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P04 Sustainable Ethanol – What Is the Context

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P04 Sustainable Ethanol – What Is the Context Sustainble Ethanol What is the context? End of oil future for… for transports? EU report on Security of Supply Dependency on Oil Imports 70% 2020 Æ 90%! Transport sector´s dependency on Oil 97%! Dependency on transports Growing Source: European Commission Global development of Light-duty Vehicles 2007 Source: WBCSD, 2004a. Carbon emissions per capita 6.00 USA Max 2 billion ton C/yr 8 billion people ! 5.00 Canada, Australia, New Zealand 250 Kg C/capita 4.00 Russia Industrial world rbon per capita) 3.00 Japan OECD Europe 2.00 Other EIT Middle East World Average 1.00 China Latin America Other Asia Developing world Africa India Emissions (ton ca - 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Population (million) Source: Chalmers 2004-10-02/LN How much Gasoline- Diesel /capita? • 250 Kg of Carbon/Capita/year ….. • ….equals to 850 Kg of CO2 • Assuming 35% of CO2 emissions from transports (today 22%) • Leaves 300 Kg of CO2 for transports/capita/year • 50% is commercial => 150 Kg CO2 for private use • 150 Kg of CO2 = 60 litres of Gasoline/year 54 litres of Diesel/year Carbon emissions per capita,6.00 2050 USA 2 billion ton C/yr 5.00 8 billion people Canada, Australia, New Zealand 250 Kg C/capita 4.00One litre of fossil gasoline/diesel /week 3.00 Russia Industrial world Japan OECD Europe 2.00 Other EIT Middle East World Average 1.00 China Latin America Other Asia Developing world Africa India Emissions (ton carbon per capita) - 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Population (million) Source: Chalmers 2004-10-02/LN The challenge! CO2 & Oil Dependency 80-90% reduction of CO2 to 2050! Transports needs special attention Magnitude of a paradigm/system shift We are not doing enough, fast enough Urgency for serious action! What to do with transports? Oil Dependency & Fossil CO2 1. Curb the growth for transports, decoupling 2. Increase energy efficiency, dramatically 3. Large systems shift towards renewable fuels What role for BioFuels? BioFuels for Transport: A Global Perspective OECD/IEA www.iea.org/books Three key messages OECD/IEA • Biomass potential • Global potential for biomass can be sufficient for >2/3 of current global demand for transport energy • CO2 reduction • Cellulose based ethanol and synthesis gas has the potential to reduce 90-100% of fossil CO2 “Well-to-Wheel” . • Sugarcane based ethanol provides already 85% net CO2 reduction • Cost efficient • Cellulose based ethanol and synthesis gas can be as cost efficient as any other major alternative to mitigate fossil CO2. • Sugarcane based ethanol is already cheaper then world market priced gasoline. Negative CO2 mitigation cost McKinsey 2007 Biofuels for Transport: Global Potential and Implications for Energy and Agriculture. www.worldwatch.org McKinsey/Vattenfall study CELLULOSIC ETHANOL SUGARCANE ETHANOL FUEL EFFICIENT VEHICLES FUEL EFFICIENT COMMERCIAL VEHICLES How do we develop large scale systems of energy efficient vehicles using Sustainable BioFuels? 2005-04-11/LN Sweden A biofuel nation Sweden shall be free from oil dependency by 2020! Primeminister Göran Persson November 5, 2005 Sweden year ? • 5 million cars 8 Million m3 ethanol/year • 1600 liter/year Grain 2000l/ha 4.000.000 ha Sugarcane 8000l/ha 1.000.000 ha + Sugarcane + cellulose bagass 12000l/ha 650.000 ha + Todays hybrids 0,7l/10km 450.000 ha + Plug-in hybrids 0,3l/10km 200.000 ha FlexiFuel in Sweden 160000 140000 120000 100000 Fordon80000 60000 40000 20000 2005-03-04/LN 0 1996 total35% sales of 1997 total25% sales of 2009 1998 2008 1999 total12% sales of 2000 2007 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 FlexiFuel share of offerings.. > 50% Seat Leon 50 Peugote 407 PeugeotVolvo V50308 Mazda 6 MazdaSaab 5 9-5 40 Ford Galaxy FordFord S-Max Focus Ford C-Max Renault Laguna 30 Citroen C4 Renault Twingo VW Jetta Volvo C30 caca 12% 12% 20 Renault Megane Skoda Octavia Audi A3 Peugeot 307 10 VW Golf Saab 9-3 Volvo V70 Volvo V50/S40 00 Saab 9-5 20072007 2008 Ford Focus A dynamic development It took ten years to open the first 100 filling stations with E85. The last 100 stations opened in the past three months. 300 000 000 250 000 000 200 000 000 Liter150 000 000 100 000 000 E85 - Års volym 50 000 000 >75% fills up with E85! 0 jan-06 mar-06 maj-06 jul-06 sep-06 nov-06 jan-07 mar-07 maj-07 jul-07 sep-07 nov-07 Månad jan-08 mar-08 maj-08 jul-08 sep-08 nov-08 jan-09 mar-09 maj-09 jul-09 300 000 000 250 000 000 200 000 000 Liter150 000 000 100 000 000 E85 - Års volym 50 000 000 0 jan-06 m ar-06 m aj-06 jul-06 sep-0 6 nov-0 6 jan-07 m ar-07 m aj-0 7 jul-07 sep-0 7 nov-0 7 Månad jan-08 m ar-08 m aj-08 jul-08 sep-0 8 nov-0 8 jan-09 m ar-09 m aj-09 jul-0 9 World´s First E100 Hybrid (Plug In) Volvo "ReCharge Concept" Limited range on electricity + FlexiFuel engine for BioEthanol CO2 emissions from road transports in Sweden 50% 40% 30% Goods 20% Person Total 10% 0% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 -10% Compared to emissions in 1990 Goods = 4,0 Mtons Person = 13,0 Mtons Source: SIKA From1986, Stockholm: no new purchases of diesel buses Euro 5 and EEV ethanol engine Highly9-litre diesel engineefficient diesel combustionScania EGR 270 hp, 1200 Nm Thermal efficiency Ethanol up to 43% Diesel up to 44% Proven technology 600 buses sold since 1989 UpUp toto 90%90% COCO2- -savingsaving Buses and trucks on 95% ethanol ElectricElectric HybridHybrid onon BioEthanolBioEthanol 1010 busesbuses inin 20082008 2004-01-08/KS Ethanol for heavy vehicles Infrastructure Phase 1 Infrastructure England Stage 1 McKinsey 2007 Ethanol pilote plant Total Accumulated Operating Hours Jan 2008 12000 10000 8000 More than 11 000 h of operation 6000 experiences 4000 2000 Ackumulerad drifttid i timmar 0 200501 200502 200503 200504 200505 200506 200507 200508 200509 Production record 200510 200511 559h in one month 200512 200601 200602 200603 200604 200605 200606 200607 200608 200609 200610 200611 200612 200701 200702 200703 200704 200705 200706 200707 200708 200709 200710 200711 200712 200801 Development is biggest when it feels toughest! Operating efficiency in pilot plant Drifttid 25 100 Drifttid 90 % drift av planerad 20 80 70 15 60 50 % Dygn 10 40 30 5 20 % of planned operation Operation in days per month 10 0 0 200708 200709 200710 200711 200712 200801 Energy balance in a BioRefinery integration with CHP Ethanol Ethanol factory/ Total CHP efficiency Woodchips1) 75- 80 % Solid biofuels El/heat Biogas 1) Based on soft wood Process energy & losses 20-25 % Energy balance for ethanol production from bagasse Ethanol plant Ethanol - bagasse cellulose Integrated with Bagasse CHP plant (100 % DS) Solid fuels Heat/ power Alt. sold as solid fuel or Biogas refined Energy losses (including process energy for ethanol plant) Energy efficiency ~80 % Ca 75% of the coniferous forests Nordic countries Percent of Boreal forests Canada Russia USA Norway Finland Sweden (Alaska) 22 73 > 1 5 Feedstock Litre ethanol + cellulose per ha/year Corn 3.000 + stover +1.500 4.500 Wheat 2.000 + straw +1.000 3.000 Sugarcane 8.000 + bagasse +4.000 12.000 SEKAB will market and deliver the cellulose technology worldwide Wood Different locations Wood Wood, and feedstock Sweet requires different sorghum technical- and business solutions. Wood, Wood, Bagasse Bagasse Bagasse, Sweet sorghum GRAIN Æ SUGAR CANE → CELLULOSE BIOMASS Cellulose Industrial Development Plant START 2011 Sugarcane Today Sugarcane ethanol, a driver! Ethanol export from Brazil to Europa, cbm Swedish share 700 000 600 000 500 000 400 000 300 000 42 % 40 % 200 000 32 % 100 000 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 BioEnergi Potential 2050 Different scenarios 136 111 68 32 40 221 14 2 0 178 137 111 W.Europe CIS & 1 81417 34 39 Baltic States 21 32 10 4 1 2 E.Europe 0000 Near East & 410 East Asia Japan North America 315 North Africa 331 21 24 253 14 21 178 South Asia 125 100 149 46 60 15 41 Source: Smeets, Faaij 2004 Caribean & Oceania harvesting residues Latin America sub-Saharan bioenergy crops Africa SECTION 5: SEKAB BUSINESS AREAS Sustainable low-cost ethanol supply Ethanol trading 0 400 Comprehensive strategy • Green & Efficient Vehicles • Cellulose based BioFuels • AID Æ Trade BioEnergi Potential 2050 Different scenarios 136 111 68 32 40 221 14 2 0 178 137 111 W.Europe CIS & 1 81417 34 39 Baltic States 21 32 10 4 1 2 E.Europe 0000 Near East & 410 East Asia Japan North America 315 North Africa 331 21 24 253 14 21 178 South Asia 125 100 149 46 60 15 41 Source: Smeets, Faaij 2004 Caribean & Oceania harvesting residues Latin America sub-Saharan bioenergy crops Africa Africa : - Highest vulnerability for expensive oil - Contributed least to Climate change - To pay the highest price for climate change + Best natural conditions, photosynthesis + Surplus land with water + Gigantic need for social- & economical development + Available labour force + Potential platform for large scale exports TANZANIA MOZAMBIQUE Substituting 100% of domestic gasoline and diesel would take 1-2%* of arable land! Domestic Market Land increment for 100% substitution National Platform = of Gasoline = 11,1% 0,3% •Assumptions: 20% of the country as arable land Productivity is 8,000 Lts/hectare.year National platform = 2,000,000 hectares % of arable land in Tanzania for other purposes = 88.6% Challenge! It has to be done with sustainable practices! Ecologically & Socially A great opportunity for global impact! The world 2050 • 1,5 Billion cars 2400 Million m3 ethanol/year • 1600 liter/year Grain 2000l/ha 1.200.000.000 ha Sugarcane 8000l/ha 300.000.000 ha + Sugarcane + cellulose bagass 12000l/ha 200.000.000 ha + Todays hybrids 0,7l/10km 140.000.000 ha + Plug-in
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