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University of Florida Thesis Or Dissertation Formatting POLITICAL TRUST IN TURKEY: A STUDY OF THE DETERMINANTS OF PUBLIC ATTITUDES TOWARD INSTITUTIONS By TAHIR ENES GEDIK A DISSERTATION PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA 2018 © 2018 Tahir Enes Gedik To my family ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to start by thanking my dissertation advisor Alin M. Ceobanu for his support, encouragement and patience over the years, which made it possible for me to design, manage and complete this dissertation project. To him I owe great intellectual debt. During the past five years, he has been an ideal mentor and supervisor, combining and balancing intellectual freedom and critical involvement in my research through his advice, wisdom and knowledge. During this research, I also had the great pleasure and privilege of working with my dissertation committee of Aida A. Hozic, Charles Gattone and Tamir Sorek. I would like to express my great appreciation to them for reading this dissertation at various stages of development, sharing their knowledge and insights on the topic and countries analyzed, and passing on their passion and energy to strive for more rigor. It was their thought-provoking questions, useful comments and thorough reviews, which improved this study significantly. I am very indebted to many friends and colleagues who have supported me throughout my academic journey at UF. I would especially like to thank Ozcan Tunalilar, Tolga Tezcan, Onur Muftugil, Sara Moore, Cristina Ramos, Johanna Espin and John Blasing. Finally, this dissertation would not have come to fruition without the endless support of my family, and my wife, Sevcan Gugumcu. 4 TABLE OF CONTENTS page ACKNOWLEDGMENTS .................................................................................................. 4 LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................ 8 LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................ 10 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ........................................................................................... 12 ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................... 13 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................... 15 Political Trust in the World of Troubled Democracies ............................................. 15 Turkey: The Question of Exceptionalism and Polarization ...................................... 19 Outline of the Study ................................................................................................ 22 2 EXCEPTION, RELIGION AND DIFFERENCE: EXPLAINING POLITICAL TRUST IN MUSLIM MAJORITY COUNTRIES AND TURKEY ............................... 26 Political Trust as Institutional Confidence ............................................................... 29 Determinants of Political Trust ................................................................................ 30 Political Trust and Religion: A Neglected Factor? ................................................... 32 Turkish Exceptionalism: Islam and Secularization .................................................. 35 Data and Methods .................................................................................................. 38 Dependent Variables ........................................................................................ 39 Independent Variables ..................................................................................... 41 Analytic Strategy .............................................................................................. 43 Results .................................................................................................................... 44 Concluding Remarks............................................................................................... 47 3 POLITICAL TRUST AND PARTISAN POLARIZATION IN TURKEY ...................... 66 Research on Political Trust in Turkey ..................................................................... 66 Polarization and Political Trust ................................................................................ 70 Polarization in Turkey ............................................................................................. 73 Data and Methods .................................................................................................. 76 Data .................................................................................................................. 76 Dependent Variables ........................................................................................ 76 Independent Variables ..................................................................................... 79 Analysis and Results............................................................................................... 81 Trust in Army .................................................................................................... 81 Trust in Courts (Justice System) ...................................................................... 82 5 Trust in Police ................................................................................................... 83 Trust in Government ......................................................................................... 84 Trust in Parliament ........................................................................................... 85 Trust in Civil Service ......................................................................................... 86 Trust in Political Parties .................................................................................... 87 Concluding Remarks............................................................................................... 88 4 TRENDS IN POLITICAL TRUST IN TURKEY: 1990-2017 ................................... 101 Trends in Political Trust in the United States and Western Europe ...................... 102 Data and Methods ................................................................................................ 106 Data ................................................................................................................ 106 Analytic Strategy ............................................................................................ 107 Analysis and Results............................................................................................. 108 World Values Survey ...................................................................................... 108 Eurobarometer ............................................................................................... 113 Discussion and Concluding Remarks ................................................................... 116 5 TURKISH POLITICAL HISTORY: RETHINKING POLITICAL TRUST .................. 134 Emergence of the Bureaucracy: Reform Movement Before and After the Tanzimat ............................................................................................................ 134 The Constitutional Period and the Hamidian Era .................................................. 142 Young Turk Revolution and the CUP .................................................................... 144 The Ideology of the CUP and Late Ottoman Mentality .......................................... 146 The Republican Period: A New Beginning? .......................................................... 149 Multiparty Period: Democratization or Authoritarian Persistence .......................... 153 Discussion: Rethinking Culture and Political Trust ................................................ 157 6 CONCLUSION ...................................................................................................... 162 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 162 Summary of Findings ............................................................................................ 163 Limitations and Future Directions ......................................................................... 169 APPENDIX A QUESTION WORDING AND RESPONSE CATEGORIES ................................... 172 B CODING AND DESCRIPTION OF VARIABLES ................................................... 173 C LOCALLY WEIGHTED SCATTERPLOT SMOOTHING ....................................... 176 D OPTIMIZATION PLOTS ........................................................................................ 178 E TRENDS IN POLITICAL TRUST WITH SELECTED EVENTS ............................. 180 LIST OF REFERENCES ............................................................................................. 183 6 BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH .......................................................................................... 200 7 LIST OF TABLES Table page 2-1 Measurement Invariance Results (MGCFA) ....................................................... 50 2-2 Logistic Regression Analysis of Trust in Army across Selected Muslim Majority and European Countries (Average Marginal Effects) ............................ 51 2-3 Logistic Regression Analysis of Trust in Courts across Selected Muslim Majority and European Countries (Average Marginal Effects) ............................ 53 2-4 Logistic Regression Analysis of Trust in Police across Selected Muslim
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