Travel is possible, but there is a potential for disruptions Overview Emergency Numbers Medical 998; 112 Upcoming Events There are no upcoming events scheduled Riskline / Country Report / 29 August 2021 / United Arab Emirates 2 Travel Advisories Riskline / Country Report / 29 August 2021 / United Arab Emirates 3 Summary The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is a High Risk destination: reconsider travel. High Risk locations can be dangerous and may present unexpected security risks. Travel is possible, but there is a potential for severe or widespread disruptions. Covid-19 High Risk The UAE initially kept cases and fatalities low after imposing stringent curfews and lockdowns to prevent the spread of COVID-19. However, as of late-August 2021, around 1000 new cases are being detected per day, and tighter restrictions could once again be implemented. Political Instability Moderate Risk The country is run as a federal monarchy of seven emirates, where subsidies and social benefits derived from high oil revenues condition a politically apathetic population. Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (MBZ), the crown prince of Abu Dhabi, is the country's de facto leader. He is staunchly opposed to political Islam and has overseen domestic and regional crackdowns to stamp out its supporters, real or imagined. Conflict Moderate Risk The UAE’s main conflict is with political Islam, particularly the Muslim Brotherhood. It partnered with Saudi Arabia against Qatar over its support for them and radicals, across the region in 2017. The dispute ended on paper in January 2021 due to American pressure, but underlying issues remain unresolved. Domestically, there is no opposition or Islamists in the UAE, so MBZ’s campaign has played out in Egypt, Libya, Syria and Yemen, where the UAE is fighting the Iran-allied Houthis. There is an ongoing conflict with Iran over control of Abu Mousa, the Greater and Lesser Tunbs islands, but escalation is unlikely. Terrorism Medium Risk The UAE's closeness to the United States (US) and Israel and its campaign against political Islam has made it an explicit target of terror threats. The country is, however, heavily policed and emergency response services meet international standards. Unrest Moderate Risk Protests are uncommon across the country. The only people likely to attempt to hold strikes are low- paid foreign workers over poor working conditions and delayed wages. However, the authorities closely monitor these communities and are always on the hunt for possible organisers, making strike actions unlikely. Riskline / Country Report / 29 August 2021 / United Arab Emirates 4 Crime Moderate Risk Crime rates are low across the country. The most common type of crime is sexual harassment for women. Assault is rare, as are all other forms of violent crimes. Natural and Environmental Moderate Risk Sandstorms and heatwaves are common during summer from July to September. The country is somewhat vulnerable to flash floods during rainy seasons and to earthquakes, but they occur rarely. Emergency response services meet international standards. Health and Medical Low Risk Medical care across the country meets international standards. Virtually all doctors and nurses are highly trained and speak English. Some common medicines, including sleeping pills, are banned in the UAE, or require a prescription. Local Travel Moderate Risk Although road conditions are of good quality across the country, speeding and reckless driving have given the UAE one of the highest rates of road deaths in the world. While public transport services are limited, particularly outside Dubai and Abu Dhabi, they are reliable and safe. Taxis are safer and more readily available. Riskline / Country Report / 29 August 2021 / United Arab Emirates 5 Political Overview : Moderate Risk Administratively, the UAE is a federation of seven emirates (Abu Dhabi, Ajman, Fujairah, Sharjah, Dubai, Ras al-Khaimah and Umm al-Qaiwain), each with its own hereditary ruler. Federal powers have developed slowly and each emirate reserves control over mineral rights (notably oil) and revenues. The relative oil wealth and financial influence of each emirate is reflected in the allocation of positions in the federal government. By custom, the presidency and position of head of state are de facto hereditary to the Al-Nahyan clan of Abu Dhabi (the UAE's largest oil producer) while the premiership and position of head of government is hereditary to the Al-Maktoom clan of Dubai (the UAE's commercial center and a significant oil producer). With the death of his father on 2 November 2004, Khalifa bin Zayed Al-Nahyan became president of the United Arab Emirates and looked poised to take an important step towards democratic government. However, the relatively immaterial 2005 Federal National Council (FNC) elections served only to provide a veneer of democracy for a country in which government largesse has kept the public politically demobilized. High oil revenues allow for very low rates of taxation and at the same time subsidize primary commodities, free health care and free education. As a result, there is very little civil unrest in the UAE and the government is rarely held to account. The commercial production of oil in the UAE, home to the world's fifth largest reserves of conventional crude, triggered a dependence on expatriate labour (al-Wafedeen) that has produced one of the most diverse populations in the Middle East. Emirati nationals account for only about 20 percent of the population, with the remainder made up of foreign workers and their families. South Asians alone account for at least 50 percent of the country's population of 4.3 million. Though non- UAE citizens have very few political rights and are strictly banned from forming political parties and associations, the last five years have seen a spike in labour riots and debilitating strikes. Disgruntled labourers calling for pay rises to counter the falling value of the dirham against global currencies, especially the Indian rupee, have increasingly taken their grievances to the streets in illegal protests. Burj Dubai and Sharjah labour camp strikes have fuelled support for proposals that seek to alter the demographic balance of the UAE such that no nationality can represent more than 25% of the population [see Civil Unrest section for further details]. There are no recent incidents Riskline / Country Report / 29 August 2021 / United Arab Emirates 6 Conflict : Moderate Risk Border Conflicts: Iranian war games and settlement construction in the territorial waters, air space, economic zones and coral reefs of several occupied islands off Sharjah's coast are regularly denounced as gross violations of UAE sovereignty and territorial integrity. The contested islands of Abu Mousa, the Greater and Lesser Tunbs are commonly referred to as "occupied Arab territories" by UAE authorities and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which has openly condemned Iranian construction of two offices, a marine rescue centre and a registration office for ships and sailors on Abu Mousa Island. Though trade relations are strong, Iranian coastal authorities continue to arrest fishermen who venture onto the islands, a policy that risks destabilizing diplomatic relations. In late 2009, the UAE government began tightening oversight of government workers and foreign residents over concerns that Iranian-linked sleeper cells were attempting to infiltrate the civil service to gain access to critical sectors including energy, banking and transportation. An unspecified number of Emirati citizens and expatriates in the civil service were reassigned or stripped of responsibilities. International Military Alliances: The United Arab Emirates is a de facto member of the United States' strategic umbrella in the Gulf region and enjoys security guarantees from the US, Britain, and France. International Forces on Territory: The UAE provides extensive port facilities and ship repair facilities for the US Navy at the ports of Jebel Ali and Fujairah. The Fujairah to Jebel Ali land link is the Navy's logistics pipeline to the Gulf should the Strait of Hormuz be closed in any conflict with Iran. Cargo unloaded at Fujairah, on the Gulf of Oman, can be subsequently transported via highway to destinations on the Arabian Gulf and hence bypass the need for transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The US Air Force maintains tankers, surveillance and reconnaissance aircraft at al Dhafra Air Base. In May 2009 France opened a base in the Abu Dhabi emirate, the country's first military facility in the Gulf region. The camp will serve as a naval and air base, with up to 500 service personnel stationed there. The personnel are intended to serve a training and support capacity rather than provide operational backing. Strength of Military Forces: The confluence of regional security imperatives and immediate wealth has positioned the UAE to maintain a credible deterrent force as a procurer, not a producer, of arms. In December 2007, weapons manufacturers Lockheed Martin and Raytheon were working on an order worth up to USD9bn to supply the Patriot Advanced Capability-3 missile systems and associated equipment and services to the UAE. The Patriot system has been promoted among US allies in the Gulf as a defensive shield in the context of a potential military confrontation with nearby Iran, which has been building up its arsenal of offensive missiles. Riskline / Country Report / 29 August 2021 / United Arab Emirates 7 Terrorism Though the country faces a threat from international jihadist movements that have explicitly named the UAE as a likely target, a history free from any major attacks suggests that the Gulf state's security forces are capable of successfully dissuading or interrupting militant attacks. Resident Islamists detained over threats to state security tend to come from the more religiously conservative northern emirates such as Sharjah and Ras al-Khaimah, which produced one of the September 11 hijackers.
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