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European Real Estate Market 2016

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European Real Estate Market 2016 April 2017 Contents 2 The European Union European Demography Urbanization Real Estate Market Economy 2016 5 European Office Market 8 European Retail Market 11 European Logistics Market Duff & Phelps 1 2016 European Real Estate Market Report - April 2017 The European Union The EU • When European countries started to The European Union cooperate economically in 1951, only Belgium, Germany, France, Italy, Luxembourg and the Netherlands participated • The Union reached its current size of 28 member countries with the accession of Croatia on 1 July 2013 • On June, 23rd, the people of the UK voted to withdraw from the European Union. The UK remains an EU Member State until negotiations on the terms of exit are completed. Demography • The current demographic situation in the EU-28 is characterized by continue population growth • 2015 was the first year (since the series began in 1961) when there was a natural © European Union, 2013 Service Audiovisual – EC Source: decrease in population numbers in the EU-28 • On 1 January 2016, the population of the EU-28 was estimated at 510.1 million inhabitants, which was 1.8 million more than a year before EU 28 Population % • A total of 17 Member States observed an 520,000,000 0.5 increase in their respective populations, while the population fell in the remaining 500,000,000 0.4 11 Member States 480,000,000 0.3 460,000,000 0.2 440,000,000 0.1 420,000,000 0 400,000,000 -0.1 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Var. % Population Population (EU 28 Countries, left scale) (EU 28 Countries, right scale) Source: REAG R&D on Eurostat data Duff & Phelps 2 2016 European Real Estate Market Report - April 2017 The European Union Urbanization • Almost three quarters of the European Capital cities - Population: last 10 years variation (%) population lived in an urban area in 2015 30% • According to the United Nations (World 25% urbanization prospects 2014) in Europe the 20% share of the population living in urban areas 15% projected to rise to just over 80% by 2050 10% • Capital cities have the highest population 5% growth. Population growth in the capital 0% metro regions is more than double the total -5% EU-28 population -10% • Cities attract more working-age residents -15% Source: REAG R&D on Eurostat data Riga Paris Sofia Berlin Rome Tallinn Dublin Vilnius Lisbon Vienna Madrid Athens Prague Zagreb Valletta Brussel London • Over the next decade, with the exception of Helsinki Lefkosia Warsaw Ljubljana Bratislava Budapest Bucharest Stockholm Ireland, Greece and Spain, all capital metro Amsterdam Luxembourg Copenhagen regions are expected to grow faster than their respective national average Economy • The year 2016 heralded great changes that 4,000 40% altered the international scene 35.8% 35.9% 34.3% 3,500 33.3% 35% 31.8% 31.5% 31.4% 30.1% • The return to expansive budget policies 3,000 28.7% 30% 26.5% may aid the recovery of international trade, 25.0% 2,500 25% 22.6% 22.2% 21.8% but the risk of “protectionism” is rising 21.4% 20.3% 19.7% 19.2% 18.9% 18.6% 18.4% 20% 2,000 18.2% 17.6% simultaneously 17.3% 14.9% 1,500 14.0% 15% • Insecurity undermines the trust of 12.5% 1,000 10% companies and families and leads to the 7.0% postponement of investment plans 500 5% • Our outlook of the national and 0 0% Source: REAG R&D on Eurostat data international real estate market continues Italy Malta Latvia Spain Ireland France Austria Poland Finland Cyprus Croatia Estonia Greece Belgium Bulgaria Sweden Portugal Hungary Slovenia Romania Lithuania Denmark to be based on the fundamental aspects of Germany Netherlands the market that appear to be recovering, Luxembourg Slovak Republic Czech Republic although sustained by a feeble, erratic United Kingdom Nominal GDP 2016 US$ var. % GDP 2021/2016 economic growth Duff & Phelps 3 2016 European Real Estate Market Report - April 2017 EU 28 Countries: GDP pro-capita US$ 500 km 300 mi d-maps.com © GDP per capita (US$) <10000 <30000 <50000 >50000 Source: REAG R&D Duff & Phelps 4 2016 European Real Estate Market Report - April 2017 European Office Market Investments volume • Political uncertainty could affect investment Investments (€ billion) volume 300 250 • Investors look for core properties in the liquid markets of Western Europe 200 • In 2016, the volume of investments in the 150 office sector decreased (-5%) but demand 100 is strengthening in Western Europe 50 • In 2016, demand in CEE markets was lower respect 2015 but it was still solid in some 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: REAG R&D on various sources areas like Germany, UK and Poland Office Total Key drivers for 2017 • Management of office space • Technology • Shorter leases • Co-working facilities • Risk averse investors • German market will lead the way • The short-trend term for yields is still down • The trend of strengthening demand for office space continues Lack of supply of core assets 18% 170 200 120 Vacancy 16% 80 60 50 50 100 20 • Vacancy rates continue to decline in most 14% 0 0 -50 -50 -50 -50 -50 of the major markets reaching at 8.2% in 12% -60 -80 -10 -30 -90 -40 average across European markets -130 -130 -100 10% -90 -146 -180 • The greatest yearly decline was registered 8% -150 -200 6% in Amsterdam (-430 bps) -300 4% -400 -430 -400 2% 0% -500 Source: REAG R&D on various sources Oslo Paris Milan Berlin Rome Zurich Dublin Lisbon Vienna Madrid Prague Munich London Helsinki Warsaw Moscow Frankfurt Hamburg Barcelona Brusselles Stockholm Dusseldorf Amsterdam Birmingham Luxembourg Copenhagen St. Petersbourg Vacancy rate (%) YoY var. (bps) Duff & Phelps 5 2016 European Real Estate Market Report - April 2017 European Office Market Prime rents and yields • In 2016, average prime rents grew by 3% European Average prime office rents and yields % 480 6,0% • The strongest growth can be observed in 460 the Western Europe 5,0% 440 • Rental growth prospective are still positive 420 4,0% 400 but with different patterns for each Country 3,0% 380 • Average prime yields declined, reaching 360 2,0% 340 4.3% 1,0% 320 • In 2017, further yields compression is 300 0,0% Source: REAG R&D on various sources expected in many markets 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Net prime yields (%) Prime rents (€/sqm/year) • The long-trend for yields is up, reflecting a probable increase of interest rates Market highlights • London: take-up of office space in Central Office market (2016) London increased by 26% in Q4 2016. 1,600 12% Prime rents remained unchanged in the 1,400 City 10% 1,200 • Milan: domestic investors are growing. 8% 1,000 Prime yields are slightly decreasing 800 6% • Frankfurt: take-up of office space 600 increases by 36% in 2016. Vacancy rate 4% increases by 20 bps 400 2% 200 • Munich: vacancy continues to decrease. Scarcity of supply is limiting deals 0 0% Source: REAG R&D on various sources Oslo Paris Milan Berlin Rome Zurich Dublin Lisbon Vienna Madrid Prague Munich London • Paris: the volume of projects in pipeline is Helsinki Warsaw Moscow Frankfurt Glasgow Hamburg Barcelona Edinburgh Brusselles Stockholm Dusseldorf Amsterdam Manchester equal to 1.8 mln sqm. Vacancy is at the Birmingham Luxembourg Copenhagen lowest level since 2016 Prime rent (€/sqm/year) Net prime yield (%) • Dublin: prime office yields remained quite stable. Take-up is in line with the record level of 2015 • Madrid: take-up decreased by 11% in 2016. Prime rents continue to upward Duff & Phelps 6 2016 European Real Estate Market Report - April 2017 European Office Market 500 km 300 mi d-maps.com © Legend: Prime rents (€/sqm/year) Prime yields (%) Oslo Helsinki 485 360 4,0% 4,6% Edinburg Glasgow 399 386 5,5% Stockholm 5,5% 599 Moscow 3,7% 563 Dublin 10,5% 663 Manchester Copenhagen 4,5% 442 Hamburg 240 Birmingham 5,1% 303 4,1% 433 Amsterdam 3,7% London 5,3% 354 Dusseldorf 1.360 317 4,8% Warsaw 3,3% 4,2% Berlin Brussels 321 275 260 3,6% 5,4% Paris 4,9%Luxembourg Prague 778 543 Frankfurt 236 3,1% 4,6% 455 4,7% 4,1% Wien Zurich Munich 302 734 416 3,5% 2,8% 3,3% Milan 550 4,5% Madrid Barcelona Lisbon 253 212 326 4,0% 4,2% Rome 5,0% 400 4,5% Source: REAG R&D on various data Duff & Phelps 7 2016 European Real Estate Market Report - April 2017 European Retail Market Investments volume • Low inflation and wage growth boosted Investments (€ billion) private consumption 300 • In H2 2016 confider confidence in EU 250 improved 200 • Investors look for core properties in the 150 liquid markets of Western Europe 100 • In 2016, the volume of investments in the 50 retail sector decreased (-22%) but demand is strengthening in Western Europe 0 Source: REAG R&D on various sources 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 • In 2016, demand in CEE markets was lower Retail Total respect 2015 but it was still solid in some areas like Germany, UK and France Key drivers for 2017 • Technology • Sharing economy • Growth of tourism in prime locations • German market will lead the way European Average prime retail rents and yields 250 6.0% • The short-trend term for prices is up but slowly 200 5.0% 4.0% • Lack of supply in the high streets of 150 Western Europe cities 3.0% 100 • Retail sales volume will grow but slower 2.0% than in 2016 50 1.0% • Gap between prime and secondary assets 0 0% Source: REAG R&D on various sources 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Net prime yields (%) Shopping Centre yields High street rents Shopping Centre rents Vacancy • Vacancy rates continue to decline in most of the major markets reaching at 5% in average across European markets Duff & Phelps 8 2016 European Real Estate Market Report - April 2017 European Retail Market Prime rents and yields • In
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