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Transocean Report

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Transocean Report Dichotomy Capital LLC Contrarian and Research Driven Transocean LTD (RIG) $28.78 October 2014 Transocean is the owner of older rigs heading into a long downturn. As utilization across the ultra- deepwater space drops, Transocean will be forced to lock-in day rates well below current rates or idle rigs. Transocean’s over-leveraged balance sheet will not help the company weather the storm. Ticker: RIG Current Price: $28.78 Action: Short Market Cap (M) $10,990 Expected Timeframe: 1-2 years Enterprise Value(M): $21,440 Asset Class: Common Equity Target Price: $15.00 Target Allocation: 0.75-1.5% Benchmark: S&P 500 Catalysts: Continued downturn in rig rates, dividend cut, dilution Investment Overview Transocean shares have declined more than 35% in 2014. This decline has been caused by a glut of newbuild ships expected to be delivered in 2014, announcements of reduced capital spending by many major oil companies, and lower oil prices. This is not surprising and many of these variables are simply a fact of highly cyclical companies. The belief that this is the bottom has brought in many investors who proclaim the company is cheap on numerous metrics. These beliefs are myopic and fail to really comprehend industry dynamics. Transocean, a large offshore driller, is directly in the center of these issues. Transocean will suffer from both equipment obsolescence and the aforementioned industry issues. Even with the current slide in share price, there is more downside ahead. Transocean’s leveraged balance sheet will exacerbate any further deterioration in day rates. If the current industry dynamics continue, Transocean will be forced into difficult decisions including stacking rigs or accepting contracts materially below today’s rates. Oil companies are becoming more stringent and can require the best technology for new tenders. This bifurcation will hurt Transocean, and I believe that more than 50% downside exists in shares today. As investors wake up and realize the company has a history of poor capital allocation that barely earns more than its cost of capital, shares will re-rate to a more appropriate valuation. Asset write downs will come sooner, rather than later, and this will force current value investors in Transocean to reevaluate just how robust these assets are. Finally, investors will slowly begin to realize that the large dividend currently being offered is unlikely to remain. Management has cut the dividend in the past and will likely do the same now. Disclaimer: This research report expresses our opinions. Any investment involves substantial risks, including the complete loss of capital. Any forecasts or estimates are for illustrative purpose only. Use of Dichotomy Capital LLC's research is at your own risk and proper due diligence should be done prior to making any investment decision. This is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Dichotomy Capital LLC is not registered as an investment advisor. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice and Dichotomy Capital LLC does not undertake to update or supplement this report or any of the information contained herein. All the information presented is presented "as is," without warranty of any kind. Dichotomy Capital LLC makes no representation, express or implied, as to the accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of any such information or with regard to the results to be obtained from its use. 1 Dichotomy Capital LLC [email protected] Scarsdale, NY Downloaded from www.hvst.com by IP address 192.168.160.10 on 10/01/2021 Dichotomy Capital LLC Contrarian and Research Driven Transocean Overview Transocean is the owner of 79 oil rigs split among ultra-deepwater, deepwater, harsh environment floaters, midwater floaters, and high-specification jackups (Appendix 1). In the Q4 2013 conference call management iterated that the long-term goal is to have a fleet comprised of 50% ultra-deepwater rigs, 40% high-spec jackups and 10% harsh environment rigs. This fleet composition goal is intended to help them weather the current demand stagnation that management predicted would end in 2016. The proposed fleet transformation will be accomplished via some combination of asset sales, spin-offs, and newbuilds. Regarding the latter, Transocean has five ultra-deepwater rigs contracted to start between Q1 2016 and Q2 2017. There are another two ultra-deepwater rigs that do not have contracts, and five high-specification jackups slated for delivery as well. As these newbuilds are delivered, Transocean will still need to bring down its exposure to deepwater and lower-spec units. To do this management has formed Caledonia Offshore Drilling, a United Kingdom North Sea focused drilling entity. The current plan entails separating these assets from Transocean in Q4 2014, a topic that will be discussed later in this report. Following that separation, Transocean will focus on ultra-deepwater drilling; an area management believes displays strong long-term fundamentals. Ultra-Deepwater Market The ultra-deepwater oil exploration area has been the darling of the market for several years following the discovery of oil off of Brazil’s coast and renewed interest in other parts of the world. Day rates fell in 2010, following the Macondo disaster, and have risen since. Across the world there are currently 85 drillship floaters working at depths greater than 4000’, which collectively average $524,000 per day. The rise in rates caused a building frenzy. Under construction there are 61 drillships capable of drilling at least 5,000 feet deep, and there are 32 drillships being built that can drill at a rated water depth of 12,000 ft. As of October 2014, 89 drillships are being utilized worldwide (80.9% current utilization rate). The chart below shows construction activity by design depth. Chart 1. Rigs Under Construction. Source: Rigzone Rigs Under Construction or Available by Depth 80 72 60 40 17 20 14 14 11 9 0 1,000-5,000 ft 5,000-7,500 ft >7,500 ft Under Construction Ready Stacked 2 Dichotomy Capital LLC [email protected] Scarsdale, NY Downloaded from www.hvst.com by IP address 192.168.160.10 on 10/01/2021 Dichotomy Capital LLC Contrarian and Research Driven Unsurprisingly, rates have come under pressure. Most analysts seem to believe this rate depression is temporary and will likely reverse itself in 2015, or 2016 at the latest. I do not believe that to be the case. I believe the increase in onshore oil production (shale gas/oil) and the low returns from offshore production has caused a shift in production spend that will last longer than analysts believe. When this is coupled with the onslaught of newbuilds, rate compression will continue for an extended period. One of the best examples of poor returns can be seen in the chart below, it doesn’t take a mathematician to realize spending at 14% and earning 1.8% is unsustainable. Graphic 1. Oil Spend and Production 2000-2013 Source: SBM Offshore Barclays Presentation 2013 Unless production magically ramps up, it seems fair to expect E&P executives to act economically rational and pullback on investment in areas that are the least profitable. Many majors are limiting their upstream capital expenditures to increase free cash flow (see Chevron and Exxon Mobile as examples). Deepwater is now considered the marginal barrel by some players: “In our view, deepwater barrel is the marginal barrel today. And until commodity price or economics improve based on rig rates, it will likely continue to be the marginal barrel for the next year or so.” -Mark McCollum, CFO of Halliburton, Barclays Energy Power Conference 9/2/2014. Further complicating this shift is the requirement that newer rigs be built with much better specifications and safety equipment. This bifurcation is happening everywhere in offshore drilling. Higher-spec rigs experience reduced downtime and better operational efficiencies. In the case of drillships, higher-spec rigs can be safer rigs. Outfitting a drillship with dual Blow-Out Preventers (BOP) can save more than $30 million per year in spread costs and reduce downtime by several days. With an 3 Dichotomy Capital LLC [email protected] Scarsdale, NY Downloaded from www.hvst.com by IP address 192.168.160.10 on 10/01/2021 Dichotomy Capital LLC Contrarian and Research Driven increase in savings and improved safety, dual BOP rigs are expected to become the norm within the industry. Unfortunately for older ships, retrofitting is usually not an option. Oil companies want the best, and with a glut of newbuilds entering the market, they can demand the best. This is not good for companies with older rigs, and in this case, rigs that are only a few years old. While there are a number of newbuilds on the way, they are finding work because they are superior to currently operating drillships. The graphic below shows uncontracted newbuilds at the end of 2013, many of which have found contracted work since. Graphic 2. Uncontracted Newbuild Drillships 2014. Source: Credit Suisse 12/18/2013 Transocean has a fleet of 76 rigs (excluding jackups) already built or under construction. Of those, 20 are considered 6th generation or 7th generation rigs, higher spec rigs that are the most desirable by operators today. Seven of these rigs are still under construction and years away from production. This puts Transocean’s remaining fleet in a difficult position: how do they renew rates at high day rates if a number of newbuilds are coming on the market over the next few years? In short, I don’t believe it is possible and I believe that Transocean rigs will continue to experience rate compression. And there are plenty of rigs that could experience rate compression.
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