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Adobe Photoshop Editorial Kampf ohne Grenzen An Warnungen hat es nicht gefehlt: Der syrische Bürgerkrieg, der in nunmehr über drei Jahren fast 200 000 Menschenleben gekostet hat, würde auf Dauer nicht auf syrisches Territorium beschränkt bleiben. Im Juni dieses Jahres über- rannte die dschihadistische Miliz „Islamischer Staat“ (IS) die irakische Millio- nenstadt Mossul, rückte bedrohlich nahe an Iraks Hauptstadt Bagdad im Süden und die vergleichsweise stabilen autonomen Kurdengebiete im Norden vor, zwang Hunderttausende zur Flucht und ermordet bestialisch alle, die sich ihr in den Weg stellen oder die sie als „Ungläubige“ brandmarkt – wie die islami- sche Sekte der Jesiden. Die Kämpfe im Nahen Osten haben Grenzen und noch aus der Kolonialzeit stammende Ordnungen hinfällig werden lassen. Staaten zerfallen, so Rainer Hermann in dieser Ausgabe, weil sie im Grunde nie mehr waren als Selbst- bedienungsläden für kleine Eliten. Neue Ordnungen sind noch nicht zu sehen und nicht zuletzt deshalb bleiben die Kämpfe des Nahen Ostens auch nicht auf die Region beschränkt. Nach einer weiteren, mit aller Härte geführten Ausein- andersetzung zwischen Israel und der islamistischen Hamas in Gaza fanden in europäischen Städten Solidaritätskundgebungen statt, bei denen auch antisemi- tische Parolen gebrüllt wurden. Und es ist alles andere als Angstmacherei, wenn man annimmt, dass Dschihadisten – zu denen auch junge Europäer sto- ßen – ihren Krieg gegen den Westen auch im Westen führen wollen. Mit dem Vordringen der IS-Kämpfer gewinnt auch die Debatte über „Mehr Verantwortung“ Deutschlands an Dringlichkeit. Zum ersten Mal wird er- wogen, Waffen auch in Kriegsgebiete zu liefern. Dabei bleibt zu bedenken: Verantwortung bedeutet oft Abwägung zwischen schlechten (Waffenlieferun- gen) und noch schlechteren Optionen (ein von einer genozidalen Miliz geführ- ter Terrorstaat mit Zugriff auf Ölressourcen). Und wer mehr Verantwortung übernimmt, muss wissen, wer die wichtigsten Partner auch außerhalb der EU sind. Für die Deutschen, das ergab unsere IP-Forsa-Umfrage, ist das klar: Allen Diskussionen über Bespitzelungen zum Trotz sind das immer noch die USA. DR. SYLKE TEMPEL Chefredakteurin IP • September / Oktober 2014 1 Inhalt 4 IP-Forsa-Frage: Deutschlands Partner SCHWERPUNKT Kampf ohne Grenzen 8 Rainer Hermann Nach dem Staatszerfall Bild nur in Noch zeichnet sich keine neue Printausgabe arabische Ordnung ab 16 Akteure im Überblick verfügbar Mächte und Milizen Guido Steinberg (IS), Hassan Mneimneh (Irak, Katar), Günther Seufert (Kurden, Türkei), Meir Javedanfar (Hisbollah, Iran), Henner Fürtig (Saudi-Arabien), 8 Auseinanderfallen Andreas Jacobs (Ägypten) Die arabische Welt befindet 40 Interview mit Gershon Baskin sich in der tiefsten Krise seit dem Mongolensturm „Abbas ist ein Partner, die Hamas nicht“ Warum Frieden in Nahost möglich ist 45 Florence Gaub Prinzipienfragen Wie in der arabischen Welt internationale Bild nur in Politik gemacht wird Deutschlands Partner Printausgabe 50 Jochen Bittner Unverzichtbar, trotz allem verfügbar Warum das Bündnis mit Amerika für uns strategisch alternativlos ist 56 Jacob Heilbrunn Her mit der Charmeoffensive! Deutschland und die USA verbindet weit 50 Zusammenhalten mehr als sie trennt Wie die transatlantische Partnerschaft neu belebt 60 Annegret Bendiek werden könnte Abschied von der Juniorpartnerschaft Ohne seine europäischen Partner wird Fotos Titel: © Stringer / REUTERS Titel: Fotos 3: EdStock/iStockphoto Seite 2: © Stringer/Reuters/Corbis,picture alliance/dpa; Seite Inhalt: Fotos Berlin in Washington kaum Gehör finden 2 IP • September / Oktober 2014 Bild nur in Printausgabe verfügbar 118 Merkels Meinung Was Joachim Gauck, Frank-Walter Steinmeier und Ursula von der Leyen in der Außen-, Europa- und Sicherheits- politik für richtig halten, wissen wir spätestens seit der Münchner Sicher- heitskonferenz. Doch was sagt eigentlich die Kanzlerin dazu? Das ist weniger schwer zu ermitteln als man zunächst glauben mag Gegen den Strich 68 Christoph von Marschall Obamas Außenpolitik Die Bilanz des US-Präsidenten ist besser als viele behaupten Geheimdienste 74 Rhodri Jeffreys-Jones Eine Frage der Etikette Die Spionage gegen Deutschland zeugt von amerikanischer Unreife Sicherheitspolitik 107 Philipp Rotmann Argentinien Stabile Fragilität 78 Ingo Malcher Für mehr Realismus in der internationalen Unter Geiern Konfliktbearbeitung Der Fall Argentinien zeigt: Die Welt braucht ein Insolvenzrecht für Staaten 114 Karl-Heinz Kamp Jenseits der Ukraine-Krise Entwicklungsbanken Fünf aktuelle Fragen, auf die die NATO 88 Rolf J. Langhammer Antworten finden muss Ein klares Signal ... aber auch nicht viel mehr: Der BRICS- Essay Bank fehlt noch ein Geschäftsmodell 118 Andreas Rinke Keine Sphinx an der Spree China Was und wie die Bundeskanzlerin außen- 92 Jonathan Fenby und europapolitisch denkt Maschinist der Macht Xi Jinping häuft immer mehr Einfluss an – 128 Brief aus … Kabul | Ronja v. Wurmb-Seibel um die Herrschaft der KP zu retten Was man aushält Umweltpolitik 130 Internationale Presse | Andreas Stein 97 Sven Titz Burgfrieden in der Ukraine Kleine Schritte statt großer Wurf Wie sich der Klimaschutz auch ohne 134 Buchkritik | Lenz Jacobsen, Andreas Eckert globales Abkommen vorantreiben lässt Jäger und Sammler Ressourcen 102 Marco Overhaus und Kirsten Westphal 144 Schlusspunkt | Alan Posener Kein Rückzug in Sicht Raketen vom Schwarzmarkt Trotz Schieferrevolution bleiben die USA am Persischen Golf 142 Impressum IP • September / Oktober 2014 3 IP-Forsa-Frage Deutschlands Partner IP|09 /10|14 Die USA sind alles in allem der zurzeit wichtigste politische Partner Deutschlands außerhalb Europas Nein 26 % Ja 68 % Unterschiedliche Bewertungen nach Altersgruppen 19 % 26 % 27 % 37 % 57 % 68 % 68 % 75 % 18 – 29-Jährige 30 – 44-Jährige 45 – 59-Jährige 60 Jahre und älter … und nach Parteienpräferenz 18 % 26 % 38 % 30 % 76 % 73 % 58 % 61 % CDU / CSU SPD Linke Grüne Datenbasis: 1004 Befragte in Deutschland. Erhebungszeitraum: 12.–14. August 2014. An 100 % fehlende Angaben: „weiß nicht“. Statistische Fehlertoleranz: + / – 3 Prozentpunkte. Quelle: Forsa. 4 IP • September / Oktober 2014 IP-Forsa-Frage Deutschlands Partner IP|09 /10|14 Wenn nicht die USA: Welches Land ist zurzeit der wichtigste politische Partner Deutschlands? China 39 % Russland 27 % Indien 6 % keines davon 28 % Allen Problemen zum Trotz: Es steht nach wie vor gut um die transatlantische Partnerschaft. Das zeigen die Ergebnisse der IP-Forsa-Frage. Mehr als zwei Drittel der befragten Bundesbürger (68 Prozent) meinen, dass die USA der zurzeit wichtigste Partner Deutschlands außerhalb Europas sind, nur ein gutes Viertel (26 Prozent) ist nicht dieser Ansicht. In dieser Frage sind sich Ost- und Westdeutsche weitgehend einig (64 Prozent bzw. 68 Prozent für „Ja“). Unterschiede zeigen sich jedoch in den Alterskohorten: Besonders zahlreich sind die Befürworter der transatlantischen Partnerschaft unter den über 60-Jährigen (75 Prozent) und den Anhängern von CDU und CSU (76 Prozent), während die unter 30-Jährigen mit 57 Prozent und die Anhänger der Links- partei hier, allerdings nur vergleichsweise knapp, mit 58 Prozent unter dem Durchschnitt liegen. Von den Befragten, die die USA nicht für den wichtigsten Partner Deutsch- lands außerhalb Europas halten, geben 39 Prozent ihre Präferenz für China, 27 Prozent für Russ land und nur 6 Prozent für Indien. Die jüngste Alters gruppe der 18- bis 29-Jährigen ist in der Frage nach dem wichtigsten Partner am brei- testen aufgestellt; mit 34 Prozent steht auch für sie China an der Spitze (sonst 39 Prozent), für Russland können sich nur 29 Prozent entscheiden, 18 Prozent, und damit weit über dem Durchschnitt der zwischen 1 und 4 Prozent rangie- renden älteren Altersgruppen, nennen auch Indien als wichtigsten Partner. Insgesamt wollten sich 28 Prozent für keines dieser Länder entscheiden. IP • September / Oktober 2014 5 © picture alliance/dpa Juli / August 2014 Nr. 4 69. Jahr € 14,90 Österr. € 17,00 2728 CHINACONTACT Leserreise Spannende Auswärtstaktik Chinareise mit Neue Ideen für Deutschlands Außenpolitik Businessprogramm ab € 2.230,– In ihrer jüngsten Ausgabe nahm INTERNATIONALE Limitierte Teilnehmerzahl! POLITIK den von Außenminister Frank-Walter Stein- meier angestoßenen „Review 2014“-Prozess auf, in Auswärtstaktik dessen Verlauf die Grundlagen und Ziele deutscher China besser verstehen Außenpolitik überdacht werden sollen. Dies führen Ein Blick hinter die Kulissen des chinesischen Wirtschaftswunders wir in dieser und in folgenden Ausgaben fort – mit Reisen Sie nach Chengdu und Chongqing und entdecken Sie die Provinz Sichuan vom 31.10.2014 – 8.11.2014 Anmeldeschluss: 31.7.2014 einem Blick auf Deutschlands Beziehungen zu ➜ weitere Infos und Anmeldung: www.owc.de/leserreise OWC-Verlag für Außenwirtschaft GmbH Wahlen Gaza Sicherheit Frau Marlene Bartl • [email protected] Berliner Allee 67, D-40212 Düsseldorf Die Ukrainer stehen für Kontrolle, Armut, ewiger Vorschläge von Xenia Tel. +49 211 550426-16 westliche Werte ein, EU- Widerstand – so regiert Dormandy und Kathleen seinen wichtigsten Partnern in der Welt. Den Fax: +49 211 550426-55 4 Bürger nicht. Ein Essay die Hamas. Eine Reportage McInnis für eine NATO 2014 von Richard Herzinger von Silke Mertins der Zukunft Anfang machen die USA. 1 IP • September/Oktober 2014 Deutschlands Partner Im Kalten Krieg war die transatlantische Partnerschaft gelebte Realität, heute sind die deutsch- amerikanischen Beziehungen so belastet wie lange nicht: Zeit, sich auf die Grundlagen des weiter unverzichtbaren Verhältnisses zu besinnen und die
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