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State of Washington 2020 Population Trends

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State of Washington 2020 Population Trends State of Washington 2020 Population Trends Forecasting & Research Division Office of Financial Management August 2020 To accommodate persons with disabilities, this document is available in alternative formats by calling the Office of Financial Management at 360-902-0401. TTY/TDD users should contact OFM via the Washington Relay Service at 711 or 1-800-833-6388. This publication and other current and historical demographic data are available electronically. Visit our website at www.ofm.wa.gov. TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 Part 1. State, County and City Populations 1 Summary of Population Trends: Washington State 1 Figure 1: State Population Change and Components of Change 2 Figure 2: Driver’s Licenses Surrendered to Washington 2 Figure 3: Births, Deaths and Natural Increase 3 Figure 4: Change in Housing Units 3 Summary of Population Trends: Counties and Cities 4 Figure 5: Percentage Change in Population by Region 6 Figure 6: Distribution of Population Change by County 7 Part 2. Data Tables 7 Table 1: Population and Components of Population Change 8 Table 2: Population and Components of Population Change by County: April 1, 2000, to April 1, 2010 9 Table 3: Population and Components of Population Change by County: April 1, 2010, to April 1, 2020 11 Table 4: Populations of Cities, Towns and Counties: April 1, 2010, to April 1, 2020 18 Table 5: Federal Corrections and OFM Adjustments to Census 2010 Public Law 94-171 Counts 20 Table 6: Rank of Cities and Towns by April 1, 2020, Population Size 26 Table 7: Alphabetical Listing of Cities and Towns with April 1, 2020, Population 29 Table 8: Housing Units by Structure Type for Cities, Towns and Counties: April 1, 2010, and April 1, 2020 37 Table 9: Annexations, Incorporations and Other Municipal Boundary Changes Approved by OFM 44 Table 10: Population Age 65 Years and Over by County 45 Table 11: Intercensal Estimates of Population by County: April 1, 2000, to April 1, 2010 46 Part 3. Supplemental Population Information 46 Washington State Statutes Related to the Population Estimates Program 46 Population Estimates Development 47 Small Area Estimates Program 48 Small Area Demographic Estimates 48 Population Data Products 49 Washington State Data Center and Business and Industry Data Center 50 Acknowledgments This page intentionally left blank. Part 1 STATE, COUNTY AND CITY POPULATIONS POPULATION TRENDS provides demographic data for Washington state counties, cities and towns as of April 1, 2020. Population determinations contained in this document are developed by the Office of Financial Management and represent the state’s official population figures. Population figures for Washington’s counties, cities and towns have been prepared on an annual basis for more than five decades. These estimates are cited in numerous statutes using population as criteria for fund allocation, program eligibility and determination of county participation under the Growth Management Act. The 2020 population estimates will be used for state program administration and in allocation of selected state revenues beginning in January 2021 as specified in RCW 36.13.100, 43.62.020, 43.62.030, 66.08.200 and 66.08.210. Summary of Population Trends: Washington State The April 1, 2020, population estimate places Washington’s population at 7,656,200. The state population grew by 109,800 persons, or 1.5%, over the past year. Although growth is down slightly from last year (-0.1%), it remains strong by historical standards. The COVID-19 crisis did not have a discernible impact on the 2020 estimates because most population change occurred before the crisis began. Migration is once again the primary driver behind Washington’s population growth. The net migration gain of 83,400 persons accounted for 76% of the state’s population growth, with natural increase (births minus deaths) responsible for the other 24%, or 26,300 persons. This is the seventh consecutive year that migration has exceeded the prior decade average of 45,000. Figure 1. State Population Change and Components of Change 160,000 Population Change Natural Increase 140,000 Net Migration 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 -20,000 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 1 Driver’s license data can be used to provide trend information about migration flows between Washington and other states. Approximately 46% of in-movers to Washington last year came from California, Oregon, Texas, Florida, and Arizona. The 12-month total of in-movers from these five states was 68,800, but this statistic is missing data from mid-March to April 1 due to COVID-19 office closures. The remaining states accounted for 48% of in-migrants, with 6% arriving from other countries. Figure 2. Driver’s Licenses Surrendered to Washington 6.1% 4.0% Arizona California Florida 21.1% Oregon Texas Rest of U.S. Outside of U.S. 4.2% 47.6% 11.2% 5.8% During the past year, 26,300 persons were added to the state’s population due to natural increase, down 2,300 from the prior year. Due to lower fertility rates, births have been relatively stable even though there are more women of childbearing age. Deaths have been increasing as the population ages. Natural increase, as a share of state total population growth, is expected to gradually decline over time due to increasing mortality. Last decade, population growth due to natural increase averaged 38,000 persons per year, or 46% of total population growth, while this decade, natural increase is averaging 33,800 persons per year, or 36% of total population growth. Figure 3. Births, Deaths and Natural Increase 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Births Deaths Natural Increase 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2 Housing, another indicator of population change, continued to strengthen in 2020. Housing growth in 2020 increased by 4% over the previous year. Washington added 46,800 housing units last year — 1,800 more than the previous year. This marks the second time this decade that annual housing change has exceeded the prior decade average of 43,500 housing units. Annual average housing change this decade is 33,200 units, 24% below the prior decade’s average. Statewide, 54% of all new housing units were associated with multi-family structures. Figure 4. Change in Housing Units 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Summary of Population Trends: Counties and Cities Population growth remains concentrated in the five largest metropolitan counties. For the third year in a row, nearly 70% of state population growth occurred in the state’s five largest counties: Clark, King, Pierce, Snohomish and Spokane. King County accounted for the largest share of state growth this year, at 31%, followed by Pierce and Snohomish at 11% each. The state’s 20 nonmetropolitan counties accounted for 8% of population growth, about the same as the previous year. Different county classification schemes can be used to examine population change in more detail. In 2020, Eastern Washington grew by 1.4% and Western Washington by 1.5%. Counties along the Interstate 5 corridor grew by 1.5% versus 1.3% for the rest of the state. Metropolitan counties grew 1.5% compared to nonmetropolitan counties, which grew 1.1%. Counties that border, or are within, Puget Sound grew by 1.4% versus non-Puget Sound counties, which grew by 1.5%. Rural counties, defined by RCW 82.14.370, grew by 1.2% versus 1.5% for non-rural counties. Distressed area counties, defined by RCW 43.168.020, grew by 1.3% versus 1.5% for the remaining counties. 3 Figure 5. Percentage Change in Population by Region 3.0% Western Wash Eastern Wash 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 3.0% I-5 Corridor Other 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 3.0% Metro Nonmetro 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 4 Figure 5. Percentage Change in Population by Region, Continued 3.0% Puget Sound Other 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 3.0% Rural Nonrural 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 3.0% Distressed Not distressed 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 5 The geographic distribution of population change by county can be seen in Figure 6. Kittitas was the fastest-growing county between 2019 and 2020, with 3.4% growth, followed by Clark, Douglas, and Franklin at 2.2%. In 2020, 20 counties experienced growth exceeding 1.0%, with 7 of these being nonmetropolitan counties. Figure 6. Distribution of Population Change by County Whatcom 2,700 Pend Oreille San Juan (1.2%) 110 (0.8%) 190 Skagit Okanogan Ferry (1.11%) 1,250 400 80 Stevens (0.97%) (0.94%) (1.02%) 350 (0.77%) Clallam Island 760 710 Snohomish 11,800 (1%) (0.84%) Chelan (1.44%) 1,240 Jefferson Douglas 290 (1.58%) Kitsap 930 Lincoln Spokane (0.91%) 2,100 King (2.17%) 90 7,350 Mason (0.78%) 34,500 (0.82%) (1.43%) 670 (1.55%) Grays Harbor Grant (1.03%) Kittitas 560 1,390 Pierce 1,570 (0.76%) Thurston (1.41%) Adams Whitman 12,400 (3.37%) 5,200 300 350 (1.4%) (1.82%) (1.49%) (0.7%) Pacific Lewis Franklin Garfield 200 770 (0.92%) Yakima 2,080 5 (0.97%) 2,250 (2.2%) (0.23%) Wahkiakum (0.88%) Benton 20 Cowlitz 3,900 Walla Walla Asotin (0.48%) 1,550 Skamania (1.93%) 380 Columbia 120 (1.42%) (0.61%) 25 160 Klickitat (0.53%) Clark (0.6%) (1.33%) 340 10,700 (1.52%) (2.19%) Washington State 109,790 (1.45%) Numeric Change ≤160 ≤380 ≤1,240 ≤2,700 ≤34,500 Note: Classification of map data based on quintile distribution.
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