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Hydrology Report Final DEVELOPMENT OF A RECONCILIATION STRATEGY FOR THE LUVUVHU AND LETABA WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM HYDROLOGY REPORT REFERENCE This report is to be referred to in bibliographies as: Department of Water Affairs, South Africa, 2014. DEVELOPMENT OF A RECONCILLIATION STRATEGY FOR THE LUVUVHU AND LETABA WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM: HYDROLOGY REPORT Prepared by: WRP Consulting Engineers, DMM Development Consultants, Golder Associates Africa, Worley Parsons, Kyamandi, Hydrosol and Zitholele Consulting. Report No. P WMA 02/B810/00/1412/5 Development of a Reconciliation Strategy for the Luvuvhu & Letaba Water Supply System Hydrology Report LIST OF REPORTS The following reports form part of this study: Report Title Report number Inception Report P WMA 02/B810/00//1412/1 Literature Review Report P WMA 02/B810/00//1412/2 Water requirements and Return Flow Report P WMA 02/B810/00//1412/3 Rainfall analysis report P WMA 02/B810/00//1412/4 Hydrology report (includes IAP) P WMA 02/B810/00//1412/5 Water Conservation and Water Demand Management Report P WMA 02/B810/00//1412/6 Water re-use report P WMA 02/B810/00//1412/7 Water Quality Assessment Report P WMA 02/B810/00//1412/8 Groundwater utilization scenarios P WMA 02/B810/00//1412/9 Yield Analysis Report (include EWR) P WMA 02/B810/00//1412/12 Planning Analysis Report P WMA 02/B810/00//1412/13 Water Supply Schemes, Social and Environmental Aspects P WMA 02/B810/00//1412/14 Final Reconciliation Strategy Report P WMA 02/B810/00//1412/15 Executive Summary of Final Reconciliation Strategy P WMA 02/B810/00//1412/16 Demographic and Economic Development Potential P WMA 02/B810/00//1412/17 LLRS_Hydrology Report_Fin i 2015/01/15 Development of a Reconciliation Strategy for the Luvuvhu & Letaba Water Supply System Hydrology Report DEVELOPMENT OF A RECONCILIATION STRATEGY FOR THE LUVUVHU AND LETABA WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM Hydrological Analysis EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Department of Water Affairs (DWA) has identified the need for the Reconciliation Study for the Luvuvhu-Letaba WMA. The WMA is almost fully developed and demands from the Letaba River currently exceed the yield capability of the system. Regulation for the Letaba WMA is mainly provided by Middle Letaba, Ebenezer and Tzaneen Dams. In the Luvuvhu WMA the recently completed Nandoni Dam will be used in combination with Albasini, Vondo and Damani dams to be managed as one system. It is expected that the total yield from this combined system will be fully utilized by around 2020, considering only the current planned projected demands. The yield of the Albasini Dam has reduced over the years and as a consequence the dam is over allocated. The Shingwedzi catchment is situated almost entirely in the Kruger National Park and for all practical purposes no sustainable yield is derived from surface flow in the Shingwedzi catchment. The main objective of the study is to compile a Reconciliation Strategy that will identify and describe water resource management interventions that can be grouped and phased to jointly form a solution to reconcile the water requirements with the available water for the period up to the year 2040 and to develop water availability assessment methodologies and tools applicable to this area that can be used for decision support as part of compulsory licensing to come. The development of the strategy requires reliable information on the water requirements and return flows (wastewater) as well as the available water resources for the current situation and likely future scenarios for a planning horizon of thirty years. To achieve the above objectives, the following main aspects will be covered in the study: • Update the current and future urban and agricultural water requirements and return flows; • Assess the water resources and existing infrastructure; • Configure the system models (WRSM2005, WRYM, WRPM) in the Study Area at a quaternary catchment scale, or finer where required, in a manner that is suitable for allocable water quantification; LLRS_Hydrology Report_Fin i 2015/01/15 Development of a Reconciliation Strategy for the Luvuvhu & Letaba Water Supply System Hydrology Report • To firm up on the approach and methodology, as well as modelling procedures, for decision support to the on-going licensing processes; • To use system models, in the early part of the study, to support allocable water quantifications in the Study Area and, in the latter part of the study, to support ongoing licensing decisions, as well as providing information for the development of the Reconciliation Strategy; • Formulate reconciliation interventions, both structural and administrative/regulatory; • Document the reconciliation process including decision processes that are required by the strategy; and • Conduct stakeholder consultation in the development of the strategy. a) Study Area The study area comprises of the water resources of the catchment of the Luvuvhu, Mutale, Letaba and Shingwedzi Rivers linked to adjacent systems linked by inter-basin transfers (see the Figure below, duplicate of Figure 1-1 in Section 1.3). Luvuvhu and Letaba Water Supply System LLRS_Hydrology Report_Fin ii 2015/01/15 Development of a Reconciliation Strategy for the Luvuvhu & Letaba Water Supply System Hydrology Report This area represents the entire WMA 2 and includes tertiary catchments A91, A92, B81, B82, B83 and B90. Adjacent areas supplying water to this WMA or getting water from this WMA are also part of the study area. b) Purpose and Objectives The purpose of this report is to describe the data and the results from the hydrological analysis for the Water Management Area. The report includes summaries of: • The objectives of the analysis. • The information sources of the data used. • The water use and return flow, infrastructure and hydro-meteorological data used in the analysis • The rainfall-runoff modelling results • The evaluation of the results • The conclusions and recommendation from the analysis. The main objectives of the hydrological analysis of the Luvuvhu, Letaba and Shingwedzi catchments were to: • Undertake a new comprehensive hydrological analysis to cover the Study period of 1920 to 2010 hydrological years (i.e. October 1920 to September 2011); and • Generate time-series of natural monthly stream flows for defined incremental sub-catchments covering the entire catchment areas over the selected study period. c) Information Sources Information used in thus study was obtained from a wide variety of sources, including numerous previous and parallel DWA studies as well as DWA databases such as HYDSTRA and WARMS. Other sources of information include Google Earth and satellite imagery. See Section 2 for more information on sources of information used during this study. d) Water Use Using the various sources of information available for the Study area, historical and present day (2006 development level) estimates of water use could be determined for the entire Luvuvhu and Letaba Water Management Area. The table below (duplicate of Table 4-1) provides an overview of the estimated total water use at 2010 development levels. As can be seen from this table irrigation is the largest water user sector in the WMA, although the indicated irrigation requirement isn’t the supplied volume, which is less than the requirement. The second and third largest water use sectors are domestic and commercial forestry sector of 17% and 12% respectively. Invasive Alien Plants (IAP) requirements only make out the 2% of the total LLRS_Hydrology Report_Fin iii 2015/01/15 Development of a Reconciliation Strategy for the Luvuvhu & Letaba Water Supply System Hydrology Report water requirements. It is estimated that the total groundwater requirement at 2010 development levels is 147.0 million m3/a (12% of total) in the WMA. Only approximately 109.8 million m3/a can be supplied from groundwater and this has an impact of approximately 57.6 million m3/a on surface water runoff-reduction. Summary of total water requirements in the Luvuvhu and Letaba Water Management Area for 2010 development levels. Water Requirements (million m3/a) % of Sector Source Luvuvhu and Letaba Shingwedzi WMA Total Total Mutale Surface Water 266.3 50.5 4.4 321.2 Irrigation(1) Groundwater 85.7 49.0 0.0 134.7 70% Sub-Total 352.0 99.5 4.4 455.9 Surface Water 64.8 32.0 0.0 96.8 Domestic and (2) Groundwater 9.1 3.2 0.0 12.3 17% industrial Sub-Total 73.9 35.2 0.0 109.1 Afforestation Surface Water 55.1 24.4 0.0 79.5 12% IAP Removal Surface Water 9.1 2.1 0.0 11.2 2% Surface Water 395.3 109.0 4.4 508.7 78% Secondary Groundwater 94.8 52.2 0.0 147.0 12% Catchment Total Total 490.1 161.2 4.4 655.7 100% % 75% 25% 1% 100% Notes: (1) Irrigation water requirement based partly on maximum allocation for schemes and total theoretical irrigation requirements for all other irrigation. The volume actually supplied to irrigators are significantly less than the indicated supply. Supply volumes will become more apparent in the subsequent yield and planning analyses. (2) Domestic requirements are firstly based on actual measured use, and for non-measured use capacities of treatment works or estimated per capita were used. In the Letaba Catchment 75% of the domestic and industrial water use is measured, although Thabina Dams’ use data is not readily available. For the Luvuvhu and Mutale Rivers only 56% of the total domestic and industrial uses are measured of which Mutale Town’s abstraction and Phiphidi Dam’s abstraction data is not readily available (see Table 4-2 in Section 4 for more detail). None of the WMA’s domestic groundwater abstractions are measured. There are significant commercial forestry in the upper reaches of the Letaba and Luvuvhu Catchments (see distribution of commercial forestry in Table 4.4 in Section 4 and in Figure A-5 in Appendix A).
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