Political Transition Monitoring in Nepal, 2009-2014 Final Report Nepal CONTENTS Foreword ........................................................................................................................................... 2 Executive Summary ......................................................................................................................... 4 Political History .................................................................................................................... 4 Transition-Monitoring Project .............................................................................................. 6 Overview of Methodology .................................................................................................... 7 Political Context ............................................................................................................................... 13 Historical Background .......................................................................................................... 13 The Peace Process and the 2008 Constituent Assembly Election......................................... 14 The Constitution-Drafting Process and the 2013 Constituent Assembly Election ............... 15 Timeline of Key Events ........................................................................................................ 19 Political Transition Monitoring in Nepal ....................................................................................... 23 Goals and Project Development ............................................................................................ 23 Methodology and Challenges ............................................................................................... 26 Project Achievements ........................................................................................................... 40 Lessons Learned ................................................................................................................... 45 Key Observation Findings ............................................................................................................... 47 Peace Process and Constitution Drafting .............................................................................. 47 Voter Registration ................................................................................................................. 61 The 2013 Constituent Assembly Election ............................................................................. 63 Key Findings ......................................................................................................................... 64 Conclusions and Recommendations ............................................................................................... 66 Appendix A: Acknowledgments ..................................................................................................... 70 Appendix B: Carter Center Nepal Staff 2009–2014 ..................................................................... 72 Appendix C: Key Terms and Abbreviations ................................................................................. 74 Appendix D: The 2008 Constituent Assembly Election Observation Findings .......................... 75 Appendix E: Letters of Invitation................................................................................................... 78 Appendix F: Comprehensive List of Reports and Statements ..................................................... 83 Appendix G: Sample Observation Forms and Questions ............................................................ 85 The Carter Center at a Glance ....................................................................................................... 90 1 FOREWORD I am pleased to share this report on the Carter Center’s work to support Nepal’s political transition process. Since our first visit to Nepal in 1985, Rosalynn and I have followed the country’s development closely. It has been our privilege to observe Nepal’s efforts toward sustainable peace and inclusive democracy and to encourage continued progress. This transition has created a significant opportunity for the country’s future peace and prosperity and raised hopes among the Nepali public. While there have been many important achievements, much remains to be done. There have been two successful elections, in 2008 and 2013, both of which were followed by peaceful transfers of power. The ceasefire agreement signed in May 2006 was largely respected, and after several years in which the Nepal Army was confined to its barracks and Maoist forces to cantonments, the majority of former Maoist combatants appear to have retired while a smaller number were integrated into the national armed forces per the Comprehensive Peace Agreement. Political violence has decreased from the initial postconflict period of 2006–2009. At the same time, there are many outstanding commitments in the Comprehensive Peace Agreement and subsequent agreements that have yet to be completed, such as the drafting of a new constitution, continued security sector reform, transitional justice, and land return and reform. The country’s political leaders have struggled to reach broadly acceptable compromises on key constitutional issues, leading to lengthy periods of deadlock, a constitutional crisis in May 2012, and a restarting of the process in early 2014. The constitution drafting, originally envisioned to last only two years, is now in its sixth year. It is understandable that issues such as federalism and the structure of the government, both of which will deeply influence Nepal’s future course, should be handled thoughtfully and compromises not rushed for the sake of political expediency. It took the United States over a decade and two attempts to arrive at the constitution we now hold dear. Nonetheless, Nepal’s political leaders now should be prepared to work in a dedicated manner to resolve these issues and reach settlements that will best serve the public interest. It is my hope that they will be able to deliver a new democratic constitution within a reasonable time frame, reaching sustainable compromises around inclusion and governance. Nepal’s leaders should think about the long-term implications of their choices and seek to put Nepal forward as an example for the region and the world. As Nepal moves forward, I hope that there will be renewed emphasis on economic development and equitable growth in order to increase the resources and opportunities available for all Nepali citizens. At the same time, Nepal needs to put in place systems that promote government accountability to consolidate the gains achieved during the democratic transition. One additional key step will be the holding of local elections, which have not taken place in over 15 years. The Carter Center has supported Nepal’s transition process continuously since 2004. Our work began with a small effort intended to support peaceful resolution of the conflict between the Maoists and the state. We then were invited in 2007 to observe the constituent assembly election process, culminating in elections in April 2008. Following the 2008 election, The Carter Center continued to monitor and report on Nepal’s transition with a focus on implementation of key peace process commitments and the progress of the constitution drafting process. Observers tracked the efforts of the Election Commission of Nepal to create a new, biometric voter register in response to concerns from The Carter Center and other organizations about the 2008 voter list. 2 These efforts marked new ground for The Carter Center. Our continued presence in Nepal allowed us to present to senior political, government, and civil society leaders an impartial reporting of views from the local level about key issues of concern in the peace and constitution-drafting processes and to share this information with the international community. In doing so, we learned important lessons that we hope to bring to our work in other countries. Chief among these is the value of long-term, local-level observation in order to deeply understand conflict dynamics and triggers and to provide information to policy makers at the national level on sensitive issues. All of these lessons are explored more deeply throughout this report, which also presents a thorough accounting of our project methodology, our main findings, and the challenges we faced as well as areas to focus on in the future. It is my hope that this document will serve as a useful tool not only for the Carter Center’s future activities but also for other organizations, civil society members, researchers, policy makers, and others interested in learning more about the project. Our work in Nepal would not have been possible without generous support from the United States Agency for International Development, the United Kingdom’s Department for International Development, and the governments of Norway and Denmark. Rosalynn, I, and our staff in Atlanta and Nepal extend our deepest thanks for this assistance. In early 2014, The Carter Center closed its offices in Nepal. Although there remain difficult issues to address, I am confident that Nepal will handle these challenges through discussion and compromise. I am proud of the work we have done and grateful for the support we have received from the many Nepalis who have welcomed and worked with us over the years. We will continue to follow developments in Nepal closely and will try, where possible, to support future