Welsh Assembly Government Facilitating Planning for Renewable Energy in Wales: Meeting the Target Final Report - Research Contracts 105/2002 and 269/2003 Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 Glossary 7 Acknowledgements – Stage 1 8 Acknowledgements – Stage 2 9 1 Introduction and overview 10 1.1 Project background and aim 10 1.2 Phasing of Project 10 1.3 Report Structure 11 1.4 Methodology 11 Part A - Context 13 2 Policy context in Wales 14 2.1 Introduction 14 2.2 Energy Policy 14 2.3 Planning Policy 15 2.4 Conclusions of review 19 2.5 Planning approaches available to the Welsh Assembly Government 19 Part B - Stage 1 -Initial work 24 3 Summary of the Stage 1 Research 25 3.1 Introduction and Stage 1 Brief 25 3.2 Context – Developing a planning tool 26 3.3 Methodology for Stage 1 28 3.4 Scoping the Technologies 29 3.5 Developing locational criteria 35 3.6 Conclusions of the Stage 1 Research 39 Part C- Stage 2 Research and Analysis 40 4 Context to the Stage 2 research 41 4.1 Introduction 41 4.2 Understanding the 4TWh Benchmark Target 42 5 The identification of strategic areas for onshore wind 47 5.1 Introduction 47 5.2 Methodology 47 5.3 Part A - Preliminary screening for strategic areas 49 5.4 Part B – Refinement of strategic areas 66 5.5 Results 70 6 Testing and validation of Strategic Areas 73 6.1 Introduction 73 6.2 Influence of other existing wind farms. 73 6.3 Landscape Capacity and Sensitivity 76 6.4 Landscape and Visual Effects upon nationally designated sites / features 80 6.5 Higher Wind Speeds 84 6.6 Summary of testing and validation of strategic areas 86 6.7 Determining the potential energy yield from the strategic areas 87 6.8 Overall Summary 90 Part D– Conclusions and Recommendations 91 7 Conclusions 92 8 Recommendations 93 Bibliography and References 94 APPENDICES Appendix A: Offshore Wind and the Planning Process Appendix B: Review of minor or long-term Renewable Energy Technologies Appendix C: Grid Considerations Study Appendix D: Cumulative landscape impact guidance Appendix E: Landscape Capacity/ Sensitive Guidance Appendix F: Visibility and Visual Effects Guidance Appendix G: Review of Multi-criteria Analysis Appendix H: Report on the development of the GIS Appendix I: Wildlands Appendix J: Initial Guidance to Local Planning Authorities on the treatment of the strategic areas Submission Reference 115399 Description Final Issue Prepared by Reviewed by Approved by Name Simon Power Janette Shaw Simon Power Initials Date Welsh Assembly Government Facilitating Planning for Renewable Energy in Wales: Meeting the Target Final Report - Research Contracts 105/2002 and 269/2003 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Background The Welsh Assembly Government provides planning guidance on renewable energy in the form of a Technical Advice Note (TAN 8: Renewable Energy). The current version of this document is now eight years old and the process is underway to update and re-issue it; at time of finalisation of this research it is envisaged a Consultation Draft of a revised TAN 8 will be issued in late Summer 2004. This report is the result of research commissioned by the Welsh Assembly Government to assist it with the re- drafting and implementation of the updated TAN 8. Arup and its sub-consultants were appointed in September 2002 to undertake the research. The research was commissioned in two phases. The objective of the first phase was to “review available information, techniques, research and projects and from it develop a decision support tool for TAN 8 to assist local planning authorities in providing for renewable energy”. The first phase (Stage 1) research lasted 9 months and its outputs were generally inconclusive. The team succeeded however in the following: • Bringing closer together the members of the steering panel for the research (also the technical advice group for the re-drafting of the TAN) and focussing in on the substantive issues that the TAN and the group needed to address. • Scoping the renewable energy technologies that the TAN, and hence the ‘planning tool’, had to address. The conclusions were that onshore wind energy represented the only technology that required some form of ‘planning tool’. • Understanding the renewable energy technology mix that was most likely to come forward over the next six years; this was concluded as comprising mostly onshore wind. • Identifying the planning constraints applicable to onshore wind energy development in Wales; together with a broad understanding of their relative weight in the decision making process. • Developing a Geographic Information System (GIS) during the Stage 1 research to store and map spatial constraint data. This was used to understand the influence that various environmental designations might have on the spatial planning of onshore wind energy developments in Wales. The broad conclusions of Stage 1 were that leaving local authorities in isolation to plan for renewable energy (with or without a ‘planning tool’) was unlikely to allow Wales to meet its wider obligations with respect to national and international carbon dioxide reduction. It was also considered that the degree of environmental assets present in Wales is such that if they are all to remain unaffected by renewable energy developments then very few further projects would be likely to be developed without a significant change in approach in the planning system. As such the Stage 1 research had been a useful exercise, but it was clear further work was required if the TAN 8 document was to facilitate renewable energy effectively and achieve the Assembly Government’s renewable energy target of 4 Terrawatt hours by 2010 (just over 10% of current electricity production). Given the conclusions of the Stage 1 research and the wider economic situation relating to the development of renewable energy technologies in UK, it was inevitable that the major proportion of this target would be delivered by onshore wind energy developments. The Welsh Assembly Government therefore took the view that there was a need to plan for between 800 –1000 Megawatts of installed capacity of onshore wind (some 400-600 additional turbines approximately) by 2010 if there was to be a realistic chance of achieving the 4TWh target. Arup were therefore appointed in April 2004 to undertake a second phase of research (Stage 2). Arup 7 July 2004 H:\MEETING THE TARGET\WINDFARM FINAL REPORT 21-09-04.DOC Page 1 Welsh Assembly Government Facilitating Planning for Renewable Energy in Wales: Meeting the Target Final Report - Research Contracts 105/2002 and 269/2003 The brief for this second stage was to build upon the results of the Stage 1 research and provide a map for Wales that identifies ‘strategic search areas’ capable of delivering the Welsh Assembly Governments Renewable energy target of 4 Terrawatt hours by 2010. The search areas were needed to accommodate (as a minimum) 800 Megawatts of installed onshore wind capacity by 2010. Methodology Arup and its sub-consultants developed further the GIS established during the Stage 1 research contract in accordance with the following methodology: a) An initial screening exercise - ‘absolute’ and ‘variable’ environmental and practical constraint data were gathered and mapped. To these were added the outputs from a separate study of the capacity of the electric distribution network in Wales to accommodate distributed generation from renewable energy development. The results allowed the elimination of several broad zones of Wales from the available land for strategic areas. Spare electrical capacity sufficient to accommodate large-scale onshore wind energy developments was shown to be scarce and unevenly distributed. Without the implementation of planned improvements to the network by 2010/2015 in mid- and north-Wales, there would not be sufficient gird capacity to allow achievement of the 4 Terrawatt hour target. b) A refinement exercise – the areas which ‘fell-through’ the initial screening exercise were subject to a further more detailed review at 1:50 000 scale in which more site-specific constraints (such as the presence or absence of isolated properties, land availability and access) were considered. c) Testing and validation – In order to inform the subsequent debate about the strategic areas arising from the results of a) and b) above, the draft areas were subject to a further review stage. In this, the derived areas were examined with respect to visibility from National Parks/Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty/National Trails, visibility of other existing (or committed) wind farms, landscapes likely to be ‘wild’ in character and higher wind speeds. The strategic areas were also subject to a capacity exercise, in which likely scale of developments possible in each was determined (to +/- 50 Megawatts). This was felt to be an important part of conveying the magnitude of development that was required in some areas in order to meet the 2010 target. Results The result of the analysis was the derivation of seven strategic areas for large-scale onshore wind energy development in Wales as shown on the Figure overleaf. These are: A - Denbigh Moors (200 Megawatt capacity) B - Carno (200 Megawatt capacity) C - Llandinam East (100 Megawatt capacity) D - Nant-y-Moch (100 Megawatt capacity) E - Pontardawe (100 Megawatt capacity) F - Glyncorrwg (350 Megawatt capacity) G - Brechfa Forest (150 Megawatt capacity) Arup 7 July 2004 H:\MEETING THE TARGET\WINDFARM FINAL REPORT 21-09-04.DOC Page 2 Welsh Assembly Government Facilitating Planning for Renewable Energy in Wales: Meeting the Target Final Report - Research Contracts 105/2002 and 269/2003 In total a potential capacity for up to about 1200 Megawatts of onshore wind energy generation was identified to allow for some flexibility through consultation and possible site-specific issues within the strategic areas. The implications for Wales of the strategic areas for onshore wind are significant.