TACR: People's Republic of China: Strategy for Drought Management

Technical Assistance Consultant’s Report

Project Number: 42025 March 2011

People's Republic of China: Strategy for Drought Management (Cofinanced by the Multi-Donor Trust Fund under the Water Financing Partnership Facility)

Prepared by: GHD Pty Limited

For: Ministry of Water Resources People's Republic of China

This consultant’s report does not necessarily reflect the views of ADB or the Government concerned, and ADB and the Government cannot be held liable for its contents. (For project preparatory technical assistance: All the views expressed herein may not be incorporated into the proposed project’s design.

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People’s Republic of China Asian Development Bank Ministry of Water Resources

Strategy for Drought Management TA 7261-PRC

FINAL REPORT

GHD Pty Ltd March 2011 Table of Contents

1. Introduction 3

1.1 Background 3

1.2 TOR for Drought Management TA 4

1.3 Management Arrangements 5

1.4 Report Structure 5

2. Drought Definition and Management Approaches 6

2.1 Drought definitions and terminology 6

2.2 Concept of Risk Management 8

2.3 Risk Management versus Disaster Relief Management 9

3. Geography Meteorology and Hydrology of China 11

3.1 Geography 11

3.2 Meteorology 12

3.3 Hydrology 12

4. History of drought and drought impacts in China 14

4.1 Major Recorded Droughts 14

4.2 Recent Recorded Droughts 14

4.3 Impacts of Drought 17

5. Current Drought Management Strategies, Policies and Regulations in China 19

5.1 Strategies 19

5.2 Policies 20

5.3 Regulations 21

5.4 Institutions, Structure and Procedures 22

5.5 Decision Making 23

5.6 Structural Measures 24

5.7 Non Structural Measures 28

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | i 6. International Approaches to Drought Management 33

6.1 Trend towards Risk Management 33

6.2 Risk Management and Climate Change Impacts 35

6.3 Recommendations from the International workshop 36

6.4 Conclusion and Recommendation for Improved Approach to Drought Management in China 37

6.5 General Framework for Drought Risk Management in China 37

6.6 The Case for Demand Management within a Risk Management Framework 38

6.7 Proposed Drought Risk Management Approach for China based on Chinese and International Experienc 43

7. Outcome of Pilots Studies in Designated Provinces 50

7.1 Key findings of the Pilots for Drought Risk Management Implementation 50

7.2 Serious Drought Issues in China that Risk Management can address 52

8. Strategic Framework for Drought Risk Management 55

8.1 Opportunities and Constraints for Drought Risk Management in China 55

8.2 Framework Addressing Key Issues 56

8.3 Strengths and Weaknesses of Current System 58

8.4 Comparisons with Pilot Sites 59

8.5 Developing an Appropriate Strategic Framework Incorporating Risk Management 59

8.6 Before, During and After Matrix 60

8.7 Strategic Framework and Key Points 60

8.8 Rationale for the Framework 62

8.9 Actions required lying the foundations for Framework development and implementation 64

9. Action Plan 66

9.1 Introduction 66

9.2 Action Plan Objectives 66

9.3 Principles 66

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | ii 9.4 Key Tasks for the Action Plan 67

9.5 Main Priorities 70

10. Recommendations 72

10.1Next Steps and recommendation 72

10.2Design of Pilots 72

11. References 76

Table Index

Table 1 Role and Responsibilities of the Flood Control and Drought Relief Office and the Associated Agencies 28

Table 2 Drought Risk Management Cycle 56

Table 3 Stategic Framework and Key Points 60

Table 4 Table of Actions and Priorities 70

Figure Index

Figure 1 Organization Chart for TA Implementation 5

Figure 2 Comparisons of the Reactive and Proactive Approach to Drought Issues 10

Figure 3 China Flood Control and Drought Relief Organisation Chart 23

Figure 4 Annual Inflows into Melbourne’s Major Harvesting Reservoirs 40

Figure 5 Impact of Demand Management through Restrictions on Use by Compulsory Water Restrictions on Reservoir Levels 41

Figure 6 Consumption in Litres Per Day as A result of Demand Management 42

Figure 7 Melbourne Water Storage 2000 to 2010 42

Figure 8 Actual Water Use Against Targets for 2009/2010 43

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | iii Appendices

Appendix A Drought Relief Regulations

Appendix B Standard of Classification for Drought

Appendix C Nonstructural Measures for Drought Management in China

Appendix D Drought Environment Report

Appendix E Pilot Study Outcomes

Appendix F Policy Brief

Appendix G Handbook

Appendix H Southwest Drought Addendum

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | iv Executive Summary China is facing increasing pressure on water resources from continued economic development, increasing population, urbanization and climate change impacts. Water scarcity is leading to conflict and competition between water users and relatively small changes in rainfall are having an increasing large impact on supply availability. The need to maintain food security and social stability is very important in China and increasing drought or water scarcity is an issue for both.

Drought is a feature of the climate in China and severe droughts with major social impacts have occurred regularly in recorded history. These have led to significant loss of human life, loss of livestock and agricultural productivity. Despite the enormous effort put into development of water capture, storage and management in China, droughts, particularly intensity of widespread multiyear drought events. Drought is currently managed as part of an emergency and disaster relief process that has been good at coping with short term emergency needs but is less suited to coping with multiyear widespread drought.

International experience suggested that China needs to change its approach to drought management from an emergency response to a risk management approach. This is move from reactive to proactive involving a more integrated system of monitoring, prediction, and modelling of hydrology/meteorology influences on water resources coupled with demand management for water conservation in many forms and community education programs to deal with increasing scarcity. There are also considerable savings to be made in existing water use patterns that need to be addressed. China has limited potential to increase supply as major rivers are already heavily exploited so managing demand is crucial to water management in general and drought in particular. Monitoring and effective management of ground water extraction is a necessary part of this mix as groundwater is currently used at unsustainable levels in parts of China.

Climate change is likely to exacerbate the impact of drought as higher temperatures increase water use across agriculture and urban areas whilst reducing runoff into storage. Parts of northern China have seen a decline in rainfall and an increase in irregularity of rainfall in the last 30 years and this has increased the incidence of “drought”. The drought of 2000 to 2003 across parts of northern China indicated how vulnerable this part of China was to relatively small changes in rainfall, runoff and higher temperatures. The impact on grain production was very significant. Increased grain production in Northern China is at risk from drought.

At present there is some confusion as to what constitutes a drought or drought emergency with limited standardisation across the country. However, Drought Relief Regulations at the national level have been released in 2009, supported by Drought Classification Rules in 2009. These will take some time to work through the system. China lacks an information system to undertake drought monitoring and prediction in real time and the use of integrated data sources for modelling is relative new and less developed.

To enable this change to a proactive approach, a drought management strategy framework has been recommended, based around a risk assessment modelling mechanism that informs and supports further actions. The strategy is supported by an action plan for change that should in the first instance be thoroughly tested and refined through pilots as a vehicle for learning and development to adapt risk management approaches to the Chinese context. The strategic framework emphasises the need to have a sound scientific basis for decision making, consistent across the different provinces that support early warning and water conservation through demand management and a variety of water saving and education initiatives. The role of SFCDRH needs to be much more proactive and lead a regular review process for monitoring and early warning for drought management, supporting other

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 1 agencies and the provincial levels in preparedness and addressing drought as early as possible. Longer term mitigation through non structural measures must also be incorporated in the SFCDRH activities and those of other agencies if drought is to be management effectively into the more uncertain future.

To test and develop the framework, three provinces (Liaoning, Inner Mongolia and Anhui) were selected as targets for theoretical pilots to examine the potential to introduce risk management approaches in existing drought management plans. Liaoning, Inner Mongolia and Anhui present different environments and hydrological situations in relation to drought impacts. All are affected by drought and water scarcity to some degree. Their drought planning processes show a limited ability to use a risk management approach because there is a lack of suitable information and decision support tools to do so. Staff need training and support to become more proactive in thinking and response as there is a lack of understanding about a risk management approach. A comprehensive pilot that establishes the scientific basis for decision-making, trains staffs and commences an integrated approach to drought as part of a wider water demand management is needed for each province. This can then demonstrate the use and value of the risk approach in differing part of China that can be adapted throughout China. It is anticipated that it will take some time and considerable resources to make such a change.

Pilots should be undertaken in the three areas with at least one regionally based such as an upper catchment of a major river such as the Yellow River that cuts across administrative boundaries. Pilots should be comprehensive to incorporate the best available science and practice from China and internationally. This would include modelling and real time data utilization to develop early warning, scenario analysis, before, during and after drought actions and monitoring. The pilots would lead the way in demonstrating the need to change the role of SFCDRH into a proactive coordination and facilitation role that supports wider demand management for water in an increasingly water scarce environment. Drought is recognised as the largest single disaster influence on agriculture in China. Water scarcity in general is becoming a defining issue for ongoing development. These combined are extremely important for food security and social stability hence the need for a proactive risk management approach to minimise the impact of droughts.

It is recommended that the next phase of this work is to design and implement the pilots and action plan in the three areas to carry the risk management approach for drought forward in a tried and tested manner. The outcome of the pilot will be drought risk management plans on a regional and provincial basis with a proactive SFCDRH driving the spread of risk management plans across China with the full cooperation of other agencies. Training and education will support these activities, informed by the experiences gained from pilots.

An addendum to this report is focused on the drought in South West China that commenced in 2009. This is having a major impact on affected areas. The emergency response started well after the rainfall failed. Communities are struggling for drinking water in remote and mountainous areas. The addendum looks at the emergency response process and compares this to a risk management approach as outlined in the strategic framework to show how a risk management approach would have been different. The improved timeliness of actions is a key to this approach and recommendations are made on ways to address the follow up of the drought.

A policy brief will be developed for circulation based on the findings of this report and ways to address issues and changes in drought management. This will cover the proactive risk management approach to drought and reasons why it would be advantageous for China to adopt this approach. This will also be discussed at the final workshop.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 2 1. Introduction

1.1 Background Drought is a feature of the climate in China and severe droughts with major social impacts have occurred regularly in recorded history. Despite the enormous effort put into development of water capture, storage and management in China, droughts are still impacting upon the community, agriculture, industry and hydropower production. Drought is managed as part of an emergency and disaster relief process that has been good at coping with short term needs after an emergency has been declared but does not prepare adequately for a multiyear widespread drought. The emergency response and mitigation planning process is well established but is not focused on water conservation and demand management through a risk management approach. It is focussed on relief efforts during and disaster and putting in place measure to be prepared for the next disaster event. Much of the preparedness is based on ground water sources.

Unfortunately groundwater is over utilized in many places and cannot sustain current extraction. This leaves large areas at much higher risk in a multiyear drought situation when ground water is further depleted and/or becomes unavailable. Recovery from a drought including replenishment of ground water reserves and river flows is crucial to reducing the ongoing impact of drought. Similarly, many areas away from major rivers or water courses are not well serviced and not easy to service with the current approach of essentially larger scale structural efforts. The drought is South West China in 2009/2010 high lights this problem where people in mountainous and more remote areas are suffering the most from water shortage and impact on livelihoods.

A number of previous studies and reports, both Chinese and International, have assessed water issues, policies and water scarcity in China including Qian and Zhang et all (2002) “Comprehensive Report of Strategy on Water Resources For China’s Sustainable Development”; Shalizi (2006) “Addressing China’s Growing water Shortages and Associated Social and Environmental Consequences” and; “Addressing China’s Water Scarcity: Recommendations for Selected Water Resource Management Issues” (2009). The messages in these and other reports are all similar with different perspectives highlighting the issues of water scarcity in China.

Drought is now acknowledged as the single largest natural disaster affecting agriculture in China with impacts on food security and economic development. Water scarcity is often confused with drought and will be exacerbated by drought. In excess of 400 small to medium cities are faced with ongoing water scarcity at present.

China recently issued the Drought Relief Regulations (DRR, 2009) that set out the general management of drought management activities, still mostly within a disaster management approach. These are good general guidelines and leave the implementation of the regulations to the provincial and lower levels. The DRR lack specifics they do give considerable scope for interpretation and planning with mitigation as a key part of the approach. DRR also consider the application of science of prediction, definitions and monitoring in drought management. Although not specifically stated this allows a more risk management oriented approach to be developed for drought compared to the current disaster management approach.

Internationally, risk management has become the main policy and approach to drought management coupled with detailed early warning and monitoring, planning and on ground implementation of water saving and efficiency tools to conserve water supplies going into a drought and longer term demand management through integrated planning and actions, not just in a drought emergency situation.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 3 The impact of climate change is an emerging factor to be considered in the drought management strategy. Climatic models give different predictions for already drought prone areas of China. However, even if favourable, models that show very moderate increases in rainfall are considered, this outcome will not change the likelihood of serious water shortages and the impact of drought. Higher temperatures will continue to exacerbate the situation by increasing water use on farm and also increasing urban and industrial use of both water and electricity.

A comprehensive management approach that incorporates early warnings, risk assessment and mitigation, increasing water use efficiency and savings in agriculture, household and industrial users coupled with better monitoring and evaluation mechanisms will be necessary to cope with increased demand from existing supplies and to limit the impacts of multi-year drought.

International experience suggests this is an iterative process that takes time to adapt to different contexts. China has the advantage of an existing system, policies and regulations and can adapt the models and experiences from elsewhere relatively quickly.

1.2 TOR for Drought Management TA The objective of the Technical Assistance (TA) is to review and analyse the history and impacts of drought in China, review the existing legal and institutional frameworks; policies’ regulations and emergency responses to drought and make recommendations regarding the potential for a drought risk management strategy for China.. This is a different approach to the current emergency response focus for drought and represents the start of a process of change. A process for addressing the required changes is presented in the form of a (i) strategic framework, action plan, (ii) policy statement, and (iii) recommended pilot activities as a development and learning exercise to support change. This will take some time to work through the systems and must operate at different levels to have an impact. At the national and provincial levels, information, research, forecasting, monitoring and planning and, changing attitudes and funding mechanisms will be the key whilst planning, water saving/efficiency and conservation and education will be the key at the water use end. Considerable changes in attitudes and thinking will be required to implement such a change.

1.2.1 Terms of Reference

The terms of Reference for the project are given below: x Comprehensive review and assessment of existing strategies, policies, regulations, institutional structures, cross sector cooperation on drought management; x Review current and historic drought situations in China, including social, economic, and environment, identify and assess key issues and recommend strategies accordingly; x Review and assess international and domestic practices and technologies in sustainable drought management in selected countries and river basins; x Conduct international workshop and international study tour for MWR officials to exchange experiences and discussion of drought management; x Conduct pilot tests; x Formulate a national drought management strategy framework and action plan and development of a handbook; x Hold a workshop for wider dissemination of study findings.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 4 x As the seriousness of the drought in South Western China become more important, ADB requested this be considered in the report for discussion at the final workshop. An Addendum will be prepared for this purpose. x The TA was undertaken a 24-month period, commencing in July 2009 and finishing in June 2011. Case studies were undertaken in selected provinces to support later pilots.

1.3 Management Arrangements This TA Project was funded by ADB and initiated through MWR. ADB and MWR contracted GHD and the IWHR to undertake the study in conjunction with Provincial Water Resource Bureau and representative’s of the SFCDRH at different levels.

Figure 1 Organization Chart for TA Implementation

1.4 Report Structure The report structure has been developed in accordance with ADB requirements and incorporates international and national perspectives. Minor deviations have been made from the Final Report structure proposed in the Interim Report to comments received from the MWR, and a review of the current drought in the southwest provinces.

Much of the field work on pilots and detail of the international workshop are reported in the Interim Report (and not replicated in Final Report) and or appendices to reduce the volume of material and allow easier understanding.

The report structure follows the following sequence (i) explanation of occurrence of drought and influencing factors in China, (ii) analysis of the current approach to managing drought, (iii) review and analysis of international approaches to drought management, (iv) summary of pilot activities in three provinces reviewing drought management practices, (v) discussion of improved means of drought management in China, and (vi) a recommended framework for a risk management approach within the existing guidelines including a strategy framework, action plan, and policy statement. Recommendations are presented for the next steps, including utilising a piloting mechanism to support learning and wider implementation of the recommended framework.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 5 2. Drought Definition and Management Approaches

It is useful to define drought and the different types of drought, as a basis for the management approach.

Drought is a shortfall of precipitation as compared to the level of precipitation that normally occurs in a particular area. It is not a drought if it fails to rain in an area during months when there is usually no rain or during a period that is “normally” dry. This is a “normal” seasonal variation in precipitation. Countries have differing definitions of drought, particularly as it affects the human and economic interface.

In China there are several different common phrases used to describe a drought or water scarce situation in different contexts and this complicates interpretation. The DRR has a definition for drought disaster not drought. The following definitions are internationally accepted definitions.

2.1 Drought definitions and terminology

2.1.1 Meteorological Drought

A meteorological drought is a deficiency of precipitation over an extended timeframe. This relates to local conditions and varies spatially. It can be localised or very widespread and occurrence is not readily predictable. Meteorological drought is an important starting point in monitoring and early warning systems because these provide a historical reference as well as real time data for small localised and large scale widespread changes in precipitation. These can also form the basis of severity indices, often expressed as percentiles of normal precipitation, depending on the type of drought and water use. Meteorological drought focuses on the natural conditions as presented, seen, measured and quantified. Other definitions of drought focus on the interactions between the natural conditions and humans and related impacts such as the environment for grazing animals or ecological flows in rivers.

2.1.2 Hydrological Drought

A hydrological drought is defined when surface and sub surface or ground water supplies are lower or less available than predetermined levels set from previous timeframes. This is more difficult to determine and define because there are many possible uses for the water and different mixes of sources depending on locations. The water in manmade reservoirs and canals could be used to alleviate an agricultural drought but might be preferred for urban use or electricity generation first. Hence, when there is insufficient water to meet these competing needs from all sources a hydrological drought occur with large impacts and potential for conflicts between competing users. This is an increasing problem because as populations grow and demand increases, supplies from all sources come under threat and recovery from a drought can be very slow as recharge of storage takes time especially for large reservoirs and ground water. Hence, recovery is an important factor and a hydrological drought can continue after the obvious precipitation has returned to a normal pattern until storages are filled again.

2.1.3 Agricultural Drought

An agricultural drought is defined as the availability of soil moisture to support crops and forage growth. Soil moisture varies considerably from one location to the next and is affected by many factors including soil type, water holding capacity, slope, infiltration rates and land use. Hence an agricultural

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 6 drought in one area does not constitute an agricultural drought in another under similar conditions. Also, a shortfall of soil moisture during a crop growth cycle might be critical to success, hence that shortfall might be called an agricultural drought but be quite limited in extent. It is possible that there was rainfall during this time but insufficient moisture actually penetrated the soil to sustain the crop. An agricultural drought is usually first to interfere with human activities, particularly where direct rainfall and runoff are used for agricultural production such as rain fed agriculture and grazing activities.

2.1.4 Socioeconomic Drought

This refers to the impacts of drought on communities and economies and should not be confused with the meteorological and hydrologic drought definitions. It refers to the impacts of drought within and outside of the actually drought affected area because of the flow on effects on the wider economy.

2.1.5 Water Scarcity

Water scarcity is a result of the demand for water exceeding the supply and can have many causes. Water scarcity will be exacerbated by drought. In China there is confusion between water scarcity and drought. It is common in areas of that have a rainfall pattern that is dry during specific period such as the spring call this “spring drought” when in fact it is normal for that time of the year.

2.1.6 Arid Areas

An arid area has a low rainfall naturally. Precipitation can also be highly variable spatially and over time. These areas are subject to drought although it can be difficult to assess the start and end of the drought. These environments are resilient but are often fragile and easily damaged by human activity such as grazing.

2.1.7 Spatial Aspects of Drought

The spatial aspects of drought refer to geographical spread of a drought. From a drought’s spatial aspect, even when drought occurs in unpopulated areas, the impacts can be both local and far- reaching. A drought may dry out vegetation that will harm wildlife, increase the potential for wildfires, erosion, distant air pollution from sand and dust storms, and eventually lead to downstream flooding. Drought-stricken areas upstream of populated areas will deliver less water runoff to the streams and rivers that are the water source for municipal and agricultural water supply. Small populations that rely solely on their own watershed for water supply will be severely affected when rain fails. Populations across the world may be affected by increased grain prices due to the impacts of drought on agriculture in another country.

2.1.8 Drought Mitigation

Drought Mitigation are measures that are taken to limit the impacts of drought on target groups such as farmers or communities or the environment such as environmental flows in rivers. Mitigation takes many forms. Traditionally, much of mitigation was structural such as water storage and emergency supply. However, it also extends into non structural measures such as insurance, social security benefits, long term water saving programs, changing practices for irrigation, restoration of wetlands as water reserves and so on. Hence mitigation goes beyond the short emergency response and encompasses longer term practices that address drought and general water scarcity. Drought mitigation is a sub set of both risk and disaster management approaches.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 7 2.1.9 Emergency or Disaster Response

An emergency or disaster response is measures taken in response to a serious drought impact defined as an emergency. This implies the situation is already serious and needs such a response. The current approach in China is an emergency response supported by mitigation measures. This is said to be a reactive response measure because it is reacting to a known situation.

In China under the DRR, Article 2 gives drought disaster definition as -

“Drought disaster mentioned in this Regulation refers to water shortage event, which is caused by rainfall deficiency and water supply failure, and does harm to the living, production and ecology” –as translated.

2.1.10 Drought Severity Classification

Drought Severity Classification is a means of measuring the severity of drought against selected criteria that are important within the context of the drought situation. These vary from country to country. China has a National Drought Classification Standard, coming into effect in 2009 (see Appendix 2). This has a severity classification based on four types of drought- agricultural, pastoral and urban drought and a lack of drinking water drought. The severity ranges through mild, moderate and severe to extreme. Objective criteria are used to set these standards although these would need to rely upon a sound information base for implementation. It will take some time for these to be used throughout the vulnerable parts of the country. These have been established to support emergency relief measures and facilitate the flow of funds and equipment into drought affected areas.

2.2 Concept of Risk Management The concept of drought risk management is based on the knowledge that drought will re-occur; that the severity of a particular drought event cannot be readily predicted in advance; that preparation and planning for drought is necessary to mitigate drought impacts; that mitigation is an ongoing process involving structural and non structural measures and, that all water users have a responsibility to manage water use as efficiently as possible.

Risk can be defined in different ways hence risk management is also open to interpretation. When combined with the emotional context of drought induced suffering of individuals, communities, animals and the environment the risk can be magnified and distorted. Risk can be described as the “chance of loss” (Macquarie Dictionary 2008) or as described by Hayman and (Cox 2005) “uncertainty with consequences” (Anderson and Dillon 1992) and cite Clark and Brinkley (2001) in defining risk management “involves reducing uncertainty, coping with variability, avoiding peril and exploiting opportunities”. Drought risk in a wider context can be described as the regions exposure to the natural hazard and society’s vulnerability to it (Wilhite 2006).

The common description in relation to drought risk is- Risk = Hazard x Exposure x Vulnerability where Risk exists where people, property, production and means of production can be affected by drought;

Hazard is present where drought is likely and people and resources can be affected;

Exposure is the probability of drought occurring and the number of people and resources affected;

Vulnerability is the potential impact and/or ability to cope with the impacts of drought.

This function provides a means of assessing risk within a given context. However, these variables can be calculated in many ways depending on the context and situation and the function is not definitive

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 8 scientific or mathematical construct as such. For drought, a very good data base interpreted through verified models is needed to provide a sound assessment of risk, develop prediction indices based on high confidence levels for different locations. The variables of hazard and vulnerability are dynamic and will continue to change with changing population and development pressures as well as influences such as climate change (Downing and Bakker 2000).

The process of dynamic risk assessment is just starting in China with work at IWHR and Liaoning Province. At present much of the information collected in relation to drought events in China is not useful in risk assessment in its current form.

2.3 Risk Management versus Disaster Relief Management The difference between drought risk management and drought disaster management is the management timeframe:

Risk management is a proactive approach and is focused on the design of measures in advance of a drought that are intended to be put in place to prevent or mitigate the level of risk exposure and hence vulnerability to impacts. This approach seeks to build resilience in the systems to cope better in the future through structural and non structural measures on an ongoing basis.

Disaster management is a reactive approach based on the implementation of measures and actions after a drought disaster is recognised. This approach applies to emergency situations and is likely to produce inefficient technical and economic solutions since actions are taken under stress without the time to adequately evaluate options. This tends to support dependence on emergency relief measures rather than resilience.

Historically, the risk of drought was generally associated with farming and grazing but this has changed because population increase and development is placing pressure on both food production (that requires water and irrigation on farms) and the need for increasing volumes of water for communities and industrial use. The increased pressure on the overall environment by population pressure makes the risk much wider and the need for better management approaches more acute. This means that many areas that were not considered as a serious drought risk early last century are now at risk. The risk may be from water scarcity that is ongoing and would be exacerbated by drought events.

Figure 2 below outlines the difference between a reactive and proactive approach for drought management. The proactive approach is more complicated but supports a longer term outcome compared to the reactive approach. It leads to improved resilience, better planning and more timely actions.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 9 Figure 2 Comparisons of the Reactive and Proactive Approach to Drought Issues

REACTIVE APPROACH

Monitoring of present Perception of drought Search of emergency Implementation of water resources event onset measures to be emergency measures availability adopted (to be reinforced if drought continues

PROACTIVE APPROACH

Evaluation of long- term water resources availability Assessment of water Evaluation of drought Plan of long-term deficiency risk impacts on societal preventive actions sectors (risk-based water resources plan) Evaluation of future water requirements Plan of short-term actions (contingency plan) Monitoring of hydro- meteorological variables Early warning of Implementation of potential water short-term action plan shortages Monitoring of present water resources availability

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 10 3. Geography Meteorology and Hydrology of China

This Chapter presents an overview of the physical features of China; geography, meteorology and hydrology. These have an impact on occurrence and severity of drought in China. As a large and physically diverse country, drought and its impacts vary widely across the country, hence any action to address these will need to be varied and take account of the diversity. This review provides background information on China that will influence the likelihood of drought and provide geophysical context for the report.

3.1 Geography China is situated in the south eastern part of Eurasia, between 03°12’ to 53°43’ longitude, and 03°12’ to 53°43’latitude. On the southeast is the Pacific Ocean, in the northwest protruding into the hinterland of the Eurasian continent, and in the southwest are South Asia and Southeast Asia. It is about 5200 kilometres’ long from the most eastern end of the confluence point between the Heilongjiang River and the Ussuri River to the most western end of the Pamirs in Xinjiang. Starting from the main channel near the Mohe River of Heilongjiang Province at the northern end to the southern most island of the James Shoal, it is about 5500 kilometres long. It claims a total area of about 9.6 million square kilometres and is the third largest country in the world. China’s total boundary length of the land area is about 20,000 kilometres, and the mainland coastline stretches about 18,000 kilometres, while its islands coastline is about 14,000 kilometres’ long.

China's terrain is generally higher altitude in the west and low altitude in the east, stretching from west to east in three terraced-levels. The highest level is the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, with an average altitude above 4,000 meters in general, known as “Roof of the World”. The Plateau has abundant lakes and snow covered mountains but is sparsely populated and is the birthplace of China's major rivers. The second level is between the north and east of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The altitude of this area is 1000 ~ 2000 meters above sea level. It comprises large plateaus and basins and is the transitional area of the major rivers of China, with the population relatively concentrated in the level ground, the basins and plains. The third level starts from the Daxing’an Mountains, the Taihang Mountain, and the Wu Mountain, east of the eastern edge lines of the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau until the coastal region. The altitude at this level is generally below 500 meters with only a small number of local peaks in about 2000 meters. In this area, from west to east are hills and plains. The altitude of most of plains is below 200 meters above sea level. From north to south there are the Northeast Plain, North China Plain, the Yangtze River Plain, the Pearl River Delta Plain and the eastern coastal region. These plain areas are densely populated with relatively well developed economy.

China's Tibet Autonomous Region and Qinghai Province are located in the region of the first level; the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Gansu Province, the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Sichuan, Guizhou, Chongqing, Yunnan and Shaanxi Province, in the second level; Hebei Province, Beijing Municipality, Tianjin Municipality, Shandong Province, Liaoning Province, Jilin Province, Heilongjiang Province, Shanghai Municipality, Jiangsu, Anhui, Zhejiang, Fujian, Hunan, Hubei, Guangdong Province and the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region in the third level.

In China, there are complex and diverse landforms, the mountainous area accounts for approximately 33 percent of the total land, the plateau about 26 percent, hills around 10 percent, the basin about 19 per cent, and plains about 12 percent.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 11 3.2 Meteorology China’s climate varies from south to north covering six climatic zones including the equatorial zone, tropical, subtropical, warm temperate, temperate and alpine. Based on precipitation and evaporation, China can be classified into four zones, that is, humid, semi-humid, arid and semi-arid. The annual precipitation in humid areas is mostly 800mm or more, semi-humid areas in 400 ~ 800mm, semi-arid mostly 200 ~ 400mm, and arid regions below 200mm per annum.

The distinctive typography represented in three terraced-levels from west to east leads to the temperate and subtropical monsoon climate prevalent in eastern and southern China. The influence of maritime currents in summer and continental currents in winter, rainy and hot days or warm and humid days usually occur over the same period. As a result, it is dry in winter and wet in summer in these areas. The summer monsoon is the predominant influence, the precipitation is more abundant and there is more severe weather in summer. In the southwest monsoon, there are distinct rainy and dry seasons in southern Tibet and most parts of Yunnan. The Northwest inland areas have very little precipitation and are dominated by a dry continental climate.

The climate in China is characterized with three distinctive features:

 The first is the strong influence of the monsoon. In most areas of China, the wind changes regularly with the alternation of seasons. Due to the thermal difference between land and ocean, in winter the inland of Asia is dominated by cold high pressure while the eastern and southern ocean is by relatively hot low pressure. Thus, the northerly and northwest wind is prevalent in winter in China as the atmosphere is flowing from high-pressure zone to low-pressure zone. The opposite pattern occurs in summer when the temperature on land is higher than that of the ocean, so that the land becomes a low-pressure zone and the ocean a high-pressure zone. As a result, the southeast wind or southwest wind prevails in summer. As the wind brings dry air from the land and moist air from the ocean, most rainfall occurs in summer from May to September. The monsoon climate is characterized with cold winter with little rainfall and hot summer with most rainfall. This climate is favourable to agricultural production shows that the prosperity and development in the eastern part of China has close a relationship with the favourable conditions brought by the monsoon.

 The second is the continental climatic influence. This accentuates extremes in temperature because of the land mass and distance from the sea.

 The third is the diversity of the climate because China is a large country with many microclimates. The Mohe River in the north of 53 ° N, the most northern part of China, is a cold temperate zone. The Spratly Islands in the 3 ° N, the most southern part of China, has a tropical climate. In China there are a great number of mountains, valleys, hills and basins. It is cool to cold over 4,500 meters on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. It is warm to hot all year round in summer in the Spratly Islands. In the central part of Yunnan, the temperature is moderate year round. The majority of the rest of China has four distinct seasons.

3.3 Hydrology China has many rivers. There are about 50,000 rivers with a drainage area of above 100km2, 1500 with a drainage area of over 1000km2, and 97 with a drainage area of more than 10000km2. The basin area of the Yangtze River is of 1.8 million km2. The annual runoff volume of the total rivers in China reaches 2.7115 trillion m3.

The distinctive topography of China influences the development of rivers. The uplift on the transitional zones between the three stepped landforms in China is the major source of rivers. The east and south edges of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau at the first level is the origin of some of the largest rivers in China,

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 12 including the Yangtze River and the Yellow River. The eastern edge at the second level, i.e. the belt along the Daxing’an Mountain, the mountainous area of Shanxi, Hebei, and West Henan, and the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, is the birthplace of Heilongjiang River, the Liaohe River, the Haihe River, the Huaiher River and the Pearl River; at the third level, i.e. the belt along the Changbai Mountain, the hilly land of Shandong, and the mountainous area of the southeast coast, it is the birthplace of the relatively smaller rivers in China, such as the Tumen, Yalu, Qiantang and the Min Rivers. The major river systems in China flow from west to east into the sea.

China's rivers can be classified into two categories, the outflow river that flows into the ocean and the inland river with no connection with the ocean. The drainage area of the outflow rivers covers about two-thirds of the China. Most of these outflow rivers flow into the Pacific Ocean from west to east or southeast including the Heilongjiang, Liaohe, Haihe, Yellow, Huaihe, Yangtze, Pearl, Lancang, Qiantang, and Min River; the Nu, Brahmaputra and other rivers flow south out of the national boundary into the Indian Ocean; the Irtysh River in the northwest of Xinjiang runs through Russia into the Arctic. In addition to the outflow of rivers in Xinjiang, the other outflow rivers of China are mainly in the monsoon climate zone, bearing the monsoon characteristics with run-off varying between seasons. However, most of the inland rivers are seasonal with variable flows and are underdeveloped.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 13 4. History of drought and drought impacts in China

4.1 Major Recorded Droughts During the period from 206 BC to 1949, there were 1056 ‘severe’ droughts in China. Although the information is not a complete record this indicates one drought every two years on the average somewhere in the country. Since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, the government has attached great importance to drought controls and built a large number of water storage and irrigation projects, so that drought impacts have been limited to a degree. However, with rapid economic development and population increases, the impacts of drought continue to affect China and the situation will probably continue to worsen especially with climate change influences. The average annual drought affected area is about 32,390 million mu, accounting for around 60 percent of the impacts of a variety of meteorological disasters. For example, the drought from 1959 to 1961 damaged an area of 164,700,000 mu and caused grain reduction of 61.15 billion kilograms.

4.2 Recent Recorded Droughts

4.2.1 The Continuous Severe Drought (from 1637-1646)

This is the longest drought recorded with the largest affected area and population. The drought affected twenty provinces. In most of northern parts of China, the drought lasted from four to eight years. It started in the north of Shaanxi and concluded in Hunan in 1646. The severe drought-stricken areas occurred in the regions along the Yellow River and the Haihe River as well as the 15 provinces (or autonomous regions) along the middle and lower reach of the Yangtze River. The natural disasters led to the collapse of the economy and social unrest was intensified further. As a consequence, the peasant uprising broke out in Guangzhong of Shaanxi province under the leadership of Li Zicheng and Zhang Xianzhong and soon swept through half of China. In 1644, the uprising army occupied Beijing and led to the demise the Ming Dynasty.

4.2.2 The Continuous Drought Disaster in the North Area (from 1874-1879)

The drought lasted for three consecutive years in the Huang-Huai River Basin from 1874 to 1879, and resulted in failure of crops. 13 million people died; the largest recorded incidence of death before the 20th century in China. The continuous drought affected half of China's population, with an estimation of 200 million victims of the drought.

4.2.3 The Continuous Drought Disaster in the Northwest Area (1928-1932)

Severe drought occurred in Shaanxi, Shanxi, Ningxia, Gansu, and Henan, and also had an impact upon the eastern part of Qinghai, north of Sichuan, West of Hubei, and the central part of Hunan.

In 1928, the severe drought-stricken areas expanded to South Shanxi, North Henan, the whole of Gansu province, and North Shaanxi. In 1929 the drought extended to the whole of Shaanxi province and Gansu province, killing 2.5 million people in 88 counties of Shaanxi and 2.3 million people in 58 counties of Gansu. The drought continued until 1932. It is estimated that such a precipitation event in arid northern China as occurred in 1928 will reoccur in 50 years. The annual precipitation in each station is lower than that of the lowest rainfall from 1950 to 1990.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 14 4.2.4 Extreme Drought Disaster (from 1959-1961)

The drought in 1959 damaged 5.07 million mu of land across the country, affecting 23.7% of farm land; the crops on 167 million mu failed with the loss of 10.8 billion kilograms of grain, a decrease of 6.4%, affecting 47.03 million people. In 1960 the drought damaged an area of 5.72 million mu of land, affecting 25.3% of agricultural land with the crops 2.42 million mu failed and the loss of 11.28 billion kilograms of grain, a decrease of 7.8%, affecting a population of 61.07 million, accounting for 11.6 percent of the total population. In 1961 the drought afflicted an area of 5.68 million mu of land, 26.4% of agricultural land, with the crops 2.79 million mu failing and the loss of 13.23 billion kilograms of grain, a decrease of 9.7%, affecting 64.34 million people, accounting for 12 percent of the total population. The continuous drought from 1959 to 1961 had a wide impact upon the regions along the Yangtze River, the Huaihe River, the Yellow River and the Han River. Over the three years, the drought- stricken zones cover an area of more than 5 million mu, which resulted in a sharp decrease of grain yields leading to extreme shortage in food supplies. This is the so-called “the natural disasters in three consecutive years” since the founding of the People’s Republic of China, which resulted in a nationwide famine and brought about serious harm to people’s life and the national economy.

4.2.5 Serious Drought in Northern China in 1972

In 1972, drought occurred in much of China with the most severe impact in the north. In some areas, dry weather lasted through both spring and summer. The drought-stricken zones cover an area of 46,049 hectares of crops whilst 20,408 hectares of crops failed.

In 1972, the rainfall was one half to one quarter of normal in most parts of Beijing, Tianjin, Shanxi, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, West and South Liaoning, West Jilin, Southwest Heilongjiang, West Henan, Northwest Shandong, North Shaanxi, East and Central Gansu, Central Qinghai and the most part of Ningxia. The precipitation in West Hebei and Central Shanxi was up to one sixth of normal. The annual rainfall was 217mm and 228mm in Taiyaun and Shijiazhuang respectively, the lowest recorded over the past thirty years.

4.2.6 Extreme Drought in Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River and Huai River Basin in 1978

The serious drought in 1978 occurred in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Huaihe River Basin.

Precipitation was much less than water demand and the drought continued to spread through eastern and into southern provinces and along the Yangtze. The drought started to ease into autumn.

In 1978 the drought affected a total of 602,550,000-mu farmland, damaging an area of 269,550,000 mu farmland, with 20.05 million tons of grain cut, affecting 79.06 million people in the nationwide.

4.2.7 Severe Drought in Yellow River Basin in 1997

The Yellow River dried out on 7th February 1997 for the first time, with the Lijin section in the lower Yellow River running dry 11 times until 13th October, a total of 183 days. The dry section once extended to the Liuyuankou River in Kaifeng City, Henan Province, with a length of 700 kilometres. The suspension of flow in the Yellow River caused more than 20 million mu of farmland to be without irrigation water, and affected the drinking water for more than 1.3 million people. Some industrial and mining enterprises were forced to limit or stop production.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 15 4.2.8 Drought Event in 2000- 2001 and 2002 – 2003

The year of 2000 was the most severe dry year since the founding of the People’s Republic of China. In most parts of the country, the rainfall was much lower than normal. Windy days prevailed in spring with frequent sand storms. The temperature in summer was much higher than that of previous years. The river runoff was severely limited and most of reservoirs were short of water storage. As a result, severe droughts occurred in more than twenty provinces, particularly in the west of Northeast China, most part of North China, the east of Northwest China, the regions along the Yellow River and the Huai River as well as the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.

In 2001 there was a total area of 577 million mu of crops afflicted by the drought, including an damaged area of 356 million mu, with crops on 96.3 million mu failed, with a loss of 54.8 billion kilograms of grains and 53.8 billion yuan of economic crops. It was the third largest drought (after the drought in 1978 and 2000) in terms of the affected area, and the second largest in terms of the damaged area and the loss incurred there from since the founding of the People’s Republic of China.

There was a shortage of water in more than 535 cities above the county level in 20 provinces including Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanxi, the Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Shandong, Sichuan and Gansu affecting 32.95 million people and 955 million mu of farmland. During the worst period, some medium and large cities in the north were forced to limit water supply at specific time with restriction on amounts to be used, such as Tianjin, Tangshan, Changchun, Dalian, Yantai and Weihai.

In 2002 there occurred a medium and slightly severe drought in China with a total of 333 million mu of crops had been afflicted. The damaged area and the loss of grains by the drought reached 199 million mu and 31.30 million tons respectively. The drought also brought about a loss of 32.5 billion yuan of economic crops. The drought caused water shortages in 719 cities of 21 provinces affecting some 31 million people.

The drought in 2003 was more severe than a medium drought. An area of 373 million mu of farmland was affected, with 217 million mu damaged and crops failed on 44.7 mu. The drought had brought about a loss of 30.8 million tons of grains and 34.6 billion yuan of economic forests. The drought impacted on grassland, and affected 28.1 million livestock, of which 530,000 died, with a direct economic loss of 1.42 billion yuan. The affected area of forestry reached 123,000 square kilometres, with the direct economic loss of 4.98 billion yuan. The drought affected an area of 14.79 million mu of aquaculture and reduced the output by 530,000 tons, with a direct economic loss of 4.41 billion yuan. The national mining industry suffered direct economic losses of 20.92 billion yuan due to the shortage of water and electricity resulting from drought. The economic losses in industry and agriculture totalled 66.3 billion yuan (excluding food loss). In addition, the drought brought about a shortage of drinking water for 24.41 million rural and urban people and 13.84 million livestock. The severe drought occurred in Hunan, Jiangxi, Fujian, Zhejiang, Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia.

4.2.9 Drought in Sichuan and Chongqing Area in 2006

In 2006, drought or water scarcity occurred in most of China. The drought in Chongqing and the east of Sichuan was particularly severe. The drought across the whole country was sightly more severe than a medium drought.

The drought in Chongqing was a rare case over the past one hundred years. The drought caused a loss of 3.01 million tons of grain and a reduction of fruits and vegetables by over 30 percent, as well as a total of 3.35 million mu of economic forests seriously affected. During the drought, there were 116 forest fires with a fire area of 13,000 mu. The direct economic loss caused by the drought reached 9.07 billion yuan. In Sichuan, the drought led to 6.82 million tons of grain loss. Due to water shortages,

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 16 severe impacts on rice fish culture and sericulture occurred. Pigs had to be slaughtered before they were mature. An area of 1.3 million mu of trees died, and the direct economic agricultural loss reached 12.5 billion yuan. In addition, the drought also made cracks in 942 dams.

4.2.10 Severe Drought in the Sanjiang Plain in 2007

In the summer of 2007 in Heilongjiang, the temperature was relatively higher and the rainfall was lower than an average year, an indication of the emergence of a drought.

The drought affected an area of 97.5 million mu of farmland and damaged an area of 46.995 million mu with crops whilst 8.325 million mu of crops failed. The drought caused a loss of 5.763 million tons of grains and 4.97 billion yuan of economic crops.

4.2.11 Severe Drought in the Yunnan, Guangxi and Guizhou, extending into Sichuan and Chongqing in 2009/10

Low rainfall from May to September 2009 has seriously affected agriculture and rural drinking water in these provinces with small reservoirs and rivers running dry and crop failure. This impact is ongoing into April 2010 with failure of winter/spring crops and orchards and inability to plant summer crops. It will have a longer term impact as yet to be assessed.

Although relatively short in duration, this demonstrates the precarious nature of water resources in China caused by high population pressures, lack of early warning and minimal demand management leading to rapid impacts on water supplies when drought occurs. The impact on households has been swift and harsh and the wider impact can be seen in food production and economic crops including vegetables and flowers.

An Addendum attached to this report will undertake a review of the situation and how this could be addressed differently based on a risk management approach. Unfortunately, limited information is currently available for analysis of process and preparedness.

4.3 Impacts of Drought Agriculture: Drought is the most harmful natural disaster to agricultural production in China. From 1949-2007, the multi-year average of affected farmland covers an area of 321 million mu, the damaged area 142 million mu, and a loss of 15,538,000 tons of grains. Over the past 59 years, there were 18 years that the drought-stricken area was over 400 million mu. The drought-hit area was over 500 million mu in 1959, 1960, 1961, 1978, 1999, 2000 and 2001. There were 16 years that the drought had damaged an area of over 200 million mu. In 1997, 2000 and 2001, the damaged area was over 300 million mu. There were nine years that drought caused over 30 million tons of grain loss. In 1997, 2000, 2001 and 2006, the grain loss was more than 40 million tons. Particularly, the drought in 2000 had afflicted an area of 6.08 million mu of crops, accounting for 25.9 percent of the sown area, about twice the multi-year average affected area. In 2000, the damaged area reached 4.02 million mu, about three times of the multi-year average. The drought caused a loss of approximately 60 million tons of grain, about four times of the multi-year average, accounting for 13 percent of the total grain production.

Urban areas: The drought has seriously affected the drinking water of urban and rural residents. From 1991 to 2007 an average of 29.13 million rural people and more than 230 million livestock were short of drinking water every year. In 2001 and 2006, there were over 32 million rural people with a shortage of drinking water. There were more than 400 cities with a perennial water shortage, of which 11 cities had a severe water shortage. In recent years, successive years of drought in most urban areas of the

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 17 north had made water shortage more prominent. During the drought in 2000, there are 620 cities and towns in 18 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) that suffered a shortage of water affecting more than 26 million people, with the direct economic loss of 47 billion yuan.

Ecological aspects: With the rapid economic and social development there has been a substantial increase of water demand that has highlighted the importance of water shortage in many parts of China. The economic and social development has been sustained at the expense of ecological water in parts of China and seriously depleted groundwater, particularly in the north. Ecological drought is demonstrated by the following: the drying out of rivers, shrinking lakes, the expansion of underground funnels, decrease of wetland area, and loss of biodiversity, desertification, shrinking of oasis, and degradation and death of vegetation. The area of land subject to desertification in China has been expanded from 1560 square kilometres in the 1970s to 3436 square kilometres in the late 1990's.

The drought hazard in China is recognised as an increasingly important issue because water scarcity in general is increasing and encompassing more people, therefore increasing the exposure significantly whilst population is increasing and water demand is increasing from a finite resource, therefore vulnerability is increasing. Hence the risk matrix is changing due to continued development that has increased the demand for water resources and changed the nature of demand for water. Drought risk is no longer a rural problem; it is now a much wider problem. The risk matrix needs to be assessed and understood for the country as a whole with particular emphasis give to areas of highest risk. This requires considerable scientific and technical input, time and resources to clearly define the risk across the varied environments in China.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 18 5. Current Drought Management Strategies, Policies and Regulations in China

5.1 Strategies The current strategy for Drought Management is focussed around disaster and relief with an increasing emphasis on planning and mitigation through regulations such as DRR. However, at the implementation levels, the approach, rather than strategy is being driven by the need to more effectively manage water resources (or more precisely to keep delivering water), particularly for growing urban areas and the continuing need to maintain food security for a large population. It will take some time for the DRR regulations to work through the system to local levels. The need for a more integrated approach at national level is recognised through the DRR although how to achieve is not spelt out.

At the operational level drought management is focused on immediate issues of water availability, redistribution and avoidance of more serious consequences from water shortage. The disaster relief background and history means this attitude and approach will continue to be the preferred approach and strategy at this level because it has advantages, particularly for farmers to gain access to water at critical crop growth periods and/or local government officials to overcome urban water shortages. Investigations into the case studies indicate that a short seasonal rainfall in spring can be considered a drought disaster, triggering a response even though this is usually a dry time of the year. However, this is not a sustainable strategy as increasing pressure is placed on scarce resources unless there are also considerable gains in efficiency of on farm water use to justify the water consumed. Similarly, the need to use water more efficiently in urban areas and industry is equally important as is the need to minimise pollution and effectively recycle water for reuse or for groundwater recharge.

The mitigation provisions in the DRR support a mix of measures to address drought although they are not specific and need to be adapted for different conditions and locations. This may limit change in the short term because of the desire to maintain the status quo of existing mechanisms that users have a vested interest in maintaining. However, change will be driven by the increasing competition for water supplies and accentuated by water shortages. The stratification of responsibilities and actions at different levels will require a change in approach and subsequent actions at different levels as a part of a risk management strategy that will take time to implement.

At the national level, the strategy is to improve the overall coordination and management of drought within the context of existing Laws and Regulations and the move to risk management is part of the strategy.

In Article 10, it states that “…….and shall encourage and support the research, distribution, and application of advanced scientific technology related to drought relief”. This can be interpreted as meaning that a more scientific approach will be used although this may also mean that this is within the relief context or disaster context.

However, drought management must move beyond the relief or disaster context and will have to work across ministries and agencies if longer multi-year drought periods are to be managed effectively. This also means cooperation between different agencies and ministries down through line agencies at provincial, municipal and local levels. The National office of SFDRH has representatives from many other agencies and these are mobilised during an emergency or disaster situation but do not operate that way under normal conditions. Recommendations supporting increased cooperation have been

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 19 made before such as in the 2002 Comprehensive Report of Strategy on Water Resources for China’s Sustainable Development (Qian et al 2002).

5.2 Policies The policy framework for drought management in China is part of the overarching Water Law of PRC (2002). This is a general law that states what are good management approaches and principles for water management. Drought management is a small part of the Water Law and is mentioned or inferred in Articles 1, 8, 10, 12, 14, 16, 44, 45 and 52. Earlier references to drought are included in the Prevention and Control of Water Pollution Law 1984, Articles 9 and 34; Environment Protection Law of 1989, Articles 5, 16, 17, 18 and 20; Water and Soil Conservation Law of 1991 Article 1 and, the Flood Control Law of 1997, Article 11 (see Appendix 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5). This reflects the evolving nature of drought management in China as it has gradually assumed a greater importance leading to the establishment of the State Flood and Drought Relief Headquarters (SFDRH). The following paragraphs give a brief history of drought management leading up the establishment of SFDRH.

In the period of 1950 to 1960, drought relief work was led by the Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Water Resources and Ministry of Hydropower successively with the changes to farmland regulations and authorities. When a drought occurred relevant authorities would set up a temporary drought relief direction office to take charge of monitoring the situation and to support the drought stricken area by allotting equipment and materials.

In June 1971, the State Council and CPC Central Committee established the central flood control and drought relief headquarters, staffed from the General Staff Department, State Planning Commission (currently the National Development and Reform Commission), Ministry of Commerce (MOC), Ministry of Communications (MOCS), Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MOAF), Ministry of Finance (MOF) and Ministry of Water Resources and Power Industry (MOWRPI), with the office located at the MOWRPI. This was to strengthen the capability of the nation’s direction in flood control and drought relief work.

In 1977, the State Council established a drought relief direction team under the leadership of the minister of the MOAF, with the office located at the MOAF. In 1979, the State Council changed the structure of the team. The deputy director of the State Planning Commission took the role of team leader and the minister of Ministry of Water Resources took the role of deputy team leader. The office was located in the Ministry of Water Resources (later changed to Ministry of Water Resources and Power Industry); Leaders from Ministry of Agriculture, State Administration of Materials, Ministry of Finance, the 1st Mechanical Industry Department, Ministry of Petroleum, Ministry of Chemical Industry, Ministry of Railways, Ministry of Commerce, Ministry of Light Industry, Ministry of Communications, State Administration of Supply and Marketing Cooperation were members of the team. Later, drought relief offices were set up in each district, city and province, formalizing the drought relief work.

In 1988, the State Council and CPC Central Committee established the State Flood Control Headquarters, located in the Ministry of Water Resources. The previous drought relief direction team was merged into the State Flood Control Headquarters and a flood control and drought relief office was established under the Ministry of Water Resources.

In 1992, the State Council established the State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters to direct and manage flood control and drought relief work. The office located at the Ministry of Water Resources. Its member units include the Propaganda Department of CPC, the State Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Public Security, the Ministry of Civil Affairs, the Ministry of Land and Resources, the Ministry of Construction, the Ministry of Railways, the Ministry of Communications,

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 20 the Ministry of Information Industry, the Ministry of Water Resources, the Ministry of Agriculture, the Ministry of Commerce, the Ministry of Health, Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC), the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television, Meteorological Bureau and Headquarters of Chinese People's Armed Police Force.

5.3 Regulations In 2009 China issued the National level Drought Relief Regulations for PRC (DRR). This could also be translated as the Drought Disaster Regulations of PRC, indicating part of the complexity of drought management and definition. The DRR is the culmination of a long process of increasing recognition of drought management needs.

The regulations are included in Appendix 1, as translated. Given below are the general provisions and headings of the DRR, and, selected Articles that can be used to support the increased role of SFCDRH and the development of a risk management approach.

DRR Chapter I General Provisions

Article 1 This Regulation is formulated in accordance with Water Law of the People's Republic of China, with the aim of taking precautions against drought disaster, mitigating disaster impacts, guaranteeing the domestic water supply, coordinating water supply for production and ecology, and promoting the comprehensive, harmonious and sustainable development of our society.

Article 2 Within the territory of the People's Republic of China, all activities concerning drought disaster preparedness and mitigation shall abide by this Regulation.

Drought disaster mentioned in this Regulation refers to water shortage event, which is caused by rainfall deficiency and water supply failure, and does harm to the living, production and ecology.

Article 3 The work of drought relief should observe the principles of insisting on human-oriented, emphasizing drought preparedness, combining drought preparedness with drought fighting, carrying out work in light of local conditions, taking all factors into consideration and subordinating local interests to general interests.

Article 6 The State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters shall be responsible for organizing and leading the drought relief work nationwide.

Assuming the routine duties for the State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters, the department of water administration under the State Council shall be responsible for guiding, supervising and organizing drought relief work nationwide. Other members of the State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters shall assume relevant responsibilities respectively.

Article 7 The flood control and drought relief headquarters for major rivers and lakes designated by the state, constituted by the relevant people's governments of provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government, and the administrative agencies for these rivers and lakes, shall be responsible for the drought relief work within their jurisdiction. And the administrative agencies for these rivers and lakes shall assume the routine duties of drought relief work for the flood control and drought relief headquarters for major rivers and lakes.

Article 10 The people's governments at various levels and the relevant departments shall carry out education and publicity activities in various forms to raise the awareness of drought fighting and disaster mitigation in the whole society, and shall encourage and support the research, distribution, and application of advanced scientific technology related to drought relief.

Chapter II Drought disaster preparedness

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 21 Articles 13, 14 15, 16,17,18,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,and 28 support the increased role of SFCDRH in a risk management approach.

Chapter III Drought fighting and disaster mitigation

Articles 33, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 45, 46 and 49 support an increased role for SFCDRH in a risk and disaster context with information and mitigation for droughts.

Chapter IV Disaster recovery

Article 52, 54, 55, and 57 promotes insurance for drought relief, recovery and review of drought impacts.

Chapter V Legal Liability

Article 63 supports the legal jurisdiction of SFCDRH in undertaking actionsˊ

Chapter VI Supplementary Provisions

Article 64 and 65 support the SFCDRH and the DRR in enforcement for mitigation and emergency actions.

These allow considerable scope for interpretation and implementation. They also allow scope for increasing application of good science and integration at the national level of information and decision support tools to assist Provincial and lower levels to work with drought situations and improve mechanisms for dealing with drought. How to implement at different levels is a major challenge and the move towards risk management within the disaster relief context remains difficult because of the existing perceptions of disaster relief. The emphasis on mitigation and preparedness needs to be supported at all levels to be effectively implemented in practical ways.

The DRR also emphasises the roles of other water departments and agencies in water management. Thus the need for cooperation and integration in actions to address drought through water management implies a greater degree of cooperation. It is particularly important that the coordination role of SFCDRH is enhanced as part of risk management to take the lead in early warnings and supporting demand management. It has been an ongoing concern of donors and others that the limited cooperation within and between water departments and others has hindered the improvement of water management in China.

Risk management requires cooperation at all stages of the process and a coordinating role for SFCDRH in a proactive manner, supported by good science, would significantly improve drought management even from a disaster management perspective. There is ample scope to support a proactive role that goes beyond preparedness and responding to an emergency within DRR.

5.4 Institutions, Structure and Procedures Drought has been viewed historically as part of a disaster management approach and a small part of a largely flood control management perspective. The structure and procedures for management are part of the existing structure with SFDRH. The DRR of PRC in 2009 (DRR) is the most recent change in regulations and procedures. The DRR Article 1 states the following (as translated)-

“Article 1) This Regulation is formulated in accordance with Water Law of the People's Republic of China, with the aim of taking precautions against drought disaster, mitigating disaster impacts, guaranteeing the domestic water supply, coordinating water supply for production and ecology, and promoting the comprehensive, harmonious and sustainable development of our society.”

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 22 This places drought regulation and hence management within the MWR responsibility and Water Law of PRC policy framework. Hence structures and procedures remain within SFDRH within MWR.

Article 2 states (as translated)-

“Article 2 Within the territory of the People's Republic of China, all activities concerning drought disaster preparedness and mitigation shall abide by this Regulation.

Drought disaster mentioned in this Regulation refers to water shortage event, which is caused by rainfall deficiency and water supply failure, and does harm to the living, production and ecology.”

Drought in this context is seen from a disaster perspective but mitigation is also stated. Mitigation in a wider context can cover a wide range of activities related to drought including physical, structural and non structural activities. The use of decision support tools can be included in this as well.

Article 6 states (as translated) –

“Article 6 The State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters shall be responsible for organizing and leading the drought relief work nationwide.

Assuming the routine duties for the State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters, the department of water administration under the State Council shall be responsible for guiding, supervising and organizing drought relief work nationwide. Other members of the State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters shall assume relevant responsibilities respectively”.

The office of State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters (SFDRH) is located in the MWR. The administrative structure is given below in Figure 3.

State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters (ministries, PLA Headquarters of the Central Staff, Headquarters State Flood Control and State Council of Armed Police) Drought Relief Office

Basin Flood Control Basin Flood Control and and Drought Relief Drought Relief Office Headquarters

Province (autonomous region, Provincial Flood Control Provincial Flood Control and municipality) level government and Drought Relief Drought Relief Office Headquarters

City-level government City-level Flood Control City-level Flood Control and and Drought Relief Drought Relief Office Headquarters

County-level government County-level Flood County-level Flood Control and Control and Drought Drought Relief Office Relief Headquarters

Figure 3 China Flood Control and Drought Relief Organisation Chart

5.5 Decision Making Technically, the SFDRH is represented at all levels of government to county level. This is where information on an emerging drought situation will start to flow back through the system to municipal

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 23 and provincial level. Affected townships and villages would report to the county level administrations first and action can be taken then or be referred further up the system to municipal and provincial levels. If it is felt that further assistance is needed or the situation is getting more serious, this is referred to SFDRH who will evaluate the situation and provide a severity rating. This forms the basis for further assistance from the national level in four categories of drought severity. SFDRH can refer the matter to bodies that can help alleviate problems or provide support in different ways, depending on the situation.

An example of the process was during the recent problems in the Pearl River basin. Low rainfall and low river flows meant that salt water was encroaching from the delta and sea up the river and was affecting fresh water supplies for cities. Ground water levels were also falling. The SFDRH and MWR coordinated the response through the Pearl River Commission for the release of water from dams up stream to flush the downstream and boost fresh water supplies and the national level compensated the dam hydropower suppliers for the water used as this could not be used for electricity generation later.

Whilst this process worked at the higher level where the impact on major cities such as Guangzhou and Shenzhen was serious, the impact lower down the system on farmers and smaller communities is less defined as to the appropriateness and timeliness of responses to drought problems. It appears that much of decision making is ad hoc and based on previous experience rather than a clearly defined plan of action Drought plans are part of the DRR although these have yet to be finalised in many cases and the resources to undertake such activities may be limited at the county level.

The stratification of decision making and responsibilities appears to limit the ability of the current approach to address longer term drought management because it is a lengthy chain and the people implementing on the ground have the least resources to implement a better system. The people at the local level also have access to the least information to base decisions upon apart from there own situations. At provincial level, a good decision making process could take place if cooperation across agencies was in place because the information relating to the severity and spread of the drought could be collated for decision making. This needs some support from a broader data base and a more integrated national level for key indicators and predictors that cover a larger area and cross provincial borders based on meteorological data, remote sensing and climate prediction factors. This would then support a risk management approach from the national level down through the system.

5.6 Structural Measures Drought relief structural measures mainly include water storage projects (reservoirs, ponds, water cellars), water diversion projects (with and without dams), water pumping projects (irrigation and drainage pump stations and electromechanical wells), and water transfer projects. The structural measures differ based on area and natural conditions. Water storage projects consisting of dams and ponds generally are more common in the south; water diversion projects and electromechanical wells are found more often in the north. In the mountain areas, water storage projects are used while the plains rely more heavily on water pumping projects. Although the water conservancy measures are different in different areas, all of the measures are needed in each area.

5.6.1 Water Storage Projects

Common water storage projects include reservoirs, ponds and water cellars in descending order of water storage capacity. When using river runoff in mountainous regions for the purpose of irrigation, dams are constructed in appropriate locations to form reservoirs; ponds are constructed to capture surface water runoff; and water cellars are developed to store rainwater. By constructing these water

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 24 storage projects, it is possible to develop irrigation and increase water supply thereby improving the capacity for drought relief. Reservoirs

A reservoir is an artificial lake used to store water. Reservoirs are often created by building a reinforced dam, usually out of concrete, earth, rock, or a mixture, across a river or stream. Once the dam is completed, the stream fills the reservoir. The benefits of a reservoir include the regulation of runoff for flood control and well as the ability to store water in wet periods that can be released to meet the needs of water users in dry periods. .To date, 85,000 reservoirs have been constructed in China with a total capacity of 565.8 billion m3. Reservoirs have played an important role in the development of irrigation, the control of floods and the provision of water during droughts. They have ensured high and stable agricultural yields, protected lives and property, provided water for urban and rural areas, and helped in the development of the rural economy. Ponds

Ponds are water storage facilities that can capture and store less than 100,000 m3 of surface runoff. These are important water conservancy facilities that are used for irrigation, drought relief, and water supply in rural areas, especially in hilly areas. Ponds have the advantage of requiring a small investment while playing a significant role in terms of their large numbers and wide distribution. People can build, manage and operate these ponds by themselves. Generally speaking, the benefits from ponds can be realized within a year of their construction and construction costs can be small. Water Cellars

The water cellar or water-retention well, is one of the principal forms of rainwater harvesting and storage. The purpose of constructing a water cellar is to provide drinking water for people and livestock and to develop agricultural irrigation. This measure could be used in mountainous and hilly areas where annual rainfall is plentiful but there are serious seasonal deficits. For example, the development of micro-water harvesting projects, such as water cellars, is effective in solving drinking water problems for people and livestock in poor mountain areas. These types of projects can also ensure sustainable development of irrigated agriculture on the northwest plateau and in the northern drought-prone hilly areas.

5.6.2 Water Diversion Projects

A water diversion project diverts surface water from natural water courses by gravity. China has long history of water diversion projects for irrigation. At present, these irrigation diversion projects continue to be one of China’s most important type of water facilities, playing an important role in drought protection and agricultural development.

Diversion projects may or may not have dams depending upon river flow, water level and irrigation elevation.

5.6.3 Water Pumping Projects

A water-pumping project pumps groundwater or surface water from rivers or lakes and does not include pumping water from storage or diversion works.. Pumped irrigation uses various sources of power to lift water for use and generally requires only the construction of pump stations. Water source, topography and geology have little influence on this type of project. Its advantages include small capital investment, short construction period, and immediate benefits. However, operational costs are

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 25 higher than gravity irrigation. By 2005, the areas benefiting from pumped irrigation exceeded 0.5 billion mu and accounted for about 59.3% of China’s irrigated area. Pump Stations

Pump stations are facilities that pump water from a lower to higher elevation or transport water to remote areas for farm irrigation. These stations are responsible for the irrigation of farms of 0.234 billion mu. Electromechanical Wells

By 2005, China had installed 4,785,700 electromechanical wells, irrigating 0.256 billion mu. These wells help to develop and sustain irrigated agriculture, improve and develop water conservancy facilities in pasturelands and solve drinking water problems for people and livestock in some areas.

5.6.4 Water Transfer Projects

Water transfer projects are used to transfer water resources from water rich areas to those where water is scarcer. These projects are intended to support sustainable regional economic and social development. Water is transferred by means of rivers, channels or pipelines. The water transfer projects can solve the mismatch between water resources and other resources (such as land, labour), thereby optimizing of the use of resources.

Until the 1970s, water transfer projects were primarily intended for irrigation. Beginning in the 1980s, new water transfer projects are increasingly for the purpose of solving urban water supply problems. This includes water transfers from Luan River to Tianjin, the Yellow River to Qingdao, the Bi River to Dalian, and the Yellow River to Shanxi. These projects have produced significant economic, social and ecological benefits.

Currently, implemented or planned large-scale water transfer projects include: the south-to-north water transfer project; water transfer projects to central Yunnan; to water deficit cities in middle part of Jilin Province; from the Irtysh river to Urumchi in Xijiang; and from the Yangtze River to Huai River.

5.6.5 Water Saving Irrigation Project

Water saving irrigation utilizes precipitation and irrigation water efficiently to achieve higher crop yields with less water. The requirements of water saving irrigation can differ depending on the water source, crops, natural conditions, type of water-saving equipment and socioeconomic conditions.

From the 1950s to the 1970s large scale irrigation water management included techniques to reduce channel seepage and improve surface irrigation. However, flood irrigation remains widespread and irrigation efficiency is low, averaging about 30%. In normal years, the average applied water factor is about 520m3/mu. Since the 1980s, there has been increasing pressure on water resources in general in China, causing increased competition between different water users. Agriculture is still the largest user but demand is increasing from urbanisation and industrialisation. The accelerated transition of traditional to modern agriculture has brought the need for increasing and more efficient irrigation.

By 2005, the total irrigated land area was 0.928 billion mu. Projects to save water cover about one- third of this, or 0.32 billion mu. Almost all of the areas covered by water saving projects involve seepage reduction in channels (92%) to reduce distribution losses. The remaining projects that use irrigations methods that affect the amount of water applied to crops include sprinkler and micro irrigation. Water saving irrigation methods are developing rapidly and cover over 50% of the irrigated area in some inland river districts, such as the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River and the Hai River. Nationwide, the average water used for irrigation is about 450 m3 /mu (ranging from 390

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 26 m3/mu in the north to 520m3/mu in the south). When water saving techniques are used the average water use is about 380 m3 /mu (315 m3/mu in the north and 470 m3/mu in the south).

5.6.6 Drought Emergency Water Supply Projects

Emergency water supply projects are developed during severe droughts when existing water supply projects are inadequate to meet the needs of urban and rural drinking water, important industry, core agriculture and ecological districts.

Many cities have developed emergency water supply projects for drought. These include a storage reservoir with a capacity of 0.33 million has m3/ day in the Huairou District of Beijing; emergency ground water projects in Tianjin; water transfer projects from the Bi and the Yingna Rivers to Dalian; a two-phase water transfer project from the Songhua River to Changchun; the Songhua River project in Harbin; and the construction of the Continent to Zhoushan submarine water diversion project with a capacity of 86000 m3/day. In 2001, the state government invested 1.24 billion yuan to provide support to ten Northern provinces to develop emergency water supply projects.

5.6.7 Other Projects Soil and Water Conservation Projects

The purposes of soil and water conservation projects are to prevent soil and water loss; improve the use of soil and water resources in mountainous regions, hilly areas and sandy areas; maintain and improve land productivity; maximize the economic and social benefits of soil and water resources; and develop comprehensive ecological techniques. By the end of 2005, the total area improved by soil and water conservation projects was 947,000 km2,of which, 371,000 km2 was in small watershed improvement. The cumulative area of ecological improvement was 600,000 km2; the total amount of soil and water conservation project was 13 million. Artificial Precipitation (Cloud Seeding) Projects

Large-scale artificial rainfall is expected to become an important measure in the effort to develop additional water sources in China. Artificial rainfall has two objectives. The first is to induce rainfall from clouds that would otherwise not produce it. The second is to increase the amount of rain released from rain clouds. This measure is considered an effective and sustainable way to increase the total water supply and shrink the gap between supply and demand. Recycled Water Projects

Recycled water projects involve secondary or tertiary treatment of municipal wastewater for the purposes of reuse. In 2003, the Standardization Administration of the People’s Republic of China issued three national standards, including Classification Standard of Municipal Wastewater for Reuse, The Reuse of Urban Recycling Water-Water Quality Standards for Urban Miscellaneous Water, and The Reuse of Urban Recycling Water-Water-Water Quality Standard for Landscape Water. Subsequently, two other national standards were issued: The Reuse of Urban Recycling Water-Water Quality Standard for Groundwater Recharge and The Reuse of Urban Recycling Water-Water Quality Standard for Industrial Uses. These standards provide the basis for the reuse of recycled wastewater.

Currently, only 30 percent of municipal wastewater receives any treatment and only 15 percent receives secondary treatment. The rate of water reuse is quite low. The “Tenth Five-Year” Plan, states that the rate of municipal wastewater treatment will reach more than 60% in 2010. Desalination Projects

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 27 Desalination is a method to reduce the level of salts in water from 3500mg/L to 500mg/L for potable use. At present, desalinated water can be used for domestic water use by urban and island residents and for industrial water use, particularly where ultra pure water is needed, (such as in make-up water for boilers). A total of 41 desalination units are currently in operation, including 25 for municipal water supply and 16 in self-supplied enterprises. The main issues with regard to desalination, at present, are high cost and energy consumption.

5.7 Non Structural Measures Non-structural measures aim to mitigate drought losses through the use of policies, regulation, technology, drought management, regulations and policies, drought relief planning, preparedness schemes for drought relief, data collection and management, construction of drought relief facilities, drought relief service organizations, relief funds and material support, emergency water supply controls, research and new technical extension, and so forth.

There are many agencies involved in drought that complicate non structural activities- Table 1 demonstrates the complexity of the existing systems.

Table 1 Role and Responsibilities of the Flood Control and Drought Relief Office and the Associated Agencies

Agency Major Roles and Responsibilities

Flood Control and Carry out state guidelines, policy and regulations in relation to drought relief; Drought Relief Office organize prepare and implement preparedness scheme for drought relief; collect data on the latest rainfall, water, drought, disaster and meteorological situations; understand short-term and long-term analysis of water and meteorology; organize drought relief supervision; responsible for storage and management of drought relief materials; drought relief fund planning; collection of data on drought disaster conditions; develop and manage drought communication and warning system; carry out drought relief education and training; promote advanced techniques and new products.

Propaganda Agency Responsible for guidance of drought relief communications; timely coordinating of press releases, media news reporting by associated agencies.

Development and Provide guidance to drought relief planning and development; responsible Reform Commission for risk mitigation and strengthening of drought relief facilities and important engineering; coordination and supervision of drought relief plan.

Public Security Agency Maintain social order; crack down on criminal activities according to the laws, such as spreading rumours, theft of drought relief materials, deliberate destruction of drought relief facilities; assist relevant departments in properly dealing with mass security events triggered by drought relief; assist in organizing safe evacuation of the population from dangerous areas.

Civil Affairs Agency Organize and coordinate drought disaster relief; provide the latest disaster information to headquarters; organize and coordinate the rescue of rescuers and victims; manage and supervise disaster relief materials and fund; organize and distribute donations.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 28 Finance Agency Responsible for drought relief fund budget, allocation and supervision.

Land and Resources Organize monitoring and prevent geologic disaster. Agency

Construction Agency Assist in the guidance of urban drought relief planning works

Railway Agency Organize the transportation of personnel, materials and equipments.

Communication Assist local agencies in charge of communication to organize the Agency transportation of personnel, materials and equipments.

Industry and Responsible for drought relief communication works, and regulation of Information Technology emergency communication facilities when necessary. Agency

Water Resources Responsible for organization, coordination, supervision and guidance of Agency daily drought relief works; management of drought relief projects; Organize and direct construction and management of drought relief projects; supervision and management of drought situation and safety of drought relief projects.

Agricultural Agency Collect, analyse, and report agricultural drought and disaster conditions in a timely manner; provide guidance in agricultural drought relief, disaster relief and production recovery; advise on adjustments to crops, water saving techniques and prevention of endemic diseases among livestock; responsible for special subsidy fund allocation and management; responsible for reservation, allocation and management of emergency seed, forage grass, and animal epidemic prevention materials.

Commerce Agency Strengthen the monitoring and supervision of market, supply and demand of important goods; coordinating the organization and supply of drought relief materials and post-diaster construction materials.

Sanitation and Responsible for disease prevention and medical rescue; reporting epdemic Quarantine Agency conditions and prevention information to the headquarters; organize local health department and medical personnel to carry out disease prevention and treatment, and control of occurrence and spread of the epidemic.

Civil Aviation Agency Responsible for the transport of drought relief personnel, medical personnel, materials and equipments; providing necessary emergency air transport and people in emergency.

Radio &TV Broadcast Responsible for timely and accurate directing of communications about Agency drought on TV and radio at all levels; reporting drought situation, disaster situation and drought relief works that are appvoved by the headquarters.

Administration Agency Supervision and instruction regarding safe production during flood periods; of Work Safety enhancing the supervision and examination of hydropower stations, mines, tailing dams and other important structures during flooding.

Meteorological Agency Responsible for monitoring and forecasting of weather; analysis and

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 29 forecasting of drought conditions; issuing updated forecasts of important weather and disaster events; providing meteorological information to the flood control and drought relief headquarters and related agencies.

Army, armed police Responsible for participating in the rescue and relief work of major and people’s armed structures and emergencies; assisting the local public security agency to forces department maintain order and social security in disaster areas; assisting the local government to the masses in the dangerous areas.

Since the 1990s, the Office of Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters has developed a series of systems related to drought management. These systems include: drought analysis and reporting , drought consulting drought declaration, drought summary and disaster checklist.

In addition, a series of regulations have been released by the State Council, State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters, Ministry of Water Resources, Ministry of Finance, and the Meteorological Bureau. These include Method for the Management of Compensation Fund for Exceptional Large Flood Control and Drought Relief, Proposed Method for Development and Management of Drought Relief Service Organization, Flood and Drought Disaster Analysis and Reporting System, State Flood Control and Drought Relief Contingency Plan, Drawing-up Outlines of Drought Relief Contingency Plan, Drought Classification Standards, Meteorological Drought Grade, and Technical Standard for Soil Moisture Monitoring.

In recent years, there has been substantial progress in local drought relief regulations. Even before the release of the Drought Relief Regulations, the provinces of Anhui, Zhejiang Province, and Yunnan and Tianjin City, and Chongqing already had developed some related regulations.

5.7.1 Drought Relief Plan

Beginning in 2008, China has initiated a comprehensive exercise to fully implement the Notice of the State Council on Strengthening Drought Relief Work (No. 68ǒ2007ǓGeneral Office of the State Council), and the requirements of the Drought Relief Regulations.. Drought relief plans at the provincial level are expected to be complete and compiled by MWR by the end of 2009. The drought relief plan focuses on the planning of drought relief water supply projects and systems related to monitoring and forecasting, water allocation and regulation, management and other aspects.

5.7.2 Preparedness Approach to Drought Relief

Since 2004, the State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters Office has designated four provinces, including Heilongjiang, Shaanxi, Anhui, and Fujian, and five cities, including Tianjin, Liaoyuan, Rizhao, Qinhuangdao, and Zhoushan, as the key locations of preparation of drought contingency plans, a strong impetus to the development of drought plans.

In January 2006, China issued the “State Flood Control and Drought Contingency Plans”, a programmatic basis to guide disaster prevention and emergency response to sudden floods and unanticipated drought across the country. In the same year, the Office of State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters issued “The Outline for the Preparation of Drought Plan”, and other guidance documents applicable to the whole country. This started the full-scale preparation of drought plans. At present, there are 26 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) and the Xinjiang Corps that have completed the provincial-level overall plan for the preparation of drought, of which 19 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) has made their overall drought plans got approved by the local government. The seven river basin agencies except Song Liaowei have started to develop

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 30 the drought contingency plan for their regions. “The Drought Contingency Plans of the Yellow River Basin (for Trial)” by the Yellow River Drought Control Headquarters Office has been formally issued. The Cross-Basin Water Diversion Program of the Pearl River, the Taihu Lake, the Huaihe River, the Tuo River of Sichuan, and the Jialing River is also under preparation.

What remains to be considered is how to implement the drought plans and apply them to practical real conditions. This requires the provision of greater guidance in drought plan implementation.

5.7.3 Data Collection and Management

China's drought data collection and management system is somewhat less advanced than the one it has for flood control. However, significant progress has been made as a result of the great importance attached by the State and the Ministry of Water Resources. In 2004 and 2009 the State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters Office issued and amended the "Flood and Drought Disaster Statistical Reporting System. Over the years, China has established a basic statistical reporting system for flood and drought disasters. This includes the design of the Flood Control and Drought Relief Command System which, first considered in 1995, has provided useful results. As of 2009, the first phase of the project has been basically completed, and the information monitoring system has been developed in five pilot provinces.

5.7.4 Drought Relief Service Organizations

Drought relief service organizations are an integral part of irrigation services as well as a component of the agricultural social service system. Drought relief service organizations are centred on drought relief. Their purpose is to serve the public interest and economic objectives, on the one hand reducing the impacts of drought and, on the other, stabilizing and increasing output. The establishment of drought relief organizations has encouraged reform in the use and management of drought-relief funds. It is now possible to invest and concentrate drought relief funds in fixed assets rather than disbursing them in a way that dilutes their effect. This provides the basis for an effective long-term drought relief capacity.

Issues that still need to be resolved, according to the SFCDRH, with regard to the drought relief teams include capacity-building for all teams; particular focus on the strengthening of weaker teams; and improving the ability of the teams to be self-sustaining.

5.7.5 Drought Relief Funds

The main sources of drought relief funds consist of financial subsidies from the central and local government, bank loans and self-generated funds. Of these government financial subsidies at all levels account for payment of 15 to 20 percent of the actual expenses incurred, and the remaining amount (over 80%) is obtained from bank loans or is self-generated.

Despite these increases in budgetary allocations, there is no established budgetary mechanism to ensure that adequate funds will be available to protect new, long term social and economic development. In order to prevent and mitigate the adverse impacts of drought in the future, local governments should establish a capital investment budget for drought mitigation that is compatible with changes in economic and social development.

5.7.6 Drought Relief Materials

At present, the major drought relief materials include oil, electricity, and other materials and equipment. These have played an important role in the drought relief.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 31 There is, however, no established reserve system or preferential policies for the use of these materials for drought impact mitigation. In drought-prone areas, a drought material reserve system should be established and/or improved. This system should divide materials by financial and management categories and graded reserves so that the materials can be properly stored and managed and ready for use when needed.

5.7.7 Emergency Water Allocation Control for Drought Relief

The management of scarce water resources requires the allocation and transmission of a given quantity of water. Generally this can be accomplished, through conventional means, without too great a disparity between the water that can be supplied and need to meet industrial, urban domestic and agricultural water demand. However, when the reduction in hydrologic runoff is extreme, the potential for disaster as a result of drought is high. In such situations, China relies on drought water transfers. These transfers occur from areas with relatively abundant water resources to areas with extraordinary shortages in adjacent areas or river basins. Their purpose is to provide adequate urban and rural water supplies for domestic, industrial and ecological needs.

5.7.8 Study and New Technology Extension

With the increasing severity of drought in China, the government has placed more and more importance on basic research and agricultural water-saving technologies. It also is gradually increasing financial support for research projects to enhance the promotion of agricultural saving technologies for drought mitigation. These efforts, to date, have been relatively weak and needs further attention and emphasis.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 32 6. International Approaches to Drought Management

6.1 Trend towards Risk Management The general trend in drought management internationally has been to move to a risk management approach based on a sophisticated early warning system and risk assessment mechanism that covers large areas and then a variety of measures to manage water demand, conserve water and minimise or mitigate impacts depending on the needs and specifics of different situations. These measures can include compensation for crop/livestock losses or income support, provision of services to support affected people, water pricing and demand reduction strategies increased use of waste and treated water and improved planning starting on a regional scale to ensure development is matched to available resources. This is a change from the disaster and emergency response to drought because these responses were seen as reacting too late and not developing resilience in the systems to cope better with what will inevitably occur again in the future.

One of the problems of a disaster management approach is that this approach tends to ignore the recurring and long term perspective of drought as something that will happen again that is not readily predictable and tends to focus on the human impact of drought, i.e. the need to do something to address the impact of drought on the community with less emphasis on mitigation and planning for the inevitable event recurring again. The implication is that drought is an administrative problem to be dealt with at the time, even though drought is not particularly definable as a people/environment interface and the start and end is difficult to pinpoint.

The counter view is that drought will occur again and that it is better to be well prepared and address issues as early as possible to conserve as much water as possible and mitigate the impacts in case the drought develops into a very severe prolonged event. This is risk management and mitigation rather than disaster response although disaster relief is a part of the longer term risk management plan. DRR attempts to cover both of these although does not mention longer multi-year drought, instead it talks about severity of drought as part of an emergency. Mitigation and planning are very important under these circumstances.

6.1.1 Australia

In Australia, the major change in drought policy was the movement from disaster relief to increased self reliance and risk management because it was recognised that drought is a feature of the Australia environment that recurs regularly and can be very widespread. Some parts of eastern Australia are entering the 8th year of drought in 2009 that has had major impacts on agriculture, the environment and communities as well as the economy despite the small population size compared to other nations of similar size. To cope with these situations, it is necessary to assume that drought will occur and that the risk should be managed as much as possible though mitigation and preparedness. The reality of extensive drought has not made policy implementation easier because of the emotion involved with the impact of drought and it becomes increasingly difficult to manage and mitigate the impacts over an extended period. Hence understanding the reality of drought, drought occurrence and drought impacts locally, regionally and nationally are vital to a risk management strategy.

The approach of self reliance and risk management based on objective science driven decision making has been mixed with the concept of “exceptional circumstance” that implies the drought situation is beyond the normal coping ability of planning and mitigation, adding a political, emotional and social element that has been difficult to define and administer (White et al, 2005). Australia’s National Drought Policy came into effect in 1993 following a period of multiyear dry periods that

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 33 developed into an ongoing drought (Wilhite, Botterill and Monnik, 2005). The policy was reviewed and reinterpreted several times to try to clearly define different aspects of drought and how to interpret and implement exceptional circumstances for compensation or support for different groups, mostly farmers and rural communities. Although the basic tenet of the approach is supported and remains sound, there are still debate about the preparation for drought, the methods and mechanisms for drought declaration (with geographical and administrative boundary issues), drought definitions with appropriate levels of government support. The process started with change in philosophy and is still working towards well accepted and adequate responses to drought in a country that has experienced increasing frequency and intensity of drought in the last 50 years.

6.1.2 The Republic of South Africa

Environment and has also moved towards risk management with a greater emphasis on tools for monitoring and assessing drought and providing information to farmers and water users. Policy changes have encouraged greater self reliance in the agricultural whilst trying to maintain a safety net for those with limited means to mitigate drought impacts themselves (many small farmers are entirely rain dependant with little mitigation mechanisms available). As population increases in RSA, drought will impact much more severely on urban and small farmers for the same reasons as elsewhere and will result in creasing pressure on water resources. Drought policy will have to move further towards a wider application than the original strategies aimed largely at extensive grazing and larger scale farming.

6.1.3 The United States of America

In the Unites States of America (USA), there is no national water or drought plan. Individual states have driven the drought agenda because states (not the national government) are owners of water within their borders and they, and local jurisdictions, have primary responsibility for water management. Many states have developed drought plans. The aim of drought plans is to improve the effectiveness of preparedness and response efforts by enhancing monitoring and early warning, risk and impact assessment, and mitigation and response. The State of California recently has refined the state drought planning process and has introduced some regulations that apply to local water agency planning, including water supply and land use planning, dry year reliability plans and water saving in urban communities and within agriculture. At the national level, progress has been slower although technological developments have continued to provide tools for monitoring and assessing drought through remote sensing in the USA and elsewhere. Improved coordination and cooperation, mitigation preparedness and better information flows are all helpful but do not address drought impacts unless states have an implementation strategy that also copes with multiyear droughts and water conservation mechanisms that improves efficiency of use on the ground.

A consistent theme in the USA state and national approach has been development of early warning systems to provide better information to water users and water utilities about current and likely future situations. These are site specific because different areas have different water sources and use patterns. An example is the upstream of the river system that has snow, rainfall and soil moisture as well as groundwater for agricultural and urban use. Reservoir storage potential carry over storage, snow pack from the previous winter (when this melts it feeds into the river/storage), the rainfall received and expected and for agriculture the soil moisture reserve for cropping or pasture. Groundwater is the back up, depending on recharge potential. Understanding this and matching to demand whilst considering the longer term needs in case rainfall is lower will give guide to how much water can be used in the current season whilst conserving supplies for the next season. Early warning is crucial in developing these mechanisms based on remote sensing, on ground monitoring, modelling

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 34 and experience. This must be linked to a clear plan of action to conserve water through increased efficiency of use at all times. This is risk management rather than disaster response.

6.1.4 Spain

In Europe, Spain is a relatively dry country with a Mediterranean climate. Spain was also a major agricultural water user with significant cross border water transfers to Portugal. Agriculture is the biggest user of water although the figure is relatively fixed by availability of water hence increases can only come from efficiency gains, not from increasing supply. Spain, as part of the EU also has wider agriculture, environment and social issues to consider. During the 1990 to 1995 drought, serious water shortages occurred and infrastructure shortcomings were identified. As with agriculture, increasing supply for urban areas is also not possible hence increasing efficiency and water savings are essential to meet increasing population balance demand (Prieto 2005).

In response to the above, Spain moved to a risk management approach that has an early warning system based on catchments and river basins with hydrologic indicators. From this, indicators of drought severity can be made and responses can be implemented as early as possible to address demand efficiently whilst conserving supplies. It is difficult to predict drought in many ways but risk management strategies try to assess as many factors as possible and give early warning to conserve supply in case the situation continues to deteriorate and develops into a prolonged drought. Of prime importance in this approach is the need for water demand management, a major lesson learned from the 1991 to 1995 drought in Spain (Llamas, 2000).

Historically, providing emergency responses to drought through drought relief measures has done little to improve preparedness or reduce vulnerability in drought prone areas and may have increased dependence on government support. Drought management must be more proactive in mitigation and increasing efficiency of water use where major gains are possible with the least cost instead of further structural efforts with limited returns. In China, current measures combine preparedness with emergency relief although these need to be tailored to specific areas and have a sound hydrologic basis. As drought planning improves and is tested by actual events, plans can be refined and the shortcomings of existing measures evaluated and improved.

6.2 Risk Management and Climate Change Impacts An added stimulus for moving towards risk management has been the emergence of possible climate change impacts on the current water supplies and weather patterns. Internationally, addressing climate change has become a major issue as water supplies are impactedfrom changing weather patterns.Although much more research is needed to build climate change into risk management plans in China as elsewhere, this process must be started as soon as possible. In northern China, there has been a recorded drop in rainfall, pronounces since the 1980’s. Whether this is from climate change per se or a cyclic change in long term precipitation can be debated but, the impact is occurring now. Similarly, the glaciers in the Himalaya are melting quickly; this has to be a factor for risk assessment on long term water supplies.

Climate change that leads to changed weather patterns, especially declining precipitation and changes in the distribution of precipitation throughout the year are critical to drought and water scarcity. Much of the drought in China talks about shortfalls of a few months of rainfall during critical spring and summer planing and plant growth periods. A change in seasonality by weeks and months will have a major impact on agricultural production. It is important to reduce the risks of climate change by accounting for impacts on future water supplies in water planning and drought risk management. In a declining rainfall climate, even small changes can have significant impacts on run-off and storage

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 35 potential. China is particularly vulnerable to declining run-off for electricity generation, irrigation water and urban water supplies in the north.

The development of a sound information base and the integration of models into a tested monitoring and prediction of impacts system are essential to address climate change and manage water supplies. Climate change will have a major impact on water supplies in China and elsewhere. It is very important to be prepared because vulnerability and hazard are dynamic variables in a climate change situation (Downing and Bakker, 2000). As the frequency, duration and severity of change, the need to be prepared in advance becomes paramount through early warning and sound information and modelling base. This needs to be incorporated in the models for drought monitoring and early warning systems and into scenario analysis for risk mapping. As mentioned earlier. Chinese institutions that are already undertaking some of this work need to be consulted and brought into the process of developing models and tools. Cooperation is needed to access data and integrate these efforts in wider drought and water management issues.

6.3 Recommendations from the International workshop The International Workshop is reported in detail in the Mid-term Report in Chapter 9. Speakers represented the California Water Department, The Bureau of Rural Sciences (Australia) Spain and the EU (by proxy), SFCDRH, MWR, The Yellow River Conservancy Commission and Liaoning Province. The general outcomes from the workshop are given below: x Broadly based national and regional level early warning and monitoring systems based on a variety of data sources (including remote sensing, meteorological, hydrological and real time on ground sensors) to support decision making about drought event and water scarcity and to provide warnings, monitor and evaluate drought and water scarcity. This includes an understanding of and monitoring of ground water use for all purposes. x Drought Mitigation Plans with a risk management approach that work across boundaries/jurisdictions and can be applied from local to regional level when needed to address water shortages and drought that cover a multi year time frame in case of multi year drought. These are based on sound scientific information bases and a risk management approach that may include compensation mechanisms and emergency provisions. x Community and water user participation in planning so water users have some interest in and ownership of the problems and solutions so drought mitigation is supported. x Mechanisms to encourage and sometimes force water conservation across all water users including water pricing, water metering, installation of water efficient equipment on farms, industry and domestic users, education programs. x Active water savings and water gains from recycling and reusing waste water and water harvesting for ground water recharge, local use in household tanks, industrial processes that minimise water use and innovative water use mechanism that foster conservation such as changing the nature of vegetation in parks. x A recognition of the need to maintain ecological flows and the importance of the environment in maintaining and supporting water supplies, supporting recovery from drought and the overall value to societies of a healthy environment that is resilient in the face of drought and climate change. x Need for a very thorough understanding of the integrated water resources for decision making and planning.Bulleted text Whilst there is a strong need to support emergency responses and the existing system in the short term, there is a very strong need to investigate alternatives to improve effectiveness of the existing

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 36 system in the longer term There is a need to raise the profile and important of drought as an issue; support better scientific means to assess and analyse drought; look for alternative funding mechanisms such as crop insurance; raise public awareness of the need to conserve water and the importance of drought and undertake research to support.

6.4 Conclusion and Recommendation for Improved Approach to Drought Management in China The adoption of risk management internationally developed from the recognition the emergency responses did not develop resilience and self reliance in the communities in drought affected areas. Risk management became more viable as the technology to risk assessment became more sophisticated with early warning and meteorological prediction supporting better decision making. This allowed for earlier interventions to support communities before the drought developed into an emergency. Monitoring allows recovery to be better supported and the lessons from the drought can be incorporated in future planning and actions. This is circular process that in forms itself for better preparation in the future. Develop of the approach takes time and is an iterative process that must be tested and proven for the national regional and local relevance within an administrative and geophysical context.

The emergency response in China has to wait until an emergency is declared before resources can be directed at addressing the problems. This results in a significant time delay and increasing severity of impacts. The existing approach only addresses part of full outline shown above and this does not support better outcomes in the long run because it cannot learn effectively from previous droughts. China lacks a comprehensive early warning and risk assessment method and system for drought, a key part of the risk management approaches used internationally that support learning process. Risk assessment is a self informing process that matches good science with experience to learn from previous droughts and better address mitigation efforts in the future.

China needs to adopt this approach for drought to manage the risk of serious drought in the future given the impact of climate change and existing water scarcity issues. China will experience more droughts as the drought in the South West of 2009/10 indicates so a proactive approach is needed, based on a risk management approach that is used successfully internationally.

6.5 General Framework for Drought Risk Management in China Countries have different approaches to risk management for drought, depending on their own context. On the one hand, the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) risk framework has been developed for less developed countries that lack basic services and management ability that is already in place in China. On the other hand, the outline presented below recognises that China has in place a substantial institutional system for emergency response, forward planning and infrastructure to deal with drought and has the technical capability for risk management within existing institutional and regulatory structures. However, significant changes are needed to adapt risk management approaches within the existing systems.

The key elements and outcomes of a risk management approach include the following: x Early Monitoring and Forecasting x Risk Assessment x Risk Mitigation x Demand Management x Drought Supply Enhancement

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 37 x Impact Mitigation and Emergency Responses x Recovery, Evaluation and Contingency Planning x Stakeholder Participation and Public Education and Awareness This recognises the iterative approach to the introduction of a risk management strategy and allows time to build the system and mechanisms needed to change the existing thinking and institutional context.

This approach demonstrates the importance of each element, the critical linkages between them, and how they function for a risk management approach to drought. In developing and implementing a risk management approach, each step taken will be carefully refined and modified based on Chinese and specific local conditions.

Some of the tasks required to complete all or some of these elements involve: x Training in Conceptual Approach x Organization and Institutional Development x Coordination Mechanisms between Ministries, Sectors and Jurisdictions x Data Collection and Analysis x Design of Methodological Approaches and Models x Research, Monitoring and Evaluation, Dissemination of Results x Development of Targeted Assistance Programs x Stakeholder Outreach and consultation x Financing for Research and Local Projects

6.6 The Case for Demand Management within a Risk Management Framework

6.6.1 Introduction

Risk management is a multi faceted approach to drought management that encompasses emergency responses but operates within a broader drought and water management context. Risk management starts with early warning of impending drought and monitors the situation to provide advice as early as possible to water suppliers and groups of consumers\ regarding problems. At the same time, water demand management plays a key role in regulating the allocation of water supply to each user group to conserve the water supply and limit impacts over time. This mechanism has to be in place before the drought becomes a problem and must be related to current and changing conditions such as levels of reservoirs, stream flows and soil moisture levels. Within this context demand management provides a mechanism to conserve and allocate the available water through limitations on water use enabling water managers to conserve supplies and spread these over an extended period.

However, over time demand management should be a constant part of water management and a water saving society because, in parts of China, water is a limited resource and conserving water is an ever present need. On-going user education programs that include the importance of water savings and improved water use efficiency are a necessary part of demand management. Increasing supply has a considerable capital cost and in many cases, from an economic perspective, it is cheaper to manage demand and save water than try to continually increase supply. Demand management includes continual education for water savings, and incentives to use less water in domestic, commercial, industrial and agricultural situations. In other word, continually striving to reduce demand

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 38 and match it to limited supply. Also important for drought management is to diversify the sources of water supply to increase the system’s resilency. This can be accomplished through non-traditional supplies such as recycling of waste water to useable standards, and water banking for drought use,

In a drought situation, particularly a prolonged multi year drought, increasing supply is generally not an option for large scale use. Increasing the use of ground water may be important locally but may not be practical everywhere. Conserving the existing supply is the key to survival.

6.6.2 The Drought in Australia and the Impact of Demand Management

Most of Eastern and Southern Australia is just coming out of a prolonged drought where rainfall was lower than average for around 10 years and extremely low for three of those years. This severely reduced stream flows and inflows into reservoirs that supply water to the main cities of Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide and Canberra as well as many smaller cities and towns. Loss of supply became a critical factor during the prolonged drought because inflows were minimal hence limiting water use by all users was the key to make supplies go further.

The experience in Victoria, Australia was that without demand management, the Melbourne metropolitan area with 5 plus million people would have run out of water. Inflows started to decline in 1997; 2006 was a record low inflow and the inflows did not increase until early 2010. Temperatures were also in a rising trend during this time, exacerbating the problem. Melbourne could not divert water from elsewhere, it had to reduce water use through demand management to survive.

Victoria has a state wide water management approach that encourages water conservation and requires demand management as part of the risk management framework for coping with drought. This is a multi level approach starting with the state level policy guidance and plans, the regional plans for sustainability, water supply and demand strategy and drought response plans. In response to drought, the assumption is that the drought may last up to ten years.

At the state (provincial) level Victoria has the following structure-

Agency and Responsibility Policy and Plan

Victorian State Government

Our Water Our Future- State Water Supply State Water policy

Regional Sustainability -Water supply across 50 Year Long Term Plan for water supply 4 regions of state

Water Supply Agencies across state

Water Corporations/Suppliers - Water Supply Strategy for the 4 regions in the State

Water Supply Corporations – 50 Year Long Term Plan for water supply for each corporation in each region Water Supply and Demand

Water Corporations Water shortage short term plan- 5 to 10 year timeframe to maintain supply Drought Response Plans

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 39 6.6.3 Drought Response Plans - Compulsory Demand Management

The drought response plans include the conditions for demand management and triggers that start compulsory water use restrictions across all user. In the case of Melbourne water supply, the level in reservoirs is a key factor supported by three and six month seasonal weather forecasts issued by the Bureau of Meteorology on a monthly basis. This information along with river flows, reservoir status and water demand is used for simulations and modelling of the seasonal impact on water supply. A weekly Water Storage Report is prepared for interested agencies and individuals.

Storage levels are monitored against the Early Warning, Voluntary Reduction and Restriction Rule Curves. All water users are metered to monitor use.

An early warning trigger is intended to provide at least 6 months notice of the need for restriction under drought demand and reduced inflow conditions.

Voluntary Restrictions call for users to reduce water usage.

Mandatory Restrictions on users and have four stages – mild in stage 1 to severe in stage 4. Each stage of restriction is accompanied by a set of allowed and not allowed water use practices. Restrictions form part of the permanent water saving rules for the State.

A key part of the drought response planning process is to evaluate the impact of drought and work through the effects of actions taken. Some actions will work well others may not and one action may not be appropriate in different areas or with different user. However, this process allows plans to be improved and improves resilience in the system.

While the above is a direct response to drought and a mandatory restriction on use to manage demand for water, this is accompanied by an ongoing set of activities to manage demand and reduce use over time. These include education for users, pricing, mandatory industrial water plans and recycling/reuse on site and innovations across all areas to reduce use and demand. An example of innovations include changes in the way water is used in air conditioning cooling towers that saves 80% of the water compared to previous levels. Industrial users must have a water use plan that demonstrates savings and reuse/recycling of water to reduce the demand for fresh input. Systems loses have been reduced to around 5%. Ways are continually sort to reduce the need for new supplies by reducing demand and saving water and targets are set for water saving through demand management.

Figure 4 Annual Inflows into Melbourne’s Major Harvesting Reservoirs

Annual Inflow to Melbourne's Major Harvesting Reservoirs (Thomson, Upper Yarra, O'Shannassy and Maroondah Reservoirs) 1400 Average Inflow 1913-1996 615 GL/yr 1200

1000 Average Inflow 1997-2008 377 GL/yr 800

600

Inflow to Storage (GL) Storage to Inflow 400

200 Extreme Low Inflow 2006: 163 GL 0 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 Year

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 40 The above graph shows the impact of prolonged drought on inflows into Melbourne’s main reservoirs. All years from 1997 to 2009 were below the long term Average with 2006 a record low inflow year (source; Gan, Kein 2010; Yarra Valley Water).

6.6.4 The Impact of Demand Management

In 2000 the daily consumption per person in Melbourne was 408 litres per day. At this point, it was obvious that current water use was not sustainable going forward with the declining inflows into reservoirs. Through continued demand management, this has been reduced to 155 litres per person per day in 2010 and is targeted to be further reduced. The government set targets have been exceeded by the users.

Without water demand management Melbourne’s 5 plus million people would have been without water altogether in late 2006 and into 2007/8 because of the drought. It is difficult to imagine the second largest city in Australia without any water and those people having to find water elsewhere in Australia. Sydney and Brisbane were also seriously short of water as were many smaller cities and towns. Australia does not the option of water transfers and the drought was widespread and severe over a wide area.

Demand management in Melbourne saved 42 billion litres of water in 2009 alone, that’s water that did not need to be found elsewhere and was retained in the reservoir. Although money was spent on demand management and water savings, it was much less than trying the find new supply. Before the drought and reduced inflows, Melbourne was thought to have five years water in reservoirs. Through demand management, Melbourne survived the worst drought on record with every household still having the minimum requirement of water. Demand management was crucial in period of sustained declining inflows followed by severe drought.

Figure 5 Impact of Demand Management through Restrictions on Use by Compulsory Water Restrictions on Reservoir Levels

SYSTEM STORAGE VS RESTRICTION RULE CURVES UPDATED TO 6 DECEMBER 2010

STORAGE 8AM TODAY : 949.2 GL (52.4 %) 1300 STORAGE LAST WEEK : 940.0 GL (51.9 %) STORAGE LAST YEAR : 686.8 GL (37.9 %)

1200

1100 EARLY WARNING

1000

900 VOLUNTARY REDUCTIONS

800 STAGE 1 RESTRICTIONS SYSTEM STORAGE (GL) STAGE 2 700 RESTRICTIONS

STAGE 3 600 RESTRICTIONS

STAGE 4 500 RESTRICTIONS

400 Jul-00 Jul-05 Jul-07 Jul-09 Apr-00 Apr-02 Apr-07 Apr-09 Apr-11 Jan-00 Jun-01 Jan-02 Jun-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Oct-05 Jun-08 Jun-10 Jan-11 Feb-01 Mar-03 Mar-05 Feb-06 Feb-08 Feb-10 Sep-01 Aug-02 Aug-04 Dec-04 Sep-06 Dec-06 Sep-08 Dec-08 Sep-10 Nov-00 Nov-02 Nov-07 Nov-09 May-04 May-06 1. All data is for 24 hours to 8am on the date Storage Level 2. Tarago Reservoir reconnected to Total System Storage on 24/06/2009 3. Devil Bend Reservoir removed from Total System Storage on 1/06/01

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 41 Note: Early warnings and voluntary restrictions followed by mandatory restrictions helped maintain storage during periods of very low inflows (source; Gan, Kein 2010; Yarra Valley Water). Figure 6 Consumption in Litres Per Day as A result of Demand Management

Note: Actual household consumption is now down to 155 litres per day (source; Gan, Kein 2010; Yarra Valley Water).

Figure 7 Melbourne Water Storage 2000 to 2010

Note:Melbourne would have run out of water after December 2008 without demand management as a result o reduced inflows and excess demand (source; Melbourne Water, 2010).

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 42 Figure 8 Actual Water Use Against Targets for 2009/2010

Target 155 Melbourne Weekly Performance 155 lcd Actual Campaign Avg Max Temp Same mth year before

220 120.0

200 100.0

180 80.0

160 60.0 Degrees Celsius

Melbourne Usage l/c/d 140 40.0

120 20.0

100 0.0 5/11/09 3/12/09 8/04/10 6/05/10 3/06/10 1/07/10 9/09/10 7/10/10 4/11/10 19/11/09 17/12/09 31/12/09 14/01/10 28/01/10 11/02/10 25/02/10 11/03/10 25/03/10 22/04/10 20/05/10 17/06/10 15/07/10 29/07/10 12/08/10 26/08/10 23/09/10 21/10/10 18/11/10

Week ending

Note: actual consumption still fluctuates in relation to temperature and season but the overall use is significantly reduced from 2000 and continues to decline as a result of active demand management (source; Gan, Kein 2010; Yarra Valley Water).

In summary, in the period from 1997 to 2009, Melbourne faced declining inflows into it reservoirs with severe drought for at least 3 years from 2006 to 2008. Melbourne was not able to transfer water from elsewhere or substitute groundwater for surface storage. Melbourne’s population continued to grow during this period, contributing to increasing demand. Instituting compulsory demand management, through compulsory restrictions on water use for all users coupled with incentives, education, pricing, reuse and recycling allowed Melbourne to cope with an extended drought that was the most severe on record. Household use was reduced from 408 litres per day in 2000 to 155 litres per day in 2010. South Eastern Australia is predicted to become drier with climate change. In the Melbourne catchment rainfall and hence inflows have been declining for 30 years whilst temperature has trending upwards during the same period. Water demand management supported by innovations in water use and water savings is necessary for Melbourne to maintain supply into the future.

Demand Management is a key part of a risk management strategy. Demand management relies on early warnings and a sound information base to make predictions on available supply. Implementation of restrictions and continued water saving and water use efficiency is an ongoing part of demand management within a risk management framework.

6.7 Proposed Drought Risk Management Approach for China based on Chinese and International Experienc Effective drought risk management requires an integrated combination of measures related to prevention, mitigation, and preparedness for responses. These measures allow the government to

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 43 anticipate, respond to, and help areas recover from the impact of drought conditions. The sections below describe the main components to support a Drought Risk Management Framework.

6.7.1 Characteristics and Stages of Risk Management

Approach - Drought risk management begins with taking steps ahead of time to reduce and mitigate drought impacts. These steps cover all phases that occur: before, during and after a drought. The main components are described below.

Drought Early Monitoring and Forecasting –

Reliable scientific early forecasting and drought warning system is critical to taking actions that will reduce drought-induced impacts. A monitoring system of drought indicators will provide an early warning of emerging drought conditions months in advance of the normal dry season. These data and the warnings on projected dry conditions then should be provided to decision makers, stakeholders, such as large water suppliers and the public. Monitoring should begin at the onset of the normal wet season and announcements should be made on a monthly basis.

Early Warning allows water suppliers to advise of projected water shortfalls in allocations to different sectors and implement drought contingency plans including water savings and rationing. The more water that is saved in advance of drought, the more that will remain in storage to be used later or by others who have greater need. Urban and industrial users will understand that they need to reduce household use and improve efficiency per unit of production. Farmers will have time to make decisions about the purchase of seeds, how much to plant or a change in crops. Livestock owners may decide to reduce their herds. Technical advice can be offered to all of these groups on how to best reduce their vulnerability.

At present in China, the view appears to be that forecasts are unreliable or too late to make a difference. There is concern that an unreliable prediction will harm the credibility of future forecasts. There is also concern that a dry year forecast will cause people to consume more rather than less once the forecast is made. To alter this perception, the following steps are needed: x Preparedness and Planning - Alter the current pattern of responses to drought. At present these warnings are viewed as “too late to do anything” because rains have already failed, water is already scarce and doing something largely refers to structural measures that take too long to implement. Crops may already have been planted. A change to risk management requires making preparedness plans and taking steps in water conservation in advance of the actual drought so that water can be stored and usage reduced to extend the value of existing sources throughout the drought. x Forecasting - Improve the reliability of drought criteria, data collection, monitoring and analysis, and the quality of forecasting and modelling. The criteria should be based on type of water source and watershed. For example, an area that gets all its water from its local watershed as surface water runoff would use precipitation indicators. Other river basins may be affected by the level and water content of snow pack, surface water runoff to upstream reservoirs, local precipitation and allocations of water diverted from other systems. x Climate Change – The results from models for climate change should be incorporated into the forecasting for drought using several different climate change scenarios.• x Monitoring - Beginning 3 to 6 months in advance of the dry season, monitoring must be systematically updated to agencies and the public on a monthly basis so that water suppliers, industry and households have an opportunity to adjust and make decisions.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 44 x Training - Make forecasts available for major river systems and smaller watersheds. Train local officials in small watershed in establishing local criteria for monitoring and forecasting systems based on local conditions. x Early Warning System and Public Education- Convert the forecasts into a systematic early warning system focusing on the education of agencies and stakeholders on the meaning, usefulness and appropriate early implementation of contingency responses to warnings. x Use drought forecasting results as an input to Drought Risk Assessment.

6.7.2 Risk Assessment Methodology/Model

Any response to drought must determine when conditions warrant a government response. A drought forecasting system (above) provides a meteorological and hydrological warning of dry conditions to different groups of stakeholders, from water suppliers to individual consumers, so that they can introduce a decrease in water supply into their decision making.

Results of Risk Assessment Method - When drought forecasting is incorporated into a risk assessment methodology, the result is a tool for officials to identify potential damage and economic losses by area and sector based on the level of risk due to hazard, exposure and vulnerability. As a result, priorities can be set for government focus, action and assistance. These priorities should be reflected in the warning system, advance mitigation efforts, drought relief plans and services, and eventual compensation

Model Inputs and Results – Because drought is an area-specific phenomenon, the risk assessment model combines water conditions and water sources with land use information to identify who or what could be affected. For example, for urban domestic use, the population is included; for agriculture, the type of crops grown and soil conditions are included; for industrial use, the type of production and output are utilized. The result is a risk assessment map showing different types and degrees of impact. The quality of the results depends on the specificity and quality of the information provided. As information improves or conditions changes, these changes are incorporated to reflect them. Climate change scenarios should incorporate consideration of the most vulnerable hot spots for impacts on water supply.

Additional Benefits of a Risk Assessment Model - Different scenarios can be modelled. This may allow a comparison of conditions with and without the drought so that compensation for losses is defined spatially by drought conditions, and not other, unrelated, conditions. Scenarios can be tested in advance for contingency planning for projected impacts of continuing drought and different rainfall patterns.

Frequently, in drought years, unless restricted, water supply system and groundwater use by different sectors may actually rise to compensate for the drier climate. Such actual water use can be metered and monitored by water suppliers so that actual consumption numbers can be introduced in the future into the risk assessment model to improve predictions.

Sectors to be Included in Risk Assessment - Drought is an area-wide phenomenon that has different types of impacts on various sectors. From a national, regional and provincial perspective, the impacts on all of these sectors must be considered. In a regional drought, it is expected that all of these sectors would be affected and all of them will directly, or indirectly, affect the population, social quality of life and economic development. x Domestic x Industrial

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 45 x Commercial and Institutional x Public Health and Safety x Energy x Agriculture x Ecosystems x Wildfire x Recreation Specific tasks for the Risk Assessment Model include: x Review of international and national Risk Assessment Models x Development and design and testing of model x Staff training in approach, needs, data collection x Pilot projects to test, adapt and validate models and methods in different locations

6.7.3 Risk Management and Mitigation

The primary objective of drought risk management is to mitigate--lessen or limit—the adverse impacts of drought.

Before the Drought Mitigation Planning - Risk and impact mitigation should start before a drought. Identifying where the drought impacts are likely to occur, and whom the impacts will affect, helps policymakers, farmers, industries and others to be better prepared in focusing the implementation of their risk mitigation plans. Central and provincial officials can focus on areas with the greatest predicted losses and integrate the management of different sectors, such as energy and industry, or the regulation of reservoirs to minimize the combined impact.

Stakeholder Meetings and Technical Assistance - Officials can begin to implement technical assistance and stakeholder meetings for sectors in vulnerable areas designed to educate people in how to reduce risk: Local water suppliers can see how different groups of customers will be affected and implement early requirements and programs for water savings to preserve available supplies.

Timing – It is critical that these plans are ready for implementation before a drought. Different levels of mitigation should already have been designed to fit with possible levels of drought severity. For example, if a forecast is made for a “dry” season, three months before it occurs, officials may choose to initiate voluntary conservation in an urban area. This may change to moderate rationing, if forecasts are made for a drought one month before the dry season.

Preparing these plans early has several advantages: It allows a broader range of options to be considered, tested and implemented before it is “too late” for their consideration; requirements established before a crisis are less likely to be challenged in the midst of a crisis; and people will be required to make changes in an earlier phase that will help in preventing drought impacts.

Categories of Drought Risk Mitigation Measures – Risk mitigation measure should be prepared for the categories shown below. These include demand management (non-structural conservation measures) and water supply enhancement projects (structural) appropriate for drought management. A comprehensive list of detailed non-structural and structural measures within each of the categories below has been designed and may be found in Appendix C. x Policies, Regulations and Legal Requirements

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 46 x Organization, Management, Operation and Coordination Mechanisms x Drought Preparedness Plans for Urban Areas, Agriculture and Pasture x Non-Structural Water Savings Measures and Practices For: Water Supplier and Utility Operations

Residential Use

Commercial, Industrial, Public Use

Agriculture x Diversification of Water Supplies for Drought Including: Wastewater Treatment and Water Reuse

Rain/Stormwater Catchments

Groundwater Banking

Local Ponds and Wells

Desalination and Mobile Desalination Units x Improved System Flexibility for Drought Integrated Regional management Agreements

Reservoir Operational Efficiency

Conjunctive Use of Ground and Surface Water

Drought Water Bank

Impact Mitigation During the Drought – Some impacts can be prevented by taking action before a drought and other impacts can be mitigated to reduce the losses. For example, measures that reduce wasteful water use or increase efficiency should have no impact upon quality of life or production. These measures must be supported during a drought to ensure their effectiveness by providing education, technical and some financial assistance.

Targeted Services - Other losses from drought may still occur and will require special targeted services to soften the impact once it occurs. This is especially true in prolonged drought. For example, even with the best efforts, in agriculture, land will be fallowed, crops lost or yields reduced. Herds, even if culled, may be sold for a low price. In some areas people will lose their only source of food, income and/or employment. Local areas that are “self-supplied” may run out of drinking water supply completely. This is particularly true for remote, small and poor villages.

There may also be water utility system losses. For example, if water conservation efforts are successful, the operations of water and wastewater treatment plants may suffer when conservation significantly reduces the flows for which the plants were designed. In addition, where the price of water is based on the volume used, utility revenues will decline from conservation and this may affect future financing and operations.

China is well prepared with plans to provide emergency relief. These could be improved with better risk assessment and monitoring of-related impacts.

Creating a Safety Net for Poor, Remote and Vulnerable Populations – The central, provincial and local governments should: take direct responsibility for identifying vulnerable groups and remote villages. Forecasting, risk assessment and impact monitoring should be carefully designed for their needs even if the individual population groups are small. Villages that are identified in an “at-risk” assessment area,

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 47 no matter how remote, should receive early warnings, be educated on the potential risks, and receive technical assistance in the form of water savings and storage, advice on crops, planting, ground preparation or herd management. Technical and financial assistance should be provided for improving the type and design of local supplies and storage in advance.

A system should be established to monitor food and water conditions on-site in these locations during the drought —either through scheduled field visits or local reporting to a centralized location. A program should be established, incorporating solutions for local transport conditions that provide aid to these groups and to remote villages to ensure that basic food and water needs are met. In addition, affordable programs should be designed in advance that assist people to survive, recover, and reduce their future vulnerability based upon a realistic assessment of their ability to pay for items such as new seed or equipment over time. Tasks associated with this safety net include: x Design a framework for meeting the needs of vulnerable groups x Forecast drought for remote, mountain and hilly areas x Design early warning system with a communications system to ensure local timely receipt and follow-up of information x Educate local populations in the value of the early warning system x Provide pre-drought technical assistance to vulnerable groups to better cope with drought, including assistance in agricultural planning, alternative sources of income, including women x Improve water and food services to vulnerable groups during and after the drought with transport plan compatible with local conditions x Assist in developing localized water sources and improving the design of local collection and storage, rainwater collection and wells x Develop procedure to monitor impacts on people on the ground during drought x Create dry year contingency plans for local areas

Categories for Special Attention - Some of the extreme direct and indirect impacts and losses that should be monitored for special assistance during the drought include: x Community Drinking Water Supplies and Quality x Public Health x Agricultural Crop Losses (particularly for subsistence farmers) x Livestock x Income and Employment x Food, Clothing, Health and Schools x Energy x Fire Recovery from Drought –

The focus of recovering from drought should be on actions that assist immediate recovery. This includes actions such as post drought evaluation, replenishment of water supplies and social, economic and resources recovery. The evaluation should include an updated assessment of damages and losses, compensation and assistance.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 48 Drought ends with the onset of a normal pattern of precipitation. However, depending on its length and severity, water supplies and other impacts will take longer to recover. Although small watersheds and water in storage in medium and small scale reservoirs are likely to recover with the advent of one wet year, recovery for large water supply systems and reservoirs takes longer. This means that water deliveries may still be curtailed to users. In addition, improvement in soil conditions will be delayed until rainfall runs off hardened surfaces, then penetrates and saturates the soil.

Next Year Drought Contingency Planning

There is no way to be certain that one year of drought will not be followed by another one. The classic error is to assume that the next period will bring adequate rainfall. This assumption results in a return to normal patterns of water delivery and consumption. If the rain fails again, people are worse off. The reservoirs and groundwater levels will be lower and the wrong crops planted. Each subsequent year that drought returns, conditions will be progressively worse.

The risk management approach drought planning includes a dry year contingency plan in case dry conditions continue. Such lengthy dry periods exist in the historic record of all drought-prone areas, including China, at the same time that population and land uses have intensified the need for scarce water. The Southwest of the United States has recorded two virtually uninterrupted droughts of 30 years and 50 years over a period of 150 years.

Climate change is expected to change water patterns, making it especially important to not base present and future large river system allocations on historical data, when this may be overestimating future availability, as has happened for the Colorado River system in the United States. In China, as in the United States, land use policies and plans have allowed large scale urban growth to occur in arid areas, leaving large populations vulnerable to declining rainfall and imported water deliveries from other basins. Moreover, overuse of groundwater and associated land subsidence can threaten the integrity of the very water facilities that transport the water from one location to another.

Drought Contingency Plans should include: x Lessons Learned and Modifications x Planning for the next dry year and multiple dry years x Continued and Improved Forecasting x Increased Conservation and Efficiency x Diversification of Water Supplies x Improved Flexibility of Water Supplies x On-Going Public Education The Strategic framework (Chapter 8 and 9) has been developed from the work undertaken during this TA and in the light of international experience and practices. It is envisaged that there will be comment and discussion on the framework over time. The pilot activities recommended are an integral part of this strategy because they will provide the platform to address issues and constraints and provide a learning resource for training and skills development within the system. They will be the vehicle to develop and test early warning and risk assessment models. This may look daunting but if approached in sequential way will fit together and be accomplished over time and also allow for adaptation and modification during the process.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 49 7. Outcome of Pilots Studies in Designated Provinces

Theoretical pilots were undertaken to gain an understanding of drought issues, current problems and approaches to drought management, emergency response and mitigation practices and to assess the potential for introducing a risk management approach.

Three provinces were suggested as pilot sites for field visits by MWR. These were Inner Mongolia, Liaoning and Anhui. Inner Mongolia in 2009 was experiencing a drought that required an emergency response and the other provinces have complex water issues that drought impacts upon. Tianjin was also considered because it has adopted an urban water management strategy aimed at improving planning and water use throught integration of water and urban construction bureau fostered by the national government.

Field visits were conducted to the three provinces (Inner Mongolia in September; Liaoning in November and Anhui in December. Although the severe weather caused some problems with field visits to Liaoning and Anhui, these were informative and provincial officials were supportive. Tianjin was visited as part of the International Workshop to allow participants to discuss the situation with the Municipal officials and assess risk management, early warning and public education as well as institutional aspects of changing roles of water resource departments.

Follow up discussions were held with officials from Inner Mongolia and Liaoning in April 2010 in Beijing to discuss the mitigation plans and what they considered to be shortfalls in the current system.

The three provinces differ considerably in their water resources, environments and drought management issues. Detailed information on the conditions and approaches in each province is contained in the Interim Report, Chapter 7. After field visits and discussion in phase 1, a comparison was made with drought plans, actions and possibilities for changes in approach in phase 2. The suitability for each province as a full scale field pilot site was also considered.

Note: As a result of the drought inn South West China in 2009/10, a field visit was also undertaken to Guiyang Municipality in Guizhou Province in November 2010. The areas surrounding Guiyang city were seriously affected by the drought. The key issues discussed were the responses to drought, lessons learned and if changes in approaches and attitudes appear to have taken place and the possibility of Guiyang being a pilot site for demand management strategies. This reported in two parts of the report, the possible use of Guiyang as pilot for demand management is in Appendix 4 and the impacts and attutitudes to drought from the recent experience is in Appendix 7, the Addendum addressing the drought in S.W. China

7.1 Key findings of the Pilots for Drought Risk Management Implementation The key findings are presented below: x There is limited understanding of the risk management concept, application and usefulness in the pilot provinces. x The provinces lack the technology, expertise and resources to undertake a risk management approach. They have limited confidence in weather forecasting and little understanding of modelling and integration of data sets. There is a fear of failure from forecasting and or over use of water from early warnings about drought. Similarly, understanding of the need for and types of data and how to use these is lacking although data is collected routinely.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 50 x There is a significant task to train and educate provincial staff and to foster change to address drought and encourage new thinking to provide solutions for the many stakeholders involved in drought. x Drought management has a lower priority than other aspects of water management in funding and planning reflected in lower staffing levels are low compared to other water resource areas. x The current approach to drought is not able to address climate change into the future and therefore not able to adapt to changes quickly. The lack of understanding of the means of monitoring from integrated climate and impact assessment of potential climate change is a significant gap in the emergency approach as this limits early warning and a does not foster a longer term perspective to potential droughts. x The current approach is not able to cope with a multi-year widespread severe drought because water conservation or water demand management states late and is single year focused. x Discussions about the drought in parts of Inner Mongolia in 2009 and the ongoing water shortages in Western Liaoning indicate the inability to adequately address ongoing drought and or water scarcity effectively in the more remote areas away from main rivers. Hence there are large areas of provinces that are not well serviced by regular or emergency measures that are particularly vulnerable to drought in part due to current thinking and funding mechanism that concentrate major rivers. A different funding mechanism is needed to support the many small scale activities and innovative approaches needed in these areas. Funding is for emergency funding, not for preventative or proactive actions to reduce the need for emergency actions. x The development imperative is not matched by water resource planning and this will exacerbate the impacts of a long term multi year drought. Land use and water resource planning activities need to consider drought and impacts of water scarcity in development. x There is a need for mechanisms to support affected communities and households that face personal and economic hardship as a result of drought. Livelihood support measures such as crop insurance and income support are needed to help affected individuals and communities recover from drought impacts and maintain productivity. Otherwise, these households and communities become trapped in debt and poverty cycles they cannot escape from. x There is an interest in change in provinces as they have realised the shortfalls in the current approach. The often continual emergency situations are recognised as not a sustainable way to address the issues and there is a fear of a worsening scenario without a corresponding solution at present. x Provincial pilots and or pilots with a wider scope such as regional or river basin scale are feasible although this would require considerable resources and probably outside international support. These need to be carefully designed and implemented in at least three areas that can test and demonstrate improved methods of monitoring and early warning in the first instance and support improved mitigation planning as a vehicle for supporting change through learning by doing. x Discussion about the severe drought in the southwest of China highlights the need for proactive measures (early warning and risk mapping) and better funding to improve the local situation with many different means to collect and store water for drinking (ongoing program to improve the situation rather than waiting for an emergency). The situation also highlights the need for a national system of early warning and monitoring because this area of China is generally not considered to be a drought area but the lack of rainfall starting in May to September in 2009 should have triggered a warning and started conservation earlier.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 51 7.2 Serious Drought Issues in China that Risk Management can address The most serious drought issue facing China is that at some point in the coming years China will experience a large scale multi year drought as has occurred in the past. This will have a very wide geographical spread with increasing severity over a multi year timeframe. The existing system would have difficulty managing such a drought because the pressure on water resources is so great and conservation measures in place now are not adequate and start too late. Hence a change in approach is needed. It is recognised that this will take some time and a better method needs to be developed and shown for acceptance. In undertaking this, key constraints need to be addressed to overcome shortfalls in the exiting system and foster change.

There are several reasons why China would benefit from a change to risk management for drought. The following key issues and constraints can be addressed through risk management.

The ongoing confusion between drought and water scarcity. A better understanding of drought is needed to effectively address water scarcity as well as drought. The risk assessment undertaken as part of risk management will provide the basis for defining areas most at risk or more vulnerable to drought and these can be resourced accordingly to address the risk.

The increasing water scarcity regardless of drought. China has a significant pool of people continually at risk of limited drinking. As indicated in the case studies of Liaoning and Inner Mongolia, these people are very vulnerable and they are very poorly serviced by the existing water resource systems, often because they are away from the major river systems and reservoirs. These groups need a different approach to water resources management and they are the most marginalised group and the first and most seriously affected by drought. This is also true for the more remote and mountainous areas as demonstrated in the South West in 2010.

The fact that there are many cities very vulnerable to drought because of the existing water allocation mechanisms and waste within the system. If water is scarce in normal periods then scarcity will be exacerbated by drought. The approach has usually been to try to find more water through ground water use or major transfers from elsewhere. This use pattern tend to become a permanent feature and then no longer available in a drought situation. This approach is not sustainable in the longer term. Drought risk management also supports a better allocation of water resources and water demand management.

The belief that weather forecasting is not accurate enough to be of use. Forecasts are only a part of an early warning system and must be used as part of a modelling construct that is adapted for different locations and land use patterns. Even if a forecast is inaccurate and rainfalls to break a potential drought, this is a good outcome, not a failure and the water conserved is a bonus. Early warnings are needed to limit the impact of drought and the situation in South West of China in 2010 demonstrates the need for an early warning system to conserve water before the emergency is declared.

The belief that drought will not have a major impact because of all the engineering and physical structures that are in place now. This myth has been disproved by drought elsewhere in the world because population and development continually increase water use while supply is a finite constraint. China is now experiencing the reality of that with the push for economic development and population growth increasing demand resulting in infrastructure struggling to cope. Water saving in existing systems and uses and, water recycling to usable standards across the country would benefit a much greater number of people and shore up supply for drought conditions as well.

Climate change is happening and will continue to impact on water availability across China. The declining rainfall pattern across much of northern China is an example of this. Much of the grain

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 52 production is across this area and continued decline in rainfall will impact on food security especially during droughts. This also increases pressure on ground water reserves use as a substitute for surface water. The impact of the drought of 2001 -2002 across the north east demonstrates this clearly such as the decline in grain production in Liaoning. Understanding the vulnerability to drought can include the impacts on food production as part of a modelling process for risk assessment.

A major widespread multi year drought will have a major impact on China, regardless of the current development and infrastructure. The development of China has increased water use significantly and population has also increased. This has made the country more vulnerable to a major drought, regardless of the infrastructure. The history of the water supply for Beijing is an example of the effectiveness of infrastructure over time. The initial reservoirs supplied Beijing and Tianjin as well as agriculture in the local areas, now they struggle to supply just Beijing and this is similar in many other places, hence the increase in water scarcity often cited.

Provincial planning alone is also not enough to deal with the above scale of drought and regional/national level planning and action will be required as well as provincial and lower level plans and actions. Discussions with the provincial SFCDRH staff indicate that they understand they have no mechanism to cope with multi year drought.

The use of ground water has masked the real situation of water supply in many parts of China because there is a common misunderstanding that ground water is somehow different from surface water. The over use of ground water from aquifers that cannot be recharged quickly will become a major issue in a multiyear drought if this reserve is not longer readily available through over use. Ground water pollution is an extremely serious related issue because pollution can make the reserve unusable or expensive to use.

The existing emergency response system needs significant changes to adapt to a risk management approach and a major learning by doing effort for staffs are needed as part of that. Staffs within the system have little understanding of the principles and practices for risk management. This will take time work through the system so the sooner it is started the better. Undertaking pilots as a vehicle for learning from and to adapt approaches used elsewhere is a recognised and acceptable mechanism in China. The pilots proposed in this project are a starting point for the change process and a vehicle for learning and development, not an end point. Hence the pilots should support the development of drought risk management plans as opposed to drought emergency plans.

Flood was considered the major problem in China and within the SFCDRH. It has taken a long time to address floods and it will take a long time to address drought for similar reasons of scale and complexity hence it is important to start as soon as possible. There is no quick fix and an iterative process is needed to make the necessary changes over time.

Drought is now recognised as the largest natural disaster impact on agriculture in China with serious implications for food security. The impact of drought on the wider ecology such as wet lands and desertification are equally important. Measures are needed to address these through risk management and a better understanding of drought so future generations have a better resource base and natural environment.

The increasing impact on agriculture is placing farmers and rural communities in serious financial hardship. Methods of reducing or mitigating this impact through crop insurance and similar compensation or support mechanisms need to be investigated. Private insurance is unlikely to cover longer term drought (those of more than one year) alone hence provincial based schemes through the Finance Bureau or similar need to be tested and or a national scheme combined with province and private sector should also be investigated. Crop insurance and similar measure need to be supported

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 53 by risk assessment and monitoring mechanisms to validate claims in a similar manner to the National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) used for exceptional circumstance support to farmers in Australia. Without such a mechanism, crop insurance and or compensation across large areas is not viable option.

Drought risk management plans are needed at national/regional scales and then down through the system to effectively deal with multi year drought impacts. The pilots are a vehicle to develop these plans initially. The selection of the pilots is important to allow for and reflect the higher through to lower level needs. River basin and or regional scale pilots to support development of such plans need to be considered for this reason. These will necessarily cross provincial boundaries hence provincial involvement is an integral part of this process. Provincial level pilots are also recommended to support the necessary learning at this level.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 54 8. Strategic Framework for Drought Risk Management

The change from Emergency or Disaster response to a proactive risk management approach has been an iterative one elsewhere as the mechanisms and methods were developed and adapted. China has an advantage in that much of the theoretic and conceptual thinking has been done and methods and models necessary tested in practice as part of the learning and implementation elsewhere. As such the general risk management approach can be adopted and adapted for China. The following section outlines the opportunities and constraints associated with the establishment of a risk based drought management system, and details the key components of the recommended framework.

8.1 Opportunities and Constraints for Drought Risk Management in China

8.1.1 Opportunities

China, through the SFCDRH has an existing institutional framework from national through to local level; an existing policy and regulation framework and a history of undertaking emergency measures. It has a mitigation planning process and funding mechanism. It has the Drought Classification Indices as existing trigger points for actions. The DRR allow considerable scope for introducing science and technology into planning and mitigation that would be the basis of an early warning and monitoring system.

China has an advanced emergency response capability and excellent infrastructure and communications to deal with that approach, and this is still part of risk management. Hence, China does not have to establish a new system, rather it has to refocus the existing system and resource it appropriately.

Discussions with provincial SFCDRH indicate a willingness to change, driven by recognition of shortfalls in the existing system. Although there is limited understanding of the risk management approach, the need for a better system is obvious to those dealing with drought and struggling to meet the needs of communities and individuals. When asked what they would do in a second year of drought, they answered with exasperation, “ask for help”.

8.1.2 Constraints

The major change needed is a move in thinking and action from a reactive timeframe into a proactive timeframe as outlined in Chapter 2 Section 2.3. Issues and constraints were reported in the Interim Report and Interim Workshop. The primary issue is that there is a lack of understanding of the means to do this and how to move forward. China often uses a piloting approach to assess and evaluate new approaches.

China collects a lot of data but access to this data and the type of data does not foster adequate analysis of information. The current system does not complete the learning process that fosters change and resilience, rather it entrenches emergency responses. Figure 2 below outlines the cycle of drought risk planning that includes emergency responses. China currently operates in the lower half of the cycle and needs to change thinking and practices to complete the cycle.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 55 Table 2 Drought Risk Management Cycle

Drought Risk Management Cycle

Early warning and monitoring Risk assessment, risk mapping and risk management matrix

Recovery and information Risk mitigation and risk collection to feed into risk management planning assessment for early Supporting drought risk plans warnings an better planning and funding to address short for next time and long term issues

Implementation of mitigation actions and then emergency responses if required

China currently lacks the risk assessment and early warning mechanisms and this entrenches the emergency response. It is failing to effectively learn and adapt for the next drought event.

Analysis of the drought in the South West demonstrates the shortcomings of the emergency response that waits until the situation is serious before starting responses. The response then has to be an emergency in nature because the situation is then an emergency with limited drinking water for households already widespread.

However, the inertia and attitudes in the existing system is the largest constraint to change that the strategy seeks to address. Other major constraints include the change in funding and resources to support risk management; the collection and access to relevant data for modelling, risk assessment and early warning; the cooperation between different departments and agencies and the need to implement change across a large existing system.

8.2 Framework Addressing Key Issues This plan is to provide support and guidance for changes in drought management towards a risk management strategy that can help with the management of drought impacts starting before a drought occurs through to managing recovery. This will be supported by an action plan for implementation.

8.2.1 Purpose of the Strategic Plan

The strategic plan sets out the major issues and ways that these can be addressed. It is envisaged that these can be tested through a new follow up project that undertakes a piloting phase to prove and modify the plan and actions for wider implementation in the future. Some of the issues are already under consideration or may have addressed or investigated previously. However, integration of these has not been undertaken.

The current role of SFCDRH is to respond to emergencies after significant drought impacts have occurred. The role of the SFCDRH will have to change significantly as part of the move towards a risk management approach for drought. Risk management is a proactive approach, not a reactive approach hence the role of SFCDRH will be larger than is currently is and there will be an increased need to integration of wider water management issues into monitoring and action of emerging situations than happens at present. Significant research and development will be needed to support this role.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 56 8.2.2 Time required developing and testing system

Understanding of and developing the risk matrix for China is a very large task that will take time to complete because of the diversity of landscapes and pressures on water supplies in different locations. This is part of an iterative process that has to be undertaken sequentially to support adaptation of models and methods for different areas within a national context of early warning, risk assessment and mitigation actions.

8.2.3 Need to have something to show for acceptance of risk management

Change is easier if there is something understandable that can be demonstrated or shown to people within the system. An important part of pilots is to develop and demonstrate a system that staffs from SFCDRH and Water Resource Departments can understand and accept as valid. This takes time and education leading to increased awareness within the existing system. It also builds on the case for support for cooperation between departments because it is easier to explain the needs for better cooperation.

An example is the work undertaken by IWHR in Liaoning Province that investigates the links between drought impacts on agricultural output and relates spatial data to on ground data and integrates these into a visual format for demonstrating impacts. This work is preliminary and can be extended much further to form the basis for a drought impact scenario tool for agricultural production (and later urban water) to support an early warning system and a monitoring system.

8.2.4 Existing Attitudes and existing funding priorities

As with 8.2.2&3, changing the current thinking of the large numbers of staffs will not be easy nor will this happen quickly throughout the system. There is considerable inertia linked to current funding priorities and existing attitudes within the existing system that see value in maintaining the status quo rather than valuing change. Similarly, the existing funding mechanisms favour and support the existing system and will take time to change. Existing and new activities with necessary financial support will have to be undertaken concurrently to support change within the system. Many existing emergency measures will still be needed and maintained.

8.2.5 Lack of integration between agencies and clear guidelines for implementation of actions before a drought emergency is declared

Drought cuts across many administrative boundaries in China with different jurisdictions relating to different aspects of water use and other social functions. Historically, these have not cooperated well in sharing data and effectively integrating actions. However, the SFCDRH has the power in emergencies to coordinate and integrate activities. This needs to be extended to cooperation and coordination for early warning for drought, water conservation measure and ongoing actions to monitor drought impacts and preparedness for future drought. Action needs to go well beyond the emergency role into everyday involvement in drought and water management with support from other agencies such as meteorology, agriculture and urban water suppliers/ construction.

National laws and regulations are general in nature with specific implementation left mainly to Provincial administrations. Several provinces have undertaken more details drought preparedness planning, focused mostly through the emergency perspective. However, a more rigorous set of guidelines is needed for a risk management approach to work in advance to prevent emergencies. These need to be developed in cooperation with Provinces and other water managers including River Basin Commissions.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 57 The roles of River Basin Commissions need to be more clearly defined for drought management purposes. These bodies work across provincial boundaries but lack authority to allocate and manage much of water resources across provincial boundaries because they lack provincial representation. Similarly, many smaller tributaries are not part of the river basin commission’s mandate. Recent discussions with river basin commissions indicate they have only just started to consider drought as an issue they can address; they need a greater role with better planning and a coordinated approach with other water users and managers to be effective.

8.2.6 Scale and Diversity of landscape and environment

China is very large and diverse country. This means there will be different scenarios for drought management in different locations. However, a common framework can be applied for that can accommodate diversity. The national level has a significant role in early warning, monitoring and resources, provinces in mitigation plans and actions and local levels in actions and support. River Basin Commissions are important across boundaries. The roles and actions need to be clearly defined and refines over the piloting and implementation phase to accommodate the diversity without losing sight of the national, regional, provincial and local perspectives.

8.2.7 Responsibility within the system

SFCDRH currently operates throughout the system from national through to county and local levels. However, responsibility for many aspects of water management within the system may be elsewhere such as within the Water Resource Bureau and this can limit the effectiveness of the drought efforts. The importance of the role of drought management needs to be increased to reflect the growing importance of drought and water scarcity in general. An outcome of models and pilots will be the ability to assess parts of the country at higher risk that can receive higher priority for actions. The coordination role of the SFCDRH must be enhanced and brought forward into a proactive mode to support water resource management in emerging drought situations.

8.3 Strengths and Weaknesses of Current System China has an existing system and structure for drought management within a disaster context. An entirely new system is not needed but changes are needed to adopt a risk management strategy.

8.3.1 Strengths

The current system was designed and developed primarily for flood management with drought of lesser importance. Flood management remains a major part and this can be seen as strength for the system in general because the structure exists and functions.

In terms of emergencies, mechanisms are in place to help alleviate drought impacts so a completely new system is not needed, rather a new approach and priorities. The institutional system is a major asset and is supported by the policy and regulatory frameworks that are in place. The DRR is a guiding principles document that can accommodate a risk management approach. In an operational sense, the emergency functions of much of local level would no need to change greatly in a risk management approach but other functions would need to be added. However major changes in thinking are required at all levels.

8.3.2 Weaknesses

The current system is largely reactive and less proactive. SFCDRH does not have a role in water management per se so is limited in its ability to conserve water or address longer term issues. Although SFCDRH can act decisively in an emergency, it has to do this through other MWR and

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 58 Provincial DWR and related agencies. A more cohesive approach that involved the river basin commissions in the system from early warning and monitoring with regular meetings to be proactive would overcome this weakness. The SFCDRH should play an active role in the monitoring and early warning system as a part of its normal role and then lead the process of warning on emerging drought scenarios across the country instead of waiting for an emergency to be reported up through the system. Similarly, there is a major need for a proactive role in supporting water conservation; the need for means to support more remote areas away from the major rivers; a funding mechanism to support research and development of systems for monitoring and early warning and economic assessment of drought and development impacts.

8.4 Comparisons with Pilot Sites Pilot site emergency plans follow existing guidelines but lack real information on which to base analysis for improvement. Emergency plans support emergency activities but are not able to cope with a long term drought because they start too late and do not have the risk assessment and funding to deal with existing issues or to deal with potential problems that will occur during a drought situation.

Inner Mongolia has a very diverse landscape and land use mixture hence needs a strategy that also incorporates pasture management during drought as well emergency and ongoing water supplies for remote communities and individuals. Liaoning has an existing problem of people in water scarce mountainous areas that need to be serviced differently from the mainstream of water users with an innovative approach. Liaoning has increasing industrial and urban development that is increasing vulnerability to drought. Anhui has increasing population and development pressure affecting water resources and needs mechanisms to assess risk and accommodate the diverse needs of water users.

Although the original point of the pilots was for provincial focus in this TA, the next phase pilots need to have much more integrated approach and much larger areas such a regional focus or a major river basin such as the Yellow River should be considered. Drought does not respect administrative boundaries and is best monitored on a wider basis for planning and concerted actions. However, there is a need for a national involvement in early warning and coordination that then supports more action at provincial and local level because the national level gives legitimacy to provincial and local level action.

8.5 Developing an Appropriate Strategic Framework Incorporating Risk Management Developing a strategic framework requires putting together a mix of existing and new concepts, policies and inputs in a framework to address drought from a different perspective that starts much earlier than the existing emergency response system and, continues after the apparent end of the drought emergency phase. Droughts are less predictable than floods; they have a wider spread and vary in extent and intensity. It is difficult to predict the actual start and finish of a particular drought event or clearly define the edge or boundary and the impacts can last well beyond the actual event. Recovery can take a long time and a drought event can last for many years. The drought matrix is different from the flood matrix for these reasons.

Hence a risk management framework needs to be based on the rigorous scientific risk assessment –- supported by sound policy and institutional structures; sound research and models; sound decision support mechanisms and coordination of interventions and, education and training all with appropriate funding to ensure the system works. Failures in these areas will limit the effectiveness of a risk management approach.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 59 This study acknowledges that ‘risk’ is increasing due to a combination of factors but addressing these is more complicated than simply undertaking risk assessment per se.

8.6 Before, During and After Matrix An inherent part of a risk management approach is to understand the actions that can be undertaken before, during and after a drought event. These actions will vary with specific locations and events but common principles will apply. The essential component of this matrix is good information about all aspects of water use within the context of the emerging event. This is the basis for early warning and water conservation and demand management before and during the event and, monitoring during and after the event into recovery to learn from the experiences to improve and refine the systems in preparation for the next event.

As mentioned earlier and emphasised again, this requires the development of sound scientifically based data base and models, cooperation with and between departments for information and combined actions and open reviews of the impacts of actions and outcomes over time. Since water users cover many different use patterns within a given area, an integrated approach is necessary for effective management. The development of before, during and after matrix is part of implementation of pilots and an essential part of training, learning and understanding for all levels involved in drought management.

8.7 Strategic Framework and Key Points Table 3 Stategic Framework and Key Points

Key Issues Actions required Outcomes expected Timeframe

Legal and Policy Ongoing support

Clarification and Standard guidelines interpretation formalised and operating for DRR and related procedures policies and regulations.

Institutions Ongoing

Institutions SFCDRH Clarification of roles and Agreed chains of cooperation between command and actions MWR partners DWR RBC Provincial Gov Local Gov

Science and Ongoing, regular input Technical Support into early warnings and risk assessment

Proactive planning Development of Regular meetings and monitoring of scientifically sound between partners lead drought scenarios methods and mechanisms by SFCDRH to provide for early warning and information on potential and emerging

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 60 drought monitoring drought situation so actions can be initiated Cooperation and coordination between partners and researchers to develop, test and verify models and systems

Addressing drought Identification of areas at Drought risk mapping Before drought occurs hazards at different risk in general and and early warning levels emerging specific hot system established spots across the country and implemented. Warning issued through partners to affected areas and agencies

Drought Risk Before and during Mitigation Planning droughts and actions

Addressing exposure Cooperation between Agreed actions to at different levels partners to manage and conserve and maintain conserve water; education water suppliers in case and awareness programs, of prolonged drought water saving initiatives Supporting a water (ongoing) across all saving society sectors, waste water treatment

Funding and During droughts Ongoing mitigation

Addressing Initiating support plans for Social and other vulnerability at affected communities, support mechanisms in different levels water users place

Recovery from Supporting mechanisms Funds used to support Drought for communities and recovery, security nets individuals in place

Research, Analysis Ongoing and Information from impact and recovery for better planning and mitigation

Undertaking reviews Monitoring and analysis of Information base is and lessons drought scenario and improved and actions analysed for future impacts undertaken by refined for future planning and partners planning response

Developing and

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 61 issuing Drought Risk Management Plans

Development and Following the general Drought management Completes the learning issue of risk guidelines given, these planning is proactive cycle before the next management move planning forward rather than reactive, drought occurs planning and action into a risk framework starting response to for provinces emerging drought much earlier

8.8 Rationale for the Framework

8.8.1 Legal, policy and Institutional Issues

Although the DRR has been released and some clarification of drought measures put forward in the form of drought indices, there is still confusion as to how to interpret and implement the DRR in a risk context. This also has implications for the institutions involved because they lack to means to undertake some aspects of DRR for a risk approach such development of a comprehensive database and analysis tools to support early warning. Similarly, the notion of risk management and scientific tools goes beyond the current planning and mitigation work undertaken by provinces. Early warning is part of the emergency and mitigation plans but in this context, a situation already exists that should have been found much earlier with better tools. Further study of and clarification of the DRR and how to apply these is needed in provinces and this should be guided by a combination of the scientific decision support tools and local and provincial contextual realities.

The implementation of a risk management approach requires changes in the way SFCDRH operates. The proactive nature of the risk management approach means the SFCDRH must become proactive and develop this role. The logical means is through coordination of the early warning mechanism with other cooperating agencies and down through the system so SFCDRH is taking the leading role in interpreting the meteorological, hydrological and related data integrated through the models and presenting this to regular meetings as a national early warning system for drought. Undertaking pilots would provide some answers and guidance to these changes by highlighting the work that is necessary and must be incorporated into future efforts. An important part of the pilots could also be preparation of guidelines for implementation of risk management utilising the DRR framework.

8.8.2 Science and Technical Support

The development of early warning systems and risk assessment models and testing these in pilots sites is a necessary part of implementing the strategy. This needs to be undertaken concurrently with the above and cooperation with other agencies including universities and research institutes is necessary. International support is also important as other countries have been through the process and developed expertise and models for this purpose. China has the skilled people and technical support although it lacks experience in using the models and integrating the data bases and outputs. It is la large task to input the data and undertake the modelling initially but once done, updating and utilization are straight forward.

8.8.3 Proactive planning and monitoring of drought scenarios

Current drought management plans are based on emergency actions and mitigation. Considerable further effort is required to incorporate risk management at all levels and greatly increased cooperation between agencies is necessary. Different part of MWR are undertaking work that is necessary for

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 62 planning for integrated water resource management that is also necessary for drought planning. Drought management is a part of integrated water resource management hence the tools for early warnings and so on is a common element that can be used effectively elsewhere in the systems.‘

MWR and SFCDRH have to find ways to ensure cooperation and integration of activities so that data is available and used effectively for drought management planning. The pilots can demonstrate the value of this approach by also bringing provincial efforts into a wider regional format necessary to address drought across a wider geographical area.

Drought is less predictable than flood hence better information is needed and droughts also cover a much wider area with greater impacts. It is likely that some part of the country will be short of water for various reasons including drought at any one time so better planning and cooperation is needed to address these wide spread and diverse situations as water scarcity continues to worsen. In this way, a major wide spread drought will be predicted earlier and water conservation can be initiated earlier and the exposure and vulnerability can be lessened.

8.8.4 Drought Risk Mitigation Planning and actions - managing drought risk, exposure and vulnerability

Good information and early action is the key to managing drought supported by ongoing water saving and demand management measures to conserve supply at all times. Exposure and vulnerability are increasing for several reasons; drought is one of these with more dramatic short and longer term impacts. However, drought and water scarcity must be addressed on a continual basis through water conservation and water saving programs that require a variety of education, research and support mechanisms. Many of these currently outside of the SFCDRH mandate so cooperation and coordination with other sections of MWR, RBC’s and agencies as well the provincial departments.

8.8.5 Funding and Ongoing mitigation

There will be many different options and possible actions for improved management and these will vary with locations and conditions. Different funding mechanism need to be found for the many different activities. At present many areas are not serviced by the larger schemes such as mountainous areas and areas that lack large rivers. Options such as ground water banks, household tanks, small scale irrigation schemes are not considered large enough or interesting enough to be funded. However, these could be extremely important to many millions of farmers and people in more remote and smaller communities. Pilots can demonstrate the range of possibilities that may be useful in different areas.

Assistance with recovery including forms of crop insurance and income support for farmers and communities need to be evaluated and tested because these are currently not part of emergency responses. Recovery from drought is often neglected in emergency responses.

Monitoring the drought situation from early warning through to recovery provides the information for analysis to make the plans for the future more effective. This completes the cycle of the risk management approach and is the step often missed in emergency planning. Once the systems are in place that support the early warning and risk assessment models, the information from monitoring can be utilized and fed into these to improve the accuracy and effectiveness for the future. This supports the iterative nature of risk management and is a necessary part of ongoing risk management.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 63 8.8.6 Development and issue of risk management planning and action for provinces

The final outcome of the introducing risk management is to improve the planning, mitigation and emergency responses and recovery from drought of provinces (and lower levels) in a more timely and effective manner. Current mitigation response plans focus on emergency preparedness for when an emergency is declared and are inadequate for risk management approach. However, many aspects of the current plans are useful and can be adapted for risk management.

8.9 Actions required lying the foundations for Framework development and implementation x Acceptance of this report and recommendations and or with modifications x Adoption of the framework concept that can then be piloted as a learning and testing vehicle in specific locations. x The roles of SFCDRH and others agencies such as Departments of Meteorology, other Departments within MWR, River Basin Commissions, Provincial agencies and the Environment Protection Agency must be clearly defined for effective changes to be made in addressing drought management in a proactive manner. However, the pilot activities (see below) can demonstrate also where cooperation and coordination will give the best results. x Design and Implementation of Pilots (as outlined in Chapter 10) is a key to implementing the changes necessary for risk management. These will develop and refine the early warning mechanisms, the risk assessment methodologies and risk matrix for different regions and provide the learning and research base for change. These will demonstrate the effectiveness and usefulness of the approach and show how to introduce the approach across the system. Using the pilots as a test bed will inform the process of the changes needed and support planning and institutional change within SFCDRH and related agencies. x Pilots should be undertaken in the field in at least three provinces and / or across a river basin and / or a region such as provinces along the Yellow River with full support from MWR and Provincial DWR and related agencies to full develop models and implementation plans for the future. Pilots will take two to three years to complete with appropriate write ups and publications. x Outcomes of the pilots should include mechanisms for interpretation of and implementation of DRR and other regulations and guidelines to support the future role of risk management for drought within integrated water resource management. x Risk mapping using sound validated risk assessment models should be undertaken that accounts for agriculture, population, weather data and so to build a picture of where to focus efforts to monitor and manage risk. This process involves the development and use of models incorporating data from many sources including real time spatial and monitoring data sets. x Scenario analysis should be undertaken to help mobilise resources and direct wider water conservation efforts. x Awareness raising and community education needs to be undertaken to support efforts to mitigate risk. x Continued research funding is needed to support the development of models and understanding to support the work x Funding and resources are needed to address support for groups at risk such as those already identified in western Liaoning for small and large scale projects

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 64 x Action plan- the action plan is a guide for the key elements to be undertaken and does not cover every action or possibility. However, unless something is started, the overall goal of introducing risk management principles will be lost. x Donors and possible funding sources- the water scarcity in China is attracting donor interest. However, donors are also limited in what they can and are willing to support given the growing economic wealth of China. MWR has received considerable support over the years although the impact of this is less obvious. This is an opportunity make worthwhile gains with international support combined with national resources and expertise. Implementation of the strategy, action plan and pilots cannot be confined to MWR/DWR institutions only. A wider group is necessary to get the skills and data needed to make pilots work effectively and to support scaling up in the future to effectively manage drought issues across China. International assistance is highly recommended in this process to gain from the experience and expertise developed elsewhere.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 65 9. Action Plan

9.1 Introduction The purpose of this action plan is to provide a guide for SFCDRH and MWR to support changes in the approach to drought management utilising risk management methodologies. There is considerable basic research and effort needed to support this change and there no quick fixes or easy solutions. However, the long term objective can be achieved if the process is well supported by the MWR and related agencies and the outcomes demonstrated in the proposed pilots are taken as lessons and incorporated into the ongoing process of change. If the pilots are not supported or are restricted, the outcomes will not be achieved because the necessary information will not be generated and the means to adapt the methods and models to both regional as well as local conditions will not be generated.

9.2 Action Plan Objectives

9.2.1 Short term Objectives

The immediate short term objective is build viable models for validation for drought forecasting, risk mapping, hazard and scenario analysis for three pilot areas covering drought. In support of this a range of water conservation and water demand management mechanisms including education and awareness raising need to be explored. The models would utilise and build on existing work that is adapted to China and replicable across China. Water demand and conservation methods from China and elsewhere would be tried. Incorporating international experience and expertise would be an important part of the pilots as there are many aspects to be considered. In conjunction with the pilots, discussions need to take place on how to implement change and the future role of SFCDRH in proactive drought risk management and this can be achieved.

Outcomes from the pilots would feed into the longer term objectives in an ongoing basis.

9.2.2 Long Term Objectives

The long term objective is have a proactive drought risk management mechanism in place to better cope with emerging water shortages and potential drought events. This can to be part of an integrated water resource management process that integrates information systems to manage the exposure and vulnerability to drought. The role of SFCDRH needs to be strengthened with a clear role in monitoring, early warning and coordination of water resources for drought mitigation conserve water in case of multi year droughts.

This system will allow for the impacts of global climate change to be better monitored for drought. The impact of continued urbanisation on demand for water resources will increase in importance in managing drought impacts and this approach will support better management of water resources to cope with this.

9.3 Principles 1. To move from a reactive to a proactive approach using risk management practices that also support mitigation and reduce exposure and vulnerability through improved decision support tool and better understanding of complex issues involved

2. To develop a sound knowledge base and field tested models for monitoring drought for early warning through to coordinated actions that incorporated agriculture and other water users that is adaptable to conditions throughout China

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 66 3. To develop and clarify planning and implementation of drought mitigation, responses and analysis through the MWR and SFCDRH systems to cope with increasing drought including impact of climate change

4. To support the training and awareness of staffs in understanding science, methodologies and outputs from the systems to raise capacity within the systems

5. To promote water demand management and other water saving mechanisms with an emphasis on drought

The principles behind this plan assumes that the need for a change to a risk management approach for drought is necessary and accepted. As a starting point this approach requires a sound scientific understanding and data base is needed to address drought (and other water scarcity issues).

Decision support tools can be developed and adapted for national, regional through to local levels. The pilots will support this process that must also include cooperation and dialog with many agencies within and outside of MWR and DWR’s.

The plan can be implemented through the existing systems with some changes in roles and responsibilities.

Wider water demand management and education and awareness raising will be necessary to gain the most benefit from the plan.

9.4 Key Tasks for the Action Plan The key tasks can be undertaken concurrently although some build on others and must follow sequentially.

9.4.1 Design and Implementation of Three Pilots

The pilots are necessary to form the basis for developing the databases and model for early warning, monitoring and analysis of drought and water scarcity issues. These are also necessary as a means to demonstrate what is achievable and worthwhile from changing to a risk management approach that is proactive rather than reactive. Pilots need to be comprehensive and incorporate many sources of data including meteorology and remote sensing and satellite data, GIS and land/ water resource information into models for monitoring and early warnings. These would also form the basis for integrated water resource management applications.

9.4.2 Development of data bases and models validated on ground

This has been started in Liaoning with IWHR and needs to be supported. Cooperation with internal and external institutions is needed to foster continued development of the methods and models. Work is also underway elsewhere in China that is beneficial to this process hence these need to be incorporated. This a major scientific and technology undertaking that must be adequately resources and will take two to three years to complete across three pilots. The sooner pilots can commence the better because results can be disseminated to support the strategy and action plan.

9.4.3 Institutional Development

There are several aspects to institutional development to be undertaken concurrently with direct pilot activities. The first is to develop training programs for SFCDRH staffs at all levels so they understand what risk management is and how to use this approach. This is a slow process given the number of staffs throughout the system. The second is to demonstrate to senior staffs in SFCDRH, River Basin Commissions and other MWR and Provincial Staffs the usefulness of the science in water

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 67 management and the need for increased cooperation to achieve better drought management outcomes. The third is to build the need for the proactive role for SFCDRH in drought management, starting with early warning through to water conservation and demand management during the drought event. This will encompass the outcomes of the pilots, and demonstrate the value and uses of the outputs. These are major ongoing tasks and will require a change of attitude within water administrations to foster cooperation as part of institutional development.

The training and institutional development effort needs to continue into points below so maximum benefits are gained from a sound understanding of the approach, its uses and the actions necessary. This will be an ongoing process.

9.4.4 Planning and Administration

The role of the SFCDRH must move to a proactive one for issuance of early warning and managing to risk assessment processes. To do this the SFCDRH must cooperate with other agencies on a regular basis and or have staffs of agencies actively engaged in day to day efforts all the time, not just in an emergency. This is an extension of 8.4.3 and is necessary to prepare for and implement plans early enough for long enough to have the necessary impact. SFCDRH already has this mandate for emergencies so it should be possible to extend this into normal monitoring and early warning action on a regular ongoing basis. If this is not done, early warning and risk management will be seriously compromised.

9.4.5 Management of Drought Hazards

Drought is unique hazard because drought covers a large area and has no definite start or end point and its depth and duration are difficult to define. Drought hazard (see Chapter 1 and 7.4.1) is present all the time although the likelihood varies in different locations. This means that the hazard can be mapped in terms of likelihood and severity based on historical data and changing weather pattern and changing local conditions such as population, water storage, grazing intensity and landscape. The pilots need to address the methods for hazard analysis and risk mapping in the first instance. This can be used across the country and is useful to pinpointing where financial and technical services can be directed towards known and likely areas at risk of ongoing or increased risk based on agreed criteria for drought.

Drought mitigation planning will change as a result of this because the general mitigation through emergency preparation will be inadequate to cope with the changing hazard profiles and ability to cope with drought and or water scarcity.

DRR has extensive references (including Articles 13, 14, 15 and 16) to mitigation planning and this can be significantly enhanced in effectiveness with a sound scientific underpinning with hazard mapping and risk indices.

9.4.6 Management of Exposure to Drought

Exposure to drought is likely to increase in China because of the general pressure on water resources as population increases and water demand increases (see Chapter 1 and 11.4.1). The presents a problem because water resources are finite and largely developed, sometimes over used but demand keeps increasing. Exposure is an important part of the drought mapping exercise to find areas where exposure is increasing or more likely due to different factors. In the longer term, planning for urban and industrial development must consider drought and water resources in a thorough planning process, in the same way flood exposure should be addressed in planning. Similarly, protection of agricultural land and irrigation water supplies is necessary to ensure food security. Hence it makes no sense to

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 68 continue urban and industrial development in areas at a high risk of drought where mitigation through water storage or ground water is already fully utilised.

Article 20 of DRR supports the SFCDRH in a wider planning role to match resources with development to reduce exposure to drought.

9.4.7 Management of Vulnerability

The notion of “drought proofing” was once popular but this has been shown to be extremely difficult on a large scale. This approach relied mostly on structural measures to overcome water shortfalls such as building reservoirs and ‘guaranteeing x number of years supply’. However, the nature of the demand for water changes as populations change and economies change and eventually, there is a limit to structural measures to manage vulnerability. Non structural measures, based on demand management for water from ground and surface water to minimise use and conserve water for a longer period of time is necessary to effectively reduce and manage vulnerability to drought.

This requires a comprehensive approach and considerably more cooperation than is seen in China at present although many pilots and trials have been undertaken. A scattered approach will have little impact on vulnerability. Articles 23, 24 and 26 supports SFCDRH role in sharing information and Article 25 covers water management in conjunction with SFCDRH actions to manage water resources to reduce impact and vulnerability.

9.4.8 Research and Education

Considerable research is needed to support the pilots initially and then into many options for improving current practises relating to drought and wider water management issues. This will form the basis for education and training of Staffs and the public about drought and water management issues. The work that has been conducted as part of many international and domestic projects needs to be put into a wider context and integrated into water management plans including drought management plans. For example, many water saving efforts have been trialled and completed. These can support drought mitigation and water demand management as part of drought risk management. An emergency should not be needed to mobilise this information and incorporate the information and lessons into in plans and actions for mitigation. Article 21 of DRR refers specifically to this role for SFCDRH in promoting research into drought issues.

Internationally, education of water users has been an ongoing and necessary activity to address drought and water scarcity. The DRR has the concept of a ‘water saving society’ (articles 17 and 21) included and this needs to be emphasised by SFCDRH activity and planning efforts.

9.4.9 Funding and Resources

Current funding lines are not directed towards most of the above activities although SFCDRH has a role in directing resources towards appropriate areas (including Article 4).

However, it is recognised that it will take time and a sound argument to change current practices so this argument must be developed through actions in pilots and in research that supports the outcomes of successful trials and research on effectiveness or otherwise of existing resource allocations. This will require a cost benefit analysis of existing practices and a field assessment of effectiveness and usefulness of expenditure. It will require information sharing on the outcomes of the many initiatives tried in different areas of water management such as new water saving technology and demand management and water pricing.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 69 9.5 Main Priorities The main priority for the next project is to develop and test the models and methods for a drought monitoring and early warning system through the pilots and to increase the capacity of SFCDRH to effectively manage drought risk proactively.

Table 4 Table of Actions and Priorities

Action Responsible Suggested Timeframes Groups

Design the 3 pilot projects as suggested in Final SFCDRH, MWR As soon as possible Report. Provinces, other possible donors

Find the funding for Pilots and agree on SFCDRH, MWR Concurrent with Design and cooperation and implementation with provinces Provinces other agreed cooperation and other agencies such as meteorology and possible donors agriculture

Commence the pilots As above As soon as possible

Establish Unit within SFCDRH/ IWHR that SFCDRH and Establish in year 1 to support conducts research and develops methodology for IWHR pilots and training drought information and decision support tools, provides early warning and scenario analysis to SFCDRH and MWR and related agencies.

Undertake a review of existing and past activities SFCDRH, MWR Commence in first year of that relate to water savings, demand and pilot the pilots management and similar activities at national and implementers provincial level and assess outcomes and effectiveness for inclusion in pilots as these progress

Implement the pilots over three years in As Above Ongoing conjunction with Provincial offices and water management agencies

Undertake water user surveys (agricultural, urban SFCDRH, Commence in year 1 of pilots and industrial) and assess understanding of Provincial and so results can be fed into water saving and means for introducing water local bureau pilots and later plans saving mechanisms such as water pricing and recycling of waste water

Develop a drought management plan for each Pilot staffs in Commence from year 2 of province based on pilot outcomes and other conjunction with pilots as the data and activities that incorporated risk management Provinces and information becomes starting with early warning, water conservation SFCDRH available, to include detailed and demand management with ongoing maps and scenario analysis monitoring and management before, during and functions after drought situations

Conduct a national workshop and present pilot As above with At the end of Year 2 findings, prepare research papers and a MWR, IWHR comprehensive report on outcomes and further

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 70 development needs (pilots ongoing to refine approach and serve as a base for training and demonstration activities

Prepare guidelines for implementation of risk SFCDRH and Around end of year 1 to management within DRR for dissemination MWR coincide with training start up

Develop training programs for SFCDRH staff and Pilot staffs and Towards the end of year 2 as other water managers at all levels that SFCDRH information and outcomes incorporate pilot approaches and lessons into are available as SFCDRH activities and plans demonstration tools

Implement the training programs from year three Pilot staffs. IWHR, Commence year 3 of pilots of the pilots so the risk management approach SDRFCH can be spread across the other provinces

Establish a unit within SFCDRH/IWHR that IWHR, SFCDRH Establish in year one to conducts research and develops methodology for support the pilots and drought information and decision support tools develop and test and provides early warning and scenario analysis methodologies to SFCDRH and MWR and related agencies.

Establish a unit in SFCDRH that undertakes SFCDRH Establish in year two to education and training on drought management assist development of and water saving technology and monitors materials and implement ongoing efforts towards a water saving society when ready into year three

Prepare final report of first three years and Pilot staff, IWHR, End of year three conduct an international workshop SFCDRH

After appropriate review, extend the risk SFCDRH, MWR Commence in year four management approach to drought management across provinces with necessary funding.

Support the development and implementation of SFCDRH, MWR, Commence in year four as drought risk management plans across provinces Provincial DWR above and initiate actions to improve resilience and and related preparedness for drought agencies

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 71 10. Recommendations

10.1 Next Steps and recommendation This report, strategy and action plan is a starting point for longer process of change in approach to drought issues in China. The existing system has a long history in dealing with aspects of drought disaster often seen as of lesser importance than flood disasters. Droughts are more insidious than floods, cover large areas and are less predictable. Drought is now recognised as the major natural disaster impact on agriculture with the flow on effects that brings to rural and urban communities and the environment. The impacts of drought on food security and social stability into the future cannot be underestimated.

The impacts of climate change are being reported around China with declining rainfall patterns, declining runoff and more extreme weather events. This will exacerbate the impacts of drought. A major widespread multi year drought has occurred in China every 100 or so years and such an event will occur in the coming decades that will affects hundreds of millions of people across China and seriously impact food production, rural and urban water supplies, industry and the environment. Whilst it is not possible to prevent or avoid such an event, caused by low or lack of rainfall for a prolonger period over a large geographical area, it is possible to be better prepared.

The existing emergency response has limitations in dealing with prolonged multi year drought because it is reactive not proactive. Similarly, the approach to water management has to move from finding more supply to managing demand within supply constraints. This change goes beyond the current role of SFCDRH but has to be considered if droughts are to be approached from a risk management perspective. Hence the importance of the proactive coordination role of SFCDRH must be enhanced into a continual one, not just when a drought is declared. Early warning and conservation of water resources becomes a priority.

Since it will take some time for the understanding of a proactive risk management strategy to be developed and tested in China, the safest pathway is to undertake pilots in different locations across the most vulnerable part of China that demonstrate the benefits of a different approach and that can develop, test and adapt the methods for use across the country. These will inform and support the institutional changes needed by SFCDRH to be proactive.

The Pilots is the logical starting point for moving forward. These need to be comprehensive in nature, covering all the aspects outlined in the strategy and with a geographical spread sufficient to encompass the diversity of China. This will support adaptation across the country as the benefits are demonstrated. This will take two to three years to complete.

10.2 Design of Pilots

10.2.1 Design and Implementation of Pilots

Undertaking appropriate pilots to address wider drought issues is necessary to make the longer term changes towards risk assessment and management. These will provide the learning and developmental phase for scaling up and implementation across the country. Moving from the emergency response to risk management takes time and considerable change of emphasis and perspectives. The pilots will provide the means to do this by demonstrating the methods and approaches that can be applied and adapted elsewhere in the country. Designing the pilots is very important and the following points are highlighted for this reason.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 72 10.2.2 Purpose

The purpose of the pilots is to develop and adapt the methods used elsewhere to the conditions in China and use these as a demonstration and a learning platform for implementing the changes necessary to undertake risk management for drought.

Pilots will have common elements such as the national level requirements as well as more specific elements that are applicable to regions and provinces or landforms and land use patterns. The methods used for the early warning, monitoring and decision support will be tested and scaleable to be used across China while the more specific elements can be used in similar environments. The implications of climate change will be incorporated into these.

10.2.3 Common Elements

Drought risk management is complex and the national level, through SFCDRH has a key role to play in supporting the provinces and river basin authorities in drought management decisions. The common elements listed below must be part of all pilots to make them replicable and relevant to both the national and lower level interest.

The following common elements should be included in the pilots-

Early warning systems - to monitor climatic conditions, soil moisture levels, stored water levels and so on to provide drought early warnings for use on a national basis, although these may start in a smaller context. These need to be based on sound data and models. Incorporating climate change impacts such as declining rainfall patterns is also part of this. This is a national level responsibility. An early warning delivery mechanism through SFCDRH on a regular basis – initially this would be relevant for the specific pilot sites but this must become an integral part of the SFCDRH normal activities. This then leads to the decisions taken at the start of, during and after the drought to address water availability and control. This is a national level responsibility actioned through national and provincial agencies. Scenario analysis - to allow priorities to be established to address risk and where to target mitigation for the greatest benefit as well as where water demand management needs to be addressed. Important in this is the use of alternative water sources such as waste water recycling. Scenario analysis allows a greater understanding of the likely impacts of climate change to be factored into the decision support mechanisms and early warning to make mitigation responses faster and more effective. This is a national level responsibility but must also be used to assess priorities for provincial level administration to address specific needs. Monitoring mechanisms that can support compensation schemes – this is needed to support measures such as crop insurance and income support for farmers and small communities. Insurance and compensation schemes need to have accurate information to support claims and need to know the extent and severity of the drought conditions. This could be a national scheme that operates through the provinces or River basins. A regional capability is necessary for scale and accuracy. Integration of land use and water availability information – this information needs to be incorporated into common plans and scenario analysis so more specific activities on a local through regional scale can be investigated and planned to allow for water availability, water scarcity and mitigation for emergencies. Similarly, land use planners must take account the availability of water resources in planning for development. This is largely a provincial role for drought planning.

10.2.4 Site Selection Criteria

Scalability and representativeness – pilots must be undertaken in a range of locations that allow for scaling up of the methods and mechanisms developed and tested. For this reason they must also

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 73 represent a range of environments, scenarios and situations that will be encountered elsewhere in China. The initial pilot provinces used in this study do represent a range of environments and situations but are also constrained by provincial boundaries hence consideration should be given to other possibilities such as regional scale, river basin, mountainous and climate change susceptible areas. Willingness to Participate and Availability of Information – it is essential that information needed to undertake modelling be available within that area and the province or region is willing to actively support and participate in the pilot. If information is not readily available then a pilot will not achieve its objectives.

10.2.5 Application of Specific Emphasis in Different Pilots

Specific areas can have a different emphasis - as well as the common themes. For example Inner Mongolia is part of the upper catchment of the Yellow River and is an area that is likely to be adversely affected by climate change. It is a largely grazing area where water resources are widely dispersed. Hence a pilot in Inner Mongolia (or the upper catchment of Yellow River) would include specific aspects of climate change scenarios, grazing management based on climate/soil moisture/pasture models and regional land use applications for spatial data and land use planning. At least three specific areas need to be covered- largely grazing and rangeland where climate change is a factor; a more or less defined catchment that has mixed land use, mountains and major urban development and, one where population pressure is affecting water availability increasing susceptibility to drought making drought risk management more complex. A regional context and or a river basin context should be part of one pilot.

10.2.6 Suggested pilot sites

Upper Yellow River catchment incorporating Inner Mongolia.

Liaoning as discrete province and catchment with mountainous area and mixed agriculture, industrial and urban areas.

One other where managing drought is essential to limit a crisis where water scarcity and conflict is increasing.

10.2.7 Design of Pilots for a future Project

Designing the pilots should be the next step in the progression towards risk assessment and management.

Since the implementation of the pilots should involve agencies and institutions outside of MWR and SFCDRH, these institutions should be consulted during the design phase. Ensuring cooperation will be necessary.

Pilots should also seek to address some or most of the key constraints given in Chapter 10. It is not expected that each pilot will address all of these because some, such as institutional and systemic ones, may be longer term in nature.

Outcomes of each pilot will vary depending on the specific emphasis included and they should all support the common themes for national uniformity and replication.

Pilots should include international practices and models as well as Chinese models and practices to get the best methods for development. A set of internal and external donors should be considered that bring the breadth of expertise needed.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 74 Education and training is an integral part of pilots, especially in the later stages of implementation and must be incorporated into designs.

Pilots should include options for increasing the portfolio of alternative water sources that increase the resilience and diversification of supply under drought conditions as an outcome.

Pilots should include wider issues specific to particular problems such as grazing management in extensive grazing areas or small scale water storage and water banking in mountainous area.

Pilots should encompass the intent of the DRR and enhance the importance of drought in water management issues and undertake the following key elements of a risk management approach x Early Monitoring and Forecasting x Risk Assessment x Risk Mitigation x Demand Management x Drought Supply Enhancement x Impact Mitigation and emergency responses x Recovery, Evaluation and Contingency Planning x Stakeholder Participation and Public Education and Awareness

10.2.8 Outcomes of pilots

The final outcomes of pilots will be-

At the pilot and local level, comprehensive drought risk management plan for the target area that becomes a working document and is updated and improved over time with experience of real events.

At the national level, the outcome will be an understanding of drought risk management and how to use this approach, an early warning and monitoring mechanisms to enhance the role of SFCDRH and, a system that can be scaled up across China to address drought and climate change.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 75 11. References

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Schaw, A; Eschelbach, K & Brower, D; 2007: Hazard Mitigation and Preparedness; John Wiley and Sons USA

Shalizi, Z (2006) “Addressing China’s Growing water Shortages and Associated Social and Environmental Consequences” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3895, WB Washington USA Sheng Xiaoyou, Xing Jianming, Zeng Lixin, Thinking on Inner Mongolia’s Water Saving Society Building, Inner Mongolia Water Resources, No.1, 2006, p.67-68 SFCDRH, Training Materials for Flood Control and Drought Relief for Executive Heads," China Water Resources and Hydropower Press, 2006 Statistics Bureau of the People's Republic of China, Ministry of Civil Affairs of the People's Republic of China, Reports on China's Flood from 1949 to 1995, Beijing, China Statistics Press, 1996.

Tallaksen,L; Van Lanen, H; 2004. Developments in Water Science 48: Hydrological Drought Processes and Estimation Methods for Stream flow and Groundwater; Elsevier Amsterdam

Tan Xuming, “Socialization of Disaster Mitigation Is the Inevitable Direction of the Transfer of Flood Prevention and Disaster Mitigation: the Transfer and Evolution of the United States’ Flood Disaster Mitigation Strategies”, Journal of Natural Disasters, 1998, No. 3. Tate, E & Gustard, A (2000) Drought Definition: A Hydrological Perspective. Part 2; Drought and Drought Mitigation in Europe; (Vogt & Somma-Ed) Kluwer Academic Publishers, The Netherlands Vogt, J; Somma, F; (Ed) (2000) Drought and Drought Mitigation in Europe; Kluwer Academic Publishers, the Netherlands Wang Yuliang, “Analysis of Shanxi’s Drought and Exploration of Drought Mitigation Measures”, China’s Flood Control and Drought Relief, No. 1, 2004

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 77 Water Law of PRC (2002) State Council of PRC Water and Soil Conservation Law (1991) State Council of PRC White D. Boterill L. O’Meagher B.(2005) At the intersection of Science and Politics: Defining Exceptional Drought; from Chapter 7 Disaster Response to Risk Management –Australia’s National Drought Policy; Boterill, LC and Wilhite D (Editors) Springer Press Wilhite D. (2005) Chapter 10 p 158/159 From Disaster Response to Risk Management –Australia’s National Drought Policy; Boterill, LC and Wilhite D (Editors) Springer Press Wilhite D (2006) Investment note Number 8.1 Shaping the Future for Agricultural Investment- A Sourcebook for Investment in Agricultural Water Management; World Bank, Washington DC USA Wilhite, D; Boterill, L; Monnick, K (2005) Chapter 6 National Drought Policy: Lessons learned from Australia, South Africa and the United States. Drought and Water Crises Science Technology and Management Issues, Wilhite, D (Ed) Taylor and Francis USA Yellow River Conservancy Commission (2009) 4th International Yellow River Forum on Ecological Civilization and River Ethics, Technical Paper Abstracts; Yellow Rover Conservancy Press, Zhengzhou, China Ye Weimin, Yu Qiyang, “Analysis of Emergency Management of Water Sudden Public Incidents”, China Water, 2006, No.17 Zhang Weibing, “the Law of Shanxi Drought and Drought Regional Studies”, Journal of Natural Disasters, (recruitment, to be published) Zhao Chunming, (ed), Warning Methods of China Floods and Droughts Disaster in China in the 20th Century, the Yellow River Water Conservancy Press, December 2002 Zhu Guilin, Yang Jing, Jian Yuan, “Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Ecological Environment Construction Problems and Countermeasures in Arid and Semi-arid Areas”, Inner Mongolia Grassland Industry, No. 2, 2000, P.41

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 78 Appendix A

Drought Relief Regulations In 2009 China issued the National level Drought Relief Regulations for PRC (DRR). This could also be translated as the Drought Disaster Regulations of PRC, indicating part of the complexity of drought management and definition. The regulations are included below, as translated.

Chapter I General Provisions

Article 1 This Regulation is formulated in accordance with Water Law of the People's Republic of China, with the aim of taking precautions against drought disaster, mitigating disaster impacts, guaranteeing the domestic water supply, coordinating water supply for production and ecology, and promoting the comprehensive, harmonious and sustainable development of our society.

Article 2 Within the territory of the People's Republic of China, all activities concerning drought disaster preparedness and mitigation shall abide by this Regulation.

Drought disaster mentioned in this Regulation refers to water shortage event, which is caused by rainfall deficiency and water supply failure, and does harm to the living, production and ecology.

Article 3 The work of drought relief should observe the principles of insisting on human-oriented, emphasizing drought preparedness, combining drought preparedness with drought fighting, carrying out work in light of local conditions, taking all factors into consideration and subordinating local interests to general interests.

Article 4 The people's government at or above the county level shall incorporate the work of drought relief into the national economic and social development plan, and include the funds required into financial budgets at various levels, with the aim of carrying out the work effectively.

Article 5 The chief administrative officials of people's governments at all levels shall assume overall responsibility for the work of drought relief, with different levels and different departments responsible for part of work under a centralized command.

Article 6 The State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters shall be responsible for organizing and leading the drought relief work nationwide.

Assuming the routine duties for the State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters, the department of water administration under the State Council shall be responsible for guiding, supervising and organizing drought relief work nationwide. Other members of the State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters shall assume relevant responsibilities respectively.

Article 7 The flood control and drought relief headquarters for major rivers and lakes designated by the state, constituted by the relevant people's governments of provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government, and the administrative agencies for these rivers and lakes, shall be responsible for the drought relief work within their jurisdiction. And the administrative agencies for these rivers and lakes shall assume the routine duties of drought relief work for the flood control and drought relief headquarters for major rivers and lakes.

Article 8 Under the leadership of the flood control and drought relief headquarters at the next upper level and the people's governments at the same level, the headquarters under the local people's government at or above the county level shall be responsible for organizing and directing the drought relief work within their jurisdiction.

Assuming the routine duties for the flood control and drought relief headquarters at the same level, the department of water administration under the local people's governments at or above the county level shall be responsible for directing, supervising and organizing drought relief work within their jurisdiction.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix A | 1 Other members of the flood control and drought relief headquarters under the local people's government at or above the county level shall assume relevant responsibilities respectively.

Article 9 The people's governments at or above the county level shall strengthen the construction of water conservation infrastructures and improve the structural system to enhance the drought relief capacity.

Article 10 The people's governments at various levels and the relevant departments shall carry out education and publicity activities in various forms to raise the awareness of drought fighting and disaster mitigation in the whole society, and shall encourage and support the research, distribution, and application of advanced scientific technology related to drought relief.

Article 11 All units and individuals shall have the obligations to protect drought-fighting facilities and take part in drought-fighting activities according to law.

Article 12 Units and individuals that have made outstanding achievements in the drought relief work shall be commended and awarded according to the relevant state provisions.

Chapter II Drought disaster preparedness

Article 13 Drought relief planning shall be formulated by the department of water administration under the local people's governments at or above the county level in conjunction with other relevant departments. It shall be submitted to the people's governments at the same level for approval and the department of water administration under the people's governments at the next higher level for record.

Article 14 Drought relief planning shall be formulated in light of the needs of national economic and social development, the present situations of the comprehensive development and utilization of water resources, the basic laws and characteristics of drought disaster, the water resources available, the capacity of drought fighting, and the water demands of urban and rural inhabitants, agricultural and industrial production, and also ecology health.

Drought relief planning shall be coordinated with other planning related to the water resources development and utilization.

Drought relief planning at lower level shall be coordinated with that at the next upper level.

Article 15 Drought relief planning shall include the constructions of the drought relief organizational system, emergency water sources, emergency facilities against drought, drought-fighting materials reserves, drought-fighting service organizations, drought monitoring network and guarantee measures

Article 16 The people's governments at or above the county level shall strengthen the construction of farmland water conservancy works, rural drinking water projects, and the emergency drought-fighting projects and their supporting facilities, and also water-saving reconstruction to enhance the water supply capacity and water use efficiency.

The department of water administration under the people's governments at or above the county level shall take charge of managing and maintaining the farmland water conservancy works and rural drinking water projects to ensure their normal operation.

The local people's governments and relevant collective economic organizations in areas short of water shall build water storage projects of medium or small size, water diversion projects, water pumping projects and rainwater harvesting and utilization projects in light of the local conditions.

Article 17 The state shall encourage and support the research and application of water-saving machines and equipments, the promotion of farmland water-saving techniques, the construction of drought-fighting facilities and the development of water-saving agriculture in dry land.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix A | 2 The state shall encourage, guide and support social organizations and individuals to construct and operate drought-fighting facilities, and shall protect their legal rights and interests.

Article 18 The local people's governments at or above the county level shall guarantee the emergency water reserves to meet the domestic water demands of both urban and rural inhabitants during the drought periods.

Article 19 The local people's governments at or above the county level in areas prone to drought disasters shall reserve necessary drought-fighting materials in light of actual needs and strengthen the daily work.

Article 20 The people's governments at or above the county level shall adjust the economic structure, optimize the industrial layout, and promote rational allocation of water resources in light of the carrying capacity of water resources and environment.

Article 21 The people's governments at all levels shall raise public water saving consciousness, take water-saving measures, promote new technology and techniques, so as to establish a water- conservation society.

Article 22 The department of water administration under the people's governments at or above the county level shall be in charge of the allocation, dispatch and protection of water resources, and organizing the construction of the emergency water sources projects and rainwater harvesting facilities.

The department of water administration under the people's governments at or above the county level and other relevant departments shall be responsible for providing the flood control and drought relief headquarters with the information of hydrological conditions, precipitation and soil moisture.

Article 23 The department in charge of meteorology at all levels shall be responsible for strengthening the research in meteorological science and technology, enhancing the capacity of meteorological forecast and monitoring, and promptly providing the flood control and drought relief headquarters with meteorological drought information and other information related to drought relief.

Article 24 The department in charge of agriculture under the people's governments at or above the county level shall be responsible for reserving essential materials for agriculture, giving guidance on adjusting agricultural planting structure, developing and promoting varieties tolerant to drought, and promptly providing the flood control and drought relief headquarters with agricultural drought information.

Article 25 The department in charge of water supply shall be responsible for strengthening the construction and maintenance of water distribution network, enhancing the water supply capacity and guaranteeing domestic water demands in conjunction with relevant departments, and promptly providing the flood control and drought relief headquarters with water supply and water use information.

Article 26 The people's governments at or above the county level shall organize the relevant departments to make full use of current resources, construct and improve drought monitoring network, and strengthen the drought disaster monitoring.

The flood control and drought relief headquarters under the people's government at or above the county level shall be responsible for improving drought relief information system, promoting information sharing among member headquarters and providing policy makers with effective information.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix A | 3 Article 27 The State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters shall organize its members to formulate the national flood control and drought relief preparedness plan, and submit to the State Council for approval.

The flood control and drought relief headquarters under the local people's government at or above the county level shall organize its members to formulate the drought relief preparedness plan, which shall be submitted to the headquarters under the people's governments at the next upper level for examination and to the people's governments at the same level for approval.

0n approval, the drought relief preparedness plan must be carried out by the departments and units concerned. Any modifications to the drought relief preparedness plan shall be re-submitted for approval to the authorities that originally approved them.

Article 28 Drought relief preparedness plan shall include its enforcement agency, the responsibilities of relevant departments, early warning, drought severity classification and corresponding emergency measures, water diversion preparedness plan under urgent drought conditions, and also guarantee measures.

According to the ratio of crop acreage suffered from drought to the arable land and the ratio of people in drink water difficulty to the local population, drought disaster shall be categorized into mild drought, moderate drought, severe drought and extreme drought.

Article 29 The people's governments at the county and town level shall strengthen the construction of drought-fighting service organizations in light of actual needs. The people's governments at or above the county shall give support to drought-fighting service organizations.

The state shall encourage the social organizations and individuals to set up drought-fighting service organizations.

Article 30 The people's governments at all levels shall strengthen the supervision and inspection on the implementation of drought relief responsibility system, the formulation of drought relief preparedness plan, the construction and maintenance of drought-fighting facilities, and drought- fighting materials reserves. Once problems are detected, the people's governments at all levels shall inform the relevant departments or units promptly to take measures within a time limit.

Article 31 Water management unit shall regularly examine and maintain the drought-fighting facilities within its jurisdiction.

Article 32 It is prohibited to divert and channel water illegally. And any occupation, damage and pollution of water sources are prohibited.

It is prohibited to damage, occupy and destroy drought-fighting facilities.

Chapter III Drought fighting and disaster mitigation

Article 33 When drought disaster occurs, the flood control and drought relief headquarters under the people's government at or above the county level shall launch the drought relief preparedness plan within its jurisdiction and carry out drought fighting and disaster mitigation.

Article 34 When mild drought or moderate drought occurs, the flood control and drought relief headquarters under the local people's government at or above the county level shall, in accordance with drought relief preparedness plan, take the following measures:

(i) Utilizing the emergency water sources, digging wells or exploring springs;

(ii) Setting up temporary pumping stations, excavating water conveyance channels or diverting water from river course or lake temporarily;

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix A | 4 (iii) Making full use of unconventional water resources, including reclaimed wastewater, brackish water and seawater, and conducting artificial precipitation;

(iv) Sending water to the areas short of drinking water.

If the measures mentioned above involve other administrative regions, reports shall be submitted to the headquarters under the people's governments at the next upper level or the flood control and drought relief headquarters for major rivers and lakes for approval. If the measures mentioned above involve other departments, these relevant departments shall be informed in advance. Once the drought is alleviated, these temporary water diversion facilities shall be removed, and the relevant departments shall be informed promptly.

Article 35 When severe drought or extreme drought occurs, the State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters shall launch the national flood control and drought relief preparedness plan, and the member headquarters shall carry out their work in conformity with the respective responsibilities assigned to them by the preparedness plan.

In addition to the measures mentioned in Article 34, the flood control and drought relief headquarters under the local people's government at or above the county level shall take the following counter- measures against severe drought or extreme drought:

(i) Cutting down water supply;

(ii) Imposing restriction on water consumption by water-intensive industry;

(iii) Imposing restriction on industrial sewage discharge;

(iv) Decreasing the area or amount of agricultural water supply;

(v) Restricting the domestic water supply for residents to specific time or to specific amount.

Article 36 When drought disaster occurs, the local people's governments at or above the county level shall implement water allocation in accordance with the principle of implementing unified water diversion, ensuring key water users while considering others at the same time, guarantee the domestic water demands of urban and rural inhabitants, and balance the water supply for production and ecology.

Article 37 When drought disaster occurs, the flood control and drought relief headquarters under the people's government at or above the county level or the flood control and drought relief headquarters for major rivers and lakes shall, in accordance with the approved drought relief preparedness plan, formulate emergency water diversion scheme, and implement the unified water diversion among reservoirs, hydropower stations, sluices, dams and lakes within its jurisdiction. The relevant local people's governments, units and individuals must comply with the unified dispatch and command, and implement dispatch orders strictly.

Article 38 When drought disaster occurs, the flood control and drought relief headquarters under the people's government at or above the county level shall organize the drought-fighting service organizations to send water to the areas short of drinking water, and provide farmers with technical advice on drought fighting.

Article 39 When drought disaster occurs, the department in charge of meteorology at all levels shall be responsible for monitoring and predicting meteorological drought, and conducting artificial precipitation at the right time.

Article 40 When drought disaster occurs, the department in charge of health under the people's governments at or above the county level shall be responsible for disease prevention and control,

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix A | 5 medical care, and health supervision in drought-stricken areas. And it shall be responsible for monitoring and inspecting the conditions of drinking water sources to guarantee the safety of drinking water and prevent the occurrence of major infectious diseases caused by drought disaster.

Article 41 When drought disaster occurs, the department in charge of civil affairs under the people's governments at or above the county level shall be responsible for relief work and make good arrangements for people's living in drought-stricken areas.

Article 42 The people's governments at the town level, street offices, villager's committees and resident's committees shall propagate water-saving knowledge to villagers and residents, and assist in carrying out the drought-fighting measures.

Article 43 When drought disaster occurs, the department in charge of water supply shall keep close eye on the operation and maintenance of water distribution network, water sources and drought- fighting facilities, and utilize the emergency water sources in accordance with demands, with the aim of guaranteeing the water security in both urban and rural areas.

Article 44 Units and individuals in drought-stricken areas shall be self-conscious of saving water, abide by the decisions issued by the local people's government, be cooperative in the implementation of drought-fighting measures and take part in drought relief work actively.

Article 45 When extreme drought occurs, with its severe impacts on water security in both urban and rural areas and even on the social stability, the flood control and drought relief headquarters under the relevant people's governments of provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government shall declare the administrative area to enter emergency drought-fighting period with the approval of the people's governments at the same level, and make timely report to the State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters.

Once the extreme drought is alleviated, the flood control and drought relief headquarters under the relevant people's governments of provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government shall declare the administrative area to end emergency drought-fighting period, and make timely report to the State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters.

Article 46 During the emergency drought-fighting period, the flood control and drought relief headquarters under the relevant local people's governments shall organize units and individuals to take part in drought-fighting activities within its jurisdiction. All units and individuals must comply with the command and assume the assignment given by the flood control and drought relief headquarters under the people's governments.

Article 47 During the emergency drought-fighting period, the flood control and drought relief headquarters under the relevant local people's governments shall be entitled to expropriate materials, equipments and transport vehicles within its jurisdiction.

Article 48 The flood control and drought relief headquarters under the local people's government at or above the county level shall, in accordance with the requirements of the statistics report system of drought disaster, organize the relevant departments to report and verify the information of drought, disaster and drought-fighting, and submit it to the headquarters under the people's governments at the next higher level and the people's governments at the same level.

Article 49 The state shall adopt a unified information release system for drought relief. Drought conditions shall be verified and released by the flood control and drought relief headquarters under the people's government at or above the county level. Drought disaster information shall be verified and released by the department of water administration under the people's governments at or above the county level in conjunction with the department of civil affairs at the same level. Agricultural drought

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix A | 6 information shall be released by the department in charge of agriculture under the people's governments at or above the county level. Meteorological information related to drought relief shall be released by the department in charge of meteorology.

Medias like newspaper, radio, television and the Internet shall publish or broadcast information related to drought relief promptly, with the name of the releasing agency and releasing time clearly indicated.

Article 50 The people's governments at various levels shall establish and improve the funding mechanism in accordance with the economic and social development level as well as the drought mitigation requirement, and shall allocate essential funds in financial budget at the same level for drought relief.

Article 51 Water disputes arising from drought-fighting activities shall be handled in accordance with the Water Law of the People‘s Republic of China.

Chapter IV Disaster recovery

Article 52 Once the drought is alleviated, the people's governments at all levels and relevant departments in charge shall assist the affected people in post-disaster restoration and self-rescue.

Article 53 Once the drought is alleviated, the department of water administration under the people's governments at or above the county level shall examine and evaluate the conditions of water conservancy projects, and promptly restore the damaged projects. The relevant departments in charge under the people's governments at or above the county level shall incorporate the damaged water conservancy projects into the annual restoration and construction plans with priority.

Article 54 Once the drought is alleviated, the flood control and drought relief headquarters under the local people's government at or above the county level shall return the materials, equipments and transport vehicles, etc., which have been appropriated during the emergency drought-fighting period, and compensate for the appropriation according to the relevant provisions.

Article 55 Once the drought is alleviated, the flood control and drought relief headquarters under the people's government at or above the county level shall organize the relevant departments to analyse and assess the disaster impacts, disaster losses and drought-fighting effects. The relevant departments and units shall be cooperative to the flood control and drought relief headquarters under the people's government at the same level, and make report without any false information or deliberate concealment of actual conditions.

The flood control and drought relief headquarters under the people's government at or above the county level could also entrust the units that are eligible to make professional disaster assessment with disaster analysis and assessment.

Article 56 Funds and materials set aside for drought fighting must be used for specified purposes only. No unit or individual may intercept, occupy, appropriate or share out these funds and materials.

The financial departments and auditing organs at all levels shall strengthen the supervision and inspection by auditing the use of these funds and materials.

Article 57 The state encourages the establishment and promotion of drought disaster insurance system in drought-prone areas.

Chapter V Legal Liability

Article 58 Whoever commits any of the following acts shall be ordered to correct by the unit he belongs to, the department in charge at the next upper level or the supervisory authorities. Administrative

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix A | 7 sanctions shall be given to the personnel directly in charge and other directly responsible personnel. If the act has constituted a crime, criminal liability shall be investigated according to lawˊ i. Refusing to assume the mission of drought fighting and disaster mitigation; ii. Releasing information about drought relief without authorization; iii. Making false report or deliberately concealing information about drought conditions and disaster; iv. Refusing to implement drought relief preparedness plan, water diversion plan or emergency water diversion scheme during the emergency drought-fighting period; v. Refusing to remove the temporary water diversion and interception facilities after the alleviation of drought; vi. Abusing power, engaging in malpractices for personal gains or neglecting duties.

Article 59 Whoever intercepts, occupies, appropriates or shares out funds and materials set aside for drought fighting shall be given legal or administrative sanctions according to the relevant financial penalties. If a crime has been committed criminal liability shall be investigated according to lawˊ

Article 60 The water project administration entities and other operators of reservoirs, hydropower stations, sluices, dams, etc., who reject to comply with the unified diversion of water, shall be ordered and warned to correct their acts by the department of water administration under the people's government at or above the county level or the administrative agencies for rivers and lakes. If these entities and operators refuse to correct their acts, orders shall be forcibly executed, and they shall be concurrently fined not less than RMB 10, 000 yuan and not more than RMB 50, 000 yuan.

Article 61 Whoever occupies or damages water sources and drought-fighting facilities, shall be ordered by the department of water administration under the people's government at or above the county level or the administrative agencies for rivers and lakes to stop the illegal acts and take remedies, and be concurrently fined not less than RMB 10, 000 yuan and not more than RMB 50, 000 yuan. If damage has been caused, the violator shall bear civil liability according to law. If an administrative penalty should be given, the Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Administrative Penalties for Public Security shall apply. If a crime has been constituted, criminal liability shall be investigated according to lawˊ

Article 62 Whoever seizes, channels or diverts water illegally, or loots drought-fighting materials, shall be ordered and warned to stop the illegal acts by the department of water administration under the people's government at or above the county level or the administrative agencies for rivers and lakes. If an administrative penalty should be given, the Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Administrative Penalties for Public Security shall apply. If a crime has been constituted, criminal liability shall be investigated according to lawˊ

Article 63 Whoever obstructs or threatens any functionary of the flood control and drought relief headquarters, department of water administration or the watershed authorities who performs duties according to law, shall be ordered and warned to make correction by the department of water administration under the people's government at or above the county level or the administrative agencies for rivers and lakes. If an administrative penalty should be given, the Regulations on Administrative Penalties for Public Security of the People‘s Republic of China shall apply. If a crime has been constituted, criminal liability shall be investigated according to lawˊ

Chapter VI Supplementary Provisions

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix A | 8 Article 64 The People's Liberation Army and the People's Armed Police Forces shall take part in drought fighting and disaster mitigation in accordance with the Regulations for army to participate in emergency rescue and disaster relief.

Article 65 This Regulation shall come into force as of the date of promulgation.

These allow considerable scope for interpretation and implementation. They also allow scope for increasing application of good science and integration at the national level of information and decision support tools to assist Provincial and lower levels to work with drought situations and improve mechanisms for dealing with drought. How to implement at different levels is a major challenge and the move towards risk management within the disaster relief context remains difficult because of the existing perceptions of disaster relief. The emphasis on mitigation and preparedness needs to be supported at all levels to be effectively implemented in practical ways.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix A | 9 Appendix B

Standard of Classification for Drought 1. Drought Indicators and Classification 1.1 Agricultural drought indicators and grades

Agricultural drought indicators include relative soil moisture, percentage of precipitation anomalies, consecutive days without rain, irrigation water deficiency ratio, and consecutive days without water in rice-field. The application scope of each indicator is shown in Table 1.

Table 1 Application scope of agricultural drought indicators

Irrigated agricultural area Types of agriculture Rain-fed agricultural Irrigated field Paddy field area

Relative soil moisture

Irrigation water Percentage of Relative soil deficiency ratio Appropriate precipitation moisture indicators anomalies Consecutive days Irrigation water without water in deficiency ratio rice-field Consecutive days without rain

When assessing the agricultural drought by the relative soil moisture, it should comply with the following requirements:

The relative moisture of 0-40cm-deep soil should be adopted as the indicator for assessing drought. The relative soil moisture should be calculated with the formula 1: T W u100% (1) Fc In the formula W —— relative soil moisture (%);

T —— soil water content (%);

Fc —— water holding capacity (%). The drought classification is presented in Table 2. Table 2 Drought classification in accordance with relative soil moisture Unit: %

Slight Moderate Severe Extremely Drought classification drought drought drought severe drought

relative soil moisture W 50˘Wİ60 40˘Wİ50 30˘Wİ40 Wİ30

When assessing the agricultural drought by percentage of precipitation anomalies, it should comply with the following rules:

The percentage of precipitation anomalies should be calculated with the formula 2: P  P D p u100% (2) P in the formula D p — percentage of precipitation anomalies (%);

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix B | 1 P — precipitation during the calculation period (mm)˗

P —The multi-year average precipitation (mm) should use the average of the past thirty years.

The drought classification is shown in Table 3.

Table 3 Drought classification in accordance with percentage of precipitation anomalies Unit: %

Percentage of precipitation anomalies Dp Drought classification Monthly Quarterly Annual

-60˘Dp Slight drought -50˘Dpİ-25 -30˘Dpİ-15 İ-40

-80˘Dp Moderate drought -70˘Dpİ-50 -40˘Dpİ-30 İ-60

-95˘Dp Severe drought -80˘Dp”-70 -45˘Dpİ-40 İ-80

Extremely severe Dpİ-95 Dpİ-80 Dpİ-45 drought

When assessing the agricultural drought by consecutive days without water in rice-field, it should observe the following requirements:

(1) Consecutive days without water in rice-field refer to the days without sufficient rainfall.

(2) The drought classification is presented in Table 4DŽ

Table 4 Drought classification in accordance with consecutive days without water in rice-field Unit: d

Consecutive days without water in rice-field in different drought classifications Season Region Moderat Extremely Slight Severe e severe drought drought drought drought

̚ ̚ ̚ Spring (Mar.-May) North 15 30 31 50 51 75 >75

Autumn (Sept.-Nov.) South 10̚20 21̚45 46̚60 >60

Summer (June- North 10̚20 21̚30 31̚50 >50 August) South 5̚10 11̚15 16̚30 >30 North 20̚30 31̚60 61̚80 >80 Winter (Dec.-Feb.) South 15̚25 26̚45 46̚70 >70 When assessing the agricultural drought by irrigation water deficiency ratio, it should be complied with the following rules:

(1 ) The irrigation water deficiency ratio should be calculated with the formula 3:

Wr W Dw u100% (3) Wr

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix A | 2 in the formula Dw —irrigation water deficiency ratio (%);

Wr —actual irrigation water demand during the calculation period (m3); W —available or actual provision of irrigation water over the same period (m3).

(2) The drought classification is shown in Table 5.

Table 5 Drought classification in accordance with irrigation water deficiency ratio Unit: %

Extremely Slight Moderate Severe Drought classification severe drought drought drought drought

Irrigation water deficiency 550 ratio Dw

When assessing the agricultural drought by consecutive days without water in rice-field, the drought is classified as shown in Table 6.

Table 6 Drought classification in accordance with consecutive days without water in rice-field Unit: d

Drought classification Extremely Slight Moderate Severe severe drought drought drought drought

Spring & Consecutive 7̚10 11̚20 21̚30 >30 Autumn days without South water in rice- Summer 5̚7 8̚12 13̚20 >20 field North 7̚10 11̚15 16̚25 >25

1.2 Pasture drought indicators and classifications

The pasture drought should be assessed by percentage of precipitation anomalies and consecutive days without water in rice-field.

When assessing pasture drought by percentage of precipitation anomalies, it should be complied with the following rules:

1 )The percentage of precipitation anomalies should be calculated in accordance with the formula 3.

2) The drought classification is presented in Table 7.

Table 7 Drought classification in accordance with percentage of precipitation anomalies Unit: %

Percentage of precipitation anomalies Dp Drought classification Monthly Quarterly Annual

Slight drought -70˘Dpİ-50 -60˘Dpİ-30 -40˘Dpİ-20

Moderate drought -85˘Dpİ-70 -80˘Dpİ-60 -50˘Dpİ-40

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix A | 3 Severe drought -95˘Dpİ-85 -90˘Dpİ-80 -60˘Dpİ-50

Extremely severe drought Dpİ-95 Dpİ-90 Dpİ-60

When assessing the pasture drought by consecutive days without water in rice-field, the drought classification is shown as Table 8.

Table 8 Drought classification in accordance with consecutive dry days Unit: d

Consecutive days without water in rice-field in different drought classification Season Slight Moderate Severe Extremely drought drought drought severe drought

Spring (Mar.-May) 30̚50 51̚70 71̚80 >80 Autumn (Sept.-Nov.)

Summer (Jun.-Aug.) 20̚30 31̚50 51̚70 >70

1.3 Urban drought indicators and classifications

The urban drought indicator should be indicated by urban water shortage.

Urban water shortage should be calculated with the formula 4.

Qz  Qs Pg u100% (4) Qz in the formula Pg —urban water deficiency ratio˄%˅;

Qz —normal daily water supply in urban areas (m3);

Qs —actual daily water supply in urban areas due to drought (m3). The urban drought classification is shown in Table 9.

Table 9 Urban drought classification Unit: %

Drought classification Slight Moderate Severe Extremely drought drought drought severe drought

Water deficiency ratio 5˘Pg İ 10˘Pg İ 20˘Pg caused by urban drought Pg !30 10 20 İ 30 Pg

1.4 Assessment indicators for potable water deficiency by drought

Potable water deficiency by drought refers to temporary drinking water shortage due to drought encountered with urban and rural residents, and it does not include the long-term potable water shortage.

Potable water shortage by drought must satisfy both Condition 1 and Condition 2 in Table 10, and either of the two items of Condition 1.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix A | 4 Table 10 Criteria on potable water shortage by drought

Condition Criteria

Changed due to Watering places drought Condition 1 ˘ Basic daily water North 20 demand (L/person·d) South ˘35

Duration of the drinking water Condition 2 !15 problem caused by drought (d)

2. Regional drought indicators and classification 2.1 Regional agricultural drought indicators and classification

The regional agricultural drought should be assessed by the regional agricultural drought index.

The regional agricultural drought index should be calculated with the formula 4: 4 I a ¦ Ai u Bi (5) i 1 in the formula I a —regional agricultural drought index (the range of index is 0~4); i —crops drought grades (i=1ǃ2ǃ3ǃ4 represents slight drought, moderate drought, severe drought and extremely severe drought respectively);

Ai —under any drought grade, the ratio of crops area to the total farming land (%);

Bi —weight coefficient of different drought grades (the weight coefficient of slight drought, moderate drought, severe drought and extremely severe drought is 1, 2, 3, 4 respectively).

The regional agricultural drought is classified as shown in Table 11.

Table 11 Regional agricultural drought classification

Regional agricultural drought index in different drought

grades Ia

Administrative level Extremely Slight Moderate Severe severe drought drought drought drought

National 0.05”Ia<0.1 0.1”Ia<0.2 0.2”Ia<0.3 0.3”Iaİ4

Provinces (Autonomous 0.1”Ia<0.5 0.5”Ia<0.9 0.9”Ia<1.5 1.5”Iaİ4 regions and municipalities)

Prefectures (cities) 0.1”Ia<0.6 0.6”Ia<1.2 1.2”Ia<2.1 2.1”Iaİ4

Counties (districts) 0.1”Ia<0.7 0.7”Ia<1.2 1.2”Ia<2.2 2.2”Iaİ4

The formula for calculating the regional agricultural drought index is shown in Table A-1 in Annex A.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix B | 5 2.2 Regional pasture drought index and classification

The regional pasture drought should be assessed by the regional pasture drought index.

The regional pasture drought index should be calculated with the formula of 5: 4 I p ¦ Pi u Bi (6) i 1 in the formula I p —regional pasture drought index (the index range is 0~4); i —pasture drought grades (i=1, 2, 3, 4 represents slight drought, moderate drought, severe drought and extremely severe drought respectively);

Pi —Under any drought grade, the ratio of the grassland area to the total area of grassland (%);

Bi —the weight coefficient of different drought grade (the weight coefficient of slight drought, moderate drought, severe drought and extremely severe drought is 1, 2, 3, 4 respectively).

Regional pasture drought classification is shown in Table 12.

Table 12 Regional pasture drought classification

Regional pasture drought index of different drought

grades Ip

Administrative level Extremely Slight Moderate Severe severe drought drought drought drought

Provinces

(autonomous regions 0.1”Ip<0.5 0.5”Ip<0.9 0.9”Ip<1.5 1.5”Ipİ4 and municipalities)

Prefectures (cities) 0.1”Ip<0.6 0.6”Ip<1.2 1.2”Ip<2.1 2.1”Ipİ4

Counties (districts) 0.1”Ip<0.7 0.7”Ip<1.2 1.2”Ip<2.2 2.2”Ipİ4

The regional pasture drought index should be calculated according to the formula in Table A-2 in Annex A. 2.3 Indicators and classification of regional potable water deficiency caused by drought

The national potable water shortage by drought should be assessed by the total population affected by drinking water deficiency, and its classification is shown in Table 13.

Table 13 Drought classification in accordance with regional potable water deficiency caused by drought

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix A | 6 Provinces (autonomous Prefectures Counties Administrative level National regions and (cities) (districts) municipalities)

Affected people (ten thousand 500~1500 50~100 — — people˅ Slight deficiency The ratio of the affected people — 5~10 10~15 15~20 to the total local population (%)

Affected people (ten thousand 1500~3500 100~400 — — people) Moderate deficiency The ratio of the affected people — 10~15 15~20 20~30 to the total local population (%)

Affected people (ten thousand 3500~5000 400~600 — — people) Severe deficiency The ratio of the affected people — 15~20 20~30 30~40 to the total local population (%)

Affected people •5000 •600 — — (ten thousand) Extremely The ratio of the difficult affected people — •20 •30 •40 to the total local population (%)

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix B | 7 The provincial (autonomous regions’ and municipalities’) potable water deficiency caused by drought can be assessed either by the total affected population or the ratio of the affected people to the total local population, whichever higher grade is used for the potable water deficiency level of the concerning provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities. The classification of drinking water deficiency is shown in Table 13.

The potable water deficiency caused by drought in prefectures (cities) and counties (districts) should be assessed by the ratio of the affected people to the total local population. It is classified as shown in Table 13.

The regional potable water deficiency should be calculated with the formula in Table A-3 in Annex A. 2.4 Agricultural and pasture comprehensive drought

The agricultural and pasture comprehensive drought should be assessed by the agricultural and pasture comprehensive drought index.

The agricultural and pasture comprehensive index should be calculated with the formula 6:

I ap D u I a  E u I p (7)˅ in the formula I ap —the agricultural and pasture comprehensive index (the index range is 0-4); D —the ratio of the agricultural output to the total output of both agriculture and animal husbandry (%);

I a —regional agricultural drought index, which should be calculated with the formula 4; E —the ratio of the output of animal husbandry to the total output of both agriculture and animal husbandry (%),D  E 1 ;

I p —regional pasture drought index, which should be calculated with the formula 5. The classification of the agricultural and pasture drought is shown in Table 14.

Table 14 Agricultural and pasture comprehensive drought classification

Agricultural and pasture comprehensive drought index

in different drought classifications Iap

Administrative level Extremely Slight Moderate Severe severe drought drought drought drought

Provinces (autonomous 0.1”Iap<0.5 0.5”Iap<0.9 0.9”Iap<1.5 1.5”Iapİ4 regions and municipalities)

Prefecture (cities) 0.1”Iap<0.6 0.6”Iap<1.2 1.2”Iap<2.1 2.1”Iapİ4

Counties (districts) 0.1”Iap<0.7 0.7”Iap<1.2 1.2”Iap<2.2 2.2”Iapİ4

2.5 Regional comprehensive drought

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix B | 8 Regional comprehensive drought refers to the overall water shortage in agriculture, pasture and urban and rural residents caused by drought in a region.

By comparing the regional agricultural drought, pasture drought or the comprehensive agricultural and pasture drought with the potable water deficiency caused by drought in a region, whichever is higher in grade is regarded as the comprehensive drought level in the region. 3. Drought frequency 3.1 Identification of drought process

Drought process refers to the process from drought emergence to drought development until drought disappearance, including four basic elements: the starting date, the ending date and its duration as well as the extent of the most severe drought.

The starting date, ending date and duration of a drought should be determined by the regional agricultural drought index (see Formula 4) and the regional pasture drought index (see Formula 5). Specifically, it should comply with the following rules:

1) When the index is more than 0.1 for over 10 days, it is regarded as the beginning of a drought process. The date when the index is more than 0.1 is taken as the starting date of a drought.

2) The last day when the index is less than 0.1 is regarded as the ending date of a drought, on the condition that such situation has last at least for over seven days.

3) The duration of a drought refers to the period from the emergence to the closure of a drought.

The assessment indicator for the intensity of the most severe drought includes the index of the most severe regional agricultural, pasture and the agricultural and pasture comprehensive drought, the largest area affected by drought, and the largest population affected by the potable water shortage by drought. This indicator is used to evaluate the greatest impact caused by drought from its beginning to a certain period during the drought. 3.2 Drought frequency

The drought frequency should be assessed by the regional drought index or the regional pasture drought index or the agricultural and pasture comprehensive index.

The drought frequency curve should be drawn in accordance with the following steps:

1) For a given region, the maximum index for the regional agricultural drought or the regional pasture drought or the agricultural and pasture comprehensive drought should be calculated based on the collated data on historical droughts, with the formula of regional agricultural drought (See Formula 4) or the formula of regional pasture drought (See Formula 5) or the formula of agricultural and pasture comprehensive drought (See Formula 6).

2) Arrange the maximum drought index of all concerning years in the past by descending order, and calculate the drought frequency with the formula 7. m P i u100% (8) i n 1 in the formula Pi —drought frequency (%); i —serial number of years (times) with drought;

n —the number of years in count; mi—Number m in the descending orderˈe.g. the item whose drought index is equal to or greater than that of Year I, among the years included.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix B | 9 3) Plot the empirical data on the frequency grid paper (the vertical axis for the drought index value, and the abscissa for the corresponding drought frequency), and draw frequency curves with mesh estimating curve-fitting method.

Based on the information on the most severe drought or a certain period of drought during a dry period, work out the maximum index for the regional agricultural drought or the regional pasture drought or the agricultural and pasture comprehensive drought. With the maximum index, identify the drought frequency of the drought or a certain period of drought in the drought frequency curves.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix B | 10 Annex A Sample Table for Drought Monitoring

Table A-1 Province (City, County) Regional Agricultural Drought Monitoring Sheet

Total Affected cultivated land (10,000 mu) Date area of Of which forming Total Serial (Year- land affected No. Month- Extremely area by Slight Moderate Severe Date) (10,000 severe drought drought drought drought mu) drought

1 2008-08- 15

2 2008-09- 15

3 …

Table A-2 Province (City, County) Regional Pasture Drought Monitoring Sheet

Affected grassland (10,000 mu) Total Date area of Total area Of which Serial (Year- grassland of affected No. Month- Extremely (10,000 grassland Slight Moderate Severe Date) severe mu) by drought drought drought drought drought

1 2008- 08-15

2 2008- 09-15

3 …

Table A-3 Province (City, County) Potable Water Deficiency by Drought Monitoring Sheet

Affected population by potable water Date Total population Serial No. (Year-Month- deficiency by Notes Date) (10,000 people) drought (10,000 people)

1 2008-8-15

2 2008-9-15

3 …

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix B | 11 Appendix C

Nonstructural Measures for Drought

Management in China The following framework is intended to offer a comprehensive outline of non structural measures that would contribute to more effective drought management in China. Some of these already are being implemented in isolated locations or conditions, but not as part of a concerted risk management approach. Of course, not all of the measures are appropriate for all areas (e.g. urban or agriculture.) Also, the best way to adapt measures for successful implementation depends on the physical, social, cultural and economic characteristics of a specific place.

Policies, Regulations, Legal Requirements

 Drought Preparedness Planning

 Water Conservation Requirements/Water Waste Restrictions

 Water Rights Allocation Laws and Permits

 Plumbing/Building Regulations for Water Savings

 Water Metering Requirements

 Water Conservation Pricing

 Land Use Development and Water Supply Requirements

 Authority for Regulatory Enforcement

 Process and Authority for Declaring Drought Emergency

 Emergency Assistance Program

 Inter-Provincial and Interregional Coordination Systems

 Water Rights Conflict Resolution Framework

Planning for Drought

 Water Reliability Planning (long-term supply and demand)

 Data Analysis for Dry Year Water Supply and Demand

 Urban Water Management Plans

 Agricultural and Pasture Water Management Plans

 Drought Preparedness Plans (pre-drought risk management)

1. Urban Plan

2. Agriculture Plan

3. Range and Pasture Plan

4. Defined “Trigger” Mechanisms (e.g. reservoir levels)

5. Detailed Action Program Based on Triggers

 Drought Impact Mitigation Plan (relief services)

 Water Transfer Agreements and Mechanisms

 Detailed Plans for Voluntary and Mandatory Reductions

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix C | 1 Drought Forecasting System, Organization and Processes

 Drought Forecasting System (onset of wet season)

1. Definition and Criteria for Drought

2. Criteria and Methodology: Data Collection and Analysis

3. System of Precipitation Monitoring Stations

x Snow Pack and Water Content Measurement

x Precipitation Projections

x River Flow Projections

x Soil Moisture Measurement

x Reservoir Levels

4. Incorporation of Climate Change Models

 Data Exchange System: National, Regional and Local Agencies

 Up-to-Date Coordination Mechanisms

 Establishment of Drought Task Force – Operations Center

 Water Bank for Water Transfers and Exchanges

 Early Dry Year Warning Notification System (during wet season)

1 For Water Supply Companies and Stakeholders

2 Public Workshops and Media

 Continuous Data Monitoring and Forecast Modification

 Continuous Update in Criteria, Data and Models

 Technical Assistance to Local Areas for Drought Forecasting

Nonstructural Water Saving Measures and Practices

 Water Supplier and Utility Operations

1 Water Savings Program Implementation

2 Water Conservation Coordinator

3 Water System Loss Reduction

4 On-Site Water Audits and Assistance to Customers

5 Internal Building Water Saving Measures

6 Customer Water Saver Incentive Programs

7 Enforcement of Water Waste Prohibitions

8 Review of New Building Design and Permit Approval

9 Monitoring and Reporting of Results of Measures

 Residential Water-Saving Measures

1 Ultra-low flush toilets: existing housing (E); new (N)

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix C | 2 2 Low flow faucets and showerheads: existing (E); new (N)

3 High efficiency washing machines: existing (E), new (N)

4 Restrictions on potable water for plants, gardens, pools

5 Water Meters for each apartment and house

6 Meter Testing, Repair and Replacement Program

7 Volumetric Water Pricing

8 Water Bills paid by households (not by enterprises)

9 Public Information Campaigns

10 School Education Programs

11 Customer Leak Detection and Repair

12 Water Efficient Design Requirements for New Buildings

13 Non-Potable Water for Landscaping (grey water, recycled)

14 Replacement of Water-Cooled Air Conditioning for Apartment Buildings

15 Special Assistance for Poor and Rural Communities

 Commercial, Industrial, Institutional Water-Savings Measures

1 Industrial Process Water Reduction

2 Water-Efficient Commercial Dishwashers

3 On-Site Recycling Systems

4 High Efficiency Toilets and Urinals

5 Water Efficient Commercial Clothes Washers

6 Cooling Tower Controllers

7 Spray Nozzles

8 Steamers for Medical Equipment

9 Dry Vacuum Pumps

10 High-Rise Building Treatment and Recycling Systems

11 Rooftop Stormwater Collection and Filtration

12 Water Use Off-Set Regulations for New Buildings

13 Workshops for Commercial, Industrial and Public Sectors

 Agriculture Measures

1 Delay planting of new permanent crops

2 Irrigation Management Information System

3 On-Farm Assistance to improve irrigation practices, uniform distribution, scheduling, crop selection, soil monitoring

4 Financial Assistance and Incentives

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix C | 3 5 Crop Insurance Program

6 Land removed from production

7 Crop Shifting

8 Efficient irrigation technologies

9 Deficit Irrigation

10 Irrigation Recycling and Reuse

11 Irrigation ditch and seepage reduction improvements

12 Evaluating crop evapo-transpiration rates

13 Workshops for Farmers

14 Monitoring Excess Irrigation

 Rangeland and Pasture Measures

1 Pre-Drought Management to Protect Range Condition

x Methods to Balance Livestock with Forage

x Measures to Prevent Overgrazing

2 Drought Management Plan

x Rainfall Predictions and Vegetation Condition

x Monitoring Forage Production

‚ Changes in Forage Production and Scheduling

x Plans and Timing for Relocation or Reduction of Herd

‚ Criteria for Herd Reduction

‚ Emergency Feed and Water

3 Drought Vegetation Recovery Plan of Action

4 On-site Assistance for Herders

Impact Monitoring and Mitigation Plan

 Method for monitoring and measuring drought-related impacts

 Programs for Loss Mitigation and Compensation

1 Coordinated Response Framework

2 Criteria for Technical and Financial assistance

x Crop Losses

x Emergency Drinking Water Supplies

x Livestock Needs

x Public Health

x Conservation assistance

x Income, employment and housing

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix C | 4 x Food, clothing, health and schools

x Assistance to Poor Communities

Drought Recovery and Contingency Plan

 Post-drought evaluation

1 Updated assessment of damages and losses

 Replenishment of Water Supplies

 Compensation and assistance for social, economic and resource recovery

 Planning for another dry year

2 Lessons learned

3 Continued forecasting

4 Improved methods

5 Increased conservation and efficiency

6 Diversification of water supplies

x Water reuse

x Rain/stormwater catchments

x Groundwater banking

x Desalination

x Local Ponds and Storage

7 Improved Flexibility

x Integrated Regional Management Agreements

x Increased Reservoir Operational Efficiency

x Conjunctive Use of Ground and Surface Water

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix C | 5 Appendix D

Drought Environment Report 1. Water Pollution In China

The scarcity of water in China is aggravated by extensive pollution from industrial, domestic, and agricultural sources. Over the past three decades, despite great efforts to control it, water pollution has increased, spreading from inland water bodies to inshore coastal areas; and from surface waters to groundwater resources. Total wastewater discharges have steadily risen to 57.19 billion tons in 2008, with COD (chemical, oxygen and demand) discharges and NH3-N (ammonia) discharges amounting to 13.20 million and 1.27 million tons, respectively (MEP 2008). It was not until 2007 that the rising trend of water pollution discharges began to show a sign of reverse, as total 2007 COD discharges were reported to be 3.14 percent less than in 2006. However, the water pollution situation is still very serious due to the high volume of untreated wastewater discharged to the environment.

Table 1 Wastewater and Pollution Discharge by Total China, 2001-2008

Waste Water Discharged Chemical Oxygen Demand Ammonia Nitrogen(thousand ( million tons) (COD) (thousand tons) tons)

Total Industrial Household Total Industrial Household Total Industrial Household Volume Volume Volume

2001 43300 20270 23030 14048 6075 7973 1252 413 839

2002 43950 20720 23200 13669 5840 7829 1288 421 867

2003 46000 21240 24760 13336 5119 8217 1297 404 893

2004 48240 22110 26130 13392 5097 8295 1330 422 908

2005 52450 24310 28140 14142 5547 8594 1498 525 973

2006 53680 24020 29660 14282 5423 8859 1413 425 988

2007 55680 24660 31020 13818 5110 8708 1324 341 983

2008 57190 24190 33000 13207 4576 8631 1270 297 973

Growth 2.7% -1.9% 6.4% -4.4% -10.5% -0.9% -4.1% -12.9% -1.0% Rate

Growth Rate = compared 2008 to 2007

Table1 (cont’ed) Discharges of Key Water Pollutants by the Selected Provinces and Region

Waste Water Discharged COD (thousand tons) Ammonia Nitrogen(thousand ( million tons) tons)

Total Industrial Household Total Industrial Household Total Industrial Household Volume Volume Volume

Inner Mongolia Region

2005 560 250 310 297 155 142 50 19 31

2006 620 280 340 298 136 162 38 7 31

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix D | 1 2007 600 250 350 288 131 157 33 3 30

2008 700 290 410 280 130 150 34 3 31

Liaoning Province

2005 2190 1050 1140 644 268 376 91 33 57

2006 2130 950 1180 641 261 380 74 15 59

2007 2210 950 1260 628 258 370 69 10 58

2008 2120 830 1290 584 236 348 64 10 55

Anhui Province

2005 1570 630 930 444 136 307 53 19 34

2006 1660 700 960 456 142 314 59 22 37

2007 1750 740 1020 451 140 311 53 24 29

2008 1690 670 1020 433 127 306 48 15 33

Following a decreasing trend during the period from 1995 to 2000, industrial wastewater emissions increased annually during 2000to 2005. This increase is attributed to an increase in wastewater discharges from township and village industrial enterprises that offset a decrease in wastewater discharges from county and above-county-owned enterprises. Although the proportion of total wastewater discharges that meet pollution emission standards is increasing, wastewater from township and village industrial enterprises is still largely discharged without treatment. Industrial COD discharges, which decreased in 2001 to 2004 due to an increasing share of industrial wastewater that is treated (from 85.2 percent in 2001 to 90.7 percent in 2004), also increased slightly in 2005 (Figure 2.3) (China Statistical Yearbook 2006). However, with the rapid growth of domestic and non-point pollution discharges, the share of industrial wastewater in total water pollution has decreased. As of 2005, only 11 percent of organic pollutants (biochemical oxygen demand [BOD]), 4 percent of total nitrogen (TN), and 2 percent of total phosphorus (TP) pollution in China were attributable to industrial wastewater discharges (World Bank 2006a).

Domestic wastewater discharges have surpassed industrial discharges since 1999, and have become the most important pollution source. A major contributing factor is that only 56 percent of municipal sewage is treated in some form. With lagging growth in wastewater treatment facilities, including sewerage, about 20 billion m3 of untreated wastewater per year is directly discharged into water bodies. In 2005, domestic sources accounted for 52 percent of BOD, 69 percent of TN, and 2 percent of TP discharges.

Nonpoint pollution (NPP), primarily related to agricultural activities such as fertilizer and pesticide run- off from farmland and infiltration of livestock waste, has long been out of control and is becoming an increasingly important source. Over the 1978 to 2004 period, fertilizer application in China increased fivefold, and pig, sheep, and

“other livestock” (including cattle, horses, donkeys, and camels) production increased by 54 percent, 86 percent, and 62 percent, respectively. These trends contributed greatly increased nutrient flows into water bodies, and accelerated the eutrophication of many of China’s lakes, such as Dianchi, Lake Chao, and Lake Tai (World Bank

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix D | 2 2006a). In 2005, nonpoint pollution accounted for an estimated 37 percent of BOD, 27 percent of TN, and 45 percent of TP discharges in China.

As a result of continuing pollution, the water quality of most of China’s water bodies has been extensively degraded. In 2008, of all 746 monitored river sections, 47.7 percent met the grades I to III surface water quality standard (that is, water that is safe for human consumption after treatment), 29.2 percent met the grades IV to V standards (that is, safe for industrial and irrigation use), and 23.1 percent failed to meet grade V+ (that is, unsafe for any use).

In 2008, of 28 major monitored lakes and reservoirs, only 21.4 percent met the grades I to III standard, 39.3 percent met grades IV to V standards, and 39.3 percent failed to meet grade V+ (MEP 2008). Among these major monitored lakes, Lake Chao only met the V standards, and Lake Tai and Dianchi were failed to meet grade V+. The domestic pollution indexes are Total Nitrogen and Total Phosphorous. Water quality in China’s lakes and reservoirs is characterized by accelerated eutrophication as a result of excessive nutrient loads from both point and nonpoint sources. In general, the water quality of large size reservoirs is better than the large fresh water lakes and the urban inner lakes.

Overall, 57.5 percent of the 40 main freshwater lakes including Lake Tai, Lake Chao, and Dianchi have become eutrophic and hypotrophic.

The National 2 / 3 of the lakes and 1 / 3 of the reservoir have been classified as having a rich nutrient status. Water pollution exacerbates the severity of water shortage. Water pollution formation from the rapid development of emissions has overtaken the pollutant carrying capacity of rivers, lakes and reservoirs, and the rapid increase in emissions and economic development stages are closely related.

Table 2 Current (2008) Trophic Level of Lakes and reservoirs in China

Lakes Permanganate Total Total Trophic Water index Phosphorous Nitrogen State Quality ˄mg/L˅ Grades (mg/L) (mg/L)

Tai (Jiangsu) 4.8 0.1 3.36 Hypertrophic č+

Dianchi(Yunnan) 10.2 0.54 6.93 Hypertrophic V+

Chao(Anhui) 5.2 0.15 1.97 Eutrophic V

Baiyangdia(Hebei) 9.1 0.21 4.36 Hypertrophic V+

Daben(Inner 21.1 0.25 1.89 Hypertrophic V+ Mongolia)

Jinbo(Jilin) 6.1 0.03 0.27 Mesotrophic V

Bositeng(Inner 4.9 0.02 0.82 Eutrophic IIi Mongolia)

Hongze(jiangsu 3.2 0.154 2.17 Eutrophic V+

Nansi(Sandong) 5.2 0.09 1.48 Eutrophic IV

Dongting(Hubei) 2.8 0.14 1.10 Mesotrophic V

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix D | 3 Poyang(Jiangxi 2.9 0.07 1.26 Mesotrophic IV

Erhai(Yunnan) 2.6 0.02 0.40 Mesotrophic II

Urban Lakes

Dong(Wuhan) 6.7 0.21 2.01 Eutrophic V+

Daming(Jinan) 2.4 0.07 5.29 Eutrophic V+

Xuanwu(Nanjing 3.6 0.12 2.44 Eutrophic V+

Xi(Hangzhou) 3.1 0.05 2.10 Eutrophic V+

Kunming(Beijing) 3.8 0.06 1.19 Mesotrophic IV

Large Reservoirs

Dahuofanf(Liaoling) 2.1 0.02 1.80 Mesotrophic V

Yuqiao(Tianjin) 3.6 0.02 1.55 Mesotrophic V

Danjiangkou(Hubei) 2.1 0.013 1.09 Mesotrophic IV

Laoshan(Shandong) 2.8 0.032 2.96 Mesotrophic V+

Songhuahu(Jilin) 5.0 0.051 1.71 Mesotrophic V

Dongpu(Anhui) 3.1 0.036 0.74 Mesotrophic III

Menlou(Shandong) 2.8 0.018 2.71 Mesotrophic V+

Miyun(Beijing) 2.7 0.007 0.46 Mesotrophic II

Qiadaohu(Zhejiang) 1.7 0.018 1.11 Mesotrophic IV

Since the early 1990s, overall water quality in China does not seem to have changed much, with increases in the shares of both good quality and poor quality river sections, and a decrease in the share of medium quality sections. However, regional trends were quite different, with significant improvements in the South, except for some rivers, contrasting with some deterioration in the North. At the river basin level, the percentage of poor quality sections increased in all five major northern rivers between 2000 and 2004, while all rivers--except the Yangtze in southern China--experienced increases in the proportion of water classified as good quality for the same period. 1.1 An Example of Dalian City

Dalian is one of China's northern coastal city on Dalian Bay. The original natural sea conditions and excellent water quality and fertile land had all kinds of biological growth and excellent marine aquaculture areas. As industrial development continued, Dalian Bay suffered an increase in polluted waters. Similarly, direct discharge into the bay accounts for 90% of the city sewage discharge. There are dozens of wastewater pollutants. Dalian Bay has been severely contaminated, causing serious economic losses, estimated to be 210.37 million yuan, accounting for 0.65% GNP.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix D | 4 According to latest results of Chinese Academy of Sciences: 1995 environmental pollution and ecological damage caused economic losses amounted to 187.5 billion yuan, but only accounted for pollution damage caused by 76. 2% to 1428,9 billion. Contaminated farmland nationwide each year is estimated to be 1,000 million ΂ 2, resulting in a loss of 12 billion kg of grain; and 45,500,000 kg dead fish because of pollution.

Damage caused by loss of water is about 2,4% - 3,25% GNP; these losses include the loss caused by industrial, agricultural damage loss, the loss of water supply, municipal additional investment losses, water conservancy and infrastructure damage and loss of fisheries and so on. Water pollution is a serious threat to drinking water safety, not only interfere with the economic, social, production and life, but also the growing impact of the environment, it gave rise to huge economic losses. 1.2 Urban and Rural Drinking Water

In spite of these differences, water quality degradation is also a threat to water supply as in southern China, where many cities face a supply crisis due to heavy pollution. Shanghai is a good example. Located downstream of the Yangtze River and the Lake Tai basin, Shanghai is seriously impacted by both upstream and local water pollution. Data from the local environmental protection bureau indicates only 1 percent of its surface water meets the standard for drinking water (grades I to III), while the percentage of poor quality water (worse than grade V) is as high as 68.6 percent. Zhejiang Province faces the same problem; that is, an abundance of water that is unusable rather than unavailable.

Groundwater is also polluted by wastewater discharges from industrial, municipal, and agricultural sources. In about 50 percent of all regions, shallow groundwater is polluted. In about 50 percent of the cities, groundwater is suffering from quite serious pollution.

The social impacts of water pollution become most prominent during pollution emergencies. This is exemplified by the Songhua River incident and the more recent water crisis in Wuxi City. Water Crisis in Wuxi in 2007

Wuxi, a typical city in eastern China, has long relied on Lake Tai as its source for water supply. Since the 1980s, rapid industrialization and urbanization have accelerated the eutrophication process of Lake Tai, which historically has been a major recipient of abundant agricultural fertilizer, pesticides, and livestock wastes. In May 2007, there was a sudden large-scale algae bloom, resulting in an intolerable odor in the local public water supply. Approximately 70 percent of local water supply became unusable, severely affecting the water use of 2 million people.

Water scarcity and pollution have caused tremendous economic losses in China. The economic cost of the disease and deaths associated with the excessive incidence of diarrhea and cancer in rural China has been estimated, based on 2003 data, at about 66.2 billion yuan, or about 0.49 percent of GDP. These costs are under estimated, since they do not include many health impacts associated with water pollution, such as those associated with chemicals known to cause cancer but without sufficient data to determine a dose-response relationship (World Bank 2007a).

Another important cost results when wastewater (that is, water below Grade V standards for irrigation) is used to irrigate crops. About 4.05 million hectares, or 7.4 percent of the nation’s irrigated lands, are irrigated with polluted water; two-thirds of this land is in northern China. This leads to reduced harvests, poor quality crops, and degraded quality soils. The economic loss attributed to these impacts has been estimated at about 61.3 billion yuan, equivalent to about 0.46 percent of GDP in 2003.

Water pollution also has an important impact on fisheries. Fishery losses due to acute pollution accidents amounted to over 4.3 billion yuan in 2003. While not insignificant (this figure is equivalent to 0.03 percent of GDP), these figures greatly underestimate the total fishery loss due to pollution, since

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix D | 5 chronic pollution costs are not included in the estimate and are likely to be much higher (World Bank 2007a). There are also major impacts on aquatic, coastal, and marine ecosystems, which are not included in the estimate.

In addition to direct impacts, pollution compounds the scarcity of water. This imposes significant costs on all productive sectors, especially agriculture. China depends on 55 million hectares of irrigated lands for about 80 percent of total grain output. Of these, about 20 million hectares are suffering from water deficiency, and an additional 7 million hectares cannot be irrigated at all, largely because of a shortage of 25 km3 of polluted water that cannot be used. The economic cost of water held back from supply has been estimated at 85.4 billion yuan, or about 0.64 percent of GDP, based on a scarcity value of water from 2.1 to 5.2 yuan/m3 (He and Chen 2005). The economic cost of groundwater depletion has been estimated at 92.3 billion yuan, equivalent to 0.69 percent of GDP, based on the scarcity value of water (World Bank 2007a).

Overall, water scarcity is constraining the long-term sustainability of development. The above estimates suggest that the external cost of water already amounts to about 2.3 percent of China’s GDP, of which 1.3 percent is attributable to the scarcity of water, and 1 percent to the direct impacts of water pollution. These estimates only represent the tip of the iceberg. They do not include costs where data are unavailable, such as the avoidance and treatment costs incurred by individual households and enterprises; the ecological impacts associated with eutrophication and the drying up of lakes, wetlands, and rivers; and the amenity loss of extensive pollution in most of China’s water bodies. Thus, the actual cost can be much higher. Evaluating the Implementation of the Water Pollution Prevention and Control Plans for the Huai River Basin

The Huai River basin (HRB) is located between the Yangtze River basin and Yellow River basin, covering an area of 270,000 km2 in Henan, Anhui, Jiangsu, and Shandong provinces. It is composed of two water systems, the Huai River to the south of the old Yellow River, with a catchments area of 190,000 km2, and the Yishusi River to the north, with a catchments area of 80,000 km2. The population in Huai River Basin was estimated at 168 million in 2003, accounting for 13 percent of the nation’s total. It GDP has increased from 421.48 billion yuan in 1994 to 1.05 trillion yuan in 2003. The urban population share increased from 13.02 percent in 1990 to 20.22 percent in 2003.

Since the end of the 1970s, the basin has witnessed booming growth in township and village enterprises, including paper production, alcohol distilleries, and food processing plants, which are highly water intensive and polluting. Since the introduction of large-scale pollution control in the Huai River in 1993, township industrial enterprises and others have grown by 1.5 times, and industrial output 14.5 times, over the 1978 levels. Enterprises, especially low-tech agro processing plants, grew rapidly. These small enterprises not only further aggravated the shortage of water resources in the basin, but also increased pressure on the environment, leading to frequent pollution incidents.

To address water pollution in the HRB, a series of Water Pollution Prevention and Control Plans (WPPCP) were made at the basin and provincial, city, and county levels by central authorities, local environmental protection bureaus (EPBs), and planning agencies.

Despite the great efforts to prevent and control water pollution, the planned goals for total pollutant discharge control and water quality have not been achieved, and the planned investment and treatment projects have not been fully implemented. There is still a long way to go to achieve the objective of controlling water pollution and improving water quality in the basin. The failure can be attributed to insufficient consideration of the complexity and difficulty of water quality improvements in formulating the plans; incomplete and even distorted information for pollution control planning; lack of

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix D | 6 monitoring systems to evaluate implementation of plans; policy failures in support of implementation of plans; and fragmented institutional systems for water resources management. Source: Ma 2006

Haihe River Basin water deterioration of ecological environment is also very serious. In the last 60 years of the 20th century, the middle and lower reaches of Haihe River Basin have seen surface water storages drying up, and rivers drying up causing a lot of ecological damage.

At the same time, the loss of wetlands is leading to reduced water supply and wetland areas continuing to shrink. North Pearl "Baiyangdian", since the 20th century started the lake has been dry seven times; from 1984 to 1988 the lake was actually dry sediment for 5 consecutive years now can only rely on the limited upstream reservoir replenishment.

The Haihe River Basin 8 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities on November 17, 2003 jointly issued the "Declaration of the Haihe River Basin water cooperation" to further strengthen coordination and cooperation, and promote sustainable water use and comprehensive economic and social harmony development.

Figure 1 Water Quality in Huai River Basin

1.3 Eco-environmental and Social Impacts and Economic Loss

Water scarcity by drought and extensive pollution entail substantial environmental and social impacts and economic losses, which threaten sustainable development. Water scarcity is undermining the capacity of water bodies to fulfill their ecological functions. Due to excessive withdrawals, even a minimum of environmental and ecological flows cannot be ensured for some rivers in northern China. For example, water withdrawal rates in the Huang River can reach up to 90 percent in drought years,

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix D | 7 with the river running dry before reaching the sea (Water Resources Institute 2001). In some years of the 1990s, water flows at the deltas of the Hai and Huang (Yellow) rivers averaged about 15 km3 less than the amount required to transport silt and to maintain estuarine and coastal environments (World Bank 2002b). The duration of low flows in these rivers increased from 40 days in the early 1990s to 200 days in 1997. In recent years, the situation has improved because of relevant policy actions such as the Regulation on Water Volume Control for the Huang River, which has been enforced since August 1, 2006. 1.3.1 The overall impacts on Social and Eco-environment Social impacts

Water scarcity caused by drought and water pollution has important social impacts. The most important relates to the health risks resulting from polluted drinking water sources. According to a national survey, about 25 percent of over 1,000 source areas of drinking water nationwide do not meet the national standard (Sheng 2005). In rural areas, about 300 million people rely on unsafe drinking water, of which 190 million drink water with unhealthy levels of hazardous materials, 63 million with high concentrations of fluorine, and 38 million with salty water (Sheng 2005). The lack of access to piped water has been associated with a 26 percent increase in diarrhea in children under 5 years of age. As Figure 2.10 shows, the mortality rates for liver and stomach cancer in China are well above the world average, while the mortality rates for liver, stomach, and bladder cancer were highest in rural areas.

The impact of drought on the eco-environment is mainly to reduce surface water amount, water quality deterioration, ground water table lowering, grassland degradation and desertification. A large water resource will be required to support the large scale agriculture development and urbanization and this is negatively impacted by drought and pollution. Wasteland land reclamation and the construction of water storage dams has led to a serious threat to natural ecological environment that has continued to deteriorate.

An example of the impact of drought is the Baiyangdian lake ecological crisis caused by drought. Baiyangdian Lake, with a total area of 366km 2 of water surface, is rare inland freshwater lake in North China Plain. Baiyangdian freshwater body contains up to 17 families and 54 species of freshwater fishes. The highest annual fish production can reach 8850t. There are 192 species of birds. Among them there are 187 national-level protected birds, including the size of the swans, gray stork, eagle owl, egret has been known as "biological resources and wildlife population gene pool."

Baiyangdian is located in the Haihe River Basin, which is a water resource shortage area, In the last 30 years, as a result of frequent drought and water inflow blocked by the reservoirs in the upper reach area, Baiyuangdian Lake has become a dry lake. Water resource shortage has constrained economic and social development. Continuing drought and persistent dry lakes thus further led to serious aquatic ecological crisis and wetland function is severely degraded. The wetland around Baiyangdian lake has now become dry land and has lost the wetland functions of a large area wetlands on climate regulation, flood control, clean water capacity, providing wildlife habitat and gene pool with habitat.

Lack of water resource that caused the water crisis also triggered a number of ecological crises, such as falling groundwater levels, saltwater intrusion and increased desertification and pollution of water resources. The relative lack of pollution carrying capacity of water environment will inevitably lead to greater challenges faced to the ecological environment. 1.3.2 Drought accelerates overexploitation of groundwater resources

The world's arid or semi arid land covers 1 / 3 area of the total land. In the arid or semi arid land region, groundwater resources experienced overexploitation. The groundwater overexploitation has caused

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix D | 8 serious eco-environmental issues, such as underground aquifers failure, deterioration of water quality, desertification and salinization of land.

In PRC, excessive pollution also results in groundwater depletion. As much as 24 km3 of water beyond rechargeable quantities is extracted from the ground, leading to a lowering of water tables and eventual exhaustion of groundwater reservoirs, as well as extensive subsidence in many cities. In northern China in 2005, 63.3 percent of water supply was from surface water, and 36.3 percent (over one-third) from groundwater, equivalent to withdrawal rates of 47.1 percent and 53.5 percent, respectively. In the Hai River basin, groundwater accounted for 66.7 percent of water supply and was being withdrawn from the aquifer at a rate of 95.5 percent. To compensate for the deficit of surface water in meeting demand, northern China has increasingly relied on groundwater.

Such excessive overexploitation of groundwater resources (Figure 2) has resulted in the lowering of water tables and the rapid depletion of groundwater reservoirs. For example, the annual sustainable supply of groundwater in the Hai River basin is estimated at about 17.3 km3, while withdrawals were 26.1 km3, which indicates an annual over-extraction as high as 8.8 km3. As a result, deep groundwater tables have dropped by up to 90 meters, and shallow groundwater tables by up to 50 meters (World Bank 2002b). In Beijing, groundwater tables have dropped by 100 to 300 meters (World Bank 2002b).

Figure 2 Groundwater Depletion by Province (million m3)

The depletion of groundwater resources is contributing to the drying up of lakes and wetlands and an increase in groundwater salinity. This occurs when seawater intrudes or when declining groundwater resources are substituted by brackish water that often lies between the shallow and deep groundwater tables (Zhu 2006). In some locations, intrusion of brackish water has been monitored at a rate of 0.5 to 2 meters per year for the past 20 years (Foster et al. 2004). Sea water intrusion has occurred in 72 locations along coastal provinces, covering an area of 142 km 2 (World Bank 2002b).

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix D | 9 When groundwater is depleted, the aquifer is compacted, causing the land above it to subside. Subsidence of up to several meters has been observed in cities like Beijing, Tianjin, Taiyuan, Shijiazhuang, and Shanghai, causing damage to buildings and bridges, and even the collapse of construction projects (Shalizi 2006). Direct impacts of subsidence include reduced capacity for flood protection and waterlogging in urban areas due to less effective drainage (World Bank 2002b). The compaction of groundwater aquifers also destroys their storage capacity, and with it their ability to serve as a strategic reserve for dry years. In some areas, the destruction of aquifers is already worsening the impact of droughts and desertification.

In 2001-2006, North China Plain experienced a decline in groundwater levels. In 2001, precipitation in the area was 427,9 mm, 155,7 mm less than the previous year, Compared with the average rainfall for many years, the rainfall in 2001 reduced 30%. Such situation led the groundwater overexploitation. Groundwater level in early 2002, the overall downward trend of the decline area was 66,82km2, Compared to the previous, groundwater storage decreased 20.7 billion square meters, of which, Anhui, Henan provinces worst decline in groundwater level, the average decline in 1,80 m and 1,33 m (China Ministry of Water Resources, 2002).

Table 3 2001-2006 Northern China Plain Dynamic monitoring of groundwater water level changes in Northern China Plain

Year Monitoring Descending Ascending Percentage Percentage of of Area(,0000km) Area(,0000km) Area(,0000km) Descending Ascending

Area(%) Area(%)

2002 75.2 51.8 23.4 69 31

2003 74.1 18.4 55.7 24.8 75.2

2001 74 54.4 19.6 73.5 26.5

2005 73.9 43.9 30 59 41

2006 74 46 28 63 37

1.3.3 The hazards on surface water Eco-environment by Drought

Drought not only affects the surface water volume, but will also affect the surface water (rivers, lakes) quality. In the drought period, the surface water runoff reduction leads to deterioration in the self- purification capacity of the rivers and lakes, the water quality is reduced. The wastewater discharged directly to rivers without treatment then leads to the extreme deterioration of river water environment. 1.3.4 Intrusion of sea water

Seawater intrusion, often referred to as "salt lake", mainly occur in the dry season or drought periods, occurs when seawater flows back into inland freshwater bodies through rivers or other channels. The drought reduces river runoff and the water level is lowered and this lowers the hydraulic pressure that holds the seawater at bay. Reduced outflows at the mouth of the river can lead to seawater intrusion in the mouth area of the river and to destroy the ecological balance of the original river. Such impact occurred in Guangdong Province for September 2004 – April 2005. Severe drought produced the most serious salt water intrusion in the Pearl River Estuary coastal areas in 20 years and has forced

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix D | 10 some factories to shutdown. In Shandong, seawater intrusion now covers an area of over 400km2 and the annual rate of seawater intrusion into inland has reached 400m, and caused salinization of cultivated land and drinking water shortage for the local residents. In the areas of Laizhou and Yantai, due to seawater intrusion and increased salinity of groundwater, more than 6,264 motor-pumped wells were affected by the deterioration of drinking water conditions. Some 30,8 million people faced drinking water shortage problems. In October 2003, West Pearl River seawater intrusion in the estuary affected more than 10 town for water supply shortage , 1.3.5 The Nansi Lake water supply crisis caused by severe drought and water shortage

Nansihu Lake is one of top ten freshwater lakes with many bird species, (including more than 30 kinds of a state primary and secondary protection of birds), 78 species of fish, 78 species of aquatic plants, phytoplankton 116 species with a good ecological chain and is a national nature reserve.

In 2002, Nansihu Lake suffered serious drought. The water level dropped to 32,00 m, a historic low water level; corresponding storage capacity is only about 0,10 million m3, nearly dried up. The drought damaged the whole ecology of the lake and surrounds and it has not recovered fully after 5 years. 1.4 The Impacts on terrestrial Eco-environment by drought

1.4.1 Drought and land desertification

Drought is an important factor for land desertification, combined the other natural conditions and human activities, in the vulnerable eco-environment. Droughts lead to a reduction in soil moisture and vegetation biomass. After the vegetation degradation, land is force to accelerate the development of desertification.

China has some of the world's major deserts and desertification of land is a serous problem. Deserts and Desertification has a large land distribution, stretching from the west to more than 5,500 ΂, the administrative division, including Xinjiang, Qinghai, Gansu, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi and another 11 provinces, involving 212 counties (banners, cities). National deserts and desertification of the total land area of about 1.53 million ΂ 2, accounting for about 16% of total land area, more than the sum of the national cultivated area. 1.4.2 Drought and secondary disasters

Drought is often associated with pests and disasters, especially locusts. This is because locusts like warm, dry, arid environment conducive to their survival, reproduction and growth.

Since the 80s of the 20th century, due to drought, soil desertification, salinization of agricultural ecological environment, the locust disasters occurred frequency and damage increased. In the years, 1998-2001, locust outbreaks caused a serious threat to agricultural production. 1.4.3 Pests in pasture land

According to historical records, drought has led to serious pest outbreaks in pastoral areas,, resulting in a substantial reduction of grass biomass and loss of original grassland habitat. In 1999 for example a severe drought in pastoral area, insects and mice caused damage to a total area 43.3 million ΂ area.(China Agriculture Yearbook, 1999,2000).

Drought occurs, the soil water content decreased, forest trees and grass pasture with water content also decreased. In arid land with the environmental conditions of high temperature, fire risk is greatly increased. Bush and brush fire risk increases in drought years. 1.4.4 The damage to wetlands and biodiversity by drought

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix D | 11 Wetlands are natural or artificial means, a permanent or temporary wetlands, peat land or water area, with a static or flowing, or fresh water, semi-saline or saline water, including not more than 6m deep at low tide waters.

Wetland ecosystems formation and generally should have two conditions: low-lying and water supply. Occurrence of drought is difficult to meet the water supply due to make wetland area decreased, degradation of ecosystem function.

In recent decades, due to long-term drought and water shortage and human over-exploitation of wetland destruction of wetland resources in China's sharp decline in the quantity and quality, within a short time degradation is very serious. Many wetlands continue to dry up.

Wetlands dry wetland ecosystems caused by two changes: First, the loss of wetland area; Second, the degradation of wetland ecosystems. According to expedition found, accounting for China's natural wetlands area northeast, The Sanjiang Plain has been degraded. In the first 80 years of the 20th century, the area ground water level, just a 4-6m, is now down more than 10 m. Less water has degraded wetlands and reduced the ability of wetlands to regulate availability while intensified droughts and floods have aggravated the water crisis.

In wetland ecosystems a lack of water is a serious threat to biodiversity. As the wetland area decreases, resulting in reduction of animal habitat, feeding is reduced, leading to a decrease in biodiversity. According to the surveys many wetland species populations are declining, if the existing lack of effective protection of wetlands continues, unique biological species may disappear.

As noted above, because of human development on the wetland's is unreasonable, there has been a large area of wetlands in Sanjiang Plain converted to farmland. In the Yangtze River Basin, highland wetland reclamation and drainage coupled with overgrazing caused a very severe case of wetland degradation. As a result increased flood and drought disaster has occurred causing a regional water shortage, loss of wetlands, or loss of services that had a negative impact on the economic, social and ecological environment. If the degradation of wetlands continues it will lead to disastrous consequences. 1.4.5 An Example of Tongyu County

Tongyu County is in the west of Jilin province and within the Wetlands National Nature Reserve, China's seventh largest wetlands. It is the most species-rich nature reserve in China with the largest reservoir catchment area of 71,8 ΂ 2, the total storage capacity 2,21 million m3.

Successive droughts and increased human activities in the upstream Huolin he river basin appeared to be the cause of wetland salinization, desertification, deterioration of surface water and a lowering of the water table. This has reduced the size of the wetland, quality of water and regeneration capacity. 2. Environmental management Strategy for Drought 2.1 Protecting River Basin Ecosystems through Market-oriented Ecological-Compensation mechanisms

Addressing water scarcity requires protecting the sources of the water, especially the ecosystems in the upper reaches of river basins, such as forests, wetlands, and even agricultural lands. Both central and local governments are increasingly interested in the use of government transfers from public funds--under the name of Ecological Compensation Mechanisms to protect ecosystems in the upper reaches of river basins. But the current approach relies on public financial transfers (mainly from the central government to local government), and lacks a direct link between ecosystem service providers and ecosystem service beneficiaries. This raises some doubts about the long-term financial sustainability and efficiency of Ecological Compensation Mechanisms.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix D | 12 Payment for Ecological Compensation Mechanisms Offer a More Market-Oriented Approach

In a payment for ecological compensation system, a market for environmental services is created whereby money is collected or reallocated from the beneficiaries who use environmental services (water consumers) and payments are made directly to those who provide these services (such as watershed land managers).

Payment for ecological compensation system offers a more market-oriented and self-financing alternative to the government-funded Ecological Compensation Mechanisms currently used in China.

Ecological Compensation System Has Been Tested in Other Countries and Has Great Potential in China

Ecological Compensation System has been developed and implemented in other countries with encouraging results and can be applied in China, as illustrated by the case study of the Lashihai Nature Reserve in Lijiang City, Yunnan Province. While Ecological Compensation System schemes are not a universal panacea, they should be treated as one step forward to enhance and complement existing efforts of ecosystem conservation in China. 2.1.1 Recommended Actions

 Continue to expand the application of Ecological Compensation Mechanism

Given the urgency of protecting ecosystems in the upper reaches of river basins for water supply, China should continue to expand its Ecological Compensation programs, especially when the ecosystem service providers and beneficiaries are distant from one another and their links cannot be explicitly defined, or where there are obvious poverty alleviation benefits.

 Promote the piloting of Ecological Compensation System

To improve the efficiency and effectiveness of ecological compensation and reduce the financial burden on governments, China should vigorously pilot more market-oriented approaches for ecological compensation. It has much appeal in China and should be piloted and promoted, beginning with some small watersheds. 2.2 Ecological protection

First, the allocation of water rights, specifically for the ecological water allocation of 28% of the water, this part of the water allocated to the forestry sector is mainly used for forestry development and desert irrigation, can not enter transactions into other uses.

Watershed management organization should be in conjunction with regional forestry departments, municipalities, Forestry, and other units of water used for ecological monitoring.

Secondly, water trading between municipalities, when the total water volume exceeds the total amount of water needed for basic water rights, the excess water can flow downstream to improve the ecological environment.

Of course, cities also can choose to increase water demand, river basin management institutions can sell the surplus water rights for the revenue, investment in the downstream groundwater developed to improve the ecological environment.

Strengthening management and coordination is needed to improve water use efficiency and reduce the need for large scale transfers and minimize the negative impacts on the environment. 2.2.1 Improving Emergency Response and Preventing Pollution Disasters

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix D | 13 Water pollution incidents represent a serious threat for water resources. According to the Annual Statistic Report on Environment in China, there were 198 water pollution related incidents with the economical loss of 26,545,700 Yuan/CNY in 2008, 178 water pollution related incidents with economical loss of 15,150,000 Yuan/CNY in 2007 and 482 water pollution related incidents with economical loss of 65,908,000 Yuan/CNY in 2006. These numbers are probably on the low side because polluters and some local officials tend not to report environmental accidents. In recent years, some major water pollution incidents occurred, including the well-known Songhua River pollution incident in November 2005, which interrupted drinking water supply to millions of households. Other major recent examples include the release of toxic smelting waste into the Bei River (in the Pearl River basin) in December 2005; the release of cadmium-containing wastewater into the Xiang River (in the Yangtze River basin); and a diesel-oil spill into the Huang (Yellow) River in January 2006. These incidents have badly damaged the already fragile water environment, contaminated downstream drinking water supplies for tens of thousands of people, and severely threatened public health and the quality of life. The data on water pollution related incident for the project targeted provinces and region are present in Table 4.

Table 4 Water Pollution Related Incidents by the Selected Provinces and Region

Inner Mongolia Liaoning Anhui

Number of Economic Number of Economic Number of Economic Accidents Losses Accidents Losses Accidents Losses (Yuan/CNY) (Case) (Yuan/CNY) (Yuan/CNY)

2005 3 66000 6 72000 16 1029000

2006 1 784000 8 290000 15 4138000

2007 1 12000 2 1715000 13 4300000

2008 1 10000 1 250000 9 14015000

July 1994 on the Huai River a pollution accident caused around 200 million yuan of direct economic losses. To repair the damage to the Huai River the state invested 10.6 billion, not including some of the local self-financing.

In April 1999 in the Huaihe River tributaries (Hongru river) received a large number of excessive waste water sewage pollution, water quality deterioration caused a large number of dead fish. April 12 and May 4, Ying tributaries received high concentrations of ammonia industrial wastewater reduced water quality with a black-odor, a large number of dead fish river and caused serious difficulties to the drinking water along the Huaihe River. As a result of large-scale pollution of the Huaihe River, the water quality is the worst in recent years. According to Wangjiaba Monitoring Station (April 18-21 1999), permanganate index (CODMn) average 56,7 mg / L.

Experts roughly estimate water pollution caused economic losses of up to 40 billion in the Huaihe river basin; Pollution in Taihu Lake caused an annual loss of 50 billion.

Despite some successful recent cases of environmental emergency response, the high frequency of serious pollution incidents and their associated costs in China support the need for continued reform and strengthening of existing institutions for environmental pollution emergency prevention and response. Current practice in emergency management still suggests that the main focus of local governments has been on mitigation after an incident. However, prevention of incidents by strict

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix D | 14 enforcement of appropriate policies and regulations is typically a more cost-effective approach and should be emphasized. A situation analysis shows that the problem is attributable to various factors, ranging from weak legal and institutional arrangements, lack of incentives, and poor chemical management systems to inadequate on-site coordinating, monitoring, and reporting.

Based on lessons from the international experience, the basic elements of an effective prevention and response system, as already developed and implemented in many developed countries, include (a) a shift from mitigation to a focus on risk assessment, prevention, and planning; (b) enhancing the preparedness of first responders; (c)rigorous implementation of the polluter-pays principle to shift financial responsibility for the costs of potential disasters to polluters, (d) the establishment of chemical information management systems to track the flow of toxic chemicals and provide the necessary information for a quick and effective response if an accident occurs, and (e) effective public information systems to provide timely information in the event of an emergency. 2.2.3 Recommended Actions

 Shift from mitigation to prevention and planning

Environmental protection and work safety agencies should be the competent authorities to approve the adequacy of environment and safety risk assessment, applying a thorough risk management approach that focuses on both prevention and mitigation of the impacts of chemical incidents. All high- hazard plants--regardless age--should be subject to risk assessment and be required to prepare an emergency response plan.

 Enhance preparedness

First responders should be well trained for handling chemical incidents and equipped with the mandate and resources to contain pollution releases. The National Chemical Registration Center and its regional offices should establish a unit, independent from enforcement divisions, to provide 24-hour technical support to the emergency services on the properties and appropriate responses to specific chemical releases from a safety and environmental perspective.

 Establish an environmental disaster fund through the implementation of the polluter-pays principle

An environmental disaster fund with sufficient revenue to support such activities as information management, training, and clean-up for environmental incidents should be established. Funds could be raised through an increase in the pollution levy and/or the introduction of environmental taxes on toxic chemicals. In addition, increased fines for pollution accidents to cover the cost of clean-up and compensation should be considered another source for the fund.

 Establish a chemical management information system

The central government should establish and maintain comprehensive inventories of all chemicals and pollution sources containing information consistent with international standards. The function and effectiveness of the two existing systems developed by SAWS and MEP separately should be reviewed. Inventories should be consistent, comprehensive, and easily used in public emergency prevention and response. A comprehensive labeling system for chemicals should be established and applied to all parts of the production, storage, and transportation process.

 Strengthen monitoring and public information

In the event of an incident, local environment and safety authorities should establish appropriate additional monitoring to assess the impact on the health and safety of the local communities and the environment. Investigation findings should be reported to the central authorities, and a mechanism

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix D | 15 established to share lessons learned and introduce new legally binding practices and procedures if necessary. The public has the right to be informed of the final investigation results. 2.3 Improving the Management both at the Water Quantity and Quality

Despite the recent trend of combining various water-related agencies into a more unified water bureau in some city governments and converting government-owned water utilities into corporations, China’s water resource management system is characterized by extensive vertical and horizontal fragmentation. Horizontally, at every level of government several institutions are involved in water management.

For example, water quality and quantity management are separated from each other and put under MEP and MWR; that is, MWR is responsible for water allocation planning and water rights administration, whereas MEP is responsible for water pollution prevention and control. As a result, the planning process for basin-wide water quantity and quality management has mainly proceeded on two separate tracks, under the supervision of MWR and MEP, with the actual implementation in the hands of the local governments. This two track system is replicated at the local (province, prefecture, county) level. Water resource bureaus at the provincial level and water affairs bureaus (WAB) at the municipal level, which are overseen by MWR and MHURC at the central level, are responsible for the administration of water rights, the planning and operation of water utilities, and the protection of water bodies on the basis of water function zones. Environmental protection bureaus (EPBs) overseen by MEP are responsible for issuing pollution permits, controlling pollution, and the protection of water bodies on the basis of environmental water zones.

Even the responsibility for water pollution prevention and control is broken down and put under different institutions. While MEP is responsible for prevention and control of pollution from industrial and municipal sources, MOA is responsible for nonpoint agricultural pollution control and MOT for ship transportation water pollution control. Consequently, for any given water body that receives pollution from various sources, the management of water quality would involve these institutions as well as MWR, because water quality is associated with water quantity: more water can create greater capacity to dilute more pollutants. That increases the difficulty and administrative costs in water quality management.

An increase in the price of water for industry and the domestic sector can also be expected to stimulate an increase in water-use efficiency, mainly through higher rates of water treatment to allow for its recycling and reuse. In recent decades, substantial advancements in wastewater treatment processes make it possible to effectively remove biodegradable material, nutrients, pathogens, and heavy metals from effluent streams so that the treated waters can be reused in a wide range of applications. Costs will vary. A recent survey of Chinese enterprises and waste water treatment plants estimated that treatment costs for industrial range from 1.0 to 3.8 yuan/m3 for industrial uses, and from 0.8 to 0.9 yuan/m for domestic uses. Both are below the scarcity value of water, at least in North China (Table 5).

Table 5 Wastewater Treatment Cost for major Industrial and Domestic Sectors

Sector Treatment Cost (Yuan/m3)

Petrochemicals 3.8

Raw chemical materials and 3.7 products

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix D | 16 Chemical manufacturing 3.7

Iron and steel smelting and pressing 3.50

Food processing 3,20

Chemical fibers manufacturing 2.8

Non-metallic mineral products 2.65

Textile manufacturing 2.5

Paper and paper products 2.5 manufacturing

Power generation and heating 2.0

Coal mining and washing 2.00

Food manufacturing 1.95

Medicines manufacturing 1.9

Beverage manufacturing 1.65

Domestic wastewater 0.8-0.9

Source: CAEP 2006

2.3.1 Low Levels of Pollution Charge

In developed countries, polluters are often liable for the full cost of remediation and compensation. In China, although the country has implemented a pollution levy system since the 1980s,its pollution levy and penalties for noncompliance are low and not often prohibitive, and the cost of causing pollution is low compared to international standards. The low levels of the pollution levy provide little incentive for industries to abate pollution and reduce pollution discharges. In many cases, it is cheaper for polluters to pay the levy than to take actions to abate or reduce pollution. The example in the box below provides an example of a specific chemical plant. Distorted Economic Incentive for Pollution Discharge

The financial trade-offs faced by a chemical enterprise in China that is required to meet discharge standards illustrate the distorted economic incentive for pollution control. The plant discharges 1,000 m3/day of wastewater with a pH of 10.8, with average 750mg/L COD, 180 mg/L anionic surfactants, 190mg/L BOD, and 330mg/L suspended solids. These pollutants exceed the Grade II wastewater discharge standards that the plant is required to meet. Based on the Collection and Management Provisions of Pollutants Discharge Fee (State Council, 2003 Order No. 31), the discharge fee for such noncompliant discharge should be 3.01 yuan/m3. On the other hand, should the enterprise choose to treat its wastewater prior to discharging, its investment is equivalent to a capital cost of 6.90 yuan/m3 (not including the operation cost) to which should be added a discharge fee of 0.17 yuan/m3 for the pollutants remaining in the treated and compliant wastewater. Thus, paying for the noncompliant discharge is much cheaper than building a wastewater treatment plant.

 The establishment of sewage fees

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix D | 17 Improve sewage collection lines, so that sewage is far higher than the cost of recovery and management of water resources.

At present, sewage charges are generally low (far below the water resources compensation for use) with variable rate charging penalties. So far, the use of economic instruments under the destruction and pollution of water resources act, have had difficulty in achieving the protection of limited water resources.

Therefore, the overall index increase in sewage charges needs to be equal or even higher than the water recovery and management fees and take a "strict entry, stringent exit" approach, to regulate the behavior of polluters. Companies will be encouraged to safeguard their own interests and improve efforts towards good water governance and strengthen the protection of water resources. 2.3.2 Implementation of Water Pollution Control Plans for the Huai River Basin

The Huai River is the only river basin for which three consecutive five-year river basin Water Pollution Prevention and Control Plans (WPPCPs) (1996¨-2010) have been prepared and implemented. The State Council has also issued the Provisional Decree of Water Pollution Prevention and Control for Huai River. However, an evaluation of the first two five-year plans (1996-2005) found that the water quality and total emission control targets were not achieved. For instance, the 9th FYP’ (1996) water quality target for 2000 was to achieve Class III for the entire main stream. However, by 2005, the water quality at 80 percent of the national monitoring sites in the basin was still at Class IV or worse.

Moreover, the financing plans for wastewater treatment laid out in the 9th and 10th five-year WPPCPs also failed. Although these plans expected local governments to fund the program, there were no specific allocations from the central to the local governments for this purpose. As a result, while the central government assigned the funding responsibility, the local governments waited for the funds to be allocated from the central government. Because of weak supervision, poor coordination at different government levels, and lack of a monitoring mechanism for financial performance, the funding was totally inadequate.

In addition, all three plans specified goals for total emissions control. However, the goals applied only to industrial and municipal point sources. Nonpoint sources and management of water quantity were not considered, making it impossible for ambient quality goals to be achieved. 2.4 Pollution Source Information and Management

Water quality has been regarded as the primary goal of most WPPCPs. Official weekly and annual reports on the water environment emphasize data on water quality. Although water quality is clearly the ultimate goal of water pollution control, an improvement in water quality depends on effective control of pollution sources. However, there are only partial information datasets on sources of pollution. The problem is compounded because three major water authorities°(TM)MWR, MEP, an MHURC°(TM) are all involved in water quality management, and cross-sectoral coordination is often a challenge.

After many years of effort, information is now available on most of the main point sources of pollution. Four existing and ongoing environmental information systems are used by MEP and local EPBs: (1) the environmental statistical program, (2) the pollution levy program, (3) the emission reporting and permit program, and (4) the environmental impact assessment (EIA) program. Information from these sources is collected by local EPBs and transmitted to and managed by MEP. Although the information is imperfect, compiling and comparing emissions information from various programs could form the starting point for establishing a unified information system of pollution sources, promoting inter-agency

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix D | 18 information sharing, identifying failures in pollution control programs, and developing a more comprehensive strategy for water pollution control. 2.4.1 Safe Drinking Water and Pollution Control

Frequent water pollution incidents have recently stimulated governmental actions to secure the safety of drinking water. In the Decision on Implementing the Scientific Development Strategy and Strengthening Environmental Protection released by the State Council in December 2005, drinking water safety was highlighted as a high priority task. But the response of local governments is usually to search for alternative sources of supply--such as water transfer and underground water extraction-- rather than controlling water pollution. In some cases, local governments have even diverted polluted water to less-developed downstream areas to avoid investing in wastewater treatment.

Alternative sources may be effective in providing safe drinking water in the short run, but are not, in many cases, the appropriate final and sustainable solution. Furthermore, this short-run approach may involve more risks, such as (1) disturbing water resource allocations and causing further water shortages, which may result in additional environmental impacts because of added engineering projects; (2) ignoring the urgency and damage caused by water pollution, which will delay and reduce efforts in pollution control, and (3) shifting the burden to other regions and future generations, thus causing trans boundary or trans generational externalities. From a long-term perspective, pollution control--instead of water transfer and underground water extraction—is the most important and effective way to address the problem of providing safe drinking water. 2.4.2 Routine Pollution Prevention Versus After-Incident Treatment

The well-known Songhua River toxic spill in 2005 and the algae outbreak in Tai Lake near Wuxi City highlighted the absence of an effective prevention and response system for pollution incidents. A series of actions were subsequently taken, including the 2006 National Plan for Environmental Emergency Response and the subsequent 2007 National Emergency Response Law. However, the pollution emergency plans and laws mainly focus on response rather than prevention. This approach is insufficient: the primary reason for the increase in water pollution accidents is not the lack of emergency response plans, but the government’s ineffectiveness in the supervision and control of pollution sources. A comprehensive risk assessment and management program for pollution sources should therefore be introduced at all levels of government to assist in emergency prevention.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix D | 19 Appendix E

Pilot Study Outcomes 1. Outcomes of the Pilots (incorporating Case Studies)

The case studies considered three provinces that differ considerably in their water resources, environments and drought management issues. Detailed information on the conditions in each province is contained in the Interim Report, Chapter 7. After field visits and discussion in phase 1, a comparison was made with drought plans, actions and possibilities for changes in approach. The suitability for each province as a full scale field pilot site was also considered. A short summary is presented of water issues that drought has the potential to have a major impact upon and has impacted upon in the last decade.

It is important to note that there are significant issues in relation to reducing exposure and vulnerability to drought through better water management within existing practices. Although not often seen as part of drought management in China, addressing these is essential to reduce the impact of droughts as part of improving overall water management. This involves a different approach to investment, planning and water saving/water use/water recycling than is often used currently. 1.1 Liaoning Province

1.1.1 Key issues facing Liaoning that increase exposure and vulnerability to drought

Currently, provincial drought management still has some serious issues: i. Water resources shortage constrains social economic development-

Liaoning is considered a water-deficient area. Total provincial water resources is 36.3 billion m3, and per capita water resources is 860 m3 that accounts for 1/3 of national per capita water resources amount. Currently, water supply amount is 14.48 billion m3, in which, surface water is 8.38 billion m3, underground water is 5.99 billion m3, recycle water is 40 million m3, and other is 70 million m3. Annual provincial water demand is 15.17 billion m3, in which, urban domestic water demand is 1.81 billion m3, industry water demand is 3.36 billion m3, rural people and livestock water demand is 690 million m3, agricultural irrigation water demand is 9.24 million m3, and others is 70 million m3. Liaoning Province has total amount of 690 million m3 of water shortage. Middle and downstream areas of Liao River and Western Liaoning are the main water shortage areas. Continued fast social-economic development, population increase, and urban development of Liaoning Province, water demand will increase. ii. Waste of water resources and water pollution increase pressure on water supply -

Most irrigated farms (total 10.54 million mu) use traditional irrigation method, and the utilization of irrigation water is about 38%. About half of the total of 9 billion m3 of water resources is provided to irrigation is lost. For industry water, about 130 m3 to 150 m3 of water is used for every 10,000 yuan output value; the highest can reach to 300 m3. Water leakage of urban water supply and water use facilities is quite common, therefore water loss in urban water supply pipe network is quite large. Average water loss rate is at least 30%, some can reach to 40%. During the process of industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization, as water resources protection is neglected, a series of environmental issues occurred, such as water pollution, excessive extraction of groundwater and seawater intrusion. Every year, total provincial wastewater discharge amount is about 2.8 billion m3, and most of them had not been treated before discharge.

Water quality of most river reaches of Liao River, Hun River, Taizi River, Daliao River, and Daling River is IV to V grade (grade 1 is safe drinking water). There are 16 areas of excessive groundwater extraction areas in Liaoning, and the area is 1500 km2. Excessive extraction is estimated to be 375 million m3.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix E | 1 The seawater intrusion area of Dalian, Yingkou, Jinzhou and Gourd Island has increased from 50 km2 in early 1980s to 751.3 km2 now. iii. Agricultural infrastructure is not strong, so agricultural production is restricted by weather

Droughts occurring in Liaoning Province cause the most serious affects on agriculture. The affected farm area is more than 20 million mu each year, virtually all the dry land agriculture in the province. The effective irrigation land is 21.61 million mu that accounts for only 41.2% of arable land. Currently, the provincial water-saving irrigation farm is 6,260,000 mu. iv. Current system and policy of irrigation areas could not form effective water-saving mechanism-

Liaoning has 9 large size irrigation areas, 86 middle size irrigation areas, and 3000 small size irrigation areas. At present, most irrigation areas are managed by enterprises. As a result of the management system, the enterprises have no independent operation rights. The income of irrigation areas is mainly from the water charge. The water price is low; from provincial reservoirs is 5 cents/ton; the water price of other reservoirs is 3 cents/ton. Hence, it is difficult to mobilize funds for water-saving initiatives, to conduct rehabilitation and repair works. Some irrigation areas of Panshan, Dengta, Yingkou, Donggang, Wangshi are implementing water-saving engineering reconstruction. However, other middle and small irrigation areas are being used without repair. v. Rural people and livestock drinking water shortage

Around 3,420,000 people of 6898 villages face regular drinking water shortages in dry years. The provincial government constructed 5234 drinking water wells in 5234 villages servicing 1,915,000 people. Currently, 1,731,000 people of 2634 villages have continual drinking water shortages. vi. The of drought relief service organization and institution need to be strengthened; the drought relief capacity need to be improved-

Liaoning Province needs to establish 37 drought relief service organizations at and above County Level of which only 22 organizations can get funding support from the state government. Due to lack of equipment and funds, the services of the organizations need to be improved. 1.1.2 Drought Management Plans

Although Liaoning has established drought management organisations and assistance/mitigation plans in place, these have little impact on the long term susceptibility of many vulnerable communities because of the limited funds available to support these communities and no clear plan for longer term supply apart from ground water exploitation. They are often in locations away from main rivers and infrastructure. Liaoning has also over exploited ground water and continues to do so with ongoing negative impacts such as declining aquifers and salt incursion fro the sea. Larger scale developments within the main cities and towns are more reliant upon water diversions from other areas than previously. Liaoning is attempting to recycle and reuse water to clean water in the main city. Hence there is considerable room for better planning in overall water management, a different approach to investment in small scale water resource development for vulnerable communities and the application of more science into the system. Liaoning has some soil monitoring station although lacks the ability to make good use of the data. A proper early warning system, risk assessment and vulnerability analysis is needed to better prepare for drought and drought mitigation planning. 1.1.3 Potential for Change

There is significant improvement potential in Liaoning Province for both drought management and water savings. A study by Dr Yu of Institute of Water and Hydropower into the 2000 to 2002 drought

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix E | 2 indicates the serious impacts on food production and water security for the province with wider implications for national food security from a regional drought. The impacts were documented earlier in Chapter 3. Loaning SFCDRH are now seeking further scientific studies to improve understanding and outcomes for better planning for droughts. Hence this a good time to start the change process. 1.1.4 Recommendation

Liaoning is a largely self contained province with its own river systems and dry mountain areas. It has increasing ribbon development along the main river system with major industrial pollution problems. Dry mountain areas remain an ongoing issue with around 4 million people chronically short of water. In Liaoning, several issues overlap with ongoing urban and industrial development increasing water demand from existing river system, ground water depletion is causing major issues in coastal areas and mountain areas need a different approach investment and support to deal with water issues. The impact of climate change is also present in decreasing precipitation and increasing likelihood of droughts. The potential for cross province transfers and similar structural projects is not an option for Liaoning hence as a province. Liaoning would be good pilot study to test the different systems and mechanisms for early warning, risk assessment and investment and rural compensation schemes for drought management. 1.2 Anhui Province

1.2.1 Key issues facing Anhui that increase exposure and vulnerability to drought

Anhui is a pilot province for drought management sub-centre, selected by SFCDRH. Considerable effort has been directed towards monitoring systems such as soil moisture monitoring. Anhui also undertook to develop drought emergency plans and was an early adapter of this approach. Despite this Anhui has serious problems dealing with water issues even though it has a relatively benign climate compared to Liaoning and Inner Mongolia. Overall demand for water exceeds supply. The information collected does not appear to be used for management purposes. The following were given as the issues for Anhui-

(1) Population growth and agricultural and, industrial development are increasing the gap between water supply and demand.

(2) The drought relief system is unable to meet the needs of social and economic development during drought

(3) Lacking effective controls, the trend of a deteriorating water environment continues. This aggravates conditions during drought.

(4) Water use efficiency is low and the management needs to be improved. 1.2.2 Drought Management Plans

In 2004, Anhui province completed the preparation of the Drought Control Plan for Anhui Province, the Anhui Flood Control and Drought Relief Contingency Plans and the drought control plans in the irrigation areas in Pishihang, Masan-si, the Cihui New River, Hualiangting, special plans for drought control and water diversion of the Yangtze River and the Huaihe River, as well as the amendment to the original flood control and drought relief plans in some cities. At present, there are 78 counties (cities and districts) that have completed the drought plans, of which 62 plans have passed examination and approval. The drought control plans system consists of three parts. The first part is the overall drought contingency plan covering industrial and agricultural production, and the domestic and ecological environment of urban and rural residents based on the provincial, city and county administrative units. The second part is the special plan for specific irrigation areas, rivers, cities, and ecology; and the third part is the specific implementation plan. Specific plans are a refinement and

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix E | 3 extension of the overall plan, while the implementation plan is intended to complement and improve the specific plan. The overall plan provides guidance to the specific plan and the implementation plans. The three are in different levels with different functions. All of them are interrelated but with their own particular emphasis. 1.2.3 Potential for Change

Anhui has been relatively innovative in drought management planning. The management plans focus on emergency and preparedness and are less based on a scientific risk assessment approach that limits the effectiveness of plans for longer term resilience. Anhui has a difficult set of choices because of the demand for water despite its relative advantages in supply compared to Liaoning and Inner Mongolia. Liaoning also has to deal with major river basins crossing the province and this will present challenges for the future water management and for drought in particular because of the cross jurisdiction issues. Adapting existing planing to a risk management framework is the major challenge. 1.2.4 Recommendation

Anhui has a relatively advanced planning process but is still struggling with water scarcity, easily exacerbated by drought. Anhui has a very mixed environment that includes mountains, flood plains and major river valleys and wide climatic range in the transition zone between north and south of China. Anhui has a high population density with increasing urbanisation and competition for water. Much of the agriculture is water intensive paddy rice whilst water intensive industries are also moving into the province. Hence competition and conflict over water will continue to be an issue and relatively small droughts from lack of precipitation will have an exaggerated impact. Drought mitigation plans focus mainly on controlling supply. Anhui is representative of much of southern and central China facing similar constraints and would be a good pilot to extend drought mitigation planning into early warning and demand management with detailed scenario analysis supported by land use planning to model water demand and allocation options into the future. 1.3 Inner Mongolia 1.3.1 Key issues facing Inner Mongolia that increase exposure and vulnerability to drought

Drought is the most common natural disaster with the most extensive and severe damage in Inner Mongolia. Severe drought occurs mainly in the central and western areas and most frequently occurs in the spring when precipitation is highly variable.

In recent years, the climate has been drier. With a rise of temperature and a reduction in precipitation, surface water runoff has been significantly reduced in the arid and semi-arid regions of Inner Mongolia. The average annual precipitation in Inner Mongolia was 309mm in the 1960s, 307mm in the 1970, and 289mm in the 1990s. i. Water use is wasteful and inefficient. This is a particularly important matter given the conditions of water scarcity.

The water consumption per capita is 75 percent higher than the national average. Agricultural irrigation water use efficiency is only about 35 percent, 10 percent lower than the national average. Leakage in the urban distribution system exceeds 20 percent, and in some cities it is up to 50 percent or more. ii. Gap between water supply and demand. Rapid economic and social development, especially the rapid development of industry has led to increasing competition for scarce water resources.

The development and utilization of non-conventional water resources, such as stormwater, recycled wastewater and flood waters is inadequate.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix E | 4 Much of the rainwater resources have not been used effectively. Centralized treatment rate of urban life sewage and industrial water recycle rate were of 49 percent and 45 percent respectively, lower than the national average. iii. Limited temporal and spatial regulation on water resources. The development and utilization rate of surface water is of only 8.8 percent. iv. Low efficiency of water resources utilization with few large water projects- The economic contribution from the first, the secondary and the tertiary industries is inversely proportional to water consumption. 1.3.2 Drought Management Plans

Inner Mongolia is developing drought management plans and a meteorological monitoring project has been implemented and is now in place. However, this does not appear to be used or considered useful for early warning systems at this point and considerable further work is needed to make the data collected useful through integration into a better modelling tool for early warning and risk assessment. Grazing is the major part of agricultural production and there are many established models to support grazing and rangeland recovery in drought situations that could be adapted for the province. 1.3.3 Potential for Change

Inner Mongolia presents an opportunity develop an early warning, monitoring and risk assessment model for extensive grazing in Western China using well established models used elsewhere to protect the incomes of farmers and the environment. Excess grazing is cause dust storms and other problems hence an improvement is needed. Although the water resources of Inner Mongolia have been explored and quantified to some extent, this information does not appear to be used for planning for agriculture of for urban and industrial growth. These factors need to be reconciled because the likelihood of drought is increasing from climate change and rainfall is declining. 1.3.4 Recommendation

Inner Mongolia forms part of a much larger catchment of the Yellow River although there are parts outside of that. It would make sense to increase the scope of a pilot to include the upper reaches of the Yellow River and encompass Inner Mongolia as part of that because the extensive grazing activities is a major part of the upper catchment and other provinces. Inner Mongolia has a variety of landscapes and is a major user of ground water hence the hydrology is important locally as well as regionally. Climate change across northern China is already felt in declining rainfall patterns and increasing temperature extremes, both affecting water supply from precipitation and longer term availability of ground water and surface storage potential. Land use mapping is a major task for monitoring drought through pasture impacts, soil moisture and changes in vegetation. The whole region is affected by the changing use patterns and climate impacts hence this would form an excellent regional scale pilot for testing many extensive grazing and land use models incorporating climate change scenarios. Early warning for grazing is extremely important for conserving pasture and water into a drought and monitoring through a drought.

The recommendation is that Inner Mongolia be part of a larger regional or upper catchment pilot for extensive grazing and climate change impacts as part of drought management. 1.4 Guizhou Province

Guiyang is the capital city of Guizhou province in South West China. This area was seriously affected by the recent drought in that region in 2009 and early 2010. This study focuses on the city of Guiyang and the visit undertaken after the other case studies in Liaoning, Anhui and Inner Mongolia were

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix E | 5 completed. The drought in the SW China provided the opportunity to look at the response and the longer term outcomes of the drought. Guiyang faces problems that also make it a sound but different pilot area for drought management, in particular through demand management and small scale investments in rural areas for improved water security. 1.4.1 Key issues facing Guiyang that increase exposure and vulnerability to drought

Although Guiyang is not generally considered to be a drought prone area, the recent drought highlighted the increasing vulnerability of the city and in particular the surrounding areas. Hence the impact of the drought and the outcomes are the focus of this study.

Guiyang is in the limestone karst formations that pose water storage problems due to the porous nature of the underlying limestone and the fractured nature of the topography. Although Guiyang has a relatively high rainfall, keeping the water in a reservoir or storage is not easy in this environment. Guiyang has several small reservoirs and significant hydropower production that relies on continual recharge from rainfall to maintain water levels and power generation. When rainfall declined, this was shown to be very vulnerable with hydropower generation ceasing completely from some reservoirs. Increasing storage in the municipality is difficult because new dam sites are limited and even when built, storage capacity is not great. Similarly, water transfers are undertaken regularly although these again have some limits. Ground water is less readily available from shallow and deep wells with shallow wells and underground storage common in rural areas, mainly for drinking water.

Drought also has a less understood impact in that some areas become unstable due to shrinkage and cracking affecting man made structures such as reservoirs and causing geological hazards such as landslides. These have a direct impact on villages, cropping areas and livestock and or can cause localised flooding when rain returns. This is particularly dangerous in rural areas and some emergency measures such as local storage may become local hazards at a later date. Increasing deforestation and other vegetation removal contributes to this problem.

Currently, provincial drought management still has some serious issues: Water resources are limited by geography, topography and geology:

Guiyang municipality has many small rivers and streams that are highly season. Most flow into the Yangtze to the north and the rest contribute to the Pearl River in the south. Rainfall varies from 1300 mm to 1000 mm on average with 85% falling in the months from April to September. The rivers have a high seasonal flow where flooding is an issue but then very low flow in the low season from December to February when little rain falls. While the rainfall is adequate, it is difficult to store because of the karst geology and the steep, fractured topography. Much of the rainfall moves into underground rivers and aquifers that quickly flow away from the area and are not readily usable locally. Reservoir storage is limited by the steep topography and the porous limestone. This limits storage capacity and longevity. Karst formations can also be unstable making reservoir wall construction difficult. Hence, the ability to build large on stream or off stream reservoirs is limited and the ability to capture the rainfall peak is also limited.

The average water supply per person is 1300 cubic meters compared to the national average of 1700 cubic meters. While these figures are not disastrous, they indicate that a different approach is needed to the use of water given the difficulty in storage. Land use patterns have increased problems:

Guiyang has a relatively small farming population, limited by the steep and fractured nature of the municipality. The small farmers use river valley and terracing for rice and vegetables. This is important locally although it is not considered a major food or grain producing area. Uplands and slopes are also

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix E | 6 used for forestry and grazing and this has led to exposure of slopes leading to severe erosion and landslides, especially during the high rainfall periods. Local water supplies and small reservoirs are adversely affected by this and programs are now in place to try to reafforest areas and prevent “desertification”.

Agriculture irrigation relies on small scale aging infrastructure that is inefficient and in poor condition with many systems abandoned. The area of irrigation is much lower than the national average (0.3mu compared to 0.8mu). Delivery efficiency is rated at approximately 40% although on farm efficiency is rated highly at approximately 90%. This indicates a failure of investment and maintenance of systems that is endemic to much of China, in particular in the more remote areas.

There are great opportunities to improve delivery efficiency in exiting systems and to develop and implement innovative systems for groups of farmers with a different approach to investment. Inability to Supply from within the Municipality:

Guiyang and related county towns need more water from outside the municipal boundaries, requiring water transfers on a regular basis. Some storage is built outside of the municipal boundaries. This presents challenges and opportunities. Pollution from upstream should be treated before it reaches the reservoir and similarly, forest and the environment around the storage should be protected and clean. However, the value of the storage does not accrue to the local area since the water is used downstream or transferred elsewhere. The responsibility of the local government in the storage area must be supported by the users in some way. Guiyang is trialling upstream compensation mechanisms to guarantee clean water into the storage.

This innovation is important in China because so much water is transferred across administrative boundaries and because so little water is adequately treated before discharge back into a river system. Currently only about 35% of waste water/effluent receives primary or further treatment. This means the water moving downstream needs expensive treatment for domestic, livestock or most industrial use.

Eco-compensation is being trialled in different parts of China with the efforts in Guiyang supported in part by the national level and in part as a local initiative. This approach is very important as part of wider drought and demand management approach as well as addressing pollution. Water demand and population growth:

Guiyang is experiencing continued growth in the main city areas as well as in the county townships. Water demand has increased substantially. System losses and unaccounted for supply are estimated to be between 20 and 38%. This is very high. Unaccounted for water could be lost or stolen, system losses are the result of poor infrastructure and maintenance. In an area where water supply is constrained addressing this is crucial to make savings.

The population of Guiyang is increasing at about 2.5% per annum and the rural and peri-urban population is moving into the city. The urban population increased from 47.9% of the total in 2000 to 60.5% in 2009. It is predicted that 78% of population will be urban by 2030. Hence the demand for water increased substantially as a result. Currently supply will struggle to meet this demand without major water demand management initiatives just for domestic use. Increased industrial and economic growth will exacerbate this problem. Water Use:

Guiyang is different from many other areas in that the proportion of water used for agriculture is relatively small while industrial use is large. Industry uses 53%, agriculture 31% of water, domestic urban12% and urban rural 4%. As agriculture continues to struggle and the rural population ages, this pattern is likely to be more pronounced in the future. Since the efficiency of water use on farm is

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix E | 7 relatively high, increasing efficiency in that area will have a negligible impact compared to other areas except for the high delivery losses due to poor infrastructure. When considered in relation to the above population patterns, the major areas to address are the urban areas and industrial use. This requires a demand management approach that is needed regardless of drought or water scarcity.

Impact of drought (see also the Addendum on Drought in SW China, Appendix 7)

Although the impact of the drought was severe on rural areas, Guiyang city was less impacted. Electricity generation for hydropower was seriously impacted and some industries were forced to use less water. Loss from industry exceeded agricultural losses (731 million Yuan to 540 million Yuan) indicating the importance of industry over agriculture. The impact on the rural population was severe with 1.28 million affected and 725,000 without adequate drinking water. There was complete loss of crop in the worse affected areas and 170,000 people needed grain rations to survive. Overall, the impact on the city residents was much less.

The shortcomings of the response to drought were given as (from the translated report from the Guiyang Water Resources Bureau) –

 The construction of infrastructure lags behind

 Some cadres and masses were not mindful of the potential crisis

 The ability of contingency management is not enough

The above clearly indicate a lack useful drought management planning and early warning and, a continued reliance upon increasing water supply through infrastructure. The obvious need for demand management is not mentioned. An extensive education campaign is needed for all users. 1.4.2 Drought Management Plans

Guiyang had some contingency plans that need an emergency to activate. By the time these were activated, many people were without drinking water in the rural areas. The response was in many ways too late because of a lack of useful early warning system and risk mapping of vulnerable areas to be monitored. An earlier response would have reduced some aspects of the impact although probably not on the reduction of cropping. Telling farmers to grow drought resistant crops when there is no water or rainfall is of propaganda benefit, not real benefit. If the dought had continued for a second year and the municipal reservoirs were not replenished, the city would have been without water unless all industry was stopped. This is why demand management in a much more coordinated way is necessary. 1.4.3 Potential for Change

There is significant improvement potential in Guiyang in two main areas. Improvement in the quality and maintenance of infrastructure that supplies water to all users is necessary to reduce waste. More importantly, comprehensive ongoing demand management to improve water use efficiency and conserve water across the spectrum of water users is needed.

Hence this is a good time to start the change process. 1.4.4 Recommendation

Guiyang has limited opportunity to increase water supply because of karst features in the environment and highly seasonal nature of the rainfall. Water transfers are also difficult without significant infrastructure. The reducing importance of agriculture and limited impact on food security of crop losses cannot be used to justify much large scale infrastructure for that purpose. Increasing urbanisation and resulting water use coupled with the predominance of industrial water use make

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix E | 8 Guiyang an ideal place to undertake a pilot in demand management for urban and industrial users. This can be supported by improving the early warning systems for drought as in other pilots and, trialling small scale water investments for rural users such as water tanks, village scale storage and improving efficiency in water use on farm.

Water demand management, regardless of drought, is critical for Guiyang going forward. Demand management for industry that incorporates pollution control and onsite recycling is necessary because industry is the main water user.

Guiyang should be a pilot that supports the early waning system and has a major demand management input with a different approach to investment in water infrastructure and water use efficiency measures for industry and urban users. 1.5 Design and Implementation of Pilots

Undertaking appropriate pilots to address wider drought issues is necessary to make the longer term changes towards risk assessment and management. These will provide the learning and developmental phase for scaling up and implementation across the country. Moving from the emergency response to risk management takes time and considerable change of emphasis and perspectives. The pilots will provide the means to do this by demonstrating the methods and approaches that can be applied and adapted elsewhere in the country. Designing the pilots is very important and the following points are highlighted for this reason. 1.5.4 Purpose

The purpose of the pilots is to develop and adapt the methods used elsewhere to the conditions in China and use these as a demonstration and a learning platform for implementing the changes necessary to undertake risk management for drought.

Pilots will have common elements such as the national level requirements as well as more specific elements that are applicable to regions and provinces or landforms and land use patterns. The methods used for the early warning, monitoring and decision support will be tested and scaleable to be used across China while the more specific elements can be used in similar environments. The implications of climate change will be incorporated into these. 1.5.5 Common Elements

Drought risk management is complex and the national level, through SFCDRH has a key role to play in supporting the provinces and river basin authorities in drought management decisions. The common elements listed below must be part of all pilots to make them replicable and relevant to both the national and lower level interest.

The following common elements should be included in the pilots-

Early warning systems - to monitor climatic conditions, soil moisture levels, stored water levels and so on to provide drought early warnings for use on a national basis, although these may start in a smaller context. These need to be based on sound data and models. Incorporating climate change impacts such as declining rainfall patterns is also part of this. This is a national level responsibility.

An early warning delivery mechanism through SFCDRH on a regular basis – initially this would be relevant for the specific pilot sites but this must become an integral part of the SFCDRH normal activities. This then leads to the decisions taken at the start of, during and after the drought to address water availability and control. This is a national level responsibility actioned through national and provincial agencies.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix E | 9 Scenario analysis - to allow priorities to be established to address risk and where to target mitigation for the greatest benefit as well as where water demand management needs to be addressed. Important in this is the use of alternative water sources such as waste water recycling. Scenario analysis allows a greater understanding of the likely impacts of climate change to be factored into the decision support mechanisms and early warning to make mitigation responses faster and more effective. This is a national level responsibility but must also be used to assess priorities for provincial level administration to address specific needs.

Integration of land use and water availability information – this information needs to be incorporated into common plans and scenario analysis so more specific activities on a local through regional scale can be investigated and planned to allow for water availability, water scarcity and mitigation for emergencies. Similarly, land use planners must take account the availabily of water resources in planning for development. This is largely a provincial role for drought planning. 1.5.6 Selection Criteria

Scalability and representativeness – pilots must be undertaken in a range of locations that allow for scaling up of the methods and mechanisms developed and tested. For this reason they must also represent a range of environments, scenarios and situations that will be encountered elsewhere in China. The initial pilot provinces used in this study do represent a range of environments and situations but are also constrained by provincial boundaries hence consideration should be given to other possibilities such as regional scale, river basin, mountainous and climate change susceptible areas.

Willingness to Participate and Availability of Information – it is essential that information needed to undertake modelling be available within that area and the province or region is willing to actively support and participate in the pilot. If information is not readily available then a pilot will not achieve its objectives. 1.5.7 Application of Specific Emphasis in Different Pilots

Specific areas can have a different emphasis - as well as the common themes. For example Inner Mongolia is part of the upper catchment of the Yellow River and is an area that is likely to be adversely affected by climate change. It is a largely grazing area where water resources are widely dispersed. Hence a pilot in Inner Mongolia (or the upper catchment of Yellow River) would include specific aspects of climate change scenarios, grazing management based on climate/soil moisture/pasture models and regional land use applications for spatial data and land use planning.

At least three specific areas need to be covered- largely grazing and rangeland where climate change is a factor; a more or less defined catchment that has mixed land use, mountains and major urban development and, one where population pressure is affecting water availability increasing susceptibility to drought making drought risk management more complex. A regional context and or a river basin context should be part of one pilot. Demand management should be a part of these and/or could be a specific pilot where urban and industrial water use exceeds agriculture in importance and is the main water user placing increasing demands on a limited supply.

Suggested pilot sites

 Upper Yellow River catchment incorporating Inner Mongolia

 Liaoning as discrete province and catchment with mountainous area and mixed agriculture, industrial and urban areas

 One other where managing drought is essential to limit a crisis where water scarcity and conflict is increasing

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix E | 10  The recent drought in the S W of China highlights general vulnerability and need to move to a risk management approach to drought as well the difficulties of providing water security in mountainous areas. These require innovative local solutions that should include comprehensive demand management. 1.5.8 Design of Pilots for another TA Input

 Designing the pilots should be the next step in the progression towards risk assessment and management.

 Since the implementation of the pilots should involve agencies and institutions outside of MWR and SFCDRH, these institutions should be consulted during the design phase. Ensuring cooperation will be necessary.

 Pilots should also seek to address some or most of the key constraints given in Chapter 10. It is not expected that each pilot will address all of these because some, such as institutional and systemic ones, may be longer term in nature.

 Outcomes of each pilot will vary depending on the specific emphasis included and they should all support the common themes for national uniformity and replication.

 Pilots should include international practices and models as well as Chinese models and practices to get the best methods for development. A set of internal and external donors should be considered that bring the breadth of expertise needed.

 Education and training is an integral part of pilots, especially in the later stages of implementation and must be incorporated into designs.

 Pilots should include options for increasing the portfolio of alternative water sources that increase the resilience and diversification of supply under drought conditions as an outcome.

 Pilots should include wider issues specific to particular problems such as grazing management in extensive grazing areas or small scale water storage and water banking in mountainous area and demand management as part of risk management in areas where supply will always be constrained such as areas in the karst formations that limit reservoir storage systems..

 Pilots should encompass the intent of the DRR and enhance the importance of drought in water management issues.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix E | 11 Appendix F

Policy Brief 1. Introduction

China has a good historical record of droughts and impacts over a long period of time that shows the susceptibility of the country to drought over time. Recorded droughts have resulted in serious loss of life, livestock and agricultural production. The drought in Yunnan, Guangxi and Guizhuo Provinces in 2009/10 highlights the susceptibility even in areas not generally considered drought prone.

China has focussed heavily on engineering solutions to address water supply and limit drought impacts. However, many parts of the country do not have readily available water sources amenable to engineering type approaches. Similarly, there is limited scope for further engineering type solutions in most parts of the country. This has demonstrated a supply oriented approach but increasing supply is increasingly difficult or not feasible in much of China today. Hence a move to demand management to conserve supply is necessary as population increases general demand for water, increasing competition and water scarcity.

Drought is a multifaceted problem that is affecting more parts of society, industry and peoples well being on a regular basis in China. There is confusion between a drought as defined by a lack of precipitation across an area and, a wider water scarcity issue caused by demand exceeding supply. This can be at local level such as a few weeks without rainfall for crops at critical periods through to the need for major water diversions to supply cities or major releases of water upstream to limit sea water intrusion into coastal water systems exacerbated by over extraction of groundwater..

The reliance on ground water for much of agricultural production and for drought mitigation is increasing long term vulnerability as ground water reserves are over exploited in different parts of the country. Although this is known, the regulation of ground water is difficult and often is not considered as part of the surface water system. Ground water extraction leads to other problems including subsidence and salt water encroachment in fresh aquifers from the sea. Pollution of ground water from untreated waste is a long term issue. Current use of ground water also hides the real state of water scarcity and need to improve water demand management.

These are not new issues and have been raised many times in reports, including Qian and Zhang et all (2002) “Comprehensive Report of Strategy on Water Resources For China’s Sustainable Development”; Shalizi (2006) “Addressing China’s Growing water Shortages and Associated Social and Environmental Consequences” and; “Addressing China’s Water Scarcity: Recommendations for Selected Water Resource Management Issues” (2009). 2. Drought risk management versus drought disaster management

The difference between drought risk management and drought disaster management is the management timeframe and actions taken:

Risk management is a proactive approach and is focused on the design of measures in advance of a drought that are intended to be put in place to prevent or mitigate the level of risk exposure and hence vulnerability to impacts. This approach seeks to build resilience in the systems to cope better in the future through structural and non structural measures on an ongoing basis.

Disaster management is a reactive approach based on the implementation of measures and actions after a drought disaster is recognised. This approach applies to emergency situations and is likely to produce inefficient technical and economic solutions since actions are taken under stress without the time to adequately evaluate options. This tends to support dependence on emergency relief measures rather than resilience.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix F | 1 Historically, the risk of drought was generally associated with farming and grazing but this has changed because population increase and development is placing pressure on both food production (that requires water and irrigation on farms) and the need for increasing volumes of water for communities and industrial use. Hence drought risk is increasing with increased water scarcity and competition from available sources with new supply potential already limited. Climate change is increasing risk of scarcity and drought.

Figure 1 below outlines the difference between a reactive and proactive approach for drought management. The proactive approach is more complicated but supports a longer term outcome compared to the reactive approach. It leads to improved resilience, better planning and more timely actions.

Figure 1 Comparison of the reactive and proactive approach to drought issues.

REACTIVE APPROACH

Monitoring of present Perception of drought Search of emergency Implementation of water resources event onset measures to be emergency measures availability adopted (to be reinforced if drought continues

PROACTIVE APPROACH

Evaluation of long- term water resources availability Assessment of water Evaluation of drought Plan of long-term deficiency risk impacts on societal preventive actions sectors (risk-based water resources plan) Evaluation of future water requirements Plan of short-term actions (contingency plan) Monitoring of hydro- meteorological variables Early warning of Implementation of potential water short-term action plan shortages Monitoring of present water resources availability

Recent Drought in South West

The drought in South West China of 2009/2010 highlights the need for a more proactive approach that encompasses early warning, monitoring, forecasting and risk assessment; risk mapping and drought risk management plans that can better address drought for the more vulnerable groups, not just those along main rivers. Around 20 million people were without a drinking water supply. This highlights the need for a different funding mechanism to address water security needs in vulnerable areas and different operating/management arrangements from SFCDRH and DWR to support better preparedness for drought.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix F | 2 3. Drought Risk Management - An Outline

Drought risk management is based the following steps and actions-

 Early Warning ,Monitoring and Forecasting

 Risk Assessment

 Risk Mitigation

Demand Management

Drought Supply Enhancement

 Impact Mitigation and Emergency Responses

 Recovery, Evaluation and Contingency Planning

 Stakeholder Participation and Public Education and Awareness

This approach has been developed and tested internationally and applied to different national contexts. Countries vary in application and emphasis; China is a diverse country and this strategy will need to be developed and tested within that diverse context.

Rationale and Key Issues

China has an existing institutional structure, policy and regulatory framework and an emergency response network in place. However, this is operating in a reactive manner not a proactive manner and is not capable of addressing the longer term issues needed to develop resilience within the system to cope with a wide spread, multi-year drought. This is because the cycle of actions and learning lacks the comprehensive early warning and risk assessment mechanisms necessary to inform the planning process and to guide actions before, during and after a drought. These go well beyond the emergency reaction plans and mitigation preparedness within the existing system.

Key Issues and Actions to be addressed

Key Issues Actions required Outcomes Timeframe expected

Legal and Policy Ongoing support

Clarification and Standard interpretation guidelines and formalised for DRR operating and related policies procedures and regulations.

Institutions Ongoing

Institutions Clarification of Agreed chains of SFCDRH roles and command and cooperation actions MWR between partners DWR

RBC

Provincial Gov

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix F | 3 Local Gov

Science and Ongoing, regular Technical Support input into early warnings and risk assessment

Proactive planning Development of Regular meetings and monitoring of scientifically sound between partners drought scenarios methods and lead by SFCDRH to mechanisms for provide information early warning and on potential and drought monitoring emerging drought situation so actions Cooperation and can be initiated coordination between partners and researchers to develop, test and verify models and systems

Addressing drought Identification of Drought risk Before drought hazards at different areas at risk in mapping and early occurs levels general and warning system emerging specific established and hot spots across implemented. the country Warning issued through partners to affected areas and agencies

Drought Risk Before and during Mitigation droughts Planning and actions

Addressing Cooperation Agreed actions to exposure at between partners conserve and different levels to manage and maintain water conserve water; suppliers in case of education and prolonged drought awareness Supporting a water programs, water saving society saving initiatives (ongoing) across all sectors, waste water treatment

Funding and During droughts Ongoing

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix F | 4 mitigation

Addressing Initiating support Social and other vulnerability at plans for affected support different levels communities, water mechanisms in users place

Recovery from Supporting Funds used to Drought mechanisms for support recovery, communities and security nets individuals in place

Research, Ongoing Analysis and Information from impact and recovery for better planning and mitigation

Undertaking Monitoring and Information base is reviews and analysis of drought improved and lessons analysed scenario and actions refined for for future planning impacts undertaken future planning and response by partners

Developing and issuing Drought Risk Management Plans

Development and Following the Drought Completes the issue of risk general guidelines management learning cycle management given, these move planning is before the next planning and action planning forward proactive rather drought occurs for provinces and into a risk than reactive, river basins framework starting response to emerging drought much earlier

4. Action Plan to move toward a risk management approach

The purpose of this action plan is to provide a guide for SFCDRH and MWR to support changes in the approach to drought management utilising risk management methodologies. There is considerable basic research and effort needed to support this change and there no quick fixes or easy solutions. 4.1 Short term Objectives

The immediate short term objective is build viable models for validation for drought forecasting, risk mapping, hazard and scenario analysis for three pilot areas covering drought. The models would utilise and build on existing work that is adapted to China and replicable across China. Incorporating

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix F | 5 international experience and expertise would be an important part of the pilots as there are many aspects to be considered. In conjunction with the pilots, discussions need to take place on how to implement change and the future role of SFCDRH in proactive drought risk management and this can be achieved.

Outcomes from the pilots would feed into the longer term objectives in an ongoing basis. 4.2 Long Term Objectives

The long term objective is have a proactive drought risk management mechanism in place to better cope with emerging water shortages and potential drought events. This can to be part of an integrated water resource management process that integrates information systems to manage the exposure and vulnerability to drought. The role of SFCDRH needs to be strengthened with a clear role in monitoring, early warning and coordination of water resources for drought mitigation conserve water in case of multi year droughts.

This system will allow for the impacts of global climate change to be better monitored for drought. The impact of continued urbanisation on demand for water resources will increase in importance in managing drought impacts and this approach will support better management of water resources to cope with this. 4.2.1 Principles:

1. To move from a reactive to a proactive approach using risk management practices that also support mitigation and reduce exposure and vulnerability through improved decision support tool and better understanding of complex issues involved

2. To develop a sound knowledge base and field tested models for monitoring drought for early warning through to coordinated actions that incorporated agriculture and other water users that is adaptable to conditions throughout China

3. To develop and clarify planning and implementation of drought mitigation, responses and analysis through the MWR and SFCDRH systems to cope with increasing drought including impact of climate change

4. To support the training and awareness of staffs in understanding science, methodologies and outputs from the systems to raise capacity within the systems

5. To promote water demand management and other water saving mechanisms with an emphasis on drought

Actions and Responsible Groups to Address shortfalls in current system and move to a risk management system

Action Responsible Groups Suggested Timeframes

Design the 3 pilot projects SFCDRH, MWR As soon as possible as suggested in Final Provinces, other Report. possible donors

Find the funding for Pilots SFCDRH, MWR Concurrent with Design and and agree on cooperation Provinces other agreed cooperation and implementation with possible donors provinces and other agencies such as meteorology and

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix F | 6 agriculture

Commence the pilots As above As soon as possible

Establish Unit within SFCDRH and IWHR Establish in year 1 to support SFCDRH/ IWHR that pilots and training conducts research and develops methodology for drought information and decision support tools, provides early warning and scenario analysis to SFCDRH and MWR and related agencies.

Undertake a review of SFCDRH, MWR and Commence in first year of the existing and past activities pilot implementers pilots that relate to water savings, demand management and similar activities at national and provincial level and assess outcomes and effectiveness for inclusion in pilots as these progress

Implement the pilots over As Above Ongoing three years in conjunction with Provincial offices and water management agencies

Undertake water user SFCDRH, Provincial Commence in year 1 of pilots surveys (agricultural, urban and local bureau so results can be fed into pilots and industrial) and assess and later plans understanding of water saving and means for introducing water saving mechanisms such as water pricing and recycling of waste water

Develop a drought Pilot staffs in Commence from year 2 of management plan for each conjunction with pilots as the data and province based on pilot Provinces and information becomes outcomes and other SFCDRH available, to include detailed activities that incorporated maps and scenario analysis risk management starting functions with early warning, water conservation and demand management with ongoing

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix F | 7 monitoring and management before, during and after drought situations

Conduct a national As above with MWR, At the end of Year 2 workshop and present pilot IWHR findings, prepare research papers and a comprehensive report on outcomes and further development needs (pilots ongoing to refine approach and serve as a base for training and demonstration activities

Prepare guidelines for SFCDRH and MWR Around end of year 1 to implementation of risk coincide with training start up management within DRR for dissemination

Develop training programs Pilot staffs and Towards the end of year 2 as for SFCDRH staff and SFCDRH information and outcomes are other water managers at all available as demonstration levels that incorporate pilot tools approaches and lessons into SFCDRH activities and plans

Implement the training Pilot staffs. IWHR, Commence year 3 of pilots programs from year three SDRFCH of the pilots so the risk management approach can be spread across the other provinces

Establish a unit within IWHR, SFCDRH Establish in year one to SFCDRH/IWHR that support the pilots and develop conducts research and and test methodologies develops methodology for drought information and decision support tools and provides early warning and scenario analysis to SFCDRH and MWR and related agencies.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix F | 8 Establish a unit in SFCDRH Establish in year two to assist SFCDRH that undertakes development of materials and education and training on implement when ready into drought management and year three water saving technology and monitors ongoing efforts towards a water saving society

Prepare final report of first Pilot staff, IWHR, End of year three three years and conduct an SFCDRH international workshop

After appropriate review, SFCDRH, MWR Commence in year four extend the risk management approach to drought management across provinces with necessary funding.

4.2.2 Expected Outcomes

This is an iterative process that will develop expertise within the system and lead to drought risk management plans that go beyond the current mitigation and emergency response plans to make communities and institutions more proactive and resilient in the face of drought, rather than declaring an emergency and waiting for support to arrive.

The pilots suggested provide a vehicle to learn and develop the models and systems in different contexts within China so the mechanisms can be applied across China in a scaling up process. 4.2.3 Timeframe

The initial piloting, learning, training and adaptation would take 3 years and the scaling up could then be addressed depending on the resources and the experience gained from the pilots. 4.2.4 Conclusion and Recommendations

China is facing increasing water shortages from increased economic and population growth that will be exacerbated by drought. The ability to increase supply is limited hence a better means of preparedness and coping with drought is needed because a major multi year drought will occur again with major widespread impacts in the coming years.

The recommendation is that China should start the process of adapting the risk management approaches used elsewhere, through a piloting phase, to be better prepared for a future drought with a proactive monitoring, early warning, forecasting, planning and demand management system for drought China also needs to invest in mechanisms for water security that supports the most vulnerable communities that are currently not well serviced to lessen impacts and fosters fast recovery from drought. The drought in S.W. China highlights the need for a change for better outcomes that go beyond emergency responses once a crisis develops.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix F | 9 Appendix G

Handbook 1. Introduction

Drought is a feature of the climate in China and severe droughts with major social impacts have occurred regularly in recorded history. Despite the enormous effort put into development of water capture, storage and management in China, droughts are still impacting upon the community, agriculture and industry and, hydropower production. The impacts of drought is managed through the State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters (SFCDRH) as part of an emergency and disaster relief process that has been good at coping with short term needs after an emergency has been declared but does not prepare adequately for a multiyear widespread drought. The emergency response and mitigation planning process is well established but is not focused on water conservation and demand management through a risk management approach. It is focussed on relief efforts during and after disaster and putting in place measure to be prepared for the next disaster event. Much of the preparedness is based on ground water sources.

Unfortunately groundwater is over utilized in many places and cannot sustain current extraction. This leaves large areas at much higher risk in a multiyear drought situation when ground water is further depleted and/or becomes unavailable. Recovery from a drought including replenishment of ground water reserves and river flows is crucial to reducing the ongoing impact of drought. Similarly, many areas away from major rivers or water courses are not well serviced and not easy to service with the current approach of essentially larger scale structural efforts.

Drought is now acknowledged as the single largest natural disaster affecting agriculture in China with impacts on food security and economic development. Water scarcity is often confused with drought and will be exacerbated by drought. In excess of 400 small to medium cities are faced with ongoing water scarcity in 2010.

China recently issued the Drought Relief Regulations (DRR, 2009) that set out the general management of drought management activities within a disaster management approach. These leave the implementation of the regulations to the provincial and lower levels. The DRR lack specifics but provide considerable scope for interpretation and support the application of science of prediction, definitions and monitoring in drought management. Although not specifically stated this allows a more risk management oriented approach to be developed for drought compared to the current disaster management approach.

Internationally, risk management has become the main policy and approach to drought management coupled with detailed early warning and monitoring, planning and on ground implementation of water saving and efficiency tools to conserve water supplies going into a drought and longer term demand management through integrated planning and actions, not just in a drought emergency situation.

The impact of climate change is an emerging factor to be considered in the drought management strategy. Climatic models give different predictions for already drought prone areas of China. However, even if favourable, models that show very moderate increases in rainfall are considered, this outcome will not change the likelihood of serious water shortages and the impact of drought. Higher temperatures will continue to exacerbate the situation by increasing water use in agricultural, urban and industrial areas.

A comprehensive management approach that incorporates early warnings, risk assessment and mitigation, increasing water use efficiency and savings in agriculture, household and industrial users coupled with better monitoring and evaluation mechanisms will be necessary to cope with increased demand from existing supplies and to limit the impacts of multi-year drought.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix G | 1 International experience suggests this is an iterative process that takes time to adapt to different contexts. China has the advantage of an existing system, policies and regulations and can adapt the models and experiences from elsewhere relatively quickly. 2. Concept of Risk Management versus Disaster Management Proactive vs. Reactive Approaches

The difference between drought risk management and drought disaster management is the management timeframe and the incorporation of the assessment of risk into planning and actions, supported by a sound scientific decision support toolkit adapted for the local through to regional context. This allows better planning because the areas at highest risk can be assessed and different actions taken in advance of a drought to limit impacts as much as possible.

Risk management is a proactive approach and is focused on the design of measures in advance of a drought that are intended to be put in place to prevent or mitigate the level of risk exposure and hence vulnerability to impacts. This approach seeks to build resilience in the systems to cope better in the future through structural and non structural measures on an ongoing basis.

Disaster management is a reactive approach based on the implementation of measures and actions after a drought disaster is recognised. This approach applies to emergency situations and is likely to produce inefficient technical and economic solutions since actions are taken under stress without the time to adequately evaluate options. This tends to support dependence on emergency relief measures rather than resilience.

Historically, the risk of drought was generally associated with farming and grazing but this has changed because population increase and development is placing pressure on both food production (that requires water and irrigation on farms) and the need for increasing volumes of water for communities and industrial use. The increased pressure on the overall environment by population pressure makes the risk much wider and the need for better management approaches more acute. This means that many areas that were previously not considered as a serious drought risk are now at risk. The risk may also be from water scarcity that is ongoing and would be exacerbated by drought events.

Figure 1 below outlines the difference between a reactive and proactive approach for drought management. The proactive approach is more complicated but supports a longer term outcome compared to the reactive approach. It leads to improved resilience, better planning and more timely actions.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix G | 2 REACTIVE APPROACH

Monitoring of present Perception of drought Search of emergency Implementation of water resources event onset measures to be emergency measures availability adopted (to be reinforced if drought continues

PROACTIVE APPROACH

Evaluation of long- term water resources availability Assessment of water Evaluation of drought Plan of long-term deficiency risk impacts on societal preventive actions sectors (risk-based water resources plan) Evaluation of future water requirements Plan of short-term actions (contingency plan) Monitoring of hydro- meteorological variables Early warning of Implementation of potential water short-term action plan shortages Monitoring of present water resources availability

Figure 1 Comparison of the reactive and proactive approach to drought issues 3. Drought Risk Management for China (An informed scientific proactive approach)

International experience, developed over many years of testing and adaptation in different country contexts has a framework outlined below-

 Early Monitoring and Forecasting

 Risk Assessment

 Risk Mitigation

Demand Management

Drought Supply Enhancement

 Impact Mitigation and Emergency Responses

 Recovery, Evaluation and Contingency Planning

 Stakeholder Participation and Public Education and Awareness

This recognises that droughts will reoccur in the future and a cyclical self informing process is needed to address this ongoing need. At present, the system in China does not effectively complete the circle because a comprehensive early warning, monitoring and risk assessment process is not in place that can provide early warning of a developing drought, identify areas most at risk and take appropriate actions at an early stage, including many years before a drought.

There are many myths and misunderstandings about drought and drought management issues in China that an informed scientific proactive approach can address more effectively than the current system. This will need a significant change in approach, thinking and funding from the existing system.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix G | 3 Common misconceptions, developed from discussions and field observations around China include the following-

1. The ongoing confusion between drought and water scarcity. A better understanding of drought is needed to effectively address water scarcity as well as drought. The risk assessment undertaken as part of risk management will provide the basis for defining areas most at risk or more vulnerable to drought and these can be resourced accordingly to address the risk.

2. The increasing water scarcity regardless of drought. China has a significant pool of people continually at risk of limited drinking. These people are very vulnerable and they are very poorly serviced by the existing water resource systems, often because they are away from the major river systems and reservoirs. These groups need a different approach to water resources management. They are the most marginalised group and the first and most seriously affected by drought. Examples are the mountainous and remote areas of China.

3. There are many cities that are very vulnerable to drought because of the existing water allocation mechanisms and waste within the system. If water is scarce in normal periods then scarcity will be exacerbated by drought. The approach has usually been to try to find more water through ground water use or major transfers from elsewhere. This use pattern tend to become a permanent feature and then no longer available in a drought situation. This approach is not sustainable in the longer term as a management tool for drought. Drought risk management also supports a better allocation of water resources and water demand management.

4. The belief that weather forecasting is not accurate enough to be of use. Forecasts are only a part of an early warning system and must be used as part of a modelling construct that is adapted for different locations and land use patterns. Even if a forecast is inaccurate and rainfalls to break a potential drought, this is a good outcome, not a failure and the water conserved is a bonus. Early warnings are needed to limit the impact of drought and the situation in South West of China in 2010 demonstrates the need for an early warning system to conserve water before the emergency is declared.

5. The belief that drought will not have a major impact because of all the engineering and physical structures that are in place now. This myth has been disproved by drought elsewhere in the world because population and development continually increase water use while supply is a finite constraint. China is now experiencing the reality of that with the push for economic development and population growth increasing demand resulting in infrastructure struggling to cope. Water saving in existing systems and uses and, water recycling to usable standards across the country would benefit a great number of people and shore up supply for drought conditions as well.

6. Climate change is happening and will continue to impact on water availability across China. The declining rainfall pattern across much of northern China is an example of this. Much of the grain production is sources from across this area and continued decline in rainfall will impact on food security especially during droughts. This also increases pressure on ground water use as a substitute for surface water. The impact of the drought of 2001 -2002 across the north east demonstrates this clearly such as the decline in grain production in Liaoning. Understanding the vulnerability to drought can include the impacts on food production as part of a modelling process for risk assessment.

7. A major widespread multi year drought will have a major impact on China, regardless of the current development and infrastructure. The development of China has increased water use significantly and population has also increased. This has made the country more vulnerable to a major drought, regardless of the infrastructure. The history of the water supply for Beijing is an example of the effectiveness of infrastructure over time. The initial reservoirs supplied Beijing and Tianjin as well

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix G | 4 as agriculture in the local areas, now they struggle to supply just Beijing and this is similar in many other places, hence the increase in water scarcity often cited with some 400 small to medium cities short of water on a regular basis.

8. Provincial planning alone is also not enough to deal with the above scale of drought and regional/national level planning and action will be required as well as provincial and lower level plans and actions. Discussions with the provincial SFCDRH staff indicate that they understand they have no mechanism to cope with multi year wide spread drought.

9. The use of ground water has masked the real situation of water supply in many parts of China because there is a common misunderstanding that ground water is somehow different from surface water. The over use of ground water from aquifers that cannot be recharged quickly will become a major issue in a multiyear drought if this reserve is not longer readily available through over use. Ground water pollution is an extremely serious related issue because pollution can make the reserve unusable or expensive to use.

10. The existing emergency response system needs significant changes to adapt to a risk management approach and a major learning by doing effort for staffs are needed as part of that. Staffs within the system have little understanding of the principles and practices for risk management. This will take time work through the system. Undertaking pilots as a vehicle for learning from and to adapt approaches used elsewhere is a recognised and acceptable mechanism in China.

11. Drought is now recognised as the largest natural disaster impact on agriculture in China with serious implications for food security. The impact of drought on the wider ecology such as wet lands and desertification are equally important. Measures are needed to address these through risk management and a better understanding of drought so future generations have a better resource base and natural environment.

12. The increasing impact on agriculture is placing farmers and rural communities in serious financial hardship. Methods of reducing or mitigating this impact through crop insurance and similar compensation or support mechanisms need to be investigated. Private insurance is unlikely to cover longer term drought (those of more than one year) alone hence provincial based schemes through the Finance Bureau or similar need to be tested and or a national scheme combined with province and private sector should also be investigated. Crop insurance and similar measure need to be supported by risk assessment and monitoring mechanisms to validate claims. Without such a mechanism, crop insurance and or compensation across large areas is not viable option.

13. Existing investment ideas and approaches focused on engineering solutions are not able to cope with increasing water scarcity without major non structural supporting mechanisms to better manage and conserve water for drought situations. Similarly, areas that are currently poorly serviced such as mountainous and rural areas need innovative local solutions to address water shortage and security that requires a change in attitude and approach from water resource bureaus because new supply is not always an option or the mos cost effective option.

14. Drought risk management plans are needed at national/regional scales and then down through the system to effectively deal with multi year drought impacts. These will go beyond the current mitigation and emergency plans because they will be better informed and supported for decision making efforts. Drought does not respect provincial or other administrative boundaries.

15. Cooperation and coordination across departments, bureaus and ministries is necessary to address drought in a proactive manner, it cannot be just confined to SFCDRH or MWR. If this is possible in an emergency, it should also be possible on a regular basis for better management outcomes.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix G | 5 4 Supporting Better Outcomes for Drought Management

Effective drought risk management requires an integrated combination of measures related to prevention, mitigation, and preparedness for responses. These measures allow the government to anticipate, respond to, and help areas recover from the impact of drought conditions. The sections below describe the main components to support a Drought Risk Management Framework Characteristics and Stages of Risk Management

Approach - Drought risk management begins with taking steps ahead of time to reduce and mitigate drought impacts. These steps cover all phases that occur: before, during and after a drought. The main components are described below.

Drought Early Monitoring and Forecasting -

Reliable scientific early forecasting and a drought warning system are critical to taking actions that will reduce drought-induced impacts. A monitoring system of drought indicators will provide an early warning of emerging drought conditions months in advance of the normal dry season. These data and the warnings on projected dry conditions then should be provided to decision makers, stakeholders, such as large water suppliers and the public. Monitoring should begin at the onset of the normal wet season and announcements should be made on a monthly basis.

Early warning allows water suppliers to advise of projected water shortfalls in allocations to different sectors and implement drought contingency plans including water savings and rationing. The more water that is saved in advance of drought, the more that will remain in storage to be used later or by others who have greater need. Urban and industrial users will understand that they need to reduce household use and improve efficiency per unit of production. Farmers will have time to make decisions about the purchase of seeds, how much to plant or a change in crops. Livestock owners may decide to reduce their herds. Technical advice can be offered to all of these groups on how to best reduce their vulnerability. The following steps are important in early warning and preparedness:

 Preparedness and Planning - Alter the current pattern of responses to drought. At present these warnings are viewed as “too late to do anything” because rains have already failed, water is already scarce and doing something largely refers to structural measures that take too long to implement. Crops may already have been planted. A change to risk management requires making preparedness plans and taking steps in water conservation in advance of the actual drought so that water can be stored and usage reduced to extend the value of existing sources throughout the drought.

 Forecasting - Improve the reliability of drought criteria, data collection, monitoring and analysis, and the quality of forecasting and modelling. The criteria should be based on type of water source and watershed. For example, an area that gets all its water from its local watershed as surface water runoff would use precipitation indicators. Other river basins may be affected by the level and water content of snow pack, surface water runoff to upstream reservoirs, local precipitation and allocations of water diverted from other systems.

 Climate Change – The results from models for climate change should be incorporated into the forecasting for drought.

 Monitoring - Beginning 3 to 6 months in advance of the dry season, monitoring must be systematically updated to agencies and the public on a monthly basis so that water suppliers, industry and households have an opportunity to adjust and make decisions.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix G | 6  Training - Make forecasts available for major river systems and smaller watersheds. Train local officials in small watershed in establishing local criteria for monitoring and forecasting systems based on local conditions.

 Early Warning System and Public Education- Convert the forecasts into a systematic early warning system focusing on the education of agencies and stakeholders on the meaning, usefulness and appropriate early implementation of contingency responses to warnings.

 Use drought forecasting results as an input to Drought Risk Assessment.

Risk Assessment Methodology/Model

Any response to drought must determine when conditions warrant a government response. A drought forecasting system (above) provides a meteorological and hydrological warning of dry conditions to different groups of stakeholders, from water suppliers to individual consumers, so that they can introduce a decrease in water supply into their decision making.

Results of Risk Assessment Method - When drought forecasting is incorporated into a risk assessment methodology, the result is a tool for officials to identify potential damage and economic losses by area and sector based on the level of risk due to hazard, exposure and vulnerability. As a result, priorities can be set for government focus, action and assistance. These priorities should be reflected in the warning system, advance mitigation efforts, drought relief plans and services, and eventual compensation.

Model Inputs and Results – Because drought is an area-specific phenomenon, the risk assessment model combines water conditions and water sources with land use information to identify who or what could be affected. For example, for urban domestic use, the population is included; for agriculture, the type of crops grown and soil conditions are included; for industrial use, the type of production and output are utilized. The result is a risk assessment map showing different types and degrees of impact. The quality of the results depends on the specificity and quality of the information provided. As information improves or conditions changes, these changes are incorporated to reflect them.

Additional Benefits of a Risk Assessment Model - Different scenarios can be modelled. This may allow a comparison of conditions with and without the drought so that compensation for losses is defined spatially by drought conditions, and not other, unrelated, conditions. Scenarios can be tested in advance for contingency planning for projected impacts of continuing drought and different rainfall patterns.

Frequently, in drought years, unless restricted, water supply system and groundwater use by different sectors may actually rise to compensate for the drier climate. Such actual water use can be metered and monitored by water suppliers so that actual consumption numbers can be introduced in the risk assessment model to improve predictions.

Sectors to be Included in Risk Assessment - Drought is an area-wide phenomenon that has different types of impacts on various sectors. From a national, regional and provincial perspective, the impacts on all of these sectors must be considered. In a regional drought, it is expected that all of these sectors would be affected and all of them will directly, or indirectly, affect the population, social quality of life and economic development.

 Domestic

 Industrial

 Commercial and Institutional

 Public Health and Safety

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix G | 7  Energy

 Agriculture

 Ecosystems

 Wildfire

 Recreation

Specific Tasks – Tasks associated with the Risk Assessment Methodology include:

 Review of international and national Risk Assessment Models

 Development and design and testing of model

 Staff training in approach, needs, data collection

 Pilot projects to test, adapt and validate models and methods in different locations

Risk Management and Mitigation

The primary objective of drought risk management is to mitigate--lessen or limit—the adverse impacts of drought.

Before the Drought Mitigation Planning - Risk and impact mitigation should start before a drought. Identifying where the drought impacts are likely to occur, and whom the impacts will affect, helps policymakers, farmers, industries and others to be better prepared in focusing the implementation of their risk mitigation plans. Central and provincial officials can focus on areas with the greatest predicted losses and integrate the management of different sectors, such as energy and industry, or the regulation of reservoirs to minimize the combined impact.

Stakeholder Meetings and Technical Assistance - Officials can begin to implement technical assistance and stakeholder meetings for sectors in vulnerable areas designed to educate people in how to reduce risk: Local water suppliers can see how different groups of customers will be affected and implement early requirements and programs for water savings to preserve available supplies.

Timing – It is critical that these plans are ready for implementation before a drought. Different levels of mitigation should already have been designed to fit with possible levels of drought severity. For example, if a forecast is made for a “dry” season, three months before it occurs, officials may choose to initiate voluntary conservation in an urban area. This may change to moderate rationing, if forecasts are made for a drought one month before the dry season.

Preparing these plans early has several advantages: It allows a broader range of options to be considered, tested and implemented before it is “too late” for their consideration; requirements established before a crisis are less likely to be challenged in the midst of a crisis; and people will be required to make changes in an earlier phase that will help in preventing drought impacts.

Categories of Drought Risk Mitigation Measures – Risk mitigation measure should be prepared for the categories shown below. These include demand management (non-structural conservation measures) and water supply enhancement projects (structural) appropriate for drought management. A comprehensive list of detailed non-structural and structural measures within each of the categories below has been designed and may be found below under Framework .:

 Policies, Regulations and Legal Requirements

 Organization, Management, Operation and Coordination Mechanisms

 Drought Preparedness Plans for Urban Areas, Agriculture and Pasture

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix G | 8  Non-Structural Water Savings Measures and Practices For:

Water Supplier and Utility Operations

Residential Use

Commercial, Industrial, Public Use

Agriculture

 Diversification of Water Supplies for Drought Including:

Wastewater Treatment and Water Reuse

Rain/Stormwater Catchments

Groundwater Banking

Local Ponds and Wells

Desalination and Mobile Desalination Units

 Improved System Flexibility for Drought

Integrated Regional management Agreements

Reservoir Operational Efficiency

Conjunctive Use of Ground and Surface Water

Drought Water Bank

Impact Mitigation During the Drought – Some impacts can be prevented by taking action before a drought and other impacts can be mitigated to reduce the losses. For example, measures that reduce wasteful water use or increase efficiency should have no impact upon quality of life or production. These measures must be supported during a drought to ensure their effectiveness by providing education, technical and some financial assistance.

Targeted Services - Other losses from drought may still occur and will require special targeted services to soften the impact once it occurs. This is especially true in prolonged drought. For example, even with the best efforts, in agriculture, land will be fallowed, crops lost or yields reduced. Herds, even if culled, may be sold for a low price. In some areas people will lose their only source of food, income and/or employment. Local areas that are “self-supplied” may run out of drinking water supply completely. This is particularly true for remote, small and poor villages.

There may also be water utility system losses. For example, if water conservation efforts are successful, the operations of water and wastewater treatment plants may suffer when conservation significantly reduces the flows for which the plants were designed. In addition, where the price of water is based on the volume used, utility revenues will decline from conservation and this may affect future financing and operations.

China is well prepared with plans to provide emergency relief. These could be improved with better risk assessment and monitoring of-related impacts.

Creating a Safety Net for Poor, Remote and Vulnerable Populations – The central, provincial and local governments should: take direct responsibility for identifying vulnerable groups and remote villages. Forecasting, risk assessment and impact monitoring should be carefully designed for their needs even if the individual population groups are small. Villages that are identified in an “at-risk” assessment area, no matter how remote, should receive early warnings, be educated on the potential risks, and receive technical assistance in the form of water savings and storage, advice on crops, planting, ground

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix G | 9 preparation or herd management. Technical and financial assistance should be provided for improving the type and design of local supplies and storage in advance.

A system should be established to monitor food and water conditions on-site in these locations during the drought —either through scheduled field visits or local reporting to a centralized location. A program should be established, incorporating solutions for local transport conditions that provide aid to these groups and to remote villages to ensure that basic food and water needs are met. In addition, affordable programs should be designed in advance that assist people to survive, recover, and reduce their future vulnerability based upon a realistic assessment of their ability to pay for items such as new seed or equipment over time. Tasks associated with this safety net include:

 Design a framework for meeting the needs of vulnerable groups

 Forecast drought for remote, mountain and hilly areas

 Design early warning system with a communications system to ensure local timely receipt and follow-up of information

 Educate local populations in the value of the early warning system

 Provide pre-drought technical assistance to vulnerable groups to better cope with drought, including assistance in agricultural planning, alternative sources of income, including women

 Improve water and food services to vulnerable groups during and after the drought with transport plan compatible with local conditions

 Assist in developing localized water sources and improving the design of local collection and storage, rainwater collection and wells

 Develop procedure to monitor impacts on people on the ground during drought

 Create dry year contingency plans for local areas

Categories for Special Attention - Some of the extreme direct and indirect impacts and losses that should be monitored for special assistance during the drought include:

 Community Drinking Water Supplies and Quality

 Public Health

 Agricultural Crop Losses (particularly for subsistence farmers)

 Livestock

 Income and Employment

 Food, Clothing, Health and Schools

 Energy

 Fire

Recovery from Drought -

The focus of recovering from drought should be on actions that assist immediate recovery. This includes actions such as post drought evaluation, replenishment of water supplies and social, economic and resources recovery. The evaluation should include an updated assessment of damages and losses, compensation and assistance.

Drought ends with the onset of a normal pattern of precipitation. However, depending on its length and severity, water supplies and other impacts will take longer to recover. Although small watersheds and

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix G | 10 water in storage in medium and small scale reservoirs are likely to recover with the advent of one wet year, recovery for large water supply systems and reservoirs takes longer. This means that water deliveries may still be curtailed to users. In addition, improvement in soil conditions will be delayed until rainfall runs off hardened surfaces, then penetrates and saturates the soil.

Next Year Drought Contingency Planning

There is no way to be certain that one year of drought will not be followed by another one. The classic error is to assume that the next period will bring adequate rainfall. This assumption results in a return to normal patterns of water delivery and consumption. If the rain fails again, people are worse off. The reservoirs and groundwater levels will be lower and the wrong crops planted. Each subsequent year that drought returns, conditions will be progressively worse.

The risk management approach to drought planning includes a dry year contingency plan in case dry conditions continue. Such lengthy dry periods exist in the historic record of all drought-prone areas, including China, at the same time that population and land uses have intensified the need for scarce water.

Climate change is expected to change water patterns, making it especially important to not base present and future large river system allocations on historical data, when this may be overestimating future availability, as has happened for the Colorado River system in the United States. In China, as in the United States, land use policies and plans have allowed large scale urban growth to occur in arid areas, leaving large populations vulnerable to declining rainfall and imported water deliveries from other basins. Moreover, overuse of groundwater and associated land subsidence can threaten the integrity of the very water facilities that transport the water from one location to another.

Drought Contingency Plans should include:

 Lessons Learned and Modifications

 Planning for the next dry year and multiple dry years

 Continued and Improved Forecasting

 Increased Conservation and Efficiency

 Diversification of Water Supplies

 Improved Flexibility of Water Supplies

 On-Going Public Education

Framework of Non-structural Measures for Drought Management in China

The following framework is intended to offer a comprehensive outline of non-structural measures that would contribute to more effective drought management in China. Some of these already are being implemented in isolated locations or conditions, but not as part of a concerted risk management approach. Of course, not all of the measures are appropriate for all areas (e.g. urban or agriculture.) Also, the best way to adapt measures for successful implementation depends on the physical, social, cultural and economic characteristics of aspecific place.

Policies, Regulations, Legal Requirements

 Drought Preparedness Planning

 Water Conservation Requirements/Water Waste Restrictions

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix G | 11  Water Rights Allocation Laws and Permits

 Plumbing/Building Regulations for Water Savings

 Water Metering Requirements

 Water Conservation Pricing

 Land Use Development and Water Supply Requirements

 Authority for Regulatory Enforcement

 Process and Authority for Declaring Drought Emergency

 Emergency Assistance Program

 Inter-Provincial and Interregional Coordination Systems

 Water Rights Conflict Resolution Framework

Planning for Drought

 Water Reliability Planning (long-term supply and demand)

 Data Analysis for Dry Year Water Supply and Demand

 Urban Water Management Plans

 Agricultural and Pasture Water Management Plans

 Drought Preparedness Plans (pre-drought risk management)

6. Urban Plan

7. Agriculture Plan

8. Range and Pasture Plan

9. Defined “Trigger” Mechanisms (e.g. reservoir levels)

10. Detailed Action Program Based on Triggers

 Drought Impact Mitigation Plan (relief services)

 Water Transfer Agreements and Mechanisms

 Detailed Plans for Voluntary and Mandatory Reductions

Drought Forecasting System, Organization and Processes

 Drought Forecasting System (onset of wet season)

5. Definition and Criteria for Drought

6. Criteria and Methodology: Data Collection and Analysis

7. System of Precipitation Monitoring Stations

x Snow Pack and Water Content Measurement

x Precipitation Projections

x River Flow Projections

x Soil Moisture Measurement

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix G | 12 x Reservoir Levels

8. Incorporation of Climate Change Models

 Data Exchange System: National, Regional and Local Agencies

 Up-to-Date Coordination Mechanisms

 Establishment of Drought Task Force – Operations Center

 Water Bank for Water Transfers and Exchanges

 Early Dry Year Warning Notification System (during wet season)

1 For Water Supply Companies and Stakeholders

2 Public Workshops and Media

 Continuous Data Monitoring and Forecast Modification

 Continuous Update in Criteria, Data and Models

 Technical Assistance to Local Areas for Drought Forecasting

Nonstructural Water Saving Measures and Practices

 Water Supplier and Utility Operations

10 Water Savings Program Implementation

11 Water Conservation Coordinator

12 Water System Loss Reduction

13 On-Site Water Audits and Assistance to Customers

14 Internal Building Water Saving Measures

15 Customer Water Saver Incentive Programs

16 Enforcement of Water Waste Prohibitions

17 Review of New Building Design and Permit Approval

18 Monitoring and Reporting of Results of Measures

 Residential Water-Saving Measures

1 Ultra-low flush toilets: existing housing (E); new (N)

2 Low flow faucets and showerheads: existing (E); new (N)

3 High efficiency washing machines: existing (E), new (N)

4 Restrictions on potable water for plants, gardens, pools

5 Water Meters for each apartment and house

6 Meter Testing, Repair and Replacement Program

7 Volumetric Water Pricing

8 Water Bills paid by households (not by enterprises)

9 Public Information Campaigns

10 School Education Programs

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix G | 13 11 Customer Leak Detection and Repair

12 Water Efficient Design Requirements for New Buildings

13 Non-Potable Water for Landscaping (grey water, recycled)

14 Replacement of Water-Cooled Air Conditioning for Apartment Buildings

15 Special Assistance for Poor and Rural Communities

 Commercial, Industrial, Institutional Water-Savings Measures

1 Industrial Process Water Reduction

2 Water-Efficient Commercial Dishwashers

3 On-Site Recycling Systems

4 High Efficiency Toilets and Urinals

5 Water Efficient Commercial Clothes Washers

6 Cooling Tower Controllers

7 Spray Nozzles

8 Steamers for Medical Equipment

9 Dry Vacuum Pumps

10 High-Rise Building Treatment and Recycling Systems

11 Rooftop Stormwater Collection and Filtration

12 Water Use Off-Set Regulations for New Buildings

13 Workshops for Commercial, Industrial and Public Sectors

 Agriculture Measures

1 Delay planting of new permanent crops

2 Irrigation Management Information System

3 On-Farm Assistance to improve irrigation practices, uniform distribution, scheduling, crop selection, soil monitoring

4 Financial Assistance and Incentives

5 Crop Insurance Program

6 Land removed from production

7 Crop Shifting

8 Efficient irrigation technologies

9 Deficit Irrigation

10 Irrigation Recycling and Reuse

11 Irrigation ditch and seepage reduction improvements

12 Evaluating crop evapo-transpiration rates

13 Workshops for Farmers

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix G | 14 14 Monitoring Excess Irrigation

 Rangeland and Pasture Measures

1 Pre-Drought Management to Protect Range Condition

x Methods to Balance Livestock with Forage

x Measures to Prevent Overgrazing

2 Drought Management Plan

x Rainfall Predictions and Vegetation Condition

x Monitoring Forage Production

‚ Changes in Forage Production and Scheduling

x Plans and Timing for Relocation or Reduction of Herd

‚ Criteria for Herd Reduction

‚ Emergency Feed and Water

3 Drought Vegetation Recovery Plan of Action

4 On-site Assistance for Herders

Impact Monitoring and Mitigation Plan

 Method for monitoring and measuring drought-related impacts

 Programs for Loss Mitigation and Compensation

3 Coordinated Response Framework

4 Criteria for Technical and Financial assistance

x Crop Losses

x Emergency Drinking Water Supplies

x Livestock Needs

x Public Health

x Conservation assistance

x Income, employment and housing

x Food, clothing, health and schools

x Assistance to Poor Communities

Drought Recovery and Contingency Plan

 Post-drought evaluation

8 Updated assessment of damages and losses

 Replenishment of Water Supplies

 Compensation and assistance for social, economic and resource recovery

 Planning for another dry year

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix G | 15 9 Lessons learned

10 Continued forecasting

11 Improved methods

12 Increased conservation and efficiency

13 Diversification of water supplies

x Water reuse

x Rain/stormwater catchments

x Groundwater banking

x Desalination

x Local Ponds and Storage

14 Improved Flexibility

x Integrated Regional Management Agreements

x Increased Reservoir Operational Efficiency

x Conjunctive Use of Ground and Surface Water

The change to a risk management approach to drought management is necessary to avoid future emergency and large scale disaster scenarios. There are no easy solutions as continued economic and population growth coupled with climate change will continue to place increased pressure on water resources across China. The drought in S.W. China in 2009/10 highlighted the need to change to a proactive risk management approach and the need to invest in better water supply and services for many areas not well serviced by existing river development systems. This will also require a change in approach and thinking for engineers away from conventional reservoirs and wells into other local solutions.

China is not alone in facing water supply issues and can benefit from the experience gained in addressing drought in other countries. The measures outlined in this Handbook are a guide to approach drought differently and to learn from the experience of others to help reduce the vulnerability of much of China to drought and related water scarcity.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix G | 16 Appendix H

Southwest Drought Addendum

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix H | 17 1. Drought in SW China - Lessons and Wider Implications 1.1 Introduction

The drought in South West China covered areas in Yunnan, Guizhou and Guanxi Provinces and spread into Sichuan Province and Chongqing Municipality. The drought resulted from low precipitation in the wet season from March to September in 2009 and was alleviated into April/May 2010 with lingering effects across the provinces. As of Mid March 2010, approximately 60 million people are affected by drought, about 18 to 20 million people suffered from shortage of drinking water, and 90 million mu of cultivated land (6.5 million hectares) was affected by drought. The impacts resulted in direct loss economic losses estimated to be 23 billion RMB Yuan (approximately 3.4 Billion USD).

Agricultural production and farmers incomes were severely affected with significant flow on effects into tree crop, flower and vegetable production from the areas. Grain production was affected although this is not considered a major grain area. Hydropower production declined during the summer until several plants were forced to stop electricity generation due to lack of water in reservoirs. The drought was classified as ‘severe’ in the epicentre.

This part of China is generally not considered to be particularly drought prone. However, precipitation was up to 90% lower than normal in places and temperatures were 1.5 degrees higher than average for the summer growing season, increasing stress and severity. The impact was most severe on communities and people in the mountainous areas where water supplies are localised such as small wells and caverns that rely on regular replenishment. These people and communities have few alternatives for water, income or ready access to support due to location and infrastructure constraints. These areas have few larger reservoirs for local use with larger facilities for cities and hydropower used elsewhere.

The five province affected cover an area similar to Western Europe with a population of about 240 million people, hence the scale is important. The emergency response was a huge undertaking, much larger than many international humanitarian operations by comparison. The SFCDRH mobilised other agencies including the army to bring fresh drinking water to communities and provide support services. The Chinese public donated funds and other support for those affected. The different levels of government mobilised resources to provide finance for mitigation and emergency efforts.

The drought emergency highlighted many issues that the ADB TA 7261 Drought Management Strategy has raised in investigations within the PRC on the current approaches to drought management as well as wider water management issues. These are reported in the Final Report. There are major changes in approach needed to address drought and water scarcity into the future. These include a change to a risk management approach that incorporated early warning, risk assessment and scenario analysis, investment in local and small scale water security, support for research and development to better understand impacts and mitigation, support for vulnerable groups such as small farmers through insurance and income support, analysis and improvements in emergency and mitigation mechanisms and, improvements in cooperation, coordination and understanding of wider water resource management issues across departments, river basin commissions and planning.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix H | 18 GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix H | 19 1.2 Lessons from the drought

There are lessons to be learned from the drought that are reflect the issues raised in the Report of TA 7261 in Chapter 5 Outcomes of the Pilots Studies. This is not a criticism of the actions taken as these were taken in accordance to the plans and mechanisms in place at the time and carried out in a professional manner.

The emergency responses to the drought started when the situation for many people and communities was already severe because of the way the emergency response operates at present. An emergency has to be declared to mobilise funds and actions. Although it was known that rainfall was limited in the affected areas during the usual wet season, the response came at the end of the wet season. An early warning mechanism with risk assessment and scenario analysis would have provided the information to start actions much earlier.

The response is directed at emergency measures such as drinking water and well drilling that lacks a longer term improvement focus hence the situation would have continued to worsen if precipitation had not returned in 2010; similarly, if a drought occurs again in coming years, the emergency will be repeated unless there is a change in the emphasis and approach to drought management and a different approach to investment in structural and non structural water resource management.

The ability of the SFCDRH to address the situation was constrained by the lack of an early warning system supported by risk assessment at an early stage to take action earlier that will reduce impacts and conserve water resources before the extreme situation develops. Drought mitigation at present lacks a thorough scientific basis for decision support, future planning and investment to improve longer term outcomes. Early warning, coupled with risk assessment and vulnerability analysis would support better decision making and provide the basis for longer term investment in those areas for better outcomes in the future.

The focus of investments in water resources is on larger scale engineering that cannot easily cater for the more remote areas where more innovative solutions for local circumstances are required. A different means of funding small scale and local measures to improve water security is needed. How this is achievable needs further investigation and research. A revolving fund approach may be useful because of the small scale.

The impact on farmers and production was extreme with complete crop failure for annual crops in many cases and reduced production for perennial crops that will carry over into the next season. Farmer’s incomes and livelihoods disappeared with severe financial hardship and the flow on effects to communities were also serious. Although some loans are available, support services to this most vulnerable group is limited resulting in years of hardship from a single drought event. Measures such as crop insurance and income support are needed to reduce the severity of impact and aid in recovery from drought.

The implications of climate change impacts on water supply and agricultural productivity were not factored into the planning or general water resource management process. China is facing increased likelihood of droughts and a declining rainfall pattern in some areas that needs to be factored into growth and development strategies as part of risk assessment and scenario analysis. Large scale mapping and vulnerability assessment is needed to support investment in water resources and conservation efforts across the provinces and wider region.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix H | 20 The available information about the S W drought presents a historical picture with facts about the impacts in terms of numbers of people, crops and livestock affected and does not support a scientific analysis that will support improvements in case of a future drought. This highlights the need to change to a risk management strategy that incorporates early warning, risk assessment and scenario analysis for better mitigation actions and longer term investment.

Considerable change in attitude is needed toward information gathering and sharing as well as a concerted effort in research, modelling and analysis to make information readily available and useful. A present, China does not complete the learning cycle for drought management because it lacks the early warning and risk assessment steps in the cyclic process that reinforces emergency measures rather than resilience for a future drought. This needs to change into a proactive system that completes the cycle for better outcomes. 1.3 Wider implications for the region

The Mekong River (and smaller rivers) flows from SW China and Quighai into neighbouring countries such as Vietnam and Thailand hence a shortfall in precipitation up stream has an impact downstream. Rice production in particular from these countries is very important regionally and internationally hence limitations on water availability have serious impacts on food security elsewhere.

Investments in Water Resources, both structural and non structural across the region are needed to support food security and stability in the longer term. This needs to be supported by better water resource management across borders and integrated management at the river basin level.

Improvements in efficiency of irrigation and water use are needed across the region to support ongoing food security and population growth.

Climate change and resulting reduced reliability of rainfall or more extreme weather events needs to be incorporated into planning and investment into the future. Food security and general well being is at

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix H | 21 risk if this is undertaken on a regional basis.

2. The Economic Basis for Drought Risk Management

(THE CASE OF GUIYANG MUNICIPALITY) 2.1 Background

The drought that occurred in Guiyang in 2009-2010 was part of a more widespread drought that took place across the broader region of China’s Southwest provinces. In places, reservoirs were reduced to dry cracked earth with intakes abandoned; rural isolated villages suffered from a lack of basic drinking water as streams, springs and wells went dry. Crops were lost, crop yields and industrial production fell, livestock suffered, fisheries and forests were badly affected. Control and prevention of infectious diseases became a concern.

Actions Taken: A drought of this nature has been uncommon for this region. After the impacts of the disaster became apparent, those responsible for drought disaster relief, from the Central Committee and the State Council, to officials and volunteers at all levels, organized to minimize the losses, provide relief to those affected, and encourage recovery in Guiyang and the province. Drought relief actions taken during and after the disaster included efforts to improve local information, deliver local drinking water, develop wells or transfer water supplies, provide financial assistance, bring demonstrations of new drought-hardened seed and techniques to farmers and villages in hope of improving results for the next spring planting. In the aftermath of the drought, recovery actions were taken to replant drought affected forestland and repair problems prior to flood season that had been exposed by low water levels in reservoirs.

The drought response was also evaluated by the government for shortcomings to be improved: These included a) assistance to areas still affected by drought; b) speeding up infrastructure construction to solve the ongoing water shortage “at its root”; c) enhancing the capacity for more forward-looking meteorological disaster forecasting; d) improve aspects such as environmental protection, and water conservation and improve disaster contingency planning.

The approach taken in China for this and other droughts has relied more on drought relief than proactive risk avoidance and management. There is prior organization and planning in how to alleviate the impacts of drought but this prior planning and organization is concentrated on what to do after a drought emergency is on-going. In the interim, however, before the impacts become dramatic, there will have been great losses, some of which could be prevented had an early forecast and warning been issued and adaptation measures taken. Actions planned after the drought, in the form of the construction of new facilities, are intended as preventive actions for a subsequent drought. This water, certain to be reduced by less precipitation during a drought, is often fully utilized for a wholly new population occupying new urban development, leaving even a larger population vulnerable for their water needs when the next drought occurs.

Some changes in the approach to drought management are taking place within China. As with other countries and areas subject to drought, the first response is to react to crisis, then to improve upon that response, and then to plan ahead to prevent or minimize the impacts in advance. A comprehensive survey of provincial officials for the Headquarters Office of State Flood Control and Drought Relief was carried out in 2009 to ascertain the extent to which provinces carry out drought risk management measures. The survey focused primarily on non-structural measures such as forecasting and early warning systems, policies, regulations and contingency plans, efficiency and conservation

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix H | 22 measures. They also included non-traditional structural measures that would diversify the sources of water available, beyond traditional dams, in case of a drought. In each province it was found that a number of measures were used sometimes. What was less apparent was a systematic approach demonstrating an understanding of the interconnection and value of these different measures and how to assess their relative value. 2.2 Losses and Costs of the Drought

1 Losses : In the aftermath of the drought, the direct economic losses attributed to it in Guiyang Municipality were RMB 1,352,348,000 yuan (US$ 197.4 million.) with industrial losses the highest (CNY 732 million), followed by agriculture (CNY 540.3 million).

Costs: All of the actions mentioned above that were taken for drought relief came with a cost. The costs of these relief efforts are less well known than the direct economic losses. They include hardship allowances (CNY 20.8 million), relief money donated by Chinese citizens (CNY 21.5 million), and costs to stabilize food production and prices (CNY 3.1 million). However, the full cost of government disaster relief efforts include the costs of new water source development or transfer for drinking water for about 135,000 people and for livestock, government-purchased equipment, reduced hydropower production, revenue losses to utilities and government, not to mention the tens of thousands of person-days committed, the loss of habitat and increased flooding, indirect downstream costs and the longer term effects on families. Therefore, for purposes of this discussion, the true costs of the drought are not fully known. 2.3 The Costs and Benefits of Drought Risk Management

There is no way to prevent a drought. There are ways to mitigate its impacts and losses on those who are affected. A drought plan is a comprehensive risk assessment of all water uses. This discussion will focus on water conservation (also called demand management or water savings) to demonstrate some costs and benefits of risk management in Guiyang.

Definition of Risk Management Costs: The costs of a risk management strategy are the costs of measures taken to reduce drought impacts and losses. For example, the cost of better models to forecast drought and inform stakeholders in advance would be a cost of risk management. Farmers may invest in drought-resistant seeds, which, if more expensive than normal seeds, will be a risk management cost. The cost of water conservation measures to save water for use before and during a drought may involve the cost of new fixtures, appliances, technologies and public awareness campaigns for domestic, public, commercial, industrial and agricultural users. Reduction in water company physical losses to save water will require new equipment for the detection and location of leaks.

Definition of Risk Management Benefits: The benefits of risk management are defined as the avoided losses or costs that would have occurred in the absence of risk management measures. For example, if early warning of drought causes a farmer to switch to drought resistant seeds, the income he does not lose is a benefit of risk management. If actions are taken before a drought that reduces subsequent costs of relief and recovery, the savings in public funds is counted as a benefit. All of the reductions in damages or costs that would have occurred without risk management are counted as benefits of this approach.

1 “The Report about the Flood Control and Drought Relief in Guiyang This Year (2010)” no author cited.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix H | 23 Conservation as a Drought Risk Management Strategy: A critical aspect of preparing for water shortages or drought is to introduce flexibility into the sources of supply. A common response, after a drought, is to seek out more infrastructure solutions for the capture, storage, treatment and delivery of water. These solutions are expensive and carry even higher costs associated with the expansion and operation of wastewater treatment facilities. They also may not be completed before the next drought 2 occurs. However, from the perspective of water planners, they carry an element of certainty. A structure has been built that will store a certain amount of water to be delivered. Non-structural solutions are considered as second-best options. Conservation--a water savings society, demand management--is presented as an additional way that the population can “help”, but conservation is not perceived as a real supply option with real water quantities that can be reliably evaluated and compared for cost.

Conservation is an important drought risk management option for the following reasons:

 It can be implemented more quickly than new infrastructure

 Before a drought it increases water levels in existing reservoirs, carrying over more water into successive dry years than otherwise would have been available

 It is cost-effective compared to new supplies

 It provides solutions to generalized water shortage

 It does not require new treatment or discharge facilities

 It can be implemented in phases and in response to conditions

 It reduces energy use when hydropower production declines during a drought

 It leaves more water for wetlands and habitats, preventing damage

 It requires less displacement of people

Avoided Costs as Benefits of Conservation: By providing more water in time of drought, conservation reduces the damages from it. In addition to these avoided losses, water conservation can provide water at a lower cost than traditional sources. This cost savings is also counted as a benefit. Conservation extends the existing community water supply. It is real water. No longer needed by one segment of the community, it makes that water available for someone else to use. In effect it is no different than the next increment of a new water supply. The difference between conserved water and “new” water development is that developing new water involves the cost of land, construction, materials and equipment, treatment and the cost of safe wastewater disposal. There may be costs of resettlement and environmental mitigation. On the other hand, these facilities have already been constructed and are operating to take care of a conserved water supply. All of these costs are “avoided costs” (benefits) of conservation. 2.4 Application of Conservation Risk Management Benefits and Costs to Guiyang Municipality

The following discussion is not intended as a complete analysis of the situation in Guiyang or as a comprehensive economic analysis of drought risk management. Rather, it is intended to provide the

2 In many cases a drought ends before projects can be completed. An emergency pipeline was placed on a bridge in San Francisco Bay to assist communities on the other side. Just as it was completed the drought ended and the pipeline was removed. A mobile desalination plant was constructed in Southern California only to have the same result.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix H | 24 economic rationale for risk management by demonstrating that prevention of a disaster is less expensive than disaster response. 2.4.1 Guiyang Domestic Water Use Savings

The first benefit of conservation is measured as the avoided cost of the next alternative water supply. First the potential savings must be calculated.

Existing Domestic Water Use: The calculation of water conservation savings is based on the specific measures that would be put in place, and the amount of water that would be saved for each measure. Savings are based on the difference in water flow rate for each fixture multiplied by the number of times each fixture is used per person per day. In the case of Guiyang, current per capita use is 170 lcd, 3 or 62 m3 per year, for an urban population of 2,350,000 .

Non-Drought and Drought Savings: If water savings fixtures (toilets, faucets, showers, and washing machines) are installed in all apartments, the amount of water that would be used per person per day for toilet, drinking, washing, cooking and bathing could be reduced to 101 lcd. However, it is important to not encourage maximum savings until a drought is predicted. Otherwise people will already have reduced their use to a safe minimum and they will have difficulty conserving more, without hardship, when drought conditions prevail. Moreover, there is a likelihood that the saved water will be reallocated to new residents to substitute for the construction of new facilities to serve them. Thus, conservation programs should leave room for additional savings under conditions of drought. For this reason, it is calculated that during non-drought conditions the average use of an urban resident would be 130 lcd or 47.5 m3 per year.

Potential Existing Urban Domestic Savings: The projected savings for the year 2011 for urban domestic use would be 34.3 million m3 per year. This exceeds the volume of water that will be made available by a medium-sized reservoir such as Yudongxia dam and reservoir (32.9 million m3 per year.) The savings of 40 lcd—from 170 to 130-- by the present population of 2.35 million people, would provide enough water for an additional 720,000 people at 130 lcd. This is significant and would defer the need for another reservoir by about eight years at projected rates of population growth.

Reliability of Domestic Water Savings: Because the water savings noted above are based entirely on changes built into a household’s “hardware” and not on changing people’s habits, this level of conservation has a high degree of reliability. Achieving greater reductions would require continuous education and is more dependent on changing personal habits. This would occur during a drought to bring water use down an additional 25% or more if needed.

The Value of Domestic Water Conservation Savings: As noted above, the value of a water conservation measure is the avoided cost of the next m3 of alternative source of supply. This includes new water source design and development, land acquisition, construction, transmission, pumping, and water treatment, and environmental mitigation costs such as in-stream flow reduction and social resettlement costs. Although excluded from the analysis here, it should also include the avoided cost to safely dispose of the additional wastewater-- such as the costs of expanded wastewater plant

3 “Strengthening of Water Resources Management in Guiyang. Final Report, Part I” ADB TA 4912 PRC July 2010. Source of population and per capita consumption projections. In reality the projections for 2020 and 2030 are too high as, contrary to conclusions in the report, domestic water demand does not continue to increase with income when almost all of the use occurs indoors. This occurs only where there are low density single-family homes with room for landscaping around each one.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix H | 25 4 capacity, treatment, energy and chemicals . Table 1 estimates the capital, operation and maintenance and average incremental economic cost (AIC) of the current three alternative sources of urban water supply presently being constructed for Guiyang Municipality as 5 yuan/m3. Since these projects are already under construction, value of conserved water should be compared to the next water supply project, that typically would be more expensive. No actual alternative dam sites (only variants of the same sites) were considered for the current projects, so it was not possible to estimate the cost of the next project. However variants considered were about 1 yuan per m3 more. Therefore it is conservative to use at least 6 yuan per m3 as the avoided cost of saved water.

The Net Benefit of Conservation Measures Compared to Alternative Sources: The costs of conservation consist of the cost of any hardware, appliances and labor, and educational materials needed to achieve the water savings. Based upon preliminary analysis of the prices of Chinese manufacturers, these costs could be as high as 4.16 yuan per m3 of the water saved, so that the net benefits (avoided costs) of water savings would be about 1.84 yuan per m3 or a total of CNY 62.7 million each year if only the existing population is served. (These costs could drop if more reliance was placed on a public awareness campaign to achieve savings but these savings may not be as predictable from year to year.) The cost of conservation will drop as the population increases if new apartments are built with plumbing codes requiring water-saving fixtures in place, as retrofitting old buildings or equipment with new equipment is always more expensive than installing the equipment at the time of construction. If only the existing apartments were retrofitted for conservation, after 30 years, the cumulative amount of water that would have been conserved for other uses (1.12 billion m3) would be the same as that delivered by the three new reservoirs for the Guiyang urban population (1.02 billion m3) over the same period of time.

Future Domestic Savings: The example above applied only to the existing urban population. Table 3 shows that a similar household conservation program extended to new residents will bring substantial savings. Unlike large structures built with excess capacity, water conservation measures are added as they are needed and benefits are returned in the same year as the expenditure. At present, per capita consumption is projected to increase from 170 lcd to 200 lcd and 240 lcd as population grows to 3.18 5 million in 2020 and 3.85 in 2030. This would have the impact of increasing total domestic water use from 145.8 million to 337.1 million m3 per year. However, with the conservation measures described in place, as new development occurs, water use will only increase to 182.6 million m3 per year in 2030. 3 This ultimately will produce a savings of 154.5 million m per year. The average incremental economic cost of saved water per m3 will be 2.61 yuan in (constant currency) compared to 6 yuan. The total cumulative water savings from domestic use over the 30 year period will be 2.99 billion m3, approximately 1.96 billion of which would otherwise have to be produced from newly developed water sources. The net avoided cost (benefit) of not having to develop these supplies would be about 6.6 billion yuan.

2.4.2 Savings from Physical Water Losses

Potential Reduction: The reduction in physical losses is an important way for a water utility to preserve more water in the event of a drought. It is estimated that Guiyang Municipality water losses

4 The cost of domestic waste treatment (excluding capital costs of plant construction) is estimated in China (see Appendix 4) to be 0.8 to 0.9 yuan/m.3 5 Strengthening of Water Resources Management in Guiyang. Final Report, Part I” ADB TA 4912 PRC July 2010. In reality the projections for 2020 and 2030 are too high as, contrary to conclusions in the report, domestic water demand does not continue to increase with income when almost all of the use occurs indoors. This occurs only where there are low density single-family homes with room for landscaping around each one.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix H | 26 6 are 39 million m3 per year or 36% of production . If physical leakage from the system accounts for one-half of the unaccounted for water, cutting these physical losses by 50% will result in a savings of 10 million m3 per year. (Losses that represent revenue losses only would not provide savings for a drought because the water is still being used by someone. As water, it is not really lost.) This could be provided for other needs or held in reserve for dry periods. As with residential savings noted above, it is water whose development and treatment has already been paid for.

Estimated Cost: Equipment would be needed for detection and repair. The California State Department of Water Resources has estimated the cost for its own system would be less than US$100/1223m3 saved. One half of this is the cost of labor in California. Therefore it may be estimated that the cost should be no more than CNY 0.2/m3 or much less than the cost of developing new water or about CNY 2 million to cut losses by 10million m3. Compared to this the avoided cost (benefit) would be CNY 5.8 million.

6 ibid

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix H | 27 GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix H | 28 GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix H | 29 2.4.3 Savings from Industrial Water Use

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix H | 30 Industrial water use makes up about 53% of present urban use in Guiyang, or 602.4 million m3 per year in Guiyang. Guiyang has major water-using industries including steel, chemicals, non-ferrous metals, electronics and machinery, building materials, national defense and food processing. Advertisements for companies producing chemicals and aluminum boast of Guiyang’s richness in water resources as an advantage for these industries.

Given that the highest economic losses during the drought came from industry, finding ways to become more efficient in water use is critical. If lack of water during the drought accounted for the direct economic losses, then making more water available, through conservation and recycling, during drought will avoid some or all of the losses. Not enough is known about the specific industrial plants and their practices or the cost of applying water-saving and recycling technologies in China. Each case should be analyzed for the specific monetary costs and benefits.

In fact, water use in industrial production everywhere differs significantly even within the same industry depending on level and type of production and numbers of employees. For this reason examples will be provided below within similar industries that exist in Guiyang. In all cases for these industries, in addition to the benefit to overall water resource conditions, the cost of reducing water use has been exceeded by the financial savings to the company. Many industries, including steel mills, have found it possible to reach zero discharge by creative methods of conservation and recycling. It is likely that the scale of industries in Guiyang may exceed the examples below, thus lowering the investment cost per m3 saved.

The major uses of water in industry are cooling, processing, boiler feed and sanitation. On-site costs associated with water use include the raw cost of water, chemical treatment, pumping, heating or 7 cooling towers and wastewater discharge . In fact there can be significant avoided costs of energy use since about 15% of the energy use of a plant is due to water use. In a drought, when hydropower production will be decreased, the lower water and energy needs have a double benefit both to the watershed and to the cost structure of the company. The primary methods used to reduce water use include adjusting the flow rate, modifying or replacing equipment, supplying new water and sanitation fixtures, water recycling and reuse and changing to a waterless process.

In a survey of industrial plants, and commercial and institutional sectors in California’s Silicon Valley, 8 the Santa Clara Valley Water District1 found that industrial plants, including electronics, food processing, packaging and metal and building materials showed an average water use reduction of 41.1% and that the annual cost savings exceeded the total project cost. The payback on investment was less than one year. The source of greatest savings came from industry resulting from process modifications and wastewater recycling. The average overall industrial savings was 35%.

Other studies have shown similar results

Type of Plant Reduction

Potash – fertilizer 52%

Intel – Computer Chips 61.4%

Sandia National Labs: Defense 30%

7 The average cost of wastewater treatment in China for the industries found in Guiyang is 2.7 to 3.7 yuan/m3. See Appendix 4 8 “Commercial, Industrial and Institutional Water Use Survey Program: Final Report (Santa Clara Valley Water District, San Jose, CA: 2004)

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix H | 31 Building Control Products 82%

Los Alamos National Lab: Defense ` 44%

Food Processing 27%

Building Materials 57%

Shijiazhuang Iron & Steel zero discharge

9 Delta Airlines >60%

Office Buildings and Apartments 50%

All of these industries can expect to improve on current progress as technologies and ideas improve. New skyscrapers are being constructed that will reduce water use in half, along with harvesting 10 stormwater, each saving 1 million m3 a year. The types of solutions and level of savings vary greatly. Drought, or other severe water cutbacks, has typically been the incentive to seek these changes. Clearly, although an individual company may make its own decision based on company costs and revenues, the avoided cost to society far exceeds the savings calculated by an individual company. Fewer water supply projects need to be developed. On-site reuse of recycled wastewater cuts the capacity and treatment costs of wastewater treatment plants. There are significant benefits for in- stream flows and water quality, requiring fewer government expenditures to habitat recovery.

Conservation Benefits: If industry in Guiyang could cut its current total water use of 602 million m3 per year by 35%, this would be an annual savings of 211 million m3. The techniques applied would require changing existing equipment and practices. New industries in the future could benefit from a cost perspective by incorporating water efficient practices rather than modifying existing ones. Achieving this result for the whole sector would require a significant investment. In the Santa Clara Valley Water District Study the average water savings per dollar (CNY 6.85) invested was 0.5 m3 and all projects were cost-effective. An analysis would be needed to determine the costs and size of the program. If, in the worst case, the cost were as high as in the United States, the program to reduce industrial use by 35% would be CNY 137,000,000. Although high, this compares favorably with the losses suffered by Guiyang Municipality industry of CNY 731,980,000 in the drought. More important, these changes would remain in place for future water shortages and drought at no additional investment. If another drought occurs and no action has been taken, the losses suffered before will continue to occur.

9 “Drought and Demand-Side Water Conservation,” Water Efficiency: May-June 2008 10 “Urban High-Rise Design Meets Water Conservation Goals,” Urban Water Management: Fall: 2009

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix H | 32 2.4.4 Implications for Benefits of Drought Risk Management

The analysis above shows that, with conservation measures noted above, urban Guiyang Municipality could have had about 20% more water for use during the drought if risk management conservation measures had been in place: Savings consist of domestic (34million m3), utility loss reduction (10 million m3) and industrial (210 million m3.). This type of savings in advance of a potential drought, means that more water is in storage when a drought begins (assuming enough off-stream storage exists). Lower levels of use will mean that even if the next year is dry, more water will remain in the reservoirs to be carried over for use from the previous year. All of this water would have been available at a lower cost than that of traditional structural alternatives.

Without knowing how conserved water would have been allocated among users, it is not possible to determine the magnitude of the avoided economic losses (benefits) as a result of having more water. Clearly those sectors most damaged were industry and agriculture. There may have been no way to transfer water to agriculture. Certainly industrial losses would have been much lower and in-stream flows would have been higher, reducing the cost of habitat and wetlands recovery.

Related Issues: For a number of reasons, in terms of risk management, efficient water use and conservation, it always is more cost-effective to “do things right” in the beginning than wait until a crisis arises. Lessons that have been learned elsewhere include that it is important to factor the impacts of reduced consumption levels into the sizing and design of of facilities and into financial plans. If water supplies, water treatment and wastewater treatment plants are designed without consideration of conservation or drought-reduced flows, there are financial impacts on the utility. Customers will be paying tariffs to cover the fixed cost of unused capacity. If rates are volumetric and people reduce their use in response to the need to conserve water, revenues will decline and put a financial burden on the water company. If the company raises water tariffs during a drought to compensate for lost income, this will appear punitive to customers who are trying to save water and may lead them to reduce their use further.

In terms of wastewater treatment plants, systems that have been designed for higher per capita use will be adversely affected as reduced hydraulic loadings and attendant increases in concentration impact the operations of all units of the plants.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix H | 33 3. A Trans-Boundary Approach to Assistance for the South West Drought and the Mekong River Basin 3.1 Background

The source of the Mekong River is in the glaciers and snowmelt of the Himalaya in China. While downstream the Mekong is dependent on rainfall within the watershed, the precipitation at the source is held in glaciers and in snow. This method of storage has the effect of regulating the release of precipitation as temperatures and seasons change.

The Mekong flows through multiple countries before reaching the Mekong Delta outside of China’s borders. This trans-boundary aspect to the river means that the impacts of drought in the upper basin have regional consequences, diminishing flows downstream to other countries. Drought is also likely to increase demand in the upper basin, lessening the flows as well. The reduction in flows, whatever the cause, may be seen in the current impacts not only in South West China, but in the lower Mekong, on economic growth, agriculture, fisheries, vulnerable populations and ecology of the delta.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix H | 34 Adding to this trans-boundary issue are the impacts expected from climate change including the increased threat of drought and flood as glaciers melt, affecting river flows. Within the context of the historic impacts of the South West Drought, it is critical to consider a regional drought risk management strategy in which China and the Mekong countries cooperate across international boundaries to solve shared and changing water issues. 3.2 Fundamental Issue

The fundamental constraint to introducing at least some aspects of integrated river management by China and the Mekong countries, is that there must be perceived benefits for all countries. It is clear, for example, that scientific medium term forecasting, drought monitoring and a warning system for conditions on the upper Mekong would greatly assist other countries in preparing for reduced flows and sector water allocations before conditions worsen. What incentive, however, would encourage China’s involvement, given its own upstream needs? What would be win-win situations? Could a neutral party, such as ADB, play a role in encouraging international cooperation to resolve Mekong water issues? 3.3 Potential Actions

Below are some possible approaches to encourage some international river basin cooperation. These are built upon 1) recommendations for China’s Drought Risk Management Approach; 2) are forward- looking to new climate change scenarios and problems; 3) are compatible with other program objectives and lending programs within ADB; 4) emphasize investments that builds cooperation across international lines while helping individual countries through their participation.

 Mekong Region Drought Forecasting, Climate Change Simulation, Monitoring and Warning System

 Cooperation on Regional Climate-Risk Assessment and Management

 A Great Mekong Water Compact Agreement to Establish Water Allocations to Meet Needs Under Normal and Severe Conditions

 A Greater Mekong Program of Integrated Water and Climate Adaptation Investments

 A Trans-Boundary Program of Poverty Reduction to Reduce Impacts of Drought and Climate Change. 3.3.1 Drought Forecasting, Climate Change Simulation, Monitoring and Warning System

The South West drought demonstrated a complete failure in forecasting and warning placing people at risk in both China and the Mekong. This resulted in great social and economic losses. Effective forecasting would reduce impacts and produce large net benefits in the form of avoided costs.

This project would introduce science and climate change simulation into a model for drought forecasting and monitoring to greatly improve the reliability of a warning system for the Greater Mekong. Climate change will increase severity and uncertainty of hydrologic variability. Melting glaciers will reduce water regulation, increase risk of flood and drought, decrease reliability of hydropower. Forecasting is first step in anticipating conditions and impacts.

The role of ADB would be to provide assistance in research, climate simulation and modeling, forecasting and warning program for China and Greater Mekong Sub region. This will promote an important role for future investment. The project will help China by providing state-of-the-art modeling and simulation, increased reliability of forecasts and a warning system for provincial and local levels,

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix H | 35 climate adaptation strategies. For Greater Mekong, data sharing, integrated forecasting and a warning system will help risk management, and climate adaptation strategies and reduce losses.

3.3.2 A Regional Climate-Risk Assessment and Management Project

This approach would build on USGS DRAGON Lower Mekong Delta project’s international and regional relationships, science and data collection activities. ADB, through its GMS environment program or the Mekong River Commission, can gain from results and support tasks that provide cross- boundary technical expertise to facilitate data analysis and integration and conduct environmental monitoring on the impacts of climate change and human activity on ecology,. water quality and sedimentation, impacts of hydropower development on biodiversity and food security, climate change adaptation, changes and timing and severity of seasonal drought.

The inclusion of China will strengthen relationships with Mekong Region scientists and organizations, promote data sharing and joint research that might add to understanding impacts on the Delta, leading to potential mitigation programs. In addition, China would benefit from similar cooperation with the USGS DRAGON program on its own deltas.

The USGS DRAGON program is financed by USAID and is a recent example of donor-assisted international cooperation between delta regions. ADB could initiate comparative pilot projects and studies to understand and predict the effects of climate change, engineering projects, land use and hydrologic change on sensitive ecosystems. It could promote projects that are adaptive to new environments. 3.3.3 Multi-Nation Mekong Compact or Agreement to Establish Water Allocations

The programs above would collect and model data to indicate the needs of each Mekong River country from river flows. They should also provide data on normal, reduced, critical drought and climate-reduced flows, as well as above normal flows per country.

These data and water needs per country should provide the basis for a shared agreement (an international water compact) for water allocations under different flow regimes. The science and such agreements are extremely difficult. As part of the process, however, some issues can be resolved and new cooperative projects financed to improve system-wide performance and reliability. (see # 4) below). This type of negotiation is important in developing a framework for resolving integrated water basin management issues.

This project could be a follow-up project to ADB’s current Water Allocation Project for China. The incentive for countries to participate, especially China, would be new technologies for water storage, water pollution control and other projects that increase storage, water exchanges, and water supply flexibility to adapt to changing climate conditions. 3.3.4 A Program of Water and Climate Adaptation Investments

Water investments will be needed to assist in the resolution of water issues for the Mekong River and attract cooperative responses. An adaptation investment strategy will be needed to improve existing management of water resources, including adaptation to the impacts of climate change.

These investments will help to smooth areas of conflict between countries by adding storage, and increasing the diversification and flexibility of supplies to provide water in dry years. They will also encourage participation by countries. The result will be to reduce the damage from climate change and drought years and provide net benefits.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix H | 36 A drought or climate-adaptation management approach identifies appropriate and feasible options for changing conditions. Some of the options that can allow water to be effectively managed on a regional basis include coordinated reservoir regulation and integration, increased local off-stream storage, groundwater banking and exchanges, rainwater harvesting, water pollution control and wastewater reuse, conjunctive ground and surface water use, and demand management and water use efficiency by all sectors. All of these diverse options, together, add to the quantity, flexibility and reliability of the water supply portfolio in dry years.

By instituting a water adaptation investment approach for the Mekong countries, ADB will be able to demonstrate a win-win strategy that will facilitate cooperation and coordinated operations between countries in the basin. 3.3.5 A Trans-Boundary Program of Poverty Reduction to Reduce Impacts of Drought and Climate Change

The South West drought has shown how poor populations are particularly vulnerable to drought and climate change, losing not only crops but basic water sources. Losses have been particularly high.

The idea of adaptation investments also applies to investments that will increase the adaptive capacity to protect poor vulnerable populations and ecosystems. A targeted program by ADB--to provide warnings and monitor conditions in remote areas in advance, to assist to construct or improve local water storage and wells, protect sanitation facilities or provide farm and land preparation advice, and emergency water and food supplies—will be valuable to minimize impacts through the Mekong Basin.

A model for inter-country planning for the Mekong exists in the World Bank’s SAWAP. In the SAWAP case there is a water and sanitation planning partnership between Mekong countries and the south west provinces of Yunnan and Guangxi. WB is currently starting a Climate Change Adaptation Project for 2 pilot projects in Viet Nam and Yunnan Province, crossing national borders. The purpose is to investigate the potential impacts of climate change on water and sanitation systems of the poor and propose options that are compatible with climate change impacts and the local population.

ADB could support projects like these under the objective of poverty reduction. The application of pilots to several countries on the Mekong will allow basic issues, types of options and local response to be compared.

4. Conclusions and Recommendations

The analysis of the drought in South West of China supports the need for further investigation into the water systems of the region that includes drought impacts and potential investments to make drought and climate change mitigation efforts feasible and effective. The wider Mekong River Basin is extremely important for food security in Asia and there are many very vulnerable groups within the catchment. A drought upstream will have impacts downstream and these need to be quantified in advance for effective mitigation.

Climate change is having an impact across China and the region and this will impact downstream in the Mekong because of the impacts on precipitation hence early warning and risk assessment is needed supported by investments in infrastructure and significant non structural investment in water use efficiency and saving in agriculture, domestic and commercial use.

The Mekong River Commission has a significant role to play in supporting this approach as do the member countries including China. Projects that can address the different aspects of the work will vary

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix H | 37 but should be designed to fit an overall goal of improving water use efficiency and water security for the region as well having an environmentally positive outcome. Several major donors are currently active including the WB and multilateral contributing partners into the Mekong River Commission.

ADB has a role to play in this as do other potential donors and a plan is needed for the region even if this will be implemented by specific countries and specific donors. Multilateral programs that address the scientific and intellectual aspects can be used in conjunction with physical investments in infrastructure, irrigation technology and water saving approaches. Non structural measure that combine investment in water saving for domestic and industry uses need to be supported by innovative investment approaches for many small scale inputs across a wide user base.

As there are many initiatives currently underway, a donor meeting in conjunction with countries in the catchment should take place to devise a plan for actions and responsibilities for best use of resources. The Mekong River Commission could be the forum for this meeting that should be arranges as soon as possible. ADB could also initiate actions on its own behalf.

GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | Appendix H | 38