Technical Analysis Trend-Wave Trading Harnessing the Power of the Elliott Wave Principle with the Discipline of Trend Following June 2011 Murray Gunn CFTe Head of Technical Analysis HSBC Bank plc +44 20 7991 6797
[email protected] View HSBC Global Research at: http://www.research.hsbc.com Issuer of report: HSBC Bank plc Disclosures and Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst ABC certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it Global Research1 The Elliott Wave Principle – A Basic Guide 1 Elliott Wave Principle A Fractal Design (5) Ralph Nelson Elliott (3) (B) Price action occurs in regular patterns Long 5 moves (or waves) in the direction of the primary Term 2 (4) 5 (A) trend 2 (1) 3 C 4 2 (C) 3 moves (or waves) when the price action is 1 A 4 correcting against the primary trend 5 1 3 B 1 4 (2) B 5 Repeat at every time frame or fractal Medium 3 Term 3 A 2 1 5 Mass human psychology is patterned C 1 4 5 B (5) Ratio analysis/natural mathematics (Phi, the golden 3 5 (B) 2 2 C ratio, 1.618, Leonardo Fibonacci) 1 4 A C 3 4 2 (3) 1 A 2 5 1 4 4 Elliott heavily influenced by Charles Dow Short B 3 B 1 Term 5 Wave Principle is the purest form of TA 3 A 2 (A) 3 (1) 5 The 1 C 5 4 (C) Full 3 B (4) Putting it all Cycle 1 A 2 together 2 4 C 2 (2) 2 Waves Are Self Similar in FORM… …but they do NOT have to be self similar in TIME or depth (AMPLITUDE) (5) Much more like REALITY 5 (3) 3 1 5 3 B 4 D 4 2 1 E (4) (1) 5 C 3 4 B 2 A 1 A 2 C 3 (2) Elliott’s Wave Principle is technical analysis Elliott heavily influenced by Charles Dow Empirical observations confirmed Dow’s Theory Refined Dow’s work into more detail Price and volume = pure technical analysis Edwards & Magee pattern recognition a derivative of Dow and Elliott 4 Dow Theory • Charles Dow’s editorials in his Wall Street Journal around 1900 • Analysis of price action of the market averages (Dow Industrials, Transports, Utilities) Distribution • Markets have 3 “movements” (value, primary and phase secondary movement).