ASEANFOCUS is a bimonthly publication providing concise analyses and perspectives on ASEAN matters ISSUE 3/2017 • • 15 MAY/JUNE 2017 ISSN: 2424-8045 ASEANFocus ASEAN 1967-2017 CELEBRATING FIVE DECADES OF REGIONAL COOPERATION ASEANFocus is published by the ASEAN Studies Centre at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute and available electronically at www.iseas.edu.sg Contents If you wish to receive an electronic copy of ASEANFocus, please email us at [email protected] 1 EDITORIAL NOTES EDITORIAL CHAIRMAN Tan Chin Tiong 2 ASEAN-DPRK: BUSINESS AS USUAL? MANAGING EDITOR HOANG THI HA Tang Siew Mun 4 ASEAN’S LONG AND WINDING ROAD PRODUCTION EDITOR Hoang Thi Ha TO PROTECTING MIGRANT WORKERS MOE THUZAR ASSISTANT PRODUCTION EDITOR 6 THE STATE OF THE REGION Jason Salim INTERVIEW WITH YOUNG LEADERS FROM THE 2017 SHANGRI-LA DIALOGUE EDITORIAL COMMITTEE Moe Thuzar Sanchita Basu Das 8 TIMOR LESTE: IN OR OUT? Termsak Chalermpalanupap TERMSAK CHALERMPALANUPAP AND TANG SIEW MUN Pham Thi Phuong Thao Nur Aziemah Aziz OUTLOOK AT 50: DISRUPTION AND THE NEW ECONOMY 10 Seizing the Upsides of Digital Disruption JONATHAN REES 12 Hailing the Ride of Innovation LEE DER-HORNG AND SREYUS PALLIYANI Supported by: 14 ASEAN in Figures 16 E-Commerce in Southeast Asia MAXIMILIAN BITTNER 18 Transforming Manufacturing in ASEAN PHU HUYNH, GARY RYNHART AND JAE-HEE CHANG 20 INSIDER VIEWS SIDNEY JONES ON THE THREAT OF ISIS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA PEOPLE AND PLACES 22 Wu Chun: From Moving Hearts to Moving People JASON SALIM The responsibility for facts and opinions in this publication rests 23 Pulau Ubin: Urban Idyllic exclusively with the authors NUR AZIEMAH AZIZ and their interpretations do not necessarily reflect the views or 24 KNOW YOUR ASEAN the policy of ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute or its supporters. No ASEAN Centre for Biodiversity part of this publication may be ROBERTO OLIVA reproduced in any form without permission. ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute The ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute (formerly Institute of Southeast Asian Studies) is an autonomous organisation 30 Heng Mui Keng Terrace established in 1968. It is a regional centre dedicated to the study of socio-political, security, and economic Pasir Panjang trends and developments in Southeast Asia and its wider geostrategic and economic environment. The Institute’s research programmes are grouped under Regional Economic Studies (RES), Regional Social and Singapore 119614 Cultural Studies (RSCS) and Regional Strategic and Political Studies (RSPS). The Institute is also home to the Tel: (65) 6870 4509 ASEAN Studies Centre (ASC), the Nalanda-Sriwijaya Centre (NSC) and the Singapore APEC Study Centre. Fax: (65) 6778 1735 ASEANFocus • Editorial Notes • In this issue, we continue to play close attention to some of the most important issues facing the region and ASEAN. Ms. Moe Thuzar explains the roadblocks to ASEAN’s decade-long journey of developing a regional instrument to protect the rights of migrant workers. Dr. Termsak Chalermpalanupap and Dr. Tang Siew Mun debate the merits of admitting Timor-Leste into ASEAN. Further afield, Ms. Hoang Thi Ha analyses the potential ramifications of the North Korean nuclear programme to Southeast Asia and how ASEAN should respond. The 16th Shangri-La Dialogue recently held on 2-4 June provided a timely platform for Southeast Asian countries and its closest extra-regional partners to discuss challenges to the regional rules-based order as well as other pressing security concerns. ASEANFocus is pleased to feature some thoughts on the state of the region as shared by the selected participants in the Southeast Asian Young Leaders’ Programme which was held on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue. This issue’s Outlook at 50 focuses on the transformative and disruptive impacts to the region’s economy brought about by new technologies. As the world is bracing for the Fourth ver the past two months, the world is in awe of the Industrial Revolution, what does the future hold for the major powers in contrasting ways. China lavishly emerging new economy in the ASEAN region? Mr. Jonathan Oorganised the Belt and Road Forum for International Rees of Ernst and Young outlines how Southeast Asian Cooperation in May, signalling Beijing’s ambition to become countries are priming themselves to take advantage of the a new champion for globalisation through the Belt and new opportunities in the digital age. Prof. Lee Der-Horng Road Initiative with a focus on infrastructure development. and Mr. Sreyus Palliyani expound on the challenges and Although the details of this grand project remain vague, opportunities for the taxi industry across the region with the what is crystal clear is China’s desire to tie its fortunes to that rise of ride-hailing apps. By telling the story of the Lazada of Eurasia, coastal South and Southeast Asia, parts of Europe, Group, its CEO Mr. Maximilian Bittner then highlights the Africa and the Gulf states. Meanwhile in June, US President massive potential of e-commerce in the region. Mr. Phu Donald Trump, true to his “America First” calling, pulled the Huynh, Mr. Gary Rynhart and Ms. Jae-Hee Chang, experts US out of the Paris Agreement on climate change, declaring from the International Labour Organisation, examine that he was responsible only to the voters of “Pittsburgh, the disruptive impacts of new technologies, especially not Paris”. Southeast Asia is watching the unfolding of these automation and robotics, to key manufacturing sectors in developments in both excitement and anxiety. the ASEAN region. ASEAN in Figures illustrates these new trends with thought-provoking statistics on disruptive Closer to home, regional countries are on high alert for technologies and the new economy. terrorism and violent extremism, stunned by the twin bomb blasts in Jakarta on 24 May. Just a few days later, the siege For People and Places, we are proud to feature Bruneian of Marawi city in southern Philippines by ISIS-affiliated international superstar Wu Chun and Singapore’s idyllic local militants dramatically redefined the region’s counter- Pulau Ubin. For Know Your ASEAN, Mr. Roberto Oliva – terrorism landscape. Traditional Islamic fundamentalist Executive Director of the ASEAN Centre for Biodiversity – groups are taking a backseat as new ISIS-linked groups or introduces you to the good work of the Centre in preserving ISIS-inspired lone wolves emerge into the spotlight. To shed the region’s rich environmental heritage. light on the context and regional impacts of the Marawi crisis, we feature the thoughts of Ms. Sidney Jones, a renowned We would like to take this opportunity to wish all our terrorism expert, in Insider Views. Muslim readers a joyous Eid Mubarak. ■ ISSUE 3/2017 | MAY/JUNE 2017 1 ASEANFocus • Analysis • ASEAN-DPRK: Business as Usual? HOANG THI HA discusses ASEAN’s response as the situation in the Korean Peninsula heats up. SEAN is unwittingly casted in the spotlight on the these principles as parameters, the DPRK is most often on Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) issue the receiving end of ASEAN’s criticism which has recently Ain recent months. The DPRK, through an unusual increased in pace with the frequency of Pyongyang’s nuclear letter by its Foreign Minister in April, sought ASEAN’s tests and missile launches. In the first four months of support in protesting US-South Korean joint military 2017, the ASEAN Foreign Ministers issued four statements exercises. Meanwhile, the Trump Administration, after the on this subject. first few months of neglect, eagerly reached out to ASEAN and its member countries in May to intensify international ASEAN’s common position on the Korean Peninsula diplomatic isolation and economic sanctions against however never gets beyond the usual principles. To raise Pyongyang. Expectations on ASEAN from both sides of the the bar of diplomatic pressure would require consensus of spectrum are wildly divergent, and to some extent, undue. all ASEAN countries which remains elusive. ASEAN could not even issue a statement over the 13 February assassination ASEAN’s common position on the Korean Peninsula rests on of Kim Jong-nam in Kuala Lumpur despite the gravity of the principles of de-nuclearisation, de-escalation, peaceful this incident – an alleged state-sponsored act of murder on settlement of disputes, self-restraint and compliance with the the territory of an ASEAN country using a weapon of mass United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions. With destruction. A North Korean missile test in progress Royal United Services Institute Services United Royal 2 ISSUE 3/2017 | MAY/JUNE 2017 ASEANFocus • Analysis • An examination of ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ statements “As an organisation, over the years suggests a consistent pattern of response: loud and clear when the subject matter is straightforward but there is little evasive on complex and sensitive issues. The South China Sea ASEAN can do to is the often cited example, but it is not the only one. When Malaysian Airlines MH17 was downed in July 2014, ASEAN meaningfully affect issued an immediate condemnation. But when North Korea the situation on the barred Malaysian citizens from travelling out of the country in March, an act contravening international law and diplomatic Korean Peninsula. practices, ASEAN failed to mount a public reproach. Acknowledging this As an organisation, there is little ASEAN can do to reality is necessary meaningfully affect the situation on the Korean Peninsula. to avoid misplaced Acknowledging this reality is necessary to avoid misplaced expectations and undue pressure. But ASEAN does have expectations and some space for leverage, albeit with limited effect thus undue pressure.” far, through the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) where the DPRK is a member. How ASEAN should now leverage this space is subject for debate. Furthermore, the DPRK has manipulated diplomatic ties A proposition which is gaining traction is to discharge North with and regulatory loopholes in Southeast Asian countries Korea from the ARF.