Revealed Comparative Advantage: a Study of India and ASEAN Economies
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Lal Bahadur Shastri Institute of Management, Delhi LBSIM Working Paper Series LBSIM/WP/2020/18 Revealed Comparative Advantage: A Study of India and ASEAN economies Rashmi Ahuja August,2020 LBSIM Working Papers indicate research in progress by the author(s) and are brought out to elicit ideas, comments, insights and to encourage debate. The views expressed in LBSIM Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the LBSIM nor its Board of Governors. WP/August2020/18 LBSIM Working Paper Research Cell Revealed Comparative Advantage: A Study of India and ASEAN economies Rashmi Ahuja Lal Bahadur Shastri Institute of Management Dwarka , Delhi Abstract The trade relations between India and ASEAN economies have gained more attention among academicians and researchers especially after India initiated ‘Look East Policy’ in 1991. It gained even more importance after its upgraded version of ‘Act East policy’ and also the recent withdrawal of India from Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). This paper aims to explore India’s comparative advantage with that of nine ASEAN economies in different product groups at SITC one-digit level classification for the period 2009-2018. This empirical analysis uses Balassa (1965) measure of Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA). Our findings suggest that India has maintained stable comparative advantage in two primary product group and two labour-intensive product groups while Indonesia has maintained comparative advantage in highest number of product groups among all ASEAN economies over the considered period of study. Further, we identified that India could leverage its trade potential in two product groups i.e. Chemical and related products & manufactured Goods to further strengthen its trade relation with ASEAN. Keywords: Revealed Comparative advantage, ASEAN , India JEL classification: F14, F10, F13, B27,F4 Revealed Comparative Advantage: A Study of India and ASEAN economies 1. Introduction International trade has been one of the important elements of globalization during the past few decades. A number of International Trade theories (For instance, Absolute advantage, Comparative advantage by Ricardo, H-O theory, New trade theories etc) came up and tried to explain the reasons for occurrence of trade and the various patterns of international trade that exists among the countries. However, Ricardo’s Comparative advantage is still widely used as one of the important reasons for international trade and predicting the bilateral trade relations between the countries. The comparative advantage relates about how much productive or cost efficient is one country to another. After the pioneer work by Balassa (1965), Revealed comparative advantage (RCA) index became the standard method of calculating the comparative advantage in different economies. Established in 1967, ASEAN has now become one of the growth centres in the world economy. ASEAN is a diverse group consisting of economies at different levels of development such as Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. If ASEAN were a single market then it represents the third largest market after China and India. Bilateral Relations between India and ASEAN get more strengthened with the formulation of ‘Look East Policy’ initiated in 1991. Further, India has also signed a bilateral free trade agreement (FTA) with ASEAN. India’s bilateral trade with ASEAN stood at $142bn in 2018 which is expected to reach $300 billion by 20251. Of total $142 bn total trade, $97 billion is in the merchandise and around $45 billion is in services. There has also been huge amount of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) equity inflows into India from ASEAN economies i.e. $91 billion for the period April 2000-June 2009. Further, there has been economic cooperation between ASEAN and India in the form of various Joint ventures, aids and other incentives. After the withdrawal of India from Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), India’s existing bilateral relationship with ASEAN has gained further attention. ASEAN is one of the important trading partners for India over the past few years. There exists an immense potential to transform India-ASEAN bilateral relationship into a sound economic partnership in the form of a robust trade bloc. Inspite of existence of such potential trade and investment oppourtunies between India and ASEAN, the fact that India has a trade deficit with the ASEAN over the past few years2 needs immediate attention. Against this background, it becomes even more important as well as interesting to examine the trade complementarities between ASEAN and India so that efforts could be made to realize the full trade potential between these two. This paper has twofold objective: Firstly, it examines the 1 As per study by PHD Research Bureau, PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry. https://www.phdcci.in/wp- content/uploads/2019/11/Indias-Trade-and-Investment-Opportunities-with-ASEAN-economies.pdf , Accessed on 3th April,2020. 2 India’s trade deficit with ASEAN has increased from 9.86 percent in 2012-2013 to 21.85 percent in 2018-2019. https://commerce.gov.in/InnerContent.aspx?Id=74 ,Accessed on 4th April,2020. structure of comparative advantage in India and nine3 ASEAN economies over the period 2009-2018. Secondly, it does a comparative evaluation of the similarities in the pattern of revealed comparative advantage for these ten economies. The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 presents a selective review of literature and section 3 talks about the methodology used in the paper. Section 4 discusses the RCA analysis for India and ASEAN economies. Finally, the last section concludes. 2. Selective Review of Literature There have been number of studies in the literature that have employed index of revealed comparative advantage to examine the comparative advantage for various economies. This section presents a select review of such studies in the literature. Balassa (1977) analysed the pattern of comparative advantage for industrial countries for the period 1953-1971. They found the evidence for existence of an association between the size and diversification of exports. Further, their findings suggest that first the export diversification increases with increase in technological development and then decrease with further increase in technological development. Richardson and Zhang (1999) used the Balassa RCA index to examine and interpret comparative advantage in US across time, trading partners and regions at different level of commodity classifications. They found these patterns of comparative advantage for US to be different across different parts of the world. Some of the reasons which they found for these differences are geographical proximity of the trading partners and influence of per-capita income (specially in case of manufacturers). Ferto & Hubbard (2002) examines the competitiveness of Hungarian agriculture in relation to the EU for the period 1992 to 1998 using indices of Revealed comparative advantage. Their findings suggest that Hungary has revealed comparative advantages for eleven of the 22 aggregated product groups: live animals; meat; cereals; vegetables and fruit; sugar; beverages; oilseeds; cork and wood; and animal and vegetable materials, oils and fats. Further, it also suggests that Hungary’s markets are unlikely to become less distorted with membership of the EU, at least in the medium term. Batra & Khan (2005) performed a systematic comparative evaluation of the similarities of the pattern of revealed comparative advantage for India and China for the years 2000 and 2003. They calculated RCA for all the ninety-seven chapters of the Harmonized System (HS - 1996) classification as well as at the more disaggregated six-digit level for both the countries using their exports data. Their analysis suggests that sectors that rank among the top ten according to the value of the index of RCA are not necessarily able to retain their position when ranked according to comparative advantage at the more disaggregated 6-digit level. Further, their findings also suggest that both the countries enjoy comparative advantage in Manufactured goods chiefly classified by material. Akhtar et al (2008) analysed the performance of footwear industry of Pakistan at two-digit as well as four-digit level and compared it with that of China and India. The study period is from 1996 to 2006.Their findings suggest that there has been shift in the comparative 3 Our study has considered nine economies and not considered Philippines due to unavailability of data for the period considered in the study. advantage in Pakistan from disadvantage to comparative advantage over the study period. Their findings also suggest that India and China have comparative advantage in the foot-wear industry since 1990 but it is decreasing since 2001. Startiene & Remeikiene(2014) examined the competitiveness of the Lithuanian industrial products in global markets using Revealed Comparative Advantage index and Revealed symmetric comparative advantage index during the period of 2007–2011. Their findings from the RCA and RSCA values indicates that the Lithuanian food, chemicals, wood and textile manufactures captures the strongest competitive positions in global markets. Laosutsan et al (2017) explored the economic impacts of trade liberalization and improved connectivity on Thailand exports of 23 vegetable product groups to the ASEAN member states (AMSs) using the Revealed