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D E E P W a T O FFSHORE DRILLING DEEPWATER Out in this deep exploration frontier, the risks are big – but the rewards could be bigger Anadarko renewed its contract for Transocean’s Discoverer Spirit, a dual-activity, 10,000-ft drillship, in November at $520,000/day for three years. Transocean’s dual- activity system has provided operators enhanced value and may become “a de facto standard in worldwide deepwater drilling,” said Transocean senior vice president North & South America Rob Saltiel. 20 May/June 2008 DRILLIN G CONTRACTOR O FFSHORE DRILLING GULF OF MEXICO a high-rolling paradise By Linda Hsieh, assistant managing editor THESE DAYS, you have to look much further out in the Gulf of Mexico – past the slowly thinning jackups on the shelf – to see the region’s brightest prospects. It’s no secret that deepwater is seen as the future of the Gulf of Mexico. Significant discoveries in the last couple of years have fur- ther delineated the Lower Tertiary trend and given opera- tors much to thrill over. And with crude oil prices breaking the $100 mark and showing no signs of backing down, deepwater GOM has fully grown into a “must-get” market. Just look at the March 2008 Gulf of Mexico lease sales, which roped in a record-setting $3.7 billion in high bids. Roughly a third of the tracts were located in 5,249 ft (1,600 m) of water or deeper, according to the US Minerals Management Service. Or look at the renewal contract that Transocean announced later the same month for its ultra-deepwater semisubmersible Deepwater Nautilus. Shell has signed the rig for either three years at $535,000/day or four years at $520,000/day. “The rate and sizes of discoveries in deepwater Gulf of Mexico has been very interesting to the operators, with the Lower Tertiary play bringing in a whole new opportu- nity to find and develop large reserves,” said Rob Saltiel, Transocean senior vice president North & South America. “While this involves deep and somewhat difficult drill- ing, the sizes of the reserves are making it worthwhile for operators.” Specific to the GOM, he added, a stable licensing/royalty regime and favorable fiscal terms add to the region’s investment appeal to clients. So, yes, deepwater Gulf of Mexico has proven its potential and optimism is running high. But challenges abound too, associated with costs, personnel, technology and more. DRILLIN G CONTRACTOR May/June 2008 21 O FFSHORE DRILLING the same time, their potential revenues are increasing to compensate for that. I think that as long as the price of the commodity stays strong, dayrates will continue to stay strong.” It’s anybody’s guess where rates may eventually top out before they start to dampen rig demand, but the current consensus – at least among drilling con- tractors in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico – appears to be that we’re not there yet. Jeff Chastain, Pride International vice president – investor relations, pointed out that for newbuilds, one fact will clearly hold true: “As long as the cost to construct rigs continues to increase, so will the dayrates to support those investment decisions.” Pride is building three 12,000-ft water depth drillships, for delivery in 2010-2011. Con struction costs per unit range from approximately $680 million to $730 million. MARKET FRUSTRATIONS In any case, demand for deepwater float- ers will certainly continue to outstrip supply in the near-term. And it is this rig shortage — not climbing dayrates — that is really creating some frustration in the marketplace, Mr Saltiel said. “The worst thing for an operator is not a high Rates for deepwater floaters appear to be climbing again in recent months. Trans- dayrate but inability to develop existing ocean’s Deepwater Nautilus contract with Shell was renewed in March for either three reserves or to complete an exploration years at $535,000/day or four years at $520,000/day. and development program.” There’s no excess capacity in the short DAYRATES MOVING AGAIN First, Transocean’s Discoverer Spirit, term, and most believe that newbuild a dual-activity, 10,000-ft drillship, was Undeniably, dayrates for deepwater deliveries are unlikely to reverse that renewed in November 2007 at $520,000/ (3,000 ft or greater) and ultra-deepwa- trend. Fifty out of 73 – that’s nearly 70% day for three years. Then in February ter (7,500 ft or greater) floaters have – of deepwater newbuilds already have 2008, the Deepwater Millennium, a increased significantly over the past contracts in place, according to ODS- 10,000-ft drillship that does not have the two to three years. According to ODS- Petrodata . And negotiations are actively dual-activity system, was renewed at a Petrodata, as of late March 2008, fix- under way for the remaining units. higher rate — $535,000/day — for three tures for newbuild ultra-deepwater float- years. A month later, the Deepwater Two of the three ultra-deepwater drill- ers averaged in the high $430s. And that Nautilus was renewed in the $535,000 to ships that Pride is building already have number may not be fully representative $520,000 range for three or four years. 5-year contracts (BP and Petrobras), because not all dayrates for contracted Compared with the first two rigs, which and the company is “in active discus- rigs are known yet, pointed out Tom are dynamically positioned and can sions with a client right now” for the Kellock, head of consulting & research drill in water depths up to 10,000 ft, the third unit, Mr Chastain said. Pride cur- – Houston. Deepwater Nautilus is a moored unit rently has nine rigs that can operate in In fact, dayrates do appear to be inching capable of drilling in deepwater with a 3,000-ft water depth or greater, working upwards again in recent months, said pre-set mooring system . in Angola, Egypt and Brazil. When the Larry Dickerson, president and chief BP-contracted newbuild is delivered “We’re seeing rates move up even as we operating officer for Diamond Offshore. in 2010, the rig will provide Pride “an renew the lower-spec rigs,” noted Mr “The industry spent about a year with operating presence in the strategically Saltiel. When asked about operators’ rates stabilized between $480,000 and significant deepwater Gulf of Mexico cost concerns, he made no pretense that $500,000. Now we’re seeing a number of market sector, where new and effective dayrates aren’t high or increasing opera- signings north of $500,000. Clearly, rates technologies are expanding the offshore tors’ drilling and completions costs. are beginning to move.” frontier and creating numerous long- But he emphasized that high dayrates term drilling opportunities,” said Pride Mr Saltiel agreed that rates are climbing “are just moving in lock-step with the president and CEO Louis A Raspino in again and pointed to three recent fix- price of crude oil. It does cost more for announcing the contract in early 2008. tures in the Gulf of Mexico as indicators. operators to explore and develop, but at 24 May/June 2008 DRILLIN G CONTRACTOR O FFSHORE DRILLING Pride is planning to enter the deepwater Gulf of Mexico market with a newbuild drillship scheduled for delivery in 2010. The com- pany’s Pride Angola drillship is currently working offshore Angola for TOTAL. Another drilling contractor player join- commitment given to us by Devon in THE PRICE OF CRUDE ing the deepwater Gulf of Mexico is 2006, coupled with the fact that we’ve So rig demand looks good as far as the Seadrill. The Norway-based company been pretty much on schedule and on industry can see for now, with Diamond has a total of 10 ultra-deepwater new- budget with our new rig deliveries, I Offshore’s Mr Dickerson adding that he builds still in the works, including two think operators are rapidly putting more has no concerns yet about the industry just delivered in late March 2008. One of confidence in us.” overbuilding deepwater units. “I sup- these is the West Sirius, a 10,000-ft semi- pose there will be enough supply to submersible that is mobilizing to the Gulf All eight of Seadrill’s remaining deep- satisfy demand at some point, but we of Mexico to work for Devon Energy water newbuilds scheduled for delivery seem to be fairly far away from that under a four-year contract. It marks in 2008 are already contracted. The right now.” Seadrill’s first deepwater rig in the GOM. most recent announcement came in mid-April, with Petrobras signing the Deepwater rig utilization will stay Tim Juran, Seadrill senior vice presi- West Eminence and West Taurus semi- around 100% at least through 2010-2011, dent Americas, said that although the submersibles for six years each (as well predicted Mr Saltiel. company is new to the GOM, its biggest as the West Orion semi, which won’t be challenge is no different from drilling delivered until Q2 2010). But what about the long term, post-2011? contractors established in the region: That’s harder to say , although optimism Although there were no firm commit- finding skilled personnel. prevails among deepwater drilling con- ments yet, Mr Juran noted that there tractors. They point to two factors that The West Sirius, he emphasized, is remains a strong possibility of additional must be closely watched: the price of already fully staffed, and attracting more Seadrill rigs being mobilized to the deep- crude oil and exploration successes. talent has not been too difficult. “Seadrill water Gulf of Mexico due to “ continued is seen to be a new player with new interest by operators.” There is a lot uncertainty around what equipment and with a very strong growth the oil price will do in the coming years Even if not this year, certainly in the agenda, and a lot of people in the indus- – stay around $100? Drop below $60? foreseeable future, he strongly expects try are finding that to be very interesting Shoot to $200 a barrel? It’s a guessing to put additional rigs in the GOM.
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