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Inception Report December 2011

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Inception Report December 2011 Government of Maharashtra Hydrology Project II Water Resources Department IBRD Loan No: 4749-IN Real Time Streamflow Forecasting and Reservoir Operation System for Krishna and Bhima River Basins in Maharashtra (RTSF & ROS) Inception Report December 2011 DHI (India) Water & Environment Pvt. Ltd. Real Time Streamflow Forecasting and Reservoir DHI (India) Water & Operation System for Krishna and Bhima River Environment Pvt Ltd rd Basins in Maharashtra (RTSF & ROS) 3 Floor, NSIC Bhawan, Okhla Industrial Estate New Delhi 11 00 20 Inception Report India December 2011 Tel:+9111 47034500 +91 11 4703 4500 Fax:+911147034501 +91 11 4703 4501 [email protected] www.dhigroup.com Client Client’s representative Chief Engineer, Planning & Hydrology Superintending Engineer Project Project No Real Time Streamflow Forecasting and Reservoir Operation System for Krishna and Bhima River Basins in 63800247 Maharashtra (RTSF & ROS) Authors Date: Guna Paudyal 10 December 2011 Finn Hansen Dhananjay Pandit Approved by Hans G. Enggrob 01 Inception report (based on comments from Client & other GNP HGE 10.12.11 stakeholders) Revision Description By Checked Approved Date Key words Classification Real Time, Streamflow, Flood, Forecasting, Open Reservoir Operation, Forecast Models, Hydrology, Hydraulics, River Basin, Capacity Building Internal Proprietary Distribution No of copies Client: 15 DHI: PDF file Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF&ROS List of Acronyms and Abbreviations BSD Basin Simulation Division CWC Central Water Commission DA Data Assimilation DAS Data Acquisition System DEM Digital Elevation Model DSS Decision Support System FMO Flood meteorological Office (of IMD) GIS Geographic Information System GMRBA Godavari Marathwada River Basin Agency GMS Geostationary Meteorological Satellite GoI Government of India GoM Government of Maharashtra GPRS General Packet Radio Service GSM Global System for Mobile Communications HD Hydrodynamic HIS Hydrological Information system HP-II Hydrology Project Phase II IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development IMD Indian Meteorological Department KRBA Konkan River Basin Agency MERI Maharashtra Engineering Research Institute MKRBA Maharashtra Krishna River Basin Agency MODIS Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer MoWR Ministry of Water Resources NIH National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee NCMRWF National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting NRSA National Remote Sensing Organisation NWP Numerical Weather Prediction QA Quality Assurance QAP Quality Assurance Plan QC Quality Control QPF Quantitative Precipitation Forecast RMC Regional Meteorological Centre (of IMD) ROS Reservoir Operation System RR Rainfall-Runoff Inception Report i RTSF&ROS Krishna & Bhima River Basins RS Remote Sensing RTDAS Real Time Data Acquisition System RTDSS Real Time Decision Support System RTSF Real Time Streamflow Forecasting SAR Synthetic Aperture Radar SRTM Shuttle Radar Topography Mission TKRBA Tapi Khandesh River Basin Agency VRBA Vidarbha River Basin Agency WALMI Water and Land Management Institute WB World Bank WRD Water Resources Department ii Inception Report Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF&ROS Table of Contents List of Acronyms and Abbreviations ............................................................. i EXECUTIVE SUMMARY……………………………………………...VI 1 INTRODUCTION………………………………………………….…..1 1.1 Background .............................................................................................. 1 1.2 Krishna and Bhima River Basins .......................................................... 2 1.2.1 Krishna River Basin ..................................................................................................... 2 1.2.2 Bhima River Basin ...................................................................................................... 4 1.2.3 Flood Prone Area ......................................................................................................... 4 2 PROJECT OBJECTIVES, OUTPUTS & ACTIVITIES……………6 2.1 Objectives ................................................................................................. 6 2.2 Outputs ..................................................................................................... 6 2.3 Activities / Tasks ...................................................................................... 7 3 PROGRESS OF INCEPTION PHASE ACTIVITIES………………9 3.1 Summary of Progress made during the Inception phase .................... 9 3.2 Description of Progress ........................................................................... 9 3.2.1 Task 1.1 Review current forecasting & reservoir operation ........................................ 9 3.2.2 Task 1.2 Identify the needs of WRD and stakeholders .............................................. 20 3.2.3 Task 1.3 Identify and assess sources of weather forecasts and flow forecasting and reservoir operation tools ...................................................................................................... 25 3.2.4 Task-1.4 Review available data and, the RTDAS network and identify critical gaps and recommend strategies to fill these ................................................................................ 30 3.2.5 Task-1.5 Define options and scenarios for optimal multiple reservoir operation ...... 36 3.2.6 Task 1.6 Review institutional capacity of WRD, and recommend improvements for human resource development, and facilities for effective functioning ............................... 39 4 METHODOLOGY AND APPROACH .................................................. 40 4.1 Knowledge Base and Management System ........................................ 40 4.1.1 Design and Development of the Knowledge Base ..................................................... 40 4.1.2 Design and Development of the Knowledge Base Management System .................. 41 4.2 Streamflow and Forecasting Models ................................................... 42 4.2.1 Role of Mathematical Models .................................................................................... 42 4.2.2 Flow Forecasting ........................................................................................................ 44 4.2.3 Development of Simulation Models .......................................................................... 48 4.2.4 Boundary Conditions ................................................................................................. 57 4.2.5 Integration with Real-time Data ................................................................................. 57 Inception Report iii RTSF&ROS Krishna & Bhima River Basins 4.3 Reservoir Operation Guidance System ............................................... 60 4.3.1 Implementation of Existing Operation Rules ............................................................ 60 4.3.2 Optimisation of Existing Operation Rules ................................................................. 60 4.3.3 Operational Guidance System ................................................................................... 61 4.4 Communication and Information Management System ................... 61 4.4.1 Communication Strategy and protocols ..................................................................... 62 4.4.2 Web Portal ................................................................................................................. 63 4.4.3 The Alert Module ....................................................................................................... 65 5 CAPACITY BUILDING……………………………………………...66 5.1 Introduction ........................................................................................... 66 5.2 Water Resources Department (WRD) ................................................ 66 5.2.1 Planning & Hydrology ............................................................................................... 66 5.2.2 The Basin Simulation Division (BSD) ...................................................................... 68 5.2.3 Training Needs assessment ........................................................................................ 72 5.3 Institutional Development Plan ........................................................... 72 5.3.1 Proposed Setup and Functions of BSD ...................................................................... 72 5.3.2 Operational Control Room ......................................................................................... 74 5.3.3 Capacity Building and Training Plan during the Project ........................................... 76 5.3.4 On-the-job training .................................................................................................... 76 5.3.5 Training Courses ........................................................................................................ 77 5.3.6 Workshops ................................................................................................................. 80 5.3.7 International technical training cum study visits ....................................................... 81 5.3.8 International Study Tour ............................................................................................ 82 6 PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION PLAN…………………………...83 6.1 Activity Schedule ................................................................................... 83 6.2 Project Management ............................................................................. 86 6.2.1 Project Organisation .................................................................................................
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