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TACR: People's Republic of China: Strategy for Drought Management

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TACR: People's Republic of China: Strategy for Drought Management Technical Assistance Consultant’s Report Project Number: 42025 March 2011 People's Republic of China: Strategy for Drought Management (Cofinanced by the Multi-Donor Trust Fund under the Water Financing Partnership Facility) Prepared by: GHD Pty Limited For: Ministry of Water Resources People's Republic of China This consultant’s report does not necessarily reflect the views of ADB or the Government concerned, and ADB and the Government cannot be held liable for its contents. (For project preparatory technical assistance: All the views expressed herein may not be incorporated into the proposed project’s design. People’s Republic of China Asian Development Bank Ministry of Water Resources Strategy for Drought Management TA 7261-PRC FINAL REPORT GHD Pty Ltd March 2011 Table of Contents 1. Introduction 3 1.1 Background 3 1.2 TOR for Drought Management TA 4 1.3 Management Arrangements 5 1.4 Report Structure 5 2. Drought Definition and Management Approaches 6 2.1 Drought definitions and terminology 6 2.2 Concept of Risk Management 8 2.3 Risk Management versus Disaster Relief Management 9 3. Geography Meteorology and Hydrology of China 11 3.1 Geography 11 3.2 Meteorology 12 3.3 Hydrology 12 4. History of drought and drought impacts in China 14 4.1 Major Recorded Droughts 14 4.2 Recent Recorded Droughts 14 4.3 Impacts of Drought 17 5. Current Drought Management Strategies, Policies and Regulations in China 19 5.1 Strategies 19 5.2 Policies 20 5.3 Regulations 21 5.4 Institutions, Structure and Procedures 22 5.5 Decision Making 23 5.6 Structural Measures 24 5.7 Non Structural Measures 28 GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | i 6. International Approaches to Drought Management 33 6.1 Trend towards Risk Management 33 6.2 Risk Management and Climate Change Impacts 35 6.3 Recommendations from the International workshop 36 6.4 Conclusion and Recommendation for Improved Approach to Drought Management in China 37 6.5 General Framework for Drought Risk Management in China 37 6.6 The Case for Demand Management within a Risk Management Framework 38 6.7 Proposed Drought Risk Management Approach for China based on Chinese and International Experienc 43 7. Outcome of Pilots Studies in Designated Provinces 50 7.1 Key findings of the Pilots for Drought Risk Management Implementation 50 7.2 Serious Drought Issues in China that Risk Management can address 52 8. Strategic Framework for Drought Risk Management 55 8.1 Opportunities and Constraints for Drought Risk Management in China 55 8.2 Framework Addressing Key Issues 56 8.3 Strengths and Weaknesses of Current System 58 8.4 Comparisons with Pilot Sites 59 8.5 Developing an Appropriate Strategic Framework Incorporating Risk Management 59 8.6 Before, During and After Matrix 60 8.7 Strategic Framework and Key Points 60 8.8 Rationale for the Framework 62 8.9 Actions required lying the foundations for Framework development and implementation 64 9. Action Plan 66 9.1 Introduction 66 9.2 Action Plan Objectives 66 9.3 Principles 66 GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | ii 9.4 Key Tasks for the Action Plan 67 9.5 Main Priorities 70 10. Recommendations 72 10.1Next Steps and recommendation 72 10.2Design of Pilots 72 11. References 76 Table Index Table 1 Role and Responsibilities of the Flood Control and Drought Relief Office and the Associated Agencies 28 Table 2 Drought Risk Management Cycle 56 Table 3 Stategic Framework and Key Points 60 Table 4 Table of Actions and Priorities 70 Figure Index Figure 1 Organization Chart for TA Implementation 5 Figure 2 Comparisons of the Reactive and Proactive Approach to Drought Issues 10 Figure 3 China Flood Control and Drought Relief Organisation Chart 23 Figure 4 Annual Inflows into Melbourne’s Major Harvesting Reservoirs 40 Figure 5 Impact of Demand Management through Restrictions on Use by Compulsory Water Restrictions on Reservoir Levels 41 Figure 6 Consumption in Litres Per Day as A result of Demand Management 42 Figure 7 Melbourne Water Storage 2000 to 2010 42 Figure 8 Actual Water Use Against Targets for 2009/2010 43 GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | iii Appendices Appendix A Drought Relief Regulations Appendix B Standard of Classification for Drought Appendix C Nonstructural Measures for Drought Management in China Appendix D Drought Environment Report Appendix E Pilot Study Outcomes Appendix F Policy Brief Appendix G Handbook Appendix H Southwest Drought Addendum GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | iv Executive Summary China is facing increasing pressure on water resources from continued economic development, increasing population, urbanization and climate change impacts. Water scarcity is leading to conflict and competition between water users and relatively small changes in rainfall are having an increasing large impact on supply availability. The need to maintain food security and social stability is very important in China and increasing drought or water scarcity is an issue for both. Drought is a feature of the climate in China and severe droughts with major social impacts have occurred regularly in recorded history. These have led to significant loss of human life, loss of livestock and agricultural productivity. Despite the enormous effort put into development of water capture, storage and management in China, droughts, particularly intensity of widespread multiyear drought events. Drought is currently managed as part of an emergency and disaster relief process that has been good at coping with short term emergency needs but is less suited to coping with multiyear widespread drought. International experience suggested that China needs to change its approach to drought management from an emergency response to a risk management approach. This is move from reactive to proactive involving a more integrated system of monitoring, prediction, and modelling of hydrology/meteorology influences on water resources coupled with demand management for water conservation in many forms and community education programs to deal with increasing scarcity. There are also considerable savings to be made in existing water use patterns that need to be addressed. China has limited potential to increase supply as major rivers are already heavily exploited so managing demand is crucial to water management in general and drought in particular. Monitoring and effective management of ground water extraction is a necessary part of this mix as groundwater is currently used at unsustainable levels in parts of China. Climate change is likely to exacerbate the impact of drought as higher temperatures increase water use across agriculture and urban areas whilst reducing runoff into storage. Parts of northern China have seen a decline in rainfall and an increase in irregularity of rainfall in the last 30 years and this has increased the incidence of “drought”. The drought of 2000 to 2003 across parts of northern China indicated how vulnerable this part of China was to relatively small changes in rainfall, runoff and higher temperatures. The impact on grain production was very significant. Increased grain production in Northern China is at risk from drought. At present there is some confusion as to what constitutes a drought or drought emergency with limited standardisation across the country. However, Drought Relief Regulations at the national level have been released in 2009, supported by Drought Classification Rules in 2009. These will take some time to work through the system. China lacks an information system to undertake drought monitoring and prediction in real time and the use of integrated data sources for modelling is relative new and less developed. To enable this change to a proactive approach, a drought management strategy framework has been recommended, based around a risk assessment modelling mechanism that informs and supports further actions. The strategy is supported by an action plan for change that should in the first instance be thoroughly tested and refined through pilots as a vehicle for learning and development to adapt risk management approaches to the Chinese context. The strategic framework emphasises the need to have a sound scientific basis for decision making, consistent across the different provinces that support early warning and water conservation through demand management and a variety of water saving and education initiatives. The role of SFCDRH needs to be much more proactive and lead a regular review process for monitoring and early warning for drought management, supporting other GHD |TA7261 Strategy for Drought Management | 1 agencies and the provincial levels in preparedness and addressing drought as early as possible. Longer term mitigation through non structural measures must also be incorporated in the SFCDRH activities and those of other agencies if drought is to be management effectively into the more uncertain future. To test and develop the framework, three provinces (Liaoning, Inner Mongolia and Anhui) were selected as targets for theoretical pilots to examine the potential to introduce risk management approaches in existing drought management plans. Liaoning, Inner Mongolia and Anhui present different environments and hydrological situations in relation to drought impacts. All are affected by drought and water scarcity to some degree. Their drought planning processes show a limited ability to use a risk management approach because there is a lack of suitable information and decision support tools to do so. Staff need training and support to become more proactive in thinking and response as there is a lack of understanding about a risk management approach. A comprehensive pilot that establishes the scientific basis for decision-making, trains staffs and commences an integrated approach to drought as part of a wider water demand management is needed for each province. This can then demonstrate the use and value of the risk approach in differing part of China that can be adapted throughout China. It is anticipated that it will take some time and considerable resources to make such a change.
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