Government of Hydrology Project II Water Resources Department IBRD Loan No: 4749-IN

Real Time Streamflow Forecasting and Reservoir Operation System for Krishna and Basins in Maharashtra (RTSF & ROS)

Inception Report December 2011

DHI () Water & Environment Pvt. Ltd.

Real Time Streamflow Forecasting and Reservoir DHI (India) Water & Operation System for Krishna and Bhima River Environment Pvt Ltd rd Basins in Maharashtra (RTSF & ROS) 3 Floor, NSIC Bhawan, Okhla Industrial Estate New Delhi 11 00 20 Inception Report India

December 2011 Tel:+9111 47034500 +91 11 4703 4500 Fax:+911147034501 +91 11 4703 4501 [email protected] www.dhigroup.com

Client Client’s representative

Chief Engineer, Planning & Hydrology Superintending Engineer

Project Project No Real Time Streamflow Forecasting and Reservoir Operation System for Krishna and Bhima River Basins in 63800247 Maharashtra (RTSF & ROS) Authors Date: Guna Paudyal 10 December 2011 Finn Hansen Dhananjay Pandit Approved by Hans G. Enggrob

01 Inception report (based on comments from Client & other GNP HGE 10.12.11 stakeholders) Revision Description By Checked Approved Date Key words Classification Real Time, Streamflow, Flood, Forecasting, Open Reservoir Operation, Forecast Models, Hydrology, Hydraulics, River Basin, Capacity Building Internal

Proprietary

Distribution No of copies Client: 15 DHI: PDF file

Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF&ROS

List of Acronyms and Abbreviations

BSD Basin Simulation Division CWC Central Water Commission DA Data Assimilation DAS Data Acquisition System DEM Digital Elevation Model DSS Decision Support System FMO Flood meteorological Office (of IMD) GIS Geographic Information System GMRBA Godavari Marathwada River Basin Agency GMS Geostationary Meteorological Satellite GoI Government of India GoM Government of Maharashtra GPRS General Packet Radio Service GSM Global System for Mobile Communications HD Hydrodynamic HIS Hydrological Information system HP-II Hydrology Project Phase II IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development IMD Indian Meteorological Department KRBA River Basin Agency MERI Maharashtra Engineering Research Institute MKRBA Maharashtra Basin Agency MODIS Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer MoWR Ministry of Water Resources NIH National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee NCMRWF National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting NRSA National Remote Sensing Organisation NWP Numerical Weather Prediction QA Quality Assurance QAP Quality Assurance Plan QC Quality Control QPF Quantitative Precipitation Forecast RMC Regional Meteorological Centre (of IMD) ROS Reservoir Operation System RR Rainfall-Runoff

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RS Remote Sensing RTDAS Real Time Data Acquisition System RTDSS Real Time Decision Support System RTSF Real Time Streamflow Forecasting SAR Synthetic Aperture Radar SRTM Shuttle Radar Topography Mission TKRBA Tapi Khandesh River Basin Agency VRBA Vidarbha River Basin Agency WALMI Water and Land Management Institute WB World Bank WRD Water Resources Department

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Table of Contents List of Acronyms and Abbreviations ...... i EXECUTIVE SUMMARY……………………………………………...VI 1 INTRODUCTION………………………………………………….…..1 1.1 Background ...... 1 1.2 Krishna and Bhima River Basins ...... 2 1.2.1 Krishna River Basin ...... 2 1.2.2 Bhima River Basin ...... 4 1.2.3 Flood Prone Area ...... 4 2 PROJECT OBJECTIVES, OUTPUTS & ACTIVITIES……………6 2.1 Objectives ...... 6 2.2 Outputs ...... 6 2.3 Activities / Tasks ...... 7 3 PROGRESS OF INCEPTION PHASE ACTIVITIES………………9 3.1 Summary of Progress made during the Inception phase ...... 9 3.2 Description of Progress ...... 9 3.2.1 Task 1.1 Review current forecasting & reservoir operation ...... 9 3.2.2 Task 1.2 Identify the needs of WRD and stakeholders ...... 20 3.2.3 Task 1.3 Identify and assess sources of weather forecasts and flow forecasting and reservoir operation tools ...... 25 3.2.4 Task-1.4 Review available data and, the RTDAS network and identify critical gaps and recommend strategies to fill these ...... 30 3.2.5 Task-1.5 Define options and scenarios for optimal multiple reservoir operation ...... 36 3.2.6 Task 1.6 Review institutional capacity of WRD, and recommend improvements for human resource development, and facilities for effective functioning ...... 39 4 METHODOLOGY AND APPROACH ...... 40 4.1 Knowledge Base and Management System ...... 40 4.1.1 Design and Development of the Knowledge Base ...... 40 4.1.2 Design and Development of the Knowledge Base Management System ...... 41 4.2 Streamflow and Forecasting Models ...... 42 4.2.1 Role of Mathematical Models ...... 42 4.2.2 Flow Forecasting ...... 44 4.2.3 Development of Simulation Models ...... 48 4.2.4 Boundary Conditions ...... 57 4.2.5 Integration with Real-time Data ...... 57

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4.3 Reservoir Operation Guidance System ...... 60 4.3.1 Implementation of Existing Operation Rules ...... 60 4.3.2 Optimisation of Existing Operation Rules ...... 60 4.3.3 Operational Guidance System ...... 61 4.4 Communication and Information Management System ...... 61 4.4.1 Communication Strategy and protocols ...... 62 4.4.2 Web Portal ...... 63 4.4.3 The Alert Module ...... 65 5 CAPACITY BUILDING……………………………………………...66 5.1 Introduction ...... 66 5.2 Water Resources Department (WRD) ...... 66 5.2.1 Planning & Hydrology ...... 66 5.2.2 The Basin Simulation Division (BSD) ...... 68 5.2.3 Training Needs assessment ...... 72 5.3 Institutional Development Plan ...... 72 5.3.1 Proposed Setup and Functions of BSD ...... 72 5.3.2 Operational Control Room ...... 74 5.3.3 Capacity Building and Training Plan during the Project ...... 76 5.3.4 On-the-job training ...... 76 5.3.5 Training Courses ...... 77 5.3.6 Workshops ...... 80 5.3.7 International technical training cum study visits ...... 81 5.3.8 International Study Tour ...... 82 6 PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION PLAN…………………………...83 6.1 Activity Schedule ...... 83 6.2 Project Management ...... 86 6.2.1 Project Organisation ...... 86 6.3 Quality Assurance ...... 90 6.3.1 Quality Management at DHI ...... 90 6.3.2 Quality Assurance Plan ...... 90 6.4 Requirements from WRD ...... 91 6.4.1 Data Collection and Processing ...... 91 6.4.2 RTDAS ...... 91

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6.4.3 Coordination with other stakeholders ...... 91 6.4.4 Dissemination of River Flow and Flood Forecasts ...... 91 6.4.5 Establish Operational Control Room and RT Data Centre ...... 91 6.4.6 Workshops and Training ...... 92 6.4.7 Engagement of BSD staff with the Consultant ...... 92 6.5 Project Monitoring ...... 92 7 REFERENCES………………………………………………………..93 APPENDIX A.1: REVIEW OF PAST FLOODS………………………...95 APPENDIX A.2: TYPICAL FLOOD INFORMATION FORM THE FLOOD CONTROL CELL, WRD …………….97 APPENDIX A.3: KOYANA RESERVOIR OPERATION SYSTEM…105 APPENDIX A.4: GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF RESERVOIR OPERATION…………………………………………..109 APPENDIX B: INCEPTION WORKSHOP……………………………117 APPENDIX C: LIST OF DAMS…………………………………………123 APPENDIX D: LIST OF MEETINGS AND CONSULTATIONS…….125 APPENDIX E: DATABASE DOCUMENTATION…………………….128

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Project “Consultancy services for the implementation of streamflow forecasting and reservoir operations for Krishna and Bhima River Basins in Maharashtra” commenced with the opening of the project office in Pune on the auspicious day of Ganesh Chaturthi on 17th August 2011. DHI (India) Water and Environment are the Consultants assigned by the Water Resources Department of Government of Maharasthra, India. The assignment is scheduled to be completed in 18 months with an extended technical support period of two years.

The Inception Report presents the progress made during the first three months planned as Inception Phase in which all the activities under Task 1 as stipulated in the contract have been carried out. Based on review and needs assessment, a capacity building program has been developed. The capacity building is an integrated approach comprising on-the-job training, formal training, international technical training and study visits and international study tour.

The Draft Inception Report was submitted on November 11, 2011 for review and comments by WRD and other stakeholders. Useful suggestions and comments were received from WRD and from other stakeholders. This final version incorporates the comments and suggestions.

As part of stakeholder consultation, an Inception Workshop was organised on December 7, 2011 to further consolidate the needs assessment process. The Workshop was well attended and was very participatory in nature. The Proceedings of the Workshop are reported separately. However key recommendations are presented in Appendix B, which are considered in this final version of the Inception Report.

The Report also presents an updated approach and methodology, which includes knowledge base and knowledge management, the modelling system, the forecasting system and the reservoir operation guidance. Three types of simulation models are being developed for the two basins: Rainfall-Runoff Model (NAM), River basin water resources management model (MIKEBASIN), and hydrodynamic model (MIKE11). The simulation models are the basic engines of real time streamflow forecasting, flood forecasting and reservoir operation in the basins. vi Inception Report Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF&ROS

The project implementation plan is prepared in line with the milestones specified in the TOR and the provisions in the Contract. A few critical paths have been identified, which are related to the availability of data in time. These are availability of historical data of the basins, survey of new cross sections in the Krishna and Bhima rivers and their tributaries, and the completion of the Real Time Data Acquisition System (RTDAS).

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Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF&ROS

1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background The geographical area of Maharashtra state is 308,000 Km2. Major river basins in the state are the Krishna river with its major tributary as Bhima, Godavari, Tapi and the West flowing rivers of Konkan strip (Figure 1.1). Maharashtra receives rainfall from both south-west and north-east monsoon. The state has very highly variable rainfall ranging from 6000 mm in upper catchments to 400 mm in shadow areas of lower catchments. Majority of rainfall mainly occurs in a four months period between June to September with the number of rainy days varying between 40 to 100. The state experiences flash floods particularly in including Krishna and Upper Bhima basins. For instance, Sangli, Satara and Kolhapur districts in Krishna Basin and Pune and districts in Bhima basin experienced severe flood several times during recent decade.

Figure 1-1 River Basins of Maharashtra The Water Resources Department (WRD) of Government of Maharashtra (GoM) is entrusted with the surface water resources planning, development and management. A large number of major, medium and minor water resources development projects (reservoirs and weirs) have been constructed in Maharashtra. Though, the reservoirs in Maharashtra are not specifically provided with flood cushion, they have moderated flood peaks to considerable extent by proper reservoir operations. The reservoirs are multipurpose including hydropower, irrigation, domestic and industrial uses and are operated with rigid schedules as single entities based on the historical hydro-meteorological data and experience gained. These methods are often not adequate for establishing optimal operational decisions, especially where integrated operation of multiple reservoirs for flood management is contemplated. In addition, manual data observation and transmission results in a considerable time lag, between data observed in field and its communication to decision making level which sometime leaves little time, for flood forecasts. The Ministry of Water Resources (MoWR), Government of India (GoI) has initiated Hydrology Project Phase II (HP-II), which is a follow-on to the concluded Hydrology Project-I (HP-I:1995-2003). During HP-I, the Hydrological Information

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System (HIS) was developed for the entire state of Maharashtra and the data is monitored manually 1-2 times a day. Under HP-II project, real time decision support system inflow forecasting in Bhakra Beas system and Decision Support System (DSS) for water resources planning and management are being developed. The Upper Bhima basin has been selected as a pilot basin for latter one i.e. DSS (planning). In addition, Government of Maharashtra has proposed to upgrade the existing HIS with real time data acquisition system (RTDAS) for Krishna and Bhima basins. Simultaneously, it is proposed to develop a real time streamflow forecasting (RTSF) and reservoir operation system (ROS) in Krishna and Bhima river basins to manage the floods and operate reservoirs optimally for multiple uses. It is envisaged that the system would facilitate reservoir operators to act on time and prepare stakeholders for the floods. The forecast of river flow and mapping of flood zone will help in taking the decisions such as evacuation of the likely affecting areas well in advance. In addition, the reservoir operation system would facilitate the optimization of the storages for ensuring flood cushion and improving agricultural productivity. 1.2 Krishna and Bhima River Basins The Krishna River Basin, of which Bhīma is a major tributary, covers an area of 258,000 sq.km (nearly 8% of India) in three large states—, Maharashtra, . Maharashtra covers 69,967 km2 of Bhima & Krishna basin area (Figure 1.2). As Bhima joins Krishna in Karnataka, these two rivers basins are generally treated as separate basins. This part is one of the fastest, economically growing regions and hence there is an ever growing competition for water among different sectors viz. agriculture, industries and domestic users. There are 46 reservoirs in Bhima & Krishna out of which 30 are Major Projects and 16 are Medium Projects.

1.2.1 Krishna River Basin The river Krishna which is one of the major rivers of Maharashtra covering an area of 21,114 km2 in Maharashtra is 282 km long. Krishna originates from in and flows through Satara, Sangli and Kolhapur Districts. It mainly flows from north to south. Three of its main tributaries namely, Koyna, Warna, Panchaganga flow from west to east and the fourth main tributary Yerala flows from east to west. There are 19 reservoirs in Krishna basin, out of which 10 are major projects viz. Dhom, Kanher, Urmodi, Tarali, Koyna, Warna, Radhanagari, Dudhganga, Tembhu Barrage and Satpewadi Barrage. The 9 medium projects are Dhom Balkawadi, Mahu, Uttarmand, Morna(Gureghar), Wang, Kadvi, Kasari, Kumbhi and Dhamni. Figure 1.3 shows locations of reservoirs in the Krishna Basin.

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Figure 1-2 The Krishna and Bhima River Basins in Maharashtra

Figure 1-3 Locations of Reservoirs in the Krishna & Bhima River Basins

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1.2.2 Bhima River Basin The Bhima River rises from Bhimashankar near on the western side of the Western Ghats known as Sahyadri hill ranges at an altitude of about 945 m above the sea level. The Bhima River flows in the southeast direction for 745 km covering the states of Maharashtra and Karnataka. The Bhima River drains an area of 48,853 km2 in Maharashtra. The length of Bhima in Maharashtra is 451 km and it joins Krishna on the Karnataka – Andhra Pradesh boundary near Kudlu in Raichur District. In the course of the journey it meets many small rivers. The major tributaries of this river around Pune are Kundali, Ghod, Bhama, Indrayani, Mula, Mutha and Pawana. The Indrayani, Mula, Mutha and Pawana flow through Pune and city. The major tributaries of Bhima in Solapur are Chandani, Kamini, Moshi, Bori, Sina, Man, Bhogwati and Nira. The Bhima meets the in Narsinghpur in taluka in . The last 298 km of its course is in Karnataka where it merges with the Krishna River. The banks of the Bhima River are densely populated and form a fertile agricultural land. The river also causes floods due to heavy rainfall it receives during the monsoon. Bhima basin has 27 reservoirs out of which 20 are major projects and 7 are medium projects. The major projects are Pimpalgaon Joga, Manikdoh, Yedgaon, Wadaj, Dimbe, Chaskaman, Bhama Askheda, Pawana, Mulshi, Temghar, Warasgaon, Panshet, Khadakwasla, Ghod, Ujjani, Sina-Kolegaon, Gunjawani, Bhatghar, Vir and Nira Deoghar. The medium projects are Chilewadi, Kalmodi, Andhra, Wadiwale, Kasar Sai, Sina (Nimgaon) and Nazare. Figure 1.3 shows the locations of reservoirs in the Bhima Basin.

1.2.3 Flood Prone Area Some areas of the Krishna and Bhima basins suffer from floods. Figure 1.4 shows reaches of Krishna and Bhima and their tributaries which are flooded. The years 2005 and 2006 observed heavy floods in the basins. Due to heavy rains in the catchment of Krishna, Warna and, Panchganga rivers created flood havocs in Sangli, Satara and Kolhapur districts in July 2005. Sangli city is one of the most flood prone areas in the Krishna basin. Pandharpur city on Bhima basin is another flood prone area. Some areas in Pune city gets flooded from the Mutha and Mula rivers.

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Figure 1-4 Flood Prone Reaches (in red) in Krishna and Bhima Basins

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2 PROJECT OBJECTIVES, OUTPUTS & ACTIVITIES 2.1 Objectives The objective of this consultancy is to equip the Water Resources Department of Government of Maharashtra with a web-based real time streamflow monitoring and forecasting system and reservoir operation system for flood management in the Krishna and Bhima basins in Maharashtra. The system will be used to optimize releases from reservoirs for multiple uses throughout the year, in addition to providing a system to better manage floods. This will build upon the existing hydrological information system (HIS) and eventually on a real time data acquisition system (RTDAS) telemetry network that is being developed in parallel. 2.2 Outputs The principal outputs in relation to the forecasting and operation guidance system will be: (1) A hydrological Knowledge Base comprising:

 Historical data from the existing Hydrologic Information System

 Historical and real time satellite images

 Real time weather forecasts

 Real Time Data Acquisition System

 Knowledge Management System for ease of access, display and maintenance of the knowledge base

(2) A Forecasting System for reservoir, river and flood plain levels and flows efficiently utilising weather forecasts, real time satellite data and the RTDAS

(3) A Guidance System for integrated optimal reservoir operations for flood and water resources management year round

(4) A web based interactive Communication System allowing access to the Knowledge Base, and the Forecasting and Guidance Systems for WRD offices and stakeholders:

 View historical, real time and forecast data and information in a range of formats – GIS maps, graphs, schematics, reports, etc

 Disseminate the forecasts and reservoir operation guidance in a range of formats tailored to the needs of the users, and over various media including the web and mobile GPRS

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(5) A comprehensive Capacity Building programme for WRD comprising formal training courses, on-the-job training, workshops, study tours and hotline support 2.3 Activities / Tasks The following main tasks are envisaged to be carried out. Each task has associated sub-tasks.

Main task Sub-tasks / activities

Task 1 (1.1)Review current forecasting, reservoir operation, warning dissemination and emergency response Review Current capabilities in the Krishna and Bhima Basins Forecasting and Operational (1.2)Identify the needs of WRD and stakeholders for Capabilities effective water resources and flood management in Krishna and Bhima Basins

(1.3)Identify and assess sources of weather forecasts, and flow forecasting and reservoir operation tools

(1.4)Review available hydro-climatological data and data management systems, the RTDAS network, real time satellite data, and identify critical gaps and recommend strategies to fill these

(1.5)Define options and scenarios for optimal multiple reservoir operation

(1.6)Review institutional capacity of WRD, and recommend improvements for human resource development, and facilities for effective functioning

Task 2 (2.1) Functional specifications for the WRD Krishna- Bhima knowledge base Knowledge Base Development (2.2) Design and develop database management system

(2.3) Develop knowledge base

(2.4) Develop knowledge management system

Task 3 (3.1)Based on the modelling framework set out in Task 1, the modelling system will be established and calibrated Real-Time against historical and current data Streamflow / Flood Forecasting Model (3.2)Through analysis of the model results, critical reaches will be identified for forecasts, as well as the need for additional real time monitoring

(3.3)The modelling system will be integrated with weather

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forecasts, real time satellite data, and the RTDAS

(3.4)Data assimilation will be applied to ensure the maximum information is extracted from the real time data to ensure the best possible forecasts

(3.5)Prepare flood mapping, for critical historical events, and for flood forecasts

Task 4 (4.1)Extend the simulation models with optimisation for water resources and flood management Reservoir Operational (4.2)Establish the operational guidance system for multiple Guidance System multi-purpose reservoir operation

Task 5 (5.1)Develop the Communication Strategy and Protocol supporting information channels and dissemination Communication and Information (5.2)Design and prepare specifications for the Operational Management Control Room, and support procurement arrangements Systems (5.3)Develop the Web Portal to provide access and disseminate information from the Knowledge Base and the RTSF-ROS

Task 6 (6.1)Engage WRD staff in the development of the Streamflow and Reservoir Operation Guidance System Capacity Building and (6.2)Preparation of an overall training programme for WRD staff, comprising training at Indian institutes, and formal courses given by DHI’s specialists

(6.3)Facilitation of Workshops organised by WRD

(6.4)Organisation of international study tours for senior managers of WRD

(6.5)Preparation of operational user and reference manuals, online context dependent help, documented demonstration cases, training materials

(6.6)Technical support, with further training courses and hotline support

(6.7)Preparation of a strategy for long term sustainability and enhancement of the developed system

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3 PROGRESS OF INCEPTION PHASE ACTIVITIES 3.1 Summary of Progress made during the Inception phase The Tor stipulates the tasks shown in Table 3.1 to be carried out during the three months Inception Phase (17 August – 16 November). A summary of progress made against the tasks is also presented below. Table 3.1 Summary of tasks and progress made during the Inception Phase Task Stipulated Tasks Progress No. 1.1 Review current forecasting, reservoir operation, warning completed dissemination and emergency response capabilities in the Krishna and Bhima Basins

1.2 Identify the needs of WRD and stakeholders for completed effective water resources and flood management in Krishna and Bhima Basins 1.3 Identify and assess sources of weather forecasts, and completed flow forecasting and reservoir operation tools

1.4 Review available hydro-climatological data and data completed. management systems, the RTDAS network, real time satellite data, and identify critical gaps and recommend strategies to fill these

1.5 Define options and scenarios for optimal multiple Some of the possible reservoir operation scenarios defined, but the actual scenarios and strategies will be defined during testing and implementation of the system with feedback from stakeholders. 1.6 Review institutional capacity of WRD, and recommend completed. improvements for human resource development, and facilities for effective functioning

3.2 Description of Progress

3.2.1 Task 1.1 Review current forecasting & reservoir operation A review of the current forecasting, reservoir operation and warning dissemination and emergency response has been carried. Most of the review was reported in Monthly Progress Reoprt-1 (September 2011).

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The review is presented in five sections. Supplementary details are provided in Appendix A.1 to A.4.

1. Review of Past Floods, forecasting system and Studies The Government of Maharashtra Water Resources Department constituted a Technical Committee on January 4, 2007 to study the 2005 and 2006 floods of Maharashtra and to recommend measures of efficient reservoir operation and flood forecasting. The report of the technical committee is an extensive one encompassing review of floods, causes, review of hydrological data and reservoir operation systems. On the forecasting systems, the Technical Committee commented that the “gauge-gauge Correlation” method of flood forecasting was inadequate. The Technical Committee identified a need of establishing mathematical models for the river basins in order to provide effective tools for emergency flood management, integrated reservoir operations, use of basin simulation models and real time flood forecasting. On July19, 2011 floods submerged about 30 cars near Bund Garden in Pune due to sudden releases from the Khadakwasala Dam. This was reported in INDIATV (20 July 2011).

Floods were also reported in Kolhapur during the same week.

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Notable floods in the recent past were also observed in 1995 and 1996. It is reported that about 35 villages in the district of Satara are affected by floods every year from . The extent of flooding could be so severe that these villages remain cut off from the rest of the area for about a week. In Solapur district, major flood events were reported during 16-17, August 1983. During this event the discharge at was 3.45 lakh cusecs with a flood level of 508.25m. The corresponding release from was 2.45 lakh cusecs. The discharge at Narsingpur was 2.68 lakh cusecs and at Pandharpur the discharge was 2.94 lakh cusecs with a flood level of 447.60 m. During 14-16 July, 1994, the discharge at Daund was 2.54 lakh cusecs at a flood level of 507.26m, while the release from Ujjani dam was 2.17 lakh cusecs. In the same period the discharge at Narsingpur was 2.38 lakh cusecs and at Pandharpur it was 3.09 lakh cusecs at a flood level of 448.22 m. Another major event occurred at Daund during 25-27 August, 1997, with a discharge of 2.75 lakh cusecs (flood level 507.8m). The release from Ujjani dam was 2.75 lakh cusecs. In the same period, the discharge at Narsingpur was 2.70 lakh cusecs at a level of 462.153 m and at Pandharpur the discharge was 3.093 lakh cusecs at the water level of 449.38 m. The most recent flood events occurred during 3-5 August 2005 and 8-10 August 2006, in which the discharge at Daund was 2.43 lakh cusecs (water level 507.5m) & 2.54 lakh cusecs (water level 507.62m), respectively. The corresponding releases from Ujjani dam were 2.25 and 2.75 lakh cusecs. The discharges at Narsingpur were 2.56 lakh cusecs (water level 461.49 m) & 3.19 lakh cusecs (water level 462.343 m). At Pandharpur the discharges were 3.33 lakh cusecs (water level 449.70 m) & 3.24 lakh cusecs (water level 449.60 m), respectively during the two events. These discharge values need to be validated and appropriate corrections will be applied based on last 5 years data at Pandharpur river GD station.

Figure 3-1 Records of Flood events downstream of Ujjani Dam (Source: Ujjani Control Room) Inception Report 11 RTSF&ROS Krishna & Bhima River Basins

2. Review of Activities of the Flood Control Cell, WRD Pune The consultant together with the Executive Engineer, Basin Simulation Division visited the Flood Control Cell of Water Resources Department in Sinchan Bhawan to review the present set up of flood monitoring and forecasting. For Bhima and Krishna basins, the Krishna Basin Flood Control Cell is established, which collects the reservoir levels, rainfall and spillway discharge for each of the reservoirs twice a day (0700 hrs and 1700 hrs) in normal circumstances and hourly in flood like situation. The data is received by any available means viz. Cell Phones, Wireless, Land Line etc. The Flood Control Cell is under the Executive Engineer, Khadakwasla Irrigation Division. During monsoon (from June to October) three Section Engineers along with four wireless operators manage the cell 24X7 in three shifts. During non-monsoon periods, the wireless operators collect the data. In the control room, the staff from the Police Department are also deployed round the clock to communicate the flood situation to respective police commands in the districts. The collected data is entered into computers and every day at 0800 hrs. Reports are generated and send to the Chief Engineer, Water Resources Pune. The Chief Engineer (SP), Water Resources, Pune and the Superintendenting Engineer, Pune Irrigation Circle. The copy is also sent by Fax to Mantranlaya (Ministry of Water Resources) in Mumbai Flood Unit, Minister of Water Resources, Divisional Commissioner, Pune, SE (CADA), Solapur and Baramati Hostel (Members of Parliament: On demand). All the information on spillway discharges are given to the Police Department. The updated data is also published daily on the website (http://www.punefloodcontrol.com). In case of high releases from dams, the information is provided to concerned corporations/municipal authorizes as well as to the Police for evacuation from low lying areas. The Format of reporting as per the website is given in Appendix A.2.

3. Reservoir Operation During the monsoon period, reservoir operation usually consists of release of water for various uses, considering actual demands and storages available. The release schedules are routinely prepared by the concerned authorities. Since the day to day routine procedure is known to the officials it requires less attention in general for release programmers in fair season. Flood forecasting operations and reservoir operation are physically carried out during rainy season. It is generally seen that during the remaining period (normal period), allied and supporting activities related to reservoir operation/flood forecasting do not get proper attention.

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Maharashtra State Water Policy (July 2003) states that (para 8.0 Flood control and management) an adequate flood cushion shall be provided in water storage projects wherever feasible to facilitate better flood management. The flood control space is provided in the reservoir for storing flood water temporarily in order to reduce peak discharge and to minimize flooding on downstream locations. The official website of WRD (www.mahawrd.org) published daily dam storages during 1st June to 15th October and weekly in the remaining period. Khadakwasla, Panshet, Warasgaon & Temghar Reservoirs A review of the current inflow forecasting and reservoir operation has been made based on a visit to the Khadakwasla, Panshet and Warasgaon reservoir system (Figures 3-2 and 3-3).

Figure 3-2 The Khadakwasla reservoir system

Figure 3-3 An Schematic diagram of the Khadakwasla reservoir operation system

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The visit to these dams on 15th Oct, 2011 and discussions with the Engineers managing these dams revealed that the inflow forecasting is mainly done with water balance method based on the information of rainfall data in catchment area, change in reservoir level, elevation-area-capacity curve, Figure 3-4 A Manual data entry discharge through spillway and system canal/power outlet. The reservoir operators use the approved reservoir schedules for each dam. During rainy season, when the reservoir levels are increasing and rainfall in the catchment also continues, the in-charge of reservoir decides when and how much to release the water from reservoir with the help of guide curves and experience. The information on reservoir releases is sent to Krishna Flood Control Cell in Pune, which compiles data from all the reservoir releases and issues the warnings/reports. Based on the travel time to the flood prone areas in Pune, around 2 hours of lead time is given before releasing the water from reservoir. The reservoir operators opined that the operation of the combined reservoir system would result into an efficient water flood management if information on catchment rainfall, upstream inflows and downstream flood impacts are available in real time. Koyna Reservoir The operation schedule for Koyna reservoir was reviewed based on earlier reports and on the Technical Committee Report of July 2007. A site visit and discussion with Koyna reservoir authorities is planned in the near future. Presently the field officers are estimating the inflows into Koyna reservoir by past experience and established rules based on historical events, like ‘an inch of rain at Mahabaleshwar will result in an inflow of so many cusecs into the Koyna reservoir after six hours’. The reservoir operation schedule for Koyna reservoir is described in Appendix A.3.

Figure 3-5 Koyna Reservoir and other projects

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All the reservoir operation systems in Maharashtra are guided by the Dam Safety Manual (Appendix A.4). Ujjani Reservoir A team of consultants consisting of the Team Leader, Deputy Team Leader and two international modelling experts visited the Ujjani Dam on November 20, 2011 to review the reservoir operation system. Detailed discussions were held with the Engineer in-charge of reservoir operation and other staff at site. The Ujajani Dam office keeps a good record of operation and monitors the reservoir water level in real time.

Ujjani Reservoir is one of the most important reservoirs in Bhima basin in Maharashtra. The reserboir is named as ‘Yeshwant Sagar’ and has the submergence area of 290 km2. The gross storage capacity of the reservoir is 3320 MCM, out of which 1517.19 MCM is live storage and 1803.81 MCM is dead storage. Ujjani project has 2,05,277 ha of command area, out of which, left bank canal irrigates 1,33,332 ha and the right bank irrigates 71,945 ha. The project also has 34,883 ha of area irrigated under lift irrigation schemes. There are 41 radial gates with discharge capacity of 15,717 cumecs. The power generation capacity is 12 MW. The digital water level recorder indicates the level and storage in the reservoir. In addition, the digital water recorders are installed at canal head indicating the level and discharge in the canal.

Inception Report 15 RTSF&ROS Krishna & Bhima River Basins

The information of all 22 reservoirs (including Ujjani) in Bhima basin on live storage, releases from reservoirs through spillway and power outlets, rainfall, and cumulative rainfall are collected daily in the prescribed format by available communication mechanism like telephone, cell phones, SMS, wireless, fax etc. In the flood like situation, this information is collected on hourly basis. The inflow into the reservoir is calculated from the releases from Ghod, Khadakwasla, Chaskaman, Bhma-Askhed, Andhra, Wadiwale, Pawana, Mulshi and Visapur. At Ujjani, the decision to how much and when to release the water depends on current level in Ujjani, discharges from u/s and rainfall. An estimate of travel time from upstream to downstream at the dam site is also used to decide on when to operate the gates. The releases from Ujjani and Gunjavane, Bhatghar, Nira-Deodhar and Vir are used for flood warnings at Pandharpur.

In case of emergency, the flood warnings are send to office of Collector, Disaster management Cell, Police, Municipalities etc. Many flood events in Solapur district, as described in Section 3.2.1, have been associated with releases from the Ujjani Dam. The officials responsible for operation use their experience and judgement. The officials expressed a strong need to have a real time information system and a reservoir operation guide to deal with emergencies as well as to improve the management of the water resources system. They also expressed their desire to be involved in discussions related to development of reservoir operation strategies during the implementation of the RTSF & ROS project.

4. Flood forecasting by CWC and IMD The flood forecasting work of entire Krishna basin is being carried out by Central water Commission (CWC) from its Lower Krishna Division, Hyderabad. However, Kurundwad in Kolhapur district on river Krishna is the station in Maharashtra where forecasts are being issued by CWC.

CWC uses the correlation method for flood forecasting. is the upstream base station on river Krishna for flood forecasting at Kurundwad. The contribution of tributary Warna is taken at Samdoli station. Gauge and Discharge correlation diagrams have been developed with due travel time based on historical data. In addition the Rainfall and Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) for the intermediate catchment is also used to update the forecast. A forecast of 24 hour lead time is calculated and issued to user agencies through telephone/wireless or special messenger.

16 Inception Report Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF&ROS

Rainfall warnings and QPF for the Krishna basin is provided by the Flood Meteorological Office (FMO) of Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), Hyderabad ([email protected] or [email protected]).

IMD has set up ten Flood Meteorological Offices (FMO) located over flood prone areas of the country. FMOs provide necessary meteorological support to the Central Flood Forecasting Divisions of Central Water Commission. These FMOs function under the technical control of Hydromet Division, IMD, Delhi while their administrative control rests with the Regional Meteorological Centers (RMC). During the flood season, FMOs issue daily hydro-meteorological bulletins to Flood Forecasting Divisions of CWC on operational basis. It contains the following items:

i. Quantitative Precipitation Forecast(QPF) in different ranges which are 1 – 10 mm, 11 – 25mm, 26 – 50mm, 51 – 100mm and > 100mm. ii. Prevailing synoptic weather situation in the region iii. Basin wise areal rainfall. iv. Station wise significant rainfall during past 24 hours( > 50mm). v. Heavy rainfall warning in the next 48 hours, if any.

5. Warning dissemination and emergency management The State of Maharashtra has developed a well functioning disaster management system with a coordinated administrative system from the state level through divisions, districts and down to village levels (www.mdmu.maharashtra.gov.in) . Flood warning dissemination and emergency management systems are part of the overall disaster preparedness and management system being practiced by the districts and other authorities.

District Collector, Pune A review meeting was held on November 8, 2011 with Resident Deputy Collector, Shri Anil Pawar, who also holds charge of District Disaster Management Officer for . The meeting was also attended by Shri Ganesh Sonune, UDRR Project, UNDP, Pune Municipal Corporation. It was observed that a well functioning control room is established at the district collector’s office in Pune. The control rooms monitors all disasters, especially floods during the monsoon season and disseminates information to all concerned in an efficient way.

Based on the Disaster Management Act of 2005 and Standard Operating Procedures SOP), each district has prepared a District Disaster Management Plan. Flood prone areas up to village level are identified based on past disasters and well trained human resources are mobilised for preparedness as well as for emergency management. A resource inventory (equipment, human, etc.) is prepared and updated for each village. For example, out of 14 talukas of Pune district 3 talukas are identified as flood vulnerable which include 89 villages. Disaster Management Cells (DMC) at local levels are well prepared to tackle any emergency situation including floods. In the flood prone villages, the DMC has trained at least ten local volunteers, and have a computerised inventory of all the necessary equipment, machinery, boats, Life jackets etc. It has also included the names and contacts of Government officials, Members of village/Municipality Disaster Management Committee and Groups, rescue team members like swimmers, health workers,

Inception Report 17 RTSF&ROS Krishna & Bhima River Basins

anganwadi workers etc. The Pune District Disaster management System is illustrated Figure 3.6.

Figure 3-6 Pune District Disaster Management System

Similar disaster management systems are developed for all the districts under Revenues Division of Pune. The related information is available in www.idrn.gov.in ; www.mdmu.maharashtra.gov.in ; www.ndma.gov.in ;

The Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) Booklet is available in Marathi and is in circulation to all concerned. The village level/ Municipality level Disaster Management Plan is updated every year. Figure 3.7 shows some of the disaster management related documents including SOP, Disaster Management Act 2005 and Disaster Management Plan.

18 Inception Report Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF&ROS

Figure 3-7 Disaster Management related documents

The Disaster Management Plan prepared for Village/Municipality level has two parts. Part-1 contains information on 1. Information about Village / Municipality 2. Hazardous, Vulnerable and Risk Areas in the Village / Municipality and Map showing Disaster Prone area 3. Response and Improvement Plan 4. Early Warning and Preparedness Plan 5. Mitigation, Relief and rehabilitation Plan

Part-2 of the Plan includes 1. Telephone numbers of Government Officials (State/District/Taluk/Control Room) 2. List of Members of Disaster Management Committee, Groups, Swimmers etc. 3. Mitigation Measures for Hazardous, Vulnerable and Risk Areas 4. List of Emergency and Important Services 5. List of NGOs, Addresses, Telephone Numbers, Specialization 6. Inventory of available resources and equipment.

It was learnt that some major flood prone rivers are marked with blue lines (for 25 year flood) and red lines (for 100 year floods) by WRD. The current flood information received from WRD, however, is inadequate in terms of timing and magnitude of floods related to geographic areas. The disaster management officers expressed their need to have a more meaningful flood forecast with early warning message on when and where a certain level/depth of flood will occur. The lead time of such warning could be between a couple of hours for urban areas and a few days for rural areas. A longer (3-10 days) warning will always be useful in flood preparedness, but they realise that accuracy of such warnings is limited due to fast responding catchments in the Krishna and Bhima river basins. The officers met expressed their desire to cooperate with WRD in utilising the flood forecasts and warnings to be prepared by the RTSF&ROS project.

District Collector, Sangli

A meeting-cum-workshop was organised at the Office of the District Collector, Sangli on November 23, 2011 in which Additional Collector, Shri D.S. Patil and Resident Deputy Collector, Shri Uttam Patil gave their valuable suggestions from disaster management Inception Report 19 RTSF&ROS Krishna & Bhima River Basins

point of view. Executive Engineer, BSD, Pune presented the overview of RTSF & ROS project. Officers from various line departments attended the meeting. Resident Deputy Collector informed that they presently receive hourly update from WRD during flood like situation at Sangli where Krishna and Warna rivers meet. During the floods similar to those of 2005 and 2006, the Sangli town always getting affected, with standing water in many areas. Apart from tackling flood situation, the district administrators also expressed that the RTSF & ROS project should provide information related to water resources planning and management in drought prone areas like and Kavathe Mahankal tahsils of the district.

The District Disaster Management Cell is also established here like Pune and functioning under the Resident District Collector as Disaster Management Officer.

3.2.2 Task 1.2 Identify the needs of WRD and stakeholders The integrated and multi-sectorial approach to water resources planning, development and management on sustainable basis is very important due to various stakeholders involved. In addition to WRD and its various circles and divisions, the list of stakeholders is as follows. 1. Reservoir Managers / Operators 2. District Administrations / Disaster Management Officials 3. Flood affected people 4. Municipal Corporations (Domestic and Industrial Supply) 5. Farmers / Water User Associations 6. Electricity Boards. 7. Public Works Department (PWD) 8. Agricultural Department 9. Health Department 10. Maharashtra Jeevan Pradhikaran

Reservoir Managers / Operators All dams in Maharashtra State are planned for the conservation purposes for utilization of the stored water for irrigation, industrial use, water supply and /or power generation. Provision of specific flood absorption storage is not considered in any of the reservoirs up till now. They are not planned as flood control reservoirs. Dams can moderate the floods through a proper reservoir operation aided by reliable flood forecasting system. Reservoir operation has to be regulated in such a way that all the floods impinging upon the reservoir can be safely routed without involving any risk to the structure itself or any damage to the property downstream. Both these requirements will have to be given due weightage in reservoir operation. The RTSF & ROS, hence will become quite useful for the Reservoir Authorities. During the visit to the Khadakwasla reservoir system the officials responsible for operating were interviewed to assess their needs. Although the reservoir operation rules and procedures are well documented, the operators have expressed difficulty in taking decisions at times high inflows generated due to sudden and heavy rainfall

20 Inception Report Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF&ROS

in the catchment. They expressed that operation of the reservoirs would be much more effective if an inflow forecast is available in time. It was noted that, in case of the Khadakwasla reservoir the travel time of upstream flood is only about two hours. They also expressed that the reservoir operation should also consider downstream flood situation when large releases have to be made in short time. A reliable inflow forecast would also be useful in effectively using the emergency spillways during very high floods. Flood Control Cell For Bhima and Krishna basins, the Krishna Basin Flood Control Cell is established, which collects the reservoir levels, rainfall, spillway discharge for each of the reservoirs twice a day (0700 Hrs and 1700 Hrs) in normal circumstances and hourly in flood like situation. The data is received by any available means viz. Cell Phones, Wireless, Land Line etc. Flood control cell is under the Executive Engineer, Khadakwasala Irrigation Division, Pune and during monsoon (from June to October) is operational 24X7 in three shifts. Everyday, at 0800 Hrs Report is generated and send to The Chief Engineer, Water Resources Pune; The Chief Engineer (SP), Water Resources, Pune; Divisional Commissioner, Pune and the District Administration. The Disaster Management Cell under District Collector with the help of other departments is prepared for emergency response. But as on today, there is time delay in information dissemination which is mainly manual. Once the RTSF & ROS is operational, the information dissemination will be real time and District Administration will be prepared to tackle the situation with a longer lead time. Disaster Management Offices Stakeholders in this category include all district administration offices, which have a special disaster management cell headed by district disaster management officer. All talukas and villages have also established such cells. Every flood prone village has a number of trained disaster preparedness persons. Flood Affected People The flood affected people are the most important stakeholders of any flood forecasting system. For a successful flood disaster preparedness, the people have to receive and understand flood warning messages in time and in clearly understandable forms. An extensive field visit was made around the Pune city to identify areas and people affected from floods and to assess how a flood forecasting system will help in disaster preparedness. Visits to the Pune Municipal Corporation (PMC) Building area (Figure 3.8) revealed that the floods its bank submerging parked vehicles. Therefore a short (1 -2 hours) flood warning would save vehicles from flooding.

Inception Report 21 RTSF&ROS Krishna & Bhima River Basins

Figure 3-8 Flood Prone area near PMC Building Another area prone to floods is around the Bund Garden, where rivers Mula and Mutha meet (Figure 3-9). The gauging station would be a suitable flood forecast location. Discussion with some city dwellers revealed that they would be able to save movable property if a flood warning can be received about two hours in advance. This seems to be feasible as the travel time of flood wave from Khadakwasla reservoir to Bund Garden is about 2 hours.

22 Inception Report Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF&ROS

Figure 3-9 Flood Prone Area near Bund Garden As mentioned in Section 3.2.1 (page 19-20), similar flood affected conditions were reported by district administrators and other stakeholders in Sangli. Municipal Corporations (Domestic and Industrial Supply) The reservoirs in the Bhima and Krishna Basin provide water to the various users throughout the year, mainly within the agricultural, domestic, and industrial sector. Restrictions in the water allocation may be required from time to time depending on availability and user priority. While the water storage is known, the inflow to the reservoirs depends on the weather and climatic conditions in the coming days/weeks/months. The Municipal corporations at Pune, PCMC, Kolhapur, Sangli, Satara and other urban and rural areas are dependent on the supply from the reservoirs. Hence the less storage in the reservoirs at the end of monsoon season means less availability of water to these corporations. Along with District Administration, corporations and municipalities also have their disaster management cells, and requires timely and accurate information, which can be generated and disseminated from RTSF &ROS. Maharashtra Jeevan Pradhikaran The Maharashtra Jeevan Pradhikaran (earlier known as Maharashtra Water Supply and Sewerage Board) was constituted for rapid development and proper regulation of Water Supply and Sewerage service in the State of Maharashtra. As most of the water supply schemes will be dependent on supply from reservoirs or rivers, the information on water availability in the reservoirs as well as flows in the rivers will be very useful for water supply planning. In case of flood like situations, the timely

Inception Report 23 RTSF&ROS Krishna & Bhima River Basins

information from RTSF & ROS can be very useful in using the alternate sources of water adhering to safety norms. Farmers / Water User Associations

To overcome the cumbersome procedure to get water, unreliability of water supply, inequity in water distribution, limitation on area under sugarcane, frequent conflicts and water logging problems, the Water User Associations (WUAs) have been functional in many irrigation areas in command areas. The WUA signs an agreement with the irrigation department to receive water on volumetric basis. They are expected to maintain and repair the minor and also was responsible for water distribution. As they are one of the main stakeholders to receive the water from reservoirs, the information on reservoir operation schedule as well as availability of water in the reservoirs can help them make better crop planning.

Agricultural Department

Agricultural Department considers farmer as the focal point and the whole department is organized in such a fashion that a single mechanism is working to facilitate the farmer for adoption of advanced technology and sustainable use of available resources. Thus the department advises farmers and water user associations on crop practices and irrigation methods, in normal circumstances as well as during drought and flooding. The information generated from the RTSF & ROS will also equip the department with information required to deal with abnormal conditions.

Public Works Department (PWD)

PWD takes care of development and maintenance of road network in the state as well as various construction activities for public use. The road network includes bridges and culverts and therefore, it is very essential for the PWD to have the latest status of river levels so that the safe transit of people is managed. Based on the information in advance, the traffic can also be diverted to safer routes. Electricity Boards The real time forecasts for reservoir releases also mean the running the hydropower plants, whenever possible with its optimum capacities. The timely information in this aspect can also help the electricity boards to manage additional power supply in their grid or even trade additional power. Health Department Health department is a very important department in disaster management. In the eventuality of floods, the department has to take care of different measures including short term and long term medical services. The prior information on flood thus will help the department in assessing the gravity of the situation and get the requisite resources at right time and at right place. Regular interaction with the officials of the Basin Simulation Division has been made to ascertain their needs. The tasks and activities planned to be carried out in the project are in line with their needs.

24 Inception Report Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF&ROS

Further consultation with stakeholders was carried out during the Inception Workshop, which was recognised as a forum for all stakeholders to participate interactively with each other as well as with the Consultants. The discussion and recommendations provided further insight into to assess stakeholders’ needs (Appendix B).

3.2.3 Task 1.3 Identify and assess sources of weather forecasts and flow forecasting and reservoir operation tools Detailed description pertaining to this task is presented in Monthly Progress Report -2 (October 2011). Also Chapter for (4) of this Inception Report presents in detail the various tools (models) to be developed and applied in this project. Sources of Weather Forecasts Weather forecast is the key requirement for inflow forecast as well as for flood forecast. Out of the many weather parameters, only rainfall forecasts over the Krishna and Bhima river basins is sufficient for the purpose of the present assignment. The potential sources of rainfall forecast are: IMD Short Term Forecasts: IMD short term forecasts are prepared from synoptic maps, and made at district level up to five days ahead (Figure 3-10). The forecasts and a range of background information are available on the web site (http://www.imd.gov.in). A range of ground based and remotely sensed sources is used, including mathematical models. Reliability of the forecasts will be checked before using the forecasts.

Figure 3-10 IMD's 5-day District Wise Forecast IMD’s Flood Meteorological Office (FMO) in Hyderabad may also provide Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) for the Krishna and Bhima basins on demand by Water Resources Department of Maharashtra. FMOs provide necessary meteorological support to the Central Flood Forecasting Divisions of Central water Commission (CWC). These FMOs function under the technical control of Hydromet Division, IMD, Delhi while their administrative control rests with RMCs (Regional Meteorological Centre). During the Flood season, FMOs issue daily Hydro-meteorological bulletins to Flood Forecasting Divisions of CWC on operational basis. It contains the following items:-

i. Quantitative Precipitation Forecast(QPF) in different range which are 1 – 10 mm, 11 – 25mm, 26 – 50mm, 51 – 100mm and > 100mm.

Inception Report 25 RTSF&ROS Krishna & Bhima River Basins

ii. Prevailing synoptic weather situation in the region. iii. Basin wise areal rainfall. iv. Station wise significant rainfall during past 24 hours( > 50mm). v. Heavy rainfall warning in the next 48 hours, if any.

Figure 3-11 IMD Catchment areas for Krishna & Bhima River basins

During flood alert period, FMOs work round the clock and modifies QPF if required. The FMO, Hyderabad is assigned with the estimation of Meteorological information for the Krishna basin. IMD provides QPF for each ¼ th of a grid of the catchment. QPF for Bhima and Krishna catchments in Maharashtra, defined as sub catchments Upper Bhima (K5) and Upper Krishna (K1) as grid point rainfall up to 72hrs in advance (Figure 3-11). The proposed Doppler Radars at Ratangiri and Aurangabad in near future will enhance the resolution and accordingly data input provision will be made in the system.

The contact office is: IMD, Flood Meterology Office, RS/RW Building, Airport Colony, Hyderabad- 500016(Andhra Pradesh) Land Line no. 040-27904909, Fax no. 040-27908506, e-mail- [email protected] or [email protected]

National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting: The National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF http://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/) is the premier institution in India to provide weather forecasts through deterministic methods. A mesoscale model (MM5 developed by Penn State University and the

26 Inception Report Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF&ROS

National Centre for Atmospheric Research, USA) is executed in real time for forecasting mesoscale systems, e.g. western disturbances, severe thunderstorms, tropical cyclones and heavy rainfall episodes. The model is run on triple nested domains at 90, 30 and 10km resolutions using initial conditions from a Global Model (Figure 3-12). MM5 coverage is only available at the regional 30km scale (11). Although this will have limited use in quantitative rainfall forecast, it will provide a basis for judgment of future events over the catchments. Quantitative rainfall forecasting can considerably increase the flood warning time, though the accuracy declines rapidly with lead time. The MM5 forecasts, while too coarse to be of real use for real time inflow forecasts, can nonetheless be assimilated for the operators to gain experience with the system. The technology for quantitative precipitation forecasting is developing rapidly, and new versions with greater accuracy can be incorporated as and when they become available. The project will consult NCMRWF in obtaining further information and in utilising their expert services.

Figure 3-12 Domains of MM5 Meteorological Models European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/

Quantitative precipitation estimates from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) modelling system may be used for areas where rainfall data are not available or where the number of rainfall stations is inadequate. ECMWF is one of the leading global modelling centres, producing high quality analyses and forecasts at various time scales. ECMWF produces weather and climate forecasts useful for medium range (1-10 day) and seasonal/long range rainfall prediction. The predictions are, however, of

Inception Report 27 RTSF&ROS Krishna & Bhima River Basins

probabilistic nature as a large sets of ensemble values are produced and analysed. The forecast system incorporates probabilistic meteorological and climate forecasts and satellite data. The ECMWF weather variables are surface fields of wind, humidity, and precipitation. The weather forecasts are provided as 51 ensemble members for each variable and for each forecast lead-time. The model resolution is at approximately 50 x 50 km grid from 0 to 10 days, with the forecasts horizon also extending to 15 days. All forecast fields are interpolated to the same 1/2x 1/2grid. The shorter-term hydrological forecasts uses the a 51-member ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System initialized twice each day. For the seasonal forecasts the 1-6 month predictions of the 41-member ECMWF Ensemble System coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model. The model is initialized each month and run for seven months. Both models provide the distributions of precipitation that are used to force the hydrological models.

The ECMWF precipitation forecasts require statistical adjustment. This is accomplished using NASA and NOAA satellite and rain gauge estimates of rainfall data and a quantile-to-quantile (q-to-q) bias correction at each grid point in the basins. The q-to-q statistical corrections minimize systematic error in the forecasts of model precipitation; random error in the precipitation forecast is less important because of the large ensemble size used and the integrating effect of the large- catchment basin on the stream flow. To generate statistically accurate forecasts, the many uncertainties present in the analysis process must be accounted for in some manner. After these corrections have been applied, the probabilistic forecasts are produced.

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) The tropical rainfall measuring mission of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) produces merged 3-hourly rainfall rates incorporating space borne radar, microwave data and infrared imagery. The data are then processed at the United States Geological Survey’s Earth Resources Observation and Science centre to convert them to daily accumulations and for converting to GIS-ready images. The NASA-TRMM product (version 3B42) covers the tropics between 50°N and 50 °S, with grid cells of spatial resolution 0.25° by 0.25°. The NASA TRMM daily rainfall products are available from 1998 to the present. The processed rainfall data are made available within 12 h after the remote sensing data collection. The NASA TRMM 3B42 products are reported to be superior to other satellite data in regions with limited in situ gauges. The TRMM 3B42 satellite estimate is a merged product comprising calibrated IR rainfall and microwave- rainfall. These satellite estimates are again calibrated by precipitation radar of TRMM and gauges over land. The final product of TRMM 3B42 is a gridded data available 3-hourly for extended tropical regions of the globe. Even though TRMM is a polar-orbiting satellite, the merging of IR and microwave-rain from many other satellites compensate for the deficiency to produce rainfall. Although the TRMM data will be useful in data assimilation and model applications in hind cast, their use in real time flow forecasting is limited. Flow Forecasting Tools

28 Inception Report Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF&ROS

A detailed review and requirements of the tools is presented in Chapter 4. Flow forecasting will be a based on a coupled rainfall-runoff and hydrodynamic model being developed based on DHI’s MIKE 11 modelling package. The Rainfall- Runoff component is based on the NAM module while calculation and forecasting of flood water and reservoir levels are being managed by MIKE 11’s hydrodynamic module. Rainfall-Runoff modelling As a component of the “DSS-Planning Project” a number of NAM models have been established in the Upper Bhima catchment. A similar schematisation and calibration approach as applied in that project is initially being developed in the Krishna and Bhima RTSF & ROS. After dividing the river basins into a number of catchments and sub-catchments these sub-models are calibrated applying historical rainfall and discharge observations. In delineating the catchments following factors are considered: topography, rainfall variation, sub-basin outlets, watershed atlas produced by Soil & Land Use Survey of India (www.cgwb.gov.in) and the Maharashtra Water & Irrigation Commission Report (1999). Further details are provided in Chapter 4. After calibration the NAM model shall be configured to a full utilisation of all available real time data including ROS data and weather forecasts to simulate and update the catchment runoff. River Basin Simulation Modelling The MIKEBASIN river basin water resources modelling system is being developed for water assessment and water allocation. Details are provided in Chapter 4. Hydrodynamic modelling The development of the MIKE 11 hydrodynamic model has also been initiated. Based on available river and reservoir shape files and satellite images the river network is being digitized. River cross-sections, reservoir operation rules and updated Stage-Area-Volume relations, catchment drainage pattern and data assimilation for real-time updating will subsequently be developed. Following the set up and calibration the short term flow forecasting model will be imported into the “Flood Watch Online” DSS tool. Flood Watch Online is a DSS platform, which is used to assist in the daily forecasting procedure. Flood Watch Online runs in automated or in manual controlled mode. After importing real-time data output facilities will be developed and customised to meet the need of WRD. Reservoir Operation Tools The requirement for reservoir operation is a comprehensive description of multi- purpose multiple reservoir management. The Reservoirs may be on parallel and sequential rivers, purposes may be domestic and industrial water supply, irrigation, hydropower or flood control. A list of major and medium dams in the Krishna and Bhima river basins with their purposes are given in Appendix C. Existing operation rules will be incorporated into the MIKE 11 model in parallel with DSS tools allowing the responsible officer to base his forecast on these or on user defined policies, on predicted inflows combined with multiple objective functions and constraints. Outputs and dissemination

Inception Report 29 RTSF&ROS Krishna & Bhima River Basins

The scope of the Krishna-Bhima basin management system is to support reservoir operation through rapid access to data and guidance in the application of operation rules. The outputs of the RTSF-ROS will be modelling results analysing a number of possible future scenarios that may be the consequence of observed and predicted climatic input and options for system operations. This will provide a readily comprehensible decision background for efficient reservoir management. The information displayed will be real time observations and forecasted river and reservoir stages and will include:

 GIS maps showing weather forecasts and rainfall intensity maps

 Time series (tables and/or graphs) of river flows, reservoir, river and flood plain levels, irrigation and water supply and hydropower generated

The primary output will be the most important data required for daily operations, e.g. the latest measurement of reservoir levels and discharges at selected locations. Additional information displayed can relate to a particular sub-basin, data category, and other groupings.

3.2.4 Task-1.4 Review available data and, the RTDAS network and identify critical gaps and recommend strategies to fill these A detailed review and analysis made on the various components of the data network is presented in Monthly progress Report-2 (October 2011). A detailed documentation on data availability and requirement is presented in Appendix D. Hydro-climatological data Network Figure 3-14 shows the Krishna and Bhima river basin map with existing hydro- climatological stations and proposed real time stations under the RTDAS project. Rainfall

Rainfall is the only source of water in the Krishna and Bhima river basins. The quality of inflow and flow forecasts depends on the density and timeliness of rainfall data. Hence measurement and collection of rainfall data from stations representative of all catchments is a prerequisite to any analysis and forecasting. The total number of rainfall stations reporting in real time is shown in Table 3.1. This seems to be adequate with a density of one rainfall station covering about 333 km2. Figure 3-13 shows only rainfall stations overlaid on the proposed rainfall- runoff model (NAM) catchments. The total number of NAM Catchments in the two basins as delineated presently is 93. The number of proposed real time stations indicates that each catchment will have one to four rainfall stations depending on the size. Although, there is no limit to how many rainfall stations can provide adequate data in hilly catchments, the proposed coverage seems to be adequate from the rainfall-runoff modelling point of view.

30 Inception Report Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF&ROS

Figure 3-13 Rainfall stations with Figure 3-14 Hydro-Met Network in basin catchment delineation Krishna and Bhima River Basins

Figure 3-15 proposed real time Water level Stations

Table 3.1 Summary of rainfall data network (to be upgraded to real time reporting stations). River Basin Area Category I Category II Category III Total no. (Existing and (FCS) of rainfall 2 (km ) (nos.) new) nos. stations

Krishna 21,114 9 67 16 82 (existing 52, (7 existing, 9 new 15) new) Bhima 48,853 20 82 26 128 (existing 39, (10 existing, 16 new 43) new) Total 69,967 29 149 42 210

Inception Report 31 RTSF&ROS Krishna & Bhima River Basins

During the review and analysis of adequacy of rainfall network, comparison was also made with WMO and Indian standards. There are a variety of standard recommendations on the density of rain gauges. According to Raghunath (2006), the recommended density is given below: Area Rain gauge density (area per rain gauge) Plains 520 km2 Elevated regions 260-390 km2 Hilly regions with very 130 km2 heavy rain

Raghunath (2006) also states that in India an average density of 500 km2 is acceptable. One governing factor is also the cost of establishing and maintaining the rain gauges. WMO recommendations on the density of rain gauges are given below: (WMO, 1996) Regions Ideal density (area per Acceptable density (area rain gauge) per rain gauge) Flat 600-900 km2 900-3,000 km2 Mountainous 100-250 km2 250-1,000 km2

The density of proposed RT rain gauges in the Krishna-Bhima basins is given below: Basin Area (km2 ) Number of Rain Density (area per gauges rain gauge) Krishna 21,114 82 257 km2 Bhima 48,853 128 381 km2 Total 69,967 210 333 km2

The average density of 333 km2 per rain gauge appears to be adequate. Separating the hilly and flat catchments, the average density is: Hilly Area average density: 100 km2 per rain gauge

Flat Area average density: 716 km2 per rain gauge. It is noted that the flat areas in the lower part of Bhima basin are dry with low rainfall. Hence these catchments have a rain gauge density 716 km2 per rain gauge as against the 100 km2 per rain gauge in hilly areas. In summary, it can be concluded that the proposed network is adequate.

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River water level & discharge stations

Automated River Water Level (stage) and River Discharge stations fall under Category IV of the proposed RTDAS project. Figure 3-15 shows the proposed real time river water level and discharge stations. The new stations or existing stations proposed to be upgraded, will measure river stage and report in real time to the data centre at Pune. A total of 14 river water level stations (with 3 new) will report in real time in the Krishna basin. In the Bhima basin 20 water level stations (with 6 new) will report in real time. It is found that the proposed river water level network for real time reporting is adequate for the modelling purpose including flood forecast. It is suggested to include two downstream river gauging stations (namely at Bubnal or Kurundwad in Krishna and Develkavthe in Bhima. These two stations will serve as the downstream boundaries for the hydrodynamic models, and therefore, it is very useful to obtain real time data from them. Reservoir Water Levels:

Automated Reservoir Water Level and Outflow Discharge Stations fall under Category V. This category data collection stations that will measure reservoir water elevation and transmit this data to data centre at Pune. A total of 46 automatic reservoir water level stations (19 in Krishna and 27 in Bhima basin) is proposed to be installed under the RTDAS project (Figure 3-16).

Reservoir Release data (from gate opening)

Under category VI, automated measurements of gate opening (spillway, irrigation and power outlet) will be established to provide reservoir release data in real time on experimental basis. The measured gate opening will be used along with water elevation to determine accurate discharge past the gates. The reservoirs namely Koyna and Radhanagari will be provided with spillway gate sensors and the reservoirs namely Ujjani, Dhom and Kanher will be provided with irrigation and/or power outlet sensors. Khadakwasla, Vir and Warna reservoirs will be provided with both spillway gate sensors and outlet sensors. A total of 59 gate openings (37 spillway gates, 19 irrigation outlets gates and 3 power outlet gates) is proposed to be established for real time transmission on experimental basis. Presently, the data of spillway gate, irrigation and / or power outlet operations is generally Figure 3-16 Proposed real time available in the form of telephone, mobile, Reservoir Water level Stations wireless or radio messages from dam operations staff. The reservoir data collection station/network will support manually entered gate operation information and transmit this data to data centre at

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Pune. In some situations, the outflows are also measured directly in off-take canals downstream of the dam. River Cross Sections

River Cross sections including flood plain levels are the key topographical information required for hydraulic modelling of a river system on which the flood forecasting system will be built. Also the reservoir operation system will be based on the hydraulic model (MIKE11) of the whole River and reservoir system. Hence an updated river-floodplain cross section is required for all the rivers under the model domain. A total of 101 river cross section data have been made available by WRD, out of which 17 cross sections are from CWC, 41 from G-D stations and 43 are from WRD’s river survey of lower reaches of Krishna river. WRD is planning to carry out a river survey programme to collect about 2,000 river cross sections in the river reaches shown in Figure 3-17. WRD has been advised to use same reference Bench mark and to extend the river cross section surveys to flood plains so that the levels can be used for flood mapping in the absence of adequate topo maps. If the proposed survey data will be available (on time), the coverage of cross section is adequate for the purpose of modelling and flood forecasting.

Figure 3-17 River reaches showing the proposed cross section survey Satellite Images

Taking into account the large area coverage of the river basins, conventional methods to collect this information proves to be costly, time-consuming &

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cumbersome. Hence remote sensing becomes to be an effective tool in river basins where timely information of the dynamic changes has to be taken into consideration. This technique provides us synoptic, repetitive, multi-spectral coverage of large areas and data is quantifiable. Indian Remote Sensing Satellite (IRS) data from LISS-II, LISS-III, LISS-IV, PAN, AWiFS & WiFS sensors are extensively used for generating spatial databases. Satellite data will be very useful in identifying irrigation areas including crop coverage, flood affected areas and other land use. For this project it is recommended to use IRS Resourcesat LISS-III and AWiFS data sets. These data sets can be procured from NRSC Data Centre, National Remote Sensing Centre, Hyderabad. www.nrsc.gov.in. Specific requirements will be worked out as the modelling work progresses.

Figure 3-18 Satellite Map of Krishna-Bhima Basin (RESOURCESAT IRS-P6 AWiFS data) Topographic Maps

The Survey of India (SOI) 1:50,000 scale maps coverage is shown in Figure 3-19 and also in table. These topo maps have limited use as their vertical accuracy not be useful for flood mapping. It is also expected that irrigation command area maps may provide contour of acceptable accuracy.

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Figure 3-19 Index map of topo sheets of SOI

These maps and information will be used in conjunction with floodplain to be obtained during the proposed river cross section survey.

47 E 11, 12, 15, 16 47 F 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16 47 G 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16 47 H 9, 13, 14, 15, 16 47 I 3, 4, 8, 12, 15, 16 47 J 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16 47 K 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16 47 L 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14 47 M 4 47 N 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11, 12, 14, 15, 16 47 O 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15 47 P 1, 5, 9 48 I 1, 5 56 B 4, 8 56 C 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13

3.2.5 Task-1.5 Define options and scenarios for optimal multiple reservoir operation

A variety of scenarios will be defined while developing an optimal reservoir operation guide. There are two main types of scenarios: General and Specific. General scenarios are applicable to all reservoirs in the basin. For example, the system behaviour (present and future stages and related releases) may be analysed for a set of climatic conditions either based on historical data or based on forecasts. A set of pre-defined simulated scenarios of rainfall, inflows, downstream floods, release for each water use will be stored in the system for use during the real time scenario management. Another method of testing an input scenario is using statistical methods. For example, what will be the flooding if the forecast rainfall varies by ±20%? Long term scenarios include hydrological impacts of climate change and land use changes in catchment. Both short and long term forecasts will be used to analyse “what if” scenarios. Short term forecasting is carried out when rainfall is dominating the catchment runoff, and will guide operations in flood 36 Inception Report Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF&ROS

situations, and day to day operations. Long term forecasting will be applied to predict seasonal flows dependent on long term climate predictions. The latter made as stochastic predictions based on historical records and correlations have a higher degree of uncertainty, though nonetheless useful for long term reservoir management. The river basin and hydrodynamic models will be run with key scenarios to simulate the performance of the system on selected historical flood and drought events, with a full description of the system input and outputs. Another set of scenarios are implemented by changing the simulated releases from reservoirs either directly or through changing the operation strategy. Basic predefined scenarios will be determined which could include varying the predicted rainfall by say ±20%, varying reservoir releases, shifting the balance of releases among the reservoirs, shifting the relative importance of flooding, irrigation and hydropower. With the assistance of a scenario manager, users may also define their own scenarios, including recalling previous events. For example, what will be the level of satisfaction of crop water demand if a reservoir release is changed from the long-term operation rule established to a new rule based on short term forecasts? Another example could be what happens to irrigation releases if the flood control buffer in reservoirs varies by ±20%? The other category of scenarios belongs to specific operation scenario of a particular reservoir system. These specific scenarios will be studied and tested in consultation with the reservoir operators and other decision makers/stakeholders during actual implementation of the reservoir operation guide. A Video conferencing facility is therefore, useful at the operational control room. The simulation models may be combined with optimisation routines to iterate automatically through various operation scenarios to identify the ones best fulfilling a set of predefined objectives, for example minimal downstream flooding, maximum timely water supplies and hydropower generation. Often short term objectives compromise long term objectives, thus short term analysis has to be combined with long term analysis to reach a combined optimum. The DSS Planning Project has reported a case study of testing a specific scenario in the Upper Bhima Basin. The reservoirs in the Upper Bhima Basin provide water to the various users throughout the year, mainly within the agricultural, domestic, and industrial sector. Restrictions in the water allocation may be required from time to time depending on availability and user priority. While the water storage is known, the inflow to the reservoirs depends on the climatic conditions in the coming months. It is likely that the inflow in the near future will resemble the inflow of earlier years. In order to provide a solid basis for planning, long time series of inflow to each reservoir in Upper Bhima have been generated using the observed data and hydrological modelling. It is now possible to test the performance of the reservoirs over the coming months for different water allocation plans and the likely range of inflow. An example is shown below for Pawna reservoir. Starting from the current reservoir level, which has been set quite low in this example, and using planned releases to the various users, the reservoir level for the next 12 months has been calculated for each of the available 39 years of daily inflow (Figure 3-20).

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Figure 3-20 Ensemble of 39 simulations of Pawna reservoir level variation as a function of inflow. These results are automatically further processed in the DSS into three curves, representing different percentiles to indicate the likelihood of water level exceedence, as shown below (Figure 3-21).

Figure 3-21 The Likely Variation of Pawna Reservoir in the Future The curves represent: - A dry year with low inflow and a late start of the next monsoon. This is shown as the blue curve below. It is a pessimistic, but realistic, prediction, corresponding to a 1-in- 10 year low, as the likelihood of getting higher water levels is 90%

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- An average year with a 50% likelihood is shown as the red curve - A wet year with relatively high inflow and an early start of next monsoon. These – or higher – levels have a 10% probability of occurring. The user can in this way easily obtain information of the likely performance of a reservoir for proposed water allocations. If the analysis shows an unacceptable risk of failure, the user can modify the planned amount of water allocation and re-run the analysis. These analyses may be made at any time of year and repeated regularly to ensure that the reservoir operations are on track. During the development and implementation of reservoir operation guidelines, the existing strategies will be reviewed and analysed. WRD has been requested to provide detailed information and data of all the reservoirs in the basin including the operational rule curves. The simulation models being developed integrate all the reservoirs in the two basins. Therefore, it will be possible to look into the combined operation of the reservoirs in which impacts of water releases from upstream dams will be reflected in the downstream reservoirs.

3.2.6 Task 1.6 Review institutional capacity of WRD, and recommend improvements for human resource development, and facilities for effective functioning The detailed description pertaining to this task is presented in Chapter 5 of this report.

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4 METHODOLOGY AND APPROACH 4.1 Knowledge Base and Management System The Knowledge Base and its Management System will be based on DHI’s DSS architecture which is presently being applied in the DSS-Planning Project (NIH/World Bank) and for the RTDSS Project with Bhakra Beas Management Board (BBMB/World Bank).

DSS Platform combines the MIKE modelling system via the Scenario Manager, and it incorporates a general purpose simulation-optimisation framework to provide an optimal solution to multiple often competing objective functions. In addition, it incorporates a comprehensive Knowledge Management System, a number of communication protocols, and a Web Portal with a user defined Alert System

The Knowledge Base Management System within the DSS Platform provides an existing proven structure with generic interfaces to external data allowing ready import and export of data. Data access bridges ensure availability from various sources such as HIS, weather forecasts, remote sensed data, RTDAS, etc. The GIS interface conforms to the Open GIS Consortium, allowing linkage with, for example, Google Maps for display and spatial queries.

4.1.1 Design and Development of the Knowledge Base The Krishna-Bhima RTSF & ROS Knowledge base will basically adopt the overall architecture and design from the DDS-Planning Project.

The Metadata document established during the Inception Phase and presented in Appendix E, together with the Modelling Concept, presented in Section 4.2, is setting out the need for further developments and configuration. During the project implementation phase additional requirements might be revealed, but it is anticipated that the Knowledge will comprise the following data:

Geographic Data Infrastructure, built environments, demarcation, demographics, Land use and vegetation, soils and surface geology, WRD offices and locations for emergency services such as police and hospitals

Historical and Real-time Hydro-meteorological Time Series Climate, Rainfall, Evaporation, discharge, river, reservoir and ground water level, water quality, spatial cropping patterns, crop water requirements, hydropower demands, satellite data and weather forecasts

Other Topography and Hydrography Data Topography (DEM), water bodies (lakes, reservoirs, rivers, canals), hydraulic structures (dams, barrages, abstractions), location and characteristics of gauging stations, embankment alignments and heights

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The major difference between the DSS-Planning Knowledge Base and the database developed under the present RTSF & ROS project is the presence of Real-time hydro-meteorological data, such as weather forecasts from Numerical Weather Prediction models, on-line real time remote sensed data, and data from the Real Time Data Acquisition System. These data shall be automated imported, quality controlled and appended to existing observations.

The Knowledge Base architectural structure is shown below in Figure 4-1.

Inputs . GIS Maps . Time Series . Satellite Data

Analysis Management Knowledge . Quality Control . Catchment Delineation . Backup and Restore . Flooded Areas Base . Monitor Performance . Terrain Slope and Aspect . Upgrade and Expand

Outputs (pre and user defined) . Documents and Tables . Maps and Images . Web Pages

Figure 4-1: Knowledge Base Structure

4.1.2 Design and Development of the Knowledge Base Management System As for the Knowledge Base itself, the Management System shall be based on the developments carried out under the DSS-Planning Project.

The front end to the Knowledge Management System will provide a graphical user interface with explorer and data views, and tools for defining and targeting data queries in explorer and data views in user defined formats (see for example Figure 4-2).

In consultation with WRD, the Consultant will establish a set of pre-defined reports (eg MS Excel report templates that can easily be tailored and modified). These will enable flood managers, operators and other users to view the information and data in the Knowledge Base in a convenient presentation format. The reports will include maps with selected GIS features, satellite images, spatial displays and charts of hydrologic data, tabular summaries of data, and documents. The pre-defined reports will be oriented towards the different sectors, e.g. hydrology, surface water, ground water, irrigation, power generation, environment, demographics, etc. This will also include generation of daily crop water requirement of major crops based on the real time data of climate stations for the basin at key locations.

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Figure 4-2: Example of a Knowledge Base Management System Front End The knowledge management system can be accessed remotely over the Intra/Internet controlled by User IDs and passwords by WRD offices, other organisations and the general public, and in the field by PDAs (Personal Data Assistant). Access privileges will be determined in consultation with WRD. In addition to the Windows interface shown above in Figure 4-2, a web interface will be developed. This will allow remote access and facilitating communication with stakeholders and with the general public. The web-interface will be based on DHI’s Dashboard Manager providing a number of tools for composing web pages, enhancing Internet access and the web portal. Additional information regarding this development are provided in Section 4.4: Communication and Information Management System

4.2 Streamflow and Forecasting Models 4.2.1 Role of Mathematical Models Mathematical models are used to predict future developments of the water resources situation in the river basins on the basis of updated real time information (short-term forecasting) or analyses of historical data and developments (long-term forecasting). The models will be used to simulate the hydrologic cycle and supplement the real time information from the RTDAS with estimates of the state variables such as catchment runoff, reservoir inflow, levels and releases and downstream flood conditions. In addition, the models will be

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used to analyse effects of various reservoir operation strategies and to optimise these rules.

Types of Models Many types of computer models have been applied for forecasting and management of hydrologic and hydraulic phenomena. Such models may be categorised as empirical models and conceptual/physically based models.

Empirical models are sometimes termed black box models because they concentrate on producing the correct output from a given input without considering the processes that generate the output. This group includes various types of correlation and regression analyses, ARMA (Autoregressive Moving Average) and ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) models, neural networks, generic algorithms, etc.

The empirical type of model uses more or less advanced analyses of local historical data to generate algorithms that result in the correct output. The models are easy to establish and often quite effective. However, they are based on local historical data and cannot account for changes in the system that may arise after the period on which they have been trained. Since, they are based on local historical data they are also not necessarily able to cope well with events out of the data ranges used to develop them. Such events could be extreme floods larger than those in the time series used in the development of the model.

Conceptual and physically based models are built on a description of the physical system they represent. The degree of detail of the physical system represented in the models varies. The conceptual model has the simplest system description and may also include certain empirical elements. Conceptual models are normally fast and robust while physically based models include a more detailed process description and are, for this reason, often more computationally demanding.

Both conceptual and physically based models need to be calibrated on historical data from the area to give good results. During the calibration process, model parameters are adjusted to fit the generated output as well as possible to reality. The physical descriptions in the models are not changed during calibration.

This type of model benefits from a process description and understanding developed on the basis of a large number of catchments and situations. They have a better chance of simulating correctly extreme events not present in the calibration data. Owing to their physical description, impacts of changes in the physical system such as new infrastructure can be simulated. Empirical models can only account for such changes after a certain period of time, maybe several years.

The consultant has vast experience establishing modelling system of the conceptual physically based type, and has successfully applied flow forecasting and reservoir operation DSSs around the world. They are superior to empirical models, are transparent and allow tracing the analytical process, adding to the user’s trust in their results. The proposed selection of models are therefore based on a conceptual and physically based suite of models.

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The RTDAS and the model results will feed into multi or single criteria decision tools which may be used directly by WRD or feed back into the models when they are run in optimisation mode to suggest optimal or non-dominant solutions. The detailed and tailor made design of such tools will be specified in close cooperation with WRD.

Based on experience with similar systems, the types of conceptual and physical models that will be included in the RTSF & ROS will be:

 A meteorological forecast model external to the system - results from the models will be used by the RTSF & ROS

 A rainfall-runoff model for simulation of the transformation of rainfall into evaporation, baseflow and superficial flow contributions to the rivers and reservoir inflow

 A river model with hydraulic and storage routing for routing of flow peaks though the system and for simulation of releases and storage in reservoirs

 A water resources allocation model to evaluate the impacts of the reservoir strategy for downstream users and recipients and for the power production.

4.2.2 Flow Forecasting Flow forecasting involves the use of hydrological and hydraulic models to transform measured and predicted rainfall in a catchment to a forecast time series of flows and water levels in a river system. They are typically used to provide warnings to residents at risk during times of flood, but can also be applied to predict inflows to reservoirs to optimise operations and hydropower production.

Required features are:

(1) Hydrological Rainfall-Runoff module (RR) which routes rain water to the rivers. The hydrological module utilises real time rainfall data as well as quantitative precipitation forecasts to generate runoff hydrographs to the future forecast horizon. (2) Hydrodynamic module (HD), which routes forecast inflows from the RR module through the rivers, canals and reservoirs included in the model. This may additionally include the dynamic operation of gates or other moveable structures. Fully dynamic routing is essential where rapid changes in flows or water levels occur, e.g. for short term simulation in power canals or for flood operations of structures. Where this is not required, e.g. for long term forecasting, simpler routing models can be used. (3) Structure operation (gate or hydropower discharge) module (SO), which incorporates the defined rules for operating the reservoir, which may change dynamically during a model simulation.

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(4) Data assimilation module (DA), which applies real time corrections to the simulated water levels and discharges based on available measurements, and makes a prediction of the necessary corrections to the forecasting horizon. Real time data assimilation is an essential prerequisite for an accurate flow forecasting system. The technology is described further in the following section. (5) A decision support system (DSS) to coordinate the exchange of data between the telemetry system and the model, and to provide operators with a user friendly interface to the underlying models. The core of modern inflow and flood forecasting systems is thus a hydrological and hydraulic model that applies to the current state of the river basin. The frequency of short term forecasts will vary over the year and according to the alarm level. The frequency may be daily during the low flow season and during filling of the reservoirs. During the period with high reservoir levels and high rainfall the frequency increase to four times a day or even more. The frequency can increase automatically when certain alarms in the systems are triggered.

Flood peaks have to be calibrated at least on an hourly resolution. For important historical floods, the preceding rainfall events as well as flood water levels and flows should be on an hourly basis. This also applies to other highly dynamic events in the river such as flooding due to burst of upstream blockages or waves generated by flushing upstream reservoirs.

All available data for the largest floods on records will be studied and a decision made on how many of these floods to include in the model calibration.

Short Term Forecasting In situations where rainfall is dominating flow conditions, due to the response time of the catchment, the models can predict the runoff and the

reservoir inflows around one or two S a te l lit te D a ta day ahead on the basis of the

climatic input observed up to the RAINFALL G r o u n d time of forecast (Figure 4-3). If D a ta FORECASTS reliable precipitation and temperature forecasts can be made, this period can be extended by some days.

Where the runoff is dominated by M I K E 1 1 baseflow or originates mainly from MODELLING reservoir releases the runoff can be predicted with precision for a longer time horizon on the basis of real time information. FORECASTS Figure 4-3: Short term forecasting The short term forecasts may assist in decisions regarding short term hydro power production strategies, day to day operations in general and operation in flood situations in particular.

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Long Term Forecasts Long term forecasts, used to predict the seasonal or annual inflows, depend on long term climate predictions. Thus having a higher degree of uncertainty. Often the climate predictions are made as stochastic predictions based on the historical records (extended time series prediction), possibly combined with long term meteorological predictions. This requires running simulation periods of many historical years for each forecast, as illustrated in Figure 4-4. Often simpler flow routing models are used in such cases.

Real-time data Historical Data

Sutron stations

Extended Stream flow Prediction

-Real Time Data Probabilistic forecast

Time of forecast .

Figure 4-4: Long term forecasting

Data Assimilation No simulation model is perfect, implying that the variables and output of the model will not completely match reality. For simulations into the future such as forecasts, the real situation is not known beyond the time of forecast. However, it has been found to be crucial for the accuracy of the forecasts that the stage variables (river flows, reservoir volumes, etc.) in the model match the real conditions in the basin at the same time, and that inaccuracies occurring in the model are analysed and properly adjusted for the remainder of the forecast simulation. The process of automating this procedure is termed data assimilation (or model updating). It uses real time information from the basin up to the time of forecast. The impact on forecasted flow series is illustrated in Figure 4-5.

Proper Data Assimilation is crucial for the accuracy of flow forecasts. State variables in the model are adjusted to the real time conditions in the basin and the errors analysed to produce the best estimate of the future. The process is described in further detail in Section 4.2.2: Data Assimilation.

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Figure 4-5: Data Assimilation Concept

Structure Operation Control structures may be used whenever the flow through a structure is to be regulated by the operation of a movable gate forming part of the structure. The structure may be described as an underflow structure, an overflow structure, a radial gate or a sluice gate. They can also be used to control the flow directly without taking the moveable gate into consideration. In this case it can simulate turbines and pump.

What If Scenarios Both short and long term forecasts may be used to analyse “what if” scenarios, and hence to predict impacts of certain regulations at the focus reservoirs as well as at other reservoirs in the system. This is carried out by altering internal or external model boundary conditions. Examples of such analyses are flood operation scenarios, analyses of peak production strategies for upstream power plants or flood consequences caused by extreme rainfall intensities during the forecast period.

Optimisation The models may be combined with optimisation routines to iterate automatically through various operation strategies to identify the ones best fulfilling a set of prescribed objectives. This is useful for determining optimal reservoir operation strategies with short or long horizons from the coming days, to the next season and to the coming years. The result of this model of operation could be optimised releases during the coming dry season on a monthly or weekly basis. Since such optimisations are typically computationally demanding, they may be carried out with simplified models capable of running with time steps longer than the detailed models normally used for short term inflow forecasting.

Flood Mapping The hydrodynamic model will output water levels and discharges throughout the system of reservoirs, rivers and flood plains. By matching the water levels with a Digital Elevation Model (DEM), flooded areas, depths and durations are mapped.

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Flood events can be displayed as animations of the flooded area from the onset to the recession of the flood.

The Consultant will apply this mapping in GIS to study historical flood events, and to map current and forecast situations in real time. The flood maps will overlay basic infrastructure, human settlements and roads and railways (to assess safe evacuation routes), etc.

4.2.3 Development of Simulation Models

Rainfall-Runoff The rainfall-runoff module simulates the rainfall-runoff processes occurring at the scale of a catchment and will be of the lumped conceptual type. The runoff hydrographs can either be applied independently or used to represent one or more contributing catchments that generate lateral inflows to the river network. In this manner it is possible to treat a single catchment or a large river basin containing numerous catchments and a complex network of rivers and channels within the same modelling framework.

The rainfall-runoff module simulates the rainfall-runoff process by continuously accounting for the water content in three different and mutually interrelated storages that represent different physical elements of the catchment. These storages are:

 Surface storage  Lower or root zone storage  Ground water storage The meteorological input data to the model are precipitation and potential evaporation. On this basis, the model produces time series of catchment runoff and information about other elements of the land phase of the hydrological cycle, such as soil moisture content and groundwater recharge. The resulting catchment runoff is split conceptually into overland flow, interflow and baseflow components.

The baseflow depends on the difference between the ground water level and the level of the outflow point in the linear reservoir. The latter is normally constant, but may be given a seasonal variation to represent the baseflow conditions of catchments draining to large rivers, which have a seasonal variation independent of the local hydrological conditions.

The rainfall-runoff model (NAM) catchments for both the Krishna and Bhima basins have been delineated as shown in Figure 4-6. In delineating the 93 catchments the following factors have been considered: topography, rainfall variation, sub-basin outlets, watershed atlas produced by Soil & Land Use Survey of India (www.cgwb.gov.in) and the Maharashtra Water & Irrigation Commission Report (1999). The present delineation of catchments is in agreement with the 48 Inception Report Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF&ROS

sub-basin map available in the above report. The All India Soil and Land Use Survey (AISLUS) Organization (Now known as Soil and Land Use Survey of India) of the Department of Agriculture and Cooperatives has published a national level watershed atlas on 1: 1 million scale using the base map from irrigation atlas of India in the year 1990. In this atlas, the entire river systems of the country have been divided into 6 Water Resources Regions, which have been further divided into 35 basins and 112 catchments. These catchments have been further divided into 500 sub-catchments and 3237 watersheds. The atlas consists of 17 sheets on 1:1 million scales along with a compendium of watersheds giving details of other related information such as area within the basin, sharing states and stream names etc. This atlas is being extensively used for various purposes by all the State and Central Government agencies, including WRD and GSDA of Government of Maharashtra.

Further refinement in the delineation may need to be carried out in course of model calibration and when more information becomes available.

Figure 4-6: Rainfall-Runoff Model (NAM) Catchment Delineation An important asset for the rainfall-runoff model is a proven built-in autocalibration routine, which significantly reduces the work load for model establishment and calibration. A sample result of rainfall-runoff model calibration from the DSS-Planning Project for one catchment in Upper Bhima is shown in Figure 4-7.

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Figure 4-7: Calibration of Upper Bhima Catchment with discharge at Chaskaman

River Hydraulics – Short-time Forecasting The module will analyse and predict the flows and water levels in rivers and canals in response to defined inflows, downstream water levels and gate operations. The model will therefore be of the physically based finite difference type. The core hydrodynamic component provides a robust and stable numerical solution to the Saint-Venant equations of mass and momentum conservation in a one dimensional network. The solution is equally applicable to open channels or closed (pressurised) systems such as tunnels.

Dynamic structure operations (e.g. gates, pumps, turbines) have to be incorporated, allowing the operation to be defined based on other model variables in the system (flows, levels) or time functions on defined priorities. The module has to cater for a wide range of hydraulic structures including:

 Weirs  Culverts  Pumps  Reservoir operation  Bridges  Dynamically controllable gates  Dam or embankment breaches

The modules require reservoir modelling capabilities, and to accommodate multi- purpose reservoirs and multiple reservoir systems. While the water resources module focuses on the allocation and use of water resources (see section??), the hydraulic aspects of structure operations are addressed by the hydrodynamic river module.

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The entire reaches of the Bhima and the Krishna River and their major tributaries are being developed for irrigation, hydropower and flood control, with projects running virtually head to tail in some of the catchments.

The module must therefore be capable of simulating the complex operation of the control structures with full hydrodynamics of the complex flow patterns, compounded by reflections and interference patterns in the reservoirs.

The development of the MIKE 11 hydrodynamic model has also been initiated. Based on available river and reservoir shape files and satellite images the river network is being digitized. An example of this is shown in Figure 4-8.

After the overall schematisation nodes (junctions and bifurcations) will be detailed, reservoirs schematised, structures inserted and calibrated and cross- sections (new and existing) applied.

Figure 4-8: MIKE 11 River schematisation

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Water Resources Allocation – Long-time Forecasting The water resources allocation model is required for long term simulations and for water resource allocation issues.

The model should be simple and intuitive, yet provide in-depth insight for planning and management. While the hydrodynamic module is applied to systems where advanced hydrodynamic routing of inflow hydrographs is important, for example to analyse the hydrodynamic impact of fast gate operation as a function of hydraulic conditions (water levels, flow velocities, or concentrations) at any location in the system or to predict impacts of highly dynamic flooding events, the water resources model simulates the long term seasonal variation in flow pattern and their management for various purposes. A model of the conceptual type is preferred for this purpose due to its flexibility in calculation time steps and faster computations.

The MIKEBASIN river basin water resources modelling system is being developed for water assessment and water allocation (Figure 4-9).

Figure 4-9 MIKEBASIN Model Schematic for the Krishna and Bhima Basins The long term management of the water resources is based on rules for the allocation of water throughout the basins to various priorities: water supply, irrigation, hydropower, the environment, and intra and interbasin diversions. The allocations can vary according to the level of stress in the system.

The modelling systems have to be equipped with GIS based graphical user interfaces that offer a unique and flexible environment to establish and maintain an overview of the real time or predicted water resources situation in larger management areas. Not only do these opportunities serve reservoir operators and

52 Inception Report Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF&ROS

decision makers in the development of short and long term operation strategies, they also serve as excellent means of communication of complex technical matters to non-specialists such as political decision makers and stakeholder groups.

The module should have built in routines for hydropower simulation, for optimization and the derivation of reservoir operation rules.

Crop Water demand Crop water demands can vary significantly from year to year. In the Krishna- Bhima Basin, it is understood that cropping patterns and farmer behaviour are relatively stable, crop water coefficients are well established, and the main factors affecting the crop water requirement are rainfall and soil moisture. The cropping pattern and water requirement for each reservoir command will be determined using satellite images and project database. The timing of releases from the reservoir will be advised based on crop water demand schedule. During drought years the critical water demand will be considered.

A biophysical approach is proposed to compute crop water demand (FAO56 CropWat) for major crops, where actual and forecast soil and soil moisture conditions, crop types and growth stages, and climatic data are used to compute evapotranspiration and hence forecast water requirements. Ground water abstraction and recharge can also be incorporated.

Reservoir simulation and Structure Operation Except a few reservoirs with minor or no effect on the flow conditions within the two river basins, the operation of the Bhima and the Krishna reservoirs will be schematised in the short-time hydrodynamic as well as in long-term water allocation forecasting models.

Elevation-Volume-Area (EVA) relations together with relevant geometrical information are being obtained as listed below:

 Stage-Volume and Stage-Surface Area relations  All existing reservoir bathymetric surveys  Type of Dam (Arch, Buttress, Gravity, Embankment)  Spillway information (no’s, crest levels, widths)  Gate information (no’s, crest levels, widths, type (underflow, overflow, radial) The geometrical information shall be incorporated into the respective mathematical models together with structure operation strategies, reservoir operation rules, irrigation demands, expected leakage, etc. To the extent possible the structure flow and corresponding energy loss will be calibrated, either based on observed data or on design criteria. A typical example is the (Figure 4-10), which shows irrigation outlet (front) and flood spillway (most distant) is shown.

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Figure 4-10: Khadakwasla Dam

Data Assimilation - Model Stage Updating State updating or data assimilation (DA) refers to methods that take into account real time measurements such as water level or discharge in preparing a forecast, and then adjusting the model through a feedback process to match the observations (see Figure 4-11). Updating is adopted for real time forecasting to improve the initial state of the system prior to the time of forecast. In addition, updating is applied to model correction in the forecast period to account for any inadequacy in the model or in the input data.

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Figure 4-11: State Updating with Data Assimilation Updating the forecasts on observed runoff or water levels provides a practical method of reducing the sensitivity of the flow forecasting model to uncertainties in rainfall data, as well as taking advantage of the persistence in hydrologic flows to reduce prediction errors. Applying data assimilation techniques in flow modelling significantly enhances model accuracy.

Both real time and forecast data are required to run a real time forecast. Real time and near real time information is used to assimilate the conditions in the model to the conditions in the basin, while forecast data are used as model input from the time of forecast into the future.

Flood Mapping The hydrodynamic model will output water levels and discharges throughout the system of reservoirs, rivers and flood plains. In addition the hydrodynamic model is able to simulate and present (in hindcast as well as in forecast mode) overbank river flow and inundation.

The flood mapping is an integrated component in the MIKE 11 hydrodynamic model. Based on applied river cross-sections, reservoir storage capacities and available terrain data (a DEM) these 2-dimensional flood maps will be generated “on the fly”, either as maximum flood inundation maps or as time series in two horizontal dimensions. I.e. inundation maps are available immediately after finalising the forecast simulation.

Inundation maps can be published either in a GIS environment or in Google Earth (GE). Below in Figure 4.12 an example of flood inundation maps from upstream, respectively downstream Bhakra Dam are presented.

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Figure 4-12: Flood Inundation Maps from the BBMB DSS project The Consultant will apply this mapping in GIS to study historical flood events, and to map current and forecast situations in real time. The flood maps will overlay basic infrastructure, location of WRD offices and emergency services, roads and railways (to assess safe evacuation routes), etc.

Catchment and Flood Plain Topography To generate flood inundation maps a reliable DEM must be established for the flood prone areas

Generally for accurate flood plain mapping, a vertical accuracy better than ±0.5m is required, though useful indicative flood maps can be prepared from less accurate data. The absolute accuracy of remote sensed DEMs (the SRTM 90m and ASTER 30m DEM) will not be better than say ±5m, though the relative accuracy from one grid to the next will be higher.

The Consultant has discussed this issue with WRD in connection with the review of the river survey campaign. It was agreed that, in all the flood prone areas, the

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river transects should be extended into the floodplains up to levels above highest possible flood level

These transects, together with available satellite images, shall then form the basis for developing the Digital Terrain Models (DTM).

4.2.4 Boundary Conditions

Meteorological data Meteorological data are used as input to the hydrological rainfall runoff model. Historical data are required for model calibration and for long term simulations while real time information is required for short term forecast simulations

The following data types are required by the models:  Precipitation  Potential evapotranspiration or meteorological parameters allowing this estimation Historical meteorological data are available from the ground observation network while real time information on these data types will be collected through the DAS.

Data from Meteorological Models and Satellite Data Collection and processing of these data are discussed in Chapter 3.

Presently the Krishna and Bhima catchments within the State of Maharashtra are not covered by any meteorological radar thus radar observed rainfall cannot be applied in the forecasting models.

The Consultant is aware of the availability of Satellite-based Rainfall Data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (i.e. TRMM) available from the NASA’s website (http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/overview_dir/background.html). Historical data are available in 3-hour time step format and the possibility of sourcing and applying real-time data is being investigated.

As Numerical Weather Prediction on an operational basis has been carried out by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for more than 20 years these data shall form the basis of the short-term QFP. But with a possibility of manual adjustment prior to submission of the forecast simulations. The forecast products of NWP are available on the website of IMD. These forecasts are updated at regular intervals.

4.2.5 Integration with Real-time Data Following the setup and calibration of the NAM hydrological Rainfall-Runoff and the MIKE 11 HD hydrodynamic river flow models, these shall be imported into and configured in DHI’s Flood Watch Online DSS tool.

Flood Watch Online is a user friendly platform, which is used to assist in the daily forecasting procedure. Flood Watch Online can run in automated mode or it can work in manual controlled mode. Flood Watch Online operates on a MIKE 11

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model, which will include the most important rivers and tributaries, sub- catchments and all important reservoirs.

Flood Watch Online Includes:  Online status of forecast simulation including display of last forecast time  Provision to load historical model simulation from archive.  Fast access to data at all forecast locations through a mapping interface  Time series data of forecasts and observations available in graphical and tabular view with graphical zooming facilities (Figure 4-13).

Figure 4-13: Flood Watch On-line  On-line, but user restricted Configuration Editor (Figure 4-14). Direct access to the forecasting model via the “MIKE11 Editor” button.  Provision to View the Log file from the MIKE11 simulation  Direct access to the MIKE11 Result Viewer via the “Result Viewer” button. Via this viewer it is possible to carry out detailed examination of simulation results before a publication is executed. Provision for opening MIKE FLOOD WATCH in a GIS environment.  Provision to run and test alternative scenarios with user defined rainfall (Figure 4-15) and/or reservoir operation strategies (Figure 4-16).

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Figure 4-14: Configuration of Flood Watch Online

Figure 4-15: Example of QPF adjustment

Figure 4-16: Example of Reservoir Operation Strategy

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4.3 Reservoir Operation Guidance System 4.3.1 Implementation of Existing Operation Rules Step one in developing the Reservoir Operation Guidance System must be an implementation of existing strategies in both the long- and the short term forecasting models.

Both MIKE BASIN, which shall form the modelling component in the long-term forecasts and MIKE 11 HD, applied in the short-term forecasts, have extensively developed Structure Operation Modules.

The BSD has started collection of Operation Rule curves and other documents from the 46 major reservoirs located within the project area, which will be handed over to Consultants. About 19 major reservoirs will have been given the highest priority with respect to schematisation and model implementation but shall be succeeded by collection of similar information from the minor reservoirs too.

In addition to the operation rules, reservoir capacities as stage-volume and stage- area relations and structural information (dam types, spillways, gate dimensions, etc.) are being collected and processed.

4.3.2 Optimisation of Existing Operation Rules Short term optimisation of operations in succeeding hours and days will be based on the outputs from the MIKE 11 hydrodynamic model, whereas long term optimisation over succeeding weeks and months shall be based on the outputs from the MIKE Basin water resources model.

In order to optimise the model simulations with respect to water resources and flood management, a set of objective functions and constraints will be defined in consultation with WRD. The optimisation process will iterate automatically through a large number of simulations representing various strategies to identify those best fulfilling the prescribed objectives.

Rule Curve Optimisation The Rule Curve optimisation will be based on historical data and will be developed applying the MIKE 11 AUTOCAL module. Dependencies among variables and weights assigned to the different objectives shall be defined in close corporation with WRD.

The AUTOCAL optimisation procedure consists of the optimisation of a single objective function, being a weighted aggregate of the different objective functions defined. By performing several optimisation runs with different sets of weights, the entire Pareto surface can be explored (Figure 4-17). Eventually, the decision- maker can express his/her choice to select a preferred optimum from the Pareto solutions. It is also possible to include a multi-objective optimization, if the decision makers (or reservoir operators) are capable of setting objective functions in terms of water release targets, economic benefits or losses from flood damages.

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However, rigorous multi-objective optimization may only be carried out off-line and results stored for comparison during actual operation.

Figure 4-17: Rule Curve Optimisation Based on this optimisation, the goodness of possible updating of the individual rule curves will be discussed among stakeholders of WRD during the actual implementation.

A set of demonstration cases will be established, presented to users and documented. For demonstration at the Interim Workshop, and presentation in the Interim Report, two cases will cover selected monsoon and dry periods. Based on these experiences, the updated rules curves will be suggested, if required.

4.3.3 Operational Guidance System The entire system including the knowledge base, forecasting models, optimisation and scenarios, will be encapsulated within an Operational Guidance System.

During the Inception Phase the needs of WRD as well as civil authorities with regard to media and formats for flood forecasting and dissemination have been discussed. A pilot system will be presented at the Interim Report and demonstrated during the Interim Workshop proposed to be organised in the first half of April 2012. 4.4 Communication and Information Management System The Knowledge Base Development (Section 4.1) will provide WRD with an invaluable data bank of information for multiple decision situations. Combined with the analytical capabilities of the RTSF system, the Reservoir Operation optimisations delivered through the ROS this system and simulation results from short- and long-term forecasting will provide WRD with a strong decision support capability.

A password protected user login system will grant access according to categories of users, from WRD managers to the general public as defined below:

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 Administrator - a profile that provides access to all parts of the system

 Configurator - a profile that provides access to the all parts of the system except those aimed at making administrative and once-in-a-lifetime settings. Typically, this profile is assigned to staff setting up the system

 Forecaster - a profile that provides access to all features required to work with the forecast related parts of the system. Typically, this profile is assigned to staff working with the system on a daily basis to produce forecasts

 Viewer - a profile that facilitates viewing of observed and forecasted data. Typically, this profile is assigned to managerial staff interested in examining data and results

4.4.1 Communication Strategy and protocols The Communication and Information Management System will be based on the DSS Platform incorporating the Knowledge Management System and the Web Portal, disseminating data from the Knowledge Base, the RTSF and ROS analytical modules and from the short- and long-time Forecasting modules.

The layout of the Communication and Information Management System is shown below in Figure 4-18: Communication and Information Management System and detailed in the following sections.

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In the office

In the field On the move Web Portal . Secure . Password login . Access levels

Alerts RTSF . Flood Forecasting . Water Resources Knowledge System . Scenarios, Demo Cases . Management System . Metadata & Atlas . Knowledge Base ROS . Real Time Data . Optimisation . Climatic Conditions . Reservoir and River Levels

Guidance System Guidance . Flood Plain Inundation Discussion Forum . Gate Operations Reservoir Operational Reservoir . Water Supply Allocation

Figure 4-18: Communication and Information Management System

4.4.2 Web Portal The Web Portal will be the gateway to the Knowledge Base and to the RTSF and ROS inclusive forecasts from the short- and long-time forecasting modules. The Consultant will develop the Web Portal using the Dashboard Manager, which is an integrated part of the Consultant’s DSS Platform and provides a point-and- click interface for developing web pages on top of the DSS data and modelling capabilities.

The web portal will be configured to display all relevant data from the Knowledge Base and the RTSF and ROS, including:  Historical and real-time hydro-meteorological time series.  Forecasts (river and reservoir stages and river flow) from the forecasting models  Observed and forecasted reservoir inflow and proposed releases  Gate operation strategies incl. real-time gate positions  Flood Inundation maps.

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The information will be available by clicking on GIS maps and basin schematics. Examples of customised web interfaces are given in Figure 4-19 and 4.20.

Figure 4-19: Customised Web Interface

Figure 4-20: Example of DHI’s Dashboard Manager driven web application with GIS and time series visualisation

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From the web-portal users will be able to:  navigate among different views through a menu system  select different stations within the basin and display e.g. RTDAS records and forecasts, including fact boxes for selected items  Report output from the latest executed stream-flow and reservoir operation forecast model output, displayed as time series, tables and GIS maps showing inundated areas

4.4.3 The Alert Module Alerting is a means of information dissemination, pushing information to specific staff and organisations for their immediate action. The DSS Platform logs all messages issued by processes such as real-time data import, simulation processes, publication processes and task execution processes and the Alert Module makes it possible to respond to any state in the system.

The Consultant will in corporation with WRD define relevant alarms, each to be triggered to raise the alarm and the associated system response. Examples of states that users can respond to are:

 Upward or downward real-time data thresholds  Upward or downward thresholds of selected simulation time series results  Premature termination of tasks, simulations and publications

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5 CAPACITY BUILDING 5.1 Introduction The goal of Capacity building is to ensure that by the end of the project WRD has a self sustaining team operating and maintaining the Real Time Streamflow Forecast and Reservoir Operation System (RTSF&ROS), with a strong internal structure, and links to external organisations with whom WRD can share experience, impart to and draw on external knowledge. As a process of needs analysis, a review of the existing organisations and institutional arrangement is made in the following sections. 5.2 Water Resources Department (WRD) Water Resources Department, formerly known as Irrigation Department of Government of Maharashtra has a glorious history of Irrigation over last 150 years. The Water Resources Department (WRD) is entrusted with the surface water resources planning, development and management. A large number of major, medium and minor water resources development projects have been constructed in Maharashtra. The State Water resources Department tackles Irrigation projects which irrigate area more than 250 ha.

In order to speed up the completion of irrigation projects, WRD has formed 5 Irrigation Development Corporations viz. Maharashtra Krishna Development Corporation (MKVDC), Vidarbha Irrigation Development Corporation (VIDC), Konkan Irrigation Development Corporation (KIDC), Godavari Marathwada Irrigation Development Corporation (GMIDC) and Tapi Irrigation Development Corporation (TIDC). The office of Director General at Nashik is responsible for Design, Training, Planning & Hydrology, Research and Survey. Under this office the Maharashtra Engineering Research Institute (MERI), Nashik conducts research in Civil Engineering and allied fields. The Water and Land Management Institute (WALMI) at Aurangabad is headed by Director General, which conducts the research and training in Water Management.

5.2.1 Planning & Hydrology The Office of Chief Engineer, Planning & Hydrology is located at Nashik and was established during Hydrology Project Phase-I. The Organisational set up of units of WRD involved in RTSF & ROS project is shown in Figure 5.1. Hydrology Project has developed and implemented a Hydrological Information System (HIS) through improvement and strengthening the infrastructure of Hydro-meteorological stations, training extensively the personnel involved and computerization of the data for meaningful analysis and dissemination to the users. The use of SWDES and HYMOS software in data entry and processing has resulted in giving out quality data. Figure 5.2 depicts a structure of HIS.

Development of hydrological database is supporting major aspects of State and Central level Water Policy particularly in: Water Allocation, Water Planning, Water Management and Water Quality Monitoring. The Hydrology Project has five data processing centres and 26 sub-divisional data processing centres with the main State Data Processing Centre and the State Data Storage Centre at Nashik.

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Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF & ROS

(Related to RTSF & ROS Project) ROS & RTSF to (Related

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Based on the database created under the Hydrology Project phase I (HP-I), Government of Maharashtra has authorized Hydrology Project organization to assess the yield for any project to be taken up and certify the water availability. The project can be sanctioned by any organization only if water availability is certified by this organization. One Water Planning Division has been assigned the work on yield computation of proposed schemes.

Figure 5-1 Structure of the Hydrologic Information System (HIS) of HP-I

5.2.2 The Basin Simulation Division (BSD) The Basin Simulation Division (BSD) at Pune was established in April, 2008 after recommendations of the Vadnere Committee for Real Time Streamflow and Flood Forecasting. The reservoirs in Maharashtra though not developed specifically as flood control reservoirs, they have moderated flood peaks to considerable extents by adopting proper reservoir operations. The reservoirs are multipurpose including hydropower, irrigation, domestic and industrial uses and are operated with rigid schedules as single entities based on the historical hydro-meteorological data and experience gained. These methods are often not adequate for establishing optimal operational decisions, especially where integrated operation of multiple reservoirs for flood management is contemplated. In addition, manual data observation and transmission results in a considerable time lag. The time taken between data observed in field and its communication to decision making level provides little time for flood forecasts. Therefore, under the Chief Engineer, Planning & Hydrology, the Basin Simulation Division has been established at Pune, which is 68 Inception Report Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF & ROS

engaged in upgrading the existing HIS with real time data acquisition system (RTDAS) for Krishna and Bhima basins and for the development and implementation of “Real Time Streamflow Forecasting and Reservoir Operation System.” The present Organizational set-up of Basin Simulation Division is given in Figure 5.3.

Figure 5-2 Organogram of the Basin Simulation Division, Pune BSD is headed by an Executive Engineer supported by administrative staff. At present there are four Assistant Engineers (Grade –I) and six Assistant Engineers (Grade-II). The six Assistant Engineers (Grade-II) are also assigned to sub- divisions in Shirur, Kohlapur, Sangli, Stara, Solapur and Pune. Table 5.1 presents the list of BSD Officers. The organisational aspects of the RTSF& ROS are of paramount importance for the sustainability of the established systems. It is important to foster an environment through training and participation in which WRD staff take ownership of the system. To sustain this it is critical to establish simple and well thought work processes ensuring optimal use of the capabilities of the modelling systems. The BSD is, therefore, considered as the key division of WRD in implementing the project and develop into a sustainable organisation in operating, maintaining and updating the modelling systems developed under the RTSF& ROS project. Therefore, the training needs assessment and institutional development plan is focussed at BSD.

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Table 5.1 List of Officers of BSD, Pune Sl. Name Designation Educational Responsibility / experience No Qualification 1 Dnyandeo A Executive M Tech.  In-charge of Basin Simulation Division, Pune. Network Bagade Engineer (Hydraulics & Investigation for RTDSS Maharashtra, ICB tendering for Water Resources procurement of consultancy, Goods and related services. Engineering) Responsible for execution of RTDSS work(Krishna and Bhima Basin)  In-charge of Hydro-meteorological Data processing division Nashik. Data dissemination activities.  Data collection, Validation, and management of Hydro- meteorological network of Ratnagiri District, Investigation of Irrigation project  Construction of LIS, canal works, survey works, rehabilitation works in Satara district. 2 Girish V Assistant Engineer M.E.(Construction  Hydrology Project, Network Investigation for RTDSS Nagarkar Gr-I & Management) Maharashtra, ICB tendering for procurement of Goods and related services.  Responsible for execution of RTDSS work (Bhima Basin) 3 Shivali D Assistant Engineer B.E.(Civil)  Responsible for execution of RTDSS work (Krishna Basin) Pardeshi Gr-I  Canal works  Design of civil structures 4 Deepgauri A Assistant Engineer B.E.(Civil)  Responsible for execution of RTDSS work (Krishna Basin) Joshi Gr-I

5 Mayur M Assistant Engineer B.E.(Civil)  Responsible for execution of RTDSS work (Bhima Basin) Mahajan Gr-I  Water supply works

6 Yojana B Assistant Engineer B.E.(Civil)  Network Investigation for RTDSS Maharashtra, ICB Patil Gr-II tendering for procurement of consultancy, Responsible for execution of RTDSS work (Krishna Basin)  Water quality validation, Hydro-meteorological Data validation

7 Rahul B Mali Assistant Engineer B.E.(Civil)  Responsible for execution of RTDSS work (Krishna Basin)

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Sl. Name Designation Educational Responsibility / experience No Qualification Gr-II  Irrigation Project Investigation

8 Sanjay G Assistant Engineer B.E.(Civil)  Responsible for execution of RTDSS work (Bhima Basin) Bhakt Gr-II  Irrigation Project Investigation in Krishna Basin.  Hydro-meteorological data processing 9 Sushma D Assistant Engineer B.E.(Civil)  Network Investigation for RTDSS Maharashtra, ICB Meshram Gr-II tendering for procurement of Goods and related services, Responsible for execution of RTDSS work (Bhima Basin)  Hydro-meteorological Data validation

10 Asish S B.E.(Civil)  HP Pune Sub-division Jadhav  Hydro-meteorological data 11 C S Desai B.E.(Civil)  HP Kolhapur Sub-division  Hydro-meteorological data

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5.2.3 Training Needs assessment The training needs assessment of the officers at BSD is based on the educational background, professional experience and the requirements of the RTSF&ROS project during the development stage as well as during actual operation. If as proposed, the officers are fully engaged with the consultant’s experts during the development period, then they are expected to be capable of operating the system. However, since this is the first time the officers will be taking a new responsibility, they will need technical back up support from DHI for certain period after the system is installed. This has been taken care of in the project by planning a technical support period (including helpdesk support at DHI) for a period of 2 years after instalment of the system. Table 5.2 shows a training needs assessment related to the tasks of the project. Table 5.2 Training Needs Assessment

Project Task Training Need in Subjects General level of present staff of BSD Task 1: None adequate Review Current Forecasting and Operational Capabilities Task 2 Data processing, verification, database Basic Knowledge Base systems, working with GIS and Remote Development sensing data Task 3 Hydrology, hydraulics, GIS, Mostly basic, a Real-Time Streamflow / hydrological modelling, hydrodynamic new staff with Flood Forecasting Model modelling including flood forecast expertise in (NAM, MIKE11, MIKEBASIN). meteorology and forecasting will be required. Task 4 DSS, river basin modelling Basic Reservoir Operational (MIKEBASIN) reservoir operation Guidance System modelling. Task 5 Internet technologies, web design and Basic, a new staff Communication and update with ICT Information Management expertise will be Systems required at BSD

5.3 Institutional Development Plan 5.3.1 Proposed Setup and Functions of BSD The Basin Simulation Division will be responsible to maintain all the data and models developed in the present project. Regular updating of the models including timely validation as new data becomes available will also be the responsibility of

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BSD. The operational control room will be central operations room for BSD. Therefore, BSD will perform the following functions:  Operation and maintenance of the Data Acquisition System (Responsibility of HPD, Pune)  Management of the central Database  Meteorological analysis and forecast  Hydrologic and hydraulic analyses of the basin  Update of the hydrologic and hydrodynamic models  Operation and maintenance of real time forecasting systems (inflow and flood)  Operation and maintenance of the reservoir operation guidance system  Communication and information dissemination These functions should be performed by the assistant engineering staff with one executive engineer as the manager of BSD. The engineering staff will take turns to manage the operational control room. Additional staff might be required to man the operational control room round the clock during critical situations. In addition to the existing assistant engineers, it is recommended to employ two more staff at BSD: 1) Meteorologist, 2) ICT Expert. The proposed meteorologist should have a postgraduate degree in meteorology/climatology with expertise in rainfall forecasting and satellite data applications in meteorology. The ICT expert should have a graduate degree in computer science/engineering with expertise in information communication, web design and updates. It is proposed to organise BSD into the following sub-divisions/sections. Also shown in Figure 5.4 is the proposed Organogram. No. Sub-div/Section Functions Responsible Other staff Officer 1 Operational Operation of the forecast Assistant Assistant Eng. Control Room and reservoir operation Engineer (Gr-I) (Gr-II), guidance system. Meteorologist, ICT Expert, Office Assistant 2 Meteorological Management of Meteorologist forecast meteorological data, Analysis of meteorological conditions of the basins, Compilation of rainfall forecasts. 3 Database Acquisition of hydro-met, Assistant 2 Assistant river, reservoir, GIS and Engineer (Gr-I) Engineers satellite data and (Gr-II) database maintenance

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4 Modelling Maintain and update of Assistant 4 Assistant all models including DSS Engineer (Gr-I) Engineer (Gr- and reservoir operation II) system 5 Information Communication of ICT expert Management forecasts, reservoir operation guidance system, dissemination of flood forecasts, web page management and updates.

Figure 5-3 Proposed Organogram of BSD

5.3.2 Operational Control Room The Operational Control Room will be located at the 2nd floor of Sinchan Bhawan, Pune together with the RTDAS Data Centre. Out of a total floor area of 1,000 sft, the operation control room will occupy about 400 sft. The control room will be linked to the BSD at the 4th floor with LAN. Both the BSD and the Control Room will have dedicated broadband internet connectivity. The communication between BSD and the Control Room should preferably be via intranet in addition to the general purpose internet for links with all stakeholders. It is expected that all important reservoir operation offices and related decision making offices in Pune, Nashik, Mumbai and other districts have broadband Internet connectivity so that

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communications to and from the control room is efficient and transparent. It is expected that the Operational Control Room and hence the staff will be active beyond the monsoon season. Water resources monitoring will be required for droughts as well as for optimal management of the river basins. Figures 5.5 and 5.6 show a schematic layout of the Control Room with tentative dimensions.

Figure 5-4 Plan of the Operational Control Room

Figure 5-5 3-D View of the Operational Control Room

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WRD will develop the physical infrastructure including uninterrupted power supply, air-conditioning, window and door curtains/blinds and broadband internet connection. The RTSF&ROS Consultant will provide the following equipment and furniture: Two (2) high performance Servers with UPS: 1 data server, 1 web server Two (2) high performance PCs with UPS One (1) high resolution wall mounted LCD display One (1) high resolution web camera with Skype based video conferencing facility One (1) printer with table One (1) semi-circular/oval desk suitable for such a control room Four (4) revolving chairs for operators and staff One (1) conference table and eight revolving chairs The data server will be linked to the computer in which processed real time data from the RTDAS Data Centre are stored. It is also expected that BSD will have a similar servers and PCs for back up and mirroring databases and modelling systems.

5.3.3 Capacity Building and Training Plan during the Project An integrated capacity building and technology transfer is being adopted during the project period. The main components of the integrated capacity building are: formal training on theoretical concepts and practical modelling tools, on-the-job training, Workshops, International technical and study tours, technical and hotline support during a period of 2 years after installation of the RTSF&RO system.

5.3.4 On-the-job training In addition to the proposed formal training activities, all BSD officers and the executive engineer will be engaged in the activities of the consultants. In order to facilitate “learning by doing” The consultant’s office is provided with adequate space for BSD officers to work together with the consultant’s experts. It is proposed that the BSD officers are assigned with primary responsibilities of working together with Consultant’s experts in the following field. However, these staff will also learn other areas during training and also during on-the-job training.  Data management including GIS & Remote Sensing data: 2 officers

 Rainfall – Runoff Modelling: 2 officers

 Hydrodynamic (river) Modelling: 2 officers

 Inflow Forecasting and Reservoir Operation: 2 officers

 Flood forecasting: 2 officers

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5.3.5 Training Courses The proposed training courses cover both theoretical concepts of hydrology and hydraulics, data management, remote sensing and GIS tools, modelling tools and reservoir operation guidance system. A training programme is presented in Table 5.3. It is also proposed that BSD officers attend some of the training courses offered by the National Water Academy (NDA) based in Pune. In order to enhance relevancy, the consultant staff will also deliver some of the training courses in coordination with NWA. The officers of BSD will also be encouraged to attend relevant courses in other institutions in India on GIS, remote sensing, water resources management, disaster management, ICT, Computer applications, web design, database management etc.

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Table 5.3 Proposed Training Programme

No Duration / Topic / Venue Trainers Participants date contents 1 4 days Introduction to Remote sensing & GIS BSD Consultant Executive Engineer, and 8 and application to water resources staff (Dr. officers of BSD (9 persons) 27-30 Sept. Pandit) 2011 2 1 day Introduction to modelling RTSF&ROS Consultant Executive Engineer, and 8 Consultant’s staff (Guna officers of BSD (9 persons) 20 Oct. 2011 Project office, Paudyal, Pune Finn Hansen) 3 1 week Decision Support System (DSS) NWA, Experts of Executive Engineer, and 2 Khadakwasla, DSS officers of BSD (3 persons) 16-20 Jan. Pune (planning) 2012 Project 4 1 week Flood Forecast technology including NWA NWA 4 officers of BSD inflow forecast Khadakwasla, Faculty 5-9 Dec. (this course was missed), Pune 2011 will consider future events. 5 3 days Hydraulics: Open Channels, Control RTSF&ROS Consultant 8 officers of BSD Structures Consultant’s staff (Guna 22-24 Dec. Project office, Paudyal) 2011 Pune 6 3 days Hydrology: Concepts of rainfall runoff, RTSF&ROS Consultant Executive Engineer, and 8 met forecasts, rainfall runoff modelling Consultant’s staff officers of BSD (9 persons) Jan. 2012 using NAM Project office, Pune 7 3 days Hydrodynamic Modelling using MIKE11, RTSF&ROS Consultant Executive Engineer, and 8 structure operation, flood forecasting Consultant’s staff (Finn officers of BSD (9 persons) Jan 2012 Project office, Hansen)

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No Duration / Topic / Venue Trainers Participants date contents 7 3 days GIS & remote sensing: Use of GIS spatial RTSF&ROS Consultant 8 officers of BSD data, sources of data, image processing Consultant’s staff (Dr. Feb. 2012 Project office Pandit) 8 1 week Flood Disaster Management NWA NWA 4 officers of BSD Khadakwasla, Faculty, March 2012 Pune Consultant’s experts 9 3 days Hydrodynamic modelling, flood mapping RTSF&ROS Consultant BSD officers and officers Consultant’s staff (Finn from other stakeholders (CE March 2012 Project office Hansen) offices) 10 3 days Development of real time DSS, RTSF and RTSF&ROS Consultant Executive Engineer & 8 ROS system Consultant’s staff officers of BSD (9 persons), June 2012 Project office other stakeholders 11 1 week Application of RTDSS in real time stream BSD, Pune Consultant Executive Engineer & 8 flow forecasting and reservoir operation staff officers of BSD (9 persons), Nov-Dec other stakeholders 2012 12 1-3 days Operation of the RTSF&RO system, BSD Pune DHI All officers, several maintenance, troubleshooting ( as & courses. Feb 2012- when required during the technical Jan 2014 support period) four training courses to be planned in consultation with WRD.

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5.3.6 Workshops Workshops are important forums for consultation as well as capacity building of stakeholders. In this project a series of workshops will be conducted. Three workshops, namely, Inception, Interim and Final will be organised as general workshop with a large number of stakeholders. Two workshops will be of more technical nature in which only WRD officials and selected and most relevant stakeholders will be invited. As stipulated in the contract, the Workshop will be arranged by client and will be facilitated by resource experts from consultant.

3 8 10 12 15 17 Figure 5-6 Schedule of Workshops (showing the timing in month in blue)

Table 5.4 Plan of Workshops Sl. Workshop Date Activities No. 1 Inception 7 December Presentation of Inception Report, Workshop 2011 stakeholder consultation, further needs assessment, feedback on approach & methodology and on capacity building plan. 2 Interim First week of Presentation of Interim Report, Workshop April 2012 feedback on the modelling systems developed. 3 Workshop Mid-June Demonstration of the knowledge on 2012 base and knowledge management Knowledge system, review of the RT DAS and base & plan to incorporate the real time data data into the forecasting and reservoir manageme operation systems. nt 4 Workshop Mid- Demonstration of the modelling system, on flow September. comments & discussion on the system, and flood 2012 including the forecasting formats and flood forecasting mapping, suggestions to incorporate into the final version of the forecasting system.

5 Workshop Last week of Demonstration of the Reservoir on November Operation Guidance system, Reservoir 2012 comments and discussion on the Operation system, suggestions for incorporation Guidance into the final version of the Reservoir and Operational Guidance System. The communi- cation / communication and information 80 Inception Report Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF & ROS

web portal management system including web portal will also be demonstrated in this workshop.

6 Final 1st week Feb Presentation of Final Report, Workshop 2013 feedback/comments/suggestions in the Final Report, evaluation of project achievement, finalisation of technical support for the next two years of system operation. the project deliverables

5.3.7 International technical training cum study visits It is proposed to conduct two technical study visits to two batches of technical officers with six participants in each batch. Each of the technical training cum visit will be of 2 weeks duration. It is also proposed that each group may be led by an Executive Engineer. The tentative programme of the two week training cum study visit is given below. The first batch of technical officers will go on the visit during 5 to 18 February 2012 and the second batch during 11 to 24 March 2012. Week 1: Training at DHI Denmark The technical officers will receive training from DHI experts on real time stream flow forecasting, reservoir operation, flood mapping and flood forecasting, and on modelling and web based water resources information management. They will be presented with examples of real time forecasting systems from all over the world based on DHI’s work. Various experts of DHI will be available for interactive sessions with the participants. Week 2: Technical visit to Austria and Slovenia The first part of the technical visit will be conducted near Vienna, Austria where the participants will visit the International Forecasting Centre in Graz. An automated river forecasting system is working in three different basins in Styria, namely the Mur, Raab and Enns rivers. The forecasting system is based on MIKE11, similar to the system proposed to be implemented in the Krishna and Bhima river basins. A field visit will be conducted in two basins (Mur and Raab) to study the real time data acquisition systems. The second part of the technical visit will be conducted in Slovenia. The participants will be taken to the meteorological Office and the Forecasting Centre in Ljubljana, Slovenia. A Mike11 based real time forecasting system is operation for two river basins, namely Sava and Soca. Field visits will be organised in these river basins to observed the telemetric network. The telemetry systems in these basins are being upgraded since 2010 to utilise the latest technology available in the market. The timing of the above technical training cum visits will be finalised in consultation with WRD. However, it is recommended that the visits be conducted between January and May 2012 so that the technical staff of WRD get an early exposure while the modelling work is being carried out in the RTSF&ROS Project. Inception Report 81 RTSF & ROS Krishna & Bhima River Basins

5.3.8 International Study Tour It is proposed to organise a study tour for eight senior officials of WRD to observe real time forecasting and reservoir operation systems. The study tour will be of 1 week duration including travel days. Two alternate locations are being considered at this stage. Further discussion with WRD is required to finalise the timing, venue and budget for the study tour. The study tour is proposed to be conducted during 12 to 18 February 2012. 1. USA: to observe and interact with officials and experts in California where several water resources system use real time data for optimal operation of reservoirs, examples are: Black Canyon Irrigation District, Napa Valley in San Francisco; Blackfoot Reservoir command area, a fully automated systems for water release pattern. In terms of real-time flood forecasting systems, most US Army Corps of Engineers and US Bureau of Reclamation Reservoirs in the Pacific Northwest and California have such systems 2. South Africa: to observe real time reservoir and river operations in the Orange-Fish Sundays River Basin. The Orange-Fish-Sundays River System in the Eastern Cape consists of an extensive system of canals, tunnels, rivers, dams, and diversion weirs. Water is transferred from the Orange River to the Great Fish River through a tunnel 83 km long. The main purpose of this transfer is to satisfy irrigation demands. Due to a general water shortage as well as problems arising from highly saline return flows, it became necessary to make a real time model that could assist the operators in deriving release hydrographs from the dams and diversion weirs. These hydrographs will ensure that the irrigators receive the right quantity and quality of water when required using a minimum amount of water. The hydrographs will also ensure that the reservoir water levels are kept within required limits during normal operation and that excess water during flooding is diverted to reservoirs with any storage capacity left. Finally the hydrographs also ensures a minimum downstream flow. A comprehensive real time operational (including optimization) water management system is implemented in this basin to enable operators to optimize release hydrographs throughout the system.

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6 PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION PLAN 6.1 Activity Schedule A summary of the schedule of project’s main tasks as stipulated in the contract is shown in Figure 6-1. In order to complete the main tasks, each task is further divided into sub-tasks or activities, the schedule of which is given in Figure 6-2. Figure 6-3 presents the schedule of reports and deliverables. The schedules presented in figures 6-1 through 6-3 are as stipulated in the contract and at this stage, there is no reason to modify them. However, there are a few critical paths in the schedules, which are related to the availability of data in time: 1. Availability of historical data (for model development & calibration) 2. Availability of river cross section data from the proposed new river survey programme of WRD (for the development of the MIKE11 flood forecasting models) 3. Availability of real time data on time from the RTDAS contract. In order to develop the real time inflow forecasting, reservoir operation system and flood forecasting, the proposed telemetry data must be received at the data centre latest from the beginning of the monsoon season of 2012.

Figure 6-1 Overall Schedule of Project Tasks

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Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Task duration

Task Task Name

20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Task input 1 Review of Current Forecasting and Operational Capabilities Workshop 1.1 Review Current Capabilities of WRD On-going 1.2 Identify Needs of WRD and Stakeholders 1.3 Review Basin Management Tools 1.4 Hydro-Climatological Data and Management System 1.5 Scenarios for Optimal Operation 1.6 Institutional Capacity of WRD 2 Knowledge Base Development 2.1 Functional Specifications of Knowledge Base 2.2 Design and Develop Database Management System 2.3 Develop Knowledge Base 2.4 Develop Knowledge System 3 Real Time Streamflow/Flood Forecasting Model (RTSF) 3.1 Develop simulation models 3.2 Integration with Forecasts and Real Time Data 3.3 Identify Critical River Reaches and Monitoring 3.4 Flood Mapping 4 Reservoir Operational Guidance System (ROS) 4.1 Develop Optimisation Models 4.2 Operational Guidance System 5 Communications and Information Management Systems 5.1 Communication strategy and protocol 5.2 Design and prepare specifications for Operational Control Room 5.3 Develop Web Portal 6 Capacity Building and Training 6.1 Engage WRD Staff in System Development 6.2 Training Programme 6.3 Workshops 6.4 International Study Tours 6.5 System Documentation and Manuals 6.6 Technical Support 6.7 Strategy for Long Term Sustainability Provide RT-DSS Technical Support Figure 6-2 Detailed schedule of activities / sub-tasks

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Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Final deliverable

Deliverables

20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Workshop or meeting Monthly Progress Reports Demo Monthly Progress Report including: Draft deliverable Progress on Each Task to Date Tasks to be Taken Up in Coming Months Issues for Discussion with WRD Inception Report Inception Report; including Assessment of Needs of WRD and Stakeholders System Management Tools - Modelling Concept Review of Available Data and Strategies to Fill Gaps - Metadata Document Definition of Key Scenarios Training and Capacity Building Programme Detailed Project Implementation Plan Interim Report Knowledge Base Development and Management System Functional Specifications for Knowledge System Design of Database Management System Knowledge Base Flow and Flood Forecasting Models Modelling System Calibration and Recommendations for Additional Data Real Time Data Collection and Processing Data Assimilation and Flow Forecasting Identification of Critical Reaches Flood Mapping Reservoir Operational Guidance System Optimisation Methodology Optimisation Objectives and Constraints Demonstration Cases Communication and Information Management System Communications Strategy and Protocol Design and Specifications for Operational Control Room Web Portal and Alert System Capacity Building and Training On-the-Job Training Formal Training Programme Workshop Programme International Study Tours Programme User and Reference Manuals Final Report Final Reporting on all Outputs covered in the Interim Report, plus: Summary of Project Activities Summary of Workshop Procedings Programme for Technical Support Strategy for Sustainability and Enhancement Tecnical Support Quarterly Reports WRD Training Programme Knowledge Base Updates and Model Recalibration Support Issues Raised with Help Desk Figure 6-3 Schedule of Reports & Deliverables

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6.2 Project Management 6.2.1 Project Organisation The basis of the project organisation is a close partnership between WRD/BSD and the consultant, which will ensure maximum efficiency in project execution, and in long term sustainability. The organisation of the consultant’s team is shown in Figure 6-4. The Team Leader has overall responsibility for the planning and execution of the project, and achieving the desired outputs. The Team Leader is also responsible for day to day project management. The Team Leader is based in Pune, with an input of 67% of full time over the eighteen month project period. The Team Leader is assisted by the Deputy Team Leader, who is also based long term in Pune. The deputy is involved in all project matters, and will take over project management while the Team Leader is absent from the project. The other members of the project team comprise five Principal Experts: Data Acquisition System, Snow and Glacial Melt, Water Resources RTDSS, Reservoir Operations and Decision Support System. The latter expert will manage the DSS Development.

Figure 6-4 Consultant's Organisation The consultant’s staffing for each task is given in Table 6.1 with an overall Staff Schedule shown in Figure 6-5.

Table 6.1 Consultant Staff Responsibilities for main Tasks

Main task / sub-tasks Main Responsibility Inputs

Task 1 Guna Paudyal D Pandit, Finn Hansen Review Current Forecasting and Operational Capabilities Task 2: Knowledge Base Development 2.1 Functional specification of Finn Hansen Hemant Warad, A Klinting, 86 Inception Report Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF & ROS

Main task / sub-tasks Main Responsibility Inputs

knowledge base J Larsen, D Pandit 2.2-2.4 Design & develop Finn Hansen, Hemant Warad , H Muller, J knowledgebase and management Larsen, A Klinting, D system Pandit, K Patil, Pravanjan Task 3: Real-Time Streamflow / Flood Forecasting Model 3.1 Develop simulation models 3.1 (a) Rainfall-runoff models Gregers Jorgensen Saso Petan, D Pandit, K (NAM) Patil 3.2 (b) River basin simulation Roar Jensen D Pandit, K Patil models (MIKEBASIN) 3.1 (c) Hydrodynamic models Finn Hansen Prasanta Kadam, A (MIKE11) Prabhanjan 3.2 Identify critical river reaches Finn Hansen D Pandit for real time monitoring 3.3 Integrate with forecast & real Finn Hansen Gregers Jorgensen time data (RTDAS) 3.4 Data assimilation for Finn Hansen Gregers Jorgensen forecasts 3.5 Flood Mapping Finn Hansen Prasanta Kadam, A Prabhanjan Task 4: Reservoir Operational Guidance System 4.1 Develop Optimisation C. Pedersen H. Muller models 4.2 Establish operational J Larsen H. Muller, A. Klinting guidance system Task 5: Communication and Information Management Systems 5.1 Develop communication Gregers Jorgensen Finn Hansen, H. Muller, strategy & Protocol for Guna Paudyal information dissemination 5.2 Design and prepare Hemant Warad Gregers Jorgensen operational control room 5.3 Develop web portal for Gregers Jorgensen Finn Hansen, Hemant RTSF& ROS Warad

Task 6: Capacity Building and Training 6.1 On-the-job training (engaging Guna Paudyal All members of the Team WRD staff in the development) 6.2 Preparation & conductions of Guna Paudyal All members of the Team training programme 6.3 Facilitation of Workshops Guna Paudyal All members of the Team organised by WRD 6.4 (a) Organisation of Guna Paudyal DHI’s pool of experts international study tours for senior WRD staff 6.4 (5) Organisation of Guna Paudyal DHI’s pool of experts international training cum technical visit for Technical staff 6.5 System documentation and Guna Paudyal, Finn DHI’s pool of experts

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Main task / sub-tasks Main Responsibility Inputs

manuals Hansen

6.6 Technical support, with Claus Skotner Hans Enggrob further training courses and hotline support

6.7 Preparation of a strategy Guna Paudyal Claus Skotner, Hans for long term sustainability Enggrob and enhancement of the developed system

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Figure 6-5 Schedule of Consultant’s Personnel

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6.3 Quality Assurance 6.3.1 Quality Management at DHI All activities of DHI are conducted in accordance with internationally accepted principles for quality management as described in the DS/EN ISO 9001 standard. The corner stone of the quality system at DHI is the quality manual presenting the DHI objectives, policies, history and organisation.

6.3.2 Quality Assurance Plan A Quality Assurance Plan (QAP) has been prepared for the Krishna-Bhima RTSF&ROS project. The QAP describing the procedures to be applied by all team members in order to ensure the quality of the services to be rendered, and to define the responsibility and authority of all key personnel within the organisation.

The responsibility for the implementation of the QAP is with the Team Leader. Quality assurance is the responsibility of all team members, who will be familiar with the plan and comply with the procedures. Quality control and adherence to the quality procedures are being reviewed periodically by the Home Office Backup and Quality Control Officer and findings and recommendations are reported to the Team Leader.

Claus Skotner of DHI Head Office, Horsholm, Denmark has been appointed as the Quality Control Officer. Hans Enggrob, Technical Director of DHI (India) has the overall responsibility of project management. All major deliverables and reports are approved by the Technical Director prior to submission to the client.

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6.4 Requirements from WRD 6.4.1 Data Collection and Processing

(6) Obtain hydro-meteorological, hydrometric, topographic, reservoir, structures, irrigation, satellite and GIS data from internal and external organisations, as requested by the consultants. (7) Implement the river cross section survey programme on time so that the cross sections are available for the development of hydrodynamic models and flood forecasting system. Ensure that the cross section data are provided in digital form for direct import to the MIKE11 database. (8) Discussion and development of a mechanism with NCMRWF regarding the application of meteorological forecasting models.

6.4.2 RTDAS The contract for installing RTDAS has been signed in October 2011 with an aim of completing the whole system including establishment of a data Centre at WRD Pune within a period of 18 months. However, considering the requirements of the RTSF&ROS project, the RTDAS contractors have agreed and assured that real time data from most of the key stations will start flowing to the data centre from early June 2012. WRD will have to pay special attention to ensure the execution of this project is handled efficiently by all concerned, and complete the installation within the stipulated time so that validated hydro-meteorological data are made available at the data centre in real time from early June 2012. Any delay will curtail the period allowed for development and installation of the RTSF&ROS in time.

6.4.3 Coordination with other stakeholders Coordination with other stakeholders such as reservoir operators, irrigation, flood control cell, district administration, CWC, IMD, NCRWMF, NWA etc. is required for exchange of information as well implementation of the real time forecasting system and reservoir operation guidance system.

6.4.4 Dissemination of River Flow and Flood Forecasts Among the outputs of the RTSF&RSO will be forecasts of inflows to the reservoirs and water level forecasts along the river courses. These forecasts will be disseminated in real time (on the world wide web). Many agencies may access these forecasts for their own operations. BSD with the activities of the operational control room should ensure that the forecasts are provided efficiently and accurately to a wide audience.

6.4.5 Establish Operational Control Room and RT Data Centre The establishment of the Operational Control Room together with the real time Data Centre under the RTDAS project is of prime importance for the successful implementation of the project. WRD has allocated a space of 1,000 sft in the second floor of Sinchan Bhavan. The physical infrastructure of the room should be completed in time including the provision of uninterrupted power supply,

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broadband Internet connection, LAN connecting BSD and other important offices and the RTDAS Data Centre.

6.4.6 Workshops and Training WRD is requested to organise the proposed workshops as planned with support from the consultant. The related staff should also be allowed to undertake training courses as proposed by the consultant. International study tours for senior officers and technical training and study visits for technical officers should be implemented as proposed.

6.4.7 Engagement of BSD staff with the Consultant As part of on-the-job training, it is of paramount importance that BSD officers are fully engaged with the experts of the Consultant’s team during the development of various models and forecasting systems. 6.5 Project Monitoring

Monthly Progress Reports are submitted by the consultants. These are reviewed by WRD/BSD. Other reports where project monitoring is also done are Inception report, interim report and the final report. A Review Committee has been constituted by WRD to monitoring progress, discuss the execution of project activities, discuss possible deviations to the programme, identify problems and obstacles to progress, and to implement solutions to remove the obstacles and problems. Regular meetings are held between the consultants and BSD to monitor the progress of activities. These meetings are conducted as and when required in order to accomplish the project outputs smoothly.

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7 REFERENCES

/1/ Contract, RTDSS: HP II/MAHA (SW)/2/2011, INDIA: HYDROLOGY PROJECT PHASE –II, (Loan No: 4749-IN), Consultancy services for implementation of a Real Time Streamflow Forecasting and Reservoir Operation System for the Krishna and Bhima River basins in Maharashtra, 2011.

/2/ Technical Offer, Loan No: 4749-IN, RFP No. : HP II/MAHA (SW)/2, Consultancy services for implementation of a Real Time Streamflow Forecasting and Reservoir Operation System for the Krishna and Bhima River basins in Maharashtra, 2011.

/3/ Request for Proposal, RFP: HP II/MAHA (SW)/2/, INDIA: HYDROLOGY PROJECT PHASE –II, (Loan No: 4749-IN), Consultancy services for implementation of a Real Time Streamflow Forecasting and Reservoir Operation System for the Krishna and Bhima River basins in Maharashtra, 2011.

/4/ DHI (India) Water & Environment, Monthly Progress Report-1, RTSF& ROS, September 2011.

/5/ DHI (India) Water & Environment, Monthly Progress Report-2, RTSF& ROS, October 2011.

/6/ Government of Maharashtra, Water Resources Department, Report on precise determination of reservoir releases during emergency situation in the State by Technical Committee. May 2007.

/7/ Bidding documents for Procurement of Goods and Related Services for Supply, Installation, Testing, Commissioning and Maintenance of Real Time Data Acquisition System for the Krishna and Bhima River Basins in Maharashtra, ICB No: HP II / MAHA (SW) / 1, India: Hydrology Project Phase-II, (Loan: 4749-IN), Chief Engineer, Hydrology Project, Government of Maharashtra, 2011.

/8/ National Institute of Hydrology / DHI. Development of Decision Support System for Integrated Water Resources Development and Management, Inception Report, DSS (Planning) Project, Hydrology Project-II, 2009.

/9/ Water Resources Department, Government of Maharashtra. Documents of various Reservoirs.

/10/ National Institute of Hydrology (NIH), Development of Decision Support System for Integrated Water Resources Development and Management, Interim Report, DHI, June 2011.

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/11/ Bhakra Beas Management Board, Real Time Decision Support System for Operational Management of BBMB Reservoirs. DSS Software Development Specifications. DHI. October 2009.

/12/ Government of Maharashtra, Irrigation Department, Dam Safety manual Chapter 2, Identification of causes of failures in Dams and their appurtenant structure, 1995.

/13/ Government of Maharashtra, Irrigation Department, Dam Safety manual Chapter 7, Flood forecasting, reservoir operation and Gate Operation,1984.

/14/ Government of Maharashtra, Irrigation Department, Dam Safety manual Chapter 8, Preparedness for Dealing with emergency situations on dams, 1984. /15/ Government of Maharashtra, Irrigation Department, Dams in Maharashtra, 2000. /16/ Maharashtra Water and Irrigation Commission Report, 1999.

/17/ Raghunath, H.M. Hydrology: Principles, Analysis, Design. New Age Publishers, 2006.

/18/ World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), Guide to Meteorological Instruments & Methodology of Observations (6th edition) WMO-No. 8, 1996.

/19/ Website: www.imd.gov.in /20/ Website: www.punefloodcontrol.com /21/ Website: [email protected] /22/ Website: www.ncmrwf.gov.in /23/ Website: www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/ /24/ Website: www.nrsc.gov.in /25/ Website: www.mahawrd.org /26/ Website: www.idrn.gov.in /27/ Website: www.ndma.gov.in /28/ Website: www.mdmu.maharashtra.gov.in /29/ Website: www.trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov /30/ Website: www.cgwb.gov.in /31/ Website: www.mahahp.org /32/ Website: www.isro.gov.in /33/ Website: www.trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov

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APPENDIX A.1: REVIEW OF PAST FLOODS 2005 floods Due to heavy of rains in the catchment of Krishna, Warna and, Panchganga rivers between July 23 to August 07, 2005, the Sangli and Kolhapur districts were flooded extensively. Mahabaleswar from where Krishna and Koyna rivers originate, 460 mm rainfall was received within 24 hours on 2nd August, 2005. Total rainfall of 3260 mm (half of the total average annual rainfall) was recorded between in 16 days starting from last week of July to first week of August. Similarly due to extreme rainfall in the catchments of Koyna, Warna, Dhom, Radhanagari and other dams in the region, the reservoirs were almost full and water was required to be released through spillway gates to downstream in Sangli and Kolhapur districts. Sangli city is worst affected due to flooding. 2006 floods The area which were worst affected during these floods were again Sangli and Kolhapur District in Krishna basin and Pandharpur city on river Bhima sub-basin Most of the Sangli city adjoining to river Krishna was under water for more than 15 days. Water remained in and around the city for a longer duration than the floods that have occurred previous years. This was due to heavy rainfall continuously occurring over the entire basin for a period of nearly three weeks. The floods in the major rivers and streams occurred simultaneously increased the magnitude of the flood. The river Krishna and all its tributaries like Warna, Panchganga, Koyna were flowing with peak flows, causing the inundation of the low lying areas during period 25 June to 15 July, 2006. The Revyachiwadi rain station in Kolhapur district recorded 458 mm of rainfall on 5th July, 2006, whereas a total of 1,174 mm rainfall was recorded during last week of June and second week of August. Many areas in Pune city were flooded, notable ones recorded were around the Aundh bridge, Pashan ( photograhs).

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APPENDIX A.2: TYPICAL FLOOD INFORMATION FORM THE FLOOD CONTROL CELL, WRD PUNE

GOVERNMENT OF MAHARASHTRA, WATER RESOURCES DEPARTMENT CHIEF ENGINEER, WATER RESOURCES, PUNE, PUNE IRRIGATION CIRCLE, PUNE KHADAKWASLA IRRIGATION DIVISION, PUNE REPORT OF BHIMA BASIN PHONE NO- 020-26127309, 020-26127062 Thursday 02 Sept 2011 Time 8.00 A.M.

Executive Director Shri D. R. Kandi, Executive Director, MKVDC, Pune Ph 9371235627

Nodal officer of Bhima Basin Shri S.M. Upase, Chief Engineer, Water Resources, Pune Ph 9767527069

Nodal officer for Shri C. A. Birajdar, Chief Engineer (SP), Water Resources, Krishna Basin Pune Ph 9370324412

Nodal officer for Shri A.V. Surve, Superintending Engineer, Pune Irrigation Pune District Circle, Pune Ph 9822317100

Nodal officer for Shri B. M. Sonwalkar, Superintending Engineer and Solapur District Administrator, CADA, Solapur Ph 9422461508

Nodal officer for Shri S. N. Bolbhat, Executive Engineer, Khadakwasla flood control cell Irrigation Division, Pune Ph 9371235625

The Website of the Pune Flood Control Cell (www.punefloodcontrol.com )provides the below information. However, some anamolies in the tables and data are noted, which needs to be checked and corrected by the flood cell.

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Screen dumps form www.punefloodcontrol.com (31 October 2011)

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APPENDIX A.3: KOYANA RESERVOIR OPERATION SYSTEM

The reservoir operations of Koyna and Warna dams have been considered very critical with the background of the severe floods of year 2005 and 2006 in Krishna River and its tributaries inundating downstream town, cities and agricultural lands. Reservoir operation schedule for Koyna Reservoir was studied by the Technical committee with four methods of working out dependable yields as given above. The required data is available with the Koyna Project authorities since year 1961.

Dependable Yields Based on the procedure for preparation of guide curves as per Dam Safety Manual Chapter: 7, the dependable yields for the various period ‘intervals’ were found to be on lower side, resulting into higher guide curve levels since beginning of monsoon with limited scope for flood moderation. The procedure appears to have been prescribed considering mainly the priority to conservation storage. Flood moderation concept is given lower priority. The working of proper dependable yields/ inflows for the various period intervals plays very crucial role in preparation of reservoir operation schedule.

The concept of dependable yield is considering the inflows in a whole year i.e. dependable year. The planning of project is done with this concept. The yield series have to be prepared for various monsoon period intervals considering the cumulative yields from beginning of monsoon or by working backwards from the end of monsoon. This method considers the overall pattern of rainfall by making integration of bad, normal and good periods. Attempt has been made to compare the guide curves worked out by various methodologies for working out the dependable yields for the various period intervals. The dependable yields for the various periods are worked out by following four methods.

1) Each period interval as a dependable period 2) Cumulative yields from beginning of monsoon 3) Average pattern of distribution of monsoon inflows 4) Cumulative yields by working backwards from the end of monsoon.

Aspects and Steps in preparation of Koyna ROS In addition to Hydropower generation, is planned for irrigation at 90% dependability as a conservation storage. This project is a lifeline of the State. The 90% dependable monsoon yield is calculated as 2505.57 Mm3 as against the planning of 2764.75 Mm3 utilization excluding 77.48mm3 post monsoon inflow assumed in project planning. The technical Team found that the present dependability was 83% considering inflow data of 1961-2004. There is a provision of 319.98 mm3 carry over storage to meet the shortages during very lean years. The following aspects were considered in preparation of ROS for Koyna Reservoir.

(a) Inflow data of year 1961 to 2004 period is considered for study (b) Average of last ten years (1995 to 2004) actual westward diversions are taken as withdrawals for monsoon period Inception Report 105 RTSF & ROS Krishna & Bhima River Basins

(c) Upper and lower guide curves are based on 100% and 90% dependability respectively in view of reservoir planning at 90% dependability and the project is a lifeline of the State. (The project authorities have prepared upper guide curve at 90% dependable yield). (d) Fortnightly period intervals are considered for preparation of guide curves (e) Dependable yields for various fortnightly periods are worked out by four methods (a, b, c, d) as described above. (f) Date of attainment of FRL is decided by working backwards from the end of monsoon or last fortnightly period and arriving at the period which has a surplus inflow at 100% dependability. (g) Guide curves are prepared based on full reservoir level at 657.91 m (i.e. without steel flaps) (h) Guide curves are worked out for monsoon period (1st June to 31st October)

Methodology for dependable monsoon yields The monsoon yields at 100% dependability with different methodologies work out as below:  638.47mm3 - Each fortnightly period as a dependable period (Method 1)  2347.50mm3 - Dependable year concept (Method 2, 3 & 4 )

Method 1 Monsoon yield at 100% dependability considering each period interval as a dependable period (method: a) works out to be on lower side. This results the guide curve levels near to full reservoir level since beginning of monsoon with limited scope for flood absorption /moderation. This method will also give different monsoon dependable yield figures for the different period intervals i.e. weekly and ten daily periods. Thus the yield series will have to be prepared considering the monsoon yield as a whole.

Other three methods (2, 3, 4) listed above consider aggregate monsoon yield with different approaches for distribution of inflows into various period intervals.

Method 2 The method of cumulative yields from 1st June (method: b) to period interval considers the overall pattern of rainfall since beginning of the monsoon by making integration of normal, good and bad periods. This method is more appropriate when sufficient hydrological data for several past years is available and achieves the planned storage while availing of the flood absorption capacity to the greater possible extent.

However, there is a remote possibility that the reservoir may not be attaining FRL though sufficient inflow is available because of intermittent releases for maintaining upper limit during initial filling period and less yield towards later part. This method may be useful for the reservoirs getting assured rainfall in the catchments during the end period of monsoon and located in highly flood prone area.

Method 3

106 Inception Report Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF & ROS

This method of average pattern of distribution of monsoon inflows may be useful wherever hydrological data is insufficient and available for lesser period. In this method, dependable monsoon yield is distributed within the various period intervals bymeans of statistical average or knowledge and past experience if period interval data (weekly/ten daily/fortnightly period) is not available.

Method 4 The method of cumulative yields by working backwards from 31st October to period interval is similar to the method of working cumulative yields from 1st June (Method 2) with reverse/backward calculations from the end of monsoon. This method is more conservative and avails slightly lesser flood absorption capacity than the method of working cumulative yields from 1st June. There is an every possibility that the reservoir may attain FRL when inflows are sufficient. This method may be more appropriate for the reservoirs where the monsoon recedes early and the conservation has top priority.

Thus it is recommended that the dependable yields for the various period intervals is required to be worked out with any one logical methodology out of three methods (Method 2, 3, 4) which will represent the true picture of inflows for the dependable year concept, rainfall pattern and the purpose of reservoir planning. The comparison of upper guide curves during monsoon period developed with four methodologies is shown below:

Guide curves for Koyna Reservoir Koyna reservoir is planned for mainly hydropower generation as conservation storage. This dam is a lifeline of the state. The catchment area is of fern shape with submergence spread all along the river parallel to the continental divide of Sahyadri hill range. The rainfall is very heavy and erratic resulting into flashy floods. The rainfall in the catchment is almost entirely due to the south – west monsoon. The past hydrological data indicates that the runoff from the catchment is very heavy during the period from 16th June to 15th September and thereafter falls rapidly. The contribution of runoff in the monsoon yield after 15th September is very little with quite a variation. Therefore, the guide curves during monsoon period based on the cumulative yields by working backwards from the end of monsoon i.e. 31st October (Method 4) to period interval under consideration are recommended along with the condition that the operation of advance flood forecasting system in place having Inception Report 107 RTSF & ROS Krishna & Bhima River Basins

telemetry network and adopting advance flood release operation for creating space for flood absorption. Otherwise, the consequent heavy flood events downstream of Koyna Dam cannot be ruled out. Guide curves for Koyna Reservoir during Monsoon period are summarized with the assumptions/aspects given above.

108 Inception Report Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF & ROS

APPENDIX A.4: GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF RESERVOIR OPERATION The traditional method followed commonly for meeting the needs of water during the scarce period is construction of storage reservoir on river course. The excess water during the monsoon season is stored in such reservoir for eventual use in lean period. Construction of storages also helps in control of flood, as well as generation of electric power. To meet the objective set forth in planning a reservoir or a group of reservoirs and to achieve maximum benefits out of the storage created, it is imperative to evolve guidelines for operation of reservoirs.

Control of flood is better achieved if the reservoir level is kept low in the early stages of the monsoon season. However, at a later stage, if the anticipated inflows do not result, the reservoir may not get filled up adequately for meeting the various water demands. On the other hand, if the reservoir is filled up to Full reservoir level (FRL) in the early stages of monsoon, to avoid the risk of reservoir remaining unfilled at later stage, there may be problem of accommodating high floods occurring at later stage. In some cases while planning reservoirs, social and other considerations occasionally result in adoption of a plan that may not be economically the best. Considering all these issues it is necessary to look in to the subject of reservoir operation in general though local situations are different at different sites.

In the Bhima and Krishna basins, the flood forecasting and reservoir operations are based on the guidelines given in Dam Safety Manual Chapter 7 : Flood Forecasting, Reservoir Operation and Gate Operation, 1984, Irrigation Department, Government of Maharashtra. This manual had been prepared mainly based on the circulars issued by the GoM, the literature published by the Central Water Commission, New Delhi and the Central Board of Irrigation and Power, New Delhi and provisions in IS: 7323-1974.

This manual provides an elaborate and valuable guidelines on reservoir operation.

General Principles of Reservoir Operation

All dams in Maharashtra State are planned for the conservation purposes for utilization of the stored water for irrigation, industrial use, water supply and /or power generation. Provision of specific flood absorption storage is not considered in any of the reservoirs till now. They are not planned as flood control reservoirs. This concept might have been accepted because of the comparatively smaller flood prone areas with rare acute flood events in the state. It seems that additional expenditure involved for creation of flood absorption storage was also avoided. Dams though planned for conservation purposes must serve the purpose of building up the conservation storage without involving any risk of man-made floods to downstream areas. A dam can moderate floods through careful reservoir operation aided by a reliable flood forecasting system. Reservoir operation has to be regulated in such a way that all the floods impinging upon the reservoir can be safely routed without involving any risk to the structure itself or any damage to the property downstream. Both these requirements will have to be given equal weightage in reservoir operation. Looking to the very heavy floods and consequent losses thereof, the Maharashtra State Water Policy (July, 2003) mentions (para 8.0 - Flood Control and Management) that “in highly flood prone

Inception Report 109 RTSF & ROS Krishna & Bhima River Basins

areas, flood control shall be given an overriding consideration in reservoir regulation policy even at the cost of sacrificing some irrigation or power benefits.”

Normally, it is desirable to fill the reservoir at the end of monsoon but not before from the flood safety point of view. During the filling period, the lake level is not brought near full reservoir level too early if the historical data shows that even by prescribing limiting lake filling levels, the lake can be filled up.

General Principles of Operation of Multipurpose Reservoirs

For the purpose of regulation, reservoirs are classified as single purpose, multipurpose and system of reservoirs. Most of the reservoirs in Maharashtra are classified as multipurpose reservoirs. The multipurpose reservoirs are developed to serve more than one purpose (IS 7323:1994), which may be a combination of any of the conservation uses such as irrigation, power generation, industrial use, municipal water supply etc. with or without flood control. The general principles of operation of multipurpose reservoirs with joint use of storage space are described in 4.1.2.2. (b) and 4.1.2.3 of IS 7323:1994: These principles are reproduced below.

4.1.2.2 (b) Joint use of storage space—In a multipurpose reservoir where joint uses of some of the storage space or storage water has been envisaged, operation becomes complicated due to competing and conflicting demands. While flood control requires low reservoir level, conservation interests require as high a level as is attainable. Thus the objectives of these functions are not compatible and a compromise will have to be effected in flood control operations by sacrificing the requirements of these functions. In some cases parts of the conservational storage space is utilized for flood moderation, during the earlier stages of the monsoon. This space has to be filled up for conservation purposes towards the end of monsoon progressively, as it might not be possible to fill up this space during the post-monsoon periods, when the flows are insufficient even to meet the current requirements. This will naturally involve some sacrifice of the flood control interests towards the end of the monsoon.

4.1.2.3 The concept of joint use of storage space, with operational criteria to maximize the complementary effects and to minimize the competitive effects requires careful design. Such concepts, if designed properly, are easier to manage and will provide better service for all requirements. With the advancement of system analysis techniques, it is easy now to carefully design the joint use in a multipurpose reservoir.

This concept of joint use of storage needs to be kept in mind during reservoir operations.

Types of Reservoir Operation Schedules

The reservoir operation schedules determine in advance the most effective operations for use of reservoir storage. Schedule may vary from rigid (fixed rules), semi rigid and long range plans. The most rigid schedules are those built into the physical structures of single purpose, un-gated reservoirs. Rigid schedules

110 Inception Report Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF & ROS

may serve as guides for use by operating personnel at gated structures, in case during extreme floods if communication with the hydrologic network is lost. Results of their use in regulating floods of record and maximum probable floods are known from previous study. Such regulations are usually based on combination of lake level, stage at downstream control point and reservoir inflow or rate of change in reservoir elevation.

In case of semi-rigid schedules, the day-to-day operation of gated reservoirs and reservoir systems is based on current forecasts of stream flow with such adjustments as may be prudent based on the current precipitation outlook. They involve day-to-day decisions based on judgment but supported by the knowledge gained from studies of past floods. The weather outlook may be definite enough so that the entire hydrograph of the flood can be forecast with assurance in advance.

Long range planning schedules apply principally to the use of water for conservation purposes and to reservoirs and systems where storage is large compared with annual stream flow. Long range planning and scheduling involve a distribution of the storage and use of water against the long term pattern of stream flow. This is mostly used for depletion period.

The reservoirs in Maharashtra are operated with rigid schedules. The changeover is necessary from rigid schedules to semi-rigid with the advent of flood forecasting techniques together with weather and climate forecast.

In case of un-gated reservoirs (Rigid Schedule), the aspect of flood moderation is also more or less inbuilt. Only factor that needs to be carefully decided is the design flood, the adequacy of waste weir and flood lift. The lake level rises temporarily above FRL but below MWL when flood impinges the reservoir. In case of gated reservoirs, a part of the conservation storage space forms a part of the flood control storage space. Semi-rigid or flexible ROS has to be evolved keeping both the requirements in view.

Conceptual Guide Curves and Reservoir Operations during heavy floods

Reservoir has to be full at the end of monsoon, while handling the flood situation. This is achieved by preparing guide curves and gate operation schedules together with efficient flood forecasting system. The guidelines for preparation of guide curves (Rule curves or regulation schedules) are given in Dam Safety Manual Chapter: 7. Guide curves show the limits to which the reservoir levels should be normally raised at the end of specified periods for achieving the planned storage while availing of the flood absorption capacity to greater possible extent. During the period of probable severe floods, as forecasted the lake level is required to be depleted temporarily up to lower guide curve in anticipation and then raised temporarily above FRL but below MWL when flood impinges the reservoir. The maximum level to be attained depends upon the current inflow, storage space available, time period of the year and downstream constraints. An illustration of conceptual guide curves and reservoir operations during heavy floods are shown in following figure.

Inception Report 111 RTSF & ROS Krishna & Bhima River Basins

The storage space between the lower guide curve and MWL indicates maximum flood storage space on the various dates.

The study of some critical reservoirs indicates that the reservoir levels were raised during critical flood events of 2005 and 2006 in between upper guide curve and FRL. The lake levels were not either lowered temporarily below upper guide curve (but not below lower guide curve) in advance or went above FRL but below MWL during heavy inflows. This procedure of reservoir operation is not yet accepted at field level due to lack of reliable and efficient flood forecasting system.

Field officers are more cautious about the structural safety of dam and conservation storage. Most of the reservoirs were operated between upper guide curve and FRL with very marginal rise above FRL for small period. Under natural flood conditions, the water is stored temporarily as the stage rises, often referred to as valley storage reducing the peak inflow. Under reservoir conditions, the space previously available for natural valley storage may already be filled and because of the increased depth, the arrival of upstream inflow to the dam is accelerated. If the reservoir is at the level of full when flood occurs and no rise in water level can be made, resulting outflows will exceed those, which would have occurred under natural conditions. A negative lood control benefit might result. To counteract this loss of valley storage, the provision should be ade to permit a rise in water elevation during floods. This may be done by reserving flood storage below FRL or by permitting storage above FRL. This is explained in 5.5: Spillway Gate Regulation Schedules of IS 7323: 1994.

Emergency Flood Moderation Schedule

Guide curve is the target level planned to be achieved in a reservoir under different probabilities of inflows and / or withdrawals during various periods. It means that the reservoir level is to be maintained as per upper guide curve during normal inflows. During the heavy floods, the normal reservoir operation schedule should be switched over to the emergency flood moderation schedule. The 112 Inception Report Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF & ROS

criterion for switching over is the occurrence of heavy to very heavy rainfall in the catchments of the dam or the intimations of heavy to very heavy flows into the reservoir. This switching over process should be well studied and implemented in sub basin/basin existing in the state. During the emergency reservoir operation, the reservoir levels are allowed to rise temporarily above upper guide curve but below MWL for making flood absorption capacity to greater possible extent.

Preparation of Guide Curves

Guide curves (Rule curves or regulation schedules) are prepared separately for filling period and for depletion period. Technical committee is constituted to provide guidance for precise determination of reservoir releases during emergency situation in the state during the flood. The technical committee has studied the reservoir operations during the monsoon period i.e. for filling period. Guide curves are made up of the upper guide curve (A-curve) and the lower guide curve (B-curve) for filling period. There may be only one guide curve for depletion after attainment of FRL considering various water demands during the various periods of a year

As per guidelines of Dam safety Manual Chapter:7, the guide curve for 90% dependable storage levels and 75% dependable storage levels are designated as upper and lower guide curve respectively. This is appropriate for reservoirs planned for irrigation use at 75% dependable yields. The reservoirs are also planned for the purpose of utilization of the stored water for hydropower generation, water supply and industrial use on higher dependability as per Government policy. Upper and lower guide curves for such reservoirs are required to be developed for 100% and 90% dependable storage levels respectively in view of the more reliability requirement.

Guide curve for higher dependable storage levels (100%) and lower dependable storage levels (90%) can be designated as upper and lower guide curve respectively. Upper guide curve levels shall always be at higher levels than the lower guide curve levels. Because of large variations in inflow data for various period intervals (weekly/ten daily/fortnightly), the guide curve for higher dependable storage levels may give lower elevations than guide curve for lower dependable storage levels during some part of the filling period. So the curve passing through upper elevation points shall be considered as upper guide curve during filling period and vice versa.

Guide curves for the filling period are generally developed from the study of the past runoff data over a long period, complied into ten daily period intervals from 1st June to 31st October. Sometimes the period interval is taken as weekly or fortnightly instead of ten daily period. In Maharashtra State, the rainfall is unevenly distributed both in space and time even during the monsoon season. Rainfall patterns are unpredictable and vary from year to year and period to period. Development of guide curves with lesser period intervals may give large variations in inflow figures for different period intervals thereby giving staggered curve. So the comparatively longer period interval, say fortnightly period interval is more appropriate and practicable to arrive at the guide curve elevations than lesser period. In any case, the period interval shall not be less than fortnightly

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period. The ROS should also indicate at least four to five elevation points between spillway crest and FRL.

Reservoir operation schedules of some of the dams reveal that the date of attainment of FRL is taken as the end of monsoon even though the inflow yields during the end period intervals are less than withdrawals for various uses. Actually, the date of attainment of FRL will have to be decided by working backwards from the end of monsoon or the last period interval and arriving at the period which is having a surplus inflow at 90% dependability for irrigation reservoirs and at 100% dependability for reservoirs planned for hydropower generation, water supply and industrial use. FRL may have to be adopted at the end of respective surplus period.

Reservoir level reaches generally at MDDL at the beginning of monsoon for storages having no carry over. Reservoir attains FRL at the end of monsoon, generally in middle of Sept/ October based on inflow pattern. Guide curve levels for the various period intervals for filling period are worked out from the date of attainment of FRL to beginning of monsoon (MDDL) by working backwards. There is no control over rising of lake level during monsoon below spillway crest level except marginal withdrawals for power and irrigation uses through outlet as a low level control. Guide curves below spillway crest level are redundant. So they may start from the spillway crest level. However, the filling procedure below spillway crest is required to be specified in ROS to avail early power and irrigation benefits during the period of good rains.

The procedure for preparation of guide curves is described in para 8.0 of Dam Safety Manual Chapter: 7. It has been prescribed that the runoff series for each period interval is to be prepared from the available runoff data at the dam site for several past years compiled into the period interval from 1st June to 31st October and 90% dependable and 75% dependable yields for the various periods may be worked out. It means the dependable yields are to be worked out for the various periods considering each period interval in isolation i.e. weekly/ ten daily/ fortnightly period as a dependable period. This may not be logical because the aggregate monsoon dependable yield worked out by summation of all the period interval yields will not match with the yield of dependable year. This method considers all the bad (dry) periods. Monsoon dependable yield worked out by this procedure will be too less. This results the guide curve levels/reservoir levels are required to be kept near to full reservoir level too early since beginning of monsoon with limited scope for flood absorption/moderation. Thus the accurate flood moderation concept does not found justice in this procedure.

Intermittent Reservoir Operations during the period interval

Guide curves or schedules give the levels required to be maintained at the beginning and at the end of the period interval. The intermittent lake levels to be maintained day-to-day within the specified period intervals are generally interpolated by straight line relation. However, the reservoir inflows cannot follow the rule of simple interpolation. The intermittent lake levels to be maintained will depend on the actual inflows. For example, if the probable fortnightly inflow is received on the first day of fortnightly period, the lake level will have to be allowed to rise as per the guide curve level indicated at the end of the fortnightly

114 Inception Report Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF & ROS

period. So it is necessary to consider the period interval together as a unit. The intermittent reservoir operations during the period interval shall be semi-rigid depending upon the inflows.

Review and Updating of ROS

Reservoir Operation Schedule is prepared from the study of the past run off data over a long period. During the initial periods of the dam, the schedules are prepared in a preliminary form because of inadequate hydrological data. Later refinements are done based on observed hydrological data and actual operating experience. Reservoir operation schedule of the critical dams like Koyna (1987), Ujjani (2006), Paithan (2006) and Yeldari (2006) were revised and approved.

Periodical review and updating of ROS must be based on hydrological data and withdrawals so as to have the best operation of the reservoirs. It is generally updated once in five years or even less than five years period. The committee recommends that ROS should be revised at least once in five years or even less depending on variations observed in stream flows. The concerned Chief Engineer is the competent and responsible authority for approval and updating of ROS.

Revision of Dam Safety Manual Chapter: 7

The Dam Safety Manual Chapter: 7 had published 23 years back. Indian Standard (IS 7323) on ‘Operation of Reservoirs: Guidelines’ has been also revised in 1994. The concept of operation of reservoir considering it as a single entity has given way to the concept of integrated operation of reservoirs. Application of system engineering methods such as mathematical optimization and simulation are advocated in the revised IS 7323:1994.

ROS for Dams having flaps

In some of the dams, the additional storage has been created recently by way of raising the FRL by joining steel flaps to the radial gates. Koyna Dam is provided with 1.5 m high flaps. Similarly the Ujjani Dam is also provided with 0.6 m high flaps. The concept in providing the flaps is to impound additional storage above original FRL during the receding monsoon period when maximum flood events already passed. The maximum flood level is not supposed to increase even with the provision of flaps and impounding water above original FRL. The salient features of Koyna Dam and Ujjani Dam show that the MWL is also increased in that proportion with same dam top. The reservoir operations of both these dams are critical considering the downstream highly flood prone areas. It is possible to increase the flood absorption capacity with help of the reservoir operation based on the original full reservoir level and revised MWL. The reservoir level is to be built up with this ROS during the period of heavy runoff. The storage above original FRL may be impounded after major flood is passed as indicated by flood records. The additional storage is possible in the normal year because the ROS is prepared for achieving full reservoir filling with the probability of bad year. The provision of additional flood absorption capacity will reduce the outflow from spillway. The appropriate procedure for impounding additional storage above original FRL is to be decided by the project authorities and specified in the

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reservoir operation schedule. Similar concept is applicable for the other dam provided with flaps and located in the highly flood prone areas.

116 Inception Report Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF & ROS

APPENDIX B: INCEPTION WORKSHOP

The Inception Workshop was organised by WRD on December 7, 2011 at YASDA Centre, Pune. The Inception Workshop is an important milestone of the three-month Inception Phase which was aimed at engaging WRD and stakeholders, and to learn and appreciate first hand the needs of the project. The Proceedings of the Workshop are prepared in a separate volume. Objectives The objectives of the Inception Workshop were:  To provide a forum of further consultation with stakeholders on the needs of an improved water resources management system with a real time streamflow forecasting and reservoir operation in the Krishna and Bhima river basins  To obtain comments on the Draft Inception Report  To obtain feedback on the approach and methodology  To stimulate discussion on capacity building and institutional strengthening Outputs The outputs of the Workshop are recommendations to WRD as well as to the Consultant on various aspects of the projects, particularly on capacity building, considerations of the real time network, forecasting and reservoir operations. The expressed needs, comments and feedback from stakeholders and participants in the Workshop have been incorporated in the final inception report. Programme The Workshop was been conducted as an interactive forum in order to achieve its objectives. The Workshop was divided into four sessions: Opening session, Technical presentation, thematic group discussion, and a plenary session followed by closing the workshop. Participants The Workshop was well attended by many senior WRD officials and other stakeholders. Below is the list of participants (64 participants). List of Participants

Sl No Name Designation & Organisation

1 Hiralal T. Mendhegiri Chief Engineer (WR) & Joint Secretary, WRD, Mantralaya, Mumbai 2 Milind Panpatil Executive Engineer, CWC, Pune 3 S.R. Tejale Sup. Engineer., H.P. Circle, Nashik 4 P.K. Pawar Executive Engineer, HMDPD, Nashik, H.P (SW), Nashik 5 D.A. Bagade Executive Engineer, BSD, Pune 6 M.M. Mahajan Assistant. Engineer-I, BSD, Pune 7 Dr. Sunil D. Gorantiwar Head, Dept. of Irrigation & Drainage Engg., MPKU, Rahuri 8 Sanjay S. Heganna Assistant. Engineer-II, HPD, Pune 9 Ishwar S Chandha Sup. Engineer., CDO, Nashik 10 Shivaji D. Rajale Executive Engineer, Nira deoghar Project

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Sl No Name Designation & Organisation 11 B.V. Sonawane HPD, Pune 12 C.S. Desai HPD, Pune 13 Mrs. S.V. Phadke Joint Director, CWPRS, Khadakwasla, Pune 14 S.S. Phadnis J.E., BSD, Pune 15 C.A. Birajdar Chief Engineer (SP), WRD, MKVDC, Pune 16 A.A. Kapole Executive Engineer, Chaskaman Div., Pune 17 S.N. Bolbhat Executive Engineer, KID, Pune 18 Ashok Karve Mechatronics Systems, Pune 19 H.M. Shinde Chief Engineer (C.S), Pune 20 V.R. Deshamukh E.O. SGSY 21 B.R. Wagh Executive Engineer, Bhama Askhed Dam Division., Pune 22 D.A. Pandhave Executive Engineer, S.I.D., Solapur 23 Padmakar Kelkar Mechatronics Pvt. Ltd., Pune 24 D.R. Kandi Executive Director, Krishna Valley Development Corporation 25 V.L. Joshi Executive Engineer, HP Division., Aurangabad 26 D.M. Dubal Assistant Engineer Gr-I, Nira Irrigation Sub Division., Nira 27 S.A. Gangurde Assistant. Executive Engineer, NRBC Division., Phaltan 28 R.R. Gargate Assistant. Project Officer, DRDA, Solapur 29 K.H. Ansari SE, KIC, Kop 30 S.B. Ghadge EO (SGSY) D.S. Pandharpur 31 Tejaswini B. Kurwatti Research Student, IIT Bombay 32 Prashant Tatiys Director, S&E Enggs Pvt. Ltd., Pune 33 Suryawanshi A.S S.E., DCC, Nashik 34 Mulay. V.Y E.E., CADA, Pune 35 A.A. Kusanale S.D.E., H.P. Sub Division., Sangli 36 A.D. Nasalapure Sec. Engineer., H.P. Sub Division., Sangli 37 N.S. Kolekar Deputy Engineer, NRBC Division., Phaltan 38 A.R. Naik Executive Engineer, WD, CDO, Nashik 39 A.D. Gumaste H.P Sub Division, Pune 40 S.D. Pardeshi Assistant Engineer Gr-I, BSD, Pune 41 Deepgauri Joshi Assistant Engineer Gr-I, BSD, Pune 42 S.D. Meshram Assistant Engineer Gr-II, BSD, Pune 43 R.B. Mali Assistant Engineer Gr-II, BSD, Pune 44 Girish V. Nagarkar Assistant Engineer Gr-I, BSD, Pune 45 Yojana Patil Assistant Engineer Gr-II, BSD, Pune 46 Ashish S. Jadhav Assistant Engineer Gr-II, HPD, Pune 47 Sanjay Bhakta Assistant Engineer Gr-II, BSD, Pune 48 Narendra Shinde SE CDO (M.D), Nashik 49 Prakash Misal Executive Engineer, IPF (KB), Pune 50 T.N. Munde SE, KDC, Pune 51 Amar P. Bade Assistant Engineer - II, HP Division., Kalwa, 52 S.M. Upase CE ID Pune 53 Ghanshyam Rathi Project Manager, Mechatronics Systems Pvt. Ltd., Pune 54 D.D. Bhide Director General, Design, Training, Hyd, Res& Safety, MERI

118 Inception Report Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF & ROS

Sl No Name Designation & Organisation 55 H.K. Gosavi Chief Engineer, Hydrology & Planning, WRD, Nashik 56 Akash Karwa Mechatronics Syatems Pvt. Ltd.

57 Smita Kasar Assistant Engineer - II, H.P. Sub Division., Pune 58 D.B. Sale Executive Engineer, W.P.D., Nashik 59 Guna Paudyal Team Leader, DHI, RTSF & ROS Project 60 D Pandit Dy. Team Leader, DHI, RTSF & ROS Project 61 Hans Enggrob Technical Director, DHI (India) Water & Environment, New Delhi 62 K Patil Modelling Expert, DHI, RTSF & ROS Project 63 P Alankar Modelling Expert, DHI, RTSF & ROS Project 64 P Kadam Modelling Expert, DHI, RTSF & ROS Project

Opening Session The Opening session started with a welcome note from Ms. Deepgauri Joshi, Assistant Engineer-I of Basin Simulation Division, who also acted as the Anchor of the Workshop. The session was chaired by Mr. D.D. Bhide, Director General, Design, Training, Hydrology, Research & Safety) MERI, with Mr. H.T. Mendhegiri , Chief Engineer (WR) & Joint Secretary (Mantralaya, Mumbai), as the Chief Guest. Mr. D.R. Kandi, Executive Director, Krishna Valley Development Corporation was the guest of honour. At the outset, a worship of Goddess Sharaswoti was performed and the Workshop was inaugurated by the Chairman by lighting the traditional oil lamp. Mr. Mendhegiri in his opening speech highlighted the need of real time forecasting of floods in the Krishna and Bhima river basins. He briefly dealt with the Hydrology Project and provided the backgrounds of the RTDAS and RTSF&ROS projects. He also discussed the current Reservoir Operation System about its rigidness and lack of real time data. knowledge lag and need for semi-rigid Reservoir Operation System. He emphasized to switch from normal reservoir operation system to an emergency operation system during extreme flood events based upon advanced forecasting. He mentioned that current flood risk is being minimised by about 20-30% using Engineers’ experience. The Chief Engineer, Mr. H.K. Gosavi gave a detailed presentation on Hydrology Project and emphasized the need of real time data acquisition, streamflow forecasting, reservoir operation and flood forecasting. Guna Paudyal, Team Leader (DHI), RTSF & ROS project, presented the Draft Inception Report. Technical Session Guna Paudyal, Team Leader (DHI), RTSF & ROS project, presented the technical Approach and methodology to be adopted in the project. He presented some of the modelling concepts to be adopted in the project, which included rainfall-runoff modelling, river basin water resources modelling, hydrodynamic modelling, real time flood forecasting and reservoir operation. The presentation was followed by discussion, questions and answers. Interesting observations and comments were put forward by participants. The key observations and suggestions were:  Communication between the Basin Simulation Division and other stakeholders should be enhanced for a meaningful utilisation of the system

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 A good quality control system should be implemented to get accurate data from the river cross section surveys. Bench marks should be established at regular intervals and should be checked for accuracy.  In order to complete the project in time, the river survey programme may be implemented in a priority basis, selecting critical reaches in stages.  Special attention may be given to rainfall-runoff modelling of catchments in which no rain gauges are available.  WRD’s capacity should be established not only to operate the models but also to be able to upgrade and maintain the models being developed in the project. Thematic Group Discussion A participatory group discussion was organised in three thematic groups: Group 1: Inflow forecasting and reservoir operation Group 2: Flood forecasting, early warning and emergency management Group 3: Institutional strengthening & capacity building

It was observed that the groups engaged themselves in lively discussion on all the subjects. Each Group was convened by a senior WRD officer, who summarised the discussion points and the group’s recommendations (Chief Engineer and Superintending Engineer levels) Plenary Session Each Group Leader presented the outcome of their discussion and recommendations, as summarised below:

Summary of Discussions and Recommendations

Group 1: Inflow Forecasting and Reservoir Operation 1. Effect of reservoir storage and travel time should be considered in inflow forecasting. For example, there is a 12-20 hours delay in flood travel along the 100 km long Ujjani reservoir. 2. The rainfall occurring into the water bodies should be taken into account. For example Ujjani reservoir covers and area of about 300 km2. Establishment of rain gauges may be considered around the edges of the reservoirs. 3. It seems that emphasis is given to install AWS and rain gauges in the catchments of main rivers only. Tributary catchments upstream of reservoirs should also have enough rain gauges. 4. False reporting of data should be dealt with cross-checking. 5. The telemetry data collection system is very sensitive and may be out of order due to various reasons including lack of maintenance. Similarly, the GSM based data transmission system may fail frequently and be unstable system. Therefore, satellite communication system should be used for major river stations. The changing land use pattern and water conservation structures such as percolation tanks and watershed treatment activities should be taken into account into the rainfall-runoff models. Also, soil moisture conditions should be captured.

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Group 2: Flood forecasting, early warning and emergency management 1. Data receiving frequency has to be properly selected. It is possible to receive real time data every 15 minutes. Flood data and information be processed at three hourly interval during emergencies and at 12 hourly interval during normal flood situation. 2. In addition to modern IT based communication such as E-mail and Web, traditional communication channels (telephone, fax, courier, message) may also be continued because during flood emergencies modern systems may be out of order. 3. The flood forecast should be based on rainfall forecast in addition to now-cast data. 4. Based on the flood and early warning system, critical locations may be identified and activities related to marking of blue line and red lines may be implemented. 5. Flood zone mapping should be carried out in continuation of the present RTSF & ROS project. 6. Forecasting of floods from free catchments (without dams) should also be carried out. 7. The early warning system should provide information useful for the revenue departments. 8. There should be some mechanism to record feedback/acknowledgement from Revenue Department as well as other departments on information provided by WRD.

Group 3: Institutional strengthening & capacity building 6. WRD should emphasise in strengthening the hydro-met network by adding new rain gauges under the Hydrology Projects. Mechanisms to enhance security of various stations and equipment should be established. 7. In addition to the present strength of BSD, additional human resources as suggested in the Inception report should be considered. Engagements of a meteorology expert and an IT expert are recommended. 8. Under the capacity building programme, assistant engineers from other Chief Engineers’ offices may be considered to ensure technology transfer and sustainability. 9. In order to obtain maximum benefit of the project and to ensure that the developed modelling systems are utilised optimally, there should be a good communication between Chief Engineers and the Basin Simulation Division.

Closing Session Mr. Kandi, Executive Director, Krishna Valley Development Corporation, in his closing remarks said that the reservoirs should be managed for both flood control and water resources conservation. He cited an example that WRD faces a dilemma between releasing water to make space for 2005 like floods and keeping the reservoirs full for water utilisation. He observed that rainfall variability is an important factor. He also noted that in 2011, the reservoirs are depleting fast because of water releases from October. He suggested that the proposed river cross section survey programme should be carried out fast and priority may be given to affected areas. Finally, Mr. Kandi emphasised on data validation before any conclusion is derived from the models.

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Mr. D.D. Bhide, (Director General, Design, Training, Hydrology, Research & Safety) MERI) in his closing remarks said that the critical paths identified in the project implementation should be considered seriously and actions taken to achieve the stipulated outputs in time. He recognised that availability of the river cross section data in time is important for testing the system to be developed during the next monsoons season. Mr. Bhide suggested that a technical session may be organised to share the experience of the consultants from other countries. Mr. Bhide mentioned the need to consider factors of climate change and flash floods as well. Finally, he suggested that the flood forecasting and early warning information should cater to the needs of revenue departments who are responsible for disaster management.

The Workshop was closed with a vote of thanks from Mr. D. Bagade, Executive Engineer, Basin Simulation Division.

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APPENDIX C: LIST OF DAMS

Reservoirs with Purpose in Krishna Basin

Major/Medium Sr. No. Name of Dam Purpose Dam

1 Dhom Major Irrigation, HP 2 Dhom Balkawadi Medium Irrigation 3 Mahu Medium Irrigation, HP 4 Kanher Major Irrigation, HP 5 Urmodi Major Irrigation, HP 6 Tarali Major Irrigation, HP HP, 7 Koyna Major Irrigation(Partly) 8 Uttarmand Medium Irrigation, HP 9 Morna(Gureghar) Medium Irrigation 10 Warna Major Irrigation, HP 11 Wang Medium Irrigation, HP 12 Kadvi Medium Irrigation, HP 13 Kasari Medium Irrigation 14 Kumbhi Medium Irrigation, HP 15 Dhamni Medium Irrigation, HP 16 Radhanagari Major Irrigation, HP 17 Dudhganga Major Irrigation, HP 18 Tembhu Barrage Major Irrigation Satpewadi Irrigation 19 Major Barrage

Reservoirs with Purpose in Bhima Basin

Major / Purpose Sr. No. Name of Dam Medium Dam 1 Chilewadi Medium Irrigation, HP Pimpalgaon Irrigation, HP 2 Major Joga 3 Manikdoh Major Irrigation, HP 4 Yedgaon Major Irrigation 5 Wadaj Major Irrigation 6 Dimbe Major Irrigation, HP 7 Chaskaman Major Irrigation, HP 8 Kalmodi Medium irrigation

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Major / Purpose Sr. No. Name of Dam Medium Dam Bhama HP 9 Major Askheda 10 Andhra Medium HP 11 Wadiwale Medium HP Water Supply, 12 Pawana Major HP, Irrigation 13 Kasar Sai Medium Irrigation, HP HP, Irrigation 14 Mulshi Major (Partly) 15 Temghar Major Irrigation, HP 16 Warasgaon Major Irrigation, HP 17 Panshet Major Irrigation, HP Irrigation, 18 Khadakwasala Major Water Supply 19 Ghod Major Irrigation Irrigation, HP, 20 Ujjani Major Water Supply Sina- Irrigation 21 Major Kolegaon Sina Irrigation 22 Medium (Nimgaon) 23 Gunjawani Major Irrigation, HP 24 Bhatghar Major Irrigation, HP 25 Vir Major Irrigation, HP 26 Nira Deoghar Major Irrigation, HP Irrigation, 27 Nazare Medium water supply

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APPENDIX D: LIST OF MEETINGS AND CONSULTATIONS

Sr Date Agenda Participation No. 1 17.08.2011 Inauguration and Kick Off Director General (DTHRS), Chief Meeting, RTSF&ROS Engineer (Planning & Hydrology) Office, DHI Pune Supt. Engineer (DAC ), Executive Engineer (BSD) Team Leader (RTSF&ROS), Dy. Team Leader, Technical Director, DHI (India) 2 18.08.2011 Preliminary discussions on Executive Engineer (BSD) & BSD project milestones, data and Engineers models, BSD, Sinchan Team Leader, Dy. Team Leader Bhawan 3 20.08.2011 Meeting with Supt. Supt. Engineer (PIC), Executive Engineer, PIC regarding Engineer (Khadakwasla Div), project initiation and Visit to Executive Engineer (BSD) Krishna Flood Control Cell, Team Leader, Dy. Team Leader, Sinchan Bhawan. Hydro-meteorologist, IT Expert. Review of Hydro-met Network 4 26.08.2011 Visit to Krishna Flood Officers of Flood Control Cell, Control Cell, Sinchan AE-II, BSD Bhawan Team Leader, Dy. Team Leader, other experts 5 19.09.2011 Review of Progress, X- Executive Engineer (BSD) & BSD sections survey planning, Engineers, Engineers from HP Sub- BSD, Sinchan Bhawan divisions. Team Leader, Dy. Team Leader 6 21.09.2011 X-sections Survey Planning, Executive Engineer (BSD) & BSD HP Satara Engineers, Engineers from HP Sub- divisions. Team Leader, Dy. Team Leader 7 22.09.2011 Data Requirements, Training Executive Engineer (BSD) & BSD Needs and Schedule, Engineers BSD, Sinchan Bhawan Team Leader, Dy. Team Leader 8 23.09.2011 Visit to Nighoje River GD Chief Engineer (Planning & site and FCS Hydrology), Supt. Engineer (DAC ), Executive Engineer (BSD), Engineers

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from BSD & HPDP, Pune. Team Leader, Dy. Team Leader 9 18.10.2011 Irrigation Requirements for Head (Irrigation & Drainage Crops Engg),MPKV, Rahuri RTSF&ROS Office, DHI Team Leader, Dy. Team Leader Pune 10 21.10.2011 X-sections Survey Planning Executive Engineer (BSD) & BSD Engineers, Engineers from Hp Sub- divisions. Dy. Team Leader, modeling expert (DHI) 11 01.11.2011 Discussions on Inception Executive Engineer (BSD) & BSD Workshop Engineers, Engineers from Hp Sub- BSD, Sinchan Bhawan divisions. Team Leader, Dy. Team Leader 12 08.11.2011 Review of Progress Director General (DTHRS), Supt. BSD, Sinchan Bhawan Engineer (DAC ), Supt. Engineer (DCPH ),Executive Engineer (BSD), BSD Engineers Team Leader, Modelling Expert, Dy. Team Leader 13 08.11.2011 Review of disaster Resident Deputy Collector/District management, flood warning Disaster Management Officer, Disaster dissemination, Pune District Management expert (PMC-UNDP Collector’s Office Project), Assistant Engineer-II (BSD) Team Leader, Dy. Team Leader. 14 08.11.2011 Review of Progress Chief Engineer (WRP), Mantralaya, BSD, Sinchan Bhawan Supt. Engineer (DAC ), Supt. Engineer (DCPH ),Executive Engineer (BSD), BSD Engineers Team Leader, Modelling Expert, Expert, Dy. Team Leader 15 19.11.2011 Review and discussion, Chief Engineer, Superintending RTSF&ROS Office, DHI Engineer, Executive Engineer, Pune Consultant team 16 20.11.2011 Ujjani Dam Site engineer, operators, control room Review & study of Reservoir staff operation Team leader, Dy. Team Leader, International experts (F Hansen, G Jorgensen) 17 23.11.2011 Sangli District Collector Executive Engineer (BSD), Dy. Team Office Leader, Additional Collector, Resident

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Meeting and discussion on Deputy Collector, other officials. disaster Management 17 07.12.2011 Inception Workshop at WRD, other stakeholders, Consultant YASDA Centre, Pune team 18 08.12.2011 Review, discussion on Executive Engineer, Team Leader, Dy. finalisation of Inception Team leader report, planning of training and study tour. BSD, Sinchan Bhawan

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APPENDIX E: DATABASE DOCUMENTATION

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