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Security Policy Review Security Trends, 2004–2019 Tamás Csikivarga

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Security Policy Review Security Trends, 2004–2019 Tamás Csikivarga Volume 12, Issue 4. | 2019 nation and security Security Policy Review Viktor Marsai Scramble for the Horn of Africa – Al-Shabaab vs. Islamic State Tamás Csiki Varga Explaining Hungarian Defence Spending Trends, 2004–2019 Alex Etl With the Image of Deterrence: Operation Atlantic Resolve nation and security · 2019 Issue 4. Impressum Contents Nemzet és Biztonság Tamás Csiki Varga – Viktor Marsai Nation and Security Security Policy Review Introduction to the Issue 2019/4 . 2 The peer-reviewed security policy Cyprian Aleksander Kozera – Błażej Popławski journal of the National University of Boko Haram, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, Public Service al-Shabaab – Similarities and Differences . 3 Nemzet és Biztonság (Nation Viktor Marsai and Security) is also published in Hungarian, 4 times a year Scramble for the Horn of Africa – Al-Shabaab vs . Islamic State . 14 Editor-in-Chief: Péter Tálas Nikolett Pénzváltó The EU–Turkey Visa Liberalisation Agreement: Editorial assistant: Béla Háda A Victim of Populist and Securitisation Practices? . 30 Editor: Antonio M. Morone Tamás Csiki Varga International Migration and Containment Policies: Lessons from Libya . 44 Editorial Board: Gergely Németh (Chairman), Luca Puddu István Balogh, Balázs Forgács, China’s Development Assistance in Sub-Saharan Tamás Csiki Varga, Béla Háda, Ferenc Gazdag, Ferenc Kaiser, Africa: Challenges and Opportunities . 59 Erzsébet N. Rózsa, Péter Siklósi, Tamás Csiki Varga András Rácz, Zoltán Szenes, Viktor Marsai, Antal Szöllősi Explaining Hungarian Defence Spending Trends, 2004–2019 . 72 Published by Ludovika University Press Non-Profit Ltd. Lukáš Dyčka The Development of the Czech Defence Policy in Responsible for publishing: Gergely Koltányi Managing Director 2017–2018 . 82 Technical editor: László Szerencsés Angéla Fehér Current Defence Policy and Modernisation Goals of the Croatian Armed Forces . 98 Proofreader: Zsuzsanna Gergely Alex Etl Editorial Office: With the Image of Deterrence: Operation Atlantic 9–11, Hungária körút, Resolve . 108 1101 Budapest, Hungary Authors . 118 E-mail: [email protected] Website: http://nemzetesbiztonsag.hu Printed by Ludovika University Press Non-Profit Ltd. HU ISSN 1789-5286 DOI: 10.32576/nb.2019.4.1 Nation and Security 2019. Issue 4. | 2. Tamás Csiki Varga – Viktor Marsai Introduction to the Issue 2019/4 The National University of Public Service has been granted multi-annual research funds from the European Union through the government of Hungary for the purposes of devel- oping good governance practices, adopting best practices in this field, and improving the training, education and work of those employed in the public sector. Within the project funding framework PADOP-2.1.2-CCHOP-15-2016-00001 “Public Service Development Establishing Good Governance” the Center for Strategic and Defense Studies realised an overarching research project “Strategic Analyses for Supporting Governmental Decision- making in the Field of Foreign and Security Policy”. The project was made up of eight pillars, each focusing on a key area of interest for Hungary. Three methodological pillars aimed at gaining access to best practices and lessons learnt in the fields of: 1. Strategic fore- sight; 2. Strategic guidance and planning; and 3. Analytical methodology, while five pillars were focusing on geographical regions, in order to improve our understanding of drivers, trends and processes that govern foreign and security policies in: 4. Central Europe; 5. the Balkans; 6. the Post-Soviet region; 7. Africa; and 8. the Far East. Scholarly work within the pillars were directed and coordinated by policy field coordinators affiliated with the Center for Strategic and Defense Studies. Research carried out within each pillar included analytical, methodological and comparative study volumes, policy papers, journal articles both in Hungarian and in English, as well as a series of expert workshops, seminars and conferences. This issue contains ten scholarly and analytical papers that have been drafted either as preliminary studies to the project focus areas or within the project. Among them, two areas are highlighted here: part of the papers deal with security-related issues in the MENA region, while others offer analyses on current Central European defence policy develop- ments. Cyprian Aleksander Kozera and Błażej Popławski compare the working of three extremist violent groups: Boko Haram, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb and al-Shabaab. Viktor Marsai analyses the rivalry of al-Shabaab and the Islamic State in the Horn of Africa. Nikolett Pénzváltó examines how securitisation and populist tactics by the Turkish Government might have affected the EU–Turkey visa liberalisation agreement, preventing the successful conclusion of negotiations. Antonio Morone summarises some lessons learnt from Libya regarding the containment policies of the European Union and Italy to tackle irregular migration from Sub-Saharan Africa. Luca Puddu argues that China’s development assistance in Sub-Saharan Africa is aimed at reproducing centre-periphery relations with China at the centre. Tamás Csiki Varga, Lukáš Dyčka and László Szerencsés offer respective analysis of Hungarian, Czech and Croatian defence policy developments, while Alex Etl measures the balance between reassurance and deterrence regarding the Operation Atlantic Resolve of the U.S. 2 Nation and Security 2019. Issue 4. | 3–13. DOI: 10.32576/nb.2019.4.2 Cyprian Aleksander Kozera – Błażej Popławski Boko Haram, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, al-Shabaab – Similarities and Differences An Analysis of the Genesis, Evolution and Strategies of the Islamist Violent Extremist Groups in Africa1 The authors offer an analysis of the genesis, evolution, and strategies of three Islamist extremist groups in three parts of Africa: al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) in the borderland of Algeria and Mali; Boko Haram in the borderland of Nigeria, Chad, Niger and Cameroon; and al-Shabaab in Eastern Africa. Through examining the three comparative case studies they argue that the religious agenda of these groups plays the role of a façade only. The most important reasons of the spread of terrorism in all three regions are related to the political and economic conditions, feelings of relative deprivation, low level of trust in government authorities and the frustration of marginalised groups. Keywords: Boko Haram, al-Qaeda, al-Shabaab, Maghreb, terrorism, extremism, Africa Introduction Five years after the tragic events of 9/11, the retribution machinery of the so called “War on Terror” against the global Islamist insurgency was running at full speed. With ongoing military interventions in Afghanistan, Iraq and drone strikes or special forces operations in Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia, the invisible fronts of the conflict were being pushed far away from American and European soil. That time, on the fifth anniversary of the terrorist2 attacks on the Twin Towers and the Pentagon, Ayman az-Zawahiri, a senior member of al-Qaeda, officially recognised the Algerian Salafist Group for Preaching and CombatGroupe Salafiste pour la Prédication et le Combat, GSPC) as the al-Qaeda affiliate on the Sahara, declaring the birth of their “blessed union”.3 1 This work was created in commission of the National University of Public Service under the priority project PADOP- 2.1.2-CCHOP-15-2016-00001 entitled “Public Service Development Establishing Good Governance” in the Ludovika Research Group. 2 Throughout this article, due to the lack of compromise on the definition, terrorism will be understood as any wilful targeting of non-combatants with violence or the threat of violence for political purposes by a non-state actor. Con- sequently, those committing such deeds will be referred to as terrorists. (Davies, John: Understanding Terrorism in Africa. In: Davies, John [ed.]: Terrorism in Africa. The Evolving Front in the War on Terror. Lexington Books, Lanham, 2010, pp. 133–158.) 3 Pham, J. Peter: Foreign Influences and Shifting Horizons: The Ongoing Evolution of al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb. Orbis, Vol. 55, No. 2, 2011, p. 240. 3 Cyprian Aleksander Kozera – Błażej Popławski: Boko Haram, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, al-Shabaab Thus, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) – a terrorist organisation infamous for its numerous kidnappings for million-dollar bounties,4 filmed executions of Western nationals, and even an attempt to create an Islamist emirate in the Sahara – has been established. The creation of AQIM, or – to be more precise – the incorporation of the Algerian extremist group into the global network of al-Qaeda, although symbolic, did not mark the birth of the radical and violent Islamism on the African continent. Its roots, far too frequently, can be traced back to the Somali Jihad against Ethiopia in the 15th century, the Jihad of Usman dan Fodio (1804–1808), or to the spread of the Salafi movement (19th century). The spread of Salafism in the Maghreb Salafism as-Salafiya ( – the road of forefathers) is a fundamentalist5 ideology and movement that embraces a “pure” and exclusive form of Islam in all aspects of life, rejects modern “moral corruption”, oppose Western ideologies, and associates the West with decadency. The concept is known since at least the 14th century and it has its Saudi branch called Wahhabism since the 18th century. On the African continent, it gained ground in the 19th century Egypt in opposition to the conquest of Napoleon Bonaparte (1798), and the moral and civilizational decline that the French occupation
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