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Honda Odyssey State of the Industry And Key Introductions at 2017 NAIAS Stephanie Brinley, Senior Analyst Detroit Athletic Center Detroit, MI January 17th, 2017 © 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. Contents • Automotive Sales Environment for Near Term • Autonomy and Mobility: Implications • NAIAS 2017 © 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. Contents • Automotive Sales Environment for Near Term • Autonomy and Mobility: Implications • NAIAS 2017 © 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. US: Light Vehicle Sales Forecast Sales peak here; return to previous long-term trend level possible Market peaks in mid-2017 – weaker buying conditions, 20 2017 slower job creation, rising oil prices start next cycle. 17.5m 18 Some return to ‘cars’ likely next decade. Millions 16 14 LT – peaks in 2018, weaker housing, higher fuel & 12 regulations force decline Pre-Crash 10 40 year trend: +140k annually 8 6 Car – sales flatten - rises with as affordability declines 4 Sales Vol Car Light Truck Linear (Sales Vol) Source: IHS Markit Automotive, current light vehicles sales forecast © 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. Utility Vehicles Continue to Gain—But Cars Remain Significant Share45% of Sales, 2016 vs 2022 • Share of Utility Vehicles 40% continues to increase 35% • Share of Pickup Trucks is 30% steady and stable 25% • Utility Vehicle and Cars 20% make up more than 75% 15% of the market 10% • Pickups, Sports Cars, 5% MPVs and Vans make up 0% remaining 25% CUV Car Pickup Source: IHS 2016 2020 © 2017 IHS © 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. Premium, Luxury Segments Continue to Gain 90.0% • Sales of premium and 80.0% exotic price and brand 70.0% vehicles continue to 60.0% gain share 50.0% • Gain is supported by increased number of 40.0% offerings, particularly 30.0% utility vehicles 88.2% 85.6% 20.0% • Mainstream brands see 10.0% 13.2% pricing increase on 0.3% 1.3% 11.5% 0.0% higher technology, Exotic Premium Standard safety features Source: IHS 2016 2020 © 2017 IHS © 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. Top 12 Automakers Market Share, Top 12 Automakers, 2016-2020 CY 2016 CY 2017 CY 2018 CY 2019 CY 2020 General Motors 16.8% 16.7% 16.4% 16.2% 15.8% Ford 15.0% 14.7% 14.4% 14.2% 14.4% Toyota 13.9% 14.1% 13.9% 13.5% 13.6% FCA 13.2% 12.3% 11.9% 12.1% 12.0% Honda 9.4% 9.6% 9.6% 9.5% 9.3% Nissan 8.9% 8.5% 8.5% 8.7% 8.5% Hyundai 8.1% 8.3% 8.7% 8.7% 8.8% Volkswagen 3.3% 3.9% 4.2% 4.3% 4.4% Subaru 3.4% 3.4% 3.5% 3.6% 3.5% Daimler 2.2% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.3% BMW 2.1% 2.2% 2.2% 2.3% 2.4% Mazda 1.8% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0% Source: IHS Markit © 2017 IHS © 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. 7 Automaker Share, Car, UV and Truck General50% Motors Toyota50% Motor Sales Ford40% Motor Company 35% 40% 40% 45% 44% 30% 40% 38% 34% 33% 37% 33% 31% 30% 30% 35% 25% 31% 31% 20% 25% 22% 21% 20% 20% 15% 21% 10% 10% 10% 13% 11% 5% 0% 0% 0% CUV Pickup Car Car CUV Pickup CUV Pickup Car % of CY 2016 % of CY 2020 % of CY 2016 % of CY 2020 % of CY 2016 % of CY 2020 Source: IHS © 2017 IHS Source: IHS © 2017 IHS Source: IHS © 2017 IHS Fiat60% Chrysler Automobiles American50% Honda Nissan60% North America 50% 46% 46% 50% 49% 49% 40% 50% 41% 42% 40% 40% 47% 30% 39% 42% 30% 30% 20% 20% 25% 20% 21% 10% 13% 10% 10% 10% 1% 3% 7% 7% 0% 0% 0% % of CY 2016 % of CY 2020 Car CUV Pickup Car CUV Pickup CUV Pickup Car % of CY 2016 % of CY 2020 % of CY 2016 % of CY 2020 Source: IHS © 2017 IHS Source: IHS © 2017 IHS Source: IHS © 2017 IHS © 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. 8 Automaker Share, Car, UV and Truck Hyundai/Kia70% Volkswagen70% AG Subaru80% 60% 60% 70% 60% 74% 75% 65% 60% 50% 58% 50% 49% 50% 40% 40% 39% 40% 30% 30% 30% 33% 31% 30% 20% 20% 20% 25% 25% 10% 10% 10% 0% 0% 0% % of CY 2016 % of CY 2020 % of CY 2016 % of CY 2020 % of CY 2016 % of CY 2020 Car CUV Car CUV Car CUV Source: IHS © 2017 IHS Source: IHS © 2017 IHS Source: IHS © 2017 IHS Daimler50% AG BMW60% Mazda60% North America 50% 50% 40% 50% 42% 42% 43% 48% 49% 39% 40% 48% 40% 44% 30% 43% 30% 39% 30% 20% 41% 20% 20% 10% 10% 10% 0% 0% 0% % of CY 2016 % of CY 2020 % of CY 2016 % of CY 2020 % of CY 2016 % of CY 2020 CUV Car Car CUV Car CUV Source: IHS © 2017 IHS Source: IHS © 2017 IHS Source: IHS © 2017 IHS © 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. 9 Contents • Automotive Sales Environment for Near Term • Autonomy and Mobility: Implications • NAIAS 2017 © 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. Autonomy and Mobility: Implications • Why autonomy? What do the levels of autonomy mean? • When will autonomous vehicles really arrive? • What does mobility have to do with it? © 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. Why autonomous? There’s not a single reason Safety Societal Cost Efficiency Consumer 35,092 killed in 6.3M $277B in economic $160B in US congestion Connectivity crashes in the US in costs costs 2015, 1.9% of GDP Convenience 94% driver fault 3.1B gallons of fuel $871B in quality-of- burned in US due to Sustainability 1.24M road deaths life costs congestion worldwide 5.8% of GDP Mobility in 2010, half are 6.9B hours wasted sitting vulnerable road users in traffic Choice Source: NHTSA, WHO Lower Cost Source: IRTAD, various Source: Texas A&M estimates, 2010 Transportation Institute & INRIX, 2014 © 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. Language defined – SAE Levels as industry standard Autonomous = Level 4 and Level 5 Full Automation L5 IHS Driverless car High Automation L4 IHS Self-driving car L3 Conditional Automation L2 Partial Automation Steering and Braking Increasing Automation L1 Driver Assistance Steering or Braking L0 No Automation Based on Society of Automotive Engineers levels of automation (SAE J3016) Note: IHS Markit Autonomous Vehicle forecasts use different structure but similar nomenclature. SOURCE: IHS Automotive © 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. Autonomous Driving Service Language defined – Real-world examples of SAE Levels Autonomous = Level 4 and Level 5 Full Automation Fully autonomous driverless fleets L5 Full autonomy | Driverless car Mobility service business model High Automation Fully autonomous autopilots L4 Full autonomy | Self-driving car Drivers disengage in more situations Conditional Automation Advanced autopilots L3 Drivers intermittently re-engage L2 Partial Automation Autopilot Traffic jam assist Adaptive cruise control L1 Driver Assistance Lane keep assist Autonomous parking Collision warning L0 No Automation Lane departure warning Blind spot information 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Based on Society of Automotive Engineers levels of automation (SAE J3016) Note: IHS Markit Autonomous Vehicle forecasts use different structure than SAE despite similar nomenclature. SOURCE: IHS Automotive © 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. Autonomous Driving Service Autonomy and Mobility: Implications • Why Autonomy? What do the Levels of Autonomy Mean? • When will autonomous vehicles really arrive? • What does mobility have to do with it? © 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. Current state of the art & announced plans L 5 Details or timeline unclear L 4 Limited drive via remote driver control “Autonomous by 2020” L announcements 3 L 2 Wide variety of systems bordering L2 Many incremental and evolutionary steps within Level 2 LEVEL OF 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 AUTOMATION 2021 IHS Level 4: Fully autonomous with driver controls © 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. IHS Level 5: Fully autonomous without driver controls New capabilities are needed to enable autonomy Automakers & suppliers gaining expertise via acquisition, partnership, internal development Sensing Computing Cloud Connectivity User Driver Artificial Maps Experience Software Intelligence Service Business Model Auto Expertise Tech Expertise © 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. Technological Progress: Auto Companies vs Tech Companies • How quickly will Auto Technology and Manufacturing converge? > Tech companies have software and tech expertise, massive resources, agility and no fear of failure > Auto companies understand complex auto industry requirements, product lifecycles and support, vehicle dynamics, and control traditional sales channels and incumbent markets > Which companies in which sector will expand and perfect their skillsets faster? > What becomes the biggest asset? Is it still manufacturing and footprint, or is it technology and innovation? Auto companies develop/acquire new Tech companies find willing Auto + talent at a Tech sector pace + manufacturing partners who may not have Auto maintains leverage while own Tech skills + partnering with Tech to make and Tech leverages new automated + manufacture new vehicles manufacturing to produce cars © 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. Expected Deployment Scenario L4-5 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 North America W. Europe Japan / Korea China 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 North America W. Europe Japan / Korea China 0% 0 – 1% 1 – 10% > 10% > 50% (Sales rate relative to base sales forecast) Over-regulation and stubborn views stifle + Favorable regulations enabling innovation - innovation + Consumer interest & acceptance - Distrust, unwillingness to buy © 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. Self-driving sounds good, but there are challenges Technology •Easiest challenge to ‘solve’ but still takes time •Artificial intelligence, computing, sensors get better and cheaper Regulation •Developing regulatory framework in the US •Adapting Vienna Convention in Europe and abroad Insurance •New paradigm of product liability, not personal liability •Adapting the insurance model to dynamic usage, multiple users Public Acceptance •Value proposition brings mobility to more people at lower cost •Trust in autopilot today a likely sign of wider acceptance over time Bad Press •Early crashes and fatalities could delay acceptance •Will consumers accept fatalities attributed to a robot? © 2017 IHS Markit.
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