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You're Out! Explaining Non-Criminal Diplomatic Expulsion

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You're Out! Explaining Non-Criminal Diplomatic Expulsion UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones May 2018 You're Out! Explaining Non-Criminal Diplomatic Expulsion Anthony Jordan Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalscholarship.unlv.edu/thesesdissertations Part of the International Relations Commons Repository Citation Jordan, Anthony, "You're Out! Explaining Non-Criminal Diplomatic Expulsion" (2018). UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones. 3270. http://dx.doi.org/10.34917/13568512 This Dissertation is protected by copyright and/or related rights. It has been brought to you by Digital Scholarship@UNLV with permission from the rights-holder(s). You are free to use this Dissertation in any way that is permitted by the copyright and related rights legislation that applies to your use. For other uses you need to obtain permission from the rights-holder(s) directly, unless additional rights are indicated by a Creative Commons license in the record and/or on the work itself. This Dissertation has been accepted for inclusion in UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones by an authorized administrator of Digital Scholarship@UNLV. For more information, please contact [email protected]. YOU’RE OUT! EXPLAINING NON-CRIMINAL DIPLOMATIC EXPULSION By Anthony G. Jordan Bachelor of Arts – Political Science University of Southern Mississippi 2006 Master of Arts – Political Science University of Southern Mississippi 2013 A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Doctor of Philosophy – Political Science Department of Political Science College of Liberal Arts The Graduate College University of Nevada, Las Vegas May 2018 Copyright 2018 Anthony G. Jordan All Rights Reserved Dissertation Approval The Graduate College The University of Nevada, Las Vegas January 16, 2018 This dissertation prepared by Anthony G. Jordan entitled You’re Out! Explaining Non-Criminal Diplomatic Expulsion is approved in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy – Political Science Department of Political Science John Tuman, Ph.D. Kathryn Hausbeck Korgan, Ph.D. Examination Committee Chair Graduate College Interim Dean Jonathan Strand, Ph.D. Examination Committee Member Michele Kuenzi, Ph.D. Examination Committee Member Robert Futrell, Ph.D. Graduate College Faculty Representative ii Abstract The practice of diplomatic expulsion, as well as expulsion of other foreign personnel by an executive, has received little attention in the field of International Relations or in Political Science more broadly. If expulsion were analyzed under the broader category of diplomatic relations, then studying the variation in expulsions could improve our understanding of international relations. It would be understood as one of the many tools executives use in negotiation between states. Executives, however, appeared to treat expulsion specially. Although no international convention requires executives to notify the public of the expulsion of a diplomat, ambassador or other personnel, it has been observed that executives do make highly publicized announcements in some cases, which suggests that expulsions have domestic value to some executives. This project examines expulsions in terms of their political value to executives with special attention paid to executives from New Left regimes in Latin America and their relationship with the United States. The dissertation argues that expulsions increase in value to states on the weaker end of a power disparity. The stronger state could prefer to conduct diplomacy with military and/or economic threats, but the weaker state does not enjoy such options. The one option that is not limited by such a power disparity is expulsion. Executives of weaker countries may be quick to expel because reciprocation by the stronger state will do little harm to the weaker state. The radical, populist left executives in the expelling states need such a low cost and low risk move to actionize the anti-United States rhetoric they utilized as they were running for office. iii Acknowledgements I would like to acknowledge the hard work of my committee: John Tuman (chair), Jonathan Strand, Michele Kuenzi, and Robert Futrell. Their efforts made this project possible. I want to give a special acknowledgement to John Tuman as his patience, tireless effort, open- mindedness to a new area of research, and expertise in Latin America helped me finish this project long before I thought I could. iv I dedicate this dissertation to my wife, Holly. Your support has gotten me through difficult times. May this be the catalyst of a better life for the both of us. v Table of Contents Abstract .......................................................................................................................................... iii Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................................ iv List of Tables ................................................................................................................................ vii Chapter 1: Introduction ................................................................................................................... 8 Chapter 2: Literature Review and Theory .................................................................................... 14 Chapter 3: Data and Methods ....................................................................................................... 48 Chapter 4: Statistical Analysis ...................................................................................................... 61 Chapter 5: Control Cases: Mexico and Colombia ........................................................................ 71 Chapter 6: Radical Populist Left Cases: Venezuela and Colombia ............................................ 107 Chapter 7: Conclusion................................................................................................................. 149 References ................................................................................................................................... 157 Curriculum Vitae ........................................................................................................................ 177 vi List of Tables Table 3.1. Descriptive Statistics.................................................................................................... 54 Table 3.2. Descriptive Statistics for Independent Variable and Dependent Variable .................. 55 Table 3.3. Variance and Mean of Expulsion Events ..................................................................... 56 Table 4.1. Model 1 ........................................................................................................................ 65 Table 4.2. Model 2 ........................................................................................................................ 66 Table 5.1. Expulsion Events and Executive Ideology in Control Cases from 1991-2016 .......... 105 Table 6.1. Expulsion Events and Executive Ideology in Experimental Cases from 1991-2016 147 vii Chapter 1: Introduction During the Cold War, diplomatic expulsion, much like wars, were proxy moves between the United States and the Soviet Union. Diplomats from the United States could be expelled from any country that was influenced by the Soviet Union. During this period, diplomatic expulsion could be understood through the lens of U.S.-Soviet relations, balancing, and counter-balancing. Even after the Cold War, American diplomats were more likely to be expelled from Soviet ally Cuba than from anywhere else in the world. Since the 1990s, however, a different pattern has emerged. In particular, expulsions of diplomats from the United States have been concentrated in Latin America. Further examination shows that these expulsions were concentrated in a small number of Latin American states (and in particular years), namely Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador, Cuba, and Nicaragua. With the lack of a global antagonist to the U.S., the explanation for this pattern must exist within the states themselves. The research question for this dissertation, then, is “What would explain the variation in non-criminal diplomatic expulsions in Latin America since the year 1990?” The practice of diplomatic expulsion, as well as expulsion of other foreign personnel by an executive, has received little attention in the field of International Relations or in Political Science more broadly. If expulsion were analyzed under the broader category of diplomatic relations, then studying the variation in expulsions could improve our understanding of international relations. It would be understood as one of the many tools executives use in negotiation between states. Executives, however, appeared to treat expulsion specially. Although no international convention requires executives to notify the public of the expulsion of a diplomat, ambassador or other personnel, it has been observed that executives do make highly 8 publicized announcements in some cases, which suggests that expulsions have domestic value to some executives. This project examines expulsions in terms of their political value to executives with special attention paid to executives from New Left regimes in Latin America and their relationship with the United States. The dissertation argues that expulsions increase in value to states on the weaker end of a power disparity. The stronger state could prefer to conduct
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