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Hydrological Response to Future Climate Change in the Agano River

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Hydrological Response to Future Climate Change in the Agano River Hydrological Research Letters, 4, 25–29 (2010) Published online in J-STAGE (www.jstage.jst.go.jp/browse/HRL). DOI: 10.3178/HRL.4.25 Hydrological response to future climate change in the Agano River basin, Japan Xieyao Ma1, Takao Yoshikane1, Masayuki Hara1, Yasutaka Wakazuki1, Hiroshi G Takahashi1,2 and Fujio Kimura1,3 1Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Kanagawa, Japan 2Department of Geography, Tokyo Metropolitan University, Tokyo, Japan 3Institute of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan Abstract: requires information on changes in river discharge determined from both observation and simulation. Hydro- To evaluate the impact of climate change on snowfall logical simulations of rivers generally use data obtained in Japan, a hydrological simulation was made in the Agano from ground-based meteorological stations. The distribution River basin by using a regional climate model’s output. A and density of meteorological stations affect the accuracy hindcast experiment was carried out for the two decades of such hydrological modeling, especially for large river from 1980 to 1999. The average correlation coefficient of basins. Japan has approximately 110 manned meteorological 0.79 for the monthly mean discharge in the winter season stations, which measure wind speed, precipitation amount, showed that the interannual variation of the river discharge air temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure, and other could be reproduced and that the method can be used for variables. Nevertheless, this density does not meet the climate change study. The future hydrological response to recommendations of the World Meteorological Organization global warming in the 2070s was investigated using a (WMO, 1994). In addition, because Japan is a mountainous pseudo-global-warming method. In comparison to data from country, most stations are located in valley bottoms or other the 1990s, the monthly mean discharge for the 2070s was flat areas. projected to increase by approximately 43% in January and In recent years, a downscaling method that links 55% in February, but to decrease by approximately 38% in atmospheric and hydrological models has been developed April and 32% in May. The flood peak in the hydrograph for hydrological simulations. Kite and Haberlandt (1999) was moved forward by approximately one month, changing tested hydrological simulations of the Mackenzie and upper from April in the 1990s to March in the 2070s. Furthermore, Columbia rivers and showed that the coupling of atmospheric the projection for the 10-year average snowfall amount was and hydrological models was useful in understanding the projected to be approximately 49.5% lower in the 2070s macro-scale hydrological cycle. Many other authors have than in the 1990s. also used the downscaling method to investigate changes in river hydrology (e.g. Wood et al., 2004). Fujihara et al. KEYWORDS hydrological simulation; regional climate (2006) examined the influence of global warming on the model; dynamical downscaling; climate water resources of the Tone River basin using the change; river discharge Table I. Mean decadal April discharge rates (m3/s) in the INTRODUCTION 1990s for the main rivers flowing into the Sea of Japan in the Hokuriku and Tohoku regions and the differences between 1990 and two earlier decades, given as percentages Climate change is having a conspicuous effect on Japan. of 1990s values. In particular, the Japan Meteorological Agency (2002) has Name of 2 reported that snowfall amounts have fallen sharply along Catchment (km ) 1990s Δ (1970s) Δ (1980s) river Japan’s eastern seaboard since the mid-1980s, resulting in a noticeable decrease in river discharge in this region in Kuzuryo*1 Nakatsuno (1,240) 121.1 33% 36% spring. Table I lists decadally averaged April discharge rates Tedori Nakajima (732) 142.1 15% 20% 2 (m3/s) for the main rivers entering the Sea of Japan, with Sho* Daimon (1,120) 64.9 24% 27% differences between the earlier decades and the 1990s given Jintsu Jintsu-ohashi (2,688) 300.1 12% 10% as percentages of the 1990s values. There are no negative Agano Maoroshi (6,997) 674.0 24% 21% Mogami Sagoshi (6,497) 762.0 26% 29% change values in the table, indicating that all of the rivers Omono Tsubakigawa (4,035) 392.7 28% 29% have experienced a decrease in their mean April discharge Yoneshiro Futatsui (3,750) 422.0 11% 16% rate. Indeed, April discharge rates in the 1990s were 10% to 36% smaller than those in the 1970s and 1980s, which *1 1970, 1994 and 1997 data missing; 2 also provides supporting evidence for climate change in this * 1993 data missing; region. 1990s: 10-year monthly mean discharge from 1990 to 1999; To clarify the possible effects of climate change on water 1980s: 10-year monthly mean discharge from 1980 to 1989; 1970s: 10-year monthly mean discharge from 1970 to 1979; resources, quantitative analysis is required. Such analysis Δ (1970s)=100* (1970s–1990s)/1990s; Δ (1980s)=100* (1980s–1990s)/1990s. Correspondence to: Xieyao Ma, Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, 3173-25 Showamachi, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama City, Kanagawa 236-0001, Japan. Received 14 December, 2009 E-mail: [email protected] ©2010, Japan Society of Hydrology and Water Resources. Accepted 3 March, 2010 —25— X. MA ET AL. downscaling method with bias correction and Tachikawa MODELS AND SETTING et al. (2009) states that the hydrological regime change should be investigated using high resolution general To examine river discharge, we used the WRF regional circulation model (GCM) data without any correction. climate model and the SVAT&HYCY model. Kobayashi et al. (2008) investigated precipitation change over the Shiribetsu River basin (1,640 km2) and Gokase The WRF Model River basin (1,820 km2) and compared simulated The WRF model is a mesoscale numerical weather hydrographs derived from various datasets. Hara et al. (2008) projection system designed to serve both operational reported the impact of global warming on snow depth in forecasting and atmospheric research needs. The model uses Japan. Hara et al.’s (2008) results correlated with observed full-compressible, non-hydrostatic equations. We used the precipitation during the winters of 2005 (high snow cover) Advanced Research WRF (ARW) core version 2.2 and 2006 (low snow cover) and projected that the snow (Skamarock et al., 2005) with a two-way nesting technique depth will decrease by 40% under the warmer conditions and the WRF single-moment 6-class microphysics scheme. currently projected for the 2070s. Wada et al. (2008) The parent domain was set to a wide area, between 28–46°N conducted a flood risk assessment of global warming using and 124–148°E on a 20-km grid. The inner domain was a regional climate model and high resolution GCM over located in a smaller area between 35.5–39.3°N and 135.7– Japan and indicated that the risk will increase in most areas. 141.5°E with a 5-km grid (Figure 2a). As mentioned by Tachikawa et al. (2009), the bias must We conducted two numerical experiments. One was the be removed from the GCM output data in order to do hindcast run (CTL) used to reproduce past hydrological hydrological modeling because the statistical properties of events of the 1980s and 1990s. The other was a pseudo- the GCM output data do not necessarily match up to that global-warming run (PGW) used to project the hydrological of observed data. There is no guarantee that the obtained response in the 2070s. The National Centers for technique, a bias correction technique from the current Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric climate experimental data and observed data, is applicable Research (NCEP/NCAR) 6-hourly reanalysis data (Kalnay to the future data. In this study, we examined the projections et al., 1996) was used as the lateral boundary condition for of a regional climate model used to investigate long-term the CTL. For the PGW, the lateral boundary condition was hydrological responses using a hydrological model. We used the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with dynamic downscaling to simulate input variables for the Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere Transfer and Hydrological Cycle (SVAT&HYCY) model. The study site was the Agano River basin, an area in Japan that receives heavy snowfall, located in the Hokuriku region. Model runs over a 20-year period were conducted, and the output hydrographs were compared with observational data. We then examined the effects of global warming on the hydrological processes of the Agano River basin using the pseudo-global-warming method. STUDY AREA The Agano River (Figure 1) drains into the Sea of Japan and is the second largest river in Japan with respect to annual discharge (12.9 billion m3, http://www.hrr.mlit.go.jp/agano/). The Agano River drains an area of 7,710 km2 making it the Figure 1. Location of the Agano River basin. eighth largest river basin in Japan. The two major tributaries of the Agano, the Tadami and Aga rivers, are both located in Fukushima Prefecture. The majority of the Agano River discharge is caused by the Tadami River, which drains an area receiving heavy winter snowfall. In its lower reaches, the Agano River flows through the Echigo Plain in Niigata Prefecture. The Echigo Plain is a major rice production area, ranking second in Japan in total rice output, and water is an important factor in determining the quantity and quality of the rice. In addition, there are many hydroelectric dams because of the abundant water resources of the basin. Therefore, the projection of future climate change in the Agano River is significant for the region’s economy and society. Figure 2. Domain of the WRF model (a): ① center of the parent domain (20-km grid); ② center of the inner domain (5-km grid).
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